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19 pages, 4578 KiB  
Article
Identifying Administrative Villages with an Urgent Demand for Rural Domestic Sewage Treatment at the County Level: Decision Making from China Wisdom
by Zixuan Wang, Pengyu Li, Wenqian Cai, Zhining Shi, Jianguo Liu, Yingnan Cao, Wenkai Li, Wenjun Wu, Lin Li, Junxin Liu and Tianlong Zheng
Sustainability 2025, 17(2), 800; https://doi.org/10.3390/su17020800 - 20 Jan 2025
Viewed by 248
Abstract
Rural domestic sewage management is a crucial pathway for achieving Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 6 targets. Addressing the crucial challenge of prioritizing administrative villages for rural domestic sewage treatment at the county scale requires dedicated planning. However, county-level comprehensive evaluation models designed specifically [...] Read more.
Rural domestic sewage management is a crucial pathway for achieving Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 6 targets. Addressing the crucial challenge of prioritizing administrative villages for rural domestic sewage treatment at the county scale requires dedicated planning. However, county-level comprehensive evaluation models designed specifically for this purpose are currently limited. To address this gap, we developed a model based on 13 evaluation indicators encompassing village distribution characteristics, villager demographics, rural economic levels, and sanitation facility conditions. To gauge the varying emphasis on these factors by different groups, a questionnaire survey was conducted among experts, enterprises, and government departments involved in the rural sewage sector in China. Two counties from distinct regions were then chosen to validate these models. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) coupled with the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) method was employed to rank the importance of the factors and determine the prioritization of rural domestic sewage management in each area. The model results indicated that priority should be given to the county government, township government, ecologically sensitive areas, and administrative villages near tourist attractions in the two selected empirical counties for governance. A sensitivity analysis showed that altitude consistently exhibited high sensitivity in influencing the ranking results across all scenarios (0.4–0.6). In addition, the empirical results obtained were largely consistent with the priorities of local governments. The proposed framework offers a practical application for decision-making systems in rural domestic sewage management at the county level, providing theoretical support and scientific strategies. This holds great significance for achieving SDG 6. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Sustainable Water Management)
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<p>Research framework for evaluating the priority strategy of domestic sewage treatment in administrative villages.</p>
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<p>The criterion layer index weightings of (<b>a</b>) village distribution characteristics; (<b>b</b>) basic characteristics of villagers; (<b>c</b>) village economic levels; and (<b>d</b>) sanitation facility conditions for 8 major agricultural regions.</p>
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<p>The sub-criteria weightings for the 8 major agricultural regions, including the geographic locations of each region.</p>
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<p>The ranking of the priority treatment of rural domestic sewage in county-level administrative villages of H County in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and F County in Yungui Plateau regions, China. (<b>a</b>) H County in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River; (<b>b</b>) F County in Yungui Plateau regions. Note: The blank regions are uninvestigated villages and the county built-up areas. The county built-up areas lack a rural population, so they have been excluded from the study.</p>
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<p>Sobol sensitivity analysis of the AHP-TOPSIS ranking for two counties. The first-order indices (S1) measure the impact of individual input parameters on the output. Total effect indices (ST) assess the influence of individual input parameters and their interactions with each other on the output result. Both indicators range from 0 to 1. (<b>a</b>) Sobol sensitivity analysis results for the rural domestic sewage treatment ranking of administrative villages in H County, the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River; (<b>b</b>) Sobol sensitivity analysis results for the rural domestic sewage treatment ranking of administrative villages in F County, Yungui Plateau regions. VT = Village type; VW = villagers’ will; WS = water supply; E = elevation; POTI = proportion of toilet improvement; DONV = dispersion of natural villages; HD = housing dispersion; PORP = proportion of resident population.</p>
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21 pages, 667 KiB  
Article
The Impact of the Digital Economy on Urban Ecosystem Resilience in the Yellow River Basin
by Yu Wang and Yupu Li
Sustainability 2025, 17(2), 790; https://doi.org/10.3390/su17020790 - 20 Jan 2025
Viewed by 374
Abstract
The digital economy is key to ecological security in the Yellow River Basin and to harmonious coexistence between humans and nature. This study uses data from 80 cities in the Yellow River Basin from 2010 to 2022 to examine how the digital economy [...] Read more.
The digital economy is key to ecological security in the Yellow River Basin and to harmonious coexistence between humans and nature. This study uses data from 80 cities in the Yellow River Basin from 2010 to 2022 to examine how the digital economy affects urban ecological resilience. It uses three models to do this. The conclusion that the development of digital economy in the Yellow River Basin can significantly promote the enhancement of urban ecological environment resilience still holds after the robustness tests of phased regression, variable substitution and the introduction of instrumental variables. There is regional heterogeneity in the impact of digital economy on urban ecosystem resilience, showing the unbalanced spatial characteristics that the middle reaches are the highest, the upper reaches are the second highest, and the lower reaches are the lowest. The digital economy was shown to influence ecological resilience through a “double fixed-effects model” and a mediation effect model, via two intermediary pathways: “digital economy development → industrial structure upgrading → ecological resilience enhancement” and “digital economy development → resource allocation improvement → ecological resilience enhancement”. The digital economy was shown to transform and upgrade industrial structures and optimize capital and labor allocation, strengthening the ecological resilience of cities in the Yellow River Basin. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Ecology, Environment, and Watershed Management)
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<p>Mechanism of action of digital economy affecting urban ecosystem resilience in the Yellow River Basin.</p>
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28 pages, 55723 KiB  
Article
Spatiotemporal Changes and Trade-Offs/Synergies of Ecosystem Services in the Qin-Mang River Basin
by Jiwei Zhao, Luyao Wang, Dong Jia and Yaowen Wang
ISPRS Int. J. Geo-Inf. 2025, 14(1), 37; https://doi.org/10.3390/ijgi14010037 - 19 Jan 2025
Viewed by 440
Abstract
The Qin-Mang River Basin is an important biodiversity conservation area in the Yellow River Basin. Studying the spatiotemporal changes in its ecosystem services (ESs) and the trade-offs and synergies (TOSs) between them is crucial for regional ecological protection and high-quality development. This study, [...] Read more.
