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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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Thursday, January 03, 2013

Liability costs for gun ownership

By .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address), 04:11 PM

The argument is that if we require liability insurance for cars and if mortgage companies require the house to be insured, then apply that principle to gun ownership.  Opposite that is that a main problem is illegal guns and so, the share of illegal guns will increase as honest potential gun owners don’t buy guns because of the extra roadblock.

(36) Comments • 2013/01/04 Blogging

Wednesday, January 02, 2013

Dogs

By .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address), 09:40 PM

I have a stubborn dog.  He might even be an a$$hole.  He occasionally bites (or at least grabs with his teeth) the hands that feed him.  He’s a scavenger for food, and he’s not shy at hopping up to see what’s on the counter. When we are tough on him, he pouts.  On a more serious note: He’s escaped on more than one occasion, and we’ve panicked just as many times.  I don’t want to say he’s untrainable, but he’s definitely a major challenge. 

Alright, that’s what I’m up against.  Tell me something I’ve never heard.  Help!

(18) Comments • 2013/01/04 Blogging

Monday, December 31, 2012

Arachnophobia

By .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address), 06:11 PM

A pretty good article, that covers many different sports, and sports-related persons.

No matter how apocryphal you may think of how various characters are portrayed in literature, like Ferris Bueller and Jesus (and Matty and Felipe), at the least if you have to choose, go for understanding and tolerance, rather than fear and isolation:

Snooty Maitre D’: I appreciate your understanding.
Ferris: Don’t think twice. It’s understanding that makes it possible for people like us to tolerate a person like yourself.
Maitre D’: Thank you.
Ferris: Don’t mention it.

And the “people like us” applies to both sides.

(1) Comments • 2012/12/31 Blogging

Ripoff movies

By .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address), 05:57 PM

Battle Royale is the 2000 movie from Japan that shares many elements with the later The Hunger Games.  I LOVED this comment:

Vicnent: And you know what they call The Hunger Games in Tokyo?
Jules: They don’t call it The Hunger Games?
Vincent: Nah, man, they got the metric system. They wouldn’t know what the f-ck a Game is.
Jules: What do they call it?
Vincent: They call it a “Battle Royale.”
Jules: “Battle Royale.”
Vincent: That’s right.

 

(8) Comments • 2013/01/03 Blogging

Wednesday, December 26, 2012

How do you bid on ebay?

By .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address), 04:53 PM

In an otherwise fun column about baseball card collecting, Poz dropped this innocuous note:

OK. Back. I just put an eBay bid on a 1976 Topps baseball card set. Wish me luck.

There is exactly one and only one way that I bid on ebay: I wait until there is one to ten seconds left in the auction.  I don’t buy enough stuff on ebay to decide what is the optimal point with my internet connection.  And I have lost items where someone else bids with two seconds to go. Now, I HAVE lost out on items because I forgot to eventually put in a bid.  So, I am not a serious enough ebay-er to put in reminders, and make sure I login five minutes before the end.  To me, it’s optimizing the price.
 
If ever I were to put in a bid like Poz did, minutes, hours or days in advance, I would put in my max bid, and not watch it, which I presume is what Poz did.  That’s optimizing the time.

I don’t get the bidding wars at all.  If you are that kind of ebay-er, I’d like to know why/how you get yourself into that position.  If you are that into it, why not just wait until the very end (Tango method)?  And if you are not that into it, why not just bid once and wait for the end (Poz method)?  The bidding war I don’t get, other than optimizing the thrill for the sake of getting a thrill.  Tell me.

(20) Comments • 2012/12/27 Blogging

Memento - a decade later

By .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address), 03:51 PM

I just saw it for the first time yesterday.  If you haven’t seen it, then don’t bother reading, as it will contain major spoilers.

Read More

(8) Comments • 2012/12/30 Blogging

Monday, December 24, 2012

Steubenville High

By .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address), 06:07 PM

No words to describe this story.  It’ll take you at least 10 minutes to read through.  The story covers pretty much every aspect of the case. 

(32) Comments • 2013/01/05 Blogging

Tuesday, December 18, 2012

Empathy or isolation?

By .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address), 06:57 PM

Dirk Hayhurst is asking how should those afflicted the least handle those afflicted the most?

(5) Comments • 2012/12/19 Blogging

David Chase finally explains Sopranos ending

By .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address), 02:47 AM

He said he’d never explain it, but he finally did:

To me the question is not whether Tony lived or died, and that’s all that people wanted to know: “Well, did he live or did he die? You didn’t finish the show. You didn’t answer the question.” That’s preposterous. There was something else I was saying that was more important than whether Tony Soprano lived or died. About the fragility of all of it. ... All I wanted to do was present the idea of how short life is and how precious it is. The only way I felt I could do that was to rip it away.

 

(6) Comments • 2012/12/19 Blogging

Monday, December 17, 2012

Second Amendment

By .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address), 06:14 PM

Please limit your discussion to these particular points.  I know you have something else to say.  This thread isn’t for you.

I have four questions with regard to The Second Amendment:

1. Why does it exist, or how did it come about?

2. What encompasses “arms”?

3. How do other countries handle these rights (specifically: Canada, Great Britain, Germany, Russia)?

4. How does one person’s right to bear arms impact someone else’s right to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness (directly or indirectly; positively or negatively)?

(44) Comments • 2012/12/20 Blogging

Sunday, December 16, 2012

Bleg: Music Sheet for SpongeBob’s Don’t Be Jerk, It’s Christmas

By .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address), 06:18 PM

Thank you!

