5.1 Qualitative Analysis of Survey Results
To answer our first research question,
what factors predict one's perception of credibility of a post, we first analyzed participants' open-ended responses to Q1:
How much do you trust this post? (Table
1) to identify their perceptions of credibility. Coding of the results revealed seven levels of perceived credibility (Table
4). The distribution of the perceived credibility is slightly bimodal, where most participants perceived the Facebook posts to be more or less credible (i.e., levels 6 and 7). Ambiguous perceptions (i.e., level 3 being “not sure” or level 4 “slightly”) were less common, which indicated that most participants were fairly certain of their assessments on the credibility of the posts.
To identify the factors explaining one's perception of credibility, we then analyzed participants' open-ended responses to Q2:
What made you trust or distrust a post? (Table
1). Following a qualitative content analysis approach [
21], five experts, who are HCI researchers and are familiar with coding qualitative user responses, each analyzed 300 responses independently and came up with a coding scheme, including the level of perceived credibility and a list of factors. They then consolidated their coding schemes in several iterations. Based on the agreed coding schemes, two experts coded all of the assessments (399 × 3). The coding results achieved a strong agreement (Kripendorff's α = 0.96).
The coding revealed that eight trust factors (potential trust antecedents) affected the participants' perceptions of credibility from their own viewpoints. As shown in Table
5, these eight factors fall into two categories:
personal factors and
message properties. Personal factors were cited more frequently than message properties, and the most cited antecedent was
Personal Knowledge, that is, 56% of the responses cited it as a factor that made a participant trust or distrust a post.
To answer our second main research question—
What factors predict one's willingness to act on a post?—we analyzed the participants' responses to Q3:
Given your perception of the post, do you trust the post enough to take one or more actions below? (Table
1). Of all of the responses, 25.7% indicated their unwillingness to take any actions. The distribution among the rest was:
Share (28%),
Contact (66%), and
Donate (16%). Participants were most unwilling to make a donation, which matched our hypothesis, since the risk was real and immediate (i.e., their donation was taken on the spot). In addition, the participants most likely would need the money since their main goal of coming to Amazon was to earn money by doing micro-tasks. On the other hand, their goal of earning money might have also motivated their willingness for leaving an email for future contact, which might present future earning opportunities.
To discover what made the participants' willingness to act, we analyzed their responses to Q4:
What made you take or not take the actions above? (Table
1). Following a similar approach to analyzing responses to Q2, two coders first read the responses independently and then developed a coding scheme through multiple iterations. Using the agreed-on coding scheme, they then coded all responses. The intercoder reliability tests indicated a strong reliability of the results: Kripendorffs α ranged from 0.77 to 0.85, with an average of 0.82 across all 3 actions. The coding results identified four categories of responses, called
personal motivators, which affected participants' willingness to act on a post from the participants' viewpoints (Table
6).
5.2 Factors Predicting Perceived Credibility
As shown in Table
5, personal factors, such as personal knowledge and experiences, were cited much more frequently than message-related factors. In this section, we explain each factor in more detail and use examples to show how they had explained the participants' perceptions of credibility of a post. We then present the quantified relationships of these factors on one's perception of credibility of a post.
Personal Factors. The first factor related to one's perception of credibility is one's existing personal knowledge (56% responses). Specifically, having prior knowledge related to a given post made the post more believable. For example, one participant mentioned: “Yes, I do believe this tip. I have heard it before….” On the other hand, a lack of knowledge on the topic of a post often led to doubts. For example, one wrote: “I am not sure. I don't know…. I would have to research it more to decide….” Similarly, inconsistencies between one's prior knowledge and the message resulted in distrust: “I have been taught differently. I don't think this post is trustworthy.”
The participants also indicated that personal experience consistent with and relevant to a post's message affected their perceptions of credibility of a post. For example, one commented: “Yes, I believe this health tip. I've done some of my own….” On the other hand, a lack of relevant experience or inconsistencies between one's prior experience and the content of a post impeded trust. For example, one participant stated: “I am not sure… I would have to try it myself…,” while another wrote: “No, I don't believe this… I never experienced it….”
