The finale of a three-part series looking forward to the offseason
Winter 2004: A Reasonable Perspective
After finishing with the team's worst record since 1983, you'd be hard-pressed to find anyone affiliated with the Mariners organization who has something positive to say about the season. The rotation was inconsistent, the offense struggled to score runs, and the bullpen - a strength in seasons past - was torn apart by injuries and inexperience. They managed to avoid the dreaded 100-loss plateau by the slimmest of margins, forcing one manager out the door immediately following the season and bringing in another with experience under similar circumstances. This is as good a place to start as any.
The Offense
The Mariners finished 19th in OBP and 15th in EqA - nothing to write home about, but winding up in the middle of the pack in terms of offensive productivity is better than many would lead you to believe. However, an average offense won't win you too many games without an exceptional pitching staff, so it will be absolutely critical for some of the holdovers to improve upon their 2004 seasons if this team hopes to compete in the near future.
So, what are the chances of this happening? Might as well start from the top and work our way down. Ichiro had an amazing season, setting the all-time hits record and hitting for the highest AL batting average in 24 years. That said, singles rates are difficult to keep consistent on a year-to-year basis, and
some work has already been done to show that Ichiro may have been quite lucky last year. It seems pretty likely that he regresses some in 2005, as Ichiro will find it slightly more difficult to turn balls in play into hits. Not that there's anything wrong with a .301 EqA from your starting right fielder (his career mark) - which would have been eighth in baseball last season - but this is a team that will find it difficult to make up for Ichiro's lost production.
Raul Ibanez and, to a lesser extent, Randy Winn surprised observers by having solid 2004 campaigns. The former staved off age-related decline as he put up the best year of his career, while the latter repeated his decent 2003 season despite moving up the defensive spectrum. Indeed, PECOTA underestimated each player, and they helped keep our offense away from the league's cellar. This should not be construed as a suggestion that Ibanez and Winn will continue to produce at a similar level in 2005, though. They're both over 30 years old, and the same age-related issues from last winter apply once more this time around. While projection systems will take the 2004 season into account and adjust accordingly, both Ibanez and Winn will be pegged for declines next year, and - however minor such declines may be - neither stands a very good chance of making up for Ichiro's probable regression.
Bret Boone looks to be the key to the offense's hopes for resurrection in 2005. A guy who had put up a .307 EqA over the previous three seasons, Boone fell to .265, a level of performance much closer to his pre-Seattle career than his more recent years. His batting average was the lowest it's been since 1997, his walk rate declined while his strikeouts increased, and his .172 isolated power was down 24% from where it had been in his previous three seasons in Seattle. Boone hopes that offseason laser eye surgery will eliminate a mysterious vision problem that he claims plagued him all year long, but we heard the same story about Aurilia, and we all know how that one turned out. You'd like to think that Boone will rebound to capture some of his long-lost magic, but there is a precedent for second basemen around his age hitting the wall, and it seems unlikely that he ever again approaches the kind of offensive numbers we expected of him in 2004. Consider his 2003 season - .278/.339/.462 - as an upper bound, with his career .268/.327/.447 line being a more probable result.
There isn't very much hope for the veterans to experience an offensive resurgence next year, but some of the lost production should be made up for with improvement by younger players, along with more playing time for others. Seattle's catchers had the worst group performance in baseball last year, putting up a .586 OPS that should be eclipsed by Olivo/Wilson with little or no effort. A full season of AB's for Jacobsen and Leone would represent positional improvements over the 2004 versions (and if they don't get 600 at bats apiece, it will be because better players were brought in). If Jose Lopez finds himself as the starting shortstop next April, he'll be hard-pressed to put up a worse year than Rich Aurilia. Even Jeremy Reed could contribute some offense off the bench, although he probably wouldn't hit as well as Winn or Ibanez did last year if given the chance.
The Mariners' offensive core consists of aging veterans surrounded by solid bench bats/role players and a few guys who'll be good a few years down the road. An easy-to-assemble bench of Jacobsen/Leone/Cabrera/Reed/Wilson (please don't make me talk about Spiezio) would already be worth several more runs than last year's version, but the team doesn't have anyone who's going to make up for Ichiro's lost production. For this reason, it is vital for the front office to bring in a few strong bats, because the offense is going to get worse without them.
