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WO2020031199A1 - Method and system for valuation and forecasting for entities - Google Patents

Method and system for valuation and forecasting for entities Download PDF

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Publication number
WO2020031199A1
WO2020031199A1 PCT/IN2019/050568 IN2019050568W WO2020031199A1 WO 2020031199 A1 WO2020031199 A1 WO 2020031199A1 IN 2019050568 W IN2019050568 W IN 2019050568W WO 2020031199 A1 WO2020031199 A1 WO 2020031199A1
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WO
WIPO (PCT)
Prior art keywords
valuation
user
entity
data
value
Prior art date
Application number
PCT/IN2019/050568
Other languages
French (fr)
Inventor
Rattandeep Harbhajan Joneja
Original Assignee
Covalue Technologies Pvt. Ltd.
Priority date (The priority date is an assumption and is not a legal conclusion. Google has not performed a legal analysis and makes no representation as to the accuracy of the date listed.)
Filing date
Publication date
Application filed by Covalue Technologies Pvt. Ltd. filed Critical Covalue Technologies Pvt. Ltd.
Publication of WO2020031199A1 publication Critical patent/WO2020031199A1/en

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    • GPHYSICS
    • G06COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06QINFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q10/00Administration; Management
    • G06Q10/06Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling
    • G06Q10/063Operations research, analysis or management
    • GPHYSICS
    • G06COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06QINFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q10/00Administration; Management
    • G06Q10/06Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling
    • G06Q10/063Operations research, analysis or management
    • G06Q10/0637Strategic management or analysis, e.g. setting a goal or target of an organisation; Planning actions based on goals; Analysis or evaluation of effectiveness of goals
    • GPHYSICS
    • G06COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06QINFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q40/00Finance; Insurance; Tax strategies; Processing of corporate or income taxes

Definitions

  • the present disclosure relates to data-analytics, and more particularly relates to a method and system for valuation and forecasting based on user specified or system determined changes in value-drivers.
  • business valuation is a process of determining the economic values of a business or a company.
  • business valuation is a process of determining current worth of a business, using objective measures, and evaluating all aspects of the business.
  • business valuation includes company’s management analysis, analysis on market value of the company’s asset, financial analysis including liquidity, turnover, profitability ratio analysis, etc., over a period of time.
  • Such valuations are performed by an analyst or an investor to discover the trends affecting the business over a time, to determine growth or decline in revenues or expenses, changes in capital structures, etc., and hence to make decision on buying or selling the business, to obtain financing or to determine potential for investment.
  • the business may also perform valuations to discover the trends affecting the business over a time, to determine growth or decline in revenues or expenses, etc., or may conduct analysis to determine valuations.
  • DCF discounted cash flow
  • the DCF method uses future free cash flow projections and discounts the future free cash flow projections to arrive at a present value, which may be used to evaluate the potential for investment.
  • the DCF method provides a data on key value drivers of share value, expected growth in operating earnings, capital efficiency, balance sheet capital structure, cost of equity and debt, and expected duration of growth, etc.
  • the present subject matter at least refers a method for performing valuation of an entity and forecasting based thereupon.
  • the method comprises receiving user-input defining information related to the entity.
  • a trailing period data related to the entity may be automatically fetched based upon the user-input.
  • parameters pertaining to one or more value drivers for the entity are predicted based on the fetched trailing period data.
  • At- least one of the user-input, trailing period data and the predicted parameters are analysed to at least generate a report with respect to the entity to thereby enable a business-valuation and financial prediction thereof.
  • Figure 1 illustrates a system for business valuation and forecasting in accordance with an embodiment of the present disclosure
  • Figure 2 illustrates a method for business valuation and forecasting in accordance with an embodiment of the present disclosure
  • FIG. 3 is a block diagram of an exemplary valuation server in accordance with an embodiment of the present disclosure.
  • Figure 4 illustrates an example user interface of the of the valuation application for selecting various types of analysis in accordance with an embodiment of the present disclosure
  • Figure 5 illustrates an example user interface for providing basic information about the company and plan in accordance with an embodiment of the present disclosure
  • Figure 6 illustrates an example user interface displaying an example value driver
  • Figure 7 illustrates an example valuation report in accordance with an embodiment of the present disclosure.
  • Figure 8 illustrates a computing device based implementation of the valuation server of Fig. 3 in accordance with an embodiment of the present disclosure.
  • the embodiments herein disclose a method and system for business valuation and forecasting based on user specified or system determined changes in value drivers.
