The answer to the question - play good baseball until the trade deadline, and if you're out of the race at the end of July you trade the impending FAs.

The Blue Jays will not be underaking any of these fantasy, tear-it-down rebuild scenarios. They still think Springer is good!

Back in 2014 the Red Sox were among the teams exceeding the IFA signing bonus cap, and this over-spending in 2014 would prevent them from signing top players in 2015 - the year Vlad would be eligible to be signed. We also know that the Red Sox are among the teams that would later face additional penalties for under the table deals with agents. We know that THIS YEAR MLB sent letters to teams warning them to stop advising draftees to remove themselves from the Draft and enter the IFA pool.

We knew more than a year in advance that the Jays were favoured to sign VGJ. It was a clear result of the way AA was both looking to game the IFA market, and a niche created when other big spenders had taken themselves out of the running.

That's just one example that I know of that shows the way that AA was operating in order to position the team in ways that other organizations either could not, or did not. It is also worth noting, I think, that the Jays are among the teams that did not face discipline for their actions. They may have moved money around to make the signing - but they did so within the bounds of the rules as far as we know.

I've said since Day 1 that Shapiro was hired that he's a consummate middle manager. I think he follows and updates best practices. The teams that have won over the past decade are made up of organizations that have faced MLB discipline for violating rules. There's good reason to speculate that by 2019 a lot of teams were aware of what the Astros were doing with signs and were doing the same. Just look at the HR total for the Minnesota Twins that year and what any of those players have ever done before or since.

It's hard for me, a born cynic, to enjoy things innocently. I want our team to win, and I want them to do it by staying within the bounds of the rules, with players that aren't domestic abusers, or drunk drivers, and so on. For all the criticism of the front office, and i'm sure i'll continue to dish mine for years to come, you can do a lot worse, and I want to be explicit in including in that list "winners" that had to break the rules to do so. With that said, what I want to know is what I always want to know: what is this front office is doing better, differently, or where they are assuming risk in ways that other teams are not...is there a Blue Jay Way in 2024, and if so: what is it?

Jays will not tear it down but they will likely trade some guys. Just think it should be different gm doing it. It comes up a lot but I think my least favourite term in baseball is "upside". In 99% of cases, it doesn't mean anything except retroactively when a player doesn't work out. I mean, who had more upside? A 27 YO utility player with a career wrc+ of around 90 or a 20 YO first rounder in high A with a WRC+ of 181? Well, player number one is Jose Bautista an player #2 is Billy McKinney. Many of the best trades Jays made in last twenty years were trading for veterans like Bautista, Encarnacion, Ray, etc..

Yeah, I'm on the 'lets try until the deadline hits', unless someone overwhelms the Jays with a killer offer (a top 10 prospect for whoever). I'd lean against deals for Bo or Vlad or Bassitt unless it is very one sided in the Jays favor (could happen).

My gut is Garcia gets traded, relievers are always in high demand at the deadline, Kikuchi is possible but will need a strong package as the Jays value making players feel at home here so dealing a guy who signed here as a free agent, and seems to love it here might be a bad idea. Richards the club seems to love more than stats can say so I doubt anyone will offer enough to make them deal him. Turner I could see being delt as he is a one year guy who is older especially if he keeps hitting at a 150 wRC+ pace (April, June). If those 2 are delt (Turner & Garcia) then the pressure would be on to deal one more guy to get below the luxury tax and reset it for 2025 (and reduce penalties for signing free agents this winter).

If the Jays get back into contention then all bets are off. Hey, it could happen. Just keep the kids in the lineup and reduce Springer and Kiermaier's playing time and I could see it happening.

Kikuchi, Garcia (if healthy), Jansen, Richards, Turner, and Kiermaier (if anyone even wants him) are the likely trade chips this July. I would be shocked if they trade anyone with 2025 or 2026 control until July 2025 at the earliest. Trading a player one year too late rather than one year too early has been an Atkins pattern, and I don't think it stops now when desperation is at its peak and the two guys in charge are not locked up long enough to benefit from a rebuild.

If the team ends up hiring a new GM after this season, then we might see some franchise altering trades, but if Atkins is still occupying the seat, then risk aversion will be the likely result. Shapiro no doubt wants to win in 2025. He's not signed beyond that point.

Mike,

Your points this month have been so on point and accurate imho.

"Mike Shapiro- know that they haven't and, to some significant degree, can't and act accordingly"

Hope Mark does something too.

If Rob Refsnyder can OPS .875 for April, May and most of June then the Toronto Blue Jays can play .700 ball for a few damn weeks.

Still haz the faith.

"Kikuchi is possible but will need a strong package as the Jays value making players feel at home here so dealing a guy who signed here as a free agent, and seems to love it here might be a bad idea"

He is walking out the door anyway. Give him a hug on the way out, but it makes no sense to get nothing for him.

Depends on what you say is nothing - if he pitches strong you can make a QO and get a draft pick. Anything worth less than that isn't worth trading him for. A top 100 prospect plus a lower level one or two? Sure, I'd be good with that. But if a team just tries offering a tiny bit of salary relief and a B level prospect, screw it.

I thought it was odd that the Jays brought in Bowden Francis to mop up a single inning finishing the ninth in Wednesday's loss to Boston.

Seeing Yariel Rodriguez activated to start tonight makes a little more sense why they gave him some random work even with the pen full of 7th & 8th type reliever types with all the injuries.

Still disappointing to essentially see the Jays waste his last two 4 inning shoutout bulk appearances and building up his pitch counts by using him willy-nilly just like the rest of their one-inning relievers they don't trust.

Horwitz is injured?

Is this the bottom of the barrel?

i heard there was a hockey game on tonight. that's handy.

I'm reminded of that MAD TV sketch Lowered Expectations.

The front office strategy reminds me of The Simpsons episode where Homer's plan for success in college was "I'LL HIDE UNDER SOME COATS... AND HOPE THAT SOMEHOW EVERYTHING WILL WORK OUT."

i heard there was a hockey game on tonight. that's handy.

Nice to be able to change the channel with a clear conscience.

While it is refreshing to see the kids playing in the major leagues, we have to understand there are some consequences.

We know they might take time to learn how to handle major league pitching. But more specifically, all of the call ups seem to have some limitations.

First, none of them are burners on the bases. Barger might be the fastest but Horwitz, Schneider and Orelvis are probably average runners or lower.

Secondly, none appear to be average or above average defenders at this point in the careers. Davis Schneider has been OK, probably not the speediest in the outfield but generally steady. Addison Barger hasn't locked into a defensive position yet, he has moved from shortstop to sometime third baseman and sometime right fielder. Both Spencer Horwitz and Orelvis Martinez are learning how to play the same position, second base.

Playing the kids makes sense if you are not planning to win this season but has a cost if you are gunning for the playoffs.

Completely agree Gerry. The biggest issue that I see is that I’m not sure that either Barger or Martinez have a defensive position that they can play and Horwitz is a 1B. It’s a problem for another day of course but it is an issue.

Apparently Horwitz is not injured. Huh

Jimenez doubled and homered today, and is running a wRC+ of about 140 now.

I'd have Orelvis in the minors and Jimenez up.

Tonight has shown us who Orelvis is - a nightmare on defense who can hit. Basically the Jays need to figure out where to hide him on the field. Find it weird they haven't tried the outfield yet. Right now though I'd be putting Barger in RF as much as possible, Orelvis at 3B (fewer plays than 2B), Horwitz at 2B, Schneider in LF. I'd also try to get Clement into the lineup somehow. For a team with offensive issues it is amazing how the better hitters get benched so often while hitters on a season long slump keep playing (Springer). I know, veteran presence and reputation and massive contract.

When Bo comes back I suspect Orelvis or Barger will be back in Buffalo depending on what the Jays want. I'd lean towards Orelvis due to his scary defense.

