Oh yeah, should put a 'woohoo' to Varsho getting the Gold Glove in CF.  Well deserved.  Also, you can vote for him for the Platinum Glove.

FYI: Saw this news about the Jays going all-out for Soto repeated a few times today. This SI article names it as Hector Gomez pushing the rumor via Twitter.

Wow. Lots of work, John!

Maybe it's Soto, or bust. I'll bet bust.

I can't see the Jays being able to afford Soto and Vlad once Vlads contract would kick in. So it would be a one year proposition. Soto would know that too.

They should just focus on Vlad.

The Yankees' payroll is higher than the Jays' and they have more holes to plug.
Judge isn't going to play in CF forever, so Soto would have to move to DH by the time Stanton is done.
They need a 1B, a 3B to move Chisholm back to 2B and they hope to have Dominguez in the outfield eventually.

Tampa's payroll is under 90M. Toronto's payroll is over 200M.
There is definitively room for Soto. It just puts a limit on addressing other needs.
Bichette would walk, which seems to be the path he's on regardless.
They need to develop pitchers, so they don't spend on guys like Bassitt anymore.
Springer will be replaced internally as well.
The collection of near ready players they just acquired makes it possible.

I have no doubt the Soto/Jays news is a combination of "media" conjecture and an agent using his connections to get a player connected to as many teams as possible when the true market is likely LAD, NYM and NYY.

There are too many holes in the Jays team and org (depth) for Soto to immediately fix this team. There aren't enough good players that get to free agency now, the Jays don't have the depth to trade for good players, and the pitching rotation is thin with Gausman and Bassitt both on the decline. Plus the bullpen issues.

I fully expect that they'll trade Jimenez. I also think that's a mistake and that he had a higher ceiling than Wagner and Kasevich and is a safer bet than O. Martinez.

FWIW, I also predicted the Jays 5th place finish back in March. Too early to predict givne teams will change a lot but it's a huge uphill battle to improve given the Rays are getting big arms back after injury, Boston has way more good, young talent than the Jays, same for Baltimore and the Yankees are the Yankees.

Sign Vlad to a lifetime contract, don't sign any multi-year deals with free agents over 30. If lots of things break right the team can compete for a wild card in 2025, but the focus should be on 2026 and beyond.

I agree with Marc that they’ll trade Jimenez, and I also agree he has more upside than some of the players the FO likely values more than him. Though if he’s not a good defensive SS, and isn’t playing 3B, then that greatly lowers his potential value. For better or worse, Wagner and Kasevich have the offensive profiles that this FO loves, and Martinez has the power potential that Jimenez doesn’t. When you factor that Leo is out of options, I think he ends up being the trade bait. Could see Milwaukee as a fit there as they could use an infielder after losing Adames and have players the Jays could use.

Soto plus Vlad would be a billion dollar investment. It’s not happening. I think they’ll ultimately cave to what Vlad is asking for, but very slim chance they go that high for Soto considering he doesn’t come with the global revenue that Ohtani would have. The ideal scenario might be acquiring arbitration eligible players similar to how they got Varsho but they don’t have the expendable prospect capital to do that. Difficult to see a clear path here but let’s see what they do.

I don't quite understand the "Othani global revenue" stream.
Japan is an out of market public.
Also, Soto seemed to prefer the east coast--which makes sense--and how would the Dodgers have the money when they clearly need a shortstop. Where would Soto hit on the Dodgers? They already have Othani and Freeman in the top 3 spots.  The Mets make a lot more sense.

I am not writing off anything. This team has shown it will spend lots of money on upgrading their buildings and on top free agents. They offered on Gerrit Cole, Corey Seager, Justin Verlander, Shohei Ohtani not to mention paying top dollar for lesser free agents like Ryu and Springer.

They're done the facilities in Florida and the stadium and might have more flexibility for bigger signings. They also have one main owner now instead of two when it comes to their other assets (Raptors and Maple Leafs) so they have more control of their expenditures.

I am interested to see where Soto and Vlad go.

Last off season the Jays made 6 significant moves. KK, Turner, Vogelbach, IKF, Votto and Yariel Rodriguez. Just 1 pitcher so I guess they were happy with their pitching situation. I don't consider B Little a significant move.

They relied on Biggio to be someone useful, but he was not good enough. E Clement won a regular job by the end of June. D Schneider lost his regular job by early July.

The AS break was in early July and the Jays were out of contention for a playoff spot. A few Bauxites already started talking about 2025. Atkins & the media seemed to know the season was lost and plans were speculated about then acted upon by the trade deadline.

I expect about 5 significant moves to be made this off season. Better than Votto and Vogelbach. Payroll will be the defining factor IMO. I only expect 1 big move but more than 1 is possible. Trading Bo is not a significant acquisition.

Dasan Brown won a MiLB gold glove - one of 3 awarded to OF in all of the minor leagues.

I don't quite understand the "Othani global revenue" stream.

This piece has some interesting insights: https://www.sportspromedia.com/insights/analysis/shohei-ohtani-los-angeles-dodgers-mlb-tv-ratings-sponsorship-attendances-social-media/

For example: "With Ohtani on board, they have seen their roster of sponsors grow significantly, with at least ten Japanese companies signing deals with the franchise. Indeed, SponsorUnited founder Bob Lynch told Sports Business Journal (SBJ) that the platform projects the Dodgers to be the highest new-revenue generating team in US professional sports this year, adding at least US$30 million in income."

I heard recently on a sports podcast that the Dodgers have already received over 500,000,000 of increased revenue from the first year of the deal alone. This is from Bob McCown who frequently has his good friend Stan Kasten on the show.

One wonders how much a pure baseball player is worth. FanGraphs has Soto at roughly $580 million over 12-13 years. They put his 2024 season at $65.1 mil of value for 8.1 WAR, over $40 mil in 2019-2021-2023 as well. It is a massive risk for whoever signs him - if he, say, breaks his leg and loses a lot of his skill right away you are screwed. If he ages poorly, screwed. But if he plays as he can you have a HOF talent for ages 26-32 (all prime) plus his decline phase as he goes for assorted records (3000 hits, 500 HR, etc.) plus the HOF cap of your team on his head when he goes in. Checking the favorite toy we get a 14% shot at 3000, 54% at 500, 28% at 600, 12% at 700, 5% at 763 (beat Bonds), 2% at 800.

Sounds like a worthwhile risk to me. Same for Vlad. 26% at 500, 8% at 600, 24% at 3000, 10% 3500. Watching the two of them climb those career records while playing LF/3B/1B/DH would be fun over the next decade+. Bo would've been fun but his bad 2024 plus it seems he wants to go elsewhere would dictate the Jays make a choice - let him play out 2024 and see what makes sense after that. If he leaves, he leaves.

Hrm... just got an email from Sportsnet as I was typing that they are upping the cost for Sportsnet+ to $199 a year from $179 a year. Could they be preparing to up the revenue stream? $20 a year per viewer would be a lot of money, not enough to cover Soto but noteworthy.

I imagine all of Sportnet's costs have not remained static. And baseball is just one part of the pie. Hockey is likely the main concern.

Sportsnet did sell the rights to Monday night hockey to Prime.

"I fully expect that they'll trade Jimenez. I also think that's a mistake and that he had a higher ceiling than Wagner and Kasevich and is a safer bet than O. Martinez."

They might trade Jimenez but don't think it's fair to compare to Kasevich or Wagner. Both would just get back a lot less value. I would rather they trade some other pieces but I'm fine trading anyone if the return is right.

FYI 13 players got a QO thus will cost a draft pick.

• Juan Soto (Yankees)
• Corbin Burnes (Orioles)
• Alex Bregman (Astros)
• Max Fried (Braves)
• Willy Adames (Brewers)
• Pete Alonso (Mets)
• Anthony Santander (Orioles)
• Teoscar Hernandez (Dodgers)
• Nick Pivetta (Red Sox)
• Christian Walker (Diamondbacks)
• Sean Manaea (Mets)
• Luis Severino (Mets)
• Nick Martinez (Reds)

None are a surprise to me. Basically it is just saying 'yeah he is worth $20-21 mil on a 1 year deal'. Some couldn't be offered it due to having one before (Snell) or due to being traded mid-season (Jack Flaherty, Kikuchi) or due to agreements on their old contract to not be offered it (Kim).

Note: Cole canceled his opt-out without the Yankees giving him the extra year. Not sure how that worked, but they are now negotiating an extra year to be tacked on (probably involving deferred money or something).

Excellent post John. I have no idea what they'll do, but I hope it is not Santander. We're all familiar with him via seeing a ton of the O's; if that eye test isn't enough, let's see. He's on the wrong side of 30. His only good season was his walk year (2020 does not count). He and the rest of the O's faded in Aug/Sept.

This seems reasonable:

Sign Vlad, kick the tires on Soto, get arms for the pen but don't pay a ton, check in on Bregman, and check in on a starter in late January, with a check-in on those in the current rotation who might be OK transitioning to the pen. Talk with Bo about a long-term deal, if only to make him feel wanted.

I'll bet Soto goes to the Mets or even goes back to Washington (feel-good story if he genuinely loves the town) before coming here for the same money. Soto is a generational talent who just turned 26. Barring a tragedy, he will be worth every dollar he gets. Unless his eye goes the OBP alone, it will look good with age (like Frank Thomas).

I've decided to give my sports attention to the Leafs this winter rather than the hot stove. They're always on streaming services that we have for other reasons. Also, there's no risk of frustration or disappointment because that's par for the course in Leafland.

Luis De Los Santos has been claimed by the Mets.

I like Chris' plan! Anybody know where greenfrog has gone?

Severino should probably take it. Pivetta, too. Same with Nick Martinez.

Are we saying the Angels were receiving 30M a year from Japan when Othani was on the roster making the minimum salary?That doesn't sound right.

Glad for De Los Santos - hopefully he gets a shot at a backup role in the majors with the Mets. Guy was an organizational soldier who got his reward - ML service time, first hit, etc. now lets see him get a real career out of it, like Otto Lopez might have after a solid 2024.

Genesis Cabrera and Luis Frias both off the 40 man and took free agency. Huh. Cabrera's #'s looked decent on the surface but dig in a bit and they weren't that good. Emmanuel Ramirez also designated for assignment. All while claiming reliever Michael Petersen from the Marlins, a RHP who really tore apart the PCL in relief (33 IP 8 BB 44 SO with 10 saves). Didn't do so well in the majors (71 ERA+ 19 2/3 IP 3 HR 11 BB 14 SO). Looks good to take a flier on.

Genesis Cabrera released. He was pencilled into the bullpen by a lot of people but I never understood it. He just wasn't very good and was set to make a $2.5 Million or so.

MLB Trade Rumors has their top 50 free agents and likely destinations (4 people evaluating). So who do they see going Toronto's way?

• 2 of 4 pick TO as destination: Kirby Yates #38 (1/$14), a RH reliever who closed for Texas in '24 with a 1.17 ERA over 61 2/3 IP (lifetime 130 ERA+), 4.1 BB/9 vs 12.4 K/9 33 saves/1 blown/2 holds. If Romano isn't coming back until mid-season or something this would make sense or if the Jays feel Romano might not be effective in 2025.
• One picked TO: Alex Bregman 3B #3 (7-$182); Anthony Santander LF/DH #9 (4/$80); Tanner Scott #14 LH closer (22/2/11 sv/bl/hld) 125 ERA+ lifetime 4.5 BB/9 10.5 K/9 (4/$56); Jeff Hoffman #18 RH relief (4/$44); Carlos Estevez RH closer (26-5-0) 113 ERA+ lifetime, 2.0 BB/9 8.2 K/9; Joc Pederson LH DH/OF (2/$24); Michael Conforto LH OF (2/$18); Andrew Kittredge #40 RH setup (1/7/37) 121 ERA+ lifetime (2/$14); Kyle Gibson #41 RHP inning eating starter (1/$13); Spencer Turnbull #50 RHP (swing) 154 ERA+ over 7 start/10 relief (1/$7)
• TO listed as a possibility: Soto #1 (13/$600); Snell #4 (5/$160); Sean Manaea #10 LH starter (3/$60); Teoscar Hernandez #11 LF/DH (3/$60); Jurickson Profar #16 LF/1B/DH (3/$45); Tyler O’Neill #19 LF/DH (3/$42); Gleyber Torres #20 2B (2/$36); Kyle Higashioka #36 C (2/$15);

Phew, they have the Jays in on a TON of guys don't they? So in summary...

• OF: (7) Soto, Santander, Pederson, Conforto, Teoscar, Profar, O'Neill
• IF: (2) Bregman, Torres
• C: (1) Higashioka
• SP: (3) Gibson, Manaea, Snell
• RP: (5) Yates, Scott, Hoffman, Estevez, Kittredge
• Swingman: (1) Turnbull

So, who best to chase? Soto obviously, for the pen if those #'s are right Yates, Hoffman, Turnbull - can't see the Jays giving 3+ years to a reliever. The infield and catcher don't jump out at me, I'd chase d'Arnaud, Jansen, or someone else. Higashioka is solid, but 2 years for a backup? Maybe. FYI: Willy Adames all 4 picked to go to the Giants. Soto is 2 Yankee/2 Mets. No way I see the Jays going after a starter unless they decide they need an ace or feel they need a #5 (no faith in Rodríguez or Francis).

If Romano is out half the year, Jays need to non-tender him or come to some extension that suits both sides. $8M is too much to pay for a reliever coming back from surgery especially one who wasn't effective before he got hurt.

They predict Bregman 7/182M covering years 31 to 37. 
He's a pull heavy right handed bat with low OBP. 
They predict Blue Jays/Astros/Astros/Mariners. 

They predict Santander 4/80M covering years 31-34.
He's a switch hitter who naturally hits low balls but seems to have solve his problem with high fastballs hitting 44 HR.
They predict Royals/Blue Jays/Giants/Yankees

They predict 3/60M for Kikuchi and 3 of them have him going to Baltimore.

They predict 4/56M for Tanner Scott.
He's a high leverage lefty reliever.
They predict Red Sox/Red Sox/Blue Jays/Yankees

They predict 3/45M for Profar and 3 of them have him going back to the Padres.

They predict 4/44M for Jeff Hoffman.
He's a right handed reliever.
The predict Blue Jays/Red Sox/Angels/A's
I guess the A's would invest to flip him, but 4 years seems too risky for them.