  • business valuation and forecasting refers to one or more of company’s (business) worth assessment, economic/intrinsic value of the company, capital markets and expectation valuation, price earnings valuation, stock valuation, value augmentation, decryption of price earnings multiple of the company, decryption of price earnings multiple of an index, share buyback, economic breakeven margin, value impact, etc.
  • value drivers refers to information such as sales data, cash flow drivers, balance sheet information such as cash and securities, investment and other assets, debt and obligations, carry forward losses, outstanding shares, debt equity ratio, cost of debt, etc. It has to be noted that the value of the one or more value drivers may be prior period value or may be predicted value.
  • a user may be an investor, analyst or any person interested in business valuation and forecasting
  • may provide basic information such as company name, plan (purpose), prior period (trailing period for which the values/data of the one or more value drivers has to be entered), forecast period, currency, and expected inflation rate to the system.
  • the system fetches trailing period data associated with the one or more value drivers from the one or more databases associated with the one or more financial data vendors. Further, the system may forecast the values of the one or more value drivers based on the trailing period data, history, etc.
  • the system performs analysis on at least one of the trailing period data (i.e., one or more value drivers), forecasted data and the basic information to generate a valuation report, wherein the valuation report comprises one or more of enterprise value, shareholder value, shareholder value per share, future share value, details about future free cash flow, etc.
  • the system provides a detailed report on business valuation and forecasting and enables the investor to determine potential for investment.
  • FIG. 1 illustrates a system for business valuation and forecasting in accordance with an embodiment of the present disclosure.
  • the system 100 comprises a valuation server 105, one or more financial data servers 110 (hereafter referred as financial data server 110), a communication network 115 and one or more user devices 120-1 to 120-N (hereafter referred as user device 120), wherein the user device 120, the financial data server 110 and the valuation server 105 are communicatively connected through the communication network 115.
  • the valuation server 105 may be one of a computer server or a network of computers or a virtual server which provides functionalities or services for other programs or devices such as for the user devices 120-1 to 120-N.
  • the valuation server 105 is a cloud server comprising one or more processors, associated processing modules, interfaces and storage devices communicatively interconnected to one another through one or more communication means for communicating information.
  • the storage devices within the valuation server 105 may include volatile and non-volatile memory devices for storing information/data and instructions to be executed by the one or more processors and for storing temporary variables or other intermediate information during processing.
  • the valuation server 105 provides business valuation service/platform to the one or more user devices 120-1 to 120-N.
  • the user device 120 may be one of a smartphone, a notebook computer, tablet computer and the like capable of connecting to the internet and having other communication capabilities.
  • a user of the user device 120 may download and install a valuation application which enables communication between the user device 120 and the valuation server 105.
  • the user may register with the business valuation platform by providing necessary login credentials such as username, contact information, email address, etc. and the valuation server 105 creates a user profile and records in a database associated with the valuation server 105.
  • the user may access the valuation platform through web browsers by providing URL of the platform.
  • the financial data server 110 may be one of a computer server or a network of computers or a virtual server which provides financial data/information of one or more businesses/companies, wherein the financial data may include but not limited to income statement, balance sheet, cash flow statement, financial ratios, etc.
  • the financial data server comprises data pertaining to one or more value drivers of the company.
  • the financial server 110 may be servers associated with one or more financial data providers such as, for example, Factset IncTM, BloombergTM, dealogicTM, Money. NetTM, etc.
  • a user may be an investor, analyst or any person interested in business valuation and forecasting
  • may provide basic information such as company name, plan (purpose), prior period (trailing period for which the values/data of the one or more value drivers has to be entered), forecast period, currency, and expected inflation rate to the valuation server 105.
  • the valuation server 105 fetches trailing period data associated with the one or more value drivers from the one or more financial data servers 110 associated with the one or more financial data vendors. Further, the valuation server 105 may forecast the values of the one or more value drivers based on the trailing period data, history, etc.
  • the valuation server 105 performs analysis on at least one of the trailing period data (i.e., one or more value drivers), forecasted data and the basic information to generate a valuation report, wherein the valuation report comprises one or more of enterprise value, shareholder value, shareholder value per share, future share value, details about future free cash flow, etc.
  • the valuation server 105 provides a detailed report on business valuation and forecasting and enables the investor to determine potential for investment.
  • the user may also provide the trailing period data associated with the one or more value drivers, for example cash flow drivers, balance sheet information, market valuation, cost of debt and cost of equity, income tax rates and forecast data.
