United States Senate elections, 2024
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November 5, 2024 |
Republicans won control of the U.S. Senate, winning a 53-45 majority with two independents as a result of the November 5, 2024 elections.[1]
As a result of the elections, Republicans gained four seats in Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. Democrats gained one seat in Arizona. This was a net change of +4 Republicans, -2 Democrats, and -2 independents.
Heading into the 2024 general election, Democrats had a 47-49 majority with four independents. Three of those independents caucused with the Democratic Party, and one other, Sen. Kyrsten Sinema counted towards the Democratic majority for committee purposes.
Thirty-four of 100 Senate seats were up for election. Thirty-three of those seats were up for regular election, and one[2] was up for a special election. Democrats were defending three Senate seats, in Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia, in states Donald Trump (R) won in the 2020 presidential election. Republicans were not defending any Senate seats in states Joe Biden (D) won in 2020.
Of the seats up for election in 2024, Democrats held 19, Republicans held 11, and independents held four. Eight members of the U.S. Senate did not run for re-election, more than in any year since 2012.
Ballotpedia identified 15 races (41.2%) as general election battlegrounds in 2024. Heading into the elections, Democrats held 11 of those seats, Republicans held three, and independents held one. Republicans won three seats previously held by Democrats in Montana, Ohio, and Pennsylvania and Democrats won the seat in Arizona, previously held by Kyrsten Sinema (I).
Ten seats were open because the incumbent did not run for re-election. Nine incumbents retired from public office and one incumbent ran for another office. Click here to learn more.
Ballotpedia does not include incumbents leaving office early in our analysis of incumbents not running for re-election. For more information about incumbents who left office early or announced resignations, click here.
Two special elections also took place on Nov. 5, 2024. One special election was held to fill the last two years of the six-year term that Sen. Ben Sasse (R-Neb.) was elected to in 2020.[3] The other special election was held to fill the rest of the six-year term that Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) was elected to in 2018. Feinstein died on Sept. 29, 2023. The Senate seat Feinstein held was also up for regular election on Nov. 5, 2024.[4]
Click here for coverage of U.S. Senate elections in 2022.
Click on the links below to jump to the various sections on this page:
- Partisan balance
- 2024 Election results
- Incumbents defeated
- Margins of victory
- Seats up for election
- List of candidates
- Battlegrounds
- Incumbents not running for re-election
- Outside race ratings
- Battleground primaries
- Party committee fundraising
- Special elections
- Political context
- Media analysis
- Congressional approval rating
- Wave elections
Partisan balance
U.S. Senate Partisan Breakdown | |||
---|---|---|---|
Party | As of November 5, 2024 | After the 2024 Election | |
Democratic Party | |||
Republican Party | |||
Independent | |||
Total | |
|
The chart below shows historical partisan breakdown information for the chamber.
Election results, 2024
- See also: Election results, 2024: U.S. Senate
Incumbents defeated in the general election
The following table lists incumbents defeated in the 2024 general election for U.S. Senate.
U.S. Senate incumbents defeated in the 2024 general election | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
State | Incumbent | Election winner | ||||
Montana | Jon Tester | Tim Sheehy | ||||
Ohio | Sherrod Brown | Bernie Moreno | ||||
Pennsylvania | Bob Casey Jr. | David McCormick |
Margins of victory
The average margin of victory for U.S. Senate races was, 16.7 percentage points lower than the 19.8 percentage points average margin in 2022 and the 18.1 percentage points average margin in 2020. The average margin of victory was 12.8 percentage points for Democrats and 20 percentage points for Republicans. This was below the 2022 averages for both parties, which were 16.68 percentage points for Democrats and 22.9 percentage points for Republicans.
The narrowest margin in any U.S. Senate election in 2024 was 0.2 percentage points in Pennsylvania. David McCormick (R) defeated Incumbent Bob Casey Jr. 48.8%-48.6. The largest margin of victory in 2024 was 51 percentage points in Wyoming. Incumbent John Barrasso (R) defeated Scott Morrow (D) 75.1%-24.1%
List of all 2024 U.S. Senate margins of victory
This table shows the margins of victory in U.S. Senate elections on November 5, 2024.
