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The Cost of Developing Large-Scale Software

Author:

R. W. WolvertonAuthors Info & Claims

IEEE Transactions on Computers, Volume 23, Issue 6

Pages 615 - 636

https://doi.org/10.1109/T-C.1974.224002

Published: 01 June 1974 Publication History

Abstract

The work of software cost forecasting falls into two parts. First we make what we call structural forecasts, and then we calculate the absolute dollar-volume forecasts. Structural forecasts describe the technology and function of a software project, but not its size. We allocate resources (costs) over the project's life cycle from the structural forecasts. Judgment, technical knowledge, and econometric research should combine in making the structural forecasts. A methodology based on a 25 X 7 structural forecast matrix that has been used by TRW with good results over the past few years is presented in this paper. With the structural forecast in hand, we go on to calculate the absolute dollar-volume forecasts. The general logic followed in "absolute" cost estimating can be based on either a mental process or an explicit algorithm. A cost estimating algorithm is presented and five tradition methods of software cost forecasting are described: top-down estimating, similarities and differences estimating, ratio estimating, standards estimating, and bottom-up estimating. All forecasting methods suffer from the need for a valid cost data base for many estimating situations. Software information elements that experience has shown to be useful in establishing such a data base are given in the body of the paper. Major pricing pitfalls are identified. Two case studies are presented that illustrate the software cost forecasting methodology and historical results. Topics for further work and study are suggested.

References

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cover image IEEE Transactions on Computers

IEEE Transactions on Computers Volume 23, Issue 6

June 1974

91 pages

ISSN:0018-9340

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Copyright © 1974.

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IEEE Computer Society

United States

Publication History

Published: 01 June 1974

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Cited By

Pan WMing HKim DYang Z(2023)Pride: Prioritizing Documentation Effort Based on a PageRank-Like Algorithm and Simple Filtering RulesIEEE Transactions on Software Engineering10.1109/TSE.2022.317146949:3(1118-1151)Online publication date: 1-Mar-2023
https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1109/TSE.2022.3171469
Rodrigues VDonetti SDamiani F(2019)Certifying delta-oriented programsSoftware and Systems Modeling (SoSyM)10.1007/s10270-018-00704-x18:5(2875-2906)Online publication date: 1-Oct-2019
https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1007/s10270-018-00704-x
Fan JGriffin C(2017)Optimal digital product maintenance with a continuous revenue streamOperations Research Letters10.1016/j.orl.2017.04.00645:3(282-288)Online publication date: 1-May-2017
https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1016/j.orl.2017.04.006
Boehm BValerdi RTaylor RGall HMedvidović N(2011)Impact of software resource estimation research on practiceProceedings of the 33rd International Conference on Software Engineering10.1145/1985793.1985994(1057-1065)Online publication date: 21-May-2011
https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1145/1985793.1985994
Vaucher SSahraoui HSiek JTip F(2007)Do software libraries evolve differently than applications?Proceedings of the 2007 Symposium on Library-Centric Software Design10.1145/1512762.1512771(88-96)Online publication date: 21-Oct-2007
https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1145/1512762.1512771
Delorey DKnutson CChun S(2007)Do Programming Languages Affect Productivity? A Case Study Using Data from Open Source ProjectsProceedings of the First International Workshop on Emerging Trends in FLOSS Research and Development10.1109/FLOSS.2007.5Online publication date: 20-May-2007
https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1109/FLOSS.2007.5
Haapio TAhonen J(2006)A case study on the success of introducing general non-construction activities for project management and planning improvementProceedings of the 7th international conference on Product-Focused Software Process Improvement10.1007/11767718_15(151-165)Online publication date: 12-Jun-2006
https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1007/11767718_15
Burgin MDebnath N(2005)Complexity measures for software engineeringJournal of Computational Methods in Sciences and Engineering10.5555/1411455.14114655:1 Supplement(127-143)Online publication date: 1-Jan-2005
https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.5555/1411455.1411465
Burgin M(2004)Algorithmic complexity of recursive and inductive algorithmsTheoretical Computer Science10.1016/j.tcs.2003.12.003317:1-3(31-60)Online publication date: 4-Jun-2004
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Boehm B(2002)Software engineering economicsSoftware pioneers10.5555/944331.944370(641-686)Online publication date: 1-Jan-2002
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