Maybe we need to bring Ng over to get rid of Mattingly here too. :)

Well, that would make a lot of people here happy as that'd be the end of the Shapirio/Atkins era - she'd demand to have full control after the Miami mess. Remember, she spent a LOT of time with the Dodgers (starting in 2001) and that is a place you want to raid just like the Rays are. She was with the Yankees in 98-2000 as assistant GM too - also a very good learning place (3 WS titles in her 3 years). If I was Rogers and I was wanting to do a major shift in the front office she'd be on the short list.

Now, what to expect in these final 3 games? Berríos goes for win #17 today, Rodriguez tries to earn his slot for 2025 on Saturday (his 1-7 record is worse than he has pitched, but the Jays 75 pitch limit has kept the W's away), Bassitt tries to have a good finish on Sunday. No 200 IP, no 20 wins, no 200 K's on the list for these guys.

Pen? Unless the Jays win all 3 in tight fashion Green won't get to 20 saves (at 17 right now). Can't see anything worth noting there. Well, Swanson is at 9 holds so 10 is in reach but I doubt anyone cares.

Offense? Vlad could win the batting title but needs a killer weekend while Witt has a weak one. 200 hits though he just needs 3 more. Springer sitting at 19 for doubles and home runs, I'm sure he'd like 1 more of each. Horwitz, Kirk, & Schneider both at 19 doubles, 20 would be a nice round number to reach. Barger needs 3 HR to reach 10 as a rookie. Vlad 2 runs scored from a 100 run season. Lukes just shy of 300 on the season at 294 - a good weekend would get him to 300 which would look good on his resume, on the other end Barger is at 200 for avg, Schneider 195 safe to say both want a good weekend to get over the Mendoza line. Vlad at 398 for OBP, so damn close to a 400 OBP. Springer at 301 OBP (ugh). Really not a lot to look at here outside of Vlad. A few nice things to watch for but I suspect #1/2 will be Vlad getting 200 hits and Vlad fighting for the batting title - I expect the 200 but not to get the batting title.

Well, that would make a lot of people here happy as that'd be the end of the Shapirio/Atkins era - she'd demand to have full control after the Miami mess. Remember, she spent a LOT of time with the Dodgers (starting in 2001) and that is a place you want to raid just like the Rays are. She was with the Yankees in 98-2000 as assistant GM too - also a very good learning place (3 WS titles in her 3 years). If I was Rogers and I was wanting to do a major shift in the front office she'd be on the short list.

Is this supposed to be a joke? Kim Ng is going to be to be your big move to make people happy about canning Shapiro LOL? Her big contributions to the Yankees/Dodgers was primarily on the front of handling arbitration cases and contracts, yet you make it sound like she was secretly building their teams. Not even close. She interviewed for ~5-6 GM jobs before the Marlins, and didn't get a single one. Her time in Miami was largely unimpressive - hence them bringing in someone above her. They won 84 games in a fluke season last year (something like a -50 run differential, and crazy high percentage of winning 1-run games). No, Kim Ng is not an upgrade to Shapiro. The fact that she sat in the room for 20 years with the Dodgers doesn't make her an upgrade.

We should have a look at Brett de Geus against his last team.
He hasn't had success at the MLB level but the stuff is interesting.

He was drafted by the Dodgers in 2017.Then he was picked by Texas in the rule 5 when he was 23.
He was then picked off waivers by Arizona in June, still as a rule 5.
He was released by Arizona after a bad year at AA.
Signed with KC. Had a 2.80 ERA in AA but bombed in AAA and released.
Signed with Seattle, same story. Picked on waivers by the Marlins, good AAA in a small sample.
Not so good in Miami in 7 games.

He mostly throws a 96mph sinker that tops at 98mph.
His second pitch is a knuckle curve at 85mph.
He has a cutter at 90mph and splitter at 88mph.

The sinkers look good. The curve has little lateral movement.
It looks like half of his cutters didn't cut at all.
The splitters probably move too much to stay in the strike zone.

Her big contributions to the Yankees/Dodgers was primarily on the front of handling arbitration cases and contracts.. The fact that she sat in the room for 20 years with the Dodgers doesn't make her an upgrade.

Absent some sort of secret inside information no one has reported, this sounds like misogynistic garbage suggesting she was either handling paperwork or just there as a token. I really have no idea how good she was at her job, and neither do you, but Assistant General Manager is more than just sitting in the room.

She interviewed for ~5-6 GM jobs before the Marlins, and didn't get a single one.

I am absolutely shocked that an Asian-American woman would have a hard time getting one of the top jobs in an otherwise exclusively male field.

I am absolutely shocked

Your winnings, sir.

I suddenly worry if an oblique reference to an 83 year old film is a little too obscure.

I thought it was some clever pun involving winni NG s

"(his 1-7 record is worse than he has pitched but the Jay's 75 pitch limit has kept the W's away)"

I'd say it's Yariel's pitching that's kept the W's away. I've watched a lot of his games and invariably he gets through the first 3 innings unscathed but by the 4th or 5th inning he starts walking people and/or the opposition starts hitting off him. I've seen very few of his games where he is still pitching well when he gets to his pitch limit, or even makes it that far. That doesn't mean I don't think he can be effective eventually, but right now he doesn't seem to have endurance.

