Encarnacion: signed for 2014/2015 option for 2016 - $9/$10/$10 with $2 mil buyout of 2016
Bautista: signed for 2014/2015 option for 2016 - $14/$14/$14 with $1 mil buyout for 2016

Surprised how close those deals are - identical length but $8 mil more guaranteed, potentially $13 mil more over all for Bautista. Bautista is 2 years older than Encarnacion and is coming off an injury year. If I had to pick I'd probably send Bautista away if the return was identical to save the cash and gain the 2 years age difference.  Plus I wouldn't miss the tantrums he has thrown.

Would hate to trade either, but that would be my choice.  Rasmus and Lind would be much, much higher on my trade list due to likelihood of repeating 2013.

I would move neither.
The top 3 OPS numbers from this year are all in the playoffs.  I don't understand the trade a leg for an arm approach.  The Jays were 11th in OPS...while respectable there still needs to be some improvement there as well as pitching (catcher anyone?).  As far as trading chips go, I fear that the Jays are thin at most positions and a trade is going to be quite difficult unless we are eating goofy contracts from teams that have sobered up.
I'd like to see the acquisition of some free agents and some development from our younger players....and oh ya, a calisthenics program for the team would be nice as well.
What I would like is to see a QO given to Johnson rather than try to woo folks who might not come here.  If he turns it down (which he won't) we'll get a pick for him.
#1 Free Agent target should be a catcher....Saltalamacchia or Navarro...pitching...I like Hudson and his sinker in the Skydome.

Would require a better return than the named pitchers for either Bautista or Encarnation, if trading them in the off season. The Jays should wait to see what they have in Morrow, Hutchison, Jenkins, Drabek and MacGowan before they look to trade either of their top hitting prospects. That's not to say they shouldn't be looking for help in the starting rotation.

Have been wondering if a different catcher might help the starting pitching.

Top power hitters. Sorry about that!

Trading neither.... Lind, Arencibia, Rasmus, Cabrerra, Izturis and pretty much any relief pitcher long before Ed or Jose.

The choice is easy, trade Jose Bautista before he loses his near-prime (still very,very good) value. Although that might not be the person another G.M. might want.

Trading Edwin Encarnacion is much harder, although he's a prime value asset. He'll get a frontline Starter in return.

Pitching will get you to the postseason with enough hitting. It doesn't matter how much hitting you have without good enough Pitching.

You don't get something for nothing, any more. Value for value is the new currency.

Adam Lind has no trade value. J.P. Arencibia has negative trade value. Colby Rasmus has good value, but it's nowhere good enough. Melky Cabrera and Maicer have no trade value.

That's why most posters on this site have no value as a G.M., no matter how valued their opinion is.

Pretty much concur with Ceebee.  I wouldn't trade Rasmus though.

I would not place much priority on "getting a #2 starter".  Yes, the organization could probably use a starting pitcher if Johnson is not returning (at least at the outset of the season).  I am not convinced that aiming to acquire the "proven quality starter" is the way to go.

You need both Richard.  It's simplistic to say that good pitching devoid of hitting will win.  There are two numbers in a score and both need to be seen to.  You need to trade from depth (like AA did last year), however, the depth is no longer there with the exception of perhaps CF.  As far as having value as a GM, I would say that without the front office experience, no one on this site does, including my or you.

Mike's convinced me that the primary areas this teams needs to improve are not pitching. They need better offence and defence from LF, C, and 2b. Those would be my priority, and I wouldn't trade either of Bautista or Encarnacion to improve those positions.

JPA would have a bit, given he is just starting arbitration but not a lot of value (ie: he wouldn't hurt). Lind is probably a mild value, but not enough to do anything. Cabrera and Maicer are big time negatives - you trade them to clear $$$ but only works if you get less in return for a trade involving a better asset or you are getting salary/headaches in return.

No question the most valuable piece that could be practically be traded is Rasmus right now imo. Lawrie has value but I don't see any situation where the Jays trade him unless it was a pure rip off trade. Bautista has value, but it is dropping as he ages and trading him has to bring a significant return to avoid AA having serious questions asked of him from higher ups. Encarnacion is limited due to being a 1B/DH who can play 3B in emergencies.  Janssen has the 'closer magic', while Cecil and Delabar might have value due to the ASG and general talent but due to being relievers it also is limited. Same for others in the pen (Loup, McGowan, Santos) although McGowan and Cecil both have potential bonus value to a club that thinks they can convert them back to starters (hard to capture that extra value in a trade though).