The Qin-Mang River Basin is an important biodiversity conservation area in the Yellow River Basin. Studying the spatiotemporal changes in its ecosystem services (ESs) and the trade-offs and synergies (TOSs) between them is crucial for regional ecological protection and high-quality development. This study, based on land use type (LUT), and meteorological and soil data from 1992 to 2022, combined with the InVEST model, correlation analysis, and spatial autocorrelation analysis, explores the impacts of land use/land cover changes (LUCCs) on ESs. The results show that: (1) driven by urbanization and economic development, the expansion of built-up areas has replaced cultivated land and forests, with 35,000 hectares of farmland lost, thereby increasing pressure on ESs; (2) ESs show an overall downward trend, habitat quality (HQ) has deteriorated, carbon storage (CS) remains stable but the area of low CS has expanded, and sediment delivery ratio (SDR) and water yield (WY) fluctuate due to human activities and climate influence; (3) the TOSs of ESs change dynamically, with strong synergies among HQ, CS, and SDR. However, in areas with water scarcity, the negative correlation between HQ and WY has strengthened; (4) spatial autocorrelation analysis reveals that in 1992, significant positive synergies existed between ESs in the northern and northwestern regions, with WY negatively correlated with other services. By 2022, accelerated urbanization has intensified trade-off effects in the southern and eastern regions, leading to significant ecological degradation. This study provides scientific support for the sustainable management and policymaking of watershed ecosystems. Full article
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<p>Geographic location and elevation map of the study area.</p>
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<p>Research framework.</p>
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<p>Distribution map of LUTs in the study area from 1992 to 2022.</p>
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<p>LUTs from 1992 to 2022.</p>
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<p>Sankey diagram of LUTs from 1992 to 2022.</p>
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<p>Development probabilities of various LUTs.</p>
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<p>(<b>a</b>) Relationship between newly added built-up land and GDP level, along with the contribution of expansion driving factors; (<b>b</b>) relationship between newly added arable land and slope, along with the contribution of expansion driving factors; (<b>c</b>) relationship between newly added forest land and NDVI values, along with the contribution of expansion-driving factors.</p>
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<p>Temporal and spatial distribution map of HQ index.</p>
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<p>Temporal and spatial distribution map of CS.</p>
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<p>Temporal and spatial distribution map of SDR.</p>
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<p>Temporal and spatial distribution map of WY.</p>
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<p>Correlation analysis of four ESs in the study area from 1992 to 2022.</p>
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<p>Spatial distribution map of TOSs among ESs in 1992.</p>
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<p>BLI scatter plot for 1992.</p>
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<p>Spatial distribution map of TOSs among ESs in 2022.</p>
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<p>BLI scatter plot for 2022.</p>
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19 pages, 8430 KiB  
Article
Spatiotemporal Variation of Water Use Efficiency and Its Responses to Climate Change in the Yellow River Basin from 1982 to 2018
by Jie Li, Fen Qin, Yingping Wang, Xiuyan Zhao, Mengxiao Yu, Songjia Chen, Jun Jiang, Linhua Wang and Junhua Yan
Remote Sens. 2025, 17(2), 316; https://doi.org/10.3390/rs17020316 - 17 Jan 2025
Viewed by 308
Abstract
The ecosystem water use efficiency (WUE) plays a critical role in many aspects of the global carbon cycle, water management, and ecological services. However, the response mechanisms and driving processes of WUE need to be further studied. This research was conducted based on [...] Read more.
The ecosystem water use efficiency (WUE) plays a critical role in many aspects of the global carbon cycle, water management, and ecological services. However, the response mechanisms and driving processes of WUE need to be further studied. This research was conducted based on Gross Primary Productivity (GPP), Evapotranspiration (ET), meteorological station data, and land use/cover data, and the methods of Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD), trend variation analysis, the Mann–Kendall Significant Test (M-K test), and Partial Correlation Analysis (PCA) methods. Our study revealed the spatio-temporal trend of WUE and its influencing mechanism in the Yellow River Basin (YRB) and compared the differences in WUE change before and after the implementation of the Returned Farmland to Forestry and Grassland Project in 2000. The results show that (1) the WUE of the YRB showed a significant increase trend at a rate of 0.56 × 10−2 gC·kg−1·H2O·a−1 (p < 0.05) from 1982 to 2018. The area showing a significant increase in WUE (47.07%, Slope > 0, p < 0.05) was higher than the area with a significant decrease (14.64%, Slope < 0, p < 0.05). The region of significant increase in WUE in 2000–2018 (45.35%, Slope > 0, p < 0.05) was higher than that of 1982–2000 (8.23%, Slope > 0, p < 0.05), which was 37.12% higher in comparison. (2) Forest WUE (1.267 gC·kg−1·H2O) > Cropland WUE (0.972 gC·kg−1·H2O) > Grassland WUE (0.805 gC·kg−1·H2O) under different land cover types. Forest ecosystem WUE has the highest rate of increase (0.79 × 10−2 gC·kg−1·H2O·a−1) from 2000 to 2018. Forest ecosystem WUE increased by 0.082 gC·kg−1·H2O after 2000. (3) precipitation (37.98%, R > 0, p < 0.05) and SM (10.30%, R > 0, p < 0.05) are the main climatic factors affecting WUE in the YRB. A total of 70.39% of the WUE exhibited an increasing trend, which is mainly attributed to the simultaneous increase in GPP and ET, and the rate of increasing GPP is higher than the rate of increasing ET. This study could provide a scientific reference for policy decision-making on the terrestrial carbon cycle and biodiversity conservation. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Remote Sensing for Terrestrial Hydrologic Variables)
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<p>Study area, vegetation type, basin boundary, and elevation.</p>
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<p>Temporal trends of WUE in 1982–2018. (<b>a</b>) Annual; (<b>b</b>) Grow.</p>
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<p>Spatial variation characteristics of WUE in the YRB. (<b>a</b>) Annual WUE in 1982–2018; (<b>b</b>) Annual WUE in 1982–2000; (<b>c</b>) Annual WUE in 2000–2018; (<b>d</b>) Grow WUE in 1982–2018; (<b>e</b>) Annual WUE in 1982–2000; (<b>f</b>) Annual WUE in 2000–2018.</p>
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<p>Spatial characteristics of significant variation trend of the WUE in different time periods.</p>
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<p>Variation in WUE in different land cover types.</p>
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<p>The trends of WUE for different ecosystem types in the YRB. (<b>a</b>) Farmland; (<b>b</b>) Forest; (<b>c</b>) Grassland; (<b>d</b>) Other.</p>
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<p>Spatial distribution of partial correlation coefficient between WUE and climate factors in the YRB from 1982 to 2018. (<b>a</b>) WUE and temperature; (<b>b</b>) WUE and precipitation; (<b>c</b>) WUE and vapor pressure deficit; (<b>d</b>) WUE and soil moisture.</p>
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<p>Spatial distribution of partial correlation coefficient between WUE and climate factors in the YRB from 1982 to 2018 (significance test <span class="html-italic">p</span> &lt; 0.05). (<b>a</b>) WUE and temperature; (<b>b</b>) WUE and precipitation; (<b>c</b>) WUE and vapor pressure deficit; (<b>d</b>) WUE and soil moisture.</p>
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<p>WUE changes in response to GPP and ET across different time periods.</p>
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<p>WUE significant changes in response to GPP significant changes and ET significant changes across different time periods (significant test <span class="html-italic">p</span> &lt; 0.05).</p>
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16 pages, 6550 KiB  
Article
Uncertainty-Based Industrial Water Supply and Demand Balance Pattern Recognition: A Case Study in the Yellow River Basin of Gansu Province, China
by Mingyue Ma, Junying Chu, Zuhao Zhou, Zuohuai Tang, Yunfu Zhang, Tianhong Zhou, Xusheng Zhang and Ying Wang
Sustainability 2025, 17(2), 693; https://doi.org/10.3390/su17020693 - 17 Jan 2025
Viewed by 384
Abstract
The balance between water supply and demand is essential for industrial growth, affecting economic, social, and environmental sustainability. Our research employs a Gaussian process regression for demand prediction. Additionally, it takes into account water limits and policy thresholds when determining the supply, thereby [...] Read more.