() CommentsBlogging

Friday, December 14, 2012

If the GOP were smart, they’d make the smart guys in charge

By .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address), 07:40 PM

If I were a democrat, I’d be scared of guys like Bobby Jindal and Chris Christie.  Christie does punt on some issues (requiring referendum for gay marriage, dragging his heels on medicinal marijuana, etc).  But at least they are not duplicitous.  They seem honest and straight-forward, which, for all his faults, is what Bush seemed to be. 

I’d prefer a Cuomo/Christie ticket, by acclamation.  And then swap them for the second term.

(18) Comments • 2012/12/15 Blogging

Thursday, December 13, 2012

Concert 121212

By .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address), 03:28 PM

I don’t usually watch concerts on TV.  But I was pretty captivated by this one.  What was cool was that HBO has multiple channels, so that the “East” one had the 7:30-1:30 live feed, while the “West” one had the 10:30-4:30 delayed feed.  I started watching it at 11:00, so I was able to flip back-and-forth, and watch whichever one interested me more at the time.  Otherwise, I would likely have bailed and not gone back to it later.

Anyway, while I noticed that the performers were on the old side, something that “one-fourth of Cold Play” noted, I hadn’t noticed that there were almost no women.  On the bright side, the instant iconic Empire State of Mind by Alicia Keys did end the show (is it possible that in twenty years that it’s this song, and not Sinatra’s New York New York, that will define The City?  It’s hard to have even considered the possibility four years ago.)

UPDATE: Good review, with the entire program/set list at the bottom.

(6) Comments • 2012/12/15 Blogging

Monday, December 10, 2012

Chilly D’s Sports Lounge

By .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address), 03:59 PM

The 47 Yelp reviews all came in the last 48 hours.  The issue was that the waiter put in a not-so-subtle identifier on the bill to track it against the customer.  The catalyst is that this identifier was offensive and the customers saw it.  The problem was how management handled it.

Let me give you a similar problem that happened to my sister.  She was irritated by one of the workers at this amusement place, so she went to complain.  And after “letting them have it”, management decided to give her free tickets.  While they did the right thing, she thought that she expended too much energy to get it to that point.

Back to Chilly D’s: apparently, the manager offered 25% discount, then 50% discount.  I don’t know how much complaining the girls did.  I understand that you can’t comp someone every time they complain, and you can’t give free meals over and above the comp too often.  Then again, when you have physical evidence like these girls had, something that is very easy to go viral, can you really take that chance?  At some point, you gotta figure that it’ll cost less in the end to comp and give free tickets than to stand your ground. Businesses survive based on repeat customers, and goodwill is one way to get there.

Interesting in hearing your brushes with the service industry.

(6) Comments • 2012/12/11 Blogging

Thursday, December 06, 2012

Star Trek 2013 Prologue

By .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address), 10:11 PM

See the first nine minutes of the upcoming Star Trek, preceding The Hobbit IMAX showing, at a venue near you.

(7) Comments • 2012/12/07 Blogging

Friday, November 30, 2012

Cellular/Mobile phone carrier quality

By .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address), 05:03 PM

Consumer Reports has always rated Verizon the highest.  But checking the comments of this Yahoo article, and the Verizon customers come out in droves hating on Verizon, not only in number of comments, but also the up/down voting.

I have Sprint, and I’ve been pretty satisfied with them.  They were nice enough to “backdate” my text plan, when my town was issuing text alerts every hour following Hurrican Sandy.  I didn’t have to beg or anything.  Just doing the decent thing (though maybe it helped that I’ve been with them for over 10 years and two phones).

Anyway, I’ve got a pretty good grandfathered plan with Sprint, but if I want to upgrade to their “everything” family plan, it’s going to really cost me alot.  So much actually that it would be cheaper to get a third phone, and create a second account.  So, if I’m going to do that, I’m wondering if I should simply create a second account with someone else instead.

Would love to hear your experiences with the various carriers, or the new ones with pre-paid no-contract plans (that use the network of Sprint and AT&T anyway).  I even saw one Virgin plan that was unlimited data and limited on phone/text, which would suit me just fine as well.

(19) Comments • 2012/12/04 Blogging

Wednesday, November 21, 2012

Morning Joe understands probability

By .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address), 05:21 PM

Read his mea cupla to Nate, and especially the last paragraph.

() CommentsBlogging

Thursday, November 15, 2012

Frequnetists v Bayesians

By .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address), 01:20 AM


http://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/frequentists_vs_bayesians.png

(14) Comments • 2012/11/15 Blogging

Sunday, November 11, 2012

Which polling firm is the best?  Not Gallup!

By .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address), 01:44 AM

Nate Silver shows that Gallup ended up with the worst results.

(1) Comments • 2012/11/12 Blogging

Friday, November 09, 2012

About face: when you are on the wrong side of history, simply don’t stand in history’s way

By .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address), 04:34 PM

Non-sports post.

Immigration reform was a winning issue.  Women’s health rights was a winning issue.  Same-gender rights was a winning issue.  Healthcare was a winning issue.  We know, because we can just look at the more evolved cultures and see where America is going to head.

The GOP seems to admit defeat on some of these issues.  To actually be debating these things is ridiculous.  If you take all these issues off the table, to simply agree with the other side, then you can show the starker differences on the economy.

I can’t believe that Sean Hannity actually said something I agreed with:

We’ve gotta get rid of the immigration issue altogether. It’s simple for me to fix it. I think you control the border first, you create a pathway for those people that are here, you don’t say you gotta go home. And that is a position that I’ve evolved on. Because you know what—it just—it’s gotta be resolved. The majority of people here—if some people have criminal records you can send ‘em home—but if people are here, law-abiding, participating, four years, their kids are born here ... first secure the border, pathway to citizenship ... then it’s done. But you can’t let the problem continue. It’s gotta stop.

(49) Comments • 2012/11/13 Blogging
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