U.S. Senate margins of victory, 2024 | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
State | Votes cast | Winner | Winner votes | Runner-up | Runner-up votes | Margin | Margin (%) |
Arizona | 3,199,898 | Ruben Gallego | 1,600,923 | Kari Lake | 1,528,297 | 72,626 | 2.2% |
California | 7,580,633 | Adam Schiff | 4,534,025 | Steve Garvey | 3,046,608 | 1,487,417 | 19.6% |
Connecticut | 320,164 | Chris Murphy | 182,872 | Matthew Corey | 132,105 | 50,767 | 15.8% |
Delaware | 500,606 | Lisa Blunt Rochester | 283,298 | Eric Hansen | 197,753 | 85,545 | 17.0% |
Florida | 10,757,428 | Rick Scott | 5,977,706 | Debbie Mucarsel-Powell | 4,603,077 | 1,374,629 | 12.8% |
Hawaii | 432,724 | Mazie Hirono | 283,454 | Bob McDermott | 135,761 | 147,693 | 34.1% |
Indiana | 1,494,930 | Jim Banks | 886,283 | Valerie McCray | 570,624 | 315,659 | 21.1% |
Massachusetts | 1,024,309 | Elizabeth Warren | 626,933 | John Deaton | 397,376 | 229,557 | 22.4% |
Maryland | 2,044,316 | Angela Alsobrooks | 1,078,306 | Larry Hogan | 917,883 | 160,423 | 7.8% |
Maine | 799,276 | Angus King | 414,127 | Demi Kouzounas | 274,722 | 139405 | 17.4% |
Michigan | 5,532,533 | Elissa Slotkin | 2,690,225 | Mike Rogers | 2,671,872 | 18,353 | 0.3% |
Minnesota | 1,775,095 | Amy Klobuchar | 1,020,587 | Royce White | 698,488 | 322,099 | 18.2% |
Missouri | 2,176,294 | Josh Hawley | 1,149,665 | Lucas Kunce | 970,058 | 179,607 | 8.2% |
Mississippi | 742,514 | Roger Wicker | 475,377 | Ty Pinkins | 267,137 | 208,240 | 28.0% |
Montana | 543,362 | Tim Sheehy | 289,696 | Jon Tester | 243,986 | 45,710 | 8.4% |
North Dakota | 364,327 | Kevin Cramer | 241,569 | Katrina Christiansen | 121,602 | 119,967 | 32.9% |
Nebraska | 677,158 | Deb Fischer | 354,409 | Dan Osborn | 322,749 | 31,660 | 4.6% |
Nebraska (special election) | 574,387 | Pete Ricketts | 336,614 | Preston Love Jr. | 237,773 | 98,841 | 17.2% |
New Jersey | 2,895,528 | Andrew Kim | 1,561,944 | Curtis Bashaw | 1,274,048 | 287,896 | 9.9% |
New Mexico | 820,164 | Martin Heinrich | 446,554 | Nella Domenici | 373,610 | 72,944 | 8.8% |
Nevada | 1,400,656 | Jacky Rosen | 669,034 | Sam Brown | 650,989 | 18,045 | 1.3% |
New York | 7,322,568 | Kirsten Gillibrand | 4,271,933 | Mike Sapraicone | 3,016,388 | 1,255,545 | 17.1% |
Ohio | 5,514,140 | Bernie Moreno | 2,769,656 | Sherrod Brown | 2,557,598 | 212,058 | 3.8% |
Pennsylvania | 6,960,423 | David McCormick | 3,398,602 | Bob Casey Jr. | 3,382,293 | 16,309 | 0.2% |
Rhode Island | 425,148 | Sheldon Whitehouse | 245,197 | Patricia Morgan | 179,951 | 179,951 | 15.4% |
Tennessee | 2,878,014 | Marsha Blackburn | 1,851,088 | Gloria Johnson | 969,569 | 881,519 | 30.6% |
Texas | 10,374,488 | Ted Cruz | 5,580,601 | Colin Allred | 4,562,874 | 1,017,727 | 9.8% |
Utah | 802,078 | John Curtis | 491,733 | Caroline Gleich | 271,313 | 220,420 | 27.5% |
Virginia | 4,005,814 | Tim Kaine | 2,153,825 | Hung Cao | 301836 | 301,836 | 7.6% |
Vermont | 363,253 | Bernie Sanders | 229,429 | Gerald Malloy | 116,512 | 112,917 | 31.1% |
Washington | 2,562,817 | Maria Cantwell | 1,535,231 | Raul Garcia | 1,027,586 | 507,645 | 19.8% |
Wisconsin | 3,387,208 | Tammy Baldwin | 1,672,550 | Eric Hovde | 1,672,550 | 28,958 | 0.9% |
West Virginia | 617,412 | Jim Justice | 433,428 | Glenn Elliott | 161,538 | 271,890 | 44.0% |
Wyoming | 264,162 | John Barrasso | 198,418 | Scott Morrow | 63,727 | 134,691 | 51.0% |
Seats up for election
There were 33 U.S. Senate seats up for regular election in 2024—10 seats held by Republicans, 19 held by Democrats, and four held by independents who caucus with Democrats. [7]
Two special elections also took place on November 5, 2024. One special election was held to fill the last two years of the six-year term that Ben Sasse (R) was elected to in 2020.[8][9][10] The other special election was held to fill the rest of the six-year term that Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) was elected to in 2018. Feinstein died on Sept. 29. 2023. The Senate seat Feinstein held was also up for regular election on November 5, 2024.[11]
The map and table below shows what seats were up for election and the incumbent heading into the election in each race.
Table last updated: October 24, 2024
Incumbents who did not run for re-election
Eight United States Senators did not seek re-election to their U.S. Senate seats (not including those who left office early):
Incumbents retiring from public office
Retired from public office, 2024 | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Name | Party | State | Date announced | |||
Kyrsten Sinema | Independent | Arizona | March 5, 2024[12] | |||
Joe Manchin | Independent | West Virginia | November 9, 2023[13] | |||
Laphonza Butler | Democrat | California | October 19, 2023[14][15] | |||
Debbie Stabenow | Democrat | Michigan | January 5, 2023[16] | |||
Ben Cardin | Democrat | Maryland | May 1, 2023[17] | |||
Tom Carper | Democrat | Delaware | May 22, 2023[18] | |||
Mitt Romney | Republican | Utah | September 13, 2023[19] |
Incumbents seeking other offices
Ran for governor, 2024 | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Name | Party | State | Date announced | |||
Mike Braun | Republican | Indiana | November 30, 2022[20] |
Battlegrounds
Elections for 34 U.S. Senate seats took place in 2024. Thirty-three of those seats were up for regular election, and one[21] was up for a special election. Ahead of the November election, Democrats had a majority in the U.S. Senate, controlling 51 seats[22] to Republicans' 49.
