Cleveland or San Diego for me. SD is a fun team. Detroit and KC are stories but neither team is very good and I'd rather a somewhat good team actually win. I actually like the Mets because their owner spends to win and I like if that's rewarded. Are they good? Nope. Don't want them to win but I could be fine with them going a bit further.

No, the world doesn't need another Yankees-Dodgers series.

Funny, my appetite is the exact opposite. Bring on the behemoths! Judge vs. Ohtani.

Bring on the behemoths! Judge vs. Ohtani.

Actually Judge-Ohtani is quite appealing. (So is Witt-Harper, or various combinations of those players.) It's the teams that I'm tired of.

Cleveland - Detroit could be a slaughter unless Skubal comes up big Tuesday.  I listened to game 1 on the radio while driving, and that was a beat-down.  That Guardians bullpen man ... must be nice.  Not sure we've ever had a pen come close to what Cleveland has?

Indians or Tigers

Go Guard’s! First team in playoff history with 4 Canadians on the roster: Josh and Bo Naylor (a better brother act than Rob and Rich Butler), lights out reliever Cade Smith (74 appearances, 0.90 WHIP), and recent call-up Ed Sobrowski who hasn’t given up an earned run yet in the 12 2/3 relief innings since his MLB debut.

Sign # 987 that I am old - I heard Bob Costas say that Salvador Perez had 27 home runs and 104 runs batted in this year, and my first thought was "wow, those are Willie Upshaw numbers!"

My time for religiously following baseball has definitely dwindled over the years, but my hate for the Yankees still seems to burn hot.

That said, I think I would only tune into a Yankees-Dodgers or Yankees-Mets World Series. Those are compelling to this "old-timer".

I watched about 15 minutes of the Yankees/Royals game it was mostly just bad umpiring screwing up KC. Same as usual.

I watched about 15 minutes of the Yankees/Royals game it was mostly just bad umpiring screwing up KC. Same as usual."

Revenge of Ben Revere. (Reverenge?)

Spicy game between the Padres and Dodgers. It's almost like they don't like each other.

Matt Bush is back in jail after causing a multiple car crash while fleeing cops while intoxicated in Arlington. 
Driving while intoxicated, accident involving injury and evading.

Terrible about Bush. 

Wilner had a story about Schneider in the Star today.   Schneider noted that the Blue Jays are the only organization of his adult life.  I hadn't clocked just what a lifer he was til reading that.  I'm happy he's getting one more chance.  More and more, this upcoming season feels like it will be pivotal, and failure could finally challenge the stability of the FO, management and the core of Beau and Vlad.
Fun game in Philadelphia yesterday! 

Did any of our esteemed minor league crew predict that Jon Berti would start for the Yankees in a playoff game AT FIRST BASE? Where have you gone, Lou Gehrig (and all the other first basemen who can hit)?

Skubal, Carpenter and the Tigers strike back. The game was scoreless heading to the ninth; it's now 3-0 Detroit. Having an ace (who is on his game) is a beautiful thing in a playoff series. Still a half inning to go, though.

The backhanded slight of Berti and 1B is totally valid (seriously), but I will just take the opposite tack and comment on how Berti is just another part of the #youneverknow of baseball. Berti has managed to accumulate about 8 WAR in under 1500 PA's across 7 seasons and now has career earnings of about $8.5m. I, for one, never ever saw that coming. For context, Berti has accumulated double the career WAR as Travis Snyder.

Berti and 1B is totally valid

Sure. The guy is 34 years old, he's been a professional baseball players for 14 years and he's never played one single inning at first base. Anywhere. Ever.

Damn I knew the Jays should have kept Anthony Banda.

In all seriousness I see Teoscar is now back to playing some left field.

4-1 Royals over NYY after 4 innings. Hopefully Ragans can go at least one more inning (at a minimum I imagine he'll face Soto to start the bottom of the fifth). Go KC.

Tim Mayza sighting!

Mayza made Yankees playoff roster but Stroman didn't. This Yankee team just isn't very scary to me and medium and long-term will have so many issues. Austin Wells is cleanup hitter? Berti playing first base? They don't have money to fix these issues not to mention losing their current free agents.

I am thinking of a Sonny Gray for George Springer swap with Jays adding in prospects and/or paying some of Springer's salary. Gray obviously much better but his salary was all backloaded so he has $2/65 M and Springer has 2/$48 which is significant difference. Probably a long shot though as if they want to east salary, trading him for straight prospects makes more sense.

