Sons of Steve Garvey

Tue 6.6 4p: Gonsolin vs. Weaver
Wed 6.7 4p: Syndergaard vs. Williamson
Thu 6.8 9.30a: Kershaw vs. Ashcraft

Coming off a losing series with the YankMes, the Dodgers get a quick two-city road trip starting in Cincinnati. I'm terrified by the Wednesday game with a Noah Syndergaard start, since either outcome is bad: if he wins (against a sub-.500 Reds team), we get lulled into thinking he might still be salvagable; if he loses (as he should), we drop a game we shouldn't be losing. It's a lose-lose proposition. Yikes.

NATIONALS 10, DODGERS 6

The Dodgers took the field today against Washington hoping for a sweep. But by throwing Noah Syndergaard out there on the mound, there was no way that was going to happen, crystallized by Syndergaard's horrible outing (5.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 BB, 2 K, 3 HR) and emphasized by bullpen failures from Brusdar Graterol (hit batsman and error preceding a three-run HR from Luis Garcia) and Phil Bickford (a two-run Keibert Ruiz HR, lofting Bickford's ERA to 6.92). With pitching this bad, there's no hope.

Syndergaard's ERA is 6.54 now and he's 1-4 on the year. I don't even know why that guy gets a start every five days. If he can't even beat the Nationals--seriously.

The Dodgers had some constructive moments offensively--Mookie Betts had two solo HR, and Will Smith had a home run as well. And we stole six bases (Chris Taylor 2; Freddie Freeman 2; Miguel Rojas 2). But we also went 2-for-14 with RISP, leaving 11 on base all game. With Max Muncy batting fifth and going 0-for-4 (and the bottom of our lineup just a black hole), it just shows that when we can't hit the home run, we are awful at moving players station to station.

We drop the final game of the series to the team with the worst record in the National League. And Friday, we get a real opponent in the visiting New York Yankees.

Go shake this shitshow off, Dodgers.

Mon 29 6p: Bobby Miller vs. Trevor Williams
Tue 30 7p: Tony Gonsolin vs. Jake Irvin
Wed 31 1p: Noah Syndergaard vs. Patrick Corbin

Hot off a disappointing 4-6 road trip (their longest of the season), not to mention a depressing 11-10 loss which dropped the series in Tampa Bay, the Dodgers return to the Stadium to face a swarm of pesky Nats. The Dodgers still own the second-best record in the National League (only behind the Braves by a half-game), and pundits have those two teams as the only NL playoff locks at this point.

But the team definitely looks weaker than their record shows, pillaged most recently by injuries to the starting rotation, not to mention a horrible May for Max Muncy that saw his batting average drop back below .200 (he's at .208 going into Monday's game, which he is sitting out). We get three games against the sub-.500 Nationals before the red-hot Yankees come to town. Better get the kinks out now.

Fri 26 3.40p: Syndergaard vs. TBD
Sat 27 1.10p: Kershaw vs. Glasnow
Sun 28 8.35a: Stone vs. TBD

The Dodgers meet Tampa for the first time since dispatching them in the 2020 World Series. And though the Rays' cast of characters has changed, they are still getting it done in a highly-competitive division, with the Rays at a major-league-leading 36-15 record, which would be five games better than the Dodgers if we were division rivals.

The Dodgers are coming off a winning series in Atlanta, punctuated by an unfortunate Phil Bickford outing on Wednesday, which dropped the Dodgers below .500 (3-4) on this road trip. The Dodgers still have problems getting runs across the plate; 1-for-10 with RISP on Wednesday, 10 LOB, led by Max Muncy's 0-for-5, 3K day in the cleanup spot (Chris Taylor also had 2 Ks in a 1-for-4 day, putting his average at .191).

This trip was always going to show if we have what it takes for the playoffs, especially leaning on our offense given our starting rotation is in shambles. After dropping three of four in St. Louis, the series win in Atlanta gave me some hope. Now the Rays are poised to crush that hope in their domed field.

Thu 18 4.45p: Julio Urias vs. Wainwright
Fri 19 5.15p: Tony Gonsolin vs. Metz
Sat 20 4.15p: Noah Syndergaard vs. Mikolas
Sun 21 11.15a: Clayton Kershaw vs. Flaherty

Prior to Opening Day, everyone picked the Cardinals to win the NL Central (to be fair, that "everyone" also chose the Padres over the Dodgers in the NL West). And the Cardinals still might.

But their 17-26 record is curently worst in the National League, and they've got issues. Local product Jack Flaherty is not the 2019 ace they need him to be in 2023 (though he did come to life last start with 10 Ks). Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol doesn't like Tyler O'Neill's lack of hustle on the basepaths.