Argh - as soon as I saw Springer coming up with bases loaded and 1 out I knew the game was over and he did exactly as expected - hit into a double play. Sigh.

John Schneider looked very upset during that game, as he should have. Maybe he will finally yell at the team. Maybe that will have an effect.

A month ago I said that I think Jimenez might be the Jays top prospect. Not a happy thought but that isn’t to denigrate Jimenez who appears to be rounding into something quite interesting. I think he deserves to be up ahead of Martinez but if Bo is back then I’d think it’s better for him to play every day in Buffalo then play twice a week in Toronto. And if he hits when he comes up he’ll just get benched:)

Crickets

There is a lot of baseball still to be played this year. But not too much by the AS break and then the trade deadline. The 2 & 3 WC have 3 teams with +7, 6 & 4 games over 500. Everyone else is under 500. The Jays 5 gms below 500.

What is to be done? Depending on how someone personally sees the playoff race seems the biggest factor. I would not add at the deadline if the team fell further back or stayed the same. A surge upwards is the only way I would add. This will answer itself by the trade deadline.

So most likely trades would have to be made. By trading Turner we could replace him with Votto or give ABs to kids. By trading KK we lose some OF defense which we have plenty of IMO. Varsho & Eden (late inning D & a day off for Varsho). Those trades allow us to recalculate the luxury tax threshold. If one more contract needs to be traded then who would that be? Trading Yimi Garcia and/or C green probably gets the Luxury Tax reset. IMO Kikuchi gets a QO. Offer him around and see what you can get. Nobody mentions that this past off season SP contracts for FAs was V high. B Snell in particular but I am probably cherry picking.

This seems like a very good opportunity to make the team younger and cheaper without making it worse IMO. Except for trading Kikuchi, Yimi and Green. Danny would also hurt but someone may be desperate.

The fans have already started to complain a lot. I don't know how to make it worse. But it could happen and I get to witness it.

A weird situation. 5.5 games out of a playoff spot, yet the 6th worst record in baseball(tied with Tex and Det). In fact, the Jays would be in the draft lottery for the first overall pick of the season ended today.

So it could go either way, but I think we are starting to see that they are not going on a hot streak anytime soon

Strange standing this year - White Sox in the basement by a mile, 6 1/2 behind 2nd worse. Then 4 teams within 5 games of each other - Angels, A's, Marlins, Rockies. Then comes the 'last playoff slot contenders' from the Jays to Padres 14 teams bunched up within 2 1/2 games of each other. Then favorites for the final slot just 2 games ahead of that group - Red Sox, Twins, Royals, Mariners, Atlanta, Milwaukee - some division leaders, some WC, some not in playoffs, all within 4 games of each other. Then the teams with the best shot at winning it all and likely locks for the playoffs now - Dodgers, Cleveland, Phillies, O's, and Yankees - all within 4 games of each other.

Good list of teams. The dregs who are definite sellers. Not the Jays. With so many close WC contenders in the list there are many buyers. Already mentioned by a Bauxite. The Jays can and probably should/will sell a lot. Yet not weaken themselves if they kept Danny, Kikuchi, Yimi and Green.

Some can't see the forest for the trees.

There’s simply no way to look at this as a good team - record, run differential, base runs etc. And that makes sense; there’s only one position player (Varsho) who is a decent bet to put up 3 or more WAR for the year and maybe only a couple of others to put up 2 WAR (Jansen, IKF, Schneider). The CWS and A’s aren’t even attempting to win this year so the Jays are really only better than one team in the AL that’s trying to be competitive (LAA) and your mileage may vary on whether the Angels are trying given Trout’s injury.

And the pitching has been worse overall.

Today's lineup features cleanup hitter George Springer. Word on the street us that Kevin Kiermaier will get the nod to fill the cleanup role tomorrow. John Schneider has been thumbing his copy of the Communist Manifesto well but missed the "from each according to his abilities" part.

So how bad is it? Well, IKF is leading off today and Springer is batting cleanup. I think it is safe to say that in this group Springer being cleanup is the bigger issue. Hitting before Varsho, Schneider, and Clement - all of whom have 150 OPS points on him. Then at 8/9 we have Kirk & Kiermaier - both sub 600 OPS like Springer. Orelvis on the bench after his first game/hit/error, Jansen a day off (catchers need that), Turner a day off, and Barger on the bench (bad overall stats but since his 2nd call up has hit 353/389/412 so of course he is benched - got to keep Springer & Kiermaier in the lineup). This all reminds me of an old Bill James column where he said what the lineup is isn't what matters, but who is in the lineup does.

Now, lets dig in deeper... Ben Lively is the pitcher, his GB/FB ratio is 0.56 this year, 0.60 lifetime. He is a known finesse pitcher (just 7.1 K/9). Springer vs finesse pitchers this year has a 102 sOPS+ (!) so this is the type of pitcher he is likely to do well against. Kiermaier is at 68 sOPS+, Kirk 56. His GB/FB ratio would land in the middle category (over 0.5 but not by a lot). Springer has a 72 sOPS+ vs those guys, Kiermaier 98 (!) so maybe this does make sense. Turner is at 35 so benching him today makes sense (only Barger has done worse among guys on the roster right now).

So double checking a bit deeper this might work well. Might. I'm not holding my breath though.

As we close in on the mid-point guys with 2+ WAR: BR: Varsho (2.7), IKF (2.3). That's it. Vlad at 1.8 is next. FG: Varsho (2.0), that's it, next is IKF at 1.3, Vlad down at #5 at 1.0. Wow, the two main systems really disagree at times don't they? Twins have the last playoff slot and have 2 guys over 2 WAR (Casto and Correa at 2.6 and 2.4 respectively - 2.3 and 2.5 via bWAR).

The Jays have been outhomered 98 to 61 on the season. Only one team has allowed more dingers and only one team has hit fewer. Forget all the other stats, just that one says the Jays are lucky to be only 5 games under .500.

Our SPs have been V good.

Kikuchi has had 4 bad starts in his 15. The other 11 were good/v good.

Bassit has had 3 bad starts in 15.

Gausman 5 bad in 15. Missed some ST.

Berrios 1 bad in 15.

Manoah 2 bad in 5 starts

So our SPs have been carrying us. Very obvious to me. Also all are basically cheap due to the V expensive FA market. Would I trade them to get a prospect haul similar to Verlander to Houston and Halladay to the Phillies? Both HOF. Both Houston and Philadelphia have no regrets IMHO.

Davis Schneider starts the party.

I don't even care if the Jays win games at this point. They aren't good enough to win. I just want them to stop playing bad veterans instead of young players every day.

Will be interesting to watch the Buffalo Boys for the rest of the year. Add in IKF and Varsho. The trade deadline will be interesting as well. But don’t expect anything but disappointment from the old guard.

To add to the disappointment Jordan Romano had some elbow discomfort when he was throwing today and his rehab work is being scaled back.

I have described myself as a failed manager, but this is what I’d try:
Horwitz. 1B
Clément. 3B
Barger. RF
Schneider. LF
Varsho. CF
IKF. SS
Martinez. 2B
Guerrero. DH
Jansen. C

Varsho is now broken.

Come on down Steward Berroa. You're next contestant on Mr. Scheider's random lineup generator

Springer .191/.283/.283
Kirk .195/.288/.280
Kiermaier .188/.238/.293
Bichette .237/.286/.342
Vogelbach .186/.278/.300

This says a lot about how the 2024 season has gone. These are disastrous hitting performances around the halfway mark of the season (obviously Vogelbach is now gone). It does make me wonder if the team has some significant problems with their coaching staff and approach.

If Atkins was fired tomorrow would anyone think he got a raw deal?

If John Schneider was fired tomorrow would anyone be surprised?

"Springer .191/.283/.283
Kirk .195/.288/.280
Kiermaier .188/.238/.293
Bichette .237/.286/.342
Vogelbach .186/.278/.300

This says a lot about how the 2024 season has gone."