  • the system enables the users to make valuation of a companies, analyse what is built in the stock price and profit from the folly that exists between price and value, create shareholder value, decrypt price earnings multiple of stocks and indices across the world, etc.
  • the valuation server 105 comprises various modules for performing one or more types of analysis and hence to provide detailed report.
  • Fig. 2 illustrates a method of operation with respect to the valuation server 105, in accordance with an embodiment of the present subject matter.
  • the method comprises receiving (step 122) a user-input defining information related to the entity.
  • the user-input is at least one of a company name, a plan, a trailing period for which the values/data of the one or more value drivers has to be entered, forecast period, currency, and expected inflation rate.
  • the method comprises automatically fetching (step 124) trailing period data related to the entity based upon the user-input.
  • the trailing period data is related to values of one or more value drivers, said data either being fetched from one or more financial data servers based on user input or extracted at least as a part of the user-input.
  • the method comprises predicting parameters (step 126) pertaining to one or more value drivers for the entity based on the fetched trailing period data.
  • the prediction of parameters comprises forecasting the values of the one or more value drivers based on the trailing period data and user input.
  • the predicting comprises forecasting the growth rate for a forecast period based on the trailing period data and user input.
  • the predicting comprising forecasting the values of the one or more value drivers defined by at least one of: sales, operating profit, incremental fixed asset investment, incremental net working capital investment, income tax rate, sales growth cash and securities, investment and other assets, minority interest and other liabilities, debt and obligations, carry forward losses, outstanding shares, market valuation and debt equity ratio, and cost of debt and cost of equity.
  • the method comprises analysing (step 128) at-least one of the user- input, historical data and the predicted parameters to at least generate a report with respect to the entity to thereby enable a business-valuation and financial prediction thereof.
  • the report comprises generating a valuation-report comprises one or more of enterprise value, shareholder value, shareholder value per share, future share value, details about future free cash flow, etc.
  • the analysis is executed based on user-input defining the type of analysis to be performed on the trailing period data to achieve a specific type of the business-valuation and financial prediction with respect to the entity.
  • Such type of analysis comprises at least one of:
  • the method optionally comprises enabling an analyst to log valuation of the entity as performed by said analyst and ancillary information related to the entity.
  • the user is allowed to access the logged-valuations and/or the ancillary information. Further, the user is also enabled to customize the logged valuations.
  • FIG. 3 is a block diagram of the exemplary valuation server 105 in accordance with an embodiment of the present disclosure.
  • the valuation server 105 comprises a processor 205, a user database 210, a communication module 215, a data aggregation module 220, an assessment module 225, a know your worth module 227, a capital markets and expectation module 230, perception module 235, a value augmentation module 240, a quick tools module 245, and a pre-defined analysis module 250.
  • the valuation server 105 comprises a memory module for storing instructions to be executed by the processor 205. It has to be noted that the one or more modules 220 to 245 may be implemented by the one or more processors 205.
  • the communication module 215 enables communication between the valuation server 105 and the one or more user devices 120, and between the valuation server 105 and the one or more financial data servers 110 through the communication network 115.
  • the processor 205 creates a user profile in the user database 210.
  • the user database 210 comprises user profiles of all the registered users.
  • the data aggregation module 220 fetches relevant financial data from the one or more financial data servers 110 as a part of step 124. That is, the data aggregation module 220 fetches values/data of one or more value drivers from the business’s income statement, balance sheet, cash flow statement, financial ratios, etc. and temporarily records the same for further analysis by the one or more modules out of 225 to 245.
  • the pre-defined analysis module is a repository of prior conducted valuations and ancillary-information and facilitates customization of said valuation by the user.
  • the user may input the type of analysis required on the trailing period data.
  • the system enables the users to make valuation of a companies, analyse what is built in the stock price and profit from the folly that exists between price and value, create shareholder value, decrypt price earnings multiple of stocks and indices across the world, etc.
  • step 122 may select any of the options, such as“know your worth”,“capital markets and expectations valuation”,“perception”,“value augmentation” and“quick tools” from the valuation application installed in the user device, and based on the user selection, the valuation server 105 performs analysis as a part of step 128 on the trailing period data and the forecasted data to generate a detailed report on business valuation and forecasting.
  • the valuation server 105 performs analysis as a part of step 128 on the trailing period data and the forecasted data to generate a detailed report on business valuation and forecasting.
  • Figure 4 illustrates an exemplary user interface of the of the valuation application for selecting various types of analysis in accordance with an embodiment of the present disclosure and step 122.