The Defense
Let's take a quick glance at the roster turnover by position:
- Catcher: Wilson/Olivo (unchanged)
- First Base: Olerud/Spiezio/Jacobsen --> Probable Free Agent
- Second Base: Boone (unchanged)
- Shortstop: Aurilia/Lopez --> Free Agent or Lopez
- Third Base: Spiezio/Leone/Cabrera/Bloomquist --> Probable Free Agent
- Left Field: Ibanez (unchanged)
- Center Field: Winn (unchanged)
- Right Field: Ichiro (unchanged)
Looking up and down the list, you realize that this is a group that probably isn't going to improve upon last year's performance. The Mariners were second in the AL in Defensive Efficiency in 2004, though, so a moderate downgrade would still leave the team in pretty good shape with the glove. The entire outfield (barring a Winn trade) is a year older, and it was considerably worse than it was the year before, but none of the three players is going to lose a step over the winter, so the group should remain profoundly average. The infield will be the problem area. More Olivo means more passed balls from behind the plate. Losing Olerud and replacing him internally (Jacobsen) or externally (Delgado) will result in a net loss with the glove. Boone is a year older, and looked much worse last year than we're accustomed to seeing him. Aurilia was a statue, but Lopez didn't look too good himself, and even Omar Vizquel (who looks like a strong possibility for 2005) has regressed to the point of being slightly below average in the field, according to Clay Davenport's translations. Third Base was a mess, but Spiezio was every bit as good in the field as Adrian Beltre, who could be in Seattle for 2005. Certainly none of the internal candidates for third base are as solid with the glove as Spiezio.
The team won't be hit very hard by the defensive downgrade, as the pitching staff is mostly flyball-oriented, but you'll see more balls drop in for hits than you did last season, which isn't something you want from a team who can't afford to concede any more runs than necessary.
The Pitching
Due to its topical nature, I might as well start with Guardado, who will either stick around for $4.5m next year or join the free agent market. My opinion on the matter is pretty simple: you should never build a team from the back, especially when you're talking about a 34 year old pitcher with arm problems on a team that probably isn't going to compete. Furthermore, Guardado is trying to fix a torn rotator cuff with a little R&R, rather than the recommended surgical procedure, which puts a damper on his chances of returning strong in 2005. If he returns with the Mariners, he probably isn't going to be as effective as he's been over the past four or five years; if he goes to the market, then that's another $4.5m to spend on more important players.
Since I began with Guardado, I might as well get the bullpen out of the way before I move on to the rotation (I know, I know, how counterintuitive). 2004 presented a whole host of young players with the opportunity to establish themselves as ML-caliber pitchers, and a few took advantage of the chance. Scott Atchison, JJ Putz, George Sherrill, and Matt Thornton were all effective (to varying degrees) in more than 130 combined innings of playing time, and committing to them for next season would provide the team with more financial flexibility, as they'd be spending just $1.2m on four relievers. Although none were flawless, they each displayed abilities - Putz succeeding in the closer role, Sherrill getting lefties out, Atchison getting a bunch of strikeouts, and Thornton bridging the gap between the rotation and the late-inning relievers - that every front office considers to be important. All four would have their ups and downs over a full season of work, but relying on cheap, inconsistent relief is better than relying on expensive, inconsistent relief, which brings me to...
...Shigetoshi Hasegawa, who earned more than twice as much in 2004 as those four aforementioned pitchers would make next season combined. Hasegawa isn't a *bad* pitcher, but his walk rate was a career high, and he serves as a perfect example of why giving multiyear contracts to relief pitchers is rarely a good idea. He won't put up an ERA above 5.00 again, but he's not the type to depend on in high-leverage situations, and isn't any better than a whole host of internal options for the bullpen.
Other guys you'll probably see in the bullpen are Ron Villone and Julio Mateo. Villone is a free agent who looks to be a good bet to re-sign with the club, a move that won't cripple the organization in isolation, but which implies a lack of confidence in younger, cheaper options such as Thornton (who is quite similar to Villone, in fact). Villone put up a shiny ERA in relief, and got a bunch of lefties out, but his performance was out of whack with his track record, and he'll find himself sopping up middle innings by the end of the year, if he lasts that long. Mateo, on the other hand, pitched better than his ERA would indicate, but he was bit by the same home run problem that came up from time to time in 2003, along with an increased walk rate. His 2003 performance was closer to his Minor League track record than his 2004 season, so expect him to split the difference going forward, and becoming an underrated cog in the bullpen.
Which brings us to the starting rotation, which will have to dramatically improve upon last year's 4.88 ERA if they want to have even slip hopes of competing. We start with Joel Pineiro, who looked like he'd need TJ surgery until further tests ruled it out (although the same thing happened with Soriano, and we know what became of that). Pineiro's health will be critical in determining the success of the pitching staff, as his absence shifts each starter into a difficult situation while putting a lot of strain on the bullpen. When healthy, Pineiro throws strikes and keeps the ball in the park; he won't blow hitters away, but he doesn't get hit very hard, and quietly eats up 200 innings from the front of the rotation. While he's overmatched as the #1 pitcher in the rotation, he remains the best arm the organization has to offer right now, and should put up an ERA around 3.70 if he's healthy enough to start in 2005. Cross your fingers and hope that the organization takes it easy on him at the start of the year.