I do like the idea of asking about Pablo Lopez from Minnesota. They are a super cheap organization with no wiggle room in payroll and Lopez has 3/$65 left and is coming off an unlucky season but is a great pitcher and Twins would likely be very interested in players who can play now so they can compete for cheap (Horwitz, Roden, Orelvis, etc...). Obviously, a long shot as well but I guess my point is that I would like the Jays to be trying some different things and taking on salary via trade is something this organization should be doing. There are a lot of cheap owners looking to shed payroll. Take advantage.

Haven't been watching the playoffs closely, more tuning in here and there to see what's up. All 4 division series tied at 1-1 is kind of cool though. Guardians, Royals, Phillies, and Padres are my cheering on teams right now, but easily in flux. #1 is to see the Yankees get knocked out. Hard. Read somewhere that to make MLB reach NBA levels of 'better teams wins' you'd need best of 75 series which obviously can't happen. So the playoffs are a fun 'who knows' set of series.

I understand payroll with Arb included is about just under $200 million. I can see them playing it safe and signing 2 relievers for $16-20 mil/year but for 2 years so the same cost in 2026. So somehow get a strong pen to go with an already strong rotation. The position players most likely will have better O than in 2023 & 2024 but I don't know about the D.

I would like to see a better rebuild this time compared to the last rebuild. We already have some star players in their prime in Vlad, Varsho & Kirk. Pitching wise I am hoping for Manoah to be back and dominant. Y Rodriguez and B Francis are hopefully dominant/good. I mean #2/3 types. I don't mind Macko and Tiedemann in the pen to start off their careers.

More help from the farm is needed in this 2nd rebuild. Barger and Orelvis have power. Roden and Kasevich are both good IMO. Hope further development of Kendry Rojas over the next 2 years as a SP.

Hope they are able to sign Vlad long term. Rogers is rich but the Luxury tax barrier is a problem. However the Luxury Tax barrier will increase each year. Springer, Gausman and Bassitt will come off the books within 2 years. I also expect Berrios to opt out when those clauses are activated.

RIP Luis Tiant - one of my all time favourites - right down to emulating his wind up in little league to the immense disdain of my coach/father.

Luis Tiant... emulating his wind up

Ditto. You couldn't be a kid who saw him pitch without wanting to imitate him.

The thing about Tiant's wind-up (and Fernando Valenzuela's) wasn't just that the mechanics of the motion go against most modern (and rationale) teachings for efficient pitch delivery its that he literally took his eyes off the C (as did Fernando) mid way through his wind-up. As someone who pitched at the most basic of levels, it seems impossible to me that anyone could repeatably throw strikes while taking your eyes off the target. But he did it and with great panache:)

I always think of Roger Angell's wonderful description of the various Tiant actions on the mound in Five Seasons

"The basic Tiant repertoire seems to include:
(1) Call the Osteopath: In midpitch, the man suffers an agonizing seizure in the central cervical region, which he attempts to fight off with a sharp backward twist of the head.
(2) Out of the Woodshed: Just before releasing the ball, he steps over a raised sill and simultaneously ducks his head to avoid conking it on the low doorframe.
(3) The Runaway Taxi: Before the pivot, he sees a vehicle bearing down on him at top speed, and pulls back his entire upper body just in time to avoid a nasty accident.
(4) Falling Off the Fence: An attack of vertigo nearly causes him to topple over backward on the mound. Strongly suggests a careless dude on the top rung of the corral.
5) The Slipper Kick: In the midpitch, he surprisingly decides to get rid of his left shoe.
(6) The Low-Flying Plane (a subtle development and amalgam of 1, 3, and 4 above): While he is pivoting, an F-105 buzzes the ball park, passing over the infield from the third-base to the first-base side at a height of eighty feet. He follows it all the way with his eyes."

He was definitely a better player than a number of his contemporaries who are already in the Hall.

It is very sad the HOF put in a 'meh' guy like Jack Morris, but kept out a superior pitcher in Tiant. Morris had a 105 ERA+ vs Tiant's 114, Morris a 3.80 playoff ERA vs Tiant's 2.86 ERA. Basically Morris got the story (10 shutout innings game 7 thanks to a Lonnie Smith horrid baserunning error, most wins in the 80's) while Tiant didn't. Quite sad really how badly the voters will go for stories over results.