Ballotpedia identified 15 races as general election battlegrounds in 2024.
These battleground races were selected using the following criteria. For more information on our methodology, click here:
- the results of the 2020 presidential election in each state,
- whether the incumbent was seeking re-election,
- whether the incumbent was serving his or her first term in the U.S. Senate, and
- how the Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections with Nathan Gonzales rated the race.
In addition to the competitiveness data above, races were included if they were particularly compelling or meaningful to the balance of power in governments for other reasons.
In 2022, Ballotpedia identified 12 U.S. Senate battleground races: four Democratic seats and eight Republican seats. Democrats won one Republican-held seat. Republicans won no seats held by Democrats.
Click on the links below to learn more about battleground races of other types:
- U.S. House battlegrounds, 2024
- Gubernatorial battlegrounds, 2024
- Republican Party battleground primaries, 2024
- Democratic Party battleground primaries, 2024
- Top-two and top-four battleground primaries, 2024
The following map displays all states that held U.S. Senate elections in 2024 shaded by the incumbent's or most recent incumbent's political affiliation. Battleground races are highlighted in lighter colors. Hover over a state for more information.
Battleground U.S. Senate elections, 2024 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
State | Incumbent | Open seat? | 2018 margin | 2024 margin | 2020 presidential margin |
Arizona | Kyrsten Sinema | Yes | D+2.4[23] | D+2.2 | D+0.3 |
California | Laphonza Butler | Yes | N/A[24] | D+19.6 | D+29.2 |
Florida | Rick Scott | No | R+0.2 | R+12.8 | R+3.3 |
Maryland | Ben Cardin | Yes | D+34.6 | D+7.8 | D+33.2 |
Michigan | Debbie Stabenow | Yes | D+6.5 | D+0.3 | D+2.8 |
Montana | Jon Tester | No | D+3.5 | R+8.4 | R+16.4 |
Nebraska | Deb Fischer | No | R+19.1 | R+4.6 | R+19 |
Nevada | Jacky Rosen | No | D+5 | D+1.3 | D+2.4 |
New Jersey | Bob Menendez Sr. | Yes | D+11.2 | D+9.9 | D+15.9 |
New Mexico | Martin Heinrich | No | D+10.8 | D+8.8 | D+15.9 |
Ohio | Sherrod Brown | No | D+6.8 | R+3.8 | R+8.1 |
Pennsylvania | Bob Casey | No | D+13.1 | R+0.2 | D+1.2 |
Texas | Ted Cruz | No | R+2.6 | R+9.8 | R+5.6 |
Virginia | Tim Kaine | No | D+16 | D+7.6 | 10.1 |
Wisconsin | Tammy Baldwin | No | D+10.8 | D+0.9 | D+0.7 |
Outside race ratings
The following table compared U.S. Senate race ratings from The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, Decision Desk HQ and The Hill, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball prior to the November 2024 elections.
List of candidates
The table below contains a list of all candidates for the U.S. Senate in 2024. The table is fully searchable by candidate, party and candidacy status. Depending on the size of your screen, you'll either see a menu to the left of the table or an arrow at the top right corner, which you can use to select a state.
Seats that changed party hands in 2018
- See also: United States Senate elections, 2018
In 2018—the last time these 33 seats were up for election—six seats changed party hands. Republicans picked up four seats and Democrats picked up two seats.
Senate seats that changed party hands, 2018 | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
State | Pre-election incumbent | 2018 winner | Margin of victory (percentage points) | |||
Arizona | Jeff Flake | Kyrsten Sinema[25] | 2.4 | |||
Florida | Bill Nelson | Rick Scott | 0.2 | |||
Indiana | Joe Donnelly | Mike Braun | 5.9 | |||
Missouri | Claire McCaskill | Josh Hawley | 5.8 | |||
North Dakota | Heidi Heitkamp | Kevin Cramer | 10.8 | |||
Nevada | Dean Heller | Jacky Rosen | 5 |
Battleground primaries
- See also: U.S. Senate battleground primaries, 2024
Democratic Party battleground primaries
There were 2 U.S. Senate Democratic battleground primaries in 2024.
- United States Senate election in Maryland, 2024 (May 14 Democratic primary)
- United States Senate election in Texas, 2024 (March 5 Democratic primary)
The following map shows each state with a Democratic battleground primary for U.S. Senate in 2024. Hover over or tap a state to view the incumbent's name.
Republican Party battleground primaries
There were 7 U.S. Senate Republican battleground primaries in 2024.
- United States Senate election in Arizona, 2024 (July 30 Republican primary)
- United States Senate election in Indiana, 2024 (May 7 Republican primary)
- United States Senate election in Michigan, 2024 (August 6 Republican primary)
- United States Senate election in Ohio, 2024 (March 19 Republican primary)
- United States Senate election in Utah, 2024 (June 25 Republican primary)
- United States Senate election in Virginia, 2024 (June 18 Republican primary)
- United States Senate election in West Virginia, 2024 (May 14 Republican primary)
The following map shows each state with a Republican battleground primary for U.S. Senate in 2024. Hover over or tap a state to view the incumbent's name.