The balance between water supply and demand is essential for industrial growth, affecting economic, social, and environmental sustainability. Our research employs a Gaussian process regression for demand prediction. Additionally, it takes into account water limits and policy thresholds when determining the supply, thereby defining a range of uncertainty for both the industrial demand and the supply. A pattern recognition method matches this trade-off range, identifying three patterns to support water management. The study focuses on the analysis of industrial water supply and demand dynamics under uncertain conditions in nine cities (Baiyin, Dingxi, Gannan, Lanzhou, Linxia, Pingliang, Qingyang, Tianshui, and Wuwei) in Gansu Province of China’s Yellow River Basin in 2030. The results of the study show that industrial water use in Baiyin, Linxia, Dingxi, and Tianshui cities falls into Pattern I, providing water resources to support industrial development. Industrial water use in Wuwei, Pingliang, Qingyang, and Gannan cities represents Pattern II, which maintains a balance between supply and demand while allowing flexibility in water demand. Finally, the industrial water use in Lanzhou city is characterized by Pattern III, which requires optimization through structural, technological, and management improvements to mitigate the negative impacts of water scarcity on the sustainable development of the economy and society. The results of the research can be used as a reference for policy making in water resources planning and management in the basin. Full article
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<p>Framework for pattern recognition of supply and demand balance under uncertainty.</p>
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<p>Pattern I (excessive supply amid weak industrial water demand).</p>
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<p>Pattern II (balance of water supply and demand).</p>
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<p>Pattern III (insufficient supply amid strong industrial water demand).</p>
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<p>Prefecture-level city in the Yellow River Basin, Gansu Province.</p>
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<p>Predicted water demand range at different confidence levels in Lanzhou.</p>
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<p>Pattern I recognition.</p>
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<p>Pattern I recognition.</p>
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<p>Pattern II recognition.</p>
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<p>Pattern II recognition.</p>
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<p>Pattern III recognition.</p>
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19 pages, 21003 KiB  
Article
Spatial-Temporal Pattern of Vegetation Net Primary Productivity and Its Natural Driving Factors in Ordos Section of the Yellow River Basin
by Xiaoguang Wu, Weiwei Hao, Guohua Qu and Lingyun Yang
Atmosphere 2025, 16(1), 89; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos16010089 - 15 Jan 2025
Viewed by 286
Abstract
Weather change has a great impact on vegetation growth restoration and ecosystem service function, resulting in significant changes in vegetation net primary productivity (NPP). Therefore, based on MOD17A3 NPP data and meteorological data, this study used the slope of a one-dimensional linear regression [...] Read more.
Weather change has a great impact on vegetation growth restoration and ecosystem service function, resulting in significant changes in vegetation net primary productivity (NPP). Therefore, based on MOD17A3 NPP data and meteorological data, this study used the slope of a one-dimensional linear regression equation, Spearman correlation analysis method, and geographical detector model to reveal the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of NPP in the Ordos section of the Yellow River Basin from 2000 to 2021 and the impact of weather change on NPP. Results: (1) NPP increased from 25.4 gC/m2 in 2000 to 60.3 gC/m2 in 2021. The NPP of vegetation in the northeastern and southern parts of the study area showed a significant increasing trend. (2) From 2000 to 2021, the evaporation showed a fluctuating downward trend, and the relative humidity, temperature, wind speed, surface temperature, and precipitation showed a fluctuating upward trend. (3) Evaporation is the most important factor hindering the growth of NPP. Precipitation, wind speed, and temperature played an important role in promoting NPP, and the average correlation coefficients were 0.62, 0.33, and 0.15, respectively. Relative humidity and surface temperature can promote NPP, but the effect is not significant. (4) The interaction results showed that the combination of temperature and precipitation, wind speed and precipitation, wind speed and temperature, precipitation and evaporation, and precipitation and relative humidity could effectively improve NPP. The interaction of climatic factors has a significant effect on the change of NPP in the Ordos section of the Yellow River Basin. The results provide a strong reference for ecological protection and restoration, the realization of dual carbon goals, and sustainable development in the Yellow River Basin. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Climatology)
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<p>Overview of the study area: (<b>a</b>) map of China; (<b>b</b>) the indicator map of the Yellow River Basin; (<b>c</b>) the Ordos section of the Yellow River Basin, meteorological stations, and field monitoring points.</p>
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<p>Studies the technical process. (<b>a</b>) Data collection; (<b>b</b>) temporal and spatial distribution of NPP; (<b>c</b>) multi-year average of various meteorological factors from 2000 to 2021; (<b>d</b>) correlation coefficient between various meteorological factors and NPP; (<b>e</b>) the interaction of various meteorological factors on NPP.</p>
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<p>(<b>a</b>) Photos of field detection points; (<b>b</b>) linear fitting between the NPP data calculated by the CASA model and the downloaded MOD17A3 NPP data; (<b>c</b>) caption.</p>
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<p>Temporal variation of NPP in the study area from 2000 to 2021.</p>
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<p>(<b>a</b>) The spatial and temporal distribution of NPP from 2000 to 2021; (<b>b</b>) the change trend of NPP from 2000 to 2021 obtained by slope trend analysis method.</p>
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<p>Temporal variation of meteorological factors from 2000 to 2021.</p>
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<p>The multi-year average of meteorological factors from 2000 to 2021: (<b>a</b>) average evaporation for many years; (<b>b</b>) multi-year average relative humidity; (<b>c</b>) multi-year average temperature; (<b>d</b>) multi-year average wind speed; (<b>e</b>) multi-year average surface temperature; (<b>f</b>) average annual precipitation.</p>
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<p>(<b>a</b>) The correlation coefficient between NPP and evaporation; (<b>b</b>) the correlation coefficient between NPP and relative humidity; (<b>c</b>) the correlation coefficient between NPP and temperature; (<b>d</b>) the correlation coefficient between NPP and wind speed; (<b>e</b>) the correlation coefficient between NPP and surface air temperature; (<b>f</b>) the correlation coefficient between NPP and precipitation.</p>
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<p>Correlation heat map between meteorological factors and NPP.</p>
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16 pages, 8896 KiB  
Article
Vegetation Quality Assessment of the Shaanxi Section of the Yellow River Basin Based on NDVI and Rain-Use Efficiency
by Zhao Liu, Danyue Wang, Lei Han, Hongliang Kang and Xinxin Cao
Land 2025, 14(1), 166; https://doi.org/10.3390/land14010166 - 15 Jan 2025
Viewed by 384
Abstract
The Yellow River Basin is a critical region for ecological environment protection and social and economic development in China. It is of great significance to study vegetation dynamics for the high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin. In this study, based on the [...] Read more.