There are pieces, but it is hard to see a match that will bring a high end 2B or CA or starting pitcher without some 'ninja magic' happening.

I said: "Pitching will get you to the postseason WITH ENOUGH HITTING." I then said: "It doesn't matter how much hitting you have without good enough pitching." Please be more accurate.

I find it strange that with just Kevin Pillar and Ryan Goins added, this Team improve immensely defensively. This Team needs healthy people who have practised the fundamentals regularly.

I think a healthy Melky Cabrera will be good enough in LF, and I'm willing to try Ryan Goins at 2B. Catching would become the # 2 priority.

The #1 PRIORITY is Starting Pitching. R.A. Dickey and Mark Buehrle are the only two Starters on this Team who have consistently pitched 200 + innings. Dickey was hurt a good portion of the season. He took most of the season to figure out how to pitch at the Rogers Center/Sky Dome. He still won 14 games a on a bad (?????) team. I expect Dickey to win 17 - 20 games next year. Buehrle is a traditionally slow starter. He was reported to be incapable of pitching in the A.L. East - news to me. He won 12 games for his 12th time in 13 seasons and pitched 200 or more innings for 13 seasons. I expect him to repeat, as he always does.

For the rest, who is good enough the be Starter in the postseason? No one. No one else has the consistency this Team needs. Until that improves, nothing will change.

You add two quality starters to Dickey and Buehrle, you'll not have any trouble signing Free Agents. Fifth Starter and two Bullpen positions for 6th and 7th Starters will be filled in-house. The rest are in AAA or on another Team. You don't have to agree, because people normally don't. I think I have a better read on the needs that can make a difference.

Good news from one reporter - Greg Chisholm claims that AA see catcher as the #2 priority behind another starting pitcher and either tied or ahead of second base.  They suggest JPA will be gone if a replacement is found as they figure he wouldn't do well as a backup.

Putting up a legitimate #3 and/or #4 to get a decent starting pitcher is a step backwards imo.  Would it be easier to obtain a #3 starter or a home run champ?  Legitimate aces are not to be found because of their rarity.  As for starting pitching, I am all for adding the type that don't cost us the core of our offense.  If you lose EE and/or Joey Bats the offense will tank.
I'm also against trading Rasmus...considering he's the only left handed power bat that can be counted on to stay somewhat healthy in a right-handed skewed lineup.

Regardless of how he pitches tonight, I would approach Detroit for Doug Fister.

The Tigers have a great front 3 in Verlander, Scherzer and Sanchez.  They have a good #5 in Porcello and they have Drew Smyly ready to slide into the #4 spot after starting in 2012 and relieving in 2013.  They also have 24 year old Jose Alvarez who had a 2.80 ERA and 4:1 K:BB in AAA.  Presumably there are other prospects (Casey Crosby?) and there's always free agency if they felt Smyly should stay in the pen.

In return for Fister I would offer 3 of our better relievers.
1 of our 2 closers (Janssen or Santos)
1 of our 2 lefties (Cecil or Loup)
1 of our 2 swingmen (Rogers or Redmond)

That's quite a lot to pay, but Fister is a very good pitcher and we are dealing from strength in that it helps us avoid losing a couple of arms due to 25-man roster crunch.  At the same time I think the Tigers could give up an arm and would be much improved with a tighter bullpen.

He was reported to be incapable of pitching in the A.L. East - news to me.

His ERA against the AL East was 5.10, broken down as follows:
Boston 3.31
New York 5.04
Tampa Bay 5.76
Baltimore 8.16

I think the relievers are the expendable pieces. At the end of the rotation you have Nolin, Drabek, Hutch, Stroman fighting it out and the guys who lose the starting gigs can probably above average relievers as is. Heck even Morrow could be moved to the bullpen....

Shaker, I don't really think that offer's that great - I suspect you could get a nice reliever plus a prospect for Fister.