  • the user may select any of the modules as discussed with respect to the step 128 in Fig. 2, i.e.“know your worth” 305,“capital markets and expectations valuation” 310,“perception” 315,“value augmentation” 320 and “quick tools” 325 options for performing analysis on various value drivers of the business and hence to perform business valuation and forecasting.
  • a user interested in assessing company’s worth may select“know your worth” 305 option and upon selection, the application redirects the user to a next window where the user may select the company category as shown in Figure 4.
  • the system is configured to valuate start ups and growth or matured companies.
  • Figure 5 illustrates an exemplary user interface for providing basic information about the company and plan in accordance with an embodiment of the present disclosure and in accordance with the step 122.
  • the user may input company name for which the valuation would be conducted, plan that indicates the purpose for example, seed funding, IPO, investment decision, etc., prior period which indicates trailing period for which the values/data of the one or more value drivers has to be fetched or entered (typically 12 months), forecast period indicating number of years for which the user likes to base the valuation on, currency, figures in indicating number scale in which user wish to input or output (in Lakhs, Millions, Crores, etc.) and expected inflation rate of the currency for which the valuation is to be done.
  • the user may click on“save and continue” option and upon clicking, the valuation application communicates the basic information with the user selected option to the valuation server 105.
  • the data aggregation module 220 processes the received data (basic information) and fetches the trailing period data (values of one or more value drivers) for user mentioned trailing period from the one or more financial data servers 110 as a part of step 124.
  • the user may input the values for one or more value drivers for the trailing period as described in later sections.
  • the data aggregation module 220 communicates the received data and fetched trailing period data to the assessment module 225 for further analysis.
  • the assessment module 225 as a part of step 126 is configured to forecast the values of the one or more value drivers based on the trailing period data, history, etc.
  • the user may himself forecast the values of the one or more value drivers and input the same as a part of step 122 using the valuation application.
  • the step 126 is performed partly or its performance is bypassed, thereby leading to a transfer of control from step 124 directly to step 128.
  • Figure 6 illustrates an exemplary user interface displaying an example value driver.
  • the data aggregation module 220 as a part of step 124 fetches the trailing period sales data from the one or more financial data servers and the assessment module 225 forecasts the growth rate for the forecast period based on the trailing period data, history, etc as a part of step 126. Additionally, the user may input or edit the same through the interface shown in Figure 5 as a part of step 122.
  • the data aggregation module 220 fetches one or more required trailing period information (value of the one or more value drivers) from the one or more financial data servers as a part of step 124 and the assessment module 225 forecasts the values of the one or more value drivers as a part of step 126 for further analyses and valuation.
  • the one or more value drivers for assessment may include but not limited to operating profit, incremental fixed asset investment, incremental NWC investment, income tax rate for the forecast period, sales growth cash and securities, investment and other assets, minority interest and other liabilities, debt and obligations, carry forward losses, outstanding shares, market valuation and debt equity ratio, and cost of debt and cost of equity.
  • the assessment module 225 analyses said current data and forecasted data as a part of step 128 based on discounted cash flow model to estimate the attractiveness of an investment opportunity. That is, the assessment module 225 uses said data to compute present value of the company and generate a valuation report. The generated valuation report is displayed to the user and recorded in the user database for further analysis or future reference.
  • Figure 7 illustrates an exemplary valuation report in accordance with an embodiment of the present disclosure.
  • the report provides enterprise value, shareholder value and shareholder value per share.
  • the report comprises details on free cash flow, valuation, shareholder value, etc. for user provided valuation period.
  • the user may click on“free cash flow” option 705 to view details on future sales, operating profit, investments, etc., during the user provided valuation period.
  • the user may select“valuation” option 710 to view detailed report on valuation which comprises Net operating profit after tax for each year, free cash flow, present value of free cash flow, future value per share for each year, etc.
  • the user may share the valuation plan or the valuation report or both with one or more users of the platform using “share” option 715.
  • the platform enables the users to create communities and share the valuation plan or valuation report or both among one or more users of the community.
  • the other users may edit the valuation plan according to their requirements.
  • the user may send the valuation report to any other users through another sub option 720 “email reports”.
  • the assessment module 225 analyses trailing period data and the forecast data and provides a detailed report on the company’s worth as a part of step 128.
  • the capital markets and expectations module 230 analyses stock market prices and one or more associated value drivers to derive expectations value drivers built into the stock market price. That is, the capital markets and expectations module 230 assists the users to determine whether a stock is undervalued or overvalued.
