Friday, January 22, 2016
In-season aging for older players
?I like the initial concept, I like the targetting of the players. The use of tOPS+ and then trying to adjust it seasonally, I think, was not done with enough care. Seeing the monthly results supports by skepticism.
First, I'd go with wOBA. Secondly, I wouldn't try to adjust it yet. Never start by adjusting. Keep the adjustment for later, otherwise, we don't know what's really going on. Thirdly, use the delta method, weighting the data by the lesser or the two PA (or the harmonic mean). Fourthly, introduce a control group, say players aged 26-29.
So, great start, but I haven't been sold on anything (yet).
Recent comments
Older comments
Page 1 of 150 pages 1 2 3 > Last ›Complete Archive – By Category
Complete Archive – By Date
FORUM TOPICS
Jul 12 15:22 MarcelsApr 16 14:31 Pitch Count Estimators
Mar 12 16:30 Appendix to THE BOOK - THE GORY DETAILS
Jan 29 09:41 NFL Overtime Idea
Jan 22 14:48 Weighting Years for NFL Player Projections
Jan 21 09:18 positional runs in pythagenpat
Oct 20 15:57 DRS: FG vs. BB-Ref
Apr 12 09:43 What if baseball was like survivor? You are eliminated ...
Nov 24 09:57 Win Attribution to offense, pitching, and fielding at the game level (prototype method)
Jul 13 10:20 How to watch great past games without spoilers