THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Thursday, January 03, 2013

Base scores

On Bill’s site, he was talking about converting scores in NFL to MLB, noting that 3 football points is like one MLB run.  I responded:

In MLB, it’s about 10 runs per win, while in NFL, it’s about 35 points per win. So, conversion is about 3.5 to 1. A 7-4 MLB game would therefore be about 24-14 in NFL (or really 27-17… it’s not just the multiple, but there’s a “base number” that each team gets). This is more obvious in NBA, where it’s about 30 points per win (similar to NFL), so 3:1 conversion to MLB. So, 7-4 MLB is like 109-100 in NBA. There’s a huge “base” number of points that each side gets, and then you do the multiplier. NHL is 6 to 7 goals per win, so 7-4 MLB is 5-3 in NHL. NHL is like MLB in that there’s no “base” scoring.

It also got me thinking how “true” a sport is in its scoring if there was no “base scoring”.  NBA gives you points basically for just possessions.  A huge amount of the scoring is simply based on having the ball in your hands.  Yes, you have to throw it in the basket.  But, what I’m trying to say is that the score differential in NBA is about the same as it is in NFL.  Basically, if you score an average of 5 more points per game in NBA, that means about the same as scoring 5 more points per game in NFL.  But, the total number of points per game is far different.

NFL could adopt a scoring system that gives you say a quarter point for every yard gained from the scrimmage line or something, and then we’d get a scoring system that might look more like NBA.  That is, you get points for possessions, but not for actually scoring.  I know, I know, in NBA, you get points only for the basket.  I got it.  When you make analogies, you are not making equivalencies.

It made me think of tennis, where the “points” you get, like yards in football, are not real points.  They only matter if you win the game.  And even the games don’t matter unless you win the set.

So, you can actually try to do the same thing with basketball.  For example, imagine you do tennis-style scoring in basketball.  You win a “game” if you get 4 or more unanswered points.  Once you have that, a new game resets.  So, the back-and-forth of getting two points is a wash.  Turnovers become a huge key.  If you make it 5 or more unanswered points instead, then you might see alot of 3-point attempts.  Imagine for example, you win a “game” if you need at least 5 unanswered points.  You score (that’s 2 points), the other teams come up court, but you steal, and score an easy basket (2 points, now at 4 points).  But if the other team scores, that wipes out your 4 points, rendering it meaningless.  Now your opponent is at 2 points.  Would be wild right?

Anyway, and this is just me, so I’m sure I’m in the minority, I don’t follow basketball because it just seems like an up-and-down game.  There’s no incentive to not be up-and-down.  There also doesn’t seem to be much randomness.  Well, I know there isn’t, because I’ve shown that to be true.  In a 48-minute game, the better team wins much more than the opponent.  I don’t know that that’s the best way to operate, especially in light of how MLB and NHL operate.  And even if that IS the best way to operate, I know that having an 82-game season is NOT the best way to operate.  And having 16-teams in the playoffs on top of that is not the best way to operate.  The NBA sucks as much of the randomness as possible to leave you with a very strong confidence that the team that wins the championship is indeed the most talented team in the league.  But, do we really want that?  Don’t we want to see some huge upset occasionally?  The other sports offer that because of their game structure or schedule.  NBA doesn’t.

Anyway, just a thought that popped into my head.

Tuesday, January 01, 2013

Retrosheet-style NFL data

Brian once again delivers the data.

One of those things I want to do when I retire from baseball is create Markov chains for football (NFL AND CFL).  Lots of fun.  But, that’s at least a decade away.

Thursday, December 27, 2012

Integrity of a season

Tyler asks about the Bettman’s claim of the “integrity” of an NHL season.

In my view, the “integrity” issue is a non-issue.  We have no problem with the Canada Cup and World Cup in hockey or World Cup in soccer. 

Tyler however makes the point that in the old days with fewer teams, everyone played everyone else a large number of games, so a 44-game season had plenty of coverage in terms of head-to-head matchups.  And Bettman is implying as much with a 48-game season (meaning 2 to 4 games against each intra-conference game and zero inter-conference).  But, Tyler asks why not just 2 games against intra-conference opponents, so that even at 28 games, the season has “integrity” (as Bettman could define it).

Then we have the example of the NFL, which of course only plays 16 games, in a 32-team league.

It goes back to how much spread in talent there is.  And a long time ago, I showed the equivalency of a regular season length for the 4 sports.