Top-two and top-four battleground primaries
There was one U.S. Senate top-two or top-four battleground primary in 2024:
Party committee fundraising
DSCC
- See also: Party committee fundraising, 2023-2024
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) reported the following fundraising amounts for the 2023-24 election cycle:
Monthly fundraising for the DSCC for the 2023-24 election cycle | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Month (Dates covered) |
Total receipts | Total disbursements | Cash on hand (end of month) | Debts owed (end of month) | FEC document |
Post-General 2024 (October 17-November 25, 2024) |
$28,235,189.72 | $50,272,848.78 | $15,267,217.59 | $20,000,000.00 | Filing |
Pre-General 2024 (October 1-16, 2024) |
$40,241,985.42 | $40,335,024.52 | $37,304,876.65 | $20,000,000.00 | Filing |
October 2024 (September 1-30, 2024) |
$28,073,337.85 | $37,628,622.27 | $37,397,915.75 | $0.00 | Filing |
September 2024 (August 1-31, 2024) |
$19,189,774.30 | $31,569,714.51 | $46,953,200.17 | $0.00 | Filing |
August 2024 (July 1-31, 2024) |
$14,866,600.74 | $8,639,158.20 | $59,333,140.38 | $0.00 | Filing |
July 2024 (June 1-30, 2024) |
$12,107,758.55 | $7,312,788.12 | $53,105,697.84 | $0.00 | Filing |
June 2024 (May 1-31, 2024) |
$10,642,216.67 | $6,655,375.60 | $48,310,727.41 | $0.00 | Filing |
May 2024 (April 1-30, 2024) |
$9,332,114.63 | $6,017,825.97 | $44,323,886.34 | $0.00 | Filing |
April 2024 (March 1-31, 2024) |
$13,508,962.18 | $4,410,244.43 | $41,009,597.68 | $0.00 | Filing |
March 2024 (February 1-29, 2024) |
$9,511,330.21 | $4,645,296.24 | $31,910,879.93 | $0.00 | Filing |
February 2024 (January 1-31, 2024) |
$9,720,714.23 | $3,986,420.22 | $27,044,845.96 | $0.00 | Filing |
Year-End 2023 (December 1-31, 2023) |
$7,972,504.39 | $3,774,405.87 | $21,310,551.95 | $0.00 | Filing |
December 2023 (November 1-30, 2023) |
$5,498,388.27 | $3,730,228.46 | $17,112,453.43 | $0.00 | Filing |
November 2023 (October 1-31, 2023) |
$5,315,869.17 | $4,079,837.28 | $15,344,293.62 | $0.00 | Filing |
October 2023 (September 1-30, 2023) |
$6,177,728.41 | $2,766,398.19 | $14,108,261.73 | $0.00 | Filing |
September 2023 (August 1-31, 2023) |
$4,992,020.36 | $3,663,267.72 | $10,696,931.51 | $0.00 | Filing |
August 2023 (July 1-31, 2023) |
$5,157,126.37 | $3,222,330.20 | $9,368,178.87 | $0.00 | Filing |
July 2023 (June 1-30, 2023) |
$7,427,497.79 | $7,315,614.65 | $7,433,382.70 | $0.00 | Filing |
June 2023 (May 1-31, 2023) |
$5,918,384.97 | $7,088,848.36 | $7,321,499.56 | $3,000,000.00 | Filing |
May 2023 (April 1-30, 2023) |
$6,186,012.21 | $7,280,755.25 | $8,491,962.95 | $7,000,000.00 | Filing |
April 2023 (March 1-31, 2023) |
$9,459,749.27 | $7,882,490.39 | $9,586,705.99 | $11,000,000.00 | Filing |
March 2023 (Feb. 1-28, 2023) |
$5,542,819.98 | $5,449,998.25 | $8,009,447.11 | $15,000,000.00 | Filing |
February 2023 (Jan. 1-31, 2023) |
$4,673,631.39 | $5,352,223.88 | $7,916,625.38 | $18,000,000.00 | Filing |
NRSC
- See also: Party committee fundraising, 2023-2024
The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) reported the following fundraising amounts for the 2023-24 election cycle:
Monthly fundraising for the NRSC for the 2023-24 election cycle | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Month (Dates covered) |
Total receipts | Total disbursements | Cash on hand (end of month) | Debts owed (end of month) | FEC document |
Post-General 2024 (October 17-November 25, 2024) |
$28,012,304.32 | $42,024,616.83 | $5,781,809.70 | $17,000,000.00 | Filing |
Pre-General 2024 (October 1-16, 2024) |
$29,750,048.68 | $31,024,731.18 | $19,794,122.21 | $17,000,000.00 | Filing |
October 2024 (September 1-30, 2024) |
$30,713,278.44 | $53,253,641.12 | $21,068,804.71 | $0.00 | Filing |
September 2024 (August 1-31, 2024) |
$19,140,179.03 | $26,542,619.98 | $43,609,167.39 | $0.00 | Filing |
August 2024 (July 1-31, 2024) |
$17,006,684.74 | $14,301,144.12 | $51,011,608.34 | $0.00 | Filing |
July 2024 (June 1-30, 2024) |
$18,526,967.69 | $11,223,941.80 | $48,306,067.72 | $0.00 | Filing |
June 2024 (May 1-31, 2024) |
$12,363,159.55 | $9,360,646.45 | $41,003,041.83 | $0.00 | Filing |
May 2024 (April 1-30, 2024) |
$13,153,581.64 | $11,693,870.31 | $38,000,528.73 | $0.00 | Filing |
April 2024 (March 1-31, 2024) |
$18,296,197.19 | $6,561,007.14 | $36,540,817.40 | $0.00 | Filing |