The Yellow River Basin is a critical region for ecological environment protection and social and economic development in China. It is of great significance to study vegetation dynamics for the high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin. In this study, based on the data of NDVI and precipitation datasets in the growing season (June to September) from 2000 to 2019, we used a Sen+Mann–Kendall trend analysis and other methods to study the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of precipitation and vegetation cover in the Shaanxi section of the Yellow River Basin and to assess the regional vegetation quality change characteristics based on estimating the rain-use efficiency (RUE). The results show the following: (1) The precipitation in the study area showed a spatial distribution pattern of more in the south and less in the north, in which Yulin City had the lowest precipitation overall, but it was an area with significant increasing precipitation. (2) The NDVI value of the Shaanxi section of the Yellow River Basin showed an overall upward trend from 2000 to 2019, with a growth rate of 0.327/10a. The vegetation cover showed the spatial characteristics of high in the south and low in the north, which showed that the vegetation growth condition was poor in the wind-sand grassland area at the southern edge of the Mu Us Sandland in the northwestern part of Yulin City and the construction areas in the Guanzhong Plain. Meanwhile, the vegetation grew well in Yan’an City and the area close to the Qinba Mountains. Moreover, the NDVI of the study area increased with the increase in precipitation. (3) The vegetation quality in the study area showed fluctuating interannual changes and a weak upward trend. More than 80% of the vegetation in the study area was in a state of improvement, and the areas with more significant improvement were mainly located in the northern part of the study area, while the vegetation was degraded in the urban and urban suburb areas in the Guanzhong Plain. The results of this study are of great practical significance for promoting the socio-economic development of the Yellow River Basin in coordination with ecological environmental protection. Full article
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<p>(<b>a</b>) Yellow River Basin region and Shaanxi Province; (<b>b</b>) the locations and ranges of the Loess Plateau region in northern Shaanxi, the Guanzhong Plain region, and the Qinba Mountain region; and (<b>c</b>–<b>e</b>) the typical vegetation landscapes in the different regions.</p>
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<p>The methodology flowchart of this study.</p>
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<p>Interannual variation of accumulated precipitation during the growing season in the study area.</p>
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<p>Spatial distributions of annual mean accumulated precipitation (<b>a</b>) and variation trend of accumulated precipitation (<b>b</b>) in the growing season during 2000–2019 of the Shaanxi section of the Yellow River Basin.</p>
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<p>Interannual variation of accumulated NDVI in the growing season of the study area.</p>
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<p>Spatial distributions of annual mean accumulated NDVI (<b>a</b>), change slope of accumulated NDVI (<b>b</b>), and variation trend of accumulated NDVI (<b>c</b>) in the growing season during 2000–2019 in the Shaanxi section of the Yellow River Basin.</p>
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<p>Interannual variation of RUE in the growing season of the study area.</p>
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<p>Spatial distributions of the annual average RUE (<b>a</b>), change slope of the RUE (<b>b</b>), and variation trend of the RUE (<b>c</b>) from 2000 to 2019 in the Shaanxi section of the Yellow River Basin.</p>
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<p>Correlations between NDVI (<b>a</b>) and RUE (<b>b</b>) and precipitation.</p>
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23 pages, 7550 KiB  
Article
Spatiotemporal Changes in Evapotranspiration and Its Influencing Factors in the Jiziwan Region of the Yellow River from 1982 to 2018
by Wenting Liu, Rong Tang, Ge Zhang, Jiacong Xue, Baolin Xue and Yuntao Wang
Remote Sens. 2025, 17(2), 252; https://doi.org/10.3390/rs17020252 - 12 Jan 2025
Viewed by 386
Abstract
Evapotranspiration (ET) is a critical process in the interaction between the terrestrial climate system and vegetation. In recent years, ET has undergone significant changes in the Jiziwan region of the Yellow River Basin, primarily due to the implementation of ecological restoration programs and [...] Read more.
Evapotranspiration (ET) is a critical process in the interaction between the terrestrial climate system and vegetation. In recent years, ET has undergone significant changes in the Jiziwan region of the Yellow River Basin, primarily due to the implementation of ecological restoration programs and the dual impacts of climate change. As a result, hydrological cycle processes have been profoundly affected, making it crucial to accurately capture trends in ET and its components, as well as to identify the key drivers of these changes. In this study, we first systematically analyzed the dynamic evolution of ET and its components in the Jiziwan of the Yellow River area between 1982 and 2018 from the perspective of land use change. To achieve accurate ET simulations, we introduced a multiple linear regression algorithm and quantitatively evaluated the specific contributions of five climate factors, including precipitation, temperature, wind speed, specific humidity, and radiation, as well as the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), a vegetation factor, to ET and its components. On this basis, we explored the combined influence mechanism of climate change and vegetation change on ET in detail. The results revealed that the structure of ET in the Jiziwan of the Yellow River area has changed significantly and that vegetation evapotranspiration has gradually replaced soil evaporation, occupies a dominant position, and has become the main component of ET in this area. Among the many factors affecting ET, the contribution of climate change is the most significant, with an average contribution rate of approximately 59%. Moreover, the influence of human activities on total ET and its components is also high. The factors that had the greatest impact on total ET, soil evaporation, and vegetation transpiration were precipitation, radiation, and the NDVI, respectively. In terms of spatial distribution, the eastern part of Jiziwan was more significantly affected by environmental changes, and the trends of the ET changes were more dramatic. This study not only enhances our scientific understanding of the changes in ET and their driving mechanisms in the Jiziwan area of the Yellow River but also provides a solid scientific foundation for the development of water resource management and ecological restoration strategies in the region. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Quantitative Remote Sensing of Vegetation and Its Applications)
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<p>Map of the study area.</p>
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<p>Schematic representation of the method.</p>
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<p>(<b>a</b>,<b>b</b>) Verification of the accuracy of GLEAM data at flux sites; (<b>c</b>) verification of the accuracy of the GLEAM data versus the simulated values of evapotranspiration, expressed as R<sup>2</sup>.</p>
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<p>Interannual trends in evapotranspiration and its components in the Jiziwan area.</p>
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<p>Annual average and trend of evapotranspiration and its components in the Jiziwan area of the Yellow River. Subplots (<b>a</b>–<b>d</b>) show the annual average spatial patterns of ET, Es, Ei, and Ec, respectively, and subplots (<b>e</b>–<b>h</b>) display their corresponding annual trends.</p>
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<p>Changes in land use area in Jiziwan, Yellow River Basin, 1985–2020.</p>
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<p>Sankey diagram of the land use transfer matrix for 1985–2020 in the Jiziwan area.</p>
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<p>Interannual changes in ET for different land cover types, 1985–2020.</p>
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<p>Spatial distributions of the effects of climate and vegetation factors and nonvegetated subsurface factors on ET and its components. Subplots (<b>a</b>–<b>d</b>) illustrate the influence of climatic and vegetation factors on evapotranspiration and its components, while subplots (<b>e</b>–<b>h</b>) represent the influence of non-vegetation underlying surface factors on evapotranspiration and its components.</p>
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<p>Spatial distributions of the relative contributions of ET and its component drivers. The (<b>a</b>–<b>d</b>), (<b>e</b>–<b>h</b>), and (<b>i</b>–<b>l</b>) of subplots represent the impacts of climate change, vegetation change, and other factors on evapotranspiration and its components, respectively.</p>
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<p>Spatial distributions of the relative contributions of meteorological factors to ET and its components. The (<b>a</b>–<b>d</b>), (<b>e</b>–<b>h</b>), (<b>i</b>–<b>l</b>), (<b>m</b>–<b>p</b>) and (<b>q</b>–<b>t</b>) of subplots represent the contributions of temperature, precipitation, wind speed, specific humidity, and radiation to evapotranspiration and its components, respectively, with values ranging from 0 to 100.</p>
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<p>Contribution of ET and its components to influencing factors. (<b>a</b>–<b>c</b>) illustrate the differences in the dominant factors of E, Es, and Ec.</p>
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<p>Plot of the NDVI and its trend during the study period in the Jiziwan area.</p>
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28 pages, 5046 KiB  
Article
The Development of Economic–Social–Ecological Complex Systems in the Yellow River Basin, China
by Yuyang Li, Haiguang Hao, Lihui Sun, Mengxiao Liu and Ding Wang
Sustainability 2025, 17(2), 511; https://doi.org/10.3390/su17020511 - 10 Jan 2025
Viewed by 432
Abstract
The economic, social and ecological elements in the region constitute a complex ecosystem. The development trend, internal coordination and interactive effects of the economic–social–ecological (ESE) system have consistently constituted pivotal scientific propositions in the context of the social development process. The Yellow River [...] Read more.