If we treat the NFL’s 16-game season as the minimum number of games to have a season with “integrity”, the equivalency in the other sports is:
19 games NBA
48 games NHL
92 games MLB

So, Bettman is right, using the NFL standard (1 NFL game = 3 NHL games, in terms of what we learn about each team’s talent).  But I imagine a 14-game NFL season would also be acceptable, and so that brings us down to 42 games for an NHL season.  Furthermore, the NHL not only allows more teams in the playoffs, but they play more games in the playoffs.  Whereas an NFL team needs to play 3, maybe 4, games in the playoffs, an NHL team will play 16 to 28 games in a 4-round series. 

In NFL, the eventual winner will have played some 17 games in a regular 14-game season.  The equivalent in NHL would be 51 games including playoffs.  Strip out an average of 23 games for the Cup champion (or whatever it actually is), and it only needs 28 games of regular season play.

And in a 15-team conference, playing home-and-home against each team gives us 28 games.  That I think is the integrity point, if 14-game NFL regular season is your standard.

Friday, December 21, 2012

Bettors and sports

About twenty years ago, Loto Quebec (the provincial government agency that regulates lotteries and gambling) introduced Mise-O-Jeu (Faceoff) that allowed betting on the NHL.  They basically gave odds for wins, and you multiplied all three odds to determine your payoff.  The NHL of course fought them, but, naturally, they lost.

It seems that this is the standard protocol, that the leagues keep fighting the government, they keep using the same arguments, the courts keep siding against the leagues not buying into their arguments.  Now, it’s MLB’s turn.  Here are some relevant articles, one with Selig’s deposition, and legal experts wondering why testimony is being redacted of the plaintiffs themselves.

Wednesday, December 19, 2012

How much should the NHL give to the players?

I was struck by the following information:

Indeed, according to the The U.S. Professional Sports Market & Franchise Value Report 2011, average franchise values in the first decade of this millennium increased 141% for the NFL (from $423 million to $1 billion), 101% for MLB ($233M to $491M), 78% for the NBA ($207M to $369M) and 54% for the NHL ($148M to $228M). This over a decade that witnessed a once-in-four-generations recession.

I have no idea what the company is (not Forbes), but you gotta figure whatever biases exist won’t be systematic toward or against one sport.  They also provide year-by-year valuations.  If we focus from 2006-2010, the total increase in valuations are as follows:

2006	2010	change	League
180	228	27%	NHL
353	369	5%	NBA
376	491	31%	MLB
898	1022	14%	NFL

Valuations increase in NBA has been almost nothing, but NHL has jumped since the last CBA to MLB-level increases.

I’ve said in the past that MLB GM’s are getting smarter, giving out less money per revenue to players.  The less players get, the more the franchise is worth.  NHL righted their model by dropping the share of revenue from 74% to 54%-57%.  That was a huge drop in share, and so, teams became more profitable, and so, they were worth more.

Did it swing too much?  Let’s look at multiple of valuation per dollar revenue:

Revenue	Worth	Multiple	League
98	228	 2.33 	NHL
127	369	 2.91 	NBA
210	491	 2.34 	MLB
265	1022	 3.86 	NFL

Interestingly, MLB and NHL are in about the same boat, they’ve gained in valuation in similar rate, and their multiple of worth per revenue is the same.  And yet, in pales in comparsion to the NBA, which barely has more revenue than NHL (really?!  I’m very surprised), anyway, 30% more in revenue, and yet each team is worth 60% more.

And the three non-NFL leagues combined are worth about the same as just the NFL, even though they have 64% more revenues.  Obviously, NFL is the model they aspire to.

Sunday, December 16, 2012

Do we need jousting in football?

The train-wreck of the play may be exciting, but, if you balance the excitement against the health, it does seem disproportionate.

It’s odd though that it’s the owners, and not the players, that are dictating the rules here.

Thursday, December 13, 2012

Expanding NFL playoffs

I think the idea of an 8-8 team making the playoffs (and eventually winning the Super Bowl) seems… displeasing to some.  Why not therefore have a playoff system where ANY team that wins more than it loses make the playoffs.  And you have a different system based on whether you have only six teams make it to whether you have sixteen teams make it.

Yes, I know, it’s crazy, it’ll never be adopted.  Thank you Mr Party Pooper who doesn’t like to think beyond the comfortable confines of imminent reality.  This thread is not for you.  Anything less crazy than the current stalemate between NHL and NHLPA is worth discussing.  And this qualifies.

Think of yourself as a hired scheduling consultant of the NFL, the NFL is a bridezilla, they paid you lots of money, and the decision has been made in terms of all 9-7 and 8-7-1 teams and better are in the playoffs.  So, have at, and let’s see your creative thought process that could make this plausible.

Wednesday, December 12, 2012

When to intentionally allow a TD

Brian goes through the math to come up with a model.  He looks at it from the defense-side, and uses a Super Bowl game as an illustration.