They predict O'Neil to sign with the Orioles (?), Giants or Pirates (x2).

They predict Carlos Estevez 3/27M.
He's a high leverage right handed reliever.
They predict Phillies/Rangers/A's/Blue Jays.

They predict Joc Pederson for 2/24M.
He's mostly a DH at this point. 
They predict Mets/Mets/Diamondbacks/Blue Jays.

They predict Jansen for 2/20M going to the Cubs (x2), Braves or Guardians.

They predict Conforto for 2/18M.
They have him got to Rangers/Pirates/Blue Jays or Royals.

They predict Kirby Yates for 1/14M.
They have him got to the Yankees/Blue Jays/Blue Jays or Phillies.

They predict Andrew Kittredge for 2/14M. 
A's/Twins/Blue Jays/Rangers

Kyle Gibson 1/13M
Angels/Rangers/Nats/Blue Jays

Spencer Turnbull 1/7M
Padres/Rockies/Blue Jays/Twins.

So the consensus is that the Jays need some relievers and at least one bat.

8M is a bargain for a closer and they gave Chad Green 10.5M a year.
On the other hand, there's a high risk so they would probably want some team options. Now, if they sign somebody else to be the closer, it might change things.

Green made $2.25 million in 2023, when he was still recovering and was unlikely to make a significant contribution, then had a series of convoluted options that led to him earning $10.5 million in 2024 & 2025.

Depending on Romano's medical prognosis, there's probably some opportunity for a creative contract. He's been a very good pitcher for the team, and is a popular hometown guy. Ideally a team would want to avoid looking like they just cut a guy loose after he got hurt, while balancing the risk for the team of signing a guy coming back from a significant injury.

If im running this team I offer Vlad a shotgun take or leave it deal. Pay him market rate + for long term deal with 72 hour deadline.

If Vlad signs then go after Soto with shotgun 7 day deadline offer. If Soto signs great. If Soto does not then move to other agents so on and so forth.

If Vlad does not sign then continue with same Soto shotgun deal but start shopping Vlad to other GMs to see what you get back. Chase Soto and one other big bat or if no Soto interest without Vlad then go after 2-3 other bats.

Yes I realize players wont be bullied this way with deadlines but Jays imho cant play waiting game with these two guys, especially Vlad.

IMO Cabrera got the job done somehow. There are probably a lot of players available like him, so it should be easy to pick up a few.

I'm glad to see the org cut ties with Cabrera, although I always said that about Tim Mayza too, and his house or cards held together quite a while. 

Romano has to come down to the medicals no?  I mean, if his struggles were injuries, not decline, and his condition looks great, I'd bring him back.  It seems the kind action for the athlete too.  But if he's really hurt, he's had his own house of cards act the past few years.  Non-tender and re-sign, if he wants to come back here for his rehab. 

I'm happy for De Los Santos too.  It does feel to me as if the org is certainly taking care of the players up and down the minor league system, and I can get behind a FO that runs things that way.  I hear comments from the players about the facilities and the staff as well.  
Positive word of mouth can't hurt going into free agency.

If you want to feel old....happy birthday to Lloyd Moseby, 65 today.

Davidi has an interesting article up on Sportsnet:

- the Jays are believed to be under the CBT for 2024 but wont know for sure for a few weeks
- given last years budget, the Jays are likely to have $20M to $25M extra to spend on top of their projected 2025 payroll.
-the Jays dont have much margin for error on how they use their available money
-tight money may explain why they let Cabrera go

So it looks like their payroll is going to be tight. They could free up more of course by trading Bassit and/or Bo, and letting Romano walk. But anyone expecting a big UFA signing should adjust their sights. I have to wonder where the Soto to TOR rumours come from.

"given last years budget, the Jays are likely to have $20M to $25M extra to spend on top of their projected 2025 payroll." What is that total dollar amount?

Stoeten on Michael Petersen

"He's a fastball/cutter guy whose four-seamer averaged 97 mph this year"

https://stoeten.substack.com/p/stray-thoughts-it-begins

"What is that total dollar amount?"

I suggest reading the article, but right in and around the CBT first taxation level last year. It was $237M. They are at $211M now.

Soto would be like Ohtani, from a seperate extra budget.

Davidi is using 2024 end of season total and applying Shapiros comment to this total. Big difference as that total is lower than projected total at beginning of the year before the sell off. Last year they would have been higher total had they made the playoffs and it is believed they left extra budget abailable for deadlines additions.

I bet they have 40-65 million to work with.

Petersen had decent numbers in a tough AAA league.

He's from Middlesex, England.

He was drafted by the Pirates in 2012, by the Rangers in 2013, the Giants in 2014 and the Brewers in 2015.
He never made it higher than the 17th round.

He was selected off waivers by the Rockies--who wants to pitch there?
The  Dodgers gave him a shot and let him go, which isn't surprising considering the number of injured pitchers they had.

He's still got 2 options.

Gold glove for Varsho but KK played CF ahead of him at times. Kind of a waste.

"NYY has a higher payroll than the Jays with more holes to plug" as stated by scottt. However they will compete. Getting Luke Weaver cheap was very smart or lucky. I think smart. As a failed long term starter he would have had a variety of pitches. Now he can use what is working best and just go 1-2 innings.

Baltimore is a 95 or so win team as Magpie pointed out so they will be strong. However their pitching is questionable. TB playing in a minor league park would make them better or worse. I don't know. Boston and Toronto should get better. Boston will add. Toronto will improve somehow but will be young with growing pains.

There should be 3 bad teams in the AL. CWS most likely and the other 2 will find a way. Maybe Detroit will pay for their 1 run wins. So lots of competition for a playoff spot.

I don't think the minor league park has an impact on the Rays.
Tampa is never a free agent destination, anyway.
Almost all of their players are under team control.

There could be a small impact on the spirit in the clubhouse, but I wouldn't put a number on that.

Soto would be like Ohtani, from a seperate extra budget.

Possibly, but not to the same extent. Soto is a very good baseball player; Ohtani is an international superstar and one of the most unique players in the history of the game.

So far...
Yarbrough became a free agent--the Jays had a chance to extend him.
It seems that the Jays are shopping for a starter which might mean they prefer to use Rodriguez as a multi-inning guy.
Hard no on Bichette trade requests.

I would get a starter and trade Bassitt. Maybe Buehler would sign short term to rebuild his value.

From TSN: "Atkins also told Jordan Bastian of MLB Network on Tuesday that the Blue Jays are not looking to add a catcher this off-season, with their focus elsewhere"

Baffling.

Blue Jays minor league free agents
Toronto Blue Jays
RHP Andrew Bechtold (AA)
RHP Evan Elliott (R)
RHP Sebastian Espino (A)
RHP Braydon Fisher (AAA)
RHP Luis Frias (AAA)
RHP Adrian Hernandez (AA)
RHP James Kaprielian (AAA)
RHP Abdiel Mendoza (AA)
RHP Eric Pardinho (AAA)
RHP Yerry Rodriguez (AAA)
C Jose Ferrer (A)
C Payton Henry (AAA)
C Max McDowell (AAA)
1B Jamari Baylor (A+)
2B Rafael Lantigua (AAA)

Baffling or maybe you were right about tight budget. If they only have 25 million or so the they're gonna need that for bullpen and OF.

"Atkins, when speaking to MLB.com's Jordan Bastian, indicated that the team is not prioritizing adding catching after shipping out Danny Jansen at the trade deadline in the summer.
“Not a priority for us," Atkins said. "If we were [seeking a catcher], in an ideal world, it would be a left-handed hitting, polished receiver. Those guys are either locked up or valuable to other teams. We feel good about the options we have.”

Atkins also said that Varsho will not be ready for opening day.

Public commentary relating to my post from yesterday about payroll room and Shi Davidi's possible inaccuracy. Found this link through Mendocino's link (looked it up today).

https://x.com/JoshuaHowsam/status/1853803330524377579

"Thing is, as Josh Howsam quickly pointed out on Twitter, these figures assume the club will have a payroll that doesn’t move much from where they ended 2024, not where they started it. At first they were on course to be quite a bit higher—over the CBT threshold, in fact—and only got under because of the deadline sell-off."

"Possibly, but not to the same extent. Soto is a very good baseball player; Ohtani is an international superstar and one of the most unique players in the history of the game."

Yes, But Soto is maybe the best free agent available ever. Ohtani is more valuable but he's also 4 years older. Having a 26 YO with 36 career WAR as a free agent is unheard of. (Harper close but much less predictable career before then)


"From TSN: "Atkins also told Jordan Bastian of MLB Network on Tuesday that the Blue Jays are not looking to add a catcher this off-season, with their focus elsewhere"

Baffling."


Not really baffling at all. First off, Jays aren't looking to it doesn't mean they won't if opportunity strikes. Second, Jays have limited resources and backup catcher is not the most glaring need. Let's say Kirk plays 120 games. You then need 40-50 games of backup catcher. Streamer projection for Heinemen is 47 games and 0.7 WAR. Projection for D'Arnaud over same period is 1 WAR. You'd be spending like $10M extra a year for a fraction of a win. Would much rather spend that money elsewhere. Yes, Kirk could get hurt and then Jays would need a catcher but you can't carry starter-calibre backups everywhere.

People need to understand the impacts of FX on the Jays' annual budgets. There is massive financial difference to the Jays at a .70-.72 dollar versus a .78-80 dollar and you can see that over the history of the Jays' payroll.

What's your source, Mendocino? I ask because based on signing dates, these players are also eligible for free agency:

Rainer Nunez
Eddinson Paulino
Alex De Jesus
Yohendrick Pinango
Gabriel Martinez
Je'Von Ward

I assume they must have signed 2025 milb contracts already, especially Paulino who went to the AFL.

"Not really baffling at all."

My point is that the GM, before FA starts, is already discounting an area to improve the team.

Meanwhile he is going to be chasing all the bigshot free agents and coming up short - this is his well established M.O. Then he will scrounge around for old guys on one year deals.

Jansen is coming off a year where he had a very poor OPS+ ( of 87 (75 in BOS) and made $5.2M. He was decent with the bat the three previous years. There is at least a chance he takes a deal paying maybe $4M. A good GM would keep that possibility open.

That wouldn't be my focus either.
They need 2 good relievers and 2 bats. Or Soto.

Bichette
Soto
Vlad
Horwitz
Springer
Varsho
Kirk
Wagner
Clement

Jansen was worth 0.6-0.7 bWAR the last 3 years and he was a backup with a 75 OPS+ for Boston.

I think Phil Clarke hits enough from the left side to be an option should he be suitable defensively.

"My point is that the GM, before FA starts, is already discounting an area to improve the team."

Except he hasn't discounted it. Saying "we are not looking to add" is not the same as saying "We refuse to add". He's just saying they aren't particularly looking which is fair. If someone's price drops enough to make sense, and they have payroll, I'm sure they'd add.

Some interesting notes from Ben Nicholson-Smith on a podcast yesterday. Jays are looking more for a starter than a reliever right now an aiming above the Kikuchi tier (one executive thinks they are chasing Fried). That way they can move Rodriguez to bullpen which would be pretty big help and massively upgrade rotation. They are looking to trade some of the bubble guys for relievers (makes sense to not spend more money there.) Swanson, Tate, and Romano are all legitimate non-tender options.

I think they keep Swanson who is at $2.8M because he's been a good reliever for a couple of years and looked back there by end of season (and $2.8M isn't much for that). Tate will probably be non-tendered at $2.3M. Can get someone similar for minimum I think. Romano depends on medicals I guess. $8M is a lot for a guy you don't know if he's going to be healthy but nothing for a guy you think could be your closer.

Atkin's actual quote on the catcher situation, according to Keegan Matheson, was "Not a priority for us," which doesn't mean they're not looking.

Also: Nothing anyone says publicly in the offseason means anything.

My biggest concern right now is that it looks like the Jays might only have like $25M to spend. If that's the case, trying to contend is just dumb. Jays need at least one middle of the order bat, one top of the rotation pitcher and one late inning guy. Don't see how that's less than $50M.

Firstly, based on what BNS said, I'm glad the Jays seem to be prioritizing the rotation more than the bullpen. Aside from the risk involved with relying on both Francis and Rodriguez in the top 5, there is real decline potential with Bassitt and Gausman (although Gausman's decline may just be "ace to mid rotation starter" decline). Ideally they would add someone closer to the top of the rotation than the bottom, so Fried would be an interesting name, but a lot will be depend on what they have to spend. There's no real clarity on what the payroll room will be. Cabrera being let go, while justifiable, may be an indication that every dollar is going to count this winter. If that's the case, then I'd have no issues with non-tendering all of Romano (due to health only), Swanson, Tate, and Pop.

link

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/minor-league-free-agents-2024/

Trying to contend is dumb but so long as they don't damage the future its dumb with limited consequences.

The team needs a quality starter far more badly than a big bat. I think having Rodriguez and a resigned Yarborough in the pen next year would be a very good thing.

Seemed dumb at first to chase starting pitching, but the more I look the more it makes sense. There is an obvious person to move to the pen in Rodriguez, Fangraphs has 3 FA pitchers as 3+ WAR guys (Burnes, Snell, and Fried) with 11 more in the 2's. 5 of those 14 have QO's attached (Burnes, Fried, Pivetta, Manaea, and Severino) plus Nick Martinez had 3.5 fWAR in 24, but projected at 1.8 for '25 with a QO. 1 more guy in the 2's with a 3.3 in '24 was Michael Wacha but KC resigned him already (3 years $51 mil). Snell, Kikuchi, Flaherty, Eovaldi, Cobb, Scherzer, Manaea, Kershaw, and Boyd are projected at 2.0+ with no QO thus all very tempting targets. Like with the OF'ers the Jays might be best served by picking their favorite and chasing him now, but if they can't get their #1 choice to just sit back and wait them out. Come January a few of these guys will be unsigned and getting desperate.

I guess many posters don't read through all posts as there are re-posts of quotes.

Nigel, I agree they need help in the rotation but not any more than a power bat is needed. The risk of relying on Vlad, Bo and Varsho and Springer to power your offense is far greater than relying on Gausman, Berrios, Bassitt, Francis and Rodriguez.