I am pretty sure there has yet to be a game this year that the skipper didn't choose to have at least 2 of these hitters in the lineup. Tho maybe that includes biggio as one of the two.

Yeah, it is late in the season to have 3 different players hitting less than 200 BA and less than 600 OPS in the starting lineup. I know hitting is down this year, but that seems really bad.

Right now I have to figure they are playing Springer and Kiermaier in the desperate hope one of them does something good enough to draw a contenders eye. I'd give up either for a dirty sock at this point. Neither has any value to the Jays, and are eating up $34.6 mil this year, while Springer will eat another $24.167 in 2025 and 2026. Ouch. Hate it as both seem like nice guys but we all know the saying about nice guys and where they finish.

My gut says no way they get rid of either of them without eating serious cash or giving up something valuable with them. Given Bo is determined to go to free agency maybe packaging him with Springer can clear most of Springer's contract (at least $10 mil per year) and get the Jays under the CBT level this year, thus resetting it for 2025/26. That has significant value (rate of 20% if you go over vs 50%). It would also let the Jays sign a free agent who has compensation without losing $1 million in IFA money (a big plus potentially). Instead of trading Bo though maybe using Kikuchi (grossly underpaid this year at $10 mil, but is $12 mil for CBT purposes) and Garcia ($6 mil = again under his value significantly) who both would leave post 2024 anyways. Might let the Jays save enough using those 2 and George while paying most of Springer's salary going forward.

Sadly at this point I'd be quite surprised if the Jays get back into the race. 6 games out of the WC right now, tied with the Tigers for 6th worst record in MLB (thus potentially a shot at the 1st overall pick in 2025). I'd rather the Jays get back in the race but realistically that ain't happening with 1 more vs Cleveland then 3 in Boston, then 4 vs the Yankees - by that point the Jays most likely will be very buried, pushing 10 games out of a playoff slot the way things are going. Then comes 4 vs Houston, 3 at Seattle, 3 in SF, 3 in Arizona. None of those will be easy either. Then comes the All-Star break when the Jays will probably have a big sit down with all front office staff and coaches to determine what to do with this disaster of a season. Post break 9 at home vs Detroit, Tampa, and Texas in a last gasp to avoid a sell off. Then off to Baltimore for a double header as part of a 4 game set when the trade deadline hits.

So those looking for cheap tickets to enjoy watching ML baseball can circle August 6th when Baltimore comes to town post trade deadline, and a quiet weekend vs Oakland after that. Suddenly seems appropriate that the season ends with 3 against Miami - another team that made the playoffs last year but flopped badly once the bell rang (2nd worst record in MLB - they lost their GM pre-season when the owners decided she wasn't right for the presidents job, and put a dud in there instead).

So who are successful GM's who aren't signed on to run other teams? I dug in awhile ago and didn't come up with much, but Houston won the WS with Jeff Luhnow who left the organization in great shape for his replacement. He now owns two soccer teams and his wife seems very pleased that the Astros are having troubles this year. Wonder if he'd be interested? John Coppolella ran Atlanta before AA was put in with a deep farm and strong ML team all set. He was dumped due to cheating on IFA's (he basically pushed the rules too far) but has been reinstated for a year now. Either of those guys - both with negatives put on them, perhaps unfairly given many other teams, especially the Yankees, were doing similar things. I'd give either a shot at this point as both built strong systems and had success, or set up their successor quite nicely for success. No way in hell I'd promote from within though as odds are you'd just get a clone of who is running things now. Plus a new one from outside would have a fresh perspective and no ties to anyone on the roster, thus less likely to care about 'but this guy has been our heart and soul' and instead make cold, hard, best for the team decisions.

Steward Berroa was pulled from the AAA game in the sixth (of a game that started again in the third after being postponed last night). He was standing on 2B when he left the game. Could be the Varsho insurance...

As of right now the Jays have 1 guy with an 800+ OPS, 6 more in the 700's. 3 in the 600's, 3 in the 500's, 1 in the 400's (Barger who is hitting FAR better in his 2nd callup than his disaster first one). That totals 14 due to Bo being on the IL (628 OPS). Last years team (with 50+ PA) had 1 guy sub 600 pre-allstar break (Espinal), 2 800+ guys (Bo & Chapman), 6 in the 700's (730 was roughly a 100 OPS+ then, all 6 were 730+), and 3 in the 600's (Kirk, Biggio, Varsho - 70's for OPS+ in all 3 cases).

Last years team had a OPS+ of 106, hard to believe they were above average, but there you go. This years before today was at 93 (easy to believe, but feels worse).

12 guys have 100+ PA thus far in 2024: just 3 with wRC+ over 110 (ie: visibly better than league average, one game shouldn't shift them below that) - Vlad, Jansen, Schneider. Near that (over 100) are Varsho, Clement (today moved him from 107 to 100), Turner, and IKF (went from 100 to 110 with his 2 HR game). The other 3 (not counting Biggio or IL Bo) are sub 70 Springer (now at 68), Kirk (67), Kiermaier (51 and dropping fast).

The guys from Buffalo 2023 with current wRC+ (love that FG updates during the day) - Horwitz (146), Schneider (115), Clement (100), Martinez (92), Barger (28, but 133 since 2nd call-up). Clement isn't young but has played well overall and deserves a shot plus won't be a free agent for many years (under 2 years service time pre-2024). Right now there is no real excuse not to play Schneider, Clement, Martinez, and Barger every game. All have 4+ years of control post 2024, all are hitting at the moment, and only Martinez is a nightmare on defense. All play multiple positions (Horwitz 2B/1B, Schneider 2B/LF, Clement 3B/SS/2B, Martinez 2B/3B, Barger 3B/RF). Obviously you aren't going to bench Vlad (123 wRC+) So I'd be putting Varsho in CF full-time, surround him with Schneider and Barger with Kiermaier and Springer coming in late for defense if the Jays lead in the 8th or later. Clement at 3B, Horwitz at 1B, Martinez 2B, Vlad DH but maybe use Turner at DH Vlad at 1B, Horwitz at 2B mostly once Bo is back (I expect Martinez to go back to AAA then) until one or more of the kids shows they can't handle it. At this stage Springer and Kiermaier have no reason to complain about being benched - the kids are easily out playing them. IKF is at SS for now, but back to 3B with Clement bouncing around wherever needed once Bo is back.

Truth be told, Atkins hasn't done badly in bringing along more kids just in time as the old guard starts to fall apart, but sadly the old guard is being played everyday regardless of how well they can play.

Billy Martin for manager please. No not really. But I’d like to see someone who thinks outside the corporate box. This organization, from top to close to the bottom lacks creative and critical approaches. Management keeps on doing the same things that don’t work. In today’s game the Guardians were hitting a lot of high fastballs but Berrios didn’t change his approach. The lack of flexibility in making out the lineup points to the same problem; the inability to adapt to changes in approach.

A recent article in the Athletic suggested the reason hitting was down was partly because of the improvements in pitching that are rooted in stats. Wonder if the inflexible character of the Jays organization has prevented the team from making the necessary changes.

There has been some ok depth at AAA but there is a massive drop-off in talent currently at AA and A+ - and the jury is out on the prospects lower down. AAA will definitely not have the same kind of depth next year unless a bunch of guys repeat thr level.

A Spanish speaking reporter is saying that Dominican Steward Berroa has been called up.

This will require a 40 man roster move. I don't think that Alek Manoah or Nathan Lukes have been moved to the 60 day IL yet.

Not too worried about depth in AAA for 2025. To me #1 is prospects to fill in holes and Schneider, Martinez, Barger, Horwitz cover that right now and should for 2025. We need for 2025 a backup catcher (odds are Jansen will leave or at least the Jays need to plan for that), a few pitchers (Kikuchi, Garcia, Richards all free agents), a DH, and a CF (Turner & Kiermaier respectively).

