Rattler Radio

Baseball Prospectus has it all figured out*.

Follow the link to see what a series of computer simulations has discovered for the records of the teams in MLB for the 2010 season.

To take a little suspense out of the click, the computer has the Brewers finishing Tied for 4th with the Astros in the NL Central.

*-Kidding. These projections provide a baseline for future performance.

Alex Remmington has been writing a series of posts about certain "new" stats over at Big League Stew. Today, he tackles Win Shares.

What Win Shares Means: Win Shares was first advanced in a book of the same name that Bill James wrote in 2002. It's an extension of an older stat of his called Runs Created that tries to measure the number of runs that a hitter has put on a scoreboard. (The earliest version of Runs Created was simply the product of OPS x Total Bases. Recent versions take many more offensive outcomes into consideration, including baserunning.)

Win Shares attempts to measure how many wins a hitter or pitcher has personally notched for his team in the standings. Unlike other new-school stats, Win Shares look quite explicitly at the standings: A 90-win team has more Win Shares to allocate than an 80-win team.

Win Shares are defined as 1/3 of a win — three Win Shares are equal to one team win. Why three? Well, the number is arbitrary. Since Win Shares are only whole integer values, James wanted to pick a number that was neither too small, so as not to lose a great deal of information in rounding, nor too big, because the estimators in Win Shares weren't precise enough to differentiate between 1/10 of a win and 2/10 of a win.

Much more at the post to help expand your mind.

Defense. UZR. Go read.

What does it stand for?: Ultimate Zone Rating. Devised by baseball statistician Mitchel Lichtman, it's based on Zone Rating, a defensive stat kept by STATS, Inc. that measures a fielder's success at getting to balls determined to be in his "zone" of the playing field.

How to calculate UZR: The baseball field is divided into 78 zones, 64 of which are used in UZR calculation. (As Lichtman explains, infield line drives, infield pop flies, and outfield foul balls are ignored. Pitchers and catchers are not included.)

Here's what is calculated for each zone: the out rate and the percentage of balls in that zone that turn into outs. The league average out rate is then subtracted from the player's out rate — if this number is negative, it means the player is worse than league average. If it's positive, it means he's better than league average.

That rate is then multiplied by the number of balls that hit in that player's zone. This yields a Zone Rating. To obtain the run value, it's multiplied by the Zone Ratings that are calculated for each zone the fielder covers, and then summed. This sum is a simple, unadjusted UZR. It is then further adjusted for park factors, batted ball speed, which side of the plate the batter was hitting from, the pitcher's groundball/flyball ratio and the number of baserunners and o....

Oh, just go read the post.

The Winter Leagues were off yesterday. No Rattler Alumni Report for today.

To give some actual content to the blog today, here is a link to a post about WAR over at Big League Stew...WAR

Good god, what does it stand for?: Wins Above Replacement. Say it again! Simply put, Wins Above Replacement means: how many wins did that player contribute to his team's win total above and beyond what they would have gotten from a "replacement value" player, someone they could have picked up off the scrap heap for next to nothing?

How they calculate WAR: WAR is probably the most popular total value stat out there today, a single number that attempts to quantify a player's worth by looking at his offense, defense (or pitching), defensive position, and the context of the year and league. (Bill James' Win Shares is another total value stat, but it has been eclipsed in popularity by WAR.)

Need a little more?

WAR is basically one attempt at a Grand Unified Stat, a single number that usefully expresses a player's worth and can be compared to all other players. Dave Cameron just wrote a fascinating piece for ESPN which used WAR analysis to argue that Chase Utley is actually a more valuable player than Albert Pujols, because of the comparative value of their defensive positions and team contracts. Because WAR takes all of this into account, it's a great starting point for argument.

Cardinal fans immediately complained about this article.

Here are some numbers...Please check my math, too.

2009 SEASON AT A GLANCE
Current Streak:.........L2
Last 5 Games:..........2-3
Last 10 Games:.........5-5
2009 Best Mark:........3-0
2008 Worst Mark:......12-21
First Half:...........34-36
Home Record:..........21-15
Road Record:..........13-21
Daytime Record:.......11-11
Night Record:.........23-25
Starters:.............17-25
Relievers:............17-11
Quality Starts:.........14
Saves/Chances:........23/29
Longest Win Streak:......6
Longest Losing Streak:...6
Rattlers Score First:.19-11
Opp. Score First:.....15-25
Comeback Wins:..........19
Lead Entering 8th:....24-2
Tied Entering 8th:.....2-2
Trail Entering 8th:....1-27
Lead Entering 9th:....25-2
Tied Entering 9th:.....2-0
Trail Entering 9th:....0-29
Wins in last AB:.........5
Opp. Wins in last AB:....4
Extra Innings:.........1-1
Double headers:........7-5
Shutouts:..............2-7
One-run games:.........9-7
Scoring 4 or less:....12-28
Scoring 5 or more:....22-8
Allowing 4 or less:...29-12
Allowing 5 or more:....5-24