The economic, social and ecological elements in the region constitute a complex ecosystem. The development trend, internal coordination and interactive effects of the economic–social–ecological (ESE) system have consistently constituted pivotal scientific propositions in the context of the social development process. The Yellow River Basin holds strategic importance, acting as both an ecological barrier and a center for economic development within China. Based on these considerations, this study focuses on the Yellow River Basin and innovatively establishes a theoretical framework and measurement model for the development of the ESE system. Quantitative methods, including the coupled coordination model and augmented regression tree model, are employed to evaluate the development, coordination, spatial patterns and influencing factors of the ESE system in the study area. The findings reveal that the economic and social subsystems are rapidly developing. Over the study period, the focus of ESE system development shifted eastward. Furthermore, there were noticeable disparities in the factors influencing coordinated ESE system development across the upper, middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin. Thus, sustainable development policies for the region must be tailored to local conditions. This study also offers insights into the potential development paths for the Yellow River Basin and other river basins in China, contributing practical value to the promotion of sustainable development and the construction of an ESE system that reflects the unique characteristics of the Yellow River Basin. Full article
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<p>Location map of the study area.</p>
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<p>Comprehensive ESE scores in the Yellow River Basin from 2000 to 2020 (<b>a</b>). Economic subsystem scores in the Yellow River Basin from 2000 to 2020 (<b>b</b>). Ecological subsystem scores in the Yellow River Basin from 2000 to 2020 (<b>c</b>), and social subsystem scores in the Yellow River Basin from 2000 to 2020 (<b>d</b>). The deepening color represents the increase in year from 2000 to 2020.</p>
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<p>Spatiotemporal variation of county–level ESE system development in the Yellow River Basin, 2000–2020.</p>
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<p>Migration trajectories of ESE system centers of counties in the Yellow River Basin and standard deviation ellipses.</p>
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<p>Spatiotemporal analysis of ESE system CCDs in the Yellow River Basin (2000–2020).</p>
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<p>Trend map of cold and hot spot distribution of CCDs in the Yellow River Basin (2000–2020).</p>
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<p>Relative importance of individual influencing factors on CCDs in the upper, middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin.</p>
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<p>Marginal effects of individual influencing factors on the CCDs in the upper, middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin.</p>
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19 pages, 5526 KiB  
Article
Land Use Modeling and Predicted Ecosystem Service Value Under Different Development Scenarios: A Case Study of the Upper–Middle Yellow River Basin, China
by Mingwei Ma, Yuhuai He, Yanwei Sun, Huijuan Cui and Hongfei Zang
Land 2025, 14(1), 115; https://doi.org/10.3390/land14010115 - 8 Jan 2025
Viewed by 395
Abstract
Exploring the future ecosystem service value (ESV) of the upper–middle Yellow River Basin is of great significance to enhancing its ecological security and capacity. This is in response to the strategy for the ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow [...] Read more.
Exploring the future ecosystem service value (ESV) of the upper–middle Yellow River Basin is of great significance to enhancing its ecological security and capacity. This is in response to the strategy for the ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin. In this study, the land use change from 2000 to 2020 was analyzed quantitatively. The land use pattern in 2035 was predicted using Cellular Automata and Markov models under business as usual (BAU), ecological protection (EPS), and high urbanization (HUS) scenarios. The future ESV was estimated and the impact of land use changes on the regional ESV was identified. The results indicate that the study area experienced a reduction (~12,139 km2) in cultivation and an expansion (~10,597 km2) of built-up land from 2000 to 2020. In 2035, under the BAU scenario, the area of construction land and water would expand by 24.52% and 11.51%, respectively, while the area of grassland and unused land would decrease by 18,520 km2 and 2770 km2, respectively. Under the EPS scenario, the area of forests, grasslands, and water would increase by 16.57%, 10.59%, and 4%, respectively. Under three different scenarios, the regional ESVs are estimated at from CNY 2475 to 2710 billion, while grasslands contribute the largest part accounting for from 57.98% to 59.21%. These findings could help to guide land development and protection through regional ecological construction. Full article
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<p>Geographic location of the upper and middle reaches of the Yellow River.</p>
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<p>Flow chart of the proposed methodology.</p>
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<p>Suitability map for different land types.</p>
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<p>Spatial and temporal distribution of land use types in the upper and middle reaches of the Yellow River in 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020.</p>
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<p>Quantitative changes in land type transfer in the upper and middle reaches of the Yellow River, 2000–2020. <b>Note:</b> Different colored trajectory lines indicate the direction of flow of a site type during a specific period of time, and the thickness of the trajectory line represents the magnitude of the transformation.</p>
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<p>Spatial pattern of land use in the upper and middle reaches of the Yellow River in 2035 under different scenarios.</p>
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<p>Spatial distribution of the <span class="html-italic">ESV</span> in the upper and middle reaches of the Yellow River under multi-scenario simulation.</p>
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<p>Sensitivity coefficients of ecosystem service values for each category under different scenarios.</p>
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<p><span class="html-italic">ESV</span> based on land use type for different scenarios.</p>
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<p>Distribution of actual and modeled land use in the upper and middle reaches of the Yellow River in 2015 and 2020.</p>
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10 pages, 599 KiB  
Article
Study on the Stage Method of the Water Environmental Capacity Flood Season in the Ningxia Section of the Yellow River
by Yu Song and Hongrui Wang
Hydrology 2025, 12(1), 10; https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology12010010 - 8 Jan 2025
Viewed by 421
Abstract
The rational use of the water environmental resources of the main stream of the Yellow River, which is the mother river of the Chinese nation, and the control of and reduction in water environmental pollution, especially in relation to water quality safety, have [...] Read more.