HOWEVER!  Remember the old adage that if it’s too good to be true, then it probably isn’t?  Well, if the defense is going out of its way to allow a TD (presumably to its benefit), there’s no reason the offense must score the TD.

Indeed, I now wait for Brian’s 5-part series: when to intentionally NOT score a TD.  Basically, if the defense is letting you run to the goal line, the offense should simply run sideline to sideline between the 5 and 10 yard lines, hoping to eat up as much of the clock as possible (fumbles notwithstanding, though fumbles may start to go up in those cases).

This is like the shift.  We know EXACTLY how to stop the shift: bunt to the open side.  You do that often enough, and the fielding alignment will have to be less extreme.  But, the fielders are banking on the power hitters’ egos in not wanting to bunt.  Similarly in football, the defense can get away in allowing the offense to score a TD because the offense will have not prepared well enough to figure out when not to score the TD.

Friday, December 07, 2012

New kickoff rules?

Intriguing to say the least.  Kickoff replaced by punts at yard X.  And onside kicks replaced by 4th-and-Y yards.

The article is saying that X=30 and Y=15.  The key of course is to determine what X and Y should be, to keep everything in balance.  It sure seems to me that if you have the option to punt from your own 30, or go for it on 4th and 15, that you’d almost always punt.  At least with the onside kick, the opposing team will recover it at say the 45 yard line.  On a failed 4th and 15, the turnover is the line of scrimmage!  Then again, they can make it that the turnover occurs at the Z yardline, to more mimic the onside kick, essentially guaranteeing a “minimum punt zone” (Z minus X) of, in this case, 20 yards.

Anyway, that’s what I’d like to see, how X, Y, and Z have to be set to more mimic what we have with the kickoff, and then how adjusting any or all of those numbers would affect the play.

Wednesday, December 05, 2012

Exhiliration Gap

Poz gives us his list of the sports better viewed live than on TV, with NHL on the top and NFL on the bottom.  I especially agree with Poz here:

The volume over how much someone does not like hockey corresponds precisely to how few times that person has seen a live hockey game.

I should also add that it matters where you sit, how big the crowd is, how important the event.  If I had to pick one event to watch live, and it didn’t matter at all where I sat, I’d probably go with the final game for the men’s World Cup (soccer).  But generally speaking, a random NHL game would beat a random high-level soccer game for me.

Baseball loses it live with respect to the pitcher/batter, which is the most fascinating part of the game, that “game within the game”.  Watching it live, I have no idea what the count is, whether the pitcher threw over the plate or outside, etc.  Naturally, I prefer the live portion when it comes to baserunning and fielding, but since most of the “action” in a game is focused on batter/pitcher, I gotta go with TV on that one.

I don’t know if there’s any aspect of football I prefer live than on TV.  Maybe the kick/punt return for the touchdown?  Maybe the long bomb?  I guess anything where you need to see half the field.  Best part of live football is the pre-game tailgating frankly.

I’ve seen high-level tennis live (at Jarry Park… that guy that renounced his Canadian citizenship in favor of British against a Quebec player… forget their names now).  I think I’m about even there, live or TV.

What say you?

Thursday, November 29, 2012

Are the Forbes numbers worse than useless?

Michael Lewis noted that Bill James preferred the honest mess than the tidy lie.  I love that, and I live that.

Tyler notes that Forbes may simply be providing the tidy lie, as he tries to check into some of their numbers.  And I agree, that the tidy lie is worse than useless.  At least insofar as the revenue numbers are concerned.

One would think their valuation numbers might make more sense, since we see teams trade hands all the time in all the sports, so it provides a checkpoint.  However, I’m just guessing, and hopefully, someone else can verify how far off their numbers are.  (And I seem to remember us having a thread on this already.)  Basically, the Forbes valuations are “forecasts”.  And any team that is sold can then be measured against the forecast (arena/stadium combination deals notwithstanding).

Saturday, November 24, 2012

Decertification

A great article that talks all about decertification in the NHL, NFL, and NBA.

Funny how the league that has labor peace is the one that does NOT have a revenue-splitting system.  And yet MLB players’ share of MLB revenues is on par with the rest of the leagues.

Solution?  Get the owners from the other three leagues to get smarter GMs.  That’s what Moneyball gave MLB.

Friday, November 23, 2012

Proskauer Rose’s Bob Batterman

He seems to be considered the architect of negotiations with NBA and NHL.  And so, the catalyst for decertification as part of negotiations for the other side.

Whether it makes sense for professional athletes to have a union at all is also now a point for debate after the mess negotiations have become in the NFL, NBA and NHL in the past 18 months.