I'm also not yet sure that Rogriguez has a way to consistently get hitters out over multiple innings.

I suddenly worry if an oblique reference to an 83 year old film is a little too obscure.

Play it again, Magpie. (Not an actual quote from the film).

Absent some sort of secret inside information no one has reported, this sounds like misogynistic garbage suggesting she was either handling paperwork or just there as a token. I really have no idea how good she was at her job, and neither do you, but Assistant General Manager is more than just sitting in the room.

The Dodgers currently have 3 "Assistant General Managers", all of whom are behind the actual GM, who himself is behind Andrew Friedman. They also have a Senior Vice President of Baseball Ops who is above the "Assistant GM's" as well. I never said that she did nothing, you are just projecting. You can Google what she was "known for": it was for her work handling arbitration cases and contract negotiations. The point being that you won't find a single article claiming that she was some secret architect behind their on-field roster, so why pretend like she is the obvious choice if one wanted to find someone from the Dodgers? I said "sitting in the room" because these front offices are massive - with ~4-5 people (all of similar "rank") operating together, and multiple execs above them. They can't all be "President" or "General Manager" worthy successors, even if they are with the mighty Dodgers.

I am absolutely shocked that an Asian-American woman would have a hard time getting one of the top jobs in an otherwise exclusively male field.

There it is! She didn't get the jobs because discrimination! If you actually read her bio, you will find that she was "taken under the wing" extremely early (and often) by multiple top-level execs, in multiple organizations. She was almost immediately identified and recognized. Have you considered that she didn't get those GM jobs, because it was simply outside her skill-set? There are 30 MLB teams, all with multiple "Assistant GM's". Of those ~60-100 "Assistant GM's", they can't all become General Managers, nor do they all have that capacity. But of course, because Kim Ng is a woman, in her case it MUST be because of that fact. She was with the Dodgers for ~10 years, interviewed for their GM position, and didn't get it. Must have been discrimination? She finally became GM with the Marlins, and the results were meh. Which actually seems to point to the PRIVILEGE she seems to receive: the fact that someone is suggesting to replace Shapiro with Kim Ng after her non-impressive Marlins tenure is wild. No offense, but I have a hard time believing that if Kim Ng was named "John Smith" and similarly just stepped down from the vaunted Miami Marlins that anyone would be suggesting that we should hire John Smith to replace Shapiro. It would never happen, so make of that what you want.

Rodriguez is getting stretched after not pitching much for several years.
The results are pretty good.
His problem is keeping the pitch count down. I'm cautiously optimistic for next year.

The Jays are 7-13 in games Yariel starts.

So still awful .350 win percentage , but not 1-7 bad.

Like John alluded to, the pitch limit and the 5-inning qualifier for starter wins make his record look worse than it really is.

But still not great.

The Marlins are the richer cousins of the Rays but the results don't reflect it.
Today's lineup features Griffin Conine and Otto Lopez.
Burger has 29 HR, but a .761 OPS.
Bride is at .782 and Edwards at .781.
The 2024 version has won only 59 games.
The pitching has taken a step back.
Luis Arreaz was traded to San Diego and Jorge Soler reached free agency.

They made the playoffs in 2020 thanks to a 31-29 record that was good enough for second place in the NL East.
It's a team that had an outfield of Yelich/Ozuna/Stanton and traded them all to go 63, 57, (31-29), 67, 69, 84! and are now back to 59.
Must be a really fun team for people who like rebuilds.

Clase taking base running tips from Vlad apparently

Very nice MLB showing by Lukes this year. Let's hope he can keep it going in 2025.

Couple of points:

If you call out Ng have some back up. It’s clear you don’t and it’s very easy to be misconstrued as misogynistic.

Greenfrog and Ducey seem to have a good pulse on what the Jays should and shouldn’t do next year regarding direction .

Lastly, Atkins sucks.

One more thing:

Magpie the reference was clear and better than any obscure baseball trivia question. Just LOVELY, apt and on point. Classic film, liner an end to a film.

I see we've reached the "let's give tryouts to random strangers who walked through the door" part of the season.

I don't think Ng's gender and racial identity did her any favours. I do think most GMs are hired because a) they've been with an organization that is widely admired, or b) someone already knew them and liked them. Ng spent most of her career with the Dodgers or the MLB office, neither of which would have helped her very much. The Dodgers are a very successful organization, but team owners admire people from Tampa much more than LA. (They win more than they lose, and they do it cheap.) What finally came through for Ng was the personal connection. She was hired by Derek Jeter, who knew her from her brief term with the Yankees.

Calling people misogynistic because they disagree with you, absent evidence, is misogynistic.

You know, in that, you are cheapening the charge.

Pirates win! Texas winniNg.

Ohtani is up to 54 HR and 57 SB. Hits like an MVP, hits home runs like a HOF slugger, pitches like a Cy Young calibre starting pitcher, steals bases with evident ease (he's been caught stealing 4 times this year). There may never be another player like him.

For the record, Babe Ruth topped out at 17 SB in a season. His career SB:CS totals were 123:116.