LONGEST HITTING STREAKS (CURRENT PLAYERS)
Braun.........3 – 3-for-10 (6/13-16)
Delaney.......6 – 7-for-21 (6/10-15)
Dennis........4 – 2x Last: 8-for-15 (5/26-29)
Duran.........7 – 11-for-29 (5/17 GM 1-5/23)
Kemp..........8 – 10-for-29 (5/1-10)
Kjeldgaard....5 – 8-for-21 (5/18-22)
Lawrie........6 – 8-for-20 (6/3-6/20 GM 2)
Marseco.......6 – 2x; Last: 8-for-24 (6/12-17)
McCraw........5 – 7-for-17 (5/25-5/31)
Miller........9 - 12-for-34(4/23 GM 1-4/30)
Sanchez.......9 – 18-for-39 (4/25-5/4)
Vass..........4 – 2x; Last: 8-for-12 (6/16-6/20 GM 2)

2009 STARTS BY BATTING ORDER
1st: Dykstra (18), Miller (18), Marseco (14), Sanchez (20)
2nd: Marseco (19), Miller (3), Delaney (12), Sanchez (27), Duran (9)
3rd: Lawrie (46), Kjeldgaard (1), Green (6), Duran (3), Kemp (14)
4th: Komatsu (1), Kjeldgaard (34), Kemp (14), Vass (1), Lawrie (9), Dennis (5), Delaney (7)
5th: Kjeldgaard (22), Vass (7), Delaney (7), Kemp (16), Miller (4), Duran (1), Dykstra (1), Trejo (1), Dennis (11)
6th: Vass (11), Delaney (7), Trejo (6), Sanchez (6), Zarraga (1), Kemp (9), Miller (4), Duran (7), Dykstra (1), Dennis (10), Kjeldgaard (8)
7th: Delaney (5), Trejo (14), Zarraga (4), Vass (16), Kemp (1), McCraw (2), Sanchez (4), Duran (11),
Miller (2), Dykstra (2), Dennis (6), Braun (1), Kjeldgaard (2)
8th: McCraw (25), Sanchez (1), Zarraga (5), Trejo (6), Marseco (2), Miller (5), Zarraga (3), Dykstra (2), Duran (7), Dennis (2), Vass (8), Delaney (2), Braun (2)
9th: Miller (12), Zarraga (1), Marseco (30), Dykstra (4), McCraw (13), Vass (1), McPhearson (1), Braun (6), Duran (1)

2009 STARTS BY POSITION:
C: McCraw (40), Zarraga (8), Kemp (22)
1B: Kjeldgaard (47), Zarraga (1), Trejo (5), Kemp (17)
2B: Lawrie (52), Duran (4), Sanchez (4), Delaney (1), Braun (9)
3B: Delaney (19), Trejo (16), Sanchez (11), Duran (19), Green (5)
SS: Marseco (65), Sanchez (5)
LF: Miller (2), Vass (10), Delaney (5), Sanchez (13), Dykstra (4), Kjeldgaard (18), Dennis (18)
CF: Dykstra (19), Miller (31), Sanchez (19), McPhearson (1)
RF: Komatsu (1), Miller (17), Vass (30), Sanchez (3), Dykstra (3), Dennis (16)
DH: Vass (4), Delaney (13), Trejo (6), Zarraga (5), Kemp (15), Dykstra (2), Duran (17), Sanchez (1),
Green (1), Lawrie (3), Kjeldgaard (2), Dennis (1)

2009 TIMBER RATTLER PINCH HITTERS
Kemp....0-for-0
Lawrie..0-for-1 (BB)
Trejo...0-for-1 (K)
Vass....1-for-4 (2K, 2B)
Total...1-for-6 (.167)

2009 TEAM HIGHS AND LOWS
Longest Winning Streak:.....6 – 5/16-5/20
Longest Losing Streak:......6 – 4/13-19
Most Runs, Inning:..........5 – 5/31 4th @WMI
Most Runs, Game:...........14 – 5/18 vs. CLN
Most Hits, Inning:..........5 – 2x; Last: 4th 5/23 @BEL
Most Hits, Game:...........17 – 5/3 vs. LAN
Most Doubles, Game:.........5 – 2X; 6/18 @ KC
Most Triples, Game:.........1 – 16x; Last: 6/13 vs. KC
Most Home Runs, Game:.......3 – 3x; Last: 5/26 @ DAY
Most Extra Base Hits, Game:.7 – 5/20 @ KC
Most Stolen Bases, Game:....3 – 5x; Last: 5/13 @ CR
Most Left on Base, Game:...14 – 6/15 @BUR
Most Errors, Game:..........4 – 3x; Last: 5/25 @BEL

Most Strikeouts, Game (Rattler Hitting):...14 – 6/15 @BUR
Most Strikeouts, Game (Rattler Pitching):..14 – 4/9 vs. QC
Most Walks, Game (Rattler Hitting):.........9 – 6/18 @ KC
Most Walks, Game (Rattler Pitching):.......11 – 4/25 @QC
Longest Game by Innings:...................10 - 4/13 vs. FW
Longest Nine Inning Game (by Time):......3:33 - 5/25 @ BEL
Longest Extra Inning Game (by Time):.....2:28 – 4/13 vs. FW
Shortest Nine Inning Game (by Time):.....1:58 – 5/10 @ SB