Sean Manaea (7 scoreless innings so far tonight) was a solid FA signing by the Mets. And Alonso is having a great postseason with strong OBP and slugging stats.

Thanks for that Angell quote Magpie - to use a modern expression - "Game knows Game".

Love how Twitter is going silly over a former New York Mets GM (Zack Scott) saying the Jays almost had Lindor and he would've signed long term had he been traded here. Basically the story (told by multiple sources now) is the Jays & Mets both agreed to what Cleveland asked for so Cleveland took the night to think about it and the next day took the Mets deal. Some are calling for Atkins head over this old news, especially mixed in with being near but not quite on Ohtani, Verlander, Schwarber, and Seager. I see it as the Jays knowing who to target but someone else was willing to go a bit further or the player decided they wanted to go to a different city for whatever reason.

Far better to keep being in the race but coming up just short on the right player than blowing a fortune on the wrong one (Carlos Correa looks like that for the Twins for example). Plus they did sign/trade for Ryu, Gausman, Berrios, Bassitt. While their bad ones were normally 1 year deals (Turner, Kiermaier for example) with the worst probably being that Kendrys Morales 3 year deal (waste of $31 mil).

A large segment of Toronto “fans” have convinced themselves that it’s somehow a bad and unrealistic to think the Jays and Soto would have mutual interest. Don’t personally understand why that’s so far fetched. This isn’t 2015 and the GM and roster is passing the hat around in an attempt to sign Ervin Santana - it’s a team that put 700m aside less than a year ago.

I think Soto is possible I just think some team will probably outspend Jays. I don't know why you'd be upset about almost getting players. Jays are chasing everyone and are going to lose out most of the time Becuase there are 29 other teams. I'd much rather be in on everyone and get someone occasionally than to not even try.

I don't think outspending is the issue. There will quality teams -- like the Dodgers last year -- that will match whatever the Blue Jays are willing to spend. Given the decline in the Blue Jays organization's MLB performance and farm system, Soto will likely choose a team that is more likely to win a WS in the next five years.

Also, I don't believe the Blue Jays are willing to extend Vladdy and sign Soto. I doubt Soto would want to come to Toronto just as Vladdy and Bo are on their way out.

One thing the Blue Jays had when they signed Springer was a good story to tell about their plan to compete in the coming seasons. Springer mentioned this at the time as one of the things that persuaded him to choose Toronto. I'm not sure the Blue Jays have a similarly good story to tell at the moment. That is an intangible factor that may make it harder for them to attract elite free agents this off-season.

Greenfrog you sound incredibly worried about the Blue Jays ability to attract free agents this season.

I don't think it's hard to sell Toronto or even the Jays. "yes, we had a bad year this year, but we made the playoffs the three previous years and ownership is commited to spend to a level where we can compete every year. (and if necessary) We can also alleviate those concerns by giving you a couple of opt outs."

Jays fans are baffling. We have been one of the better teams in baseball over the past five years and we have one of the better owners on baseball and they act like we're the Rockies or something.

Shapiro likes to run things himself but with the permission of ownership. Therefore it seems the fans don't have any say in anything.

Lindor was traded to the Mets in Jan 2021. I don't know who Cleveland got. Both Cleveland and the Mets were good in 2022 and 2024 and bad in 2021 and 2023. I don't know what Cleveland wanted from the Jays that off season. That off season we signed Springer.

All speculation is basically nonsense. And we all know that.

The Blue Jays will be able to attract free agents. But will they be able
to attract elite ones?

Last year they wanted Chapman. They got IKF. They wanted Ohtani (and, later, Pederson). They got Turner. They wanted Yamamoto (admittedly as a dark horse entrant). They got Yariel. And so on.

A year later, the front office’s narrative is worse. The team’s run differential cratered in 2024. There were reports Bo wanted out. Bassitt made pointed comments about the team’s endemic problems. An unnamed player described the clubhouse in profane terms. Jeff Passan said that no one is putting the Blue Jays front office on a list of the best front offices in MLB. And so on.

In other words, the vibes around the team have changed. That matters, in my view.

They signed Ryu a few months after finishing a season where they intentionally tanked. I don’t think attracting FAs will be an issue as long as the money is there. The Jays gave Ryu the 4th year that no other team was willing to give him. They gave Springer the 6th year that no other team was willing to give him. I’m sure Bassitt wasn’t getting offered from other teams what the Jays offered him, and so on. The only elite FA is Soto and that’s unlikely because of how high the price figures to go. If the Jays offered him the most money/term, by a sizable margin, then I don’t see him turning that down. If offers are close then I’m sure he’d prefer NY. Either way I think Soto is a pipe dream. Every other FA seems fair game though.