I have no strong feelings towards Ng one way or another.

The thought that came to my mind though was that she had the misfortune of being groomed for a long time towards being a top baseball executive, only to have the baseball FO culture shift to seemingly hiring not-even-middle-aged-yet Paul DePodesta clones.

Didn't expect this much discussion on Ng - just seeing Miami got me thinking about her and figuring if the Jays go hunting she'd be a solid candidate - experience in 2 very successful front offices, generally seen as well liked and respected in MLB. Being a non-white female would also put a new face on the franchise if they felt visible change was needed at the top. My feeling is no change is coming, and to be honest I think the current Shapiro/Atkins team can do a quick rebuild. pooks137 brought up another interesting name in Paul DePodesta - he was the hot young gun years ago but as Dodgers GM didn't see a lot of success (2004-2005 won division in '04 lost in first round, 4th in 2005 with 91 losses with lots of ex-Jays [Jeff Kent, César Izturis, Jayson Werth, José Cruz Jr, Giovanni Carrara] - the Jays connection was more a 'huh what do you know' when I looked the team up). He got a few other jobs in MLB but never again a GM or president job. Since 2016 has been the chief strategy officer for the Cleveland Browns of the NFL.

Lots of candidates if the Jays choose to go a new direction, but no one is a lock to work out. Changing GM's always makes me nervous as you could end up in a deep hole with the wrong one (just ask the White Sox who hired Chris Getz before this season).

As to the Jays for 2024 - just draft position left now. Jays 7th worst, 1 game behind the Pirates, can't catch the Rangers (Rangers won 1 more than the Jays in 2023, Jays can only tie them with 2 wins and Rangers losing the last 2) or anyone else in either direction. So the Jays will draft 7th or 8th after round 1, 5th or 6th overall unless the lottery helps or screws them. 2 Jay losses or 2 Pirate wins, or both go 1-1 and the Jays get the 7th slot, anything else and the Jays are 8th worst. Pirates have the tie break (2023 record of 76-86 vs Jays 89-73). Dream is to win the lottery and get the #1 overall pick for the first time in franchise history (it'd be Ethan Holliday unless he gets hurt badly or does something really stupid or has insane demands). Oh yeah, also hoping Vlad gets at least 1 more hit, and ideally gets very hot to win the batting title - just 6 points away from Witt, but also just 1 point ahead of Judge. FYI: Ohtani just 5 points shy of a triple crown in the NL. He has the HR, RBI, R, slugging, and OPS titles all locked up, and leads OBP by 6. He won't win the SB title (2nd to Elly De La Cruz who has 65, 2nd in walks too with 80 to Schwarber's 104). Sheesh what an insane year he has had. Yeah, it'd have been fun to have him here but he is just too much fun to watch anywhere - so thankful the Yankees didn't get him.

If the Blue Jays want to replace their GM and/or president, they should hire the best and most talented person for the position. That doesn't necessarily mean the person with the most conventionally recognized credentials or the person who has logged the most time in a front office.

Otto Lopez finding success in Miami does not really surprise me, but Griffin Conine? Good for you man. I never thought he’d make it to the bigs with all those Ks

Don't know anything about Ng but Shapiro or Atkins would have been out of jobs long time ago if they were asian females.

We’re about to find out if America is ready to elect a black and south Asian woman as President. It’s pretty much the equivalent of the late innings of a WS game 7 now. Crunch time.

Best to avoid politics (trust me I'd love to get right into it but won't). IMO it is a lot like a game between the 121 loss White Sox and the Dodgers, one should win, and win easily, but it is a tight game into the 9th for some reason.

Outside of the Jays this has been a fun year of MLB - Ohtani might win the triple crown and that isn't the big story. His 50-50 season (could be 55-55 easily) is. Then you have the White Sox losing 121 with 2 games to go (I hope they lose both so they have fewer wins than the '62 Mets who had 2 games rained out iirc). Judge having a season for the ages - 325/461/708 while playing CF, leading in HR, RBI, BB, OBP, Slg with a 226 OPS+ (25th highest ever - Bonds at peak PEDs the only other to be that high since Ted Williams retired). The NL has 3 teams within 1 of each other for the final 2 WC slots - Arizona up 1 on the Mets & Atlanta with 2 games left. No one won 100 this year, just 2 lost 100 with a 3rd on the edge (Rockies have 99 losses with 2 to go vs the Ohtani Dodgers). Hard to believe no one made it to 100 wins with the horrid White Sox around, but it happened.

Judge 2 shy of 60 with 2 to go, 2 guys have 200+ K's with a 3rd in eyeshot (Schwarber is 5 shy).3 guys have 50+ SB, 2 with 50+ HR, so far just Witt Jr with 200 hits, but Vlad & Luis Arraez are at 199, and Ohtani is 6 short (right now I wouldn't be shocked if he hits 6 more HR to reach 60 in these last 2 days - that is what kind of year he has had). Ohtani is also a member of the 130-130 club (R/RBI) - just happened 64 times before, Judge in 2022 the most recent, tons from 1997-2007 mostly PED guys (A-Rod, Sosa, McGwire, ManRam, plus Bagwell, Helton, and Walker), then you gotta go back to 61-62 for Willie Mays, Frank Robinson, and Roger Maris. Mickey Mantle '56, Ted Williams a batch of times, then you are into pre-integration when it was commonplace from 1920 (Ruth) to 1949 (Williams and Stan Musial and Johnny Mize). Before that you gotta go back to 1890's (7 times).