  • the perception module 235 analyses the one or more value drivers associated with stock market prices, price earnings multiple coast of equity and earnings growth, and provide report on what P/E drivers are built in the stock price. Hence the perception module 235 provides report on P/E of a stock based on the earnings growth forecasted and the cost of equity of the company. The module discounts the future earning by the cost of equity to arrive at the present value.
  • the value augmentation module 240 enables the user to analyse the impact of changes in value drivers on shareholder value, evaluate the share buyback program of the company, and compute economic breakeven margin (EBM) and incremental EBM of the company.
  • EBM economic breakeven margin
  • the user may use the quick tools module 245 through the valuation application as a part of step 122 to eventually enable computation of one or more of compound annual growth rate, pre-money valuation, post-money valuation, future value of sales, earnings, interest rates, cost of capital, residual values, future value of the share price, etc. of the company.
  • all the other modules 230 to 245 analyses basic information provided by the user, the trailing period data and the forecasted data to compute or derive and to provide a detailed report on business valuation and forecasting which enables the users to take decision on investments.
  • the user may compute the value of synergy in a merger and acquisition transaction.
  • the method and system/platform disclosed in the present disclosure automates the process of company valuation and forecasting. Further, the system identifies, extracts, aggregates, verifies and interprets data from various sources as part of the valuation process and hence simplifies the valuation process for an end user.
  • the platform allows the users to pull data from financial data servers and the user may input the cash flow value drivers such as sales growth, operating profit margin, incremental fixed asset and incremental net working capital investments, income tax rates, cost of debt and cost of equity manually into the application for the user to complete the valuation.
  • cash flow value drivers such as sales growth, operating profit margin, incremental fixed asset and incremental net working capital investments, income tax rates, cost of debt and cost of equity manually into the application for the user to complete the valuation.
  • a subscribed user may become an analyst upon verification and validation process.
  • the analyst is allowed to share his/her plan data as a part of facility rendered by the pre-defined analysis module 250 in Fig. 3.
  • the module 250 may be exemplarily referred as “Analyst Comer” or“Co-value market”.
  • the pre-defined analysis module 250 is made available to all the subscribed users of the platform.
  • Analysts write stories / analysis of companies and derive their impact on valuations and share them for subscribers to view, analyse and edit.
  • All the subscribed users of the platform may import/clone the shared valuation plans and create/customize a valuation plan according to their requirements.
  • the imported/cloned data may be then modified/edited by the user to suit their purpose.
  • users can read the stories about companies and also import Valuations in the as already undertaken by the analysts and thereby edit the evaluations.
  • the module 250 at-least renders a repository of knowledge available with experts (i.e. certified analysts) to interested users across the world, thereby facilitating investment decision for retail-investors.
  • the platform may be implemented with“Value based Pricing Modules”, wherein such modules enables the companies to calculate pricing of a product or service based on the customer acquisition cost, selected financial parameters and cost of capital.
  • the platform may be implemented with“Customer Lifetime Value” module using which the companies may calculate customer/user life time value of existing and new users, and hence the module enables to take appropriate decisions.
  • Figure 8 shows yet another example implementation in accordance with the embodiment of the present disclosure by depicting a computing device corresponding to the valuation server 105 of Fig. 1. More specifically, the present Figure 9 illustrates example hardware configuration of the valuation server 105 as a computing system 900.
  • the computer system 900 can include a set of instructions that can be executed to cause the computer system 900 to perform any one or more of the methods disclosed.
  • the computer system 900 may operate as a standalone device or may be connected, e.g., using a network, to other computer systems or peripheral devices.
  • the computer system 900 may operate in the capacity of a server or as a client user computer in a server-client user network environment, or as a peer computer system in a peer-to-peer (or distributed) network environment.
  • the computer system 900 can also be implemented as or incorporated across various devices, such as a personal computer (PC), a tablet PC, a personal digital assistant (PDA), a mobile device, a palmtop computer, a laptop computer, a desktop computer, or any other machine capable of executing a set of instructions (sequential or otherwise) that specify actions to be taken by that machine.
  • the computer system 900 may be a mobile computing cum display device capable of being used by a user.
  • the term "system” shall also be taken to include any collection of systems or sub-systems that individually or jointly execute a set, or multiple-sets, of instructions to perform one or more computer functions.
  • the computer system 900 may include a processor 902 e.g., a central processing unit (CPU), a graphics processing unit (GPU), or both.