Personally I think the post by dalimon5 clearly illustrates why contending is futile. There are too many holes with the pitching and the offense (plus the lack of impact help - or to trade - in the minors) to fix in one offseason. Especially not with NYY, BOS and BAL (and probably TB) all better/deeper teams.

They're going to talk big but field a mediocre team in hopes of filling seats.

As a large market team, they get penalized for tanking so that's not a realistic strategy.
There are no reason why they can't be as good as they were 2 or 3 years ago.
Boston was exactly what you're afraid the Jays will be, a team not quite good enough to contend.

The Yankees and Red Sox are "good" because they have a high payroll.
As long as the Jays spend they'll be competitive.
There are no All-Star caliber players coming back in trades for good players, just overrated prospects.

Not contending is speculation of a 79-83 record. Contending (WC) is a 86-90 record. This is IMHO. Is this fair?

So some are saying (Richard Griffin) that the Jays have about $52 mil available to spend. So how to cover LF/DH/3B or 1B (depending on Vlad)/starter/2B/bullpen (2-3)?

My first thoughts (subject to change based on what others say, what rumors show up, etc.) using the top 50 FA from MLBTR for $ estimates.

• LF: Soto would be sweet but $46 mil per (and rising) is a LOT, Santander at $20 per a lot easier.
• DH: O’Neill - $14 per, not bad, bats right so can be mixed with many of the kids who bat left.
• 3B/1B: Horwitz at 1B, no extra cost. Vlad moves here at times for Clement to play at 3B.
• SP: Burnes is $28.5, Snell $32 (fewer years), Fried $26. Any would be nice and fill the #1 slot.
• 2B: save cash and use kids - Wagner-Jimenez-Martinez-Schneider plus Clement all could cover it.
• Pen: with a starter Rodriguez moves here, so 1-2 more needed. Michael Soroka is very tempting - sucked as a starter, great in pen $7 mil per works for me (Canadian too). Spencer Turnbull is also a starter made into reliever who can be had for $7 mil. Having 3 guys who were starters but now relievers would be a big asset (multi-inning guys) in Rodriguez-Turnbull-Soroka.

Net cost $20+14+Fried+pen = $74 mil roughly. Over budget by $22 mil. Uh oh. Cut O'Neill and keep DH open for everyone, then only $7 mil over budget (could cut one of those 2 relievers I listed, I'd cut Turnbull). So LF: Santander, DH: mix, 3B: Vlad/Clement, 1B: Horwitz/Vlad, 2B: kids, SP: Fried, Pen Rodriguez, Soroka both put there. A bit more power but not as much as desired. Stronger pen and rotation with Manoah returning mid-season for anyone who is hurt/ineffective and Soroka/Rodriguez as 6th men until then. Not ideal, but it could work. Amazing how fast $52 mil gets spent. Now, if Soto can be added as 'special funds' then things shift a bit. My guess is the Jays might have an extra $10 mil available but want to hold that for mid-season trades. So might go for O'Neill in LF to save another $6 mil. It'll be interesting to see what they do. Other thoughts on how to make it work?

Vlad is set to make around $30M this year so don't see an extension adding much at all to 2025 salary. If it is $50M, Jays in much better shape.

Don't forget there are debatable non-tender candidates like Swanson and Romano.

Oh true enough on those other non-tender, but if they are then the Jays will probably shift that cash straight to other relievers ($8/$3.2 mil for Romano/Swanson roughly). Vlad they have at $28 mil, but a 13 year $350 mil (as estimated by some) is $27 mil per so no real change (last 3 years mostly to cut annual value I'd expect for payroll flexibility).

FWIW, the best bullpens in baseball were built almost exclusively from in-house milb pitchers, waiver claims, milb FAs and minor trades. Few teams build top quality bullpens by spending big money on relievers via trade or free agency.

The generally seen as a killer pen was the 92/93 teams. Henke sorta like a trade (via no longer in existence free agency compensation), trades: Duane Ward, Mark Eichhorn, Al Leiter; In House: David Wells, Pat Hentgen, Bob McDonald, Mike Timlin, Tony Castillo, Woody Williams; Free agent: Danny Cox. So a mix of in house, trades, and a free agent. Plus, of course, the infamous Ken Dayley (free agent in 1990/91 off season, threw total of 5 IP here due to a major vertigo problem, thus cruelly nicknamed dizzy Dayley by many fans).

The 2008 pen was 'wow' 2.94 ERA leading to a sOPS+ of 82 (OPS+ against vs all other relievers). Free Agents: BJ Ryan, Scott Downs, Jesse Carlson, Shawn Camp, John Parrish, Armando Benítez; trades: Jason Fraser, Brian Tallet, Brian Wolfe, Jeremy Accardo; In House: Brandon League - that is everyone who appeared in more than 1 game in relief for that team.

Trades and in house obviously were critical to the 92/93 pens. Note how Henke & Ward were still minor leaguers mostly when acquired (both had some ML experience but not much). But for 2008, one of the Jays best ever, just 1 in house guy was used beyond 1 game. Huh. Caught me offguard.

Bottom line - there are many ways to build a killer pen, in house by far the cheapest, followed by trades for guys who are on the edge of the majors. Free agents can be useful though.

Here's my play:

Sign Anthony Santander 22 million

Shane Bieber 15 million

Sign Mike Soroka 7 million

Will Wagner 2B
Bo Bichette SS
Vladimir Guerrero 3B
Anthony Santander DH
Joc Pederson 1B
Alejandro Kirk C
Daulton Varsho OF
George Springer OF
Joey Loperfido OF

Addison Barger, Ernie Clement, Spencer Horwitz

Gausman
Berrios
Bassit
Francis
Boyd/Bieber

Soroka
Rodriguez
Little
Green
Romano

Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith says the Jays are looking closely at Romano now, as he throws bullpen sessions in Dunedin. If he is at 93/94 for radar gun readings he will probably be dumped, if he is at 98/99 he'll probably be kept. Not often a bullpen session is that critical, but it makes sense - they need to know if he has the power to be a lights out closer or if he doesn't. Given BNS works for a Rogers company odds are good he knows stuff we don't. He also said Swanson and Tate are high on the non-tender list debate. So Romano/Swanson/Tate could clear (based on Cot's estimates) $7.75/$2.925/$1.6 mil from the payroll = $12.275 mil. Of course, ML minimum is $0.76 mil so the savings on Tate are minimal ($840k), a touch more on Swanson ($2.165 mil), and of note on Romano ($6.99 mil). Wouldn't be shocked if they offer all of them minor league deals or lower dollar amount deals. Tate I would be a touch surprised if they don't keep as they seemed to think a lot of his potential but he is a free agent after 2025 so is he worth the effort? Maybe not on a ML deal, but yes on a minor league one. Swanson I'd expect to be kept as he looked decent and the marginal cost isn't that big on a $240 mil payroll. Romano is the big one as it is him or one of the 2 I listed before (Turnbull, Soroka) and those 2 are healthy and ready vs if Romano isn't throwing near his healthy ability right now. If Romano signed a 2 year deal (say $2 mil in 2025, $8 in 2026) then they might hold him even at lower velocity.

Thanks to dalimon5's list of important off season dates, Nov 19 is rule 5 additions. Nov 22 is the non tender date. I expect interesting things to happen.

Weird on MLBTR - Bregman saying he is open to moving to 2B, as is Adames (who is willing to move to 3B as well), as is Kim (2B/SS/3B he doesn't care).

An interesting addition to the 3B situation is Hyeseong Kim from Korea - Entering his age 26 season, he has hit 304/364/403 lifetime in Korea, but 326/383/458 last year and 335/396/446 the year before. He last played 3B in 2020 (9 games) and has been at 2B/SS ever since (mostly 2B). Not sure how good a fit he'd be as he seems more a 2B now, but still an interesting addition to the puzzle. High end defense (3 gold gloves in a row). Seattle the favorite to get him. Just figured he was worth a quick look, speed, defense, some pop but not a ton (11 HR last year is his career high). Can't see the Jays signing him, but one never knows.

Also of note: Bregman's arm is said to be weak and getting weaker, thus a move off 3B is inevitable. So that might help explain all the moving Vlad to 3B talk lately. There just isn't a viable alternative outside of leaving Clement there (high end defense, low OBP as walks are not his thing, nor are K's which is nice) as Barger didn't look ready with the bat, and lord knows with Orelvis Martinez.

So my bet at 3B is still Vlad mostly (100-120 games) with Clement getting a fair amount of time there and the kids getting mixed in (Barger, Martinez) as needed/earned. 1B Horwitz with Vlad getting some time there too (40-60 games). SS Bo with Jimenez and Clement getting time when Bo needs a day off, 2B Wagner/Jimenez/Clement/Schneider with Orelvis sneaking in if he forces the issues or an injury/ineffectiveness happens.

Steamer projections are out... player fWAR/600 PA (450 for catchers) listed I figure per 600 PA is more useful than mixing in their estimates of playing time. So adjust accordingly in your own mind - remember 2.0 is expected from a regular, 5.0 an all-star, 7.0 MVP shot, 10.0 HOF season (only Roger Clemens has done that as a Jay). FG has 81 players projected for the Jays. I'll list guys who we know are in contention for a job, or who are mentioned here often, or who I just like for whatever reason.

• C: Kirk (4.2), Heineman (1.7), Phil Clarke (1.6), Nick Raposo (0.9)
• 1B: Vlad (4.5), Horwitz (2.2)
• 2B: Wagner (3.3, 3rd best on Jays), Schneider (1.9), Orelvis (1.7)
• 3B: Clement (2.6), Barger (1.9)
• SS: Bo (3.3), Jimenez (2.6), Kasevich (1.7)
• LF: Roden (1.9), Lukes (1.8), McAdoo (1.6), Schreck (1.3), Clase (0.5), Berroa (0.3), Loperfido (0.2), Will Robertson (-0.6)
• CF: Varsho (3.0)
• RF: Springer (1.7)
• DH will be whoever needs a rest (Vlad & Springer most often I suspect, but maybe a fair amount of time here for Bo too)

So sub 2.0 at LF and RF only - and not by much. Roden and Lukes both are damn close while Loperfido who the team gave tons of chances to late is nowhere near. Springer...well...we all know he is nearing the end, just hoping for a good dead cat bounce year (he was the best in MLB for a month last year (June 25-end of July 322/391/635), and the worst the rest of the year pretty much (pre June 25: 188/278/281, post July 31st: 200/284/329). Yikes, and weird. His interview on Wilner's podcast was interesting - he blames himself for the bad year but doesn't seem to really know why and feels he will make a comeback. Lets hope. There is also a fun one with Alan Roden & Josh Kasevich who seem to be very good friends who have a blast. Really hope the Jays give Roden a good look if a spot is open come spring, much rather see him than Loperfido - funny as Loperfido pre-24 looked like a good bet (143 wRC+ in AA at 24, 166 in A+ at age 23, 124 in AAA in '24, but just 74 in the majors often looking bad, now projected as an 83 wRC+ for '25). Prospects can flip fortunes quickly.

If FA flops as many expect wouldn't be shocked to see Roden/Schneider split LF or Loperfido/Schneider depending on who does well in spring (Lukes as bench backup).

So my guess for 13 hitters...
Kirk-Heineman, Vlad, Horwitz, Wagner, Schneider, Clement, Bo, Jimenez, Loperfido, Varsho, Springer, Lukes. With Loperfido on a short leash. For options: Horwitz, Lukes, Clase have 1 option each left. Jimenez & Heineman are out of options, Orelvis on his final option, as is Barger. Loperfido & Berroa have 2 each.

One thing to keep in mind which goes to team direction is that signing a player with a QO means Jays would lose around the 45th overall pick which is a significant prospect. For Juan Soto? Who cares? But if you're talking about someone like Santander or Walker etc.., it should be a big factor. You're giving up what would be a better prospect in a weak system for someone who won't be a difference maker. For where the Jays are right now, that doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me.

Santander had an OPS of 134 last season. The list of Jays who exceeded that level of production has one name on it. The team played Schneider (93 games) Varsho (67), Loperfido (30), Lukes(12) and Barger (10) at left field last year. So, I can’t see an argument that Santander wouldn’t be a difference maker on this team. I really don’t think the team should hesitate to pick him up, he would be a huge help

"Santander had an OPS of 134 last season. The list of Jays who exceeded that level of production has one name on it."

Santander had a WRC+ of 129 which is a career year. The 2 years before it was 122 and 119. Streamer has him at 119 for next year. He's probably a 2.5 WAR player or so for a couple of years and then like 1.5-2 for a couple. That's if things go reasonably well. Could the Jays use him? Absolutely. For a 5th place team, do I want to give up the #45 pick and like $20-25M a year for 4 years for this player? Absolutely not. He would make sense if the Jays were on the cusp of the playoffs with a deep system and just needed some power but that's not where they are.

Excellent point Glevin. The QO will need to factor in this winter, the Jays don't want to waste picks and IFA money to get a guy who might not be better than the inhouse options. Looking at projections I'd lean hard against guys with a QO who are under 3 WAR projected for 2025 as odds are they'll decline unless under 30 (which is very few) so Soto, Bregman, and Adames are the only ones worth a QO by that measure among hitters, add in Burnes, Snell, Fried for pitchers. Snell is the only one with a 3+ WAR projected who doesn't have a QO. Sub 3's with a QO (thus not a good idea to sign imo) are Santander, Pivetta (SP), Walker (1B), Alonso (1B), Teoscar (LF), Manaea (SP), Severino (SP), and Nick Martinez (SP projected at 1.8). Anyone signing Nick Martinez is being foolish imo unless there is a lot more indicating his 3.5 this year was not a fluke (IE: strong scouting reports). IMO looking at his stats and projections Martinez would be smart to take that QO.

So, with those projections and QO's who do I like now in LF? After Soto it drops drastically as I wouldn't give up picks/IFA for any of the rest, all projected at 2.5 or less for 2025 and none under age 30, thus very unlikely to improve or stay at that level. Given Roden is projected at 1.9 these guys don't add a heck of a lot. Profar might be nice but boy is he variable (negative WAR 2 of the past 4 years, 4.3 last year and 2.4 the other positive year). His underlying #'s were nice though - improved barreling, exit velocity, Hard Hit%. His defense was poor in LF (no shock, always has been). Joc Pederson is similar - great year (3.0), poor projection (1.6) but his underlying #'s don't show a big shift from the past. Hrm. Either of those guys I'd take on a 1-2 year deal but not at a high price. Tyler O'Neill is similar again - 2.5 last year 1.8 projected but isn't a total nightmare on defense and is just turning 30 so more hope there.