Basically I'd say Ohtani is Ted Williams, mixed with a fast runner, mixed with an all-star pitcher. Yikes.

Shapiro's contract ends after 2025 and Atkins after 2026. I think at this point we have to accept that they come as a package deal, and Rogers isn't going to cut bait on Shapiro before his (I'm assuming very expensive) contract ends. You don't want a lame duck team president to be choosing the team's next GM anyway. The bigger issue is you also don't want a lame duck team president to be making one of the biggest decisions in franchise history (Vlad extension). It's a strange position to be in. This FO has absolutely zero incentive to think beyond 2025, much like Beeston/AA in 2014 heading into 2015. Of course that is assuming that Shapiro doesn't have an agreement to stick around longer. He seems to have a great relationship with ownership so that's certainly possible.

The Jays really don't have much to trade in the farm system, and I hope logic prevails and they avoid trading Nimmala, but otherwise this is the winter that I would expect a big trade involving prospects and/or young players.

Rogers was personally involved in recruiting Shapiro and I think they have a strong relationship - Shapiro got Rogers to pony up for significant renovations - I think firing Shapiro would be an admission by Rogers of failure, so I think Shapiro is safe.

did Rogers think they were hiring Shapiro for life?

Why so much hate towards the management of this team? Honestly. 2020-2023 saw 3 playoff appearances and missing the one year by 1 game. Only 1989-1993 did that trick before. Winning 92 in 2022 was the 6th most wins in franchise history. Only 2015 had 90+ wins since the 1993 title before 21-22 both cracked 90 with 23 matching 16 with 89. Every other year post 1993 was 88 or fewer wins than those 5 seasons, 4 of which had this management team running it (15-16, 21-23). Clearly most here have no idea what the Ash & JPR years were like. Having the best hitter and best pitcher in the game here but not sniffing the playoffs. Every year being a 'wait until next year'.

Yeah, the 0 playoff wins in 3 appearances sucked, but that is largely luck based. Heck the White Sox beat the Yankees for a game this year.

I personally think Atkins should be fired/moved off GM and am ambivalent about Shapiro (I don't know what Jays asked of him or how he's doing in what they asked. Is he supposed to bring revenue up? Is he? Etc..) but also have never understood the hate. But then again, I don't get the hate of Rogers as owners. I hate Rogers as a company, but as owners, they've been good. Look around the league. And as for front offices? We've had way way worse and there are plenty worse on baseball.

1989-1993 and 2020-2023 are not really comparable, in my view.

In 1989-1993, the Blue Jays finished first in the AL East four times (sometimes by a lot) and won the World Series twice. The rosters were often really talented.

In 2020-2023, the Blue Jays finished first in the AL East zero times, won zero postseason games, and only made the postseason at all because of the expanded playoff format that includes extra WC spots.

The 2021 Blue Jays were the best of the 2020-2023 teams but they missed the postseason by a game, arguably due to one or more mismanaged games by an inexperienced MLB manager and/or the decision to trade for a toasty reliever (Brad Hand) in a misguided attempt to conserve prospect capital -- a fateful decision, as it turned out, because the team has never returned to the calibre of roster it had that season.

Go Pirates go. If Jays lose one of next two games, I believe they are guaranteed to have 5th best odds at #1 pick and will pick #7 in next rounds.

My take on the Blue Jays president and CEO:
It took Rogers a long time to replace the previous guy and it was very painful.
CEO is not a job you interview for.
It sounds weird, but it's like that.
A CEO is like a king that the mobs port to power, in this case the mob being a board of directors.
It's not about competencies. It's about having some claims to the position.
Shapiro has that.
The previous guy was there for a long time.
Absent some figure with a strong claim to the title waiting in the shadows, it don't see it happening.
Long live the king.

Atkins is a totally different matter.
His head could roll if the discontentment warrants it.
I guess it doesn't.

Jays have giving up 207 HR. That's a lot for a year with the offense down.
The pen is dead last across all 30 teams in HR/9.

The 1989 Jays only made it due to the AL East being super-weak - 89 wins is all it took. In '91 it took 91 wins, again, fits perfectly in with the 20-23 Jays. '92, '93 the Brewers were the only other AL East team to win 90 (in '92), in '93 no other team in the east won 89 even. 1993's rotation had 3 guys with 26+ starts and ERA+'s sub 100 (70 from Morris) so they were damn lucky not to be knocked out due to that. A killer year from the pen saved that team (Ward, Eichorn, Cox, and Castillo all had ERA+'s of 129 or better with the first 3 throwing over 70 innings each).

It is funny, the 1993 team felt like a lock to win it all from day one, but Gillick almost blew it going cheap with the rotation (refusing to give Key a 4th year, going with Stewart for 2 instead, counting on Morris at all) and leaving 3B to a near rookie in Ed Sprague, while not figuring out LF until mid-season.