DH/OF are easily covered by Barger and Horwitz and Schneider with Martinez part of the 2B mix with Clement, IKF who also cover 3B with Barger and Martinez mixed in. Phew, the rubrics cube the Jays have with players and positions.

Pitching is the BIG issue - #5 is a mess with Rodriguez & Francis both having some potential but not enough to lock it down by any stretch (ERA+ of 68 and 75 respectively). If Kikuchi leaves/is traded then what? Manoah might be back (lets hope, but not count on), Tiedemann has been walking the world (11 BB in 10 1/3 IP) when on the mound this year, Macko and Wallace showing promise in AA but that's a long way from the majors. For the pen Swanson has been lit up in the minors (15 H 9 BB in 10 1/3 IP), but no one really impresses me down there right now. With pitchers sudden out of nowhere going from scrub to star happens, and it isn't as rare as one would think, but counting on it is a fools proposition. I expect the Jays to be busy in free agency for pitching, as always, and to try to get live arms in any deals done mid-season or in the offseason.

AAA hitting depth for 2025 will be mostly guys like Clement who you hope find their bat like he did, or guys who aren't expected to do well like Schneider (very few had him on prospect lists before 2023) with fingers crossed they figure it out like he did. Will things work? We'll see, but it is a poor bet. If he holds onto his job this will be the most challenging winter for Atkins yet - a tighter budget, 2 stars with 1 year of control left (same for Romano, Bassitt, Green, Mazya, Swanson, Cabrera) and no real pitching that is ready to jump in. Expect to see college pitchers drafted if any solid ones are available in early rounds by the Jays this year - they could potentially make it to the pen in 2025 if good enough.

Could the Jays dump a few big salaries this summer/winter to free up more cash to go after Soto? Sure. Odds are he'll go to whoever offers the most cash (he has pretty much said that in the past) so the Jays have as good a shot as most. Other big names are Alex Bregman (3B - back up to a 104 OPS+ after a horrid start, 153 OPS+ in June), Garrit Cole (opt out - he'll do that, then the Yankees will extend his deal as per the way it is structured so he can't leave), Morton (a bit old), Burnes (he'd be nice to take away from Baltimore), and many others. Will the Jays go after one of the big guns with a weak team post 2024? I could see them trying in an effort to avoid losing too much fan momentum after a very disappointing season. If Soto looks like the MVP at the end of the year I could see the Jays going all-in on him ala with Ohtani last winter. We know they have the cash, but is it the right move? Wait and see I guess.

Hope the plan is to see who might be major league ready among the recent call ups. Slot them into the holes and trade/release those of the old guard who aren’t cutting it.

The team hitting is terrible, but I wonder if there's something besides age (Springer & Turner) that's affected critical pieces of the Jays offense more than the top hitters on other teams.

Given that the MLB is at an average of 8 games/team, the lowest since the '60s year of the pitcher, I wonder if the MLB will tweak the ball or the rules in the future in 2025.

The Fox broadcast of NY-ATL had the broadcasters (Smoltz was one) that MLB needs to do something to tip the balance. Sure, it's great that the pitch clock had addressed game times, but the "interesting events" per minute seem down across the league. League average OPS down is significant. Lowering slugging decreases the enjoyable events/hour but also 3-2 ABs that result in the walk.

If MLB wants to increase offense, get rid of the fricken umpires. It's a clown show most games.

The Bisons just scored 21. They all have high OBP because they dont have worry about bullcrap calls.

Yep.

Just put Springer on the IL and send him on an all-expenses paid trip to the Dunedin lab.

Honestly, it's so weird. Watching his ABs, he often looks better than last year. Working counts more has led to his highest BB% in years, and he has one of his lowest K% rates. His expected stats would have him 100 OPS higher. His launch angle sweet spot % is in line. But - his barrel % and exit velocity are all career lows. His bat speed is middle of the pack. His sprint speed continues to be elite for his age.

So, I at least can empathize with where they are coming from when they say he doesn't seem far away from getting going. Because he doesn't. But at the end of the day, results matter. And when you're playing bad, you don't put that hitter in the cleanup spot.

The team's SP hasn't endured much scrutiny this season with so many other obvious weaknesses to gripe about, notably the tepid offense and the injured/ineffective bullpen. But there are at least some causes for concern on the SP front as well.

Berrios's K rate is low and his HR rate is high. His FIP is close to 5.00. He has been skating on thin ice all season but has overcome that with effective results. Seems like a ticking time bomb to me.

Bassitt's walk rate has spiked but he has survived this with a very low HR rate. Bassitt cannot afford to walk 3.6 per 9. The HR are going to come.

Gausman's drop in K rate is a concern and can no longer be attributed to a short spring training. The peripherals suggest he has deserved better results though he is a far piece from his two previous seasons. Saying that the starting pitchers feel they need to be perfect to win, because of the lack of offensive support, may well be true, but a little look-see in the mirror wouldn't hurt either.

And of course the 5th rotation spot started the year as a question mark and should remain a source of misery for the balance of the season.

Kikuchi's story is a positive one. The improvements he made in 2023 have stuck, most notably tackling his control issues. He's on pace for a career high in IP so we'll see if he has the requisite endurance. He would seem to be an obvious trade chit come the deadline. Everyone can use a SP.

Yes those numbers tell an ugly pitching tale. Rodriquez is the name on that list that makes me scratch my head. Buck Martinez and Caleb Joseph have raved about him whenever hers started but i just don’t see anything that interesting there. They know a lot more about pitching than I do so I hold out hope. However, for right now, Francis has pitched well his last few times in the bulk role, so I’d have him in that role and put Rodriquez in the pen.

What. A. Season.

MLB suspends Blue Jays infielder Orelvis Martinez 80 games for PED violation.

— Shi Davidi (@ShiDavidi) June 23, 2024

How embarrassing. His whole family travelled to Cleveland for his debut and now this. What a mess this team has become...

Watching his ABs, [Springer] often looks better than last year. Working counts more has led to his highest BB% in years

Thing is, that's often a symptom of a hitter who knows, often sub-consciously, that he's lost some bat speed. Although it usually happens to guys who are a few years older.

Well for Springer the stats are very bad. Average he is 3rd worst in MLB (191) - 7 guys are sub 200. 17th worst in OBP @ 283, 2nd worst for Slg% at 283 (just 4 points above the worst), dead last in OPS (566 to Pirate Jared Triolo's 567), 9th worst for ISO, 3rd worst for BABIP (maybe some hope there), 4th worst in wRC+, 2nd worst in wRAA, 3rd worst in wOBA, 9th highest GB%. He is hitting to all fields (39.6% pull, 34.7% up middle, 25.7% other way) with medium strength (54.0%).

What is interesting is Vlad hits it on the ground about the same as Springer (52.3% Vlad, 52.5% Springer) but Vlad hits more up the middle and with more power (41.4% hard vs 27.7%). Both need to loft it a LOT more. Varsho is 4th worst for LD% at 13.7% but also doesn't hit ground balls (28.6%).

In stats I don't normally look at -WPA: Win Probability Cost (ie: you did stuff to hurt the teams odds of winning) the Jays have 3 in the top 7: #1 IKF, plus Varsho & Schneider - guessing this means they do the least to hurt the team. Varsho is also #47 on +WPA - helping the team to win. Turner is 4th lowest on this, Springer #10, Bo #19, IKF #26. For leverage (ie: comes up to the plate in high pressure situations) Vlad, IKF, Varsho in the bottom 10 (never get high pressure situations) which isn't a surprise sadly. The top 4 are all Yankees (including Soto) which suggests they either blow out or are blown out. Turner has had the most pressure, tied with Bo, but if you go 1+ PA you get Clement at #1 on the Jays, then Vogelbach, then Kirk. Orelvis Martinez the lowest pressure by a mile (by design), then Horwitz, then Barger. Kind of makes sense - you try to give the kids low pressure if you can. But I didn't expect that Vogelbach, Kirk, and Clement would've had the most high pressure PA's on the team. For 'Clutch' Varsho is #1, Jansen dead last on the team - both by a large margin. Schneider a distant 2nd for ability in the clutch, followed by IKF (again, not a shock). Springer & Kirk are the two nearest Jansen at the bottom. I'd say that all passes the sniff test. For MLB Varsho is #1 for clutch (2.35 vs #2 Baltimore's Jordan Westburg at 1.72 tied with Corey Seager). Aaron Judge is 2nd worst for Clutch in the majors (!), this is his 3rd year in a row doing poorly in this stat (9 seasons, 5 negative for clutch ability, all 5 very negative). In Judge's case it might be due in part to the high baseline his offense has, but regardless the higher the pressure the worse he does it seems, while Varsho is the opposite.

espn.com: "Martinez tested positive for Clomiphene, a fertility drug on the league's banned substance list."