Ugh. I'd love the Jays to add power but outside of Soto no one excites me anymore. The guys here already might outperform most of the free agents or be close enough that you are paying for very little advantage but lots of risk. Ugh. Not what I wanted to see, but on a blunt 'is this worth doing by the numbers' basis the Jays should be all-in on Soto, then go hard on trade possibilities or go for a starter - be it Snell, Fried, or Burnes. Yeah, that'll make the media and fans go nuts 'where is the extra power' if they fail on the Soto sweepstakes, but it might be the best move. Get Fried (6/$156 - $26 per), and a few relievers and call it a day on the FA area, while trying to do trades for better offense (assuming no Soto).

Looking at the projection for Boston, for comparison's sake.

Devers 3.8 fWAR
Chase Meidroth 3.1 (Seems weird, a AAA UT who isn't even a top prospect)
Kristian Campbell 2.8
Jarren Duran 2.6
Triston Casas 2.4
Mickey Gasper 2.4 (has played 13 games, -0.3 fWAR)
Vaugh Grissom 2.2
Wilyer Abreu 2.1
Ceddane Rafaela 2.0
Kyle Teel 2.0
Marcelo Mayer 2.0

If Santander is the best fit, than losing a prospect isn't an issue.
Who's the last guy drafted 45th or earlier who was better than Santander?
Bichette was drafted 66th, Zeuch and Woodman were 21 and 57.
Warmoth (22) and Pearson (28).
Groshans (12)
Manoah (11)
Austin Martin (5)
Hoglund (19)
Barriera (23)
Nimmala (20)
Yesavage (20)

If they were OK trading Hoglund and Martin, why would they hesitate on a second round pick?

Anthony Santander outperforms his WAR rating and OPS lines. He is a power switch hitting OF who would massively boost this line up. This team hasn't had a strong LH hitter in the top of the order since what, Lyle Overbay, Adam Lind? Santander is a big improvement and the next best thing after guys like Soto, Freeman and Seager for a team thats been trotting out Biggio, Varsho, Vogelbach and KK.

Its all about value based on needs. A Toyota Sienna is pretty valuable when you have 4 kids. Comparing it to a Sedan is kinda useless. #45 pick being greater than the LHH you need is similar point.

Gunner Henderson #42 2019

#45 pick in 2024 draft = $ 2.07m

Anthony Santander outperforms his WAR rating and OPS lines"

I coud see arguments for outperforming WAR for a bunch of offense-only players (Like Vlad) but how do you outperform your WRC+? Anyway, the argument is not about Santander being bad (although I think he's not great) it's about where the Jays are in the competition cycle. A fifth place team with a weak system needs to build the system up.

There are no cycle. Some teams operate with a low budget and  focus on building their system.
Boston went from 5th to 1st in 2013 and again in 2016.
They are not particularly great right now. Nor are the Rays. And the Yankees are built around Judge who can miss lots of time.

I think our perception of Santander stems from the fact he's OPS'D over 1.000 against the Jays three times in the last five seasons. That's 21 bombs, too.

I think he's the most realistic target for a big bat signing here. Being realistic, you're not getting Soto. Bregman would be interesting, it would kind of be like AA adding Russ Martin in 2014.. (his value also had a playoff magic pixie dust good/tough vi es in the clubhouae quality to it). I feel like Bregman would be good for that and we would still produce well for a few years. But he's not signing in Toronto, even if Springer helped recruit him or something.


That leaves bats by trade. Rooker is certainly interesting, but then you're basically emptying the cupboard again and doing that for Brent Rooker?

Which is why I think you see a lot of reports about the Jays hunting starters. Pete Walker is probably known around the league as a great pitching coach. Rogers Centre no longer is this great batters mecca. They might be able a bigger fish and add more value through pitching. It's certainly interesting.

Shane Bieber might be perfect on a two year deal and was drafted by Shapiro and Atkins.

What’s interesting to me is that Ben Nicholson-Smith has mentioned multiple times in the past couple of days that the Jays are in on Gleyber Torres and trying to upgrade 2B in general. Seems odd given the amount of internal depth at that position but I think there’s a real possibility that they realize the non-Soto options are all flawed and decide to hunt the best value where they can find it. Someone like Torres has flaws but projection-wise is probably as good a bet to put up a 3 WAR season in 2025 as the OF options, without the QO attached and (most likely) without a super long commitment involved. That might be where they are leaning, with their big contract being saved for the rotation.

I’m not a fan of losing a pick and spending big money on Santander. He would definitely fill a need and help the roster but if every dollar matters then I think there’s a more prudent way to spread it out.

"What’s interesting to me is that Ben Nicholson-Smith has mentioned multiple times in the past couple of days that the Jays are in on Gleyber Torres and trying to upgrade 2B in general."

I like Torres for a couple of reasons beyond the draft pick. First, he is 27 so if you sign him for like 3-4 years, you're getting him until 30-31 so likely not even decline phase yet. Second, I generally like signing players off down years rather than off career years. In 2023, Torres had a WRC+ of 120 to Santander's 119. In the second half, his WRC+ was 124. He's a good hitter in his prime. The only thing that gives me pause here is that I quite like Will Wagner, certainly more than the Jays LF or 3B options and think he'd likely be fine in a near everyday roll. Neither Wagner nor Torres have arm strength to play 3B either. Maybe the Jays are planning to move Vlad to 3B or trade Horwitz or something that would open up other spots though.

Torres is a bit like Javier Baez. Good moments but no focus.
Also 2B is not an area to improve and Torres is a right bat. 
As Horwitz demonstrated, anybody can play 2B so why would that be an area to upgrade?

When they signed Semien to play 2B, they simply tried to move Biggio to 3B and that was a disaster.
Both Bregman and Adames have expressed willingness to play 2B while Torres refused to move to 3B when asked to.
That's not because the market is flooded at 2B.

Also, signing a guy who isn't good enough for the Yankees would feel like a punch to the gut.

BN-S also mentioned that the Jays are interested in Kim who is all defense at 2B.
Seems like a huge step back from IKF and what would be the point? Just to block the left bats they already have?

Jays always talk to everybody in the off-season, so I just see this as checking the options should the Jays need to backfill the infield following a trade.

They traded first round picks to get Berrios and Chapman.
They lost draft picks to sign Springer and Bassitt.
It's clearly not a concern, especially now as they can't afford another down year.

Torres makes zero sense unless he is willing to move to 3B or LF. With only so many dollars, signing a 2B would be pretty incredibly stupid on the Jays part imo. Torres' peak is 3.6 fWAR (2023) with one other year in the 3's (2019). He has power but meh speed, poor defense, good but not wow OBP (330 lifetime). He is useful, don't get me wrong, but not a piece that fits unless the Jays are planning to trade away a batch of those guys at 2B. He is projected to be a 2.9 fWAR guy in 2025, Wagner 1.9-2.0 over just 86 games. By projections it is a no-brainer, you give the job to the minimum salary kid you already have (Steamer 600 PA is 2.6 for Torres, 3.3 for Wagner).

Now, are projections perfect? Heck no. But when you have a guy who looked good in '24 and is projected to be very good in '25 who you have full control of for 6 more years why wouldn't you put him in? Now, move Torres to LF and his projected 108 wRC+ doesn't look so good, but his lifetime 113 and 120 in '23 both look decent, especially if you assume not having to do as much on defense might loosen him up and get the focus more on hitting thus resulting in better #'s (a general theory but I've never checked if it holds up).

The avoiding draft pick losses is more due to where the Jays are right now. They are a last place team going into 2025, they need to plan both for '25 and for the future beyond that. Losing a lot of picks (and cap space) is not a path to long term success unless you are getting someone who will help for 3-5+ years. Most FA's won't. Fried, Soto both would thus why I'd love the Jays to chase them. Teoscar, Santander, Walker, and Alonso are far less likely to be 2+ WAR guys for 3+ years (I wouldn't be shocked if one of them collapses in 2025). Now, if they come down in price they'd be tempting (more room to invest elsewhere) but as is, no thanks. I suspect Roden, Wagner, and a few other kids might out perform them as soon as '25 and for a lot less $$$.

I can easily see better value in someone like Torres vs Santander.

Griffin proposed recently a trade of one or more INF from the Jays to the Rockies where their numbers would trend up. Return would be Cal Quantril to help fill out the rotation.

I expect 2 of following players to be traded: Spencer Horwitz, Will Wagner, Joey Loperfido, Leo Jimenez and Addison Barger (nice power for COL).

Hopefully the Jays can get some SP or RP in return then spend their budget on a stud SP and power bat.

"It's clearly not a concern, especially now as they can't afford another down year."

The players you mentioned were added in anticipation of Bo, Vlad and Cavan hitting their prime.

Cavan flopped, and Bo and Vlad are on their way to playing their last season for the Jays.

Draft picks and prospects matter because the farm system is terrible and the Jays are clearly headed to a rebuild after this season. The more they mortgage the future to try and contend in 2025, the more painful the rebuild.

"I like Torres for a couple of reasons beyond the draft pick."

Agreed. He's not a great defensive player and will have his mental lapses, but from a pure value/talent standpoint, he's really not a bad fit given the alternatives. He's also only a year and a half older than Wagner with an actual track record and possibly some upside left with the bat.

What might explain the perceived need at 2B might simply be timeline. Shapiro isn't thinking about beyond 2025, for obvious reasons. Wagner might make the most sense to put at 2B from a long-term standpoint, but he's far from a guarantee to turn into a starting caliber player, and as we saw with Davis Schneider (who last year at this time was projected to be a 3 WAR player), no one knows what will happen once pitchers adjust. It would be a fairly sizable risk for a FO with no margin for error. Clement could at least gobble up a 1-2 WAR based on defense and base running alone. The internal 2B options all come with their own specific set of risk and uncertainty.

MLBTrade Rumours has Torres getting $36M over 2 years.

Torres had a 101 OPS+ and was 1.8 WAR in 154 games last year.

Horwitz had a 125 OPS+ and was 1.2 WAR in 97 games. He made $741,000. The Jays also Wagner, Jimenez, Orelvis, and maybe Schneider (I have given up on him, but who knows).

The Jays have a limited budget. It would be idiocy to blow $18M of the $25 M they have to spend on Torres - who is a marginal upgrade on Horwitz (if at all) and plays a position of depth.

Torres had a 2.6 WAR (114 wRC+) and 3.6 WAR (120 wRC+) in 2022 and 2023 respectively. He had a down year in 2024, but did have a 122 wRC+ (324 PA, 1.5 WAR) from July onwards, and a 115 wRC+ in the playoffs. So any team signing him would be assuming he's closer to the player he was in 2022-23 + the 2nd half of 2024, which I think is a fair gamble to take depending on cost. I'd be pretty surprised if MLBTR's projection of Torres' deal is what he actually gets. My guess is he's either signing a one year prove it deal to enter the market again next season, or he gets more years to decrease the AAV, and in either scenario I highly doubt he gets $18M per season.

Also I'm not sure we can look at Horwitz as a 2B. The team barely played him there post trade deadline. He's likely firmly a 1B/DH at this point, which does make him a trade piece if Vlad sticks at 1B. A Wagner/Jimenez platoon is the best way to go internally, most likely, but again, is the FO going to put that trust on 2 rookies when they are fighting for their jobs?

If the Jays really only have $25M to spend then that presents a whole different set of problems. I don't think that's accurate. My guess is the number is probably closer to $50M, which is why we are hearing talk about Fried, Torres, and others. I'm not saying Torres is the answer, but it's really not a bad option when you consider the alternatives are either guys coming off injury (Kim) or players in their 30's who are going to get massively overpaid + cost a draft pick (Bregman, Santander, Teo, etc).

"the farm system is terrible"

Fangraphs has the Jays at 23rd in their farm system rankings.

https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/farm-system-rankings

I haven't looked elsewhere but it doesn't seem an unreasonable rank. All other AL East teams are ranked significantly better.

If I was the Jays I would certainly be looking at players with a QO. Why? Because they’ll be cheaper. You'll get a better player for the money. Draft picks are nice to have, possibly very nice to have. But they are just draft picks. Baseball ain't the NBA.

Horwitz isn't a 2Bman and won't play there. After August, Jays barely played him there after mid-august just stopped completely. If they don't upgrade, will be Wagner/Clement/Jimenez probably. Not their weakest position but also could improve. Torres had an awful first half (somewhat caused by groin issue) but other than that, he has been a good hitter for 3 years in a row. He could easily be a 3 WAR player. (Steamer projects him for 2.9 WAR).

Each draft pick is a lottery ticket. Yes, the majority won't pay off but some do. With a high pick this year each ticket is worth a lot more than in past years. After round 1 the Jays pick 7th in each round depending on QO and who signs who. If the Dodgers or Yankees sign anyone on a QO the Jays could move up a slot in round 2 or 3 as the NYY or LAD would shift below the Jays in the next round I believe. The big advantage is the extra cash it opens up for draft picks, thus allowing you to take higher level talent. Last year Washington was #7 for draft bonus pool (where the Jays likely will be) and had $13,895,100 to spend. The Jays by sneaking into the playoffs were limited to $8,987,000. $5 mil roughly is a lot of extra space to chase better talent with, even before factoring in when you get to pick them. The Jays 2nd round pick is worth about $2 mil of cap space, which can be a big difference when trying to sign a top talent.

Wasting draft picks to sign 'meh' talent is a losing strategy. If you are signing stars, it is the cost of doing business. But for guys who might fight to get to 2 WAR? Just plain old dumb. Teams figured this out awhile ago and act accordingly. I suspect Nick Pivetta, Pete Alonso, and others on that QO list will find it much harder to get that deal they dreamed of. While others like Profar, Kikuchi, and Snell will find deals easier to sign without that dragging them down. The Jays have a weak farm but I see kids who are comparable in talent to free agents for LF (Roden) and 2B (Wagner) without feeling like I'm stretching too much. We'll see what happens in the end, but I'm betting the Jays are not signing anyone with a QO unless the get a big fish like Soto or Fried.

