Friday, September 20, 2013
BPro ahead of Vegas this year?
These guys went ahead and tested the O/U from Vegas, as well as BPro's pre-season forecast against the "simulated end-of-season" (i.e., current standsing, plus simulated games). Obviously, they were too excited to wait ten days. They show "MSE", but they should take the square root (RMSE), since that gives us numbers we can actually comprehend. BPro is at 7.9, while Vegas is at 8.3.
I definitely would ignore the correlation, since that allows you to adjust the slope, which is ridiculous.
I think the Margin of error (absolute difference) makes the most sense, at least in terms of gambling.
Anyway, in terms of BPro v Vegas, presuming that you would ONLY bet on the extreme differences, this is how they did:
- For the 4 teams that BPro liked more than Vegas (Cubs, Astros, Mets, Yanks, all by 4 1/2 more than Vegas), i.e., bet the over, BPro lost all of them.
- For the 4 teams that BPro was really down on compared to Vegas (Nats, Jays, Phils, Whitesox, all by 4 1/2 less than Vegas), i.e., bet the under, BPro won all of them.
- Then again, on the next 4 teams that BPro was down compared to Vegas (Braves, Orioles, Brewers, Twins, all by 3 1/2 less than Vegas), i.e., bet the under, BPro won 1 of four.
In all, if you bet the over/under for all 30 teams, going with BPro, you'd have won 15 / 29 (and 1 tie).
Basically: don't bet against Vegas.?
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