I love the idea of a trade for Fister.

The numbers indicate that he's quite an extreme ground ball pitcher with a low HR rate, which fits at Rogers Centre. Gives up quite a few hits but very low walk rate. Has shown durability in the past with 2 seasons of 200+ innings(including 208 in 2013 as the Tigers #4). He's exactly the type of pitcher the Jays need. If the Jays could land two starters with Fister's profile, and Brandon Morrow is healthy as the #5, they could definitely win.

However it seems they might have to overpay in trade, as his price would be steep considering the dearth of free agent starters this winter.

The problem for the jays is that once you go 'all in' as they did last year, it's hard to put the toothpaste back in the tube.

Last year Toronto made its deals. They obtained Johnson and Buerhle to solidify the rotation, and to put them over the top they traded for Dickey. They picked up Reyes in the Marlins deal with Bonifacio, and signed Pedster Melky Cabrera to a two year deal. They gave up just about everything they could trade with a hope of winning a title.

We've seen how it played out. Some of it was predictable, like the stupidity of the Cabrera signing, which was as though he had done PED's and risked his income to do something other than inflate his performance. Some of it in retrospect was hasty, like going all in with the Dickey trade without first seeing how close they were. Some of it worked about as well as could be predicted like Buehrle (and Dickey in my view), some of it only slightly worse like Reyes, and some of it went as wrong as could be imagined, like Johnson. They also ended up giving away Bonifacio though he wasn't a major player.

The explanation at the time was that they wanted to imitate Boston's Ortiz/Ramirez success while Encarnacion and Bautista are in their prime. It makes little sense then, to trade the two cornerstones of your team when the rest of the parts you added didn't work.

Last year set the team. If the team is going to be in contention, and that's an unlikely prospect after finishing last with 73 wins, then it's going to largely result from the same players who couldn't win last year winning next. If you can add players to help that project along, it's surely not going to be at the expense of trading any of the major players like Encarnacion and Bautista. Rasmus can likely do more for you than you're likely to get for him and Lind has little trade value. Cecil and Janssen have a bit of trade value but I think you'd likely end up with a worse team once you saw the return and the weaker bullpen.

There might be a mediocre starter they can oversign, or a mediocre catcher, but the only players that are going to win it for Toronto are the ones who failed so abysmally last year, except perhaps Johnson who may not be here but in my view they may as well keep.

From what I can see the best method is to sign guys who won't cost anything but cash (as MLB has given every club over $20 mil extra to play with this year and for the foreseeable future) such as the latest Japanese pitcher (Masahiro Tanaka) or a few 2nd tier free agents to cover CA/2B.  Pitchers are expensive and the only way to get top quality ones is to draft, overpay in a trade, or find a miracle if you won't pay over $20 mil a year over 5 years it seems.

I'm not sure where to post this but the Arizona Fall League opened yesterday and Kenny Wilson went 3 for 4 with a stolen base and a caught stealing. Marcus Stroman pitched a clean inning.

Did you say Jose or EE for a #2 starter?

 

Not good enough. Jose should bring a #1 starter. If he doesn't, it is not a good enough deal.

I'm okay with trading anyone in the organization in the right deal but I think  ComebyDeanChance is pretty spot on in his analysis - it's going to have to be largely the team from last year that hopefully rebounds - I will be in the minority, but I would take a chance on Brian Roberts & Jason Hammel on incentive deals - I don't see a quality controllable pitcher the team can acquire unless it's the Japanese pitcher. 

The problem with groundball pitchers in Toronto is that the Jays infield defence isn't great. The problem with flyball pitchers in Toronto is that every second outfield fly is a home run at SkyDome. The Jays need to do more than just add to their rotation; they need to figure out what to do about infield defence at every position other than third base. Second base is covered if they can find a shortstop and Reyes is willing to move to second. If there's any way to do it without bruising egos, I'd see if Goins' defensive play at short can carry his bat. I'm not convinced about Encarnacion or Lind at 1st, but I guess that's the least of the team's problems at this point.

