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Multi-scale predictions of massive conifer mortality due to chronic temperature rise

Nature Climate Change volume 6, pages 295–300 (2016)Cite this article

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An Addendum to this article was published on 26 October 2016

This article has been updated

Abstract

Global temperature rise and extremes accompanying drought threaten forests1,2 and their associated climatic feedbacks3,4. Our ability to accurately simulate drought-induced forest impacts remains highly uncertain5,6 in part owing to our failure to integrate physiological measurements, regional-scale models, and dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). Here we show consistent predictions of widespread mortality of needleleaf evergreen trees (NET) within Southwest USA by 2100 using state-of-the-art models evaluated against empirical data sets. Experimentally, dominant Southwest USA NET species died when they fell below predawn water potential (Ψpd) thresholds (April–August mean) beyond which photosynthesis, hydraulic and stomatal conductance, and carbohydrate availability approached zero. The evaluated regional models accurately predicted NET Ψpd, and 91% of predictions (10 out of 11) exceeded mortality thresholds within the twenty-first century due to temperature rise. The independent DGVMs predicted ≥50% loss of Northern Hemisphere NET by 2100, consistent with the NET findings for Southwest USA. Notably, the global models underestimated future mortality within Southwest USA, highlighting that predictions of future mortality within global models may be underestimates. Taken together, the validated regional predictions and the global simulations predict widespread conifer loss in coming decades under projected global warming.

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Figure 1: Observations and theoretical drivers of increasing conifer mortality.
Figure 2: Predawn Ψ measurements are strongly correlated with the mechanisms of mortality6.
Figure 3: Predictions of climate and forest mortality for Southwestern USA to AD 2100.
Figure 4: Dynamic global vegetation models predictions of NET percentage losses between 2000 and 2100.

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Change history

  • 07 October 2016

    This Letter has an addendum associated with it, for details see pdf.

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Acknowledgements

This work was financially supported by the Department of Energy, Office of Science, by Los Alamos National Lab’s Lab Directed Research and Development programme, by NSF-EAR-0724958 and NSF-EF-1340624, and also by ANR-13-AGRO-MACACC, and NSF-IOS-1549959, by the Department of Agriculture AFRI-NIFA programme, by the U.S.G.S. Climate and Land Use Program, and by a National Science Foundation grant to the University of New Mexico for Long Term Ecological Research.

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Author notes

  1. X. Jiang

    Present address: Present address: Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine 92697, USA.,

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Earth and Environmental Sciences Division, MS-J495, Los Alamos National Lab, Los Alamos, New Mexico 87545, USA

    N. G. McDowell, A. P. Williams, C. Xu, L. T. Dickman, S. Sevanto & J. D. Muss

  2. Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, New York 10964, USA

    A. P. Williams

  3. Biology Department, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, New Mexico 87131, USA

    W. T. Pockman, R. Pangle, J. Limousin & J. Plaut

  4. Department of Geography, University at Buffalo, Buffalo, New York 14260, USA

    D. S. Mackay

  5. UMR 1391 ISPA, INRA-Bordeaux Sciences Agro, Villenave d’Ornon 33140, France

    J. Ogee & J. C. Domec

  6. Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina 27708, USA

    J. C. Domec

  7. US Geological Survey, Fort Collins Science Center, Jemez Mountains Field Station, Los Alamos, New Mexico 87544, USA

    C. D. Allen

  8. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado 80305, USA

    R. A. Fisher & X. Jiang

  9. and Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, School of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona 85721, USA

    D. D. Breshears

  10. Department of Geography, University of Delaware, Newark, Delaware 19716, USA

    S. A. Rauscher

  11. Earth Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, 1 Cyclotron Road, Berkeley, California 94720, USA

    C. Koven

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Contributions

N.G.M. and W.T.P. designed the experiment. A.P.W., C.X., D.S.M., J.O., J.C.D., R.A.F., X.J., J.D.M., S.A.R. and C.K. performed model simulations. N.G.M. performed measurements. L.T.D., S.S., R.P., J.L., J.P. and N.G.M. collected measurements. All authors contributed to the writing of the paper.

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Correspondence to N. G. McDowell.

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McDowell, N., Williams, A., Xu, C. et al. Multi-scale predictions of massive conifer mortality due to chronic temperature rise. Nature Clim Change 6, 295–300 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2873

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