March 2024 (February 1-29, 2024) |
$13,140,404.43 | $6,527,476.89 | $24,805,627.35 | $0.00 | Filing |
February 2024 (January 1-31, 2024) |
$10,828,320.12 | $7,004,624.34 | $18,192,699.81 | $0.00 | Filing |
Year-End 2023 (December 1-31, 2023) |
$9,722,094.10 | $3,075,142.77 | $14,369,004.03 | $0.00 | Filing |
December 2023 (November 1-30, 2023) |
$6,020,717.63 | $5,263,802.25 | $7,722,052.70 | $0.00 | Filing |
November 2023 (October 1-31, 2023) |
$5,359,549.01 | $6,564,098.06 | $6,965,137.32 | $0.00 | Filing |
October 2023 (September 1-30, 2023) |
$8,104,492.54 | $6,427,702.98 | $8,169,686.37 | $500,000.00 | Filing |
September 2023 (August 1-31, 2023) |
$5,028,592.35 | $6,799,472.85 | $6,492,896.81 | $2,900,000.00 | Filing |
August 2023 (July 1-31, 2023) |
$5,423,862.47 | $6,645,063.69 | $8,263,777.31 | $4,250,000.00 | Filing |
July 2023 (June 1-30, 2023) |
$7,755,495.96 | $6,835,894.90 | $9,484,978.53 | $6,250,000.00 | Filing |
June 2023 (May 1-31, 2023) |
$6,512,464.45 | $6,837,230.80 | $8,565,377.47 | $7,750,000.00 | Filing |
May 2023 (April 1-30, 2023) |
$6,231,654.08 | $5,397,762.21 | $8,890,143.82 | $10,750,000.00 | Filing |
April 2023 (March 1-31, 2023) |
$7,815,097.81 | $8,119,969.57 | $8,056,251.95 | $12,750,000.00 | Filing |
March 2023 (Feb. 1-28, 2023) |
$5,490,474.62 | $5,992,200.52 | $8,361,123.71 | $16,350,000.00 | Filing |
February 2023 (Jan. 1-31, 2023) |
$4,511,554.07 | $3,826,440.31 | $8,862,849.61 | $20,000,000.00 | Filing |
Special elections
Special elections to United States Senate are often required in the event of vacancies. This table lists special Senate elections from 2023 to 2024.
Results of special elections to the 118th Congress (Senate) | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Race | Election date | Incumbent | Winner | Election MOV | Previous election MOV | 2020 Presidential election MOV (statewide)[26] |
California Senate | November 5, 2024 | Dianne Feinstein | Adam Schiff | D+18.6 | D+8.4 | D+29[27] |
Nebraska Senate | November 5, 2024 | Ben Sasse | Pete Ricketts | R+17.2 | R+38.3 | R+19[28] |
Historical special election data
Special elections, 2013-2024
From 2013 to 2024, 80 special elections to the United States Congress were called during the 113th through 118th Congresses. During that time, special elections were called for 29 seats vacated by Democrats and 51 vacated by Republicans.
The table below details how many congressional seats changed parties as the result of a special election between 2013 and 2024. The numbers on the left side of the table reflect how many vacant seats were originally held by each party, while the numbers on the right side of the table show how many vacant seats each party won in special elections.
Congressional special election vacancies and results, 113th Congress to 118th Congress | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Congress | Total elections held | Vacancies before elections | Seats held after elections | Net change | ||
Democrats | Republicans | Democrats | Republicans | |||
118th Congress | 13 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 6 | +1D, -1R |
117th Congress | 17 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 10 | No change |
116th Congress | 10 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 6 | +1D, -1R |
115th Congress | 17 | 4 | 13 | 8 | 9 | +4 D, -4 R |
114th Congress | 7 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 5 | No change |
113th Congress | 16 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 9 | No change |
Averages | 13.33 | 4.83 | 8.5 | 6.67 | 7.5 | N/A |
U.S. Senate special election partisan change from special elections, 113th Congress to 118th Congress | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Party | As of special election | After special election | ||||
Democrats | 5 | 8 | ||||
Republicans | 7 | 4 | ||||
Total | 12 | 12 |
U.S. House special election partisan change from special elections, 113th Congress to 118th Congress | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Party | As of special election | After special election | ||||
Democrats | 20 | 23 | ||||
Republicans | 39 | 36 | ||||
Total | 59 | 59 |
Special elections, 1986-2012
The table below presents the results of special elections to Congress from 1986 to 2012. Contact Ballotpedia at editor@ballotpedia.org for access to earlier data.