  • the processor 902 may be a component in a variety of systems.
  • the processor 902 may be part of a standard personal computer or a workstation.
  • the processor 902 may be one or more general processors, digital signal processors, application specific integrated circuits, field programmable gate arrays, servers, networks, digital circuits, analog circuits, combinations thereof, or other now known or later developed devices for analyzing and processing data
  • the processor 902 may implement a software program, such as code generated manually (i.e., programmed).
  • the computer system 900 may include a memory 904, such as a memory 904 that can communicate via a bus 908.
  • the memory 904 may include, but is not limited to computer readable storage media such as various types of volatile and non-volatile storage media, including but not limited to random access memory, read-only memory, programmable read-only memory, electrically programmable read-only memory, electrically erasable read-only memory, flash memory, magnetic tape or disk, optical media and the like.
  • the memory 904 includes a cache or random access memory for the processor 902.
  • the memory 904 is separate from the processor 902, such as a cache memory of a processor, the system memory, or other memory.
  • the memory 904 may be an external storage device or database for storing data.
  • the memory 904 is operable to store instructions executable by the processor 902.
  • the functions, acts or tasks illustrated in the figures or described may be performed by the programmed processor 902 executing the instructions stored in the memory 904.
  • the functions, acts or tasks are independent of the particular type of instructions set, storage media, processor or processing strategy and may be performed by software, hardware, integrated circuits, firm-ware, micro-code and the like, operating alone or in combination.
  • processing strategies may include multiprocessing, multitasking, parallel processing and the like.
  • the computer system 900 may or may not further include a touch- sensitive display unit 910, for outputting determined information as well as receiving a user’s touch-gesture based inputs, such as drag and drop, single tap, multiple-taps, etc.
  • the display 910 may act as an interface for the user to see the functioning of the processor 902, or specifically as an interface with the software stored in the memory 904 or in the drive unit 906.
  • the computer system 900 may include an input device 912 configured to allow a user to interact with any of the components of system 900.
  • the computer system 900 may also include a disk or optical drive unit 906.
  • the disk drive unit 906 may include a computer-readable medium 918 in which one or more sets of instructions 914, e.g. software, can be embedded.
  • the instructions 914 may embody one or more of the methods or logic as described. In a particular example, the instructions 914 may reside completely, or at least partially, within the memory 904 or within the processor 902 during execution by the computer system 900.
  • the present disclosure contemplates a computer-readable medium that includes instructions 914 or receives and executes instructions 914 responsive to a propagated signal so that a device connected to a network 916 can communicate voice, video, audio, images or any other data over the network 916.
  • the instructions 914 may be transmitted or received over the network 916 via a communication port or interface 920 or using a bus 908.
  • the communication port or interface 920 may be a part of the processor 902 or may be a separate component.
  • the communication port 920 may be created in software or may be a physical connection in hardware.
  • the communication port 920 may be configured to connect with the network 916, external media, the display 910, or any other components in computing system 900, or combinations thereof.
  • the connection with the network 916 may be established wirelessly as discussed later. Likewise, the additional connections with other components of the system 900 may be established wirelessly.
  • the network 916 may alternatively be directly connected to the bus 908.
  • the network 916 may include wireless networks, Ethernet AVB networks, or combinations thereof.
  • the wireless network may be a cellular telephone network, an 802.11, 802.16, 802.20, 802.1Q or WiMax network.
  • the network 916 may be a public network, such as the Internet, a private network, such as an intranet, or combinations thereof, and may utilize a variety of networking protocols now available or later developed including, but not limited to TCP/IP based networking protocols.
  • the system is not limited to operation with any particular standards and protocols. For example, standards for Internet and other packet switched network transmission (e.g., TCP/IP, UDP/IP, HTML, HTTP) may be used.
  • the present subject matter at least renders a valuation facility (e.g. an application) comprising an inbuilt-databank that contains raw data, extracted from various financial-databases such Factset Inc.
  • a valuation facility e.g. an application
  • the subscriber of the facility or users are at-least enabled to appropriate databanks to create valuation plans or enter data manually. Furthermore, the users are facilitated to even access readymade or pre-defined valuations and customize the same accordingly.

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Abstract

The present subject matter at least refers a method and system (105, 900) for performing valuation of an entity and forecasting based thereupon. The method comprises receiving (122) user-input defining information related to the entity. A trailing period data related to the entity may be automatically fetched (124) based upon the user-input. Further, parameters pertaining to one or more value drivers for the entity are predicted (126) based on the fetched trailing period data. At-least one of the user-input, trailing period data and the predicted parameters are analysed (128) to at least generate a report with respect to the entity to thereby enable a business-valuation and financial prediction thereof.