Largest Crowd (Home):.....5,487 - 4/9 vs. QC
Smallest Crowd (Home):......620 - 4/13 vs. FW
Largest Crowd (Road):....12,870 – 6/20 @ KC
Smallest Crowd (Road):......535 – 6/16 @ BUR
Largest Crowd:...........17,880 – 4/24 vs. PEO @ Miller Park

Biggest Deficit Overcome in Win:
3 - (4x; Last: 6/11 vs. KC trailed 3-0 after top 1st)

Largest Lead Lost in Loss:
3 - (2x; Last: 6/17 @BUR led 6-3 after top 7th)

2009 INDIVIDUAL HIGHS AND LOWS
Longest Hitting Streak:
9 – Erik Miller (4/23 GM 1- 4/30 12-for-34; .353)
9 – Juan Sanchez (4/25-5/4; 18-for-39; .462)

Most Hits, Game:....4 – Juan Sanchez (5/3 vs. LAN)
................... 4 – Brett Lawrie (5/3 vs. LAN)
................... 4 – Taylor Green (5/16 vs. CLN)
................... 4 – Chris Dennis (5/27 @ DAY)
Most Runs, Game:....4 – Brock Kjeldgaard (4/30 vs. GL)

Most Doubles, Game:
2–Several Rattlers; Last: Juan Sanchez (6/11 vs. KC)

Most Triples, Game:
1 – Several Last: Chris Dennis (6/13 vs. KC)

Most Home Runs, Game:..2 – Brock Kjeldgaard (5/20 @ KC)
...................... 2 – Chris Dennis (5/27 @ DAY)
Most Total Bases, Game:.10 – Brock Kjeldgaard (5/20 @ KC)
....................... 10 – Chris Dennis (5/27 @ DAY)

Most RBI, Game:.....4 – Corey Kemp (4/29 vs. GL)
................... 4 – Michael Vass (5/7 vs. BUR)
................... 4 – Taylor Green (5/16 vs. CLN)
................... 4 – Chris Dennis (5/18 vs. CLN)
................... 4 – Brock Kjeldgaard (6/10 vs. KC)

Most Stolen Bases, Game:..3 – Erik Miller (4/23 GM 2 vs. PEO)
Most Innings Pitched, Start:..8.0 – Michael Bowman (5/26 @ DAY)
Most Innings Pitched, Relief:.5.0 – Daniel Meadows (6/11 vs. KC)

Most Strikeouts, Game:..10 – Cody Scarpetta (4/22 vs. PEO)
........................10 – Wily Peralta (5/24 @BEL)

Most Walks, Game:..7 – Evan Frederickson (4/23 GM 2 vs. PEO)

Low-Hit, CG:
Low-Hit (Combined):..1 – Scarpetta and Tyson (5/17-GM 1 vs. CLN)

Longest Winning Streak:..8 – Daniel Meadows
Longest Losing Streak:...4 – Trey Watten

2009 HEAD TO HEAD RECORDS
......ALL...HOME.ROAD
BEL...4-3...2-2..2-1
BUR...3-4...1-2..2-2
CR....2-6...1-3..1-3
CLN...5-3...5-0..0-3
KC....6-5...3-1..3-4
PEO...4-0...4-0..0-0
QC....3-4...3-0..0-4
WEST 27-25.19-8..8-17

......ALL...HOME..ROAD
DAY...1-2...0-0...1-2
FW....0-3...0-3...0-0
GL....2-1...2-1...0-0
LAN...0-3...0-3...0-0
SB....1-2...0-0...1-2
WM....3-0...0-0...3-0
EAST..7-11..2-7...5-4

RECORD BY DAY:
SUN:..6-4
MON:..2-6
TUE:..5-3
WED:..5-6
THU:..5-7
FRI:..5-5
SAT:..6-5

RECORD BY MONTH:
April:..8-11
May:...16-15
June:..10-10

Thanks to Jay at Mariner Minors for posting the link to the following item which led to the item after that...If you can follow that sentence you have an understanding into how my mind works....Scary, no?

This is from Beyond the Boxscore and it puts a monetary value on a Major League team's minor league system.

There is a post about the AL West. Here is the quick-and-dirty criteria used by Victor Wang, a writer at The Hardball Times:

• Divide prospects into different tiers using Baseball America's prospect rankings.
• Find what the average player in a talent pool produces during their cost-controlled years.
  
• Find how much money a team would need to spend to acquire the prospect's production on the free-agent market. For this, Victor applied Studes' work on WSAB and its direct relationship to a player's salary.
  
• Find the savings.
• For those outside of the Baseball America's 100, Victor applied the same process to prospects graded with B's and C's by John Sickels, only with C prospects he further divided them by age. The grades would be seen in any of his top 20 rankings for a given farm system.

Okay? Okay.



Here is the post on the NL Central.

For those who don't want to click that link...Here is a table for you:

Write up...Check that...Pie Chart on the Brewers:

34 dies insquequo Oris Dies!