Cy Young Award Projections
Projection System
About the Cy Young Award Projections:
These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)
- Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
- FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W
Data Export [Members Only]
American League
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Tarik Skubal | 192.0 | 18 | 4 | 30.3% | 4.6% | 2.39 | 2.49 | 5.9 | 6.5 | 85.8 | 128.6 | 192.0 | 18 | 4 | 30.3% | 4.6% | 2.39 | 2.49 | 5.9 | 6.5 | 85.8 | 128.6 |
| 2 | Seth Lugo | 206.2 | 16 | 9 | 21.7% | 5.7% | 3.00 | 3.25 | 4.7 | 5.9 | 68.4 | 97.2 | 206.2 | 16 | 9 | 21.7% | 5.7% | 3.00 | 3.25 | 4.7 | 5.9 | 68.4 | 97.2 |
| 3 | Cole Ragans | 186.1 | 11 | 9 | 29.3% | 8.8% | 3.14 | 2.99 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 61.5 | 92.6 | 186.1 | 11 | 9 | 29.3% | 8.8% | 3.14 | 2.99 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 61.5 | 92.6 |
| 4 | Logan Gilbert | 208.2 | 9 | 12 | 27.4% | 4.6% | 3.23 | 3.27 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 60.3 | 88.9 | 208.2 | 9 | 12 | 27.4% | 4.6% | 3.23 | 3.27 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 60.3 | 88.9 |
| 5 | Corbin Burnes | 194.1 | 15 | 9 | 23.1% | 6.1% | 2.92 | 3.55 | 3.7 | 4.4 | 67.3 | 87.8 | 194.1 | 15 | 9 | 23.1% | 6.1% | 2.92 | 3.55 | 3.7 | 4.4 | 67.3 | 87.8 |
| 6 | Framber Valdez | 176.1 | 15 | 7 | 24.0% | 7.8% | 2.91 | 3.25 | 3.6 | 5.1 | 63.1 | 87.6 | 176.1 | 15 | 7 | 24.0% | 7.8% | 2.91 | 3.25 | 3.6 | 5.1 | 63.1 | 87.6 |
| 7 | George Kirby | 191.0 | 14 | 11 | 23.0% | 3.0% | 3.53 | 3.26 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 52.4 | 78.7 | 191.0 | 14 | 11 | 23.0% | 3.0% | 3.53 | 3.26 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 52.4 | 78.7 |
| 8 | Bryce Miller | 180.1 | 12 | 8 | 24.3% | 6.4% | 2.94 | 3.58 | 2.8 | 4.5 | 60.3 | 78.7 | 180.1 | 12 | 8 | 24.3% | 6.4% | 2.94 | 3.58 | 2.8 | 4.5 | 60.3 | 78.7 |
| 9 | Tanner Houck | 178.2 | 9 | 10 | 20.7% | 6.5% | 3.12 | 3.32 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 51.7 | 75.2 | 178.2 | 9 | 10 | 20.7% | 6.5% | 3.12 | 3.32 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 51.7 | 75.2 |
| 10 | Garrett Crochet | 146.0 | 6 | 12 | 35.1% | 5.5% | 3.58 | 2.69 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 41.9 | 71.3 | 146.0 | 6 | 12 | 35.1% | 5.5% | 3.58 | 2.69 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 41.9 | 71.3 |
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Tarik Skubal | 192.0 | 18 | 4 | 30.3% | 4.6% | 2.39 | 2.49 | 5.9 | 6.5 | 85.8 | 128.6 | 192.0 | 18 | 4 | 30.3% | 4.6% | 2.39 | 2.49 | 5.9 | 6.5 | 85.8 | 128.6 |
| 2 | Seth Lugo | 206.2 | 16 | 9 | 21.7% | 5.7% | 3.00 | 3.25 | 4.7 | 5.9 | 68.4 | 97.2 | 206.2 | 16 | 9 | 21.7% | 5.7% | 3.00 | 3.25 | 4.7 | 5.9 | 68.4 | 97.2 |
