Sons of Steve Garvey

Fri 8.30 6.30p: Kershaw vs. Gallen
Sat 8.31 5p: Stone vs. Kelly
Sun 9.1 1p: TBD vs. Pfaadt
Mon 9.2 1p: Flaherty vs. Rodriguez

The Dodgers are four games ahead of the Diamondbacks going into this series, with the Diamondbacks ripping it up of late. Arizona has scored the most runs of any team in the majors (714), well ahead of the Dodgers' fourth-place run total of 662 (behind the Yankees and Orioles). That said, the Dodgers had a four-game divisional lead on Arizona on August 1...and still have a four-game divisional lead on the Snakes on August 30. So at least we have kept pace.

The Dodgers are 4-5 against the Snakes this year, including 2-1 at Chase Field. This is the last time we'll face the Diamondbacks this year. If we can even come away with a split, I'll be content.

Tues 7.2 7p: Miller vs. Nelson
Wed 7.3 7p: Stone vs. Montgomery
Thu 7.4 6p: Knack vs. Gallen

In Wednesday's matchup, the Dodgers face Jordan Montgomery, one of the 2023 Texas Rangers' playoff heroes (3-1 over six starts with a 2.90 ERA), who then went to free agency looking for a long-term deal. That deal didn't happen, and Montgomery ended up settling for a one-year, $25M deal with the Diamondbacks in late March. Right after signing the contract, Montgomery left agent Scott Boras for Wasserman Sports Entertainment.

And, similar to his fellow Boras-represented pitcher Blake Snell, the truncated spring training workout period did not do Montgomery any favors. He is 6-5 this year with a 6.03 ERA, which gives him a -1.2 WAR for the season. (Snell, who signed a one-year deal with the Giants, has a -1.1 WAR, a 9.51 ERA, and is on the injured list.)

Montgomery has been frustrated enough to beat up a pitchcom machine in the dugout, earlier this year. MLB.com reported on his mounting frustration in early June 2024. Will Montgomery just be a powder keg waiting to erupt on Wednesday? Will this be grounds for July 3 fireworks?!

Anyway, these Snakes were pesky as hell last year, but at beginning of play on Tuesday, they are 10.5 games behind the Dodgers and two games below .500. We did just drop our series to the sub-.500 Giants last weekend, though, so I'm not feeling especially good about this one.

UPDATE: After all that Montgomery research, the Snakes have scratched his Wednesday start.

Another reason to hate the Diamondbacks.

Mon 5.20: Yoshinobu Yamamoto 4-1, 3.21) vs. Joe Mantiply (2-1, 4.67)
Tue 5.21: Gavin Stone (4-1, 3.27) vs. Brandon Pfaadt (1-3, 4.17)
Wed 5.22: Tyler Glasnow (6-2, 2.90) vs. Ryne Nelson (2-3, 7.06)
All games 7p

James Outman, the Dodgers center fielder who finished third in last year's NL Rookie of the Year voting, was demoted to the minors this past weekend. Outman is batting .147 with an OPS of .516 (OPS+ 48), and a bWAR of -0.6, which is awful. The kid definitely has promise but he needs regular at bats, and with the return of Jason Heyward off the IL, that wasn't going to happen in the majors.

Outman is by no means the worst offender in the Dodgers bottom of the lineup, by the way--but that's another topic for another day.

But you know who's not much better than Outman? 2023 NL Rookie of the Year winner Corbin Carroll, still batting leadoff of the Diamondbacks despite similarly slumpy sophomore numbers. Carroll is batting .191 with a OPS of .552 (OPS+ 60), and a bWAR of -0.1, which is also no place for a leadoff hitter to be.

I'm hoping that both Carroll and Outman can turn it around. At least they've been on the field in 2024; the Mets' Kodai Senga, who finished second in ROY voting last year, hasn't pitched this season, sidelined by a shoulder injury. Yikes!