Results of special elections to Congress (1986-2012) | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Election cycle | Total special elections | U.S. House elections | Seats changing partisan control | U.S. Senate elections | Seats changing partisan control | |
2011-2012 | 11 | 11 | None | None | None | |
2009-2010 | 15 | 10 | 3 (2 Democratic gains; 1 Republican gain) | 5 | 2 (all Republican gains) | |
2007-2008 | 14 | 12 | 3 (2 Republican gains; 1 Democratic gain) | 2 | None | |
2005-2006 | 12 | 12 | 3 (all Democratic gains) | None | None | |
2003-2004 | 6 | 6 | None | None | None | |
2001-2002 | 6 | 5 | 2 (all Democratic gains) | 1 | 1 (Republican gain) | |
1999-2000 | 9 | 8 | 1 (Republican gain) | 1 | 1 (Democratic gain) | |
1997-1998 | 3 | 3 | None | None | None | |
1995-1996 | 11 | 9 | 1 (Republican gain) | 2 | 1 (Democratic gain) | |
1993-1994 | 9 | 6 | 1 (Republican gain) | 3 | 3 (all Republican gains) | |
1991-1992 | 10 | 7 | 2 (all Republican gains) | 3 | 1 (Democratic gain) | |
1989-1990 | 10 | 8 | 1 (Democratic gain) | 2 | None | |
1987-1988 | 12 | 12 | 3 (2 Democratic gains; 1 Republican gain) | None | None | |
1985-1986 | 8 | 8 | 1 (Republican gain) | None | None | |
Total | 136 | 117 | 21 (11 Democratic gains; 10 Republican gains) | 19 | 9 (6 Republican gains; 3 Democratic gains) |
Political context
Presidential election results in 2024 Senate states
The following table shows the 2024 presidential election margin of victory in percentage points for each state with a Senate election in 2024. Click [show] on the right to expand the table.
2024 Senate elections | ||
---|---|---|
State | Pre-election incumbent | 2024 presidential margin of victory |
Arizona | Kyrsten Sinema | Trump + 5.5 |
California | Laphonza Butler | Harris + 20.7 |
Connecticut | Christopher Murphy | Harris + 14.5 |
Delaware | Thomas Carper | Harris + 14.7 |
Florida | Rick Scott | Trump + 13.1 |
Hawaii | Mazie Hirono | Harris + 23.1 |
Indiana | Mike Braun | Trump + 18.9 |
Massachusetts | Elizabeth Warren | Harris + 24.8 |
Maryland | Benjamin Cardin | Harris + 27.9 |
Maine | Angus King | Harris + 6.9 |
Michigan | Debbie Stabenow | Trump + 1.4 |
Minnesota | Amy Klobuchar | Harris + 4.2 |
Missouri | Josh Hawley | Trump + 18.4 |
Mississippi | Roger Wicker | Trump + 24.3 |
Montana | Jon Tester | Trump + 19.9 |
North Dakota | Kevin Cramer | Trump + 36.5 |
Nebraska | Deb Fischer | Trump + 20.5 |
New Jersey | Robert Menendez | Harris + 5.8 |
New Mexico | Martin Heinrich | Harris + 6.0 |
Nevada | Jacky Rosen | Trump + 3.1 |
New York | Kirsten Gillibrand | Harris + 11.8 |
Ohio | Sherrod Brown | Trump + 11.3 |
Pennsylvania | Robert Casey | Trump + 1.8 |
Rhode Island | Sheldon Whitehouse | Harris + 13.7 |
Tennessee | Marsha Blackburn | Trump + 29.7 |
Texas | Ted Cruz | Trump + 13.9 |
Utah | Mitt Romney | Trump + 21.4 |
Virginia | Tim Kaine | Harris + 5.2 |
Vermont | Bernard Sanders | Harris + 31.5 |
Washington | Maria Cantwell | Harris + 18.5 |
Wisconsin | Tammy Baldwin | Trump + 0.9 |
West Virginia | Joe Manchin | Trump + 41.9 |
Wyoming | John Barrasso | Trump + 45.8 |
Senator's party vs. governor's party
In eight states with Senate seats up for election in 2024, the seat going into the election was held by a senator of a different party than the governor. Four seats held by Democratic senators in states with Republican governors were up. Four seats held by independents were up. No seats held by Republican senators in states with Democratic governors were up.
Senator's vs. Governor's party, 2022 | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
State | Pre-election Senate incumbent | Last election MoV[40] | Pre-election Governor | Last election MoV[40] | ||
Arizona | Kyrsten Sinema | 2.4 | Katie Hobbs | 4.7 | ||
Maine | Angus King | 19.1 | Janet T. Mills | 42.4 | ||
Montana | Jon Tester | 3.5 | Greg Gianforte | 12.8 | ||
Nevada | Jacky Rosen | 5.0 | Joe Lombardo | 1.5 | ||
Ohio | Sherrod Brown | 6.8 | Mike DeWine | 25.0 | ||
Virginia | Tim Kaine | 16.0 | Glenn Youngkin | 2.0 | ||
Vermont | Bernie Sanders | 39.9 | Phil Scott | 47.0 | ||
West Virginia | Joe Manchin | 3.3 | Jim Justice | 33.3 |
States with senators from different parties
Seven states had senators from different parties in the 118th Congress: Arizona, Maine, Montana, Ohio, Vermont, West Virginia, Wisconsin. Three of those states, Montana, Ohio, and Wisconsin had one Democratic and one Republican senator. Arizona and Vermont each had one Democratic senator and one independent senator, and West Virginia and Maine had one Republican senator and one independent senator.
2022 election party changes
In the 2022 Senate election cycle, Democrats flipped one seat.
- John Fetterman (D) defeated Mehmet Oz (R) in Pennsylvania.
2020 election party changes
In the 2020 Senate election cycle, Democrats flipped four seats and Republicans flipped one:
- Tommy Tuberville (R) defeated incumbent Doug Jones (D) in Alabama.
- Mark Kelly (D) defeated incumbent Martha McSally (R) in Arizona's special election.
- John Hickenlooper (D) defeated incumbent Cory Gardner (R) in Colorado.
- Raphael Warnock (D) defeated Kelly Loeffler (R) in Georgia's special election.