The rational use of the water environmental resources of the main stream of the Yellow River, which is the mother river of the Chinese nation, and the control of and reduction in water environmental pollution, especially in relation to water quality safety, have become important issues that must be considered in Ningxia’s economic and social development. Due to the influence of monsoons, river runoff in most of the river basins in China is mainly concentrated in the flood season, and its distribution is extremely uneven within and among years. Therefore, an analysis of the seasonal change law of heavy rainfall and flooding and a scientific and rational staging of the flood season can fully demonstrate the comprehensive benefits of the river and also address the inevitable need to master and utilize the capacity of the water environment. In this study, the abundant, level, and absent year division of the Ningxia section of the main stream of the Yellow River was carried out using the percentage of parity and the guarantee rate methods. Several commonly used flood periods staging methods were studied, and their applicable conditions were preliminarily analyzed. The research results not only provide a reference for the relevant management departments, a decision-making basis for rational planning, and the scientific and appropriate development of river basins but they also have scientific research significance. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Advances in Urban Hydrology and Stormwater Management)
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<p>Flood season of Xia Heyan.</p>
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<p>Flood season of Ku Shui River.</p>
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23 pages, 29777 KiB  
Article
Monitoring and Prevention Strategies for Iron and Aluminum Pollutants in Acid Mine Drainage (AMD): Evidence from Xiaomixi Stream in Qinling Mountains
by Xiaoya Wang, Min Yang, Huaqing Chen, Zongming Cai, Weishun Fu, Xin Zhang, Fangqiang Sun and Yangquan Li
Minerals 2025, 15(1), 59; https://doi.org/10.3390/min15010059 - 8 Jan 2025
Viewed by 505
Abstract
Acid mine drainage (AMD) generated during the exploitation and utilization of mineral resources poses a severe environmental problem globally within the mining industry. The Xiaomixi Stream in Ziyang County, Shaanxi Province, is a primary tributary of the Han River, which is surrounded by [...] Read more.
Acid mine drainage (AMD) generated during the exploitation and utilization of mineral resources poses a severe environmental problem globally within the mining industry. The Xiaomixi Stream in Ziyang County, Shaanxi Province, is a primary tributary of the Han River, which is surrounded by historically concentrated mining areas for stone coal and vanadium ores. Rainwater erosion of abandoned mine tunnels and waste rock piles has led to the leaching of acidic substances and heavy metals, which then enter the Haoping River and its tributaries through surface runoff. This results in acidic water, posing a significant threat to the water quality of the South-to-North Water Diversion Middle Route within the Han River basin. According to this study’s investigation, Xiaomixi’s acidic water exhibits yellow and white precipitates upstream and downstream of the river, respectively. These precipitates stem from the oxidation of iron-bearing minerals and aluminum-bearing minerals. The precipitation process is controlled by factors such as the pH and temperature, exhibiting seasonal variations. Taking the Xiaomixi Stream in Ziyang County, Shaanxi Province, as the study area, this paper conducts field investigations, systematic sampling of water bodies and river sediments, testing for iron and aluminum pollutants in water, and micro-area observations using field emission scanning electron microscopy (FESEM) on sediments, along with analyzing the iron and aluminum content. The deposition is analyzed using handheld X-ray fluorescence (XRF) analyzers, X-ray diffraction (XRD), and visible–near-infrared spectroscopy data, and a geochemical model is established using PHREEQC software. This paper summarizes the migration and transformation mechanisms of iron and aluminum pollutants in acidic water and proposes appropriate prevention and control measures. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Acid Mine Drainage: A Challenge or an Opportunity?)
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<p>Current status of mining operations and surface water pollution in the study area: (<b>a</b>) yellow precipitate upstream; and (<b>b</b>) white precipitate downstream.</p>
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<p>A geographical location map and substrate map of Xiaomixi.</p>
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<p>Distribution map of sampling points.</p>
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<p>Current status of mining operations and surface water pollution in the study area: (<b>a</b>) collect water samples; and (<b>b</b>) measure the pH of the water samples.</p>
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<p>Photos of the collected sediments: (<b>a</b>) upstream sediment samples; and (<b>b</b>) downstream sediment samples.</p>
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<p>Microscopic morphology of target minerals in the sample: (<b>a</b>) microscopic morphology diagram of upstream samples; and (<b>b</b>) microscopic morphology diagram of downstream samples.</p>
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<p>Secondary electron spectroscopy image of target minerals in the sample: (<b>a</b>) secondary electron spectrogram of upstream sample minerals; and (<b>b</b>) secondary electron spectroscopy image of downstream sample minerals.</p>
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<p>Variation map of the Fe mass percentage (wt%) in river sediments.</p>
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<p>Variation map of the Al mass percentage (wt%) in river sediments.</p>
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<p>The spectral curves of the samples: (<b>a</b>) the spectral curves of the samples numbered 1 to 8; and (<b>b</b>) the spectral curves of the samples numbered 9 to 13.</p>
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<p>XRD spectra of Fe and Al in sediment samples.</p>
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<p>Results of the Fe and Al ion content in the surface water experiments.</p>
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<p>Mass percentage of Fe and Al ions in the river sediments.</p>
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<p>Illustration of the sampling points for the tributaries.</p>
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16 pages, 6064 KiB  
Article
Response Analysis of Microbial Community Structures and Functions Under Water and Sediment Changes in the Middle and Lower Yellow River
by Ji Wu, Quan Hong, Jin Zhang, Chen Xie, Yang Liu, Dandan Li, Hao Liu and Ziwu Fan
Diversity 2025, 17(1), 41; https://doi.org/10.3390/d17010041 - 7 Jan 2025
Viewed by 426
Abstract
Safety and ecological health are restricted by the high amount of suspended sediment in the Yellow River. To solve the problems of the high sediment content and siltation in the Yellow River, the Xiaolangdi Reservoir (XLDR) has been carrying out water–sediment regulation (WSR) [...] Read more.