"Torres had a 101 OPS+ and was 1.8 WAR in 154 games last year.

Horwitz had a 125 OPS+ and was 1.2 WAR in 97 games. He made $741,000. The Jays also Wagner, Jimenez, Orelvis, and maybe Schneider (I have given up on him, but who knows).

The Jays have a limited budget. It would be idiocy to blow $18M of the $25 M they have to spend on Torres - who is a marginal upgrade on Horwitz (if at all) and plays a position of depth."

You're using small sample size. 1200ABS needed to properly gauge a player. Using oyur logic you could have said last year that Davis Schneider could be the effery day 2B and would be a big improvement over someone like Torres.

The importance of QO differs greatly by team. If you're a team picking 63rd vs 45th in the second round, that's a lot less valuable. If you're a team with a stacked system, you don't need the prospect as much. Most importantly, if you're a team on the cusp of competing, then it's worth it to lose the pick. Jays are picking early, have a weak system, and finished 5th last year. The pick matters more to them than most other teams (or should).

GMs don't build their teams in function of their farm systems.
When a team is not competitive they hoard every draft picks.
The chance of a 45th pick making a difference is very low and that's over several years.
They could pick a franchise player in the first round and nobody will remember that they didn't have a pick in the first round.

"The importance of QO differs greatly by team. If you're a team picking 63rd vs 45th in the second round, that's a lot less valuable. If you're a team with a stacked system, you don't need the prospect as much. Most importantly, if you're a team on the cusp of competing, then it's worth it to lose the pick. Jays are picking early, have a weak system, and finished 5th last year. The pick matters more to them than most other teams (or should)."

Yet if you grade what teams do with their picks the Guardians lower draft pick slots will be far more valuable than the Jays. Makes it relative to me.

There's an urgency to normalize and generalize things from draft pick value to a player value etc but it's all relative.

Despite being on the banner of this site, Biggio wasn't never more than an utility player.
They still have Bo and Guerrero and this will be the last shot with both of them.
There's always time for tanking later.

Most good teams only have a handful of guys who came through their farm on their roster.
That's true of the Dodgers who just won the World Series.
Their high ranked prospects are just not very good: Smith, Lux, Pages, Outman.
AA's 2015 team was built on EE, Bautista, Donaldson, Martin.
And it took him 5 years to built that team.
AA wasted great years of EE and Bautista trying to build a farm system that was never good.
What that team really needed was a higher payroll to patch a few gaping hole. 

Santander is a switch hitter which  is very nice.
Torres is really a lefty masher. He's an average bat against right handed pitching.

Everybody wants pitching. The Jays needed to add pitching to get Berrios and Chapman.
The one arm they got back was for Kikuchi.
I don't see them trading position players for arms. Trades for pitchers would have pitching prospects going the other way.
I'd rather have them sit on guys like Tiedemann and Rojas.

per mlbtraderumors (also - anyone know where greenfrog and ugly have gone? Missing their input:

"Phillies owner John Middleton opined today that the bidding may come down to the Yankees and Mets. “I’m afraid Juan Soto wants to be in New York, and I don’t mind being a stalking horse,” Middleton told Conor Smith of the Philadelphia Inquirer. “At some point, if [president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski] and I get that feeling, we’ll probably say, ‘You know what, we’re not going to win this’ because we’ve both been the stalking horse before. And if I were an agent, I would do it too. It’s perfectly good strategy. I mean, it’s smart. But at the end of the day, I just think he likes New York.“

That certainly is possible that Soto loves NYC. If so I really hope he goes to the Mets. It would explain why the Jays are now chasing starting pitching too and looking at other possible routes to get more offense (such as Torres which I disagree with, but can see why). If Soto goes to NY and the Jays get Fried instead it wouldn't be the worst thing. That'd potentially free up Bassitt to be traded this winter for offense from a contender that needs starting pitching. Hmm... LAD have a 3B in Max Muncy who'd be damn nice in a Jays uniform - missed a chunk of 2024 but had a 141 OPS and 15 HR in 73 games (925 OPS after he came back in August). They are grossly short on dependable arms as they showed in the playoffs so someone like Bassitt, Berrios or Gausman could be a great fit for them. Muncy is signed cheap for 2025 and a cheap team option for 2026. If the Jays can sign Fried that'd work nicely. Of course, the Dodgers could sign him too instead but might be hitting some budget limits (even they aren't unlimited). Worth a thought I figured.

Just read on MLBTR that the Giants are planning to scale back payroll. That is a big bomb to the players in free agency as they normally are among the teams chasing the big guys.

I just don't see a path to winning if this offseason is a floor-raiser, and signing Torres, for example, would be just that. 

We finished last in the division, by 6 games.  The only real internal improvement is going to come from a Bo bounceback or from prospects.  We have more than enough IF depth to plan for platoons at third and second, and I think the ceiling of that plan is higher than with a Torres or two.  This doesn't need to be something silly like Horwitz at 2nd, obviously a temporary move at the time to get him to the bigs.  We have older AAA prospects, and we can play em or give them away like Otto Lopez, in order to keep a roster spot open for more Vogelbachs. 

Sure, spend your money on top players who raise the ceiling like Soto, but unless we get a super lucky 'Clemens signs in Toronto' windfall, focus on high-risk/reward moves - guys coming off injuries (Shane Bieber, sure!), international players like Yariel Rodriguez, top Japanese FAs - and Yimi Garcia type relievers who provide floor for the pen - the one spot on the team that a)  actually needs a higher floor and b)  can be improved without blowing the bank.  I'm all for building a pen on the cheap, and we have sucked at that for a while now, but you need some floor, even there.  They can't all be prospects and waiver claims. 

If there are relationships that can be leveraged like Kikuchi, bring him back.  If the best move for improving the pen is also improving the starting rotation, follow the value and do it. 

We have to be looking for upside and be willing to get stuck with sunk costs.  Play the middle of the market again and even with a Bo bounceback, what are we playing for?  Third place in the division and the last wildcard?   I'd rather be out of it at the deadline and ready to trade Bo and the rest of the dealable vets than in no-man's land.  Of course, if we hit a few homers on comeback players or lesser known international types and are still in it, keep Bo and let him and Vlad take a final run at playoff winning.

Regardless, resign Vlad.  Face of the franchise and all that.  Elite player, wants to be here, still young enough to be elite for our next true winning team. 

Worst case scenario I see is signing several mid-tier Torreses, winning zero playoff games and Vlad walking.   

Best case, a risk-averse FO takes actual creative risks, Bo bounces back and we win games in the postseason.

Otto Lopez is a utility infielder. Maybe he became an elite defender or something but I loathe this idea that you need to hang on to every single player just in case they make a leap. Lopez had a 65 WRC+ in AAA. He was released by the Giants. Come on. Also, Torres isn't a low upside signing at all. He had 3.6 WAR in 2023. He's a risky upside signing because he has varied so much between great seasons and poor ones.

Every FA other than Soto is “playing the middle of the market”, though. When looking at the field of non-Soto free agents, there’s a strong case that Torres is just as likely if not more likely to put up a 3 WAR in 2025 as Santander, Teoscar, O’Neill, and so on. He’s also 27 going on 28, so he’s a few years younger than many of free agents that the Jays could be looking at. It’s not that he’s a great player that’s going to push the Jays to a post season berth, it’s that from a value and performance standpoint, there’s a chance he could be a better investment than the alternatives available on the market.

Generally I do agree that the Jays should focus on raising the ceiling of the roster. It’s why I think if they trade for a position of need it should be for a player like Luis Robert who has a lot of volatility but is the closest thing to acquiring a player on Vlad/Bo’s level as they can realistically pull off. Of course he has to be available and the trade cost has to make sense but I’d have zero issues with that approach. The free agent market doesn’t really have that sort of player on the position player side. The only one who could be semi interesting is Profar if you believe his 2024 season was a breakout and not a one year blip, and teams won’t pay him like a 4 WAR player because of his track record, so you’d have to feel lucky that he’s that type of player moving forward.

Every MLB team will want him, but he'd sure look good in Blue Jays Blue: Roki Sasaki Posted Probably to the Dodgers. Sign Kikuchi again, if that helps, and talk to Gausman about being a relief ace?

Spend the money on pitching imo.

From what I've read and understand, Sasaki is under age 25 and is classified as a minor league free agent which means he can't be paid more than 7 figures. Conveniently, the Dodgers have the most money left in their international player pool at over 2.2 million, probably because they had a good idea that he'd be posted and want to sign with them.

Baltimore has over 2 million left in their pool, and the only other teams with over a million are the Yankees and the Giants. The signing period for international players ends the middle of December and a new period starts the middle of January.

I'd do the mandatory talk with Sasaki's agents, but I'd be 99% certain he is going to the Dodgers. For his first contract he is limited to the ML minimum and limits for IFA. Here is a chart showing IFA cash left. Go figure, the Dodgers have the most cash right now. Jays are at $775k vs Dodgers $3.44 mil. Good news is Yankees have overspent as have the Padres so they are 100% out. You can go 75% over cap if you trade for the space from other teams. Can't find the penalties for going over, but given how MLB acted when Houston and Boston broke assorted rules a few years back (loss of players, suspensions) I'd think it isn't worth it.

Given all of that, no way on earth I see Sasaki coming here, in fact no way I see him going anywhere but Dodgerland.

Glevin, I loathe that idea too.  Good thing I don't actually think you need to hang on to every single player.  It was a choice between Lopez and Vogelbach, and it turned out poorly. 

No chance Lopez gets as much playing time if he sticks with us, so it may be immaterial.  People were also saying that Ernie and Lukes were fungible, and they turned out to provide real value.  You don't keep every one of these guys - you keep enough, with enough versatility, that you can work out your best lineups without committing to a mid-tier guy like Torres - who may have more upside than I think - he was just a guy who came up in the thread. 

If the org thinks that Santander's huge year is his new normal, or Profar, or Torres can overperform, great.  Make a bet. But to me, interest in Torres doesn't represent a value play, it represents a floor-raiser.  Don't sign these guys to fill all the spots.  SK is right, there is a dearth of impact position players. 

We can mix and match Barger, Clement, Wagner and Jiminez at 3b at second and third, leaving a spot for Orelvis to force his way in, or Kasevich.  If the best you get out of that plan is a couple of Lopez-like seasons, fine, upgrade mid-season if in the race.  If you want a bat, get a corner OF.
The advantage of older prospects with options is flexibility.  We built a flexible roster.  Now we need to lean into that.  Teams do this all the time with their pens. 

I know I'm in the minority on this one - I think it much more likely that Jiminez / Clement etc get dealt for relief help, or in a package for a volatile guy like Robert.
I just see more concerns, that are more easily addressed, on the pitching staff.   

"Regardless, resign Vlad. Face of the franchise and all that. Elite player, wants to be here, still young enough to be elite for our next true winning team."

The consensus has shifted to the belief that the Jays can't sign Vlad because he's determined to go to market or in the best case - wait for Soto to sign and get as close to an over pay as he can to avoid free agency.

If you look at next year's free agency there is Vlad and Bo and a big cliff afterwards. It's clear to me now that these two players are controlling the decision and are in no rush to sign with the Jays. I believe Vlad won't sign unless given a very good deal way above Devers and no more than 10% below Soto's upcoming deal. The notion of 30 million would net you Vlad is not accurate at all in my opinion. Perhaps last year. Not anymore. Bo likely wants out of Toronto unless they sign Vlad first and then offer him 25-30 million per season.

So, in my humble opinion, if you're Shapiro you probably don't have a choice to re-sign Bo until Vlad is coming back first. If Soto gets 45 million per year then Vlad will want 40 million. If Soto gets 50 then Vlad will want 40/year over a longer term. I don't see how Vlad signs for less than 40 unless he offers something like 45 or more per year now to overpay.

IMHO we are looking at minimum 70 million/year for Vlad and Bo and that's with both willing to forego the upside of bigger deals or similar deals at other destinations that may be more appealing for them.

nice analysis dalimon, I don't follow markets closely so maybe I overstate Vlad's desire to be here.  I'm sure there is a price point too high for Vladdy, but we can most likely afford him.  Bo, that's another story.  I have no interest in resigning him unless they win something this year, and it would be a stretch even then. 

Just read Gregor Chisholm's article in the paper - I like actually reading a newspaper enough to read Chisholm if it's on paper - and his ideal off season of Tyler O'Neill, Joc Pederson and Ha-Seong Kim, Yarbrough, Garcia and Carson Kelly, with prospects dealt for bullpen help, is kind of my worst-case scenario. 

Heck, I'd rather take bad contracts on for young bullpen arms over spending 24 million for two years of Joc Pederson. 

I just reject the oft-repeated 'two or three impact bats' thing. 

Glevin, I loathe that idea too. Good thing I don't actually think you need to hang on to every single player. It was a choice between Lopez and Vogelbach, and it turned out poorly. "

That's just not true. Lopez was utility IF and Vogelbach was VS RHP DH. If any player took Lopez' job, it was Clement. They weren't connected Lopez was traded in February before spring training started because he was last man on the 40. They got rid of him because they had like 5 2B ahead of him in the depth chart.

Adrian Pinto with a 3 run bomb in AFL fall stars game

Glevin, my problem is rostering Vogelbach. I would’ve kept Clement and Lopez. my whole post is about roster flexibility. I called the Lopez move immaterial. Vogelbach was a predictable floor raising move. Every NRI we give ends up a wasted spot.

Did Lopez cost you money in a bet or something?

Talent over fit. Ceiling over floor. Optionable rookies over guaranteed roster spots. Lopez immaterial.

I agree with the Vogelbach move making zero sense at the time and never did work in any way - he hit just 243/349/541 in spring - decent but not 'WOW', especially factoring in he is a pure DH. I'm sure we could all come up with half a dozen guys who deserved a shot more - Lukes (450/500/600 over 40 PA and could play CF), Horwitz (bad spring at 125/255/150 but once he got a shot wow did he go) were the first 2 to come to mind. Yeah, it was a limited role so Lukes was ideal for it - he could pinch run, play OF, as well as hit if given the chance and is at an age where wasting him on the bench isn't an issue. That was $2 million thrown away for nothing. To make it even weirder - he NEVER had an 800 OPS in the majors over a full season (peak of 793 in '22, next best is a 780 in '19, rest sub 750). I really don't get how a pure DH who hit like that got into over 600 ML games. Just 3 of 9 seasons in positive WAR territory, never getting to 2 WAR in a season.