Did you see Orelvis's father? He should be tested.

It is possible he was dumb enough not to check with the team before taking it - fertility drugs aren't the first thing that come to mind for PEDs. But it is a major poor judgement moment no matter what. Just keeps making this a year from he'll much like 20 years ago - 2004 was a year from hell but no PEDs.

On a more serious note I think Atkins is cursed or he did something bad to someone with a voodoo doll (OK, not that serious a note).

Consider:

His team is struggling. His top two bullpen guys are on the IL. His off season moves haven't worked the way he expected.

Now as you flip to plan B and look at rebuilding:

Orelvis gets a suspension
Your #1 tradable asset, Jimi Garcia, is on the IL.
Jordan Romano, a less likely tradeable player,is on the IL
Danny Jansen and his expiring contract is in a slump
Same for Yusei Kikuchi
Joey Votto has already missed half a season.
Two of the top guys to be promoted from Buffalo to fill a vacancy, Nathan Lukes and Hagen Danner, are on the IL.

I am almost feeling sorry for Atkins, almost.

Oh hey there papa martinez.

IKF has worked out for Atkins. At least so far. He could get hit with an anvil thrown from the top deck tomorrow. But he has been good on both sides of the ball.

But they need to realize that Gausman and Bassett are only going to decrease in value, and look at moving them too.

Maybe people are starting to realize there is not enough to build around to retool for next season.

I think we have seen the last of Orelvis for this season. He is eligible to return with six games left. You wouldn't put him in against major league pitching with no games for six months.

Gerry, I think there is a significant risk that Martinez will never be back. Martinez’s one interesting skill is power.

How responsible is an organization for taking all due diligence to ensure their prospects aren't doping?

Would seem to be a pretty important thing to screen for.

I am going to guess that his dad gave him the modern version of "hot stuff" that all the "lifetime natty" dudes discover their superior genetics on.

Martinez's excuse makes no sense at all. He claims that "we were prescribed a treatment, which included a medication called Rejun 50"... but that's a FEMALE fertility drug that stimulates ovulation. If his GF was taking it as prescribed, Orelvis wouldn't have tested positive. It seems that he was taking it - and using it off-label - as a testosterone enhancer. He can blame the Dominican doctor all he wants, but he wasn't taking Rejun 50 to help with "fertility issues" and it almost certainly wasn't even prescribed for him, given the wording of his statement: "we were prescribed" not "I was prescribed".

Would seem to be a pretty important thing to screen for.

How are they supposed to screen for it though? It's MLB that does steroid testing. I assume the teams aren't allowed to do their own tests. If a player is determined to clandestinely take something then they will.

I see he says it was a fertility drug he was taking with his girlfriend. I mean, MLB also warned players not to take those five years ago.

I can't seem to find good evidence that Clomophine is a big anabolic, but it does spike up testosterone, so...maybe it is. He says he started taking it in the off season, so...maybe that's a good sign that he isn't just going to wash out since he showed power before this year.

Sort of a bummer

Trying to make sense of the excuses a PED cheat makes will usually do brain damage:)

Why can't orgs do their own testing apart from the mlb testing?

Orgs should be doing a lot of diligence on the substance front, asking repeatedly and verifying all substances a player is taking every year. You would think an org that talks about process so much would do something like this.

I’m not a fan of the front office immediately proclaiming its “surprise” about this incident (classic CYA). Just like Atkins stated he was “surprised” about the Berrios pull last October.

The org should take some responsibility for these PED failures.

Plausible Best Possible lineups:



Using this year's stats only:

* 1. 2B Horwitz 45pa, .444obp, 146wrc+
* 2. 1B Guerrero 331pa, .363obp, 123wrc+
* 3. LF Schneider 251pa, .319obp, 115wrc+
* 4. C Jansen 171pa, .327obp, 114wrc+
* 5. SS Falefa 249pa, .325obp, 110wrc+
* 6. CF Varsho 270pa, .289obp, 104wrc+
* 7. DH Turner 245pa, .327obp, 103wrc+
* 8. 3B Clement 140pa, .290obp, 100wrc+
* 9. RF Springer 286pa, .283obp, 68wrc+
* (9. RF Biggio 156pa, .331obp, 89wrc+)

* X. IF Bichette 276pa, .286obp, 80wrc+
* (X. PH Vogelbach 79pa, .278obp, 70wrc+)
* X. C Kirk 139pa, .288obp, 67wrc+
* X. OF Kiermaier 147pa, .238obp, 51wrc+
* X. UT Barger 36pa, .222obp, 28wrc+
* X. IF Martinez 3pa, .333obp, 92wrc+





Using Past 1 Calendar Year Stats

* 1. 2B Horwitz 79pa, .392obp, 129wrc+
* 2. LF Schneider 392pa, .349obp, 137wrc+
* 3. 1B Guerrero 694pa, .353obp, 122wrc+
* 4. C Jansen 313pa, .345obp, 128wrc+
* 5. 3B Clement 184pa, .313obp, 112wrc+
* 6. DH Turner 559pa, .327obp, 105wrc+
* 7. SS Falefa 449pa, .327obp, 100wrc+
* 8. CF Varsho 549pa, .282obp, 91wrc+
* 9. RF Springer 650pa, .309obp, 88wrc+
* (9. RF Biggio 369pa, .362obp, 106wrc+)

* (X. PH Vogelbach 237pa, .309obp, 98wrc+)
* X. PH Votto 230pa, .309obp, 95wrc+
* X. IF Bichette 543pa, .308obp, 95wrc+
* X. C Kirk 359pa, .315obp, 88wrc+
* X. OF Kiermaier 347pa, .283obp, 78wrc+

* X. IF Martinez 3pa, .333obp, 92wrc+
* X. UT Barger 36pa, .222obp, 28wrc+



Using Fangraphs Combined Rest of Season Projections:

* 1. SS Bichette 316pa, .324obp, 119wrc+
* 2. 1B Guerrero 353pa, .359obp, 138wrc+
* 3. LF Schneider 275pa, .330obp, 117wrc+
* 4. C Jansen 206pa, .320obp, 118wrc+
* 5. 2B Horwitz 160pa, .356obp, 115wrc+
* 6. DH Turner 271pa, .330obp, 110wrc+
* (6. DH Vogelbach 84pa, .335obp, 114wrc+)
* 7. CF Varsho 331pa, .299obp, 108wrc+
* 8. RF Springer 320pa, .319obp, 107wrc+
* 9. 3B Clement 137pa, .308obp, 100wrc+

* X. C Kirk 160pa, .343obp, 114wrc+
* X. UT Barger 160pa, .308obp, 99wrc+
* (X. UT Biggio 143pa, .323obp, 97wrc+)
* X. IF Falefa 223pa, .310obp, 92wrc+
* X. OF Kiermaier 204pa, .290obp, 85wrc+

* X. OF Lukes 11pa, .324obp, 102wrc+
* X. PH Votto 71pa, .309obp, 96wrc+
* X. IF Martinez 97pa, .285obp, 95wrc+
* X. IF Jimenez 11pa, .319obp, 94wrc+

Who was Springer throwing that ball in to? That was a horrible throw.