The 1993 Jays were blessed by Pythagoras (although I suspect that's the case with teams with good bullpens) because they were a 91 team.

They were worse than the 2021 team that did win 91 but Pythagoras decided to not grant the 99 their run differential pointed to (as I suspect is the case for most teams with weak bullpens).

What needs fixing in 2025?

1. Bo
2. The pen
3. A SP please
4. A LF with power

Despite the bad vibes around the team since June, this team could be closer to fine in 2025. After that:
¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Atkins doesn't need to be fired to be marginalized. If there's a FO hire that's as big a signal as a firing. We should all be comfortable with FO by committee... it's a good thing in any corporate operation.

bk@_bkuh_
If the lottery formula is comparable in 2025 as it was in 2024, the Jays have secured a ~60% chance at a lottery pick (top 6), ~8.3% chance at first overall. Had they won 2-3 more games, they could've been as low as ~26% for a lottery pick and 3% for first overall.
5:29 PM · Sep 28, 2024

https://x.com/_bkuh_/status/1840171992206688258

When does the 2025 draft order get determined?

I've said many times that the 2021 Blue Jays team was one of the best Blue Jays teams ever. That said, I feel like Robbie Ray got a bit tired towards the end of the season after throwing close to 200 IP and striking out close to 250 batters. He had a fantastic year, but he seemed to lose some steam in September. For example, in a critical Sept. 30 game against the Yankees, he gave up 5 ER (4 HR) in 5.1 innings in a 6-2 loss. The Blue Jays went on to win the next three games (the last three games of the season) against Baltimore, but it wasn't quite enough and the team missed the playoffs by one game.

I'm not sure how well Ray would have held up in a long postseason run had the team made the playoffs. They did have an excellent offense, so they might have been able to go far nonetheless.

The lottery was held on December 5th last year. Guessing it'll likely be right around then again.

Yep, just checked and nothing can change where the Jays are in the standings now. ChiSox-Miami/Colorado (tied)-LAA-A's-Washington-Jays-Pirates/Reds (tied)-Rangers are the bottom 10. ChiSox & A's can't get a top 9 pick so will be #10/11. Jays odds are 7.48% of getting the 1st overall pick. It is unlikely, but they could drop by 3 slots if all goes wrong. Roughly a 1 in 13 odds of winning.

Best the Jays ever had is #2 overall - 3 times, 2 who didn't reach and Lloyd Moseby. #3 once, wasted on Jay Schroeder. #4 once, used on Billy Koch. #5 3 times - Matt Williams (pitcher), Vernon Wells (good choice), and Austin Martin (traded in the nick of time). Under the pre-lottery system the Jays would be getting the 7th pick - never have had that one. 10+ WAR from Wells, Moseby, Hill (#13), Carpenter (#15), Green (#16), Halladay (#17), Stewart (#19), Rios (#19), Karsay (#22), Stroman (#22). ANd that is it for the top 30 picks (1st round has gone longer with sandwich picks which add in Paxton #37, Syndergaard #38, and Musgrove #46. Funny thing is outside of Halladay Round 2 has David Wells at 53.5 WAR, Round 3 John Olerud 58.2 and Jimmy Key 48.9, and round 5 Dave Stieb 56.4. So high draft pick isn't always the best indicator of success but it helps.

Getting pick #7 in every round will help.

The Jays are ending the season with not a bang but a whimper. The prospect of a bullpen day is kind of scary this year. At least it's not the Red Sox or Yankees that are mauling them.

Thanks to all the teams - Pittsburgh, Texas, Miami, Boston etc. who helped the Jays achieve my goal of the highest possible draft position entering the home stretch - Hopefully we have better luck than Austin Martin - can we hire someone from the Orioles/Astros front office please!

It seems like the Blue Jays management group (in the front office and in the dugout) could use an overhaul. I don’t expect much to change in the next year, though. If the team has another season like this in 2025, there will undoubtedly be some changes.

I expect a lot of change in the FO. Either of these:

1) replace Atkins

2) keep Atkins and replace many in the scouting and draft personnel as well as development

3) replace Shapiro and Atkins by 2025 (announce they won’t return) and start search for replacement with Keith Pelley now in full power and control of the franchise

Super happy the Jays have achieved sufficient lousy-ness to finish 23rd and get a decent draft position.

Just need to hold or improve their first round pick in the lottery.

And then figure out how the hell to draft properly - though presumably the teams that will draft ahead of them are not run by geniuses either.

We know the only geniuses populate baseball internet chat rooms

I am calling this our 2nd rebuild. This one is different because we don't have to shed payroll of R Martin and Tulo. Also Donaldson got injured and was a bit expensive due to 3 great seasons 2015,16 and 17.

To get our successful record of 2020-23 we used expensive FAs and some moves that worked out great like Ray and Semien. I hope the FO is not forced to get expensive FAs in this rebuild.

I give credit to ownership (big spending) and the Shapiro/Atkins FO. Maybe it was luck that we replaced Ray (injured) with Gausman. Atkins gets a lot of praise from me for his Trade deadline moves or 2020 T Walker, 2021 Stripling & Berrios, 2022 Bass, Pop and E Duran for Groshans, 2023 Hicks and Cabrera. They all worked.

