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The long-term box office performance of sequel movies

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Abstract

With a 26-year-long database of nationally distributed movies, we estimate the prevalence and effectiveness of sequels over time, while controlling for other factors that might influence demand. In particular, we examine whether the effectiveness of a strategy increases over time (possibly due to managerial learning) or decreases (possibly because its effectiveness is competed away or because of consumer satiation). After taking into account both supply side and demand side effects by using simultaneous equations, we find that sequels have a positive effect indirectly (i.e., supply side effect) through a significantly larger number of theaters showing such movies compared to non-sequel movies. In terms of direct effect (i.e., demand side effect), sequels do better than non-sequels in generating more attendance in the first week and in total. Parent movies, the movies from which sequels originate, also do better than non-sequels in terms of total attendance and first-week attendance. Interestingly, sequel movies generate less total attendance than parent movies. On the other hand, sequels generate more revenues upfront than parents. We also find that the impact of sequels on first-week attendance has been increasing over time, but the number of sequels released has not. Our follow-up analysis suggests that one reason can be due to the higher (inflation-adjusted) production budget of a sequel than of the original (i.e., the parent) movie possibly leading to a decreasing gross margin for sequels within a movie franchise.

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Notes

  1. When we ran a regression of the number of sequels made each year as a function of a yearly time trend, we found no significant (p < 0.05) relationship with time. For non-sequels, the coefficient of time was significant.

  2. Studies 1–5 in Table 1 used essentially the same sample. However, due to different model specifications and statistical approaches, different results for sequels were reported.

  3. In our sample, on average, sequels ran for 12 weeks, parents of the sequels ran for 15 weeks, and the rest of the movies ran for 10 weeks.

  4. Detailed Hausman test results are available from the authors.

  5. Detailed tables of descriptive statistics are available from the authors.

  6. Detailed test results are available from the authors.

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Acknowledgments

The financial support of the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada is gratefully acknowledged. Helpful comments from Darren Dahl and Josh Eliashberg are much appreciated.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Sauder School of Business, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada

    Tirtha Dhar & Charles B. Weinberg

  2. Rick Hansen Institute, Richmond, BC, Canada

    Guanghui Sun

Authors
  1. Tirtha Dhar
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  2. Guanghui Sun
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  3. Charles B. Weinberg
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Charles B. Weinberg.

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Dhar, T., Sun, G. & Weinberg, C.B. The long-term box office performance of sequel movies. Mark Lett 23, 13–29 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11002-011-9146-1

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