Why can't orgs do their own testing apart from the mlb testing?

I just don't think they're allowed. The testing program is spelled out in great detail in the CBA, of what the league can and can't do and when. It's a very specific program, collectively bargained between the league and players union. I know the testing itself is run by MLB. I don't think the teams have authority to do this to their own players.

I always look forward to the excuses these PED cheats use when they get busted, but a 22 year old man taking female fertility drugs in an effort to get pregnant really gets first prize honours for creativity. Certainly one of the more entertaining moments of the season.

Agreed, the excuse was hilarious. Even more so was listening to Buck explain how players need to ask their team about substances they put in their body. Implicitly accepting that Martinez took something that he didn’t know was banned.

Back to baseball - an unbelievable AB by Horwitz. The HR result was great but I was more impressed with the fouls on the previous 3 pitches.

While the throw wasn't great, Springer's diving catch was, and again his defense has been quite good this season. And the double doesn't hurt either.

While I agree that it’s likely that Martinez is lying, the drug is prescribed off label to treat male infertility as well:

https://www.healthline.com/health/clomid-for-men#indications

It sort of makes sense if one of the reasons for fertility is low T that performance enhancing drugs might often increase T.

Of course one of the causes of low T is past heavy steroid use too, so there can be a loop there as well.

Fertility rates in men under 4 have been dwindling at an alarming rate in the past 10 years. Lots of young men on treatments for low testosterone, sperm counts or other fertility obstacles. Probably better not to jump to conclusions of why and instead accept how.

Horowitz now has an OPS nearly 300 higher than anyone else in the lineup (and larger than Barger+KK or Barger+Springer but not quite more than KK+Springer).

I pinch hit varsho here

Varsho isn't available I think since being injured on his swing yesterday. The commentators said he felt a lot better today, but I think he's still likely to be out for a few more days.

Bo to the Dodgers & Vlad to the Mariners could be good for all the stakeholders.

This is a bad team. They don’t have “it”, and I use whatever that means in the vaguest term possible.

I think Barger will have to tone that leg kick down during his swing. A lot of extra movement that major league pitching will exploit.

Might it be the extremely hot, humid air over the Midwest (and Southern Ontario) fueling this Jays home run display the last two games? It sure is nice to see them getting the ball airborne and over the fence.

They clearly have good ‘players’ and have the past few years. But it hasn’t clicked properly and this season has been an honestly predictable nightmare. (Predictable via results, not all specific issues).

It’s a weird fresh air and indictment when the Trevor Richards Experience is a gentle reprieve.

But I’m young and jaded (thanks, 21st century world). It still isn’t impossible they figure something out… someone bet a dollar and make a million off it.

And has anyone noticed Don Mattingly has been absent from dugout camera shots recently?

Picked off first twice in two days, in key spots. Pathetic brand of baseball. What are we even doing here.

Now for the positive: ridiculously nice play by Horwitz.

It's pretty funny when you try to take the FO's perspective right now.

They clearly believe in the talent, or at least would mever admit otherwise.

But the talent is sucking real bad across every area of the team, which should be massive indictment of the coaching staff.....but they've invested so much in this staff and have already used coaching firings many times so it's getting pretty hard to draw on that well again.

They're so, so stuck.

Notes based on the team's Baseball Reference WAR leaderboard at midseason:
- IKF is #1. I don't know if there's a better summary of the season than that. However, hat tip to Atkins, I thought IKF was a significant overpay and the front office correctly identified that he had value to provide.
- Varsho is #2. He's solidly outWARing Moreno and there's, justifiably, not been nearly as much grumbling about the trade this year.
- Vlad is #3. Even if he's never going to be 2021 Vlad again, he looks to be settling into a role as a good major leaguer if this becomes his norm. One can debate the cost and whether there are internal replacements and what the ageing curve may look like, but there is value there.
- Jansen is #5. A pending free agent whose backup/time-share is hitting under .200 with an OBP and SLG under .300. I find it odd how there's been complete silence on efforts to resign him.
- Garcia and Kikuchi, also pending free agents, at #8 and #9.
- Clement at #6 and Schneider at #7. I wouldn't have guessed they'd be in that order. An example of some of the weaknesses in BR's WAR?
- Green at #12. A reliever with 15.2 innings pitched. Another good example of how poorly the Jays season has gone.
- Noticeably absent: Bichette, Gausman, Romano, Springer, Kiermaier. Another summary of why this has beccome a lost season.

That was a fun at-bat. Horwitz really knows what he’s doing,

Terrible call on the strike 2 call on Vlad, right away naturally. And he chases a bad one to strike out. We aren’t allowed to have fun. Are we?

Nope. No fun.

Pretty tough to get hits against a guy that sits at 100 and touches 101, 102, or 103 if they are also going to give him pitches that are several inches outside the strike zone as well.

Still, there are the bones of a more exciting/better team if we play more of the AAA guys more often as most of them seem to be doing well, and there's more to hope for from them.

Cleveland's the best team in baseball at home this season, and the Jays were at least very close in this one if you can take that as a silver lining. Good day for Horwitz and Turner for sure.

That Horwitz at bat against Clase in the 9th might be the single best plate appearance by a Blue Jay this season. That was seriously impressive.

Enjoying watching this team a little more now. Horwitz and IKF are setting good examples of maturity and professionalism. Horwitz’s last at bat was the opposite of Vlad’s. Vlad really, really needs to grow up. Springer had a good day and he’s enjoyable to watch now. Would love to see Berroa get a chance. KK seems like a good guy but he’s a black hole in the lineup. Maybe when Bo comes back KK is the one to go away.

Enjoying watching this team a little more now. Horwitz and IKF are setting good examples of maturity and professionalism. Horwitz’s last at bat was the opposite of Vlad’s. Vlad really, really needs to grow up. Springer had a good day and he’s enjoyable to watch now. Would love to see Berroa get a chance. KK seems like a good guy but he’s a black hole in the lineup. Maybe when Bo comes back KK is the one to go away.

Definitely more enjoyable team with Horwitz and others in it. Need to jettison KK and Turner ASAP and give Springer fewer abs. Let the young guys play.

While we are all depressed, let me add to the despair.

Shane Farrell was hired by the Jays as the Director of Scouting in late 2019 and he has presided over four drafts. By the anecdotal expectation the four drafts should see the Jays getting four major league regulars and half a dozen part timers or relievers.

I just looked at the top five selections each season, 20 in total. That's where most of the value is and thats where the scouting director should show his value.

Lets look at those 20 picks (the numbers are not the round, just the Jays order):

2020

1. Austin Martin
2. CJ Van Eyk
3. Trent Palmer
4. Nick Frasso
5. Zach Britton


2021

1. Gunnar Hoglund
2. Ricky Tiedemann
3. Chad Dallas
4. Irv Carter
5. Hayden Juenger

2022

1. Brandon Barriera
2. Josh Kasevich
3. Tucker Toman
4. Cade Doughty
5. Alan Roden


2023

1. Arjun Nimmala
2. Juaron Watts Brown
3. Landen Maroudis
4. Conor O'Halloran
5. Jace Bohrofen


I think that is a disappointing history and if there is a house clearing, it should go deeper than the GM. The farm is bare and poor drafting is one reason.

This is a reason for the fire sale, the farm needs replenishing.

That's what you get when you hire a nepo baby.

And a nepo baby of an absolute fraud manager, no less.

Mark Shapiro took over in Cleveland in 2001. The team had just won another division title; in the previous years it won the division 6 times and had never finished worse than second.

In the 14 years - 2002-2015 - he was GM, the Indians (hey, someone should do something about that name...not Shapiro though) they made the playoffs in the AL Central 2 times. They won the division ONE time and made the playoffs twice.

