Monday, July 18, 2011
The “Balance” theory
Here is how it works:
Let’s say it is the 9th inning and your team is winning by a run. Your pitcher walks the lead-off batter. The announcer on TV says something like, “Wow, you can’t walk the lead-off batter with a one-run lead. You have to challenge him.” Or, “There is nothing more frustrating for a manager than walking the first batter with a one-run lead in the 9th.”
Now, obviously a walk is not a good thing in that situation, as opposed to an out or even a generic PA. But, the question is whether a walk in that situation is particularly bad. The answer to that question is not necessarily obvious, especially if you are not sabermetrically inclined (like the announcer). But there is an easy way to answer it using the “balance theory.”
Let’s say that you had more than a 1-run lead. What about the walk then? It is now obvious that the lead-off walk is horrendous, since it is nearly equivalent to a home run (other than the double play possibility). Since the 1-run lead and the “more than 1-run” lead are the only two possibilities, if the walk is particularly bad with a “more than 1-run” lead, it HAS to be not so bad (again, comparatively speaking) with a 1-run lead.
That is the “balance theory,” and it can be used to answer many questions like that…
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