"Soto's buddy shared some interesting free agency gossip to NJ Advance Media.

“Look for the Blue Jays to make an astronomical offer,” Soto’s pal said by phone.

The Blue Jays?

“I heard it with my own ears,” he said before sharing details."

They had money for Ohtani, sooooo https://t.co/aTxwkay1sH

— Bobby Milone (@BobbyMilone29) October 9, 2024

They must be getting ready for season ticket selling season.

The media seems to hate the Blue Jays and love to target Blue Jays fans on social media.

I would expect the Mets to make an astronomical offer.
Now that they seem to be competitive, it's the right time to spend to outrage.

There are 30 teams in baseball. Most don't win the WS each year. Most don't sign the best FA each year. Even if only half the teams are trying to be competitive each year, and only half of those have the budget for a top FA, and only half of those have the position fit you are still dealing with 3-4 teams making serious offers on the best FA, and by definition 2-3 of those will fail. I.e., you fail more often than you succeed.

Some teams may not really be in on top players, but try to save face by pretending, so it is understandable that folks might be skeptical. And there are some possible downsides to Toronto including crossing the border for some, and needing to play in the AL East (which is often a tougher or toughest division which suppresses stats and wins). But there are upsides too with a large fan base, a nice city, a slightly more sane media environment than NY/Bos. I would expect it is more likely than not that any top FA the Jays want will be more likely to sign elsewhere than here just because that's the way it goes for top FA for all teams. But I think the Jays have demonstrated a well above average track record on FA signings, so I'm willing to give Shapiro / Atkins the benefit of the doubt on FA signings.

Frankly the harder part this offseason might be less landing a top person than getting the bullpen into a good state.

The vast majority of the local media following the Jays have worked for the same company as the Jays. That will change a bit going forward with Bell now no longer in the ownership. Generally, the Jays are subject to the least challenging media crew of any that I can think of. In places like NY or Chicago they would laugh at the level of media criticism that the Jays are subjected to.

Bell/MLSE wasn't involved in the Jays ownership, but the point still stands. Our local media seem scared to bite the hand that might eventually feed them. I miss McCown on 590.

I expect a few of these types of 'announcements' going forward. First the Jays will chase Soto, soon Bregman - both fit perfectly into holes in the Jays lineup, both would have a weakening effect on their clubs by leaving which would help reduce the competition for the Jays. Will either sign here? Unlikely. But both are painfully obvious targets. The bullpen is also a painfully obvious are to attack but star free agents are few and far between there. Starting pitching is a less likely target with the depth there now and the high cost, even with stars available. Jays would have no interest in a star CF/SS/2B/C right now but might have interest at 1B if Vlad moves to 3B and/or Horwitz is part of a trade to improve elsewhere. Plus someone in the new year could get desperate at any position and drop into the Jays lap ala Semien in 2021.

The drop from Soto to #2 in the OF is big - 26 year old Soto 8.1 fWAR, #2 is 32 year old Jurickson Profar 4.3, then 32 year old Teoscar Hernández 3.5. Basically you lose a TON of value dropping from Soto to anyone else in the market. Plus Soto is in his prime and will be for years to come. If the Yankees are knocked out this round, and Soto continues to have 0 R 0 RBI (despite a 375 avg) you can bet the boo birds of NY will be out for blood. Yankee fans are known for being crazy with expectations (WS or bust every year). Yeah, Stanton is the big bum there, but Soto can see how the fans there act. Does he want to be part of that circus? Yeah, rewards are big, but day-to-day it can be a grind there I suspect. I'd bet he'd love to play with Vlad, it won't be the #1 factor, but it will be there. No idea how well he and Judge get along but there is lots of evidence Soto and Vlad do (like this from this year).

Brain lock on my part - thx 92-93

“the Jays almost had Lindor and he would've signed long term”

Right on cue, Lindor hits a grand slam and puts the Mets up 4-1 in game 4 of the NLDS.

Teoscar hit a huge grand slam yesterday to bring his team back into the game down 6-1.

"Adding power is the low-hanging fruit."

Teams are not talking to players until the World Series is over.
The only real info available now is what teams free agents would like to play for. And they are not sharing that.