Two other aspects revealed in the coding that affected their perceptions of credibility of a post were
feelings and
inference, that is, participants' preferred ways of reasoning and processing information. In particular, 19% judged the credibility of a post based on their gut feelings or intuition. For example, one wrote: “
This could be true… I have no reason not to believe it,” while the other noted “
I do believe this tip, … I honestly can see how it may work.” Their own “thoughts” guided their belief: “
I think this … unbelievable…” or “
It sounds plausible.” Opposite to the feeling-based judgment, 14% inferred about the credibility of a post. For example, one judged the credibility of a post by reasoning about its potential liability: “
I believe it… If it's not true, someone is going to get their ass sued….”. Just like one's
cognitive style—typical mode of thinking—influences trust in interpersonal relationships [
38], our findings show that one's thinking style also is related to trust in social media messages. This further implies that various cognitive heuristics (e.g., checking the consistency of a message [
41]) may be used to help people better assess the credibility of online information based on their thinking style (see Section
6.1).
Message Properties. In addition to personal factors, the second category of factors mentioned by the participants is related to a post itself, including Message Source, Content Quality, and associated Social Signals. Among these factors, Message Source was the factor most frequently mentioned in the responses. For example, many stated that they trusted a post from Huffington Post, because they knew and trusted Huffington Post: “It was written by the huffington post. They're pretty trustworthy.” On the other hand, many did not trust our entertainment post, which was from a site called The Hollywood Gossip, because they did not know the source and were suspicious of the word “gossip” in the source name. The participants did not trust informal sources either. For example, one stated “I absolutely do not believe this post because the link that is provided in the post is just a mere blog. It is not credible,” while the other responded “I don't believe this … because it is on Facebook, and anybody can post anything on Facebook and make it look legitimate.”
Two other factors, Content Quality and Message Form, were also mentioned by the participants to affect their perceptions of credibility. In our findings, Content Quality referred to the amount of details and evidence provided to substantiate the claims in a post. When a post lacked adequate details, the participants perceived the post to be untrustworthy. For example, one participant did not think a post credible because “It seems like a gross oversimplification.” The quality of the form also impacted perception of credibility of a post. If the form of a post appeared shoddy, such as the use of low-quality images, the participants doubted its credibility: “The information is not trustworthy… the image was not professional.”
In general, we observed that the participants often used negative message properties (about 36% of the time when the participants did not believe a post), such as poor quality in content or message form, to discount their trust in a post. However, they rarely used positive message properties (e.g., a great illustration) except Message Source to endorse their trust in a post. This suggests that message properties alone are insufficient for the participants to judge message credibility.
It is also interesting to note that only 3% of responses suggested that relevant Social Signals (i.e., others' comments on a post) are associated with their perceptions of credibility of the post. One explanation might be that since the comments came from total strangers on Facebook public pages, most of the participants simply did not care much about such social signals. The situation might be different if the social signals came from people whom they knew.
Quantitative Analysis of Factors on Perceived Credibility. We first examined how the eight trust antecedents (Table
5) are associated with perceived credibility. We entered the eight trust antecedents as independent variables in a stepwise regression to predict
Perceived Credibility5 with
Age and
Gender as control variables. We checked for multicollinearity and the VIFs showed it was not a problem. The stepwise regression model revealed that of the eight antecedents, only
Content Quality and
Feelings had a significant but small association with perceived credibility (Table
7, left columns). Std Est is the standardized beta coefficient. Controls of
Age and
Gender were not significant.
We then used a stepwise regression model to predict
Perceived Credibility with 15 psychometric traits (Big 5 personality traits and 10 basic human values), controlling for
Age and
Gender. The VIFs showed that multicollinearity was not a problem. The model resulted in the two human value traits of
Achievement and
Benevolence showing a significant relationship with
Perceived Credibility, again explaining a small amount of variance (Table
7, right columns). Controls of
Age and
Gender were not significant.
Next, we tested a model with
Perceived Credibility as a dependent variable, adding the significant psychometric traits of
Achievement and
Benevolence to the significant trust antecedents of
Feelings and
Content Quality (Table
8), controlling for
Age and
Gender. We used a GLM to build the model. The trust antecedents and Achievement were significant, and Benevolence showed a strong trend for significance. As with the other models,
Age and
Gender are not significant. Adding
Achievement and
Benevolence to the model only slightly improves the adjusted R-square, and this model explains about 8% of the variance for
Perceived Credibility. Since all three models in Tables
7 and
8 used the same dependent variable, we applied a False Discovery Rate correction [
3] to control for the probability that one or more Type I errors could occur.