- Jon Ossoff (D) defeated David Perdue (R) in Georgia.
2018 election party changes
In the 2018 Senate election cycle, Republicans flipped four seats and Democrats flipped two.
- Kyrsten Sinema (D)[41] defeated Martha McSally (R) in Arizona.
- Rick Scott (R) defeated incumbent Bill Nelson (D) in Florida.
- Mike Braun (R) defeated incumbent Joe Donnelly (D) in Indiana
- Josh Hawley (R) defeated incumbent Claire McCaskill (D) in Missouri
- Kevin Cramer (R) defeated incumbent Heidi Heitkamp (D) in North Dakota.
- Jacky Rosen (D) defeated incumbent Dean Heller (R) in Nevada.
Media analysis of 2024 U.S. Senate elections
Effect of split-ticket voting
“ |
Senate Democrats may have lost their majority this cycle, but they did something that the party had never done in the age of Trump: win multiple Senate races in states the former and soon-to-be president carried. The 2024 elections saw four Trump-won states also elect Democratic senators: Arizona, Nevada, Michigan and Wisconsin. In the previous two presidential cycles, Democrats had never achieved this feat. In fact, since 2016, only one senator — Republican Susan Collins of Maine — won reelection in 2020 even as Joe Biden won her state. She outran Trump that year by seven points. That’s the same amount Jon Tester was able to outpace Harris by in Montana this year, proving that may be the modern max for any candidate. If every state had once again gone the same way as the presidential contest, Republicans would have won a 57-seat majority instead of their 53-seat one. That makes a Democratic resurgence in 2026 or in 2028 more plausible — though that’s still a tall order given the seats Democrats need to defend.[42] |
” |
—Jessica Taylor, The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter (November 19, 2024)[43] |
“ |
Ultimately, Democrats’ early money advantage and ability to define their GOP opponents may have been the crucial element. In every single battleground Senate race, the Republican candidate underperformed Trump’s margins and vote share, proving that the once-and-future president’s unique coalition isn’t automatically transferable to other downballot candidates — a dynamic evidenced in the 2018 and 2022 midterms as well. [42] |
” |
—Jessica Taylor, The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter (November 19, 2024)[44] |
“ |
Even as President-elect Donald Trump swept every swing state, four of those battlegrounds are sending Democrats to the Senate. That’s the highest number of Senate-presidential ticket splits in 12 years, and a warning sign for Republicans as they try to protect and grow their ranks in 2026.[42] |
” |
—Ally Mutnick and Ursula Perano, Politico (November 12)[45] |
“ |
Sens. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) and Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.) and Reps. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) and Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) won even as Trump swept their states. Two major reasons: Trump voters splitting their tickets for Democratic Senate candidates or skipping the Senate races entirely.[42] |
” |
—Ally Mutnick and Ursula Perano, Politico (November 12)[46] |
“ |
Four states that Republican Donald Trump carried in this month’s presidential election also elected Democratic senators. That may not seem like a lot, but it’s twice as many “mismatches” between states’ presidential and U.S. Senate results as in all Senate elections held in 2020, 2021 and 2022 combined. ...No states had mismatches in the other direction, electing Republican senators but picking Democrat Kamala Harris for president.[42] |
” |
—Drew DeSilver, Pew Research Center (November 26, 2024)[47] |
Effect of campaign spending
“ |
The six presidential swing states Trump flipped this year have seen 19 Senate races since his first election. Republicans won just two of them: Sen. Ron Johnson’s 2022 reelection in Wisconsin and, now, McCormick. One big reason for McCormick’s swing-state success: money. He is the former CEO of the world’s largest hedge fund, boasting both deep personal wealth and a network of connected donors. McCormick’s allies formed a super PAC that spent over $50 million on his behalf. National Republicans spent even more. The race received more GOP spending than any Senate race beyond Ohio. Other Republicans did not have that advantage. In Nevada and Wisconsin, the GOP was outspent in advertising by $20 to 25 million, according to the tracking firm AdImpact. In Arizona, it was $66 million.[42] |
” |
—Ally Mutnick and Ursula Perano, Politico (November 12)[48] |
Congressional approval rating
Results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. EST and aggregated from the most recent polls from the sources listed in the methodology section below. Think we're missing something? Email us.
The congressional approval rating indicates public satisfaction in the job performance of the members of the United States Congress. It is the percentage of people polled who responded favorably toward the work of the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives.
Wave elections
- See also: Wave elections (1918-2016)
In a July 2018 report, Ballotpedia defined wave elections as the 20 percent of elections in the last 100 years resulting in the greatest seat swings against the president's party. U.S. Senate waves from 1918 to 2016 are listed in the table below.
U.S. Senate wave elections | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | President | Party | Election type | Senate seats change | Senate majority[49] | |
1932 | Hoover | R | Presidential | -13 | D (flipped) | |
1958 | Eisenhower | R | Second midterm | -12 | D | |
1980 | Carter | D | Presidential | -11 | R (flipped) | |
1946 | Truman | D | First midterm | -10 | R (flipped) | |
1942 | Roosevelt | D | Third midterm | -9 | D | |
2014 | Obama | D | Second midterm | -9 | R (flipped) | |
1986 | Reagan | R | Second midterm | -8 | D (flipped) | |
2008 | George W. Bush | R | Presidential | -8 | D | |
1926 | Coolidge | R | First midterm[50] | -7 | R | |
1930 | Hoover | R | First midterm | -7 | R |
See also
- United States Congress elections, 2024
- United States House of Representatives elections, 2024
- United States Congress
- United States Senate
- United States House of Representatives
- 118th United States Congress
External links
Election coverage by office
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Footnotes
- ↑ Two independents-Sens. Angus King and Bernie Sanders-caucus with the Democratic Party.