Regarding Stroman in the AFL last night a few tweets about his performance from some notable people:

‏@BerniePleskoff
#BlueJays Marcus Stroman came as advertised tonight. Good velocity, good breaking balls and good command. Threw strikes. Got ahead in counts

@keithlaw
Marcus Stroman (@MStrooo7) just threw an inning, 94-96, with a slider, cutter, and even a good change

A wild prediction on the issue of starting pitchers. Chad Jenkins will have a better year than Josh Johnson in 2014.

I'm of the ilk that you look to spend cash (versus trade) and focus on the international market for upgrades if possible. As noted above, I'd target someone such as Japanese pitcher (Masahiro Tanaka) and Cuban second-baseman/shortstop Alexander Guerrero, ideally.

Unless the pitcher's name is Kershaw I'm trading neither of those guys- and when you factor in contracts I'm not sure I make that move even then. Pitching is way too unstable (see Johnson, Josh) to risk giving up our middle of the order power. Beyond that I do feel that replacing JPA will have a significant, positive impact on our pitching staff although I'd still like another arm.

As I mentioned before, I'm comfortable slotting in an innings eater behind Dickey and Buerhle: I mentioned a few names in the Johnson thread (Bronson Arroyo, Paul Maholm, Scott Feldman, Jake Westbrook, jason vargas) all of those guys would have provided stability last season and Feldman even has experience pitching in bandboxes and in the AL East.

Personally I feel like we are better off with Edwin + Jason Vargas than Cliff Lee + Marlon Byrd. Now if it is Edwin + Jason Vargas vs Cliff Lee + Robinson Cano then I obviously change my tune, but I doubt this is the case.

i think they should stand pat on the rotation, maybe take a flier on an injury riddled ace and sign them to an incentive-laden deal. there are enough 'mid-rotation upside' guys that i don't know why the jays aren't due for the wily luck dragon to throw at least one them a bone next year.

I agree with spending on the international talent (Tanaka, Guerrero, Abreu) rather than the trade market. The Jays have to realize that once last off-season happened, they couldn't maintain a similar payroll going forward. Payroll was going to escalate due to backloaded contracts and improving the team from there was not going to be from internal development or the trade market because both of those avenues were sacrificed with all the assets traded to Miami and New York.

So do what the Dodgers did. Spend until it clicks. If not, then trade Bautista and Encarnacion for prospects and do what you advertised 4 years ago (internal development, trying to build a team that can win for 10 years, etc).

I'd guess the Jays have up to $20 mil this winter, if you factor in letting Johnson go (or signing cheaply) with a shot at $40 mil if the Jays are aggressive. This is based on getting $20 mil more from US TV and the jump in attendance/TV ratings that occurred plus what one could assume would occur in 2014 if the team does well or appears to be doing well (which is what sold tickets last winter).

If $20 mil then I'd say blow 1/2 on Tanaka and 1/2 on Guerrero or Abreu ... if you get Abreu then trade Lind (if possible) and use the cash to find someone who can play solid defense at 2B and hit reasonably well even if injury prone and use Goins as the backup with Kawasaki as your AAA SS/2B who is used during DL time for Reyes/2B as a backup in the majors while Goins goes in everyday in those cases.  Risky, no doubt, but if you get Tanaka, Guerrero or Abreu then you get that player for 6 years (7 if you send down at any point for 2+ weeks iirc).

If $40 mil then look at top free agents and guys who have contracts their teams don't want to pay but have solid assets.  Teams like Philly (Chase Utley at 2B, Jimmy Rollins at SS who might be moveable to 2B, and would give up anything to get rid of Ryan Howard and that insane contract) and the Mets (although I don't see any bad contracts right now there) and Miami (no one there who is expense...highest paid last year was Adeiny Hechavarria).  Hrm...the NL East is on a contract diet it seems.  Other clubs with albatross contracts they might want to dump that also have a 2B/CA/SP that the Jays would want?

Definitely don't trade either Jose or Edwin. Instead, sign Pierzynski as a free agent catcher, and trade JPA, Sierra,  and a reliever  to Seattle (who need a catcher, outfield and relief help) for a good young pitcher like Paxton. Re-sign Johnson to an incentive-laden one year contract, hope Morrow is healthy, and go after Tanaka.

