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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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Tuesday, November 25, 2008

Best MopUp guy in 2008

By .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address), 02:58 PM

Buddy Carlyle of the Braves.  His LI is 0.75, meaning that this guy is used in low-leverage situations quite a bit.  He had, for him, a great season.  Compared to everyone else, he had a pretty good season.  For his career, he’s -1.53 wins, which, per 9 innings is -.060 wins (i.e., .440 win%).

64% of his career PA have been as a starter.  So, replacement level would be 64% of .390 plus 36% of .480 (it would be .370 and .460 if in the AL) gives him .422.  So far, including his great 2008 season, he’s performed at a bit above replacement level.

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