The Dodgers are 2-1 this year against the Diamondbacks, who are in fourth place, nine games behind the Dodgers (the .500 Padres are in second place, 7.5 GB). Arizona was predicted to do well this season, coming off their World Series run last year.

DODGERS 8, DIAMONDBACKS 0

After a dispiriting game Tuesday, with the Dodgers dropping a 4-3 decision in extras after a two-hour delay on the start time due to a swarm of bees, it was the Dodgers who got the last laugh in the series, winning tonight's rubber match (which started on time and was pest-free), 8-0.

Diamondbacks ace Jordan Montgomery was slated to start the Tuesday game, but the Snakes' bee delay shifted his start to Wednesday against Yoshinobu Yamamoto. That shift wasn't good for Montgomery, who lasted only 3.0 IP and gave up 6 ER, including an onslaught second inning where eight Dodgers tacked on five runs: two on a Andy Pages HR; one on an Austin Barnes double, and two more on a 2-RBI Mookie Betts single.

No, that wasn't a typo: the bottom five in our lineup actually showed up today, with each person scoring a run today (actually, the entire Dodgers lineup each scored a run, save leadoff hitter Mookie Betts). The bottom five looked like this:

5: K Hernandez: 0-for-2 with 3 BB, 1 K
6: Pages: 1-for-5 with 3 Ks but a 2-run HR
7: Rojas: 2-for-4 with an RBI and a BB
8: Taylor: 1-for-2 with an RBI and 2 BB
9: Barnes: 1-for-4 with an RBI and 1 K

Yamamoto had a great outing: 6.0 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 2 BB and 5 Ks. The Dodgers' staff notched 7 Ks, so free Jumbo Jacks will be distributed tomorrow!

The Dodgers, following a difficult homestand, win all three series and go 7-2 on this roadtrip. Day off tomorrow, then a big series at home vs. the Braves this weekend!

Mon 4.29: James Paxton (2-0, 2.61) vs. Tommy Henry (1-1. 5.55)
Tues 4.30: Landon Knack (1-1, 3.27) vs. Jordan Montgomery (1-1, 2.77)
Wed 5.1: Yoshinobu Yamamoto (2-1, 3.54) vs. TBD
All times 6.40p first pitch

Jordan Montgomery played a big role helping the Texas Rangers win their first World Series last year, by beating the Diamondbacks. In 2023, Montgomery went 3-1 across six games, and though the loss came against the Snakes in WS Game 2, he had 17 Ks in 31 IP and was a big reason why the Rangers kept advancing through the 2023 playoffs. After an off-season standoff in which a long-term deal did not materialize, Montgomery ended up signing with the Diamondbacks in late March for one year, $25M (with player options for subsequent years): well under the $100-150M multi-year projections that had been floated.

And then Montgomery fired agent Scott Boras and went with Wasserman Sports soon thereafter.

So this now becomes an important year for the 31-year-old, as Montgomery has to again show his value in the hopes of signing a long-term deal at year's end. He beat Blake Snell in his first start against the Giants (6 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 0 BB and 3 Ks), but then dropped a decision to Kyle Gibson and the Cardinals last week (7 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 1 BB and 4 Ks). He's got a potent arsenal, though, as chronicled during last year's playoff run by the WSJ:

Montgomery, who has seven years of major-league experience under his belt, has made changes to his pitch repertoire and usage in the time since he left New York. Montgomery has long relied on secondary pitches, namely his curveball and change-up, to get him through an opposing lineup. It’s the progression of two different types of fastballs, two-seam and four-seam, that have helped him create the varied and effective approach that has befuddled hitters in this year’s postseason.

Oh, and the Diamondbacks also have Joc Pederson this year. The former Dodger is batting .296 with a 169 OPS+ and 2 HR on the year.

photo: Ken Murray / Shutterstock

Game 1 @ LA: Sat 10/7 6.20p: Clayton Kershaw vs. Merrill Kelly
Game 2 @ LA: Mon 10/9 6p: TBD vs. TBD
Game 3 @ AZ: Wed 10/11 TBD: TBD vs. TBD
Game 4 @ AZ: Thu 10/12 TBD: TBD vs. TBD
Game 5 @ LA: Sat 10/14 TBD: TBD vs. TBD

I apologize for having to put up a full series thread for this rather than individual Game Thread links. I'm going to be traveling this week--which means I unfortunately had to pass on going to Game 1, which is brutal--so I'm posting this in case I can't get to all the individual GT posts.