For this year the 'default' should be (pre trades/FA)
C: Kirk/Heineman; 1B: Horwitz; 2B: Wagner/Jimenez; 3B: Vlad; SS: Bo; LF: Lukes/Schneider; CF: Varsho; RF: Springer; DH: rotation; Bench: Clement & ??? (ML minimum guy).

Goal has to be to find a DH/LF to fill in the rest while waiting for Roden, Loperfido, Orelvis Martinez, and/or Clase to be ready. Vlad could at anytime be moved back to 1B with Horwitz moved to DH, Clement to 3B with Barger pushing his way up (if he pounds AAA). Really, with the current budget hard to see the Jays doing much more on offense no matter how much we want more. Adding 2 big bats would be too expensive most likely. I see 2B/LF as platoons unless someone is added. DH seeing tons of Vlad, Bo, and Springer - thus giving Clement more time in the field (he can cover anything well).

This spring shouldn't be as up in the air with spring invites as last year. LF if no one is added will be a heck of a battle for LH slot between Lukes, Roden, Loperfido, and Clase (as a switch hitter he could be considered for either half of a platoon or given it outright). Lukes as a bench guy isn't a bad idea. Jimenez, Heineman are both out of options. Orelvis and Barger are on their final options (both will use them in '25).

Rotation set with Gausman, Berrios, Bassitt, Francis, Rodriguez with Manoah in the mix once healthy (after a few rehab starts)
Pen...oh boy. Romano if healthy, Green, Swanson, Little seem safe bets. After that..? No options left for Pop, Danner, and Nance. Burr has 1 left, Little 2. Bloss & Macko will be in AAA stretched out in case someone goes down in the rotation. Final options for Tate and Robertson, plus 2 options each for 40 man guys like Eisert, de Geus, Easton Lucas, and Michael Petersen - all more likely to be cut than to make the team. Now this is where non-roster invitees will be a factor. Even if the Jays sign 2 top arms they'll still need 2 more arms. Danner I could see making it, Burr as well. Neither gets me excited. More likely we'll see 5 or 6 AAAA arms in camp fighting it out with those guys for the final slots. One never knows what to expect though when it comes to the pen. So much variability, so much randomness.

Keeping Vogelbach made a ton of sense at the time. Jays needed LH power and his WRC+ against RHP was 118 the year before and 148 the year before that. Turner got off to a great start but was never great against RHP so a sort of platoon made sense. Jays had IKF, Biggio, Schneider, and Clement who covered 2B with Jimenez also close to major league ready. Even if Vogelbach hadn't been signed, it wasn't going to be Lopez making the team. Probably Lukes or Horwitz if he had a better spring. Or maybe someone else but definitely not Lopez.

I don't know how important ST is regarding making the team. We know that Barger has power. In ST the can crush HRs against good SPs whose goal is to get their pitches up to their standard. So meatballs and hangers will be crushed by Barger. More importantly he needs to prove that his D is good enough. So fielding and accurate throws from 3B and in RF/LF he needs to prove he can catch the ball, take good routes to the ball and throw accurately.

The same for every other prospect. Or players like Loperfido, Wagner, D Schneider etc...

I expect that the evaluators will have a tough job evaluating everyone.

Gosuke Katoh has joined the front office of the only MLB team he has played for, the Blue Jays.
I remember cheering for him to get his first hit.
He was a 27 year old rookie that the Jays picked off waivers from the Mets.He went 1 for 7 with a double.

I guess it was the other way around. He signed as a minor free agent, made the team and got waived to the Mets.

Always glad to see a guy who fought hard to make the majors then got barely a shot, come back in some form. His time in the minors plus the fight for that tiny bit of ML time, plus his Japanese league experience at the end should make him very valuable for a different POV than most have, with a view on every aspect of playing outside of what stars do. I remember thinking he'd be a good backup in '22 but the Jays only got him 11 PA in 8 games in a month before dumping him. The year before he hit 306/388/474 in AAA and that spring ('22) he hit 333/370/542. Guess he was in the Vogelbach spot - get a few PA here and there, but unlike V he had speed and defense so was used as a pinch runner and at 1B/2B.

Seems multiple sites are now saying the Jays have a max of $25 mil to spend which is basically fix the pen and that's it. That ain't going to do much. Then we're counting a LOT on Bo getting back to pre-24 status, Vlad staying at '24 level, and the kids developing and not regressing like Schneider did. It could work - see roster I listed above - but I'd feel a lot better if they sign someone big and add 2 quality arms to the pen.

Regarding payroll I would factor in the following:

1) I believe Shapiro said that payroll would be at 2024 levels. Which means a high payroll.

2) Either go above the luxury tax threshold or stay below. Actual signings will help provide a number to those people who know how to do baseball calculations. I can't because it is very hard for me.

I also get the impression that many Bauxites think the team is lousy. I agree that the 74-88 record makes it clear that the 2024 team was lousy. The 2025 team has not yet been constructed so we don't know how good it is. I expect to have an idea by the beginning of June 2025.

Our farm is considered weak but prospect evaluations don't impress me overall. As prospects Bo, Vlad, Biggio, Kirk, Moreno and Pearson can be looked back upon and more accurately evaluated. Bo, Vlad and Moreno have lived up to expectations or even surpassed them. Kirk overperformed. Biggio and Pearson (high ranked) took forever to prove that they were not good enough.

I think we would all feel better about this team moving forward if things played out differently:

* Cy Young caliber Alek Manoah didn't hit a wall and get injured
* Big investment George Springer now firmly replacement level
* Vlad and Bo walking within the year
* Mixed bag of failed or injured top prospects

These are the four key things that have hampered realistic expectations of what this team can do in the next few years. A few more:

*High payroll for production as it stands
*Old rotation on the decline
*FO with supposed ability to make a winner over a longer period of time currently in year 8 or 9 and looking for a redo

They don't advertise payroll.
It's like going to a car dealership. They'll ask you how much you want to spend, not what car interests you.

Some improvements could come via trade and cost less.

BTW, Clement and Pop are both Super-Two.
Pop would line up for a raise to 1M. Tate figures around 1.9M.
Clement could be getting anything from 1.7M to 2.5M--depending on who you ask.

John Northey, this goes back a few days but you had a chart showing the remaining money for IFA's for each team. The amounts differed from what I saw in an article in The Athletic that referenced a piece on MLB.com called "What is the Signing Process For Roki Sasaki? The remaining amounts in it were quite different from your chart with some teams showing to have more money and some had less. I don't know why there is a discrepancy and which one is actually accurate.

You are right ISLAND BOY. LAD still on top but with less $. Jays dropped from $775,000 to $12,200.

LAD can pay the most. Hope he wins ROY so that they get a draft pick. Then if he gets super 2 status he can get good arb. If he is good enough they can buy out his arb for a nice amount. This as incentive to sign with LAD.

I'd trust the Athletic over the random user site I found. Still, it is all a crapshoot. MLB doesn't advertise where teams are at and the international bonus payments are not as publicized as draft pick ones are. In truth, at times like this it'd be nice to have an international draft instead of the bizarre thing we'll see. I'd be quite shocked if any high end Japanese league player goes to a smaller market regardless of cash due to a desire to play as close to home as possible (IE: west coast) or to maximize marketing potential (NYY). The Jays need to figure out how to sell them on the marketing potential of being on Canada's only ML team vs being in the states where they often are limited to a teams geographic region. Few teams have 40 million potential fans. I'd use Kikuchi and other former Jays as leverage - get him to call them, encourage it as he'd probably do it anyways. Show that the Jays aren't afraid of what former players have to say. Even encourage him to ask Ohtani about why he debated the Jays before going to LA. He is going to talk to Ohanti anyways. Point out the top of the line training facilities, how the Jays have the potential to put him into the rotation right away with other high level pitchers but with the chance he'll be the #1 within a year or two vs LA where he'd never be the #1 Japanese pitcher, let alone the #1 pitcher or #1 player on the team. Ego is big for guys at that level. Use it.

All that said, I can't see him coming. Odds are he wants a title and to be as famous as possible and LAD would be the ideal place most likely for that. Can't imagine any player from Japan going to the Angels right now. Giants and Mariners could possibly sell him on them. SD too (not as easily imo, but potentially). I'd say Dodgers #1, Giants #2 for Sasaki. He'll probably not go up until the new year so to have more cash available from teams to compete for him. But even thought the Jays will have more in the new year it probably wouldn't be enough and if I was them I'd keep focus on other IFA's who might be available due to the uncertainty this is causing.

Just an update on the AFL if anyone wants to discuss.

Pinto is playing a lot and playing well at 2B. Good O tools. Don't know his D.

P Williams playing well & a lot. 1B/DH with a lot of power. Don't know his D.

TJ Brock & R Jennings doing well.

All 4 should start in NH next year.

NEW NEWS:

Juan Soto has a meeting scheduled with the Toronto Blue Jays first, followed by NYY, NYM and Boston. Source: Jeff Passan

Brock and Jennings felt like good relief depth going into the AFL, so nice to see them pitching well. 

Pinto just continues to hit when he's not injured.  He needs protecting on the 40 man this offseason, no?  He's never been out of A ball but he's doing his best to get added.

"Juan Soto has a meeting scheduled with the Toronto Blue Jays"

I really hope this does not become a distraction for the organization again. Boras is going to drag it out while other opportunities go by the wayside.

I'd like to think that enough guys have played the chicken game into the spring and had bad years as a result that someone like Soto would just tell Boros to get it done by Christmas so he can enjoy the rest of his offseason. Soto is in a position to more or less demand his team make a good contending attempt...not exactly helpful to wait to see who has room for a corner outfielder later.

Toronto keeps getting these meetings, at some point they will get the player because the even larger (or more preferred location) offer just doesn't materialize.

I'm conflicted. It's franchise altering if they can get it done.

I completely believe that Boras is using the Jays and the Jays are happy to be used - No chance Soto signs with the Jays but management can say they came close - Also I don't expect Soto to sign before Christmas.

"I completely believe that Boras is using the Jays and the Jays are happy to be used - No chance Soto signs with the Jays but management can say they came close - Also I don't expect Soto to sign before Christmas."

Probably a 99% likelihood that you would have said the exact same thing about Ryu or Springer as top of market additions at the time.

Basically - if they can sign Soto great, if he doesn't and they just leverage him more cash from the Yankees, also great as that puts their payroll into more of a bind than it otherwise would've been. Last winter was different - there were 2 'big guns' in Ohtani and Soto, the Jays waited on Ohtani until it was too late to get Soto, this winter it is basically Soto and that is it for 'wow' guys. Lots of 'nice to have' (Santander, Teoscar, Adames, Bregman, Walker, Alonso) but no one else in Soto territory. So going all out on Soto makes a ton of sense and if you lose out, no worries - some of the rest of the group will be hanging around if you want any of them.

Btw, last winter Teoscar didn't look as good - coming off an age 30 106 wRC+ season vs this year coming off a 134. I still think a 3 year deal would be a mistake with him though, especially with a QO mixed in.

"Probably a 99% likelihood that you would have said the exact same thing about Ryu or Springer as top of market additions at the time."

Ryu was not top of the market in 2020. There was Cole $324M, Rendon $245 M (that was bad), Strasburg $245M (even worse 30 IP), Wheeler $118 M. Ryu was considered to come with significant injury risk. The Jays paid more than most were predicting.

Springer was top of the market, but the Jays arguably gave an extra year to get him. That last year is going to hurt.

I dont think the Jays are going to be top of the market for Soto. At best they might equal some other team's bid, which means likely he aint coming.

The Jays absolutely did not miss Soto because they were waiting on Ohtani. That assumes the Jays had the requisite prospect package to match what the Yankees gave up. They didn’t. We have people on here lamenting that the Jays system is so terrible that they don’t want to forfeit a pick to sign an impact player. That kind of system isn’t one that was trading for Soto last year.

This place has become very weird. I feel like a large chunk of the contributors would prefer to go back to 2004 so we can get excited about Cory Koskie. I don’t get it. For years we lamented how the team was never in on the best players in the game, and now that we are people are still complaining.

Marc Tramuta is the Jays new director of amateur scouting, responsible for the draft.

Tramuta had a similar role with the Mets for six years. He joined the Jays front office last year.

This place has become very weird. I feel like a large chunk of the contributors would prefer to go back to 2004 so we can get excited about Cory Koskie. I don’t get it. For years we lamented how the team was never in on the best players in the game, and now that we are people are still complaining."

Yeah. I don't get it. We are in on Soto, we were in on Ohtani, we signed Springer and Gausman. Jays aren't going to get most of the top names but they are (legitimately) trying for them and that's great.

Jays were never going to trade for Soto last year. Padres wanted a lot of pitching including major league ready pitching and a top pitching prospect. Who could the Jays have replaced Michael King with? What cheap major league ready pitching could jays have added to the deal? The Jays didn't have the pieces to get him.

For top free agents lets go to a neutral site - MLBTR. Checking the top one signed each year by the Jays and what they predicted vs what they signed for.

• 2019/20: Ryu #9 3/$54 mil, signed for 4/$80 mil 5.1 WAR
• 2020/21: Springer #3 5/$125 mil, signed for 6/$150 mil 9.6 WAR + 2 more years
• 2021/22: Gausman #5 6/$138 mil, signed for 5/$110 mil 7.2 WAR + 2 more years
• 2022/23: Bassitt #13 3/$60 mil, signed for 3/$63 mil 2.4 WAR + 1 more year
• 2023/24: Yariel Rodriguez #28 4/$32 mil, signed 4/$32 mil -0.1 WAR + 3 more years + Option year ($10 mil if Jays pick it up, $6 mil if he does)

Clearly in 19/20 and 20/21 the Jays needed to outdo the expected market to get who they wanted. But since they've paid damn close to the market or in Gausman's case a touch less. Ryu, Springer, and Gausman were all top 10 free agents with Springer the #3 and Gausman #5 - that ain't bottom feeding.

#1's were not always the best...