And by going 8-2 over the last 10, while the Pirates have falle back to earth and the Brewers scuffle around, the Cardinals are only 6.5 games out (the smallest distance to first place for all six MLB divisions).

Meanwhile, the Dodgers have won their last six series including going 5-1 at home this past week, the lone blemish being a rare loss for the bereaved Clayton Kershaw, for his first home loss since June 2021. But wait, there's more: in Wednesday's 7-3 victory over the Twins, we may have lost Dustin May for what's being called "at least a month," but will probably be a lot more. It's a flexor pronator strain, which in layman's terms is really fucking bad.

May's slot in the rotation isn't due for this four-game series in St. Louis, but everyone else's is. So here we go: a hot start to May, precariously set up for a let down. Sounds like a house of cards, no? Or at least a visit to one? Sigh.

Mon 5.15 7p: Noah Syndergaard vs. López
Tue 5.16 7p: Clayton Kershaw vs. Ober
Wed 5.17 12n: Dustin May vs. Gray

Technically, the Loudon Wainwright III song "Gray in LA" refers to Wednesday's afternoon matchup, starring the Twins' Sonny Gray (4-0, 1.39 this year, but 1-3 vs. the Dodgers and 1-2 in Dodger Stadium).

But there's gloom across the rest of this series as well. Clayton Kershaw will be pitching with a heavy heart Tuesday, following the passing of his mother on Saturday. Our condolences to Clayton and Ellen and their family.

Less serious, but still gloomy, is Monday's starter Noah Syndergaard, who will be trying to rebound after his exploded blister derailed his last start. Syndergaard is 1-3 with a 6.12 ERA this season, and this setback to his digits will likely mean...a setback to his (ERA) digits. My expectations are low. And that's just the first game of the series (at least attendees will get a great consolation prize).

Despite this gloom, though, the Dodgers have been rolling of late, inlcuding a sweep of the Padres over the weekend. But now the Dodgers will play a winning team, as the Twins sit atop the largely weak AL Central with the division's only >.500 record. We'll see if the Twins bring rainclouds with them to the Stadium this week.

Mon 5.8 4.40p: Gonsolin vs. Peralta
Tue 5.9 4.40p: Syndergaard vs. Lauer
Wed 5.10 10.40a: Kershaw vs. Miley

The Brewers, widely picked to win the NL Central this year, are looking up at the Pittsbrgh Pirates, who started the season 20-8 before losing their last seven games to fall to only a half-game up on Milwaukee. The Dodgers, meanwhile, will start the bottom half of their rotation, having juggled everyone around to have better arms face San Diego this past weekend.

We came away from the Padres series pretty frothy, with a series victory including a dramatic comeback Sunday on national television. Hope we don't get skunked on the second half of this road trip, which starts by facing Freddy Peralta (who struck out 10 in his last start). Burp.

DODGERS 8, PIRATES 7

Sure, the Dodgers had five-run comeback victories last year. But this 2023 Dodger team is much different, starting with a 0-3 guy on the mound whose 6.58 ERA is pretty darn mortal. Noah Syndergaard had coughed up seven runs through four innings, rendering the Dodgers' 2-0 lead in the first useless, and the Dodgers were down 7-2 through four short innings.

But the Dodgers scrapped their way back, and even more exciting, it was done by some unlikely contributors. 25-year-old Michael Busch got his first MLB hit, an RBI single in the sixth, to make it 7-4 PIT. Austin Barnes and his whopping .057 batting average then tacked on a sacrifice fly to cut the lead to two runs.

And then Chris Taylor, who has been grinding his way out of a multiple-season slump, came up with a three-run HR to put the Dodgers in front for good.

Also making amazing contributions were the pitchers in the Dodgers' bullpen, which has been more porous than a Tulare Lake levee of late. But Victor Gonzalez (in his first appearance in over a year!), Evan Phillips, Yancy Almonte, Caleb Ferguson, and Shelby Miller each put in a full inning of scoreless work, to carry the Dodgers over the line and win this one, ending the Pirates' five-game win streak.

I could be critical of Trayce Thompson getting thrown out at home badly in the top of the ninth inning. Or complain about Mookie Betts (0-for-5 with 4 LOB) getting robbed of a three-run HR in the sixth by a nice play by Pirate left fielder Jack Suwinski. But I'll just take the win for now.

We've got Tony Gonsolin's 2023 debut this afternoon. Go Dodgers!