The Dodgers went up against the Diamondbacks in their last playoff appearance (2017), in which the Dodgers swept them out of the playoffs before advancing to eventually get cheated out of a World Series title. But the Diamondbacks scared me more this year than the heavily-vaunted Padres did; the Diamondbacks actually were in first place this year as late as July 19, before going on a nine-game losing streak that basically dropped them out of contention for good.

The Dodgers just posted their NLDS roster, and Ryan Yarbrough and Amed Rosario did not make the cut. Kolten Wong and Michael Grove did. Hmm.

DIAMONDBACKS 5, BREWERS 2; ARIZONA WINS 2-0

Pretty impressive by the underdog Diamondbacks, who took both games on the road for the series victory (Texas did the same thing @ Tampa Bay).

Game 1 of the NLDS is at Dodger Stadium on Saturday. Clayton Kershaw takes the mound for the Dodgers; no starter has been named yet for the Diamondbacks.

4p: Diamondbacks' Zac Gallen @ Brewers' Freddy Peralta (D'backs lead 1-0)
5p: Marlins' Braxton Garrett @ Phillies' Aaron Nola (Phillies lead 1-0)

The Dodgers can rest up while seeing if the Diamondbacks can prevail and steal another game in Milwaukee, or if the Brewers can send this series to a rubber match Thursday. The Brewers were the overwhelming favorites for this series, but Arizona's Game 1 win now gives them a 72% chance of advancing.

Starting to get nervous.

Oh, and there's another NL Wild Card game at hand, too. And two other AL Wild Card games (first pitch, 12p (Rangers @ Rays, Rangers lead 1-0) and 1p (Blue Jays at Twins, Twins lead 1-0).

These Wild Card series are nuts. If any of the Brewers, Marlins, Rays, and Blue Jays lose--they're done for the year. Yikes!

Mon 28: Bobby Miller vs. Gallen
Tue 29: Clayton Kershaw vs. Kelly
Wed 30: Ryan Pepiot vs. Pfaadt
All games at 7p

4-2 on the last roadtrip, which brings us to an amazing 21-4 record in August. Concerns that we are peaking too soon notwithstanding, the Dodgers have now opened up a 12-game lead on the second-place Diamondbacks and a 13.5-game lead on the Giants.

And like the Braves, the only other division leader with at least a ten-game gap, the Dodgers should be thinking more about resting our arms for the playoffs--so the TBD sitting on Wednesday's docket makes a lot of sense. With Tony Gonsolin out for the season, and the Dodgers picking up Tyson Miller off of waivers, let's not push anything over the edge!

Thu 4.6 7.10p: Dustin May vs. Kelly
Fri 4.7 6.40p: Clayton Kershaw vs. TBD
Sat 4.8 5.10p: Noah Syndergaard vs. TBD
Sun 4.9 1.10p: Michael Grove vs. TBD

When we last saw the Diamondbacks, oh...two games ago, the Snakes split four games at our house. Which in my mind, was a steal--this is a team that's supposed to finish with only 76 wins this year (latest PECOTA projections). But small ball at the plate, and a total Dodgers power outage in the even-numbered games, doomed the Dodgers and left us with an unsatisfying series split.

Winning two against the Rockies puts us at 4-2 and atop the NL West by a game. And there's no Urias on the mound this series, so we'll need the next four in the rotation to step up and keep our two-game win streak alive.