Bobby Madritsch was the biggest surprise (biggest *good* surprise, anyway) of the year, logging 88 second-half innings while posting a 3.27 ERA. Going forward, there are reasons to be concerned about his long-term success: he benefited from some good defense last year, while posting marginal walk and strikeout rates. He was also abused more than nearly every other pitcher in baseball, putting a lot of strain on an arm that has a bit of a medical history. However, Madritsch avoided the fate of several other young Seattle pitchers by successfully keeping the ball in the park, allowing just three home runs over the duration of his stay. Such a low longball rate prevents Madritsch from getting himself involved in big innings, which will keep the runs down and make up for some of his free passes. He's not likely to put up another ERA in the low-3's, but Madritsch will be a dependable middle-of-the-rotation starter, at least in the short-term.
Moyer, Franklin, and Meche (post-demotion) all had the same problem last year: home runs. They allowed a collective 97 four-baggers in 527 innings (hr/9 = 1.66), but got to their final marks via three separate pathways. Moyer appears to have lost his pinpoint accuracy, resulting in meatballs getting too much of the plate. Franklin is incapable of putting hitters away, which means more hittable pitches in two-strike counts. Meche looks to have been very aggressive after he was called back up from Tacoma, peppering the strike zone and suffering the occasional consequence. Going forward, who's most likely to change for the better? It won't be Moyer - he isn't about to rediscover lost magic. It won't be Franklin - he's striking out just a batter every other inning over the past three years, and doesn't have the command or groundball tendencies to make up for it. So we're left with Meche, who has good stuff but hasn't been able to find consistent success. He still managed a 3.95 ERA after coming back from AAA, though, and is a pretty good bet to improve in 2005 - look for an ERA somewhere in the neighborhood of 4.35. Moyer and Franklin should remain fairly similar to where they were last year.
It doesn't take a rocket scientist to realize that this group needs a little help.
The Manager
Managers are so adaptive that it's difficult to characterize them as having certain consistent habits or inclinations. Mike Hargrove has managed two completely different teams over his career, and has shown some conflicting tactics through the duration. However, we're still able to pinpoint some of the things that he's done pretty often - he expects a lot of his rotation, he likes to play the matchups with the bullpen, and he's open to playing a little smallball when the team needs to manufacture a run. If that sounds a lot like Bob Melvin, well, that's because it *is* a lot like Bob Melvin. Where Hargrove differs is in the experience category - the new guy has managed teams in the Mariners' situation before, whereas Melvin was flying by the seat of his pants. For that reason, along with the suggestion that Hargrove is a better in-game tactician than Melvin, it looks like this was a pretty good move.
The Offseason
The team has more money to spend than it ever has before.
The team is in as bad a condition as it ever has been before.
If you put those two statements together, then you may extrapolate the plan that the front office will probably follow this winter:
We need to improve the team as fast as possible.
There are upsides and downsides to this, of course: the organization seems to be on the verge of making its first big free agent splash in a long time, but at the same time, the drive towards immediate success could result in unwise allocation of resources. For example, the team is, at this point, without a first baseman. It's possible that the front office jumps at the chance of nabbing Carlos Delgado, an aging, expensive 1B who meets the organization's requirements (e.g. is left-handed), rather than, say, shifting Ibanez to first, Winn to left, and going after Carlos Beltran, who would provide both immediate and long-term productivity from the CF position. Right now, we have no way of determining in which direction the team will go.
However, there is reason for optimism, if only because some of the team's holes match up pretty well with an abundant FA market. We don't have a long-term solution at third base, and Adrian Beltre is available. We need some help in the rotation, and there are several quality arms out there for purchase (Clement, Pavano, Radke, etc). Jose Lopez probably needs another year in the minors to work things out, and Orlando Cabrera and Edgar Renteria have hit the market. If ever there were a year to have money to spend, this is the one, because the Mariners could conceivably approach ST 2005 having added Beltre, Clement, and Renteria to the 25-man roster. Certainly not pieces who will put us over the top, but guys who will remain quality players for a long time, which is more than you can say for most of our recent acquistions over the past few years.
Seattle's pitching and defense, the two facets of the game on which the organization has prided itself, are in rough shape. The offense is just about guaranteed to decline if a key piece or two aren't added. To look at it another way, there is almost no way that the Mariners spend $20-30m this winter without improving the team. Whether or not those improvements are made with an eye towards the future or just immediate success remains to be seen, but Bill Bavasi has been saying all the right things ever since the season ended, and - quite frankly - the fact that we can even talk about signing a guy like Adrian Beltre in the first place is enough to get me excited.