No third rate media in NY has info on much money Rogers plans to spend in the offseason and what limit there can be on individual contracts.

"There are 30 teams in baseball. Most don't win the WS each year. Most don't sign the best FA each year. Even if only half the teams are trying to be competitive each year, and only half of those have the budget for a top FA, and only half of those have the position fit you are still dealing with 3-4 teams making serious offers on the best FA, and by definition 2-3 of those will fail. I.e., you fail more often than you succeed."

Exactly. Jays have signed top free agents and will continue to pursue them and sign them but there are a lot of teams going for them and not getting one isn't a sign that players don't want to come to Toronto. Yankees biggest free agent signing last year was Stroman. Does that mean players don't want to go there? Aside from Ohtani and Yamamoto, the market for free agents was very cool last year. There were only 3 (4 if you count Nola re-signing) contracts that went over $100M total value. In 2023, there were 9. In 2022, there were 11. This year, I expect Soto, Burnes, Snell, Bregman, Adames,and Fried to get there. Other guys like Alonso, Torres, Kim, etc... could if length of deal is there.

Bullpen will be tricky but also is very fluky. Jays absolutely need to sign a late inning guy and probably another decent arm. The simple way would be to sign something like Clay Holmes and Ryan Stanek. Problem here is money. Jays already spending big on pitching and need money for offense.

Arizona Fall League has started. Pinto and Rojas are the two guys I'm most interested in but a few other guys worth watching. Pinto is one of those rare hitters that could be taken in Rule 5 because he's versatile, can play decent defense, and is fast. I'd much rather protect him over some fungible reliever.

I have to disagree with the groupthink on this issue.

Have the Blue Jays signed higher-end quality free agents before? Yes, they’ve done this a few times (Martin, Springer, Gausman, maybe Ryu although $80m for four years of a late-30s SP arguably doesn’t belong in this category). Have they ever signed a top-of-the-market free agent (at the $300m+ level of Judge, Cole, Ohtani, Seager, Turner). No, they have not. Not even close.

The few times the team has added a mid-to-higher-end FA (say $80m-plus) has been when they’re starting an apparent window of contention. That is not where the team is now. Unless they extend Vladdy, I just don’t see a big outlay for any one player, extension or FA signing, this winter.

And remember, the money saved during rebuilding years is never put back into the team during contention - they merely spend what they should be spending based on their market size. Essentially people are happy with Rogers pocketing the money. Bryce Harper signed for 13/330 in 2019, but the Jays and their 114MM payroll weren't interested. They were a playoff team the next season, and he'd be great to have around now at 26M per year (and subsequently they wouldn't have signed Springer).

There is no reason why the Jays shouldn't be able to sign Soto AND Guerrero long-term.

"And remember, the money saved during rebuilding years is never put back into the team during contention"

yep yep yep.

"Have the Blue Jays signed higher-end quality free agents before? Yes, they’ve done this a few times (Martin, Springer, Gausman, maybe Ryu although $80m for four years of a late-30s SP arguably doesn’t belong in this category). Have they ever signed a top-of-the-market free agent (at the $300m+ level of Judge, Cole, Ohtani, Seager, Turner). No, they have not. Not even close."

They literally made the biggest offer in major league history to Ohtani last year. Besides, that's moving the goalposts dramatically. "They haven't signed big free agents" and "they haven't signed any of the 5 most expensive free agents" are very very different things. I think in most cases, I wouldn't do those massive signings but guys like Ohtani or Soto would be worth it IMO.

Is there any data to support that Rogers (high spending team) does not put money back during contending years? The high spending started in 2020 with the signing of Ryu.

Spotrac has the Jays payroll as the 9th highest in MLB this year, and MLB gives Toronto the 7th highest "market score", making them ineligible for revenue sharing. Good thing they saved all that money in 2019-2021 running a subpar payroll.

Rogers has always spent money when called on - for year end payrolls the Jays were top 10 in 2013-2014-2015, 11th for 16/17/18, 20th in 19, 18th in 20, 12th in 21, 10th in 22, 8th in '23, waiting on '24 final figures (6th on opening day). Back in the JPR days they started cheap (that was JPR's selling point, he claimed he could do a contender cheaply), but climbed to 13th in '08 (10th at start of season) when it was felt the team would contend. Given them a contender and they'll spend as it has been proven the Jays get far higher TV ratings and far more fans in the stands for a contender than a pretender. The Jays spread for that is massive vs other teams, over 1 million, up to 2 million extra fans in the stands, and TV ratings for a non-contender dropped as low as 100k per game but for a contender are over 700k and often over 1 million even in spring training (thus suggesting the extra shows they put on air around the Jays during contending years also get good ratings). For a multi-media company like Rogers the Jays need to contend or at least get buzz. I suspect a non-contending 2025 would cost Shapiro and/or Atkins their jobs. 1 non-contending year Rogers can live with but if they have a second...