D'BACKS 2, DODGERS 1

Wasting a great effort from Noah "Thor" Syndergaard in his first Dodgers appearance, the Dodgers went 0-for-6 with RISP to split the series with a scrappy but overmatched Arizona team that had no business stealing two wins out of four. Not that the Dodgers' four measly hits all game helped any--and that includes a first-inning HR from Will Smith that seemed to get things on the right foot this afternoon. But that was the only run the Dodgers scored, leaving eight on base all game--and it was a frustrating disaster to watch (in my first game of the year at the Stadium).

Today's pathetic RISP performance echoed Friday's turd, another 2-1 loss that wasted another great starting effort (Dsustin May: 7.0 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 1 BB and 4 Ks), when the Dodgers went 0-for-7 with RISP and had 12 LOB. Chris Taylor went 0-for-7 in two games this series and looked overmatched at the plate, which is a huge concern after his poor performance last year; he's on track to be Cody Bellinger 2.0 at this rate. Will Smith, JD Martinez, and Trayce Thompson each had two strikeouts (the latter two also going 0-for-4 today), and Thompson, last night's hero, looked as bad as CT3 from the plate today.

Dodgers highlights, besides the Smith HR in the first, included Mookie Betts nailing a Ketel Marte at home on a Lourdes Gurriel Jr single to right, preserving the tie. However, Brusdar Graterol--who looked crappy all inning in the top of the ninth--couldn't escape from a jam of his own creation, when a drag bunt up the first-base line inexplicably evaded his glove on what would have ended the inning. Instead, now down 2-1, the Dodgers went feebly in the ninth: PH Austin Barnes Kd on three pitches; Chris Taylor Ks on a foul tip; and PH Jason Heyward grounds to first to end the game.

The quick 2:32 game time wasn't a lot of consolation when watching the Dodgers' half innings fly by in the blink of an eye. We're better than this. This wasn't a good start.

Thur Mar 30 7p: Julio Urias vs. Gallen
Fri Mar 31 7p: Dustin May vs. Kelly
Sat Apr 1 6p: Clayton Kershaw vs. Bumgarner
Sun Apr 2 1p: Noah Syndergaard vs. Davies

For the first time in a long time, the Dodgers enter this season without a groundswell of optimism, thanks to a largely somnambulent offseason where the Dodgers lost more WAR than any other team, driving them to a overall net WAR loss of -11.5. As fivethirtyeight.com states, this has driven many projection models and pundits to sound the alarm bells for the Dodgers, and though they have the highest uncertainty in 2023 win projections, some (like ESPN's Buster Olney) pick the Dodgers to not even finish on top of the division at year's end (Olney picked the Padres to win the 2023 World Series).

It's also not clear how all of MLB's rule changes will affect the Dodgers (let alone any other team in baseball). The pitch clock should help Dodgers pitching, most of whom tend to be quick operators. Banning the shift should help lift Max Muncy's batting average, not to mention highlight the defensive skill sets of new pickup Miguel Rojas (our starting shortstop, since Gavin Lux is out for the season) and rookie Miguel Vargas (who couldn't swing the bat for most of spring training due to an injured hand). And I'm still on the fence on whether the larger bases will really drive more stolen bases--the risk of injury to a runner is still a pretty major deterrent individually, even if teams or their statisticians may want it--but figure the bigger bases might be a benefit to the run-happy Dodgers (9th in the MLB last year for team SB), even with the departure of speedsters like Trea Turner and Cody Bellinger.

But let's get back to that WAR calculation with just some pure math. Sharpen your pencils! The Dodgers won 111 games last year, so with a net loss of -11.5 WAR, so that puts us as 99 wins for 2023. The Padres won 89 games last year, and even with their vaunted lineup of Juan Soto, Xander Boegarts, Manny Machado, and the eventual return of PED-user Fernando Tatis Jr.--they also had a net WAR loss of -0.6, which would put them at 88 games for 2023. 99 > 88. Dodgers still win the NL West.

I was debating this issue with SoSG Dusty Baker at this past weekend's spring training game @ Camelback Ranch, and I still think a 22-game gap (from 2022) will be difficult to close in one season. The math says that we'll see half that gap close, but it's still an 11-game lead. Not to mention, I'm sure Dodgers GM Andrew Friedman has some tricks up his sleeve, should the Dodgers get out to a solid start in 2023.