“A lot of academic commentators would tell you it’s the leagues that really want the unions,� Grow said. “Because under U.S. law … they can violate federal antitrust laws in ways that they couldn’t if the players weren’t unionized. Normally, under antitrust laws principles, a salary cap would be illegal.�

A rule is a rule is NOT a rule?

Sometimes, a rule seems to be created just for the sake of creating a rule.  We have word that the NFL is reconsidering a rule. 

The issue at hand is that a coach challenged a scoring play (he thought the opposing player had his knee down, and said player continued on to score).  The coach is prohibited from doing so.  The penalty is 15 yards.  Such reviews can only be initiated by the Replay Official.

The real question is why does the penalty have to occur on that play, and not simply be added on the next play?  The obvious fix to this scenario, is that the Replay Official can continue to go for the replay, and if he reverses the ruling (the guy was actually down), then they move the ball 15 yards from that point.

***

Someone in the comments was being a smart-alec and said that the coach of the team that scored the questionable touchdown could throw a challenge flag against his own team! 

The rule says this:

...and cannot initiate a review of any ruling against a team that commits a foul that delays the next snap

So presumably the coach making an illegal challenge is in fact delaying the next snap, and so, the review is now off the table.  It seems to me that there’s language to support a “block” of a review that you think would have otherwise gone against you (unless someone out there can explain it better).

I would think however that once a coach does one of these block challenges, which effectively prevents the Replay Official from initiating a replay, then with no replay possible at the Replay Official’s discretion, the opposing coach is now free to request a replay.

Anyway, it’s an extremely poorly-worded and poorly-executed rule.

The entire reason for replays is to get the call right.  To have language that prevents the call from being right is an affront.  The coach was a hothead, but you can still penalize him on the next possession (and there are a few rules where the penalty is handled on the next possession), rather than negating the possibility of a review.

Tuesday, November 20, 2012

Would Tim Tebow be better in the CFL?

Joe thinks that maybe Tebow would be better as a “swiss army knife” QB. 

***

The CFL has long been home to all kinds of QBs.  Little Doug Flutie you know about.  And Warren Moon should NOT have been an oddity, and wouldn’t have been today.  But the CFL doesn’t discriminate.  One of my favorites was Damon Allen, brother to Marcus Allen.  He has over 9100 pass attempts (averaging 7.9 yards per pass), and over 1700 rush attempts (averaging 6.7 yards per carry).  At his peak, his pass to rush ratio was 4:1, almost 3:1.  Damon was 6 feet and 186 lbs, a smaller version of Michael Vick.  I don’t know what kind of QB Tebow is or should be, but we can figure him out in the CFL. 

Of course, money will preclude that experiment.

And by the way, I LOVE the CFL’s page when you don’t find something.

Friday, November 16, 2012

CFL at Olympic Stadium

Semi-final match between the Alouettes and Argonauts.  42,000 tickets sold so far. 

Tuesday, November 13, 2012

Is it possible to have a tie-breaking rule that is somehow worse than ending the game tied?

Seems that not all NFL players realize that there ARE ties in life.

I know David is out there, and he’ll give us his two cents that ties are fine.  And it seems to me that if you delay the start of The Simpsons, there ought to be a good reason for it.

Anyway, I vote: NO on ties.  I’d be happy to go into accelerated scoring.

Monday, November 12, 2012

This week in inertial reasoning

MLB hands out two MVP awards, two Cy Young, two of everything, but the other leagues (NFL, NBA, NHL) have only one.  The NFL did look like they used to hand out two awards for a while, but then they stopped the inertia.

Is playing 11% inter-conference games too few to consider the two conferences as conferences, and instead should be leagues?  But the 20-25% that the other leagues play IS enough to consider them conferences?

Friday, November 09, 2012

Do Dallas cheerleaders reveal too much skin?

You may have an opinion when you see the ladies, but how about when you see the men? This reminds me of the classic bit of Chris Farley (RIP) and Patrick Swayze auditioning (can’t confirm the link at the office, but that looks like the right one). Why therefore would there be an uproar with one gender, while it’s simply comical when it’s the other gender?  It can’t be how “suggestive” the dance is, because obviously Chris Farley does the most suggestive routine of them all.

Friday, November 02, 2012

Inertial reasoning

It’s the term I use to counter Topol’s “tradition” as the reason to do something.  Tradition is a wonderful thing.  Inertial reasoning is what you use if you don’t have a good argument.  Unfortunately, one man’s tradition is another man’s inertial reasoning.  Hence, we end up having non-productive discussions.

The point-after-touchdown kick is, to me, based on inertial reasoning.

Brian speaks.