Safety and ecological health are restricted by the high amount of suspended sediment in the Yellow River. To solve the problems of the high sediment content and siltation in the Yellow River, the Xiaolangdi Reservoir (XLDR) has been carrying out water–sediment regulation (WSR) since 2002. To clarify the effects of the water and sediment changes caused by WSR on microbial communities, we analysed the composition of the microbial communities and functional groups in surface water and sediments before and after WSR using high-throughput sequencing and microbial functional annotation. Proteobacteria, Actinobacteria, Bacteroidetes, and Firmicutes were detected as the main microbial communities in the Yellow River’s middle and lower reaches. The water temperature (WT), dissolved oxygen (DO), total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), and evolution of the microbial communities were all correlated (p < 0.05). The biodiversity indices of the surface water and sediment microbes, respectively, greatly declined. The WSR programme broke down nutrients that had been adsorbed on the sediments, which diminished microbial metabolic activity and impaired the water bodies’ capacity to purify themselves. In summary, this study provides the biological information needed for the ecological conservation of the Yellow River basin, as well as insights into the changes in and response characteristics of microorganisms following severe disturbances in rivers with high sediment concentrations. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Freshwater Biodiversity)
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<p>Distribution of sampling points in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River (<b>a</b>) and Xiaolangdi Reservoir (<b>b</b>). Note: Tributary section including Z1, Z2 (<b>a</b>).</p>
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<p>Bacterial communities in surface water and sediment at phylum level in pre- and post-WSR samples. Note: Pre-WSR surface water (<b>a</b>), pre-WSR sediment (<b>b</b>), post-WSR surface water (<b>c</b>), and post-WSR sediment (<b>d</b>).</p>
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<p>Microbial communities at genus level in surface water and sediment in pre- and post-WSR. Note: Pre-WSR surface water (<b>a</b>), pre-WSR sediment (<b>b</b>), post-WSR surface water (<b>c</b>), and post-WSR sediment (<b>d</b>).</p>
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<p>RDA of microbial community phylum levels in surface water (<b>a</b>) and sediment (<b>b</b>) between pre- and post-WSR samples in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River in relation to environmental factors. Note: Pro: Proteobacteria; Act: Actinobacteria; Bac: Bacteroidetes; Fir: Firmicutes; Cya: Cyanobacteria; Chl: Chloroflex; Act: Acidobacteria.</p>
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<p>The α-diversity of surface water and sediments in middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River pre- and post-WSR ((<b>a</b>) Chao1; (<b>b</b>) Shannon. W: Surface water; S: sediment).</p>
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<p>Functional prediction of KEGG pathway Level 2 in pre-WSR microbial communities in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River.</p>
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<p>Functional prediction of KEGG pathway Level 2 for the post-WSR microbial communities in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River.</p>
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37 pages, 10558 KiB  
Article
Climate Impact on Evapotranspiration in the Yellow River Basin: Interpretable Forecasting with Advanced Time Series Models and Explainable AI
by Sheheryar Khan, Huiliang Wang, Umer Nauman, Rabia Dars, Muhammad Waseem Boota and Zening Wu
Remote Sens. 2025, 17(1), 115; https://doi.org/10.3390/rs17010115 - 1 Jan 2025
Viewed by 611
Abstract
Evapotranspiration (ET) plays a crucial role in the hydrological cycle, significantly impacting agricultural productivity and water resource management, particularly in water-scarce areas. This study explores the effects of key climate variables temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, wind speed, and humidity on ET from 2000 [...] Read more.
Evapotranspiration (ET) plays a crucial role in the hydrological cycle, significantly impacting agricultural productivity and water resource management, particularly in water-scarce areas. This study explores the effects of key climate variables temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, wind speed, and humidity on ET from 2000 to 2020, with forecasts extended to 2030. Advanced data preprocessing techniques, including Yeo-Johnson and Box-Cox transformations, Savitzky–Golay smoothing, and outlier elimination, were applied to improve data quality. Datasets from MODIS, TRMM, GLDAS, and ERA5 were utilized to enhance model accuracy. The predictive performance of various time series forecasting models, including Prophet, SARIMA, STL + ARIMA, TBATS, ARIMAX, and ETS, was systematically evaluated. This study also introduces novel algorithms for Explainable AI (XAI) and SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations), enhancing the interpretability of model predictions and improving understanding of how climate variables affect ET. This comprehensive methodology not only accurately forecasts ET but also offers a transparent approach to understanding climatic effects on ET. The results indicate that Prophet and ETS models demonstrate superior prediction accuracy compared to other models. The ETS model achieved the lowest Mean Absolute Error (MAE) values of 0.60 for precipitation, 0.51 for wind speed, and 0.48 for solar radiation. Prophet excelled with the lowest Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) values of 0.62 for solar radiation, 0.67 for wind speed, and 0.74 for precipitation. SHAP analysis indicates that temperature has the strongest impact on ET predictions, with SHAP values ranging from −1.5 to 1.0, followed by wind speed (−0.75 to 0.75) and solar radiation (−0.5 to 0.5). Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Advanced Techniques for Water-Related Remote Sensing (Second Edition))
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<p>Representation of the study region YRBC while the Yellow River is highlighted in blue.</p>
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<p>Histogram of Box-Cox before and after transformation for precipitation and solar radiation. (<b>a</b>,<b>c</b>) Untransformed values show slight to moderate skewness and lighter tails. (<b>b</b>,<b>d</b>) Box-Cox transformed values exhibit reduced skewness and improve normality, demonstrating the transformation’s effectiveness.</p>
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<p>Flow chart of novel methodology for ET forecasting and analysis: the flowchart shows data preprocessing, model selection, and performance evaluation. SHAP analysis and a Surrogate Decision-Tree model improve interpretability and reveal how climate variables affect model predictions.</p>
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<p>Comparative heatmap of model performance metrics (MSE, RMSE, MAE) across climate variables (precipitation, temperature, solar radiation, wind speed, humidity) for models ETS, TBATS, Prophet, STL + ARIMA, and SARIMA. The color gradient shows error magnitude, with darker blue suggesting better model performance and red/orange indicating worse performance.</p>
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<p>ARIMAX forecast for ET and the incorporation of climate variables as exogenous variables. The ARIMAX model exhibits robust predictive capabilities for both solar radiation and wind speed, with MAE values of 0.58 and 0.58, respectively, and RMSE values below 1. Conversely, the forecast for temperature displays greater deviations (MAE: 1.17, RMSE: 1.71), indicating that the relationship between ET and temperature over time is more intricate to predict.</p>
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<p>SARIMA model forecast for ET, which does not include climate variables as exogenous variables. Solar radiation (MAE: 0.68, RMSE: 1.12) and wind speed exhibit comparatively low error in the SARIMA model’s forecast of ET in relation to a variety of climate factors, indicating that these variables are more predictable. Conversely, the model experiences greater difficulties with temperature predictions, as evidenced by an MAE of 1.55 and RMSE of 2.13.</p>