And that 2023 start commences today. Let's go, Dodgers. I'll be there Sunday afternoon (along with SoSG Alex Cora), when it would be great if we were able to watch Thor complete a series sweep of the Snakes.

Mon 19 7p: Kershaw vs. Kelly
Tue 20 12p: TBD vs TBD
Tue 20 7p: TBD vs TBD
Wed 21 7p: May vs. TBD
Thu 22 7p: Urias vs. TBD

Five games in four days? Is that any way to reward the 2022 NL West Champion Dodgers after sweeping the Giants in San Francisco, finishing the season with an astounding 15-4 record against the team that edged us out for the divisional title last year?

Luckily, the Dodgers are a stratospheric 46-16 against the NL West this year, including a 11-3 record against the Diamondbacks. Our starting pitchers for this extended series aren't called just yet, particularly for that day-night doubleheader on Tuesday. But the Dodgers still have a six-game lead for the best record in baseball with 17 games left to play. I'd like to see us continue to smush some sad snakes here at home.

Oh, and I'll be at the Stadium on Wednesday evening; hit me up if you want to say hi!

Mon 12: Anderson vs. Nelson
Tue 13: Kershaw vs. Kelly
Wed 14: TBD vs. TBD
all games at 6.40p

After winning two of three against the Padres this past weekend, the Dodgers have a 20-game lead and have officially clinched a playoff berth. But now, it takes two: Two more wins (or Padres losses), and the NL West Divisional crown is in order, for the ninth time in ten years. The Dodgers' +310 run differential is the most in the majors by over 100 runs. And in the Sunday Padres game, even Chris Taylor had a home run (though Justin Turner's grand slam was the dagger)--and even more amazing, Cody Bellinger had a base hit (snapping a 0-for-24 streak).

Bellinger is batting .200. Muncy is batting .197. Can both of them get over Mendoza by the end of the year?

Thu 5.26 6.40p: White vs. Castellanos
Fri 5.27 6.40p: Gonsolin vs. Bumgarner
Sat 5.28 4.15p: TBD vs. M Kelly
Sun 5.29 1.10p: T Anderson vs. TBD

This series, the last leg of a ten-game road trip, starts with Mitch White. White's last start was not so great (2.1 IP, 3 ER), and this very short outing vs. Philadelphia burdened the relief corps. Can White, in the opener, not cast a long shadow over the rest of the series?

Hoping we can rebound after dropping yet another final game in a series, preventing a sweep (Dodgers are 4-2 on this road trip).

And in other news: Sax placed two bets on the Dodgers last week, winning on both the Monday and Tuesday games. I didn't place a bet on Wednesday. And we lost. (SoSG Dusty blames me for the loss.)

Mon 5.16 7p: Gonsolin vs. Bumgarner
Tue 5.17 12p: TBD vs. M Kelly
Tue 5.17 7p: T Anderson vs. TBD
Wed 5.18 7p: Buehler vs. Davies

The walk-off victory on Sunday afternoon was great, especially given the rally came with two out off the bats of the struggling Cody Bellinger and Gavin Lux. But that doesn't change the fact that the Dodgers lost 5 of 7 against Pennsylvania teams in their last two series, including almost getting swept by the Phillies at home for the first time since 1985.

We were fortunate to prevail on Sunday. We don't really have much of a rotation at this point though, and our bullpen was horrible for three of the four games against Philadelphia. So let's see if we have anything left in the tank for Arizona, since we know how this went last time (hint: it wasn't good).

DIAMONDBACKS 3, DODGERS 1

I'm posting this only because I figure the Dodger faithful might need a spot to vent. We dropped two of three in Arizona to the lowly Diamondbacks, thanks to an overall lack of hitting (one run scored in the last 17 innings), not to mention three errors in the field. The worst of the fielding errors was on Tuesday from Gavin Luxe (deliberately spelled with an extra "e" after botching a throw that sent two runs home and paved the way for a third). But errors from Freddie Freeman and Max Muncy didn't help any in Wednesday's loss, either.