In the 9 years since Shapiro left Cleveland, they've changed the name, and have never finished worse than second one time. They won their division 5 times and are on pace for a sixth.

I don't know anything about Mark Shapiro the person, but his record in Cleveland is far and away the worst of the 3 people that have done the job in the last 30 years.

His is the head that should roll first.

Wow, Gerry. Thank you for that background work. It really does put things more into context. If some of the Jays media really want to turn the hot seat up on this front office into the stratosphere, they can start publishing content on the failures of these drafts.

Someone also may want to email a copy to Edward Rogers as well.

I believe Farrell was quite young when he was hired. Montoyo and Schneider had no MLB experience as managers.

Maybe the front office needs someone with a bit more experience in these key positions? Even Kevin Cash had some MLB coaching experience (for Cleveland under Terry Francona) before Tampa hired him as their manager.

lol what? Nepo hire? Quick, jettison Vlad and Bo because of Nepotism! They only got their chances because their father's worked in the industry! Same with Varsho and Horwitz and many many more... Entitled cheaters...

Bring back Gibbons. Easily the best jays manager since Cito. Not perfect by any means, but a very genuine and lkkeable dude, who was confident but never arrogant, smart enough to make all sorts of aggressive sabery-type moves but at the same time didn't overmanage or get stubborn with any of his choices. I'll always miss the gibber.

I didn't hate Montoyo so much he was just a bit of a non-entity and maybe not so clever, but at least he was a genuine dude who seemed to get his players going well.

Schneider actually reminds me very much of Farrell. Same type of blowhard wannabe-alphamale energy. Seem to think they're way cleverer than they are, which ends up making their decision making stubborn and defensive in addition to just plain bad.

Vlad, Bo, Varsho, Horwitz have clearly earned their way to the big leagues with their individual performances. Not sure what you mean.

You implied nepotism leads to bad performances ("that's what you get when you hire nepo babies.") Or is that a statement and opinion that applies to front offices but not players?

I just looked up the Yankees and Rays drafts from 2020 to 2023 and they aren't any more impressive except for 1 year from the Yankees with Dru Jones.

yes front office nepo baby hires definitely make me much more nervous than players who earned their way to the big based on their performance. Especially in this case where Shane Farrell had very little experience worthy of being named Scouting Director of an MLB team.

obviously

Shane Farrell does not make the decisions. How is that not obvious to you? Its Shapiro. Shane is 35 now. You really think a 29 year old was deciding budget and picks in 2019?

Farrell's first draft was 2020: Jays got 'lucky' and got Austin Martin in round 1 who they later flipped to get José Berríos (4.7 bWAR, 6.0 fWAR so far) which seems like it worked out. Martin reached this year and has 0.0 fWAR, -0.2 bWAR. CJ Van Eyk was round 2 and looks like a flop in AA. Trent Palmer in round 3 is getting beat up in AA as well. Nick Frasso (IL for all of 2024) round 4 traded to the Dodgers for Mitch White (flop), Alex De Jesus was also sent here but has just a 679 OPS in AA at 3B/SS this year at age 22. Zach Britton was round 5 now in AA with a 547 OPS as a C/DH, ugh.

So safe to say 2020's draft was a flop overall, but we did get 2 ML'ers (via trades) out of it, one quality one and one flop.

2021: Gunnar Hoglund traded as part of the Matt Chapman deal (a good deal in the end) - he was probably the key to the deal (others were Kevin Smith, Zach Logue, and Kirby Snead) but has a 3.20 ERA in AA at age 24 so his clock is ticking. Ricky Tiedemann was round 3 (round 2 lost due to signing Springer), Chad Dallas round 4, Hayden Juenger round 6, Trenton Wallace round 7 showing promise now, Riley Tirotta (12th) pounding the crap out of the ball this year 1.048 OPS over A-AA-AAA, Damiano Palmegiani (14th) has shown promise at times as well.

2022+2023: a few showing promise (Alan Roden for example) but too soon to judge.

That is the key - too soon to judge for 2022/23, 2021 still has potential for surprises. But what we do know is 2020 and 2021 gave us key pieces for 2 very important trades (Chapman & Berrios). I wouldn't panic about Shane Farrell - depending how much power he had over those drafts, the results aren't as bad as say, JPR's were (many near 0 for WAR produced) and we can't compare to Baltimore as they had top 5 picks 3 times in the past 5 years (2020/21/22) which is a MASSIVE advantage. Rays have negative WAR for those drafts, Yankees Austin Wells and a few negative guys, Red Sox nothing yet. Didn't check rankings in top 100's for those picks or who some might have been traded for but no one jumped out at me on a quick look.

There are a LOT of things to complain about, but the draft isn't a big one. Could they have been better drafts? Of course. In hindsight it is easy to say 'why didn't you take player xyz instead' but how many knew at the time ala the famous skipping over of Tulowitzki in 2005 for Ricky Romero (who wasn't a flop, but wasn't Tulo).

Farrell's drafting style could be best described as "taking the best player available on publicly available ranking sites". Almost all of those drafts have been received as positive at the time, partially because they have ended up getting players not expected to fall to them. But perhaps other teams are passing over those players for a reason.

It's certainly too early to know how good he actually is at his job. I will at least give him credit for trying to get more high ceiling guys than some of his predecessors. 2020 - Martin, Van Eyk, Frasso, all guys that had high upside. 2021 you get Hoglund where the trade-off risk is he was a consensus top 5 before TJ, and in the end he's dealt for Chapman. He's had a long recovery but is looking good in AA now, so good for him. 2022, Toman unfortunately is on his way to being a bust. Doughty and Kasevich were uninspiring, but they were signed to have the money to go after someone like Toman. 2023, four of our first five picks were all high upside.

So I don't know. Again, it's too early to tell. But I really don't mind his drafts on paper and they seem to have gotten better every year.

If anything, it feels our international signings have fallen well short in the past few years.

Haha, sorry John, guess I was typing all that out while you were posting.

Great minds think alike I guess. I need to fig into THE IFA but that is a bigger crap shoot with longer time frames. Moreno & Kirk were 2016 signings for next to nothing after all. A 2020+ signing could be a great player but we have no idea yet due to them still being in the low minors just starting to figure the basics while being too young to drink in Quebec.

Indeed. One of the things I've always been curious on that topic is why the Jays don't have two DSL teams (they did briefly many years ago). Almost half the MLB organizations have two, and many of those teams have had more consistent international pipelines.

Too be fair, the drafts under Farrell have been better than the ones under Steve Sanders.

2013
Phil Bickord
Clinton Hollon
Patrick Murphy
Evan Smith
Dan Lietz

2014
Jeff Hofman
Max Pentecost
Sean Reid-Foley
Nick Wells
Matt Morgan

2015
Jon Harris
Brady Singer (would have been a good pick but they didn't sign him.)
Justin Maese
Carl Wise
Jose Espeda

Checking out Horwitz's 2024 MLB offensive stats in his first 50 PA, everything looks elite except for his average exit velocity, bat speed and hard hit%.

Obviously he's off to a very fine start in his second go-around in the majors, hitting .366/.480/.561.

Pretty good 24th-round draft pick!

How unhappy would people be if Horwitz turned out to be the Blue Jays' Mark Grace? I imagine people poo-pooing his lack of first base power just as some poo-pooed on Johnny O. At least he's at second base now.

Coincidentally Grace was also a 24th-round pick. Unlike Horwitz he rocketed thru the minors.

"everything looks elite except for his average exit velocity, bat speed and hard hit%."

Unfortunately it seems this is all the FO cares about and likely why he sat in AAA for half the year.

How unhappy would people be if Horwitz turned out to be the Blue Jays' Mark Grace?

I suspect they wouldn't be unhappy at all. In fact, quite the opposite. Grace was a fairly reliable 4-WAR player. It should be noted that Horwitz is establishing himself at 26, not 24 like Grace, and that's not an inconsequential difference.

*completely missed 2020. 

