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Peer prediction mechanisms incentivize self-interested agents to truthfully report their signals even in the absence of verification by comparing agents’ reports with their peers. We propose two new mechanisms, Source and Target Differential Peer ...

How Bookies Can Outwit Sophisticated Bettors

Sports-betting markets are based entirely on predictions. A bettor has to pick a winning contestant, and a market maker―a bookie―bets on the opponent. As bookies have to take the other side of every bet, it is ...

We study the profit-maximization problem of a market maker in a spread betting market. In this market, the market maker quotes cutoff lines for the outcome of a certain future event as “prices,” and bettors bet on whether the event outcome exceeds the ...

We design a prediction market to recover a complete and fully general probability distribution over a random variable. Traders buy and sellinterval securities that pay $1 if the outcome falls into an interval and $0 otherwise. Our market takes the form ...

Background. Knowledge sharing among the members of an organization is crucial for enhancing the organization’s performance. However, knowing how to motivate and direct members to effectively and efficiently share their relevant private knowledge ...

The spread betting market is a prevalent form of prediction market. In the spread betting market, participants bet on the outcome of a certain future event. The market maker quotes cutoff lines as "prices," and bettors take sides on whether the event ...

This paper proposes a new knowledge-sharing system that introduces an appropriate incentive for sharing valuable private knowledge and acquires high quality knowledge by using the gamification approach. This system is realized through an original ...

The performance of prediction markets depends crucially on the quality of user contribution. A social-media-based prediction market can utilize aspects of social effects to improve users' contribution quality. In this study, we examine the causal effect ...

Prediction markets provide a promising approach for future event prediction. Most existing prediction market approaches are based on auction mechanisms. Despite their theoretical appeal and success in various application settings, these mechanisms ...

Civic Crowdfunding is emerging as a popular means to mobilize funding from citizens for public projects. A popular mechanism deployed on civic crowdfunding platforms is the provision point mechanism, wherein, the total contributions must reach a ...

We consider a setting where in a known future time, a certain continuous random variable will be realized. There is a public prediction that gradually converges to its realized value, and an expert that has access to a more accurate prediction. Our goal ...

We report on a large-scale case study of a combinatorial prediction market. We implemented a back-end pricing engine based on Dudik et al.'s (2012) combinatorial market maker, together with a wizard-like front end to guide users to constructing any of ...

The primary goal of a prediction market is to elicit and aggregate information about some future event of interest. How well this goal is achieved depends on the behavior of self-interested market participants, which are crucially influenced by not only ...

We report on a large-scale case study of a combinatorial prediction market. We implemented a back-end pricing engine based on Dudik et al.'s (2012) combinatorial market maker, together with a wizard-like front end to guide users to constructing any of ...

The primary goal of a prediction market is to elicit and aggregate information about some future event of interest. How well this goal is achieved depends on the behavior of self-interested market participants, which are crucially influenced by not only ...

We propose a general framework for the design of securities markets over combinatorial or infinite state or outcome spaces. The framework enables the design of computationally efficient markets tailored to an arbitrary, yet relatively small, space of ...

This research presents the ongoing results of trading experiments that have been performed on the DAGGRE prediction market. DAGGRE is a research project that aims to improve the forecasting methods of world events using prediction markets, crowdsourcing ...

We present a new automated market maker for providing liquidity across multiple logically interrelated securities. Our approach lies somewhere between the industry standard---treating related securities as independent and thus not transmitting any ...

We present a novel, game theoretic representation called POSGI (partially observable stochastic game with information) for distributed information aggregation using a multi-agent based prediction market model. We then describe a correlated equilibrium (...

Forecasting the outcome of events that will happen in the future is a frequently indulged and important task for humans. Despite the ubiquity of the forecasts, predicting the outcome of future events is a challenging task for humans or even computers - ...

We present a novel representation of the prediction market using a partially observable stochastic game with information (POSGI), that can be used by each trading agent to precisely calculate the state of the market. We then propose that a correlated ...