Tue 4.25 3.35p: Syndergaard (0-3, 4.91) vs Oviedo
Wed 4.26 3.35p: TBD Gonsolin (0-0, ---) vs. Contreras
Thu 4.27 9.35a: TBD Urias (3-2, 3.33) vs. Keller

Typically, the Dodgers have beaten up on the Pirates; from 2016-2021, the Dodgers had won every season series. But last year, the Dodgers went 1-5 against Pittsburgh. And this year, the Pirates are off to a scorching 16-7 start, including a seven-game win streak that has them atop the NL Central (tied with the Brewers).

Everyone's excited that the Dodgers' 48 HR ranks second in the majors (beyind Tampa Bay), or that our .787 team OPS is fourth in the majors (behind the Rays, Cubs, and Phillies). But don't let that distract you from the fact that we're a 12-11 team who has hovered aroudn the .500 mark all year (our peak was three games over .500 on April 6). Sure, that's good enough for first in the NL West, tied with the Snakes and a half-game ahead of the Padres. Given PNC Park has a sub-par HR factor (23rd in the league), my expectations are low.

Also want to shout out that I was considering attending this series, before life got in the way. Sigh.

Mon 4.17 7p: Dustin May vs. Peterson
Tue 4.18 7p: Clayton Kershaw vs. Megill
Wed 4.19 12n: Noah Syndergaard vs. some guy with heterochromia

The 8-8 Dodgers are most decidedly a .500 team in 2023. They don't have consistent offense, made worse by mini-slumps from Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman, further complicated by an IL stint from Will Smith (the Dodgers' leading hitter). They don't have very good pitching, with a weak bottom of the rotation, complemented with a unreliable bullpen. And they have a ton of lineup spots with weak bats, like Miguel Rojas, Chris Taylor, and possibly Max Muncy (who we hope might have snapped out of it vs. the Giants last week).

And the Dodgers rate 25th for batting average with RISP, at .231. There's some slight solace that the Padres are 26th on that list (and the Mets are 28th!), but both of those teams have big bats coming back. We have Austin Barnes, batting .053 and unable to throw anyone out stealing second, now playing every day.

Enter into this shitshow the Mets, who had a payroll over 50% more than the Dodgers ($346M vs. $225M), and a much better record (10-6) to show for it. I'm going to the Stadium on Monday, but I'm not feeling it. This seems like another losing series to me.

graphic courtesy Cat Sims of Sports Illustrated

Fri 4.14 7p: Noah Syndergaard vs. Steele
Sat 4.15 6p: Michael Grove vs. Taillon
Sun 4.16 1p: Julio Urias vs. Smyly

Welcome back to Dodger Stadium, Cody Bellinger! Let's hope the former Dodger MVP enjoys the trip back to the Stadium, in a year where he's seeing a little bit of a resurgence (.703 OPS), up from last year (.654) but still well below his career average or those great first four years of his Dodger career. That career went careening off the tracks with a shoulder injury from celebrating with Kiké Hernandez in the 2020 World Series championship run.

After that fateful blow, two long years of waiting for a non-existent rebound finally came to an end with Bellinger's off-season departure. As Jack Harris of the LAT quoted Dave Roberts, "sometimes, you just don't have any answers." (Harris did a great job of chronicling Bellinger's imability to make batting swing changes permanent--even when they were starting to yield positive results.) I'm glad to see Cody is performing a bit better for Chicago, who is surprisingly in third place in its division, two games behind the Brewers.

They may have moved beyond Bellinger, but the Dodgers' front office will be drooling during this series watching Cubs SS Dansby Swanson, who left the Braves this offseason and is batting .400 with a .917 OPS this season. That's a heck of a lot better than Miguel Rojas (.182 BA, .477 OPS) or Chris Taylor (.091 BA, .435 OPS).

Kinda sucks not having a real shortstop on the squad. Oh, and we're feeling it. Believe me.

Thu 4.6 7.10p: Dustin May vs. Kelly
Fri 4.7 6.40p: Clayton Kershaw vs. TBD
Sat 4.8 5.10p: Noah Syndergaard vs. TBD
Sun 4.9 1.10p: Michael Grove vs. TBD

When we last saw the Diamondbacks, oh...two games ago, the Snakes split four games at our house. Which in my mind, was a steal--this is a team that's supposed to finish with only 76 wins this year (latest PECOTA projections). But small ball at the plate, and a total Dodgers power outage in the even-numbered games, doomed the Dodgers and left us with an unsatisfying series split.

Winning two against the Rockies puts us at 4-2 and atop the NL West by a game. And there's no Urias on the mound this series, so we'll need the next four in the rotation to step up and keep our two-game win streak alive.