- ↑ This number does not include the special election for a Senate seat in California, as that seat was also up for regular election.
- ↑ Siouxland News, "Nebraska's Ben Sasse resigning from US Senate," December 5, 2022
- ↑ Associated Press, "Sen. Dianne Feinstein of California, trailblazer and champion of liberal priorities, dies at age 90," September 29, 2023
- ↑ 5.0 5.1 Three independents caucused with the Democratic Party. Another independent, Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, counted toward the Democratic majority for committee purposes.
- ↑ 6.0 6.1 Two independents caucus with the Democratic Party.
- ↑ The map below also includes the seat held by Sen. Pete Ricketts (R-Neb.). That seat is up for special election in 2024.
- ↑ Tampa Bay Times, "Sen. Ben Sasse chosen as 13th UF president in unanimous vote of trustees," November 1, 2022
- ↑ Fox 42, "Sen. Ben Sasse has been confirmed as President of the University of Florida," November 9, 2022
- ↑ Siouxland News, "Nebraska's Ben Sasse resigning from US Senate," December 5, 2022
- ↑ Associated Press, "Sen. Dianne Feinstein of California, trailblazer and champion of liberal priorities, dies at age 90," Sept. 29, 2023
- ↑ NBC News, "Independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema will not run for re-election in Arizona," March 5, 2024
- ↑ The Hill, "Manchin won’t seek reelection in West Virginia," November 9, 2023
- ↑ Laphonza Butler, "Sen. Laphonza Butler not running in 2024 after filling Dianne Feinstein's seat," October 19, 2023
- ↑ Butler was appointed to her Senate seat on Oct. 1, 2023, to fill the vacancy left by the death of Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D). Feinstein had previously announced her retirement from public office.
- ↑ Debbie Stabenow, "Senator Stabenow Announces She Will Not Seek Re-Election in 2024," January 5, 2023
- ↑ Politico, "Cardin not running for reelection," May 1, 2023
- ↑ Washington Post, "Democratic Sen. Tom Carper of Delaware won't seek reelection, opening up seat in liberal state," May 22, 2023
- ↑ Washington Post, "Mitt Romney says he will not seek a second term in the Senate," September 13, 2023
- ↑ Politico, "Braun to run for Indiana governor, opening Senate seat in 2024," November 30, 2022
- ↑ This number does not include the special election for a Senate seat in California, as that seat is also up for regular election.
- ↑ This number includes three independents
- ↑ Sinema won in 2018 as a Democrat.
- ↑ Democratic incumbent Sen. Dianne Feinstein defeated Democrat Kevin De Leon in the general election by a margin of 8.4%.
- ↑ Sen. Sinema changed her partisan affiliation from Democrat to Independent after the 2022 elections.
- ↑ 270towin, "Historical Timeline," accessed March 25, 2022
- ↑ 270towin, "California," accessed October 17, 2023
- ↑ 270towin, "Nebraska," accessed March 7, 2023
- ↑ Both general election candidates were Republicans.
- ↑ This race was unopposed.
- ↑ 31.0 31.1 Both general election candidates were Democrats.
- ↑ Lamb won by a margin of 0.4 percentage points.
- ↑ Wild won by a margin of 0.2 percentage points.
- ↑ The state Board of Elections declined to certify the results of the 2018 election following allegations of absentee ballot fraud.
- ↑ Collins won by 0.3 percentage points.
- ↑ This special election was called to fill the vacancy left by 2020 Congressman-elect Luke Letlow (R), who died before being sworn in to Congress.
- ↑ Runoff MOV between two Republican candidates.
- ↑ Runoff MOV between two Democratic candidates.
- ↑ Runoff MOV between two Republican candidates.
- ↑ 40.0 40.1 Margin of victory
- ↑ Sinema announced that she was leaving the Democratic Party on December 9, 2022.
- ↑ 42.0 42.1 42.2 42.3 42.4 42.5 Note: This text is quoted verbatim from the original source. Any inconsistencies are attributable to the original source.
- ↑ [https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/senate/senate-overview/what-was-behind-return-senate-split-ticket-voting The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, "What Was Behind the Return of Senate Split-Ticket Voting," November 19, 2024
- ↑ [https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/senate/senate-overview/what-was-behind-return-senate-split-ticket-voting The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, "What Was Behind the Return of Senate Split-Ticket Voting," November 19, 2024
- ↑ Politico, "Republicans won big in the Senate. A warning lurks in the purple states." November 12, 2024
- ↑ Politico, "Republicans won big in the Senate. A warning lurks in the purple states." November 12, 2024
- ↑ Pew Research Center, "2024 elections show more partisan splits between states’ presidential and Senate votes than in recent past," November 26, 2024
- ↑ Politico, "Republicans won big in the Senate. A warning lurks in the purple states." November 12, 2024
- ↑ Denotes the party that had more seats in the U.S. Senate following the election.
- ↑ Calvin Coolidge's (R) first term began in August 1923 after the death of President Warren Harding (R), who was first elected in 1920. Before he had his first midterm in 1926, Coolidge was re-elected as president in 1924.
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