Description

METHOD AND SYSTEM FOR VALUATION AND FORECASTING FOR ENTITIES
TECHNICAL FIELD
[001] The present disclosure relates to data-analytics, and more particularly relates to a method and system for valuation and forecasting based on user specified or system determined changes in value-drivers.
BACKGROUND:
[002] Generally, business valuation is a process of determining the economic values of a business or a company. In other words, business valuation is a process of determining current worth of a business, using objective measures, and evaluating all aspects of the business. Typically, business valuation includes company’s management analysis, analysis on market value of the company’s asset, financial analysis including liquidity, turnover, profitability ratio analysis, etc., over a period of time. Such valuations are performed by an analyst or an investor to discover the trends affecting the business over a time, to determine growth or decline in revenues or expenses, changes in capital structures, etc., and hence to make decision on buying or selling the business, to obtain financing or to determine potential for investment. Further, the business may also perform valuations to discover the trends affecting the business over a time, to determine growth or decline in revenues or expenses, etc., or may conduct analysis to determine valuations.
[003] Among various types of business valuation methods, discounted cash flow (DCF) method is used to estimate the attractiveness of an investment opportunity. The DCF method uses future free cash flow projections and discounts the future free cash flow projections to arrive at a present value, which may be used to evaluate the potential for investment. Hence, the DCF method provides a data on key value drivers of share value, expected growth in operating earnings, capital efficiency, balance sheet capital structure, cost of equity and debt, and expected duration of growth, etc.
[004] However, the process of business-valuation is complex and time consuming. In most cases, a business valuation (DCF analysis) is performed manually by an analyst, a certified person, using combination of judgment, knowledge, experience and an understanding of generally accepted valuation principles. While performing business- valuation, the analyst may select a valuation type and one or more methods in determining the business value.
[005] However, there are several difficulties inherent in such approach. For example, the reliance on the analyst’s selection places a heavy reliance on the knowledge and experience of the analyst. Since the process is data dependent, the analyst has to spend a great deal of time in identifying, extracting, aggregating, verifying and interpreting the data from various sources as part of the valuation process. Further, a small change in the input data may result in large changes in the value of the business. Furthermore, the analyst need to work on electronic spread sheets and prepare complicated models to solve problems associated with the business valuation.
[006] Hence, the process of business valuation remains complex and requires substantial-experience. Furthermore, an individual or retail-investor may find the process of business valuation more complex and time consuming, as the process involves data aggregation, interpretation and analysis.
SUMMARY OF THE DISCLOSURE:
[007] Thus there exists a need for a system and method which mitigates at least some of the disadvantages of the state of the art.
[008] This summary is provided to introduce a selection of concepts in a simple- manner that are further described in the detailed description of the disclosure. This summary is not intended to identify key or essential inventive concepts of the subject matter nor is it intended for determining the scope of the disclosure.
[009] The present subject matter at least refers a method for performing valuation of an entity and forecasting based thereupon. The method comprises receiving user-input defining information related to the entity. A trailing period data related to the entity may be automatically fetched based upon the user-input. Further, parameters pertaining to one or more value drivers for the entity are predicted based on the fetched trailing period data. At- least one of the user-input, trailing period data and the predicted parameters are analysed to at least generate a report with respect to the entity to thereby enable a business-valuation and financial prediction thereof.
BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE FIGURES:
[0010] The disclosure will be described and explained with additional specificity and detail with the accompanying figures in which:
[0011] Figure 1 illustrates a system for business valuation and forecasting in accordance with an embodiment of the present disclosure;
[0012] Figure 2 illustrates a method for business valuation and forecasting in accordance with an embodiment of the present disclosure;
[0013] Figure 3 is a block diagram of an exemplary valuation server in accordance with an embodiment of the present disclosure;
[0014] Figure 4 illustrates an example user interface of the of the valuation application for selecting various types of analysis in accordance with an embodiment of the present disclosure;
[0015] Figure 5 illustrates an example user interface for providing basic information about the company and plan in accordance with an embodiment of the present disclosure;
[0016] Figure 6 illustrates an example user interface displaying an example value driver; and
[0017] Figure 7 illustrates an example valuation report in accordance with an embodiment of the present disclosure; and
[0018] Figure 8 illustrates a computing device based implementation of the valuation server of Fig. 3 in accordance with an embodiment of the present disclosure.