I fault the FO for bringing back KK for 2024 to a team that struggles to score runs. For 2023 they struck fast KK signed Dec14 and Varsho traded for Dec23. So that was OK.

The 2024 Trade deadline saw expiring contracts traded to reduce payroll below the luxury tax threshold. Acquisitions at the deadline that played for the Jays did not impress me. But SSS Loperfido only 239 ML ABs, Wagner had a hot August but a cold Sept like D Schneider last year and only 16 ABs for Clase.

Why did we have to shed the payroll of Martin and Tulo again?

can we hire someone from the Orioles/Astros front office please!

James Click.

Jays shed Tulo, but not his salary. They paid Tulo in full, other than the league minimum the Yankees paid after signing him for his "revenge tour".

" We know the only geniuses populate baseball internet chat rooms."

You're so correct! Why haven't the Jays hired us already?

Thanks hypobole. I was wrong about Tulo.

Atkins told the fanbase that they would sign/acquire an expensive/good player and then they signed Springer. Since that news they don't tell us much. So everyone gets to speculate.

The 2020 draft was a disaster due to the huge signing bonus A Martin received. I don't think we could have passed on him because he was hyped as the best player in the draft. Many Bauxites and I believe that Shapiro runs practically everything. If so he would have a say in taking Martin. It would have looked very bad if Martin had lived up to his hype and the Jays did not pick him.

The draft lottery rules as I understand them are that all 18 non playoff teams participate except CWS & Oakland who are guaranteed #10 & 11. At some point the top players will get bunched together maybe 14-19th & someone will fall. Other bunches could be 1-3, 4-8 etc... No matter what, the pre draft rankings and actual picks will be wrong because they always are. So no strategy actually works IMO.

Sign Vlad
Sign Santander
Sign Teoscar
Sign two depth starters to be ready in AAA
Trade for a good tandem catcher for Kirk
Trade for 2 bullpen arms
Hope Bo is healthy and bounces back.
Hope Romano is healthy and bounces back
Hope Manoah is ready for 2nd half of '25.

Opening Day Lineup at home next year vs Orioles:

RF Springer
SS Bichette
1B Vlad
LF Santander
DH T. Hernandez
2B Horwitz
C Kirk
CF Varsho
3B Clement
P Berrios

Let's enjoy the playoffs and the off-season hotstove. And here's hoping Ed Rogers is ready to spend big.

Hopefully, we're past the point of sticking with Springer in the lead no matter how poorly he hits.
Springer might be the biggest signing in franchise history but he only had one good month this year.

Trade Vlad
Trade Bo
Non-tender Romano
don't overpay for BP arms
Select some arms in Rule 5 draft
Let the Kids play
Lukes deserves to at least platoon in LF

85Bluejay, I can’t tell if your post was supposed to be serious or trolling.

If it’s supposed to be serious, why are you only trading Vlad and Bo? The team you proposed has no hope of being competitive, so why the half measure. I’m also curious about what outcome you’re hoping for in proposing those measures.

85Bluejay,

Where is the rest of your post? Post your line up for 2025 with "rule 5 signees" and letting the "kids" play. Presumably these are players younger than Vlad and Bo, right?

Obviously, if you're planning that level of tank you have to move Berrios and Gausman as well.

There's an existential problem with being that bad. If the team isn't a profitable enterprise for the corporation, they could always find some hedge-fund billionaire in Memphis or someplace like that to take this lemon off their hands.

I'm serious unless the Jays can sign Bo & Vlad to reasonable deals (which I doubt) I think it would foolhardy to go into next season with them on expiring contracts - the noise from the constant questions/speculation will probably derail the season - I would listen on almost all players but may have to hold onto the likes of Gausman, Berrios & Bassitt until at least the trade deadline when some prospects may be available to take the workload.

Imagine wanting to tank when the best pick you can get is 10th overall.

Tough season for Seattle. Fewest runs allowed in the AL (and second-fewest in MLB), and they miss the postseason by a game. They were way better this season (+69 run differential) than Toronto (-72), though.

Why would they change course and begin a rebuild after indicating the plan is to compete?

They kept Atkins as GM. Even if he’s let go it’s not like the new GM is going to trade Vlad or Bo. For what? Major league ready pieces? That’s a certain loss. Or lottery tickets? Because those trades rarely pan out, and when they do it’s years down the line. So we’re talking 2028 here.

I have a feeling Rogers wants the team to sell seats and tv packages in the next 4-5 years.

Tough season, no doubt, but it sure beats the White Sox - they could improve by 20 games and still lose over 100. Jays finished 24 games behind the best record in MLB (Dodgers), the White Sox were 33 games behind the Jays. Oakland lost their team to a minor league ballpark where they won't even use the new cities name. The Angels lost Ohtani, Trout got badly hurt, used a 20 year old on the mound for 3 games (got his butt handed to him). Texas went from WS champ to 4 games ahead of the Jays in their own disaster season. The Mariners gave up some decent prospects (to the Jays and others) to push to the playoffs but failed. The Pirates did to and flopped even worse. Miami, Tampa, and Oakland all had worse attendance than the 121 loss White Sox - all sub 20k. The KC Royals with a young exciting playoff bound team just beat them out with 20.4k per game. Tigers also made the playoffs with just 22.7k a game. Mets and O's both got 28k a game as did Arizona. Jays in a very disappointing year after blowing it for the 2nd playoff in a row had 33k a game - between the Astros (perpetual playoff team) and Red Sox (the Maple Leafs of MLB except they actually win it all sometimes).