D'BACKS 2, DODGERS 1

Wasting a great effort from Noah "Thor" Syndergaard in his first Dodgers appearance, the Dodgers went 0-for-6 with RISP to split the series with a scrappy but overmatched Arizona team that had no business stealing two wins out of four. Not that the Dodgers' four measly hits all game helped any--and that includes a first-inning HR from Will Smith that seemed to get things on the right foot this afternoon. But that was the only run the Dodgers scored, leaving eight on base all game--and it was a frustrating disaster to watch (in my first game of the year at the Stadium).

Today's pathetic RISP performance echoed Friday's turd, another 2-1 loss that wasted another great starting effort (Dsustin May: 7.0 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 1 BB and 4 Ks), when the Dodgers went 0-for-7 with RISP and had 12 LOB. Chris Taylor went 0-for-7 in two games this series and looked overmatched at the plate, which is a huge concern after his poor performance last year; he's on track to be Cody Bellinger 2.0 at this rate. Will Smith, JD Martinez, and Trayce Thompson each had two strikeouts (the latter two also going 0-for-4 today), and Thompson, last night's hero, looked as bad as CT3 from the plate today.

Dodgers highlights, besides the Smith HR in the first, included Mookie Betts nailing a Ketel Marte at home on a Lourdes Gurriel Jr single to right, preserving the tie. However, Brusdar Graterol--who looked crappy all inning in the top of the ninth--couldn't escape from a jam of his own creation, when a drag bunt up the first-base line inexplicably evaded his glove on what would have ended the inning. Instead, now down 2-1, the Dodgers went feebly in the ninth: PH Austin Barnes Kd on three pitches; Chris Taylor Ks on a foul tip; and PH Jason Heyward grounds to first to end the game.

The quick 2:32 game time wasn't a lot of consolation when watching the Dodgers' half innings fly by in the blink of an eye. We're better than this. This wasn't a good start.

Thur Mar 30 7p: Julio Urias vs. Gallen
Fri Mar 31 7p: Dustin May vs. Kelly
Sat Apr 1 6p: Clayton Kershaw vs. Bumgarner
Sun Apr 2 1p: Noah Syndergaard vs. Davies

For the first time in a long time, the Dodgers enter this season without a groundswell of optimism, thanks to a largely somnambulent offseason where the Dodgers lost more WAR than any other team, driving them to a overall net WAR loss of -11.5. As fivethirtyeight.com states, this has driven many projection models and pundits to sound the alarm bells for the Dodgers, and though they have the highest uncertainty in 2023 win projections, some (like ESPN's Buster Olney) pick the Dodgers to not even finish on top of the division at year's end (Olney picked the Padres to win the 2023 World Series).

It's also not clear how all of MLB's rule changes will affect the Dodgers (let alone any other team in baseball). The pitch clock should help Dodgers pitching, most of whom tend to be quick operators. Banning the shift should help lift Max Muncy's batting average, not to mention highlight the defensive skill sets of new pickup Miguel Rojas (our starting shortstop, since Gavin Lux is out for the season) and rookie Miguel Vargas (who couldn't swing the bat for most of spring training due to an injured hand). And I'm still on the fence on whether the larger bases will really drive more stolen bases--the risk of injury to a runner is still a pretty major deterrent individually, even if teams or their statisticians may want it--but figure the bigger bases might be a benefit to the run-happy Dodgers (9th in the MLB last year for team SB), even with the departure of speedsters like Trea Turner and Cody Bellinger.

But let's get back to that WAR calculation with just some pure math. Sharpen your pencils! The Dodgers won 111 games last year, so with a net loss of -11.5 WAR, so that puts us as 99 wins for 2023. The Padres won 89 games last year, and even with their vaunted lineup of Juan Soto, Xander Boegarts, Manny Machado, and the eventual return of PED-user Fernando Tatis Jr.--they also had a net WAR loss of -0.6, which would put them at 88 games for 2023. 99 > 88. Dodgers still win the NL West.

I was debating this issue with SoSG Dusty Baker at this past weekend's spring training game @ Camelback Ranch, and I still think a 22-game gap (from 2022) will be difficult to close in one season. The math says that we'll see half that gap close, but it's still an 11-game lead. Not to mention, I'm sure Dodgers GM Andrew Friedman has some tricks up his sleeve, should the Dodgers get out to a solid start in 2023.

And that 2023 start commences today. Let's go, Dodgers. I'll be there Sunday afternoon (along with SoSG Alex Cora), when it would be great if we were able to watch Thor complete a series sweep of the Snakes.