| 3 | Cole Ragans | 186.1 | 11 | 9 | 29.3% | 8.8% | 3.14 | 2.99 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 61.5 | 92.6 | 186.1 | 11 | 9 | 29.3% | 8.8% | 3.14 | 2.99 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 61.5 | 92.6 |
| 4 | Logan Gilbert | 208.2 | 9 | 12 | 27.4% | 4.6% | 3.23 | 3.27 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 60.3 | 88.9 | 208.2 | 9 | 12 | 27.4% | 4.6% | 3.23 | 3.27 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 60.3 | 88.9 |
| 5 | Corbin Burnes | 194.1 | 15 | 9 | 23.1% | 6.1% | 2.92 | 3.55 | 3.7 | 4.4 | 67.3 | 87.8 | 194.1 | 15 | 9 | 23.1% | 6.1% | 2.92 | 3.55 | 3.7 | 4.4 | 67.3 | 87.8 |
| 6 | Framber Valdez | 176.1 | 15 | 7 | 24.0% | 7.8% | 2.91 | 3.25 | 3.6 | 5.1 | 63.1 | 87.6 | 176.1 | 15 | 7 | 24.0% | 7.8% | 2.91 | 3.25 | 3.6 | 5.1 | 63.1 | 87.6 |
| 7 | George Kirby | 191.0 | 14 | 11 | 23.0% | 3.0% | 3.53 | 3.26 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 52.4 | 78.7 | 191.0 | 14 | 11 | 23.0% | 3.0% | 3.53 | 3.26 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 52.4 | 78.7 |
| 8 | Bryce Miller | 180.1 | 12 | 8 | 24.3% | 6.4% | 2.94 | 3.58 | 2.8 | 4.5 | 60.3 | 78.7 | 180.1 | 12 | 8 | 24.3% | 6.4% | 2.94 | 3.58 | 2.8 | 4.5 | 60.3 | 78.7 |
| 9 | Tanner Houck | 178.2 | 9 | 10 | 20.7% | 6.5% | 3.12 | 3.32 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 51.7 | 75.2 | 178.2 | 9 | 10 | 20.7% | 6.5% | 3.12 | 3.32 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 51.7 | 75.2 |
| 10 | Garrett Crochet | 146.0 | 6 | 12 | 35.1% | 5.5% | 3.58 | 2.69 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 41.9 | 71.3 | 146.0 | 6 | 12 | 35.1% | 5.5% | 3.58 | 2.69 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 41.9 | 71.3 |
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National League
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Chris Sale | 177.2 | 18 | 3 | 32.1% | 5.6% | 2.38 | 2.09 | 6.4 | 7.0 | 82.3 | 130.0 | 177.2 | 18 | 3 | 32.1% | 5.6% | 2.38 | 2.09 | 6.4 | 7.0 | 82.3 | 130.0 |
| 2 | Zack Wheeler | 200.0 | 16 | 7 | 28.5% | 6.6% | 2.57 | 3.13 | 5.4 | 7.0 | 81.4 | 111.9 | 200.0 | 16 | 7 | 28.5% | 6.6% | 2.57 | 3.13 | 5.4 | 7.0 | 81.4 | 111.9 |
| 3 | Paul Skenes | 133.0 | 11 | 3 | 33.1% | 6.2% | 1.96 | 2.44 | 4.3 | 5.7 | 65.5 | 95.9 | 133.0 | 11 | 3 | 33.1% | 6.2% | 1.96 | 2.44 | 4.3 | 5.7 | 65.5 | 95.9 |
| 4 | Logan Webb | 204.2 | 13 | 10 | 20.5% | 5.9% | 3.47 | 2.95 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 53.5 | 88.9 | 204.2 | 13 | 10 | 20.5% | 5.9% | 3.47 | 2.95 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 53.5 | 88.9 |
| 5 | Dylan Cease | 189.1 | 14 | 11 | 29.4% | 8.5% | 3.47 | 3.10 | 4.8 | 3.8 | 58.1 | 87.6 | 189.1 | 14 | 11 | 29.4% | 8.5% | 3.47 | 3.10 | 4.8 | 3.8 | 58.1 | 87.6 |
| 6 | Michael King | 173.2 | 13 | 9 | 27.7% | 8.7% | 2.95 | 3.33 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 62.9 | 85.4 | 173.2 | 13 | 9 | 27.7% | 8.7% | 2.95 | 3.33 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 62.9 | 85.4 |