A Soto signing would help, like Clemens did in '97 (signed to a then record deal), but if the team flops in '25 then no signing would keep the fans in the stands or tuning in on TV.

There was a short rebuild after the Jays failed to reach the postseason in 2017.
That lasted 2 years. Atkins described those years back in 2017 as "less competitive" and "more competitive" before getting back to contention.
There never was anything specific about starting a contention window. They were spending less when the team was not competitive.
The only thing that matters when the team is competitive is the existing payroll, not any presupposed window.
Having signed Springer, the payroll rose and there was less money to spend elsewhere.
Because they failed at developing starting pitching, they invested in that with Gausman, Berrios and Bassitt.
It think the front office has projections for free agents and is trying to get the best return on investment.

The risk with long contracts is injury and declining performances.
Free agents don't sign with Toronto for the location or the tax advantages and don't ask for trade protection.
Players can be traded if necessary, so there is no need to time a specific window.

RE: somewhere above ... Speaking of Hall of Fame slights (please see John's Luis Tiant comment) and any NY Mets' references ... Caution : American Politico discussion ahead ... I came across a former Blue Jay great mention in a discussion on Athletes and Political Stances on a Francesca Fiorentini you tube video ... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jzBMRwPn_AU ... at 6:55 ... I had a vague recollection of Carlos Delgado's stance but I never knew the particulars ... but now I know why Carlos Delgato wasn't elected to the Baseball HoF ... Kudos to his integrity and sitting for his princples ...

If only Rogers spent and signed the best free agents like Detroit, Cleveland and San Diego.

Hey, the Braves just fired their hitting coach (kevin Seitzer) and his assistant (Bobby Magallanes).

Do not score 243 fewer runs than you did the year before.

So both NY's go to the semi-finals as KC goes kaput 3-1. Cleveland forces a game 5. SD/LAD game 5 Friday, Det/Cle Saturday. Sunday the Mets play in either SD or LA, Monday the Yankees at home vs Cleveland or Detroit. Just hope both NY teams get knocked out in the semi's.

I like the "less competitive" and "more competitive" categories concept used by Atkins. He did not say "tank". Nobody says tank. 2017 record 76 wins, 2018 73 wins and 2024 74 wins should be considered less competitive once the final numbers are in. 86 wins probably means more competitive. 92-96 wins would be the highest tier as strong team.

How fast can a team get to more competitive? Seattle 89 and 85 were more competitive IMO but they are stuck there sort off. When you can get to the 86 win more competitive category then worry about building to the "strong 92-96 win team".

I expect the Jays to have a shot at 86 wins "more competitive" category next season with just a better pen. Nothing else IMO.

Detroit and Cleveland have the luxury of playing in the AL Central. San Diego does not, which is why they have 3 players signed to massive deals and ran a payroll larger than the Jays' despite it being a smaller market.

This context is about off season additions and payroll related to offseason spending, specifically to attract free agents. Where was SD's payroll entering the season compared to the Jays...

Good question about SD's payroll entering the season. I cannot give an accurate answer because I don't know how to find that information. However J Soto was traded to NYY on Dec 7th which probably reduced SD's payroll for 2024.

Good question about SD's payroll entering the season.

The Padres have back-loaded two of their most important contracts. Fernando Tatis is only 25 years old, and he's making $11 million this year - his annual tag eventually will go up to $36 million, but not until he's 30 years old in 2029. It runs another six years after that.

The Manny Machado deal may not age as gracefully as they would wish. He's 32 years old now, and earning $17 million. In two years, that figure more than doubles to $39 million - and it will run for another seven years, until he's 40.

I like Cot's Contracts for payroll data. Padres were #14 going into 2024 after 3 years of top 10 pre-season. For the CBT this year they are #11 at $231 mil. Looks like they don't have to lose anyone outside of trades this winter.

Good matchup tonight. SD (Darvish) v LAD (Yamamoto). Lots of Japanese star power in this game, including Ohtani of course. Oddsmakers give LA the edge.