• 19/20: Gerrit Cole 8/$256, 9/$324 - 13.4 WAR over 5 years so far.
• 20/21: Trevor Bauer 4/$128 mil 3/$102 mil - Ugh. What a disaster that was.
• 21/22: Carlos Correa 10/$320 mil 3/$105.3 due to injury concerns, later signed for 6/$200 mil covering 7 years total $235 mil combined - 10.4 WAR total over 3 years so far with big injury concerns
• 22/23: Aaron Judge 8/$332 mil, 9/$360 mil 4.5 WAR year one, 10.8 year two. Wow.
• 23/24: Shohei Ohtani 12/$528 mil, 10/$700 mil or $437,830,563 factoring in deferred money, over 9 WAR and a WS title year one.

So the Jays did fairly well I'd say. Cole has been solid but not 'WOW', Bauer = disaster, Correa might still be a disaster thanks to the 2nd deal, Judge & Ohtani off to damn good starts.

"This place has become very weird. I feel like a large chunk of the contributors would prefer to go back to 2004 so we can get excited about Cory Koskie. I don’t get it. For years we lamented how the team was never in on the best players in the game, and now that we are people are still complaining."

Could not agree more.

FYI, Travis d'Arnaud is off the table as a backup catcher - $12 mil for 2 years (Angels). Given that he seems to average around a WAR a year (5.1 the past 5 years), it might make sense, but I fully get why the Jays didn't bother. Better to save cash for bigger fish. When you want to win you need the big guns and save cash by using AAAA guys and prospects as backups. If cash is tight I'd rather they sign an all-star level guy and cross fingers on prospects than sign 2 or 3 meh guys like last winter.

A WAR a year is a positive way of looking at it.
He's had one excellent year and he was good last year. The other 3 years he didn't produce much.
He gets around 1 WAR when he plays in around 100 games. That should go down considerably.
They are paying 12M for his year 36 and 37 and catchers are not known for aging well.
They might have wanted a vet behind the plate to help the pitching.

Regarding Springer, keep in mind that was the off-season directly after the pandemic shortened 60 game season where there was no gate revenue. Only a handful of teams were spending money that winter (and even handful might be rounding up). Maybe they still would have signed Springer under normal circumstances but I would imagine he would have had more options in that scenario.

Either way, I agree that the pessimism regarding this front office when it comes to free agents and winter action in general is strange. They don’t succeed in signing the 1% free agents (Ohtani, etc) but they still spend significantly. Only last winter was a deviation from that approach, maybe due to lack of real options other than Ohtani. I don’t think they end up with Soto but if they are legitimately going to spend this winter (and not just $20M like Davidi thinks) then I think they end up with a reasonably big FA. More likely on the pitching side (someone like Fried).

As far as the Soto trade, the Padres wanting pitching that would help them in 2025. The Jays best chips were Manoah coming off a horrendous season and Tiedemann who threw 44 innings in 2023. King alone was worth more than both of them. No chance the Jays were going to get Soto in a trade. It wasn’t a fit for what the Padres were looking for.

Regarding Springer, the Mets wanted him because they had 3 left handed batters in the outfield and they had no payroll limit.

The front office has been good at spending and getting their money's worth.
It's the players on the field who have not been good at meeting their projections.

For Soto, the Jays could have offered Gausman or Berrios while sending money to pay for their salary.
Not sure that makes them a more competitive team.

Scott Mitchell is reporting that Matt Hague is leaving to take the hitting coach job with the Pirates. This seems like a big loss to me, when the kids were hitting well in the back end of the season they seemed to be working and talking with Hague a lot.

I was expecting the Jays to promote Hague to the hitting coach job - Seems like a big loss - do the Jays have a hitting coach?

Big, big blow in losing Hague. He was magic at AAA as the hitting coach... and likely would have had a much bigger impact in 2024 with fewer hands in the pot.

" They might have wanted a vet (D'Arnaud) behind the plate to help the pitching."

I read that the Angels wanted D'Arnaud so he could mentor and spell their young catcher, Logan O'Hoppe. O'Hoppe, aged 24, is one of the best young catchers in the game and appeared in 136 games for the Angels last year which is a lot of wear and tear at that position.

Yeah. Losing Hague sucks.

I assume that when the Jays hired David Pumpkins, I mean Popkins, from the Twins to be the new hitting coach, Hague was more interested in looking around.

It's better to be a coach than an assistant, no doubt.
This carries more challenge and more risk since he's going to be working with hitters he doesn't know.
Best of luck Matt.

Vlad won his second silver slugger award.
Soto won his fifth. Judge won his 4th.
Santander is the only winner in Baltimore.
Boston and Tampa got zilch.

The Yankees won the team award.
The Jays won the team gold glove award.

I find the comments that some posters are pining for 2004, just because they do not believe that the Jays were legitimate contenders for Ohtani and are legitimate contenders for Soto, odd. I am not pining for 2004. I have repeatedly said that one of the big kudos Shapiro deserves is getting a substantially expanded payroll. What I don't think they deserve credit for is purported interest in Ohtani and Soto. I don't know if they made a massive financial offer to Ohtani or not. I'm skeptical but maybe they did. What I do know is that nobody, including Ohtani, ever gave any indication that Ohtani would sign anywhere other than in LA. Except, surprise surprise, 2-3 weeks before Ohtani signed there were "leaks" about Ohtani considering the Jays. I happen to believe that those leaks were mutually beneficial to Ohtani/his agent and the Jays. I perceive the same charade about to play out with Soto. Further, any offseason plan that has as its cornerstone "Signing Ohtani" or "Signing Soto" isn't really a plan because it has no reasonable basis for success. None of the above is to suggest that the Jays haven't been big FA players or won't be now and in the future. Rogers has demonstrated an ability to spend in free agency. There are big money decisions to be made with Vladdy and in free agency and those are all in play from my perspective.

I agree with Nigel. His comment was well worded and explained. Ohtani did not confirm the Jays interest. Verlander however was cleat that he considered the Jays offer. Ryu, Springer, Gausman and Bassitt are legitimate expensive FA signings. They were willing to spend over the luxury tax threshold to generate a good revenue in 2023 and 2024. We got the last WC in 2023 while Seattle & NYY got nothing. Seattle had a better run differential than the Jays. So we got lucky.

I think leaks have more to do with the media than with the teams.
I doubt people buy tickets based on what is printed. It's a fact that there wasn't much available after Othani last year.
The Yankees weren't really happy about trading so many players to get Soto.

Japanese players prefer the west coast.
Latinos from the Caribbean prefer the east coast.
Americans prefer the US.
That's all part of free agency.

Right now, it seems like Soto is possible if Rogers is offering something like 640M for 14 years and nobody else tops that.
 

I happen to believe that those leaks were mutually beneficial to Ohtani/his agent and the Jays.

Was it beneficial to the Jays? Everyone got really excited for a few days, but then it was over, and everyone just got sad and disappointed, particularly given the lack of other significant offseason moves. Unless a lot of people bought tickets & merch on the mere possibility of Ohtani, I'm not sure I see the benefit to pretending you're going to sign a superstar, and then going out to get Justin Turner & Daniel Vogelbach instead.

And there'd be even less benefit to trying the charade a second time with Soto, who won't stir up nearly the same media attention.

And if it's that obvious a ploy, would the leaks even help Ohtani? Surely the Dodgers could have just called his bluff, just as everyone will laugh at Soto's agent this year when he brags about a "serious offer" from Toronto.

Agreed scottt - Soto is purely after the cash. If two teams are pretty much tied in 'best offer' he might go to secondary concerns (location, teammates, etc.) but #1 without any doubt is cash. Jays are one of the few who can compete at the top end of that with the Yankees, Mets, Dodgers. Cubs could but rarely choose to. Rangers have done it but tend to get burned when they do (A-Rod who ate so much of their payroll they went for secondary pieces that blew up in their faces), same with a few other teams. Clubs like Pittsburgh, Tampa, KC, just aren't even considered when big contracts come out which has to suck for their fans, knowing they will never be able to fight for top players in the FA market. Jays have shown they can sign top 5 free agents, but the #1 in an offseason was last done back in 1996/97 with Roger Clemens setting a record for a brief period and then being worth every penny for 2 years (pitchers triple crown twice in a row).

As to fans who think the Jays won't ever sign a top player - guess what? Every year someone does. Those 5 years I mentioned above (2019/20 to last offseason) the #1 player was signed by Yankees, Dodgers, Twins (after Mets & SF pulled out iirc), Yankees, Dodgers. Seems to be a pattern there - Yanks/Dodgers then someone else, so this offseason it is someone else's turn. Could be the Jays. Giants were seen as a threat but they are said to be cutting payroll (now that they have the whole bay area to themselves). Mets will be the ones who might blow everyone out of the water on dollars if they want to, but after the disaster when they did that year one of Cohen's time and then made the playoffs after cutting will he want to?

I think the Jays are serious about Soto just as they were serious about Ohtani - I just don't think the Jays get these type of players unless the Jays have easily the best offer like they did with Springer & Ryu. If the offers are in the same ballpark then I think the Jays will be left holding the bag.

Agree to that sentiment.

The Ohtani hype was absolutely beneficial to the Jays. They got a huge amount of publicity during their season ticket renewal drive (part of). As one small example, my family in Vancouver all bought tickets to the Jays in Seattle on some of that enthusiasm. I don't think that they were unique. Sure, there was disappointment later. But only later. Secondarily, all year I've listened to casual fans and even some on here talk about how the past offseason's "do nothing" was justifiable because Plan A was to sign Ohtani and when that didn't work it was too late to pivot. As for Ohtani, Scott Boras has created an entire career out of creating a false appearance of a market at an exorbitant price point where none existed.

For Soto in addition to cash, who does he want to play with is a big question.

• Yankees: 2025-2028 - Judge, Cole, Stanton, Rodón, all signed, all American by birth, all over 30, all making over $25 mil a year.
• Mets: Lindor, Díaz, Nimmo, Senga signed though 2027 for a lot. Lindor & Nimmo though 2029. Lindor PR, Nimmo US, Diaz PR, Senga Japan. So 2 from Latin America, a slight advantage. Again, all 30+ but a touch younger than the Yankees crew.
• Jays: Well, no one really signed post 2026 outside of Berrios & Rodriguez - unless they sign Vlad who Soto appears to be good friends with (reported that they spend time in the offseason together).

If he wants the best team for titles the Yankees are probably his best bet, if he wants stability and guys from Latin America then the Mets, if he wants a team that he could be the #1 guy on the Jays fit (Judge is the Yankees, Lindor the Mets) sorta (Vlad would be the man if he signs long term). Tons of variables but the #1 is cash. If the Jays outbid everyone else they get him, if they don't then they don't. In a tie I expect the Yankees to win, or the Mets as both are closer to a title than the Jays. But Soto already has a ring from his Washington days so is that his #1 motivation right now? I suspect the HOF is his goal now and setting records. Which place is best for that? Probably NYY as the park is known to help LH hitters. Checking Statcast the best park for LH is Coors (duh) followed by (surprise) Fenway. Yankees are 16th, Jays 21st, Mets 26th. For dingers it is Cincinnati (PF 142 in '24, range of 121-142); NYY (119 '24, 113-164 over the years); Mets (93 '24, 78-116 range); Jays (95 '24, 82-134 over this century). None of those help the Jays I'd say. If a high HR total to get him into the HOF is his goal then the Yankees is where he should go to.

Dang. I was hoping one of those things would help the Jays - park factor, who is signed long term, something. But nope. Based on all the logic the Yankees should hold onto him, or the Mets if the Yankees try to go cheap. It all depends on what he wants. My gut says cash is king and all else is secondary but then you get the tax situation too which doesn't help. Sigh. They better be negotiating with Vlad right now - I suspect Vlad is waiting for Soto to make up his mind and sign first then use that as a guidepost for his own negotiations.

I don't think hitters sign to be in a specific ball park, but playing on turf is never a good thing and the outfield is all turf.
Soto is very theatrical in the box, loves to flip the bat and do complex handshakes, things that are not as popular in Yankees Stadium.
Also, Soto is not very good on the basepath.

The Yankees are the better team but Judge is not a certain thing either.
He's quite older than Vlad and Soto. 
So yeah, it's all about the Benjamins.

The Othani hype lasted a couple of days, if that.
He was on a plane and then he wasn't. 
Fans were deflated after that. The guys they signed didn't excite anyone. 
The pitching started falling apart in spring training.
The best days of the season were in August when they were out of it.

David reported on Dec 5 that the Jays had a good chance on Ohtani. He didn't sign until a month later.

When he officially signed isn’t really relevant. It was announced way before that he was going to Dodgers for $700M. There is a BNS column confirming this on Dec 10th.

Interesting name from Blue Jays Nation - Yoán Moncada for 3B. He is coming off multiple injury filled seasons it seems. 45 PA in '24, last over 500 in '21 (3.7 fWAR, 120 wRC+). He is entering his age 30 season. If healthy he could be a big asset. His value is estimated at under $2 mil so he hardly would break the bank. Could be useful. Depends on how comfortable the Jays are with Vlad at 3B, with Clement as the 'oh crap, Vlad can't handle it' backup choice. Interesting, but not a critical thing. As a switch hitter he could be in a mix/match at 3B easily with Clement too. He used to be a 2B too in '17/18 so he might be able to go there if needed too.

Bottom line - an interesting idea, but unlikely to happen as if I was him I'd be looking for a lot clearly path to everyday play than is here. Plus the Jays with Clement don't really need a $2 mil risk on a guy who might or might not be useful.

Moncada also exited a game today when he was hit by a pitch on the hand, and while there's no break he's probably out for the rest of the Premier 12.

I suggested Moncada previously. Previous #2 rated prospect has a lot of talent. If he can put it together he would be a big boost.

It doesnt seem that they have the money for a big name 3B, and Clement doesnt look the part given his lack of OBP and power. Clement seems like the perfect utility guy. They could get him lots of games subbing in at 3B, and for Bo when his "Donaldson" calves need a rest, and at 2B vs lefties. And if Moncada doesnt work out, Clement is the guy, with some options in AAA.

Bo can DH a lot more. Jimenez and Clement are better defensively, and Bo has injury issues. He may not like it, but he's walking anyway.

3B: Moncada
SS: Bo
2B: Wagner
DH: Horwitz
1B: Vlad

With Jimenez and Clement on the bench. There are lots of mix and match options there to keep the analytics coaches happy.