I'm salty. Let's take the day off, shall we?

DODGERS 4, D'BACKS 0

Walker Buehler has been good but not great this year: 1-1 with a 4.02 ERA entering this game. But in his fourth start, Buehler dazzled, pitching the majors' first complete game shutout since September 2021. His line: 9.0 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 BB and 10 Ks. Buehler's ERA dropped to 2.55.

Just: wow. Way to go, Buehler!

Walker Buehler, Wicked 92mph Cutter...and Sword. ⚔️ pic.twitter.com/ECjUX9oMjS

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 26, 2022

Now on the downside: apparently it was the highest pitch count of anyone this year (as per Joe Davis' call), at 108 pitches. And I'm a little surprised Doc Roberts let Buehler go so long into the game, given his penchant for the early hook, not to mention keeping the starters really protected this season given the lockout-shortened spring. So I guess we'll have to see how Buehler pitches in his next outing, which (with the day off), wouldn't roll aournd until Sunday May 1 vs. the Tigers at home.

The Dodgers got on the board early, using only nine pitches to have Mookie Betts walk, Freddie Freeman double Betts over to third, and Trea Turner double both runners home. Max Muncy, who started the game with a 3-0 count that he worked back into a strikeout (groan), doubled in Betts for another run in the fifth. And Will "Slappy" Smith hit a solo shot to center in the eighth that notched the Dodgers' final run of the game.

Only Justin Turner (0-for-4) and Cody Bellinger (0-for-3) were hitless in the Dodgers' lineup; both players had one K. At this point, one-tenth of the way through the season, only Muncy is sub-Mendoza. But Justin Turner and Mookie Betts are barely above .200 (.203, each), so we've still got a way to go to get this whole team humming.

And as a reminder, the Game Thread for this @Diamondbacks series is here.

photo: AP / Matt York

Mon 4/25 6.40p: Buehler (1-1, 4.02) vs. Kelly (1-0, 0.59)
Tue 4/26 6.40p: Gonsolin (1-0, 0.69) vs. Davies (1-1, 5.02)
Wed 4/27 12.40p: Urias (1-1, 3.00) vs. Gallen (0-0. 1.00)

Snakes in the desert, never a good sign. And the Diamondbacks are 6-10 this season but they're throwing two starters with pretty good ERAs against us this series. We do miss the opportunity to reunite with former Giants curmudgeon and current D'backs starter Madison Bumgarner, though, as he took the start Sunday in a losing effort to the Mets. The Diamondbacks' effort in tha Mets series, in which Arizona lost two of three, was called "sloppy".

Meanwhile, the Dodgers are serving up their 1-2-3 in their starting rotation, even if two of them don't have ERAs you'd expect given the small sample sizes. It's an observation that LAT columnist Dylan Hernandez also made in today's column, set to the tune of an 1980's Howard Jones song. Woah, woah, woah, oh, oh ohh-ohh.

So ahead of this series: do you feel scared? Well, I do. But I won't stop and falter.

Fri 9.24 6.40p: Gonsolin vs. Castellanos
Sat 9.25 5.10p: Kershaw vs. Gallen
Sun 9.26 1.10p: Urias vs. H Mejia

Nine games left, one game back. And we visit the Snakes, the worst team in the National League, while the Giants head to Colorado (where the Rockies, who dropped two with us last series, have usually been good at home).

The good news for this series: we face three starters with ERAs all over 4.00, and none of which have more than two wins this year.

The bad news: our starters have been uncharacteristically pedestrian of late, including consecutive shaky starts from normally solid Walker Buehler; five runs scored off of our ace Max Scherzer; and a concerning dip in fastball velocity from 18-game winner Julio Urias, who is well over his season-high innings count.

My expectation is that we don't make up ground this weekend. Sigh.