| 7 | Reynaldo López | 135.2 | 8 | 5 | 27.3% | 7.7% | 1.99 | 2.92 | 3.5 | 5.9 | 60.6 | 84.5 | 135.2 | 8 | 5 | 27.3% | 7.7% | 1.99 | 2.92 | 3.5 | 5.9 | 60.6 | 84.5 |
| 8 | Cristopher Sánchez | 181.2 | 11 | 9 | 20.3% | 5.8% | 3.32 | 3.00 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 50.1 | 80.5 | 181.2 | 11 | 9 | 20.3% | 5.8% | 3.32 | 3.00 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 50.1 | 80.5 |
| 9 | Shota Imanaga | 173.1 | 15 | 3 | 25.1% | 4.0% | 2.91 | 3.72 | 3.0 | 4.3 | 63.1 | 78.1 | 173.1 | 15 | 3 | 25.1% | 4.0% | 2.91 | 3.72 | 3.0 | 4.3 | 63.1 | 78.1 |
| 10 | Max Fried | 174.1 | 11 | 10 | 23.2% | 8.0% | 3.25 | 3.33 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 51.8 | 74.4 | 174.1 | 11 | 10 | 23.2% | 8.0% | 3.25 | 3.33 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 51.8 | 74.4 |
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Chris Sale | 177.2 | 18 | 3 | 32.1% | 5.6% | 2.38 | 2.09 | 6.4 | 7.0 | 82.3 | 130.0 | 177.2 | 18 | 3 | 32.1% | 5.6% | 2.38 | 2.09 | 6.4 | 7.0 | 82.3 | 130.0 |
| 2 | Zack Wheeler | 200.0 | 16 | 7 | 28.5% | 6.6% | 2.57 | 3.13 | 5.4 | 7.0 | 81.4 | 111.9 | 200.0 | 16 | 7 | 28.5% | 6.6% | 2.57 | 3.13 | 5.4 | 7.0 | 81.4 | 111.9 |
| 3 | Paul Skenes | 133.0 | 11 | 3 | 33.1% | 6.2% | 1.96 | 2.44 | 4.3 | 5.7 | 65.5 | 95.9 | 133.0 | 11 | 3 | 33.1% | 6.2% | 1.96 | 2.44 | 4.3 | 5.7 | 65.5 | 95.9 |
| 4 | Logan Webb | 204.2 | 13 | 10 | 20.5% | 5.9% | 3.47 | 2.95 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 53.5 | 88.9 | 204.2 | 13 | 10 | 20.5% | 5.9% | 3.47 | 2.95 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 53.5 | 88.9 |
| 5 | Dylan Cease | 189.1 | 14 | 11 | 29.4% | 8.5% | 3.47 | 3.10 | 4.8 | 3.8 | 58.1 | 87.6 | 189.1 | 14 | 11 | 29.4% | 8.5% | 3.47 | 3.10 | 4.8 | 3.8 | 58.1 | 87.6 |
| 6 | Michael King | 173.2 | 13 | 9 | 27.7% | 8.7% | 2.95 | 3.33 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 62.9 | 85.4 | 173.2 | 13 | 9 | 27.7% | 8.7% | 2.95 | 3.33 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 62.9 | 85.4 |
| 7 | Reynaldo López | 135.2 | 8 | 5 | 27.3% | 7.7% | 1.99 | 2.92 | 3.5 | 5.9 | 60.6 | 84.5 | 135.2 | 8 | 5 | 27.3% | 7.7% | 1.99 | 2.92 | 3.5 | 5.9 | 60.6 | 84.5 |
| 8 | Cristopher Sánchez | 181.2 | 11 | 9 | 20.3% | 5.8% | 3.32 | 3.00 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 50.1 | 80.5 | 181.2 | 11 | 9 | 20.3% | 5.8% | 3.32 | 3.00 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 50.1 | 80.5 |
| 9 | Shota Imanaga | 173.1 | 15 | 3 | 25.1% | 4.0% | 2.91 | 3.72 | 3.0 | 4.3 | 63.1 | 78.1 | 173.1 | 15 | 3 | 25.1% | 4.0% | 2.91 | 3.72 | 3.0 | 4.3 | 63.1 | 78.1 |
| 10 | Max Fried | 174.1 | 11 | 10 | 23.2% | 8.0% | 3.25 | 3.33 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 51.8 | 74.4 | 174.1 | 11 | 10 | 23.2% | 8.0% | 3.25 | 3.33 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 51.8 | 74.4 |
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