Barger, Orelvis and Kasevich in AAA

That seems fine to me.

Spend the money in LF and on pitching

I'd be fine with Moncada. Enough upside to justify giving a shot, and price should be low enough to where it would barely be considered a risk. I think injuries are a bigger concern for him than talent, as he was still hitting the ball reasonably hard in his last full season. Maybe there's still some potential there. If it fails, it fails, but I prefer this option to starting Clement or signing Bregman.

So we have some posters okay with Moncada. Meh. Just fancier tire-kicking to me. Ownership should do this team and fanbase justice with at least one if not two bonafide starter signings and then fill other holes. Anything less than that after the past two years of off season futility warrants further decline in the crowds and standings.

I'd say about the only positive move they've made between the 2022 off season and the period just before this trade deadline was signing Chris Bassitt which is quickly offset by the other lackadaisical moves.

I can't imagine Moncada will cost more than a couple of million on a one year deal. He won't stop the Jays from adding more bats or pitching. The third base options in free agency are very limited, and the Jays don't have the assets to get big time players in trades (nor can they afford to move top prospects given the state of the farm system). Buy low on Moncada hoping for a bounce back, and allocate more available money to LF, the rotation, and so on.

The Angels just DFA Matt Thaiss, a LH hitting catcher.

Is 29 and former 1st round pick. Was supposed to be able to hit, and has in the minors, but has not in the majors 208/313/342

He hit 204/323/299 last year with LAA but hit 210/352/319 vs RHP. He is terrible vs LHP. So an okay platoon partner for Kirk (with Kirk obviously playing a lot more).

Dont know about his D, but is cheap, projected to make $1.3 M.

Maybe an option for the backup C. Seems a better alternative than Heineman, who will cost about the same.

The Rays are going to play the 2025 season at the Yankees minor ballpark in Tampa.
That's what I expected.
The House of Horror is going to be fixed in time for the 2026 season.

It's going to be like spring training but they will probably have lots of rained out games.

No interest in Moncada because he just isn't any good. He had one great year 6 years ago and one very good one 4 years ago and aside from that, he hasn't had a single season of more than 1.1 WAR. I see a potential mediocre player with injury problems. Is he likely to be better than Clement? (no, he isn't)

Baseball prospects has their top-10 prospects. Half were brought in last season in draft/trades. Nimmala, Yesavage, Bloss, Wagner, Tiedemann, Orelvis, Kasevich, Rojas, Stephen, King.

Not sure he's actually an upgrade.
He hit in the PCL. He's younger and hits left. There's always that.
Seems good at blocking but poor at catching runners and framing.
Pop time is in the 17 percentile and sprint speed at the 5th.

Matt Thaiss looks like a downgrade to me - 6 seasons in the majors with between 3 and 95 games per year. 0.4 is his best fWAR, then a 0, then 4 times a -0.2. wRC+ never over 86. Projected at a 88 wRC+ and 0 fWAR over 3 G 13 PA.

Tyler Heineman 5 seasons in the bigs (missed 2021) with between 5 and 62 games each year. best wRC+ was a 130 in 12 PA in '19, then a 107 in 47 PA in '23. Positive WAR every year, peaking at 0.7 in '22. Projected at 76 wRC+ and 0.7 fWAR over 49 games/190 PA roughly.

So yeah, I'd go with Heineman given the choice between these 2. Remember, Heineman is a switch hitter so Thaiss being a LH hitter isn't a big deal when debating the 2 of them. Neither is great by any stretch and I'd hope the Jays get a couple of good AAAA guys in Buffalo to be around if needed.

Glad the Ray's are staying in Tampa and not going to Dunedin. It'll be interesting to see if anyone's stats go silly there.
Didn't want the Jays rehab facilities used by the Ray's.

Sharing is caring, John.

I think the AFL ended. Today is a playoff game Rafters VS Scorpions (our team) with the winner playing in the championship game against the Saguaros tomorrow.

I do hope the Jays add Lazaro Estrada to the 40-man and protect him from the Rule 5. Some of the best strikeout numbers in the AFL and held batters to a .167 average in a hitters league. His stuff rates out very well and could be a solid 2-3 inning MLB reliever, which the Jays have lacked.

I'm skeptical that they will... but barring a major injury, he'll pitch in the majors for someone - quite possibly in 2025.

Andrew Bash, another potential multi-inning reliever, is another lesser known arm that I'd protect. Like Estrada, he's better than some of the fringe reliever arms the Jays picked up off waivers. But the Jays also have a bit of shiny new toy syndrome when it comes to relievers... to the detriment of homegrown players.

No one else is worth protecting other than OF Victor Arias who is probably safe with no experience above A-ball.

Lazaro Estrada is interesting - 10.9 K/9 vs 2.6 BB/9 in his minor league career (331 2/3 IP over 6 seasons), 22 starts last year (just 98 IP, so 4.47 IP per start). I see potential there for sure, but entering his age 26 season it is make it or break it time for him. I'd protect him and see if he can handle being in the ML pen - he has all 3 options I'd assume so for ages 26/27/28 he could be bounced up and down if he isn't fully set and just an 8/9 guy in the pen. There is value there.

Bash is a step down from Estrada - 7.9 K/9 lifetime (poor by todays standards) vs 3.9 BB/9, nothing jumps out at me looking at his numbers so I'd not protect him and if lost, so be it.

It’s interesting talking about Rule 5 protection, even if in the grand scheme of things it doesn’t matter.

Victor Arias and Adrian Pinto are players on the, you’d-be-annoyed-if-someone-picked-them-but-probably-nobody-will category. Remember Gabriel Martinez and his fine year? The jays gambled by not protecting him and came out with a whiff of roses. On the other hand, they protected Jiminez and that may well have been wise.

Lazaro Estrada had a 2.5 SO/W ratio in 2024 and a minor league ratio of over 4. With solid walk rates as well, he’s good. I'll wager a shiny groat that he'll be protected.

What is the appeal of Andrew Bash? I don’t know if he throws hard, but, to agree with John Northey, the results seem underwhelming.

I’d at least think about protecting Eric Pardinho or Trenton Wallace. They both walk too many (about 4 per 9) which is a big red flag, but still keep their SO/W ratio at about 2.5. (For contrast, Bash is at about 2 both for 2024 and his career). Eric Pardinho is now a reliever but there’s a chance he’s finally put it all together. Wallace doesn’t throw all that hard but, walks aside, has been good. The reason I’d consider protecting them is that both players are looking at a make or break year. Unlike a Pinto or an Arias you aren’t locking up a roster spot for years. If they look bad in the early going, that's game over, man; drop ‘em like a rock. I'll wager another groat on Pardinho at least.

Yeah Dr B - the rule 5 draft gets 100x more attention than it probably deserves, but I figure that is largely a Jays fan thing. We saw the core of the first great team here in '85 come in part from the Rule 5 draft (George Bell, Willie Upshaw, Jim Acker, plus backups Lou Thornton, Manny Lee, and Kelly Gruber - Lee & Gruber of course becoming core members of the '92 WS team). Given that it makes sense us fans think 'gee, this could be big', especially if you mix in that Gillick said he nearly took Wade Boggs through it - had debated but decided not to at the last minute iirc (forget where this was reported).

Also of note is the Jays briefly lost Romano throught it, but got lucky and the Rangers returned him (White Sox took him, sold him to Texas on Dec 13 2018, then Rangers returned him March 24 2019).

Pardinho recently became a free agent.

Thanks, Ducey. I guess they can still sign him as free agent. But I also guess I lose my groat.

Jays adding David Bell to front office in a player development role similar to one Cherington had. (VP baseball Ops and Assistant Gm.)

The big question has to be can the Jays land anything of note this winter, followed by either (if they land one) can they win, or (if they don't) is it time to rebuild? If they can't sign anyone or trade for anyone of note by spring and fail to sign Vlad long term do they then trade Vlad for prospects and plan for 2026 and beyond? If they succeed and get someone (be it Soto, Fried, a solid bat or two, a couple of solid relievers - some combo of these things) do they get the extra cash from Rogers to build more mid-season and can they make the playoffs and succeed?

I'm really hoping some good news comes soon, as they've been sitting on the pot far too much it seems. Lets not have another 2018 type year where the team hems and haws for months then is shocked, shocked I tell you that they are a mess mid-season with their best trading chips hurt or ineffective (Josh Donaldson that year, Marcus Stroman & Aaron Sanchez having bad years while JA Happ had a 'meh' one). If going for it they need to overwhelm Soto and sign him, or force the Mets to go beyond their comfort zone to get him, fail to get Soto and the winter is a LOT tougher (no one else at or near that level available). No killer trade chips to use to get a high end young player. Rumors are Carlos Correa might be available as the Twins might need to slash payroll - a damn good player who has a massive red flag for injury risk (I'm talking flashing red lights - missed all of August and half of July and half of September, but still a 960 OPS in Sept once returned) - cost in prospects would be lower than normal due to that, but still high risk.

If a rebuild then we'd see a lot like we did in the 2nd half - not pretty but can be fun. Still, I saw too much of that from 1994-2014 and in parts of 2017-2019. I'd much rather see them go for it. If they go for it I just hope the few top prospects around stick through it (Wagner, Orelvis, Barger, Bloss, Yesavage, Nimmala, Tiedemann) and that some personal favorites survive (Roden, Horwitz, Schreck - OK, I just love his name).

I like Estrada and Bash too. Both of them look like they could add length to the bullpen or start in an emergency.

Bash reminds me of Lukes …. Older pros that don’t look like prospects, but can play a specific role in the bigs. They love Bash in Buffalo. I imagine they add Estrada of the two though.

I don’t think you can compare them to waiver claim guys. They cycle through those guys as they get added to waivers, but org guys not on the 40 man create more flexibility.

I think Phil Clark is a good example. Is he the third string catcher at the moment? No need to waste a 40 man spot for a third catcher.

I'm guessing part of the Jays' push for Soto is that it's also a push to retain Vlad.

That would make a lot of sense. Vlad doesn't want to be a one man show here, he wants teammates he can talk to and who can hit. Given he is buddies with Soto, and Soto hits normally like Vlad did this year (4 times over 150 OPS+, 3 times in the 140's vs Vlad's 2 in the 160's, a 130's, 2 110's, and a 106 as a rookie), he'd be a perfect fit. Mix in the Vlad RH and Soto LH and it just gets better and better. IMO the best situation would be getting Soto, signing Vlad long term, then signing Varsho long term so Soto's weak defense won't be as big an issue. If Vlad moves to 3B and Bo goes then you also want to get a high end defensive SS (Kasevich is supposed to be that).

Of course, all of this is dependent on signing Soto which reports say is the Jays big time goal - they are coming across as desperate which has to be making Soto's agent very, very happy.

Bash is the kind of pitcher that the Rays, Dodgers, Guardians, etc can turn into a useful long reliever... who can also spot start (and has three years of milb optioning). He's had a lot of success at AAA, which has been an extreme hitters league for 2-3 years. He limits homers despite a fly ball approach and average fastball (tops out around 94 mph), throws strikes, and when the slider is on, it's nasty and has a high spin rate. In one game when he went 5+ innings, he threw 49 sliders and got 12 called strikes with it. 19 were swung at, 7 whiffs, 8 fouls and only 4 put in play.

I'll reiterate again this year that I hope the Jays protect no one for the Rule 5 other than Top 100 prospect types.

The Jays end up losing many more Otto Lopez and Sam Dyson types to 40-man roster crunches and guys burning minor league options years early before being called up to the majors.

Leo Jimenez is already out of options and he just got here.

It's been 20 years since the Jays lost a Rule 5 pick permanently. I can't even recall the pitcher's name because he never pitched again after his Rule 5 year.

There's more value in keeping your prospects off your 40-man until they are actually called up to start their options clocks and to keep 40-man flexibility. Not to mention more opportunities to churn through other teams' flotsam & jetsam on waivers.

Challenge other teams to find & commit to a gem in your system and tip your cap when they do.

The Jays thought they were getting cute themselves with snagging Elvis Luciano on a technicality, then quietly cut him once they'd already invested all those resources.

Elvis was a gamble worth taking. 
They had some success with Biagini earlier.

Right now you can't hide a pitcher on a 26 roster unless you put him on the IL and even them, you end up with a guy who hasn't pitch enough and with only 2 options left.
A pitcher has to be immediately able to contribute at the MLB level to be kept on a major team roster.
Boston was able to steal 2 pitchers from the Yankees recently.
I doubt that Bash can stick and the Rays don't burden themselves with guys they can't option.

Travis Bergen is an other pitcher who drafted by in the rule 5.
He was returned after 21 games in San Francisco with a 5.49 ERA. 
He was traded to Arizona in 20 for Robbie Ray and than purchased back during the season.
I remember him mostly from a game in Dunedin in which pitching with a lead he walked the side afraid to give a long ball which came from the next pitcher instead.

Thanks, Marc. It looks like Andrew Bash can keep the ball in the park. I'm having trouble finding a stat which defines "good" for HR/9 but Andrew Bash has a career HR/9 of 0.6  (over 337 innings) which certainly looks good .

Rumor is the Mets are offering $660M to Soto. I didn't see reporting on the length but presumably it is many years. 12 or more maybe?

Michael - I saw that rumor too - that the Mets are going big dollars and years, Yankees fewer of both but more per year. I'm thinking it'll take $50 per over 15 = $750 mil at this point. Yikes. The rumors now are the Jays are starting to pivot to Willy Adames who would be a lot cheaper (#2 FA according to FG) - a SS who is willing to move to 3B entering his age 29 season with a 109 wRC+ lifetime - he'd be moving back to SS in 2026 if Bo leaves. 119 wRC+ last year but his defense was down - from +9/8 DRS the previous 2 years to -16 (yikes!). He wouldn't excite me, but could be a solid addition, allowing Vlad to stay at 1B.

In the end I'm glad if the Jays are starting to look at other options, so they don't get caught empty handed again.

I'm having trouble finding a stat which defines "good" for HR/9

The major league average in 2024 was 1.1.

Thanks you, Chuck.

Old friend Yusei Kikuchi has a career HR/9 of 1.6. Who knew? (But he has got it down below 1.3 in 2024).