Big moment for Teoscar Hernandez there - Dodgers up 2-0 now. Glad for him.

Yes, happy for Teo. The Dodgers certainly have the talent to win the WS.

At least SD got to experience winning some postseason games. They made it a competitive series.

For all the justifications (some of them valid) for “spreading the money around” on non-elite FAs, three of the four 2024 LCS teams have spent at least $300m on one or more of their players: LAD (Ohtani, Yamamoto, Betts), NYY (Cole, Judge, Stanton), NYM (Lindor). Last year’s WS champion did this too.

I can't decide if I like or don't like the SD method of building a team. They traded for great players and also got lucky by trading for unknowns that turned great. But high payroll has a price.

Same thing about Seattle. I can't decide. Not good enough results (but competitive) and economic/clean payroll. A home grown great player that got a long contract. Next year may be 3 non playoff appearances in a row.

I can't decide if I like or don't like the SD method of building a team.

Was looking at the Padres payroll going forward after their Game 5 loss to the Dodgers.

They have a lot of ugly contracts moving forward. Machado and Tatis Jr have backloaded deals that soon balloon to 39 million. Bogaerts is making 25 million and isn't the same star as he was in Boston. Joe Musgrove makes 20 million and needs TJS after getting hurt in the Wild Card Series. They gave Jake Cronenwerth a 80 million dollar deal for reasons that escape me.

They are carrying lots of future liability for a franchise that supposedly just had their financial legs cut out from under them with the bankruptcy of their regional cable provider.

We all spend a lot of time thinking about roster building but 2024 is yet another example of the fact that over time nothing correlates to winning more strongly than payrolll. The Mets, Dodgers and Yankees were 1,2,3 in opening day payroll. Really the only big picture issue is how much is Rogers willing to spend.

"nothing correlates to winning more strongly than payrolll"

I agree and would add a few more ls and half-a-dozen exclamation points and say it through a megaphone.

I agree that payroll has a high impact. But both NY teams did not make the playoffs last year. Both had a negative run differential. -12 NYM and -25 NYY. Maybe just a fluke.

" They are carrying lots of future liability"

Not as much as the Dodgers. Teoscar will be paid 8.5 million in ten payments starting in 2030. Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Will Smith and, of course, Ohtani, also have deferred money contracts and between the 5 of them, the total deferred money is $915 million.

Yeah, the Dodgers are playing with fire for the 2030's - whoever owns them at that point will have a nightmare budget to deal with thanks to hundreds of millions in sunk costs that won't help the team at that point. Economic theory is you spend what it takes to maximize profit, but with that much liability it'll be hard for them to do that unless they put aside the money now to be available then (IE: invest in safe investments that will grow to that level when the time comes).

No question though that high payroll = higher odds of winning. If it didn't then teams wouldn't spend. Ideally you do a Tampa method of building via smart trades of older expensive players for young players who are just about to hit their peak, but that is damn hard to do. Same with draft/IFA players who are very cheap until they have 3+ years in the majors, then still cheaper than free agents generally until they have 6-7 years in the majors. Again, very hard to keep doing. Both require a LOT of scouting, lots of long term thinking, stuff that is hard to measure until it is too late. By the time the Jays figured out how good their 2016 draft/IFA were they'd already cut the guys who were responsible due to poor pre-2016 performance. With players you want to cut a year too early rather than a year too late, with scouts and management you'd rather hold a year too long than cut a year too soon as scouts/front office learn as they go (see AA) while players just get worse post-age 30 as a rule.

That is what makes this winter so critical. Soto is well under 30 thus has lots of prime years left. Same for Vlad. Bo is a year older, thus 1 less prime year left and he lost this past year to injury/ineffectiveness. The kids traded for were generally a bit older - 26 in '25: Wagner, Loperfido, (non-trade guys: Vlad, Kirk, Schneider, Berroa); 24 in '25: Bloss, Schreck - these guys are at make or break ages - either make the team or forget having a really good career most likely. If a significant free agent is signed for LF then Loperfido should be put on the trade block imo he needs to play in the majors at this point, but I don't want him as the Jays everyday LF in 2025 as that would indicate the team is rebuilding (he just didn't show enough in '24 to make me think he is ready for a contending team). Wagner/Schneider/Clement can share 2B easily imo and produce decently enough.

In the NL the number one payroll team in baseball plays the number two payroll team. The Mets are 1, Dodgers 2.