The Jays are in very good shape financially I'm certain - packed stadium that fills to overflow when winning, high TV ratings which sadly aren't public anymore. So can afford any player willing to come here. This year they just got under the line for CBT with a $234,968,876 payroll according to Cot's, $2 mil under. Next year they have $135.198 mil locked in plus arbitration for Vlad, Romano, Varsho, Kirk, Swanson, Cabrera, Manoah, Clement, and a few possible non-tenders in Pop, Tate, Nance, Heinemann, and Burr (none of those guys would get much in arb, but could be a factor depending on Jays cheapness and if they think any will make the team - I expect Tate, Heinemann, and maybe Burr to get an offer). After all of that they should still be sub $200 mil with any luck, thus tons of space to add before hitting the new CBT level of $241 mil (next level is $20 mil more, and so on to max at $301 mil).

Obviously priorities are, in order, bullpen (#1/2/3/4 priority), LF, 3B, DH, 2B, #5/6/7/etc. starter (Yariel Rodriguez has that slot right now, but could lose it easily, plus Francis should be a lock for a slot but will he be as good in 2025 as in 2023/4? Still some doubt there).

The pen is always a crapshoot, but there are interesting names out there - Kendall Graveman (missed 2024 but should be ready for 2025), David Robertson (entering age 40 season but still very effective), A.J. Minter (LH very effective for Atlanta but had left hip surgery in August), Tanner Scott (LHP, very effective, part time closer with 12-22 saves each of the past 3 years), Scott Alexander (solid LHP for Oakland), and many others including Ryan Yarbrough who'd be nice to resign to hold down the 8th slot in the pen (long man/spot starter).

A couple of lower-middle-class multiyear free agent deals.

A few one-year deals for aging players and/or reclamation projects.

No noteworthy trades.

“Incredibly excited about internal growth.”

I mean, is there any doubt?

"Obviously priorities are, in order, bullpen (#1/2/3/4 priority), LF, 3B, DH, 2B, #5/6/7/etc. starter"

Bullpen, #2C, LF power bat. Other than some SP depth, I dont see the others as priorities.

2B has many internal options. It would not seem a good idea to add there.

The Jays tanked for 2 months, August was actually their best month, but September was tough to watch.

IKF was benched for the last game because he's 4 PA from a 250K bonus.

Turner was a disaster, but by wrc+, there are only 9 1B with better numbers and 11 DH with better numbers.
What does that tell me? Just sign Vladdy!

They could sell Vladdy now or sign him for 10 years.
What are the odds that the prospects they would get would produce more than Vladdy will over the rest of his career?
I think it's a very small number.

Bo is totally different. Yeah, maybe they lose him to a QO.
Or maybe they QO him and he finds himself in a Bellinger spot, nobody willing to pony up long term and he accepts a short term contract with opt-outs.
Bellinger, btw, was mostly a DH for the Cubs this year and will probably not opt out.
Because of the QO, the Jays would be best suited to offer that type of contract,

In the list of teams who did poorly, I would add the Giants who finished 80-82, 4th in their division, and who are going to give Chapman--who was mostly hitting 5th this year--25M each of the next 6 years.
That long contract to Jung Hoo Lee doesn't look great neither. Just over 7M this year, but over 16M next year and over 25M the 4 years after that.

Bellinger, btw, was mostly a DH for the Cubs this year

This is incorrect. Bellinger was actually quite versatile defensively in 2024. Here are his games played this year (per Fangraphs):

RF: 49
CF: 48
DH: 24
1B: 22
LF: 1

And while 2.2 WAR is somewhat of a disappointment for him, it would have tied for 4th-most on the Blue Jays. A Bellinger-Varsho-Springer outfield (as opposed to a Varsho-Kiermaier-Springer outfield) would have been adequate, albeit not great, this year.

My bad. He seems to be listed as the DH because he's usually in the lineup but Suzuki has 72 games in RF, Crow-Amstrong has 117 games in CF and Michael Busch has 142 games at 1B.
At 2.2 WAR, Bellinger is 7th amongst the Cubs position players.

In the Jays, Clement comes third at 3.6 after Guerrero at 6.2 and Varsho at 5.0.
Wagner has 0.7 in 24 games. Horwitz has 1.2 in 97 games. Springer and Lukes both at 1.1--Lukes in 22 games and Springer in 145.

Sign Clement to 150 million since he's worth half as much as Vlad. Never mind that he has more grounded into double plays than walks. WAR for the win.

Final Plausible Best Lineups...

This year's stats and Past 1 Calendar year stats are now the same....

