Tuesday, June 05, 2012
Mark Appel
And here’s the scenario we’ve been talking about, as Dave illustrates it. You have the potential first overall pick going #8, where the slot money is 4MM$ lower than the #1 slot.
I think there’s no way that the Pirates do anything other than pick the best player available for the rest of the draft. The Pirates have an out here: they get a free pick after the #8 slot next year.
Let’s think the way the free market would think: these draft pick are ALL underpriced. Let’s say that the true value of picks 2 through 10 is worth 20MM$, but it’s going to cost the Pirates say 5MM$ to pay for those players. (All numbers completely made up for discussion purposes.) Drafting to their conscience means they have made 15MM$. The amateur draft is like getting foreclosed property, with limited bidding. Every team wins.
Anyway, if they pay Appel the 7MM$ he might want, the Pirates then have to punt the rest of the draft in order to take all the underpayments and pass it on to Appel (and thereby end up with no positive net asset value on those other players). Say Appel himself is worth 22MM$. Therefore, the Pirates are still up by 15MM$.
Except, bynot giving in to Appel, they get a high pick next year, and THAT pick is going to have a net asset value of say 10MM$ (say he’s worth 13MM$ and it’ll cost them the 3MM$ in slot money). Plus of course the 15MM$ of net asset value for picks 2 through 10 this year.
No, I don’t think they’ll punt the rest of the draft, and they are not going to pay overslot by any meaningful extent. The teams hold all the cards, which is the purpose of a draft with no bidders and heavy compensation for not closing the deal.
Appel is then going to, what, go back in the draft, and, what, hope he goes #1 next year, which a possibility that he’ll be taken #1 through #12 next year? And he’ll sign for slot money of, on average, say 4MM$. He’ll go through all this to earn an extra 1MM$ maybe, and delay his earnings clock by a year?
There’s a new reality in town, and someone better tell the kids that this isn’t their father’s draft any more.
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