Summary of Results for RQ1: Perceived Credibility. In summary, we found that perception of credibility is significantly related to both the personal factor of Feelings and the message factor of Content Quality. Adding the psychometric traits of Achievement and Benevolence to the personal and message factors slightly improves the fit of the model. As discussed in the next section, considering various personal factors in addition to message properties can serve as a basis to help design future interactive intelligent systems that foster personalized trust building between message authors and readers.
5.3 Factors Predicting Willingness to Act
As mentioned earlier, four factors, called
personal motivators, extracted from the participants' responses explained their willingness to act on a post (see Table
6). Among these factors,
Benefit was the most often-reported factor by the participants to take an action. For example, one participant who was willing to share the mango post (Figure
1(b)) wrote “
These things are significantly important, I feel that I owe it to the world doing things like these,” while the other stated “
I would probably share this post on my social media because this is what my friends might be interested in.”
Seeing potential benefits is also the top reason why most participants (66%) were willing to leave an email for future contact: “I would appreciate being contacted through email. I'm doing surveys for money and every cent counts.” On the other hand, a lack of benefits was a salient reason for the participants not to take an action. For example, we were puzzled by the participants' low willingness to share a post, especially when they were not required to carry out the actual action. The participants' responses revealed the cause: they saw little benefit to sharing a post on social media. For example, one participant who was unwilling to share the mango post responded “I think that my friends already know this information.” Likewise, another participant who was unwilling to share the post (hugging releases oxytocin) commented: “My friends in particular would most likely not find this particular article useful.”
Cost was always cited as a reason behind people's unwillingness to act. One type of perceived cost was risking one's reputation: “I wouldn't want to share it with my social networks. I would not want my friends and followers to think I was spamming them.” Another type of cost is risking one's privacy. For example, a participant who was unwilling to leave a contact email responded “I will not give out my personal information.” Given the participants' goals on Mechanical Turk and the immediate effect of our Donate action, the most cited cost is financial. For example, many participants who were unwilling to donate stated “I can't donate at this time because I need all the money I can get.”
Similar to Cost, Belief and Habit motivated people more to decline rather than take an action. For example, one participant who was unwilling to share noted “I don't fully believe this post so I wouldn't share on my Facebook page.” Another participant who was unwilling to donate stated “The post sounds like bunk to me. I don't want to donate.” Likewise, Habit also motivated people not to take an action. For example, one participant noted “I would not share this information because I don't usually share health-related information with my followers.” The other who was unwilling to be contacted for further information responded “I don't care about these kinds of posts. So no thanks.”
In summary, our findings suggested that Benefit helps elicit people's actions on social media messages while the other three motivators (Cost, Belief, and Habit) are often used as deterrents for taking any actions. In other words, people would need to see the potential benefits and none of the deterrents before they can act on a piece of online information.
Quantitative Analysis of Personal Motivators on Willingness to Act. We investigated the relationships between the four personal motivators and the participants' willingness to act. We used the four personal motivators (
Benefit, Cost, Belief, Habit) as independent variables to test their relationship with one's willingness to perform each action (
Share, Contact, and
Donate). Because willingness to perform each action was a categorical dependent variable, we used an ordinal regression model,
6 controlling for
Age and
Gender. For all models, the VIFs that showed multicollinearity was not a problem.
Tables
9(a–c) summarize the results. As shown, each model with the four motivators for predicting
Share, Contact, and
Donate was significant, explaining 20%, 12%, and 21% of the variance, respectively. Different motivators showed significance in relation to different actions. In particular, the personal motivators
Benefit and
Habit significantly were related to the
Share action, and
Age group 35–54 was significant.
Cost and
Belief had a significant effect on the
Contact action and both the controls of
Age (25–34) and
Gender were significant. Females were significantly more likely to provide contact information than males (Wald = 3.72, df = 1, p < .05).
Cost, Belief, and
Benefit were significant factors to predict the
Donate action, and control variables of
Age and
Gender were not significant. It is interesting to note that females were more willing to be contacted in our study, opposite to previous findings showing that females guard their private information more tightly [
31].