It all boils down to money. From my perspective, I'm hopeful the may actually have turned into a legitimate spender. As has been discussed here at length, there are many sides to the issue of "revenue stream" for this team. Most of which point to the "Rogers makes so much money off the team from your below market tv deal/internet/mlb payments/etc." that there is NO reason for them to not be plowing money into the organization.

We should be able to send an Izturis to Buffalo without blinking. In business terms, Rogers should view team salary as a loss leader that pays for itself many times over in additional revenue created elsewhere.

Let's hope Rogers has realized it needs to spend big for more than just one year if it is serious about this whole thing. Without the ability to absorb bad contracts and benefit from their immense resources, we're destined to mediocrity at best. They should take advantage of the fact that MLB is the only league without a cap, and double down. Spend bucks on the Japanese pitcher and one of the above mentioned foreign position players. Start there, and then try to add Fister (or other #2-3 pitcher) for some combination of our available parts - JPA, excess good relievers, borderline outfielders, arms much further down, etc. I'd also be ok with an infield defence of Goins, Reyes and Lawrie if we can't find a 2B that fits.

Let's hope they spend. Simple as that.

Rotorose, I doubt JPA/Sierra/Reliever would get anything of value let alone Paxton.  JPA and Sierra would be throw in's to finish off a trade most likely (especially JPA) while relievers have little value most of the time.  To get Paxton (or any good young starter) it would take a lot more.

With all this money wasted on player salaries, it's a real shame the team can't spend some money to pry a Beane or a Friedman away from their current assignments by throwing a boatload of cash at them. Beane might be a tough sell as Boston couldn't pull it off a few years ago, but maybe Friedman would like to see what he could do with a major league payroll.

I guess the shine has come off the Anthopoulos regime for me. If someone like Beane or Friedman came here and failed at his job, at least my question wouldn't be whether the GM knew what he was doing. I'm tired of wondering if the GM knows what he's doing, and I've been doing it for the last ten years now.

Heck, if I was in control of a ML team I'd be raiding all of Tampa's front office. From Friedman to RJ Harrison (director of scouting) as I'd figure their scouting must be top notch given the quality of player they get for next to nothing.  Cot's has Maddon signed through 2015 but no idea on the rest as to how long they are signed for.  Of course, sometimes a GM who is great with no budget has trouble with a big one (thinking of hockey with Glen Sather viewed as a great one in Edmonton but flopped in NY).

Wonder if the Jays can steal a coach or two from Tampa to fill the open slots?

Beane owns part of the team, he's not going anywhere.

SK in NJ:
"So do what the Dodgers did. Spend until it clicks. If not, then trade Bautista and Encarnacion for prospects and do what you advertised 4 years ago (internal development, trying to build a team that can win for 10 years, etc)."

This.

If the former option is picked:

* Buy international, with Tanaka a priority. There's no way to really get that level of talent without huge performance hits elsewhere, so just sign him. Whatever it takes. Muni is already here to help with the adjustment, make him an ambassador.

* Sign Carlos Ruiz. If JPA doesn't want to be a backup catcher, too bad.

* With Chooch behind the plate, I can live with Goins at SS/2nd.

* Defense just got a lot better. Now trade for Fister, because Tanaka will have an adjustment period.

* Lind's option is cheap. Exercise it, then trade him to SF, who are looking for 1B help. Look for a young catcher in their system, trapped behind Posey.

* Keep an eye peeled for possible 2nd base/ SS options.

If $40 mil then look at top free agents and guys who have contracts their teams don't want to pay but have solid assets.  Teams like Philly (Chase Utley at 2B, Jimmy Rollins at SS who might be moveable to 2B, and would give up anything to get rid of Ryan Howard and that insane contract)

While this idea has some merit, what would we do with Ryan Howard? AFAIK he only plays 1B, and last year, he hit worse than Adam Lind did (both against lefties and righties). Yes, for his career, he's about 120 points of OPS higher than Adam Lind (including all of Lind's "bad" years). RHP/LHP OPS+ splits (career) are 996/728 vs 850/603 for Lind.