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<p>ETS model forecast for ET and climate variables: The ETS model effectively predicts ET and climate variables, demonstrating exceptional solar radiation (MAE: 0.48, RMSE: 0.64) and wind speed (MAE: 0.51, RMSE: 0.66). Nevertheless, the model demonstrates slightly higher errors for humidity (MAE: 0.95, RMSE: 1.27) and temperature (MAE: 1.01, RMSE: 1.37), suggesting that it has moderate difficulty in capturing variations in these factors.</p>
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<p>STL + ARIMA model forecast for ET and climate variables: The model accurately predicts wind speed and precipitation with comparatively low error values. However, it has poor performance when forecasting temperature, as evidenced by the extremely high MSE (89.87) and RMSE (9.48) values. Solar radiation and humidity also pose moderate challenges, as evidenced by MAE values exceeding 1.0.</p>
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<p>TBATS model forecast for ET and climate variables: The TBATS model yields accurate predictions for most climate variables, with the lowest errors in wind speed and solar radiation. Although temperature estimates are generally accurate, they exhibit a higher variance (MAE: 1.01), while humidity predictions also exhibit moderate forecasting errors (MAE: 0.90).</p>
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<p>Prophet model forecast for ET and climate variables: With MAE values of 0.47 and 0.55 for solar radiation and wind speed, respectively, the Prophet model performs well in terms of prediction. However, it faces greater difficulties with temperature (MAE: 0.99, RMSE: 1.30) and humidity (MAE: 1.01, RMSE: 1.25), where the forecast errors are marginally higher.</p>
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<p>Overall, radar performance comparison of forecasting models across climate variables: each chart shows MAE, MSE, RMSE, R, and NSE model errors. ETS, TBATS, and SARIMA have lower error values for most climatic variables, indicating improved accuracy and reliability. STL + ARIMA has larger errors, especially for temperature, indicating its difficulty anticipating volatile climate variables.</p>
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<p>(<b>a</b>,<b>b</b>): Decision tree surrogate models for SARIMA and ARIMAX: both models prioritize temperature and wind speed as primary splitting variables. The accuracy of ET prediction is substantially influenced by initial splits at temperature thresholds of ≤23.46 °C and wind speed thresholds of ≤0.46 for SARIMA and ≤0.43 for ARIMAX. (<b>c,d</b>): Decision Tree Surrogate Models for ETS and Prophet: With initial divides at temperature ≤ 23.46 °C and considerable secondary splits depending on precipitation (ETS) and wind speed (Prophet), both models emphasize temperature and wind speed as important predictors and demonstrate their impact on ET forecasting. (<b>e</b>,<b>f</b>): Decision Tree Surrogate Models for TBATS and STL + ARIMA: temperature and humidity are the primary factors, with TBATS emphasizing wind speed and STL + ARIMA concentrating on the intricate interactions between temperature and precipitation. This demonstrates their ability to capture a variety of ET prediction patterns.</p>
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<p>(<b>a</b>,<b>b</b>): Decision tree surrogate models for SARIMA and ARIMAX: both models prioritize temperature and wind speed as primary splitting variables. The accuracy of ET prediction is substantially influenced by initial splits at temperature thresholds of ≤23.46 °C and wind speed thresholds of ≤0.46 for SARIMA and ≤0.43 for ARIMAX. (<b>c,d</b>): Decision Tree Surrogate Models for ETS and Prophet: With initial divides at temperature ≤ 23.46 °C and considerable secondary splits depending on precipitation (ETS) and wind speed (Prophet), both models emphasize temperature and wind speed as important predictors and demonstrate their impact on ET forecasting. (<b>e</b>,<b>f</b>): Decision Tree Surrogate Models for TBATS and STL + ARIMA: temperature and humidity are the primary factors, with TBATS emphasizing wind speed and STL + ARIMA concentrating on the intricate interactions between temperature and precipitation. This demonstrates their ability to capture a variety of ET prediction patterns.</p>
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<p>SHAP value analysis of feature impact on ET predictions across different models: SHAP value charts for six models (<b>a</b>) ARIMAX, (<b>b</b>) Prophet, (<b>c</b>) SARIMA, (<b>d</b>) ETS, (<b>e</b>) STL + ARIMA, and (<b>f</b>) TBATS show how climate parameters (temperature, precipitation, wind speed, humidity, solar radiation) affect ET forecasts. Blue dots indicate low feature values, whereas red points indicate high values. SHAP values, shown by the dots on the <span class="html-italic">x</span>-axis, measure each feature’s contribution to the model’s prediction for a single occurrence. Positive SHAP values improve ET predictions, while negative values decrease them. Across models, temperature and precipitation have the greatest impact, but the impacts of humidity and solar radiation vary.</p>
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21 pages, 1921 KiB  
Article
Exploring Clean Energy Technology Diffusion and Development in the Yellow River Basin Amid Water Resource Constraints
by Hai Jin and Lianyan Xu
Sustainability 2025, 17(1), 240; https://doi.org/10.3390/su17010240 - 31 Dec 2024
Viewed by 498
Abstract
Clean energy serves as a crucial means to alleviate water resource shortages and ensure power production safety. This study delves into clean energy diffusion and development within the confines of the Yellow River Basin, considering water resource constraints. It examines the dynamic evolution [...] Read more.
Clean energy serves as a crucial means to alleviate water resource shortages and ensure power production safety. This study delves into clean energy diffusion and development within the confines of the Yellow River Basin, considering water resource constraints. It examines the dynamic evolution of the strategic choices made by local governments and the expansion of clean energy businesses among power generation groups using an evolutionary game model. Additionally, the study employs the L-V model to elucidate the diffusion and competition dynamics between fossil fuel power generation technology (FFGT) and clean energy generation technology (CEGT). To provide a more scientific elucidation of this process, actual values are utilized for simulation. The findings indicate that: (1) The strategic decisions of power generation groups are influenced not only by local government guidance but also by advancement in clean energy technology and cost reduction efforts; (2) the implementation of water resource tax guidance strategies yields noticeable effects, with higher taxes correlating to increased willingness among power generation groups to expand clean energy businesses; (3) in contrast to diffusion speed, the final state of equilibrium attained by the two technologies is more closely tied to the competition coefficient. A higher competition coefficient leads clean energy generation technology to gain a competitive advantage in the market, potentially dominating it entirely. Based on these conclusions, pertinent policy suggestions are proposed to drive the advancement of clean energy and facilitate energy structure transformation in the Yellow River Basin. Full article
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<p>Strategy choices of both parties in the game.</p>
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<p>Lotka–Volterra Model on the Diffusion of Clean Energy Generation Technology.</p>
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<p>Dynamic evolution of the FFGT and the CEGT under different conditions.</p>
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<p>The influence of different government subsidies on the strategy choice of game players.</p>
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<p>The influence of different water resource taxes on strategy selection of game players.</p>
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<p>The influence of different cost input on strategy selection of game players.</p>
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<p>Diffusion processes of the FFGT and the CEGT at different diffusion rates.</p>
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<p>Diffusion processes of the FFGT and the CEGT at different competition coefficients.</p>
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