Quantitative Analysis of Perceived Credibility on Willingness to Act. As mentioned earlier, we hypothesized that one's
perception of credibility of a message is also associated with one's willingness to act on a post with the acceptance of potential risks. We first plotted the relationship more precisely between a person's perception of credibility of a post and willingness to act on the post. For comparison purposes, a person
p's perceived credibility of post
m is normalized between 0 and 1; and willingness to act on a post
m is computed by:
Here, action
ai is the
i-th action,
Willingness() returns 0 or 1, indicating one's willingness to take action
ai. Function
Risk() estimates the risk of taking an action. The higher the risk is, the less likely an action would occur. Thus, the risk can be estimated by the probability of the participants' willingness to take action
a:
By Equation (
2) and our study results, the risk of each action was
Share 1.27,
Contact 0.42, and
Donate 1.85.
Contact is least risky since many participants were willing to take it, while
Donate is most risky as few were willing to take this action.
Based on one's normalized perceived credibility and willingness to act by Equation (
1), we computed two distributions over all person-message pairs. Figure
3 plots the two distributions, which indicate the overall relationship between perception of credibility of a post and willingness to act on the post. While both distributions were bimodal, they were quite different. The distribution of willingness to act was positively skewed, whereas the distribution of perceived credibility was negatively skewed. In other words, many people inflated their expressed perceived credibility of a post since perceptions were purely subjective with no consequences. On the other hand, when actions subjected people to potential risks, it showed a more realistic level of people's willingness to act. Such comparison again shows that perceived credibility of a post alone is inadequate in explaining one's willingness to act on the post in the real world.
Given the above understanding, we then quantified the relationship between perceived credibility and one's willingness to act. We added perceived credibility (7 levels, Table
4) as an independent variable to the four personal motivators to see whether we could improve the fit of the models for each type of action, controlling for Age and Gender. Because the dependent measure of each action was a categorical variable, we used ordinal regression. The results are summarized in Table
10.
For Share, using a Likelihood Ratio test, the addition of Perceived Credibility did not significantly improve the fit of the model compared with a model with personal motivators alone. The controls of Age and Gender were not significant. For Contact, the control variable of Age (25–34) was significant. A Likelihood Ratio test showed that the addition of perceived credibility did not significantly improve the fit of the model compared with a model with personal motivators alone, controlling for Age and Gender. For Donate, Cost and Perceived Credibility were significant and neither Age nor Gender was significant. A Likelihood Ratio test also showed that the addition of Perceived Credibility did not significantly improve the fit of the model compared with a model with personal motivators alone.
Quantitative Analysis of Additional Factors on Willingness to Act. As discussed earlier, factors that significantly impacted perception of credibility were
Content Quality and personal
Feelings,
7 as well as two psychometric traits of
Achievement and
Benevolence (Table
8). To examine the relationships between such factors and willingness to act, we added these factors along with the personal motivators and perceived credibility that showed significant relationships with an action as shown in Table
10. We used an ordinal regression model to predict each type of action, controlling for
Age and
Gender. Multicollinearity was checked for all models and was not a problem. Tables
11(a–c) summarize the results.
A likelihood ration test was used to compare whether the addition of these independent variables in Table
11 improved the fit of the models shown in Table
10. For
Share, the full model in Table
11 showed a less good fit than the best fitting model, which was in Table
9. For
Contact, the model in Table
11 is not as good a fit as the best fitting model shown in Table
9. For
Donate, the model in Table
11 was also not as good a fit as the best fitting model shown in Table
9.
Thus,
Benefit, Habit, and
Perceived Credibility were significantly associated with
Share (model in Table
10), while
Cost and
Belief were significantly associated with
Contact (model in Table
10). The action
Donate was significantly associated with
Cost and
Perceived Credibility in the model in Table
10.
Summary of Results for RQ2: Willingness to Act on a Message Post. Overall, our results suggest that the four personal motivators (Table
6) were significantly associated with willingness to act on a message post. In particular,
Benefit was a salient variable associated with
Share and
Habit was associated with
not taking an action to
Share. Belief and
Cost were inversely associated with taking an action to
Contact. Cost was inversely associated with taking an action to
Donate. Similar to the
Belief motivator,
perceived credibility is associated with a person's willingness to
Share and
Donate. The trait of
Benevolence showed a trend that it was related to one's willingness to
Donate. This result seemed sensible since people high on
Benevolence are concerned with the welfare of others and are more willing to contribute to helping others (Table
3).
As further discussed in Section
6, our findings could help inform developers of intelligent systems to use a combination of factors, including personal motivators and psychometric traits, to predict a user's willingness to take actions in a socio-digital context and potentially persuading or dis-persuading users to act or not to act on a piece of information.