* 1B Horwitz 381pa, .300babip, .357obp, 127wrc+, 3.2war/650
* LF Lukes 91pa, .319babip, .371obp, 132wrc+, 5.0war/650
* DH Guerrero 697pa, .342babip, .396obp, 165wrc+, 5.1war/650
* 2B Wagner 86pa, .359babip, .337obp, 125wrc+, 4.5war/650
* SS Jimenez 210pa, .311babip, .329obp, 102wrc+, 1.9war/650
* CF Varsho 513pa, .262babip, .293obp, 99wrc+, 4.2war/650
* RF Springer 614pa, .345babip, .303obp, 95wrc+, 1.3war/650
* 3B Clement 452pa, .266babip, .284obp, 94wrc+, 3.2war/650
* C Kirk 386pa, .276babip, .319obp, 94wrc+, 4.7war/650

* UT Schneider 454pa, .257babip, .292obp, 80wrc+, 0.9war/650
* OF Loperfido 262pa, .331babip, .264obp, 74wrc+, 0.2war/650
* IF Bichette 336pa, .269babip, .277obp, 71wrc+, 0.6war/650
* UT Barger 255pa, .239babip, .250obp, 70wrc+, -0.8war/650
* C Heineman 16pa, .167babip, .313obp, 45wrc+, 0.0war/650

* IF Martinez 3pa, .500babip, .333obp, 92wrc+, -21.7war/650
* OF Clase 66pa, .326babip, .303obp, 87wrc+, 1.0war/650
* OF Berroa 45pa, .304babip, .333obp, 74wrc+, 5.8war/650
* C Serven 71pa, .244babip, .243obp, 38wrc+, -1.8war/650
* IF DeLosSantos 31pa, .263babip, .226obp, 33wrc+, -4.2war/650



Fangraphs Combined Depth Charts Rest of Season Projections

* 1B Horwitz 119wrc+
* SS Bichette 114wrc+
* 3B Guerrero 151wrc+
* C Kirk 112wrc+
* RF Springer 110wrc+
* CF Varsho 105wrc+
* LF Lukes 105wrc+
* 2B Wagner 103wrc+
* DH Schneider 103wrc+

* IF Clement 99wrc+
* OF Barger 97wrc+
* IF Jimenez 95wrc+
* C Heineman 83wrc+

* IF Martinez 94wrc+
* OF Loperfido 86wrc+
* OF Clase 85wrc+
* OF Berroa 76wrc+
* IF DeLosSantos 73wrc+
* C Serven 57wrc+

Steamer-Only Projection: OF Roden 108wrc+

I thought it was well known that WAR isn't linear.

Nothing is linear.

What does "Rest of Season Projections" mean when the season is over?
What stats has Horwitz as a better defender than Guerrero?

"rest of season" always just means the most current forward-looking projections.

I think most any defensive stat would show horwitz better defensively than Vladdy though i'll admit i haven't checked them all.

i'll also admit that i'm fine with Vladdy being the full time starter at 1B regardless of the defensvie stats.

Some stats are more linear than other 30 hr is exactly twice 15.

Do what you gotta do, but treating WAR linearly gives nonsense such as that 3+ WAR value for Clement.

30hr is twice 15hr.

3war is twice 1.5war.

in general i don't know why people get annoyed when WAR is turned into a rate stat, like any other rate stat. with all the same issues as other rate stats (i.e. sample size).

interestingly bwar has Clement at 3.6 for the year....a 5.2war/650 pace.

From the original FG post on WAR:

Scrub 0-1 WAR
Role Player 1-2 WAR
Solid Starter 2-3 WAR
Good Player 3-4 WAR
All-Star 4-5 WAR
Superstar 5-6 WAR
MVP 6+ WAR

If your adjustment to a stat turns solid players into superstars, then
it's worth a think.

WAR is good at comparing across positions for what players have done. It's very coarse and even the original post from FG says, essentially, "ignore the decimal places".

it's not an "adjustment" per se it's just turning war into a rate state the same as batting average or OPS or hr/9 or ERA or whatever.

and like every rate stat, the smaller the sample size the less reliable it is.

Something to think about in the offseason.

Arizona in 2023 made the playoffs with an 84-78 record and a RS/RA of -15. 2024 was a much better season 89 wins with a RS/RA of +98 which is better than Atlanta & NYM.

With a RS/RA of +91 SD won 93 games but last year the RS/RA was +104 but only 82 wins. Without doing any analysis I am guessing the 1 run baseball gods messed up.

WAR doesn't scale for part time players for the same reasons other stats might fail. If a manager has done a good job, a part-time player has been put into games with the best chances to succeed. Platoon advantage is the most obvious one, but there are likely other small advantages being leveraged with defensive position choices. Common defensive replacements can end up with very odd numbers, though I don't think this year's team did that a ton?

IKF was benched for the last game because he's 4 PA from a 250K bonus.

Per MLBTR, this was true for Rowdy Tellez - DFAed just before reaching a bonus.

Also per MLBTR, for IKF, when the manager realized he was 4 PA away from the bonus, he scrambled to try to get him into the last day's lineup, but IKF declined, saying they should give the game to a rookie / player they were trying to evaluate for next year. A real class act for both manager and IKF, if true.

Clement right now is an average hitter. The defense seems solid.
It's possible to upgrade but the price will be high and I don't see the point of a long contract with possible declining years.
That usually doesn't work out.