Looks like the Jays could have a top 10 2025 draft pick - hopefully another FO will be making that pick - if Shapiro is still there, then it's the same FO even if Atkins is gone.

I could see Horwitz having a similar (but hopefully healthier) career to that of former Yankees/Nats first baseman Nick Johnson.

His at bat against Clase yesterday, he looked like Paul O'Neil of the '98 Yankees.

Now if you're too young to remember watching those Yankee teams, keep in mind every freaking at bat in the entire season was like that.

I should add, it wasn't just O'Neil it was everyone in the damn lineup...every night.

This season is a lot worse that what I expected. We probably run out of time to make the playoffs. Our before season good players could start playing well or V well. With the opportunity given, D Schneider, Horowitz, Barger and any others could turn out better than expected. This saves 2024 from being a horrible team at least.

With Baltimore fully rebuilt, KC & Detroit close to rebuilt, Boston (money) & Texas (has the strong farm & money), NYY & Seattle are at the top of their game, Minnesota & Cleveland seem good enough and TB is TB. That is 10 teams that can all contend as well or better than the Jays IMO. So we need a strong rebuild to get us into the group of better contenders. I don't know how to do that. IMO money this early is not going to get us into the better contender group. So I am not going to seriously follow the J Soto sweepstakes. Also I will just wait for Bo/Vlad to be sorted out.

I expect a lot of discussion on what to do and how going forward.

"Unfortunately it seems this is all the FO cares about and likely why he sat in AAA for half the year."

Thats not fair. He has Vlad ahead of him, who is strong defensively and should play every day. He also had Turner (who started off hot) playing DH and Vogelbach as the lefty pinch hitter.

So no room at the inn.

The suggestion he should have been on the team since the spring is a lot of 20/20 hindsight.

In fact, its likely the chance to play every day in AAA and to get some reps at 2B likely will enhance his career. Trying to scrape out some AB here and there like Clement isnt good for development.

what's the deal with the TV presentation this year? you can't see balls in the corners and they don't seem to cut to the right angle live. there's a bunch of presentation gripes i have, but that one just seems odd for a newly renovated stadium.

It's not about if there was room for him (he's playing 2B btw not 1B or DH). It's about how baseball in general and especially this FO is obsessed with analytics like bat speed and exit velocity for hitters instead of results. It's why guys like Kwan and Arraez are often overlooked and undervalued yet critical types of players to successful teams. Same thing with the pitching side...give a 5 year deal to a pitcher who hasn't pitched in a year from Cuba because his spin rate is elite. Don't worry about the fact it may take a year or two to get him to 100 pitches and teach him how to pitch.

I'm not sure Horwitz would have been ready to play second base in the majors at the start of the season.

(And I'm someone who has been tracking Horwitz for a while now. Last July I wrote that "Horwitz is more valuable than ever" and "If the Jays can find a way to use Horwitz as a sometime starter and bench bat against RHP, they could really have something.")

The player that Horwitz reminds me of at the plate is Rance Mullinicks. His stance and his plate approach are so similar. And before you take that as a slight, have a look at Mullinicks' best years - medium range pop (without HR power), excellent contact skills and fabulous strike zone control. It all added up to a career 109 wRC+ but in his prime he was a a very solid 120-125 wRC+ player. Its an offensive profile that will play at any position and in any age of baseball.

You likely can't see balls in the corner of the Dome because the corners are not visible, even if you have one of the best seats in the house right behind home plate. Bizzare way to renovate the stadium.

If they were obsessed with bat speeds and exit velocity they would not have signed Turner.
Generally, the bar is high to play first base and Guerrero is already there.
Who brings a kid up to play DH? It took some creativity to play him at 2B.
They also given Biggio yet another chance.

Horwitz's exit velocity is average.

Let's look at the Orioles.
Yes. Rutschman #1 pick overall is doing great.
Henderson, fantastic second round pick is also doing great.
Westberg, great supplemental pick is doing great too.
The rest of the lineup are vets.
Mountcastle, Mateo, Mullins, Santander and O'Hearn.

They brought up Jackson Holliday, Kyle Stowers, Heston Kjerstad and Connor Norby and none of them stuck because they didn't hit.
Austin Hays, at 28, is on the bench because of a low .703 OPS.

Meanwhile we keep rolling guys with OPS under .600 every day.
If I was the manage I would bench those guys.

@soupman - this is something I brought up in another thread too. The presentation quality is just rough. The cuts to the wrong angle and zoom cuts have been something they've been doing since 2022 but it's gotten worse with the new renos.

Some of us just want to watch the damn ball game! ;)

Farrell's record is fine to my eye.
Gunnar Hoglund is looking great now, clearly the key piece in the trade for Chapman.  That was good drafting, and Frasso too - not his fault he was the prize in a lopsided trade. 

Tirotta could be the next Barger, an unheralded guy who forces his way onto the prospect rankings. 
 2022 has some upside, big bonus busts, but the low ceiling, high floor, under-slot guys like Roden, Brock, Juenger, Kasevich and Fluharty could actually be good supporting players.  14th rounder Sammy Hernandez brought back Genesis Cabrera.
I can't call 23 yet, but really liked the Nimmala pick. 

Those Steve Sanders drafts sure were terrible.  Even worse without Jeff Hoffman's late-career emergence as a relief ace. 

Love the Rance Mulliniks comp for Horwitz, which seems more apt than my Davis Schneider.  
Horwitz should have made the team ahead of Vogelbach, or if the team was genuinely worried about his readiness, Lukes - he isn't missing out on development time at his age.   Vogelbach was a camp invite, but once you add him to the roster and give him his guarantee, you punt all the flexibility of the 26th spot with a stacked AAA team. 

Even if he had hit, I think it's poor roster management, especially on a team this committed to flexibility. 

i like to watch away feeds, but i will admit that i generally think dan and buck's more pastoral approach to calling games is top tier.

i think there are some league wide problems. one obvious one is how ground balls are filmed. a ball on a ground instantiates a mad dash against the infield. we often pan away from the runner and the viewer needs to make guesses about where they are and how fast they are going. in my view, it would be akin to watching the olympic 100m final and as soon as the gun goes off, panning to the finish line.

just like baseball needed a bit of a revolution in how the game was analyzed, i think it is now overdue in a revamp on how it is presented. they might take notes from the NFL that was somewhat pushed into improving its presentation by the XFL's innovations of things like overhead cameras.

it's symptomatic of my most general criticism of this front office. 'no one else is doing that, so why should we bother/risk it' - but when you apply it to things that carry virtually zero risk...why not? obviously this is just one thing, but i'm always hard pressed to figure out a single thing that the Jays are doing that makes them unique.

Well put, Soupman. MLB has always been slow to change, conservative, but you figure at some point they would have revolutionized the camera angles/broadcasts at some point.

Money has prevented them from doing lots of things that would help grow/regrow the game. That one seems easy.

How many losses before heads roll?

At the end of last season, what is happening is predictable.... Ok, not this bad. The farm is almost bare and one of the top guys coming up is suspended for 80 days. We have 1 year of Vlady and Bichette left.

I am cheering for them to lose and lose bad so the fire from the top down. We can then get someone in place to dismantle everything properly. I don't trust this regime.

on the topic of Horwitz it's kinda funny what a massive contrast his swing is to Barger's. Horwitz pretty much refuses to take all out big swings, while that's all Barger does.

I'm a little bit iffy on Barger's future tbh.

I can visualize an offensive profile for Barger similar to Varsho - low average, middling strike zone control but what he hits he hits hard. Its an offensive profile where it is very hard to achieve anything above league average as we are seeing from Varsho. But, whereas Varsho brings plus defence and the whole package works, I don't see Barger having a defensive position he can play well. I think its RF or bust for Barger and I'm not sure his range makes that a promising position for him. Early days yet though. I'd like to see him get near full time ABs for the rest of the season in order to see what's there.

Yeah that tracks.