Friday, May 20, 2011
AL/NL disparity
Matt compares the performance of players who played in both conferences in the same year. In this past decade, it looks like the hitters ended up with runs created that was about 7% lower compared to their AL peers than NL peers (meaning that AL had the better hitters). 7% of about 4.5 runs is about 0.3 runs per game. We can figure that if you redid with pitchers, you’d get something similar, maybe a bit less. Let’s say 0.2 runs per game. So, a team facing AL competition will end up with a 0.5 run disadvantage.
That’s pretty much what I’ve been using these past few years, that the AL team facing an NL team will have a .550 win% (i.e., +.05 wins, or +0.5 runs).
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