In the Al the Yankees are third in baseball, the Guardians are 25th.

So we are all cheering for Cleveland, right?

Pricey players the Blue Jays have reportedly been in on in recent years:

Ohtani
Yamamoto
Cole
Seager
Verlander
Lindor (w/ anticipated extension to follow)
Soto…?

They’ve targeted good players. They just couldn’t get over the finish line with any of them.

Thats true which is why its baffling to understand their "Plan B" strategies. I find their strategy akin to "I want a home in Rosedale. They didnt accept my offer so i'm moving to Barrie."

How do you go after stud free agents without a strong execution plan? When they traded for Chapman it demonstrated good acumen to acquire what was needed via trade. Last offseason they didnt get Ohtani and did not have a deadline to allow for a trade acquisition of Soto.

LAD planned at least a year in advance to sign Ohtani and Yamamoto, clearing payroll space to make it happen. They had a sophisticated game plan to revamp
their roster and they executed it well.

The very public Ohtani pursuit might actually have hurt the Blue Jays. Now Vladdy and Bo and Soto know that Rogers has a massive trove of cash available to spend on a star player in free agency. They can hold out for a bigger contract in negotiations.

I think the Blue Jays’ Achilles’ heel has been their relatively weak farm system. With better trade chips they might have been able to pry away a Ramirez or Lindor. That type of trade-plus-extension (a la Berrios) seems to be an important way for Toronto to acquire key players. Donaldson and Chapman are other examples of controllable players the Blue Jays were able to acquire by deploying some of their prospect capital.

Teoscar will be paid 8.5 million in ten payments starting in 2030

Your comment broke my brain as I couldn't figure out how the Dodgers owed Teoscar 85 million deferred on a 1/23 deal.

I started searching to see if Teoscar had signed an extension after the NLDS.

It turns out that he's owed 850k a year deferred starting in 2030, which makes more sense.

Which is an interesting factoid but largely irrelevant in terms of future Dodger payroll considerations.

well, pooks, I said he would be paid 8.5 million IN ten payments, not 10 payments OF 8.5 million, which is reading comprehension. I maybe should have put 1 payment a year to make it clearer.

I just mentioned Teoscar because he is a former Blue Jay and I didn't think it was well known he is getting deferred money. And, yeah, it's not much for future Dodger payroll, but it is a part of 5 player's deferrals which is adding up to a huge amount that will have to be paid in coming years.

Dodgers will be OK becuase they are such a huge team but Padres will be in trouble. Bogaerts deal was one of dumbest I've ever seen even at the time. They had like 6 SS and their top prospect was a SS and they paid a premium to get a SS. That and how insanely backloaded and long Machado's contract is means they will be likely eating $65M a year for about five years.

TB's trade history is very successful. How do they do that?

R Arozareno could hit and steal bases in 3 minor league seasons. Signed as a 21 year old so old but he moved fast. So a potentially good O player in the Majors.

W Wagner moved fast for Houston good Avg but weak Hr and SB.

Loperfido moved fast with good Avg, SB and power.

C McAdoo 2023 draft pick, moved fast good Avg, HR & SBs.

J Clase very young, moved V well, has Avg, HR, SBs and V good D.

Our own A Kirk was tricky. Got injured, started as a DH, played C when all the other C's got injured and made it to the Majors V fast and young.

With older players you should get domination in the low minors so they should move fast. Then performance gets a true evaluation at AA/AAA level which can be measured somewhat and asked for in trades. None make the top 100 lists I think Arozarena & Kirk did not make any list.

Preller’s freewheeling (arguably reckless) approach isn’t ideal. But at the other end of the spectrum, being so cautious with your assets that you never manage to win a postseason game isn’t especially admirable, either.

reckless) approach isn’t ideal. But at the other end of the spectrum, being so cautious with your assets that you never manage to win a postseason game isn’t especially admirable, either."

I love how people just make up nonsense about the Jays. They're cautious? Sure. Pretty much every team in baseball is. But they aren't the opposite of San Diego. They traded away three first round picks, they've signed players to long term contracts, they've signed players to one year prove it contracts. They aren't some team that's hoarding prospects afraid to trade them.

No. I expressed an opinion, with which you’re free to disagree.

Nonsense is when you — Glevin — make up a claim about what the creators of WAR said about the utility of their metric, and then run away when challenged about the veracity of that claim.

Geeze greenfrog lighten up. Maybe time to take a break from the Jays for a week...