The problem with Howard is: he hasn't had a year at or above his "career" numbers since 2009. He'll be 34 next year. The last 2 years he hasn't played more than half a season, if that. His last "great" year was 2009 - the same year Adam Lind had his great year (and Lind outhit him slightly that year). So they've had the same number of "good" years in the last 5. Lind's just been a bit worse in his down years. So, buy out Lind for $2M, trade for Utley/Rollins + Howard - how cheaply would we get that pair? You'd be eating at least $15-20M/year on Howard - he hasn't had a WAR above 1.6 in the last 4 years..

Add in $11M for Rollins or $15M for Utley, and we've blown (nearly) ALL of our $40M increase just to get one good player on the infield and tread water at 1st.

For $40M, I'd rather throw a pile of $$ at one or more of Cano/Pierzynski/Beltran/Kelly Johnson.

vw_fan17 - agreed on that with Howard - I just presented him as a horrid contract that they'd do anything to get rid of. If the Jays took that on I'd expect a few of their top young players to come with Howard such as Domonic Brown who the Jays badly wanted at one time and had a 123 OPS+ in LF last year, or one of the aces (Lee, Hamels).  Howards contract is an anvil and to lift it up it would take a LOT and I didn't mean to say it would make sense to take it on plus those other deals. I was more saying all 3 are probably overpaid (Utley the only one doing well) and thus Philly would gladly dump them in a deal.  I'd say that would be a plan C or D with the A plan being to get the prime free agents (be they MLB or Cuban) or the top Japanese talent, B being a trade for a quality young player or two, and then C being to take on a bad contract to get a good player (ie: take on Howard to get Brown although I'd demand more than just Brown in that type of deal).

It sounds like John Farrell, Brian Butterfield and Torey Lovullo have been reading the King James version of the baseball Bible daily.  The commandments:

1. Thou shalt not give away outs
2. Thou shalt not judge others based on small sample sizes
3. Thou shalt be flexible in all thy endeavours
4. Thou shalt useth the ace reliever in high leverage situations
5. Thou shalt knoweth the chance of each batting outcome and acteth accordingly

Maybe Lovullo could ask out of Boston saying that Toronto was always his dream job. Maybe John Gibbons uses this kind of data in this kind of way,but I've never heard this kind of thinking come out of his mouth. To ignore this kind of data in 2013 is just sad.

"and that's an unlikely prospect after finishing last with 73 wins, then it's going to largely result from the same players who couldn't win last year winning next."

Funny, that sounds amazingly like a team playing in the AL Division Championship series.

Options remaining are going to play a big role this coming off season.  Who has run out?  McGowan, Lincoln, Jeffress, both Perez's,  Rogers ... can we still option Romero, Happ, Wagner, Redmond, Sierra?  JPA, Thole, Wagner? 

I would assume the team will keep Mcgowan and Rogers.  Lincoln, Jeffress and Luis Perez will have to be good in the spring and there's not enough space for all of them, even before any off-season additions. 

is there a good website resource for options years? 

Heard on PTS podcast on Monday night, Brunt was saying that from what he's hearing Bautista's being traded. I don't have anything more on that.

If you hear about it then it will not happen.

If you hear about it then it will not happen

This was disproved last year, wasn't it? There was plenty of talk about the Dickey trade before it happened, and details of the Miami deal leaked at least a week before the trade became official.

Anthopoulos can try to run a tight ship, but he doesn't have magic powers. The bigger the deal, and the longer it takes, the more likely people are going to talk.

It is easy to imagine a trade of Bautista.  As good as he is, he is getting up there in age (entering his age 33 season this year) and has been injured a lot. His position in one of the few the Jays have alternatives with (the 3 kid outfielders) and he has significant bonus value with the contract he is on.  If the Jays could get a young 2B and a high level starting pitcher (ideally a couple more prospects too) then it would be hard to resist.  If you could pry Jurickson Profar out of Texas (a 20 year old last year who had a 76 OPS+ -7.1 UZR/150 at 2B and a high + at 3B, slight negative at SS) then I'd do it.  Doubt Texas would, but can dream.  A team that just barely missed the playoffs (well, had a 1 game playoff they lost that counted as regular season) often will do trades they wouldn't otherwise do.

Richard:

I think Brunt heard it from McCown.  Bob has been on that bandwagon for a while.