[0019] Further, persons skilled in the art to which this disclosure belongs will appreciate that elements in the figures are illustrated for simplicity and may not have necessarily been drawn to scale. Furthermore, in terms of the construction of the device, one or more components of the device may have been represented in the figures by conventional symbols, and the figures may show only those specific details that are pertinent to understanding the embodiments of the present disclosure so as not to obscure the figures with details that will be readily apparent to those of ordinary skill in the art having benefit of the description herein.
DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE EXEMPLARY EMBODIMENTS:
[0020] For the purpose of promoting an understanding of the principles of the disclosure, reference will now be made to the embodiment illustrated in the figures and specific language will be used to describe them. It will nevertheless be understood that no limitation of the scope of the disclosure is thereby intended. Such alterations and further modifications to the disclosure, and such further applications of the principles of the disclosure as described herein being contemplated as would normally occur to one skilled in the art to which the disclosure relates are deemed to be a part of this disclosure.
[0021] It will be understood by those skilled in the art that the foregoing general description and the following detailed description are exemplary and explanatory of the disclosure and are not intended to be restrictive thereof.
[0022] The terms "comprises", "comprising", or any other variations thereof, are intended to cover a non-exclusive inclusion, such that a process or method that comprises a list of steps does not include only those steps but may include other steps not expressly listed or inherent to such a process or a method. Similarly, one or more devices or sub systems or elements or structures or components preceded by "comprises... a" does not, without more constraints, preclude the existence of other devices, other sub-systems, other elements, other structures, other components, additional devices, additional sub-systems, additional elements, additional structures, or additional components. Appearances of the phrase“in an embodiment”,“in another embodiment” and similar language throughout this specification may, but do not necessarily, all refer to the same embodiment.
[0023] Unless otherwise defined, all technical and scientific terms used herein have the same meaning as commonly understood by one of ordinary skill in the art to which this disclosure belongs. The system, methods, and examples provided herein are illustrative only and not intended to be limiting.
[0024] Embodiments of the present disclosure will be described below in detail with reference to the accompanying figures.
[0025] The embodiments herein disclose a method and system for business valuation and forecasting based on user specified or system determined changes in value drivers. The term“business valuation and forecasting” as described herein refers to one or more of company’s (business) worth assessment, economic/intrinsic value of the company, capital markets and expectation valuation, price earnings valuation, stock valuation, value augmentation, decryption of price earnings multiple of the company, decryption of price earnings multiple of an index, share buyback, economic breakeven margin, value impact, etc. Further, the term“value drivers” as described herein refers to information such as sales data, cash flow drivers, balance sheet information such as cash and securities, investment and other assets, debt and obligations, carry forward losses, outstanding shares, debt equity ratio, cost of debt, etc. It has to be noted that the value of the one or more value drivers may be prior period value or may be predicted value.
[0026] In one implementation, a user (may be an investor, analyst or any person interested in business valuation and forecasting) may provide basic information such as company name, plan (purpose), prior period (trailing period for which the values/data of the one or more value drivers has to be entered), forecast period, currency, and expected inflation rate to the system. Upon receiving the basic information from the user, the system fetches trailing period data associated with the one or more value drivers from the one or more databases associated with the one or more financial data vendors. Further, the system may forecast the values of the one or more value drivers based on the trailing period data, history, etc. Then the system performs analysis on at least one of the trailing period data (i.e., one or more value drivers), forecasted data and the basic information to generate a valuation report, wherein the valuation report comprises one or more of enterprise value, shareholder value, shareholder value per share, future share value, details about future free cash flow, etc. Hence, the system provides a detailed report on business valuation and forecasting and enables the investor to determine potential for investment.
[0027] Figure 1 illustrates a system for business valuation and forecasting in accordance with an embodiment of the present disclosure. As shown, the system 100 comprises a valuation server 105, one or more financial data servers 110 (hereafter referred as financial data server 110), a communication network 115 and one or more user devices 120-1 to 120-N (hereafter referred as user device 120), wherein the user device 120, the financial data server 110 and the valuation server 105 are communicatively connected through the communication network 115.
[0028] The valuation server 105 may be one of a computer server or a network of computers or a virtual server which provides functionalities or services for other programs or devices such as for the user devices 120-1 to 120-N. In one implementation, the valuation server 105 is a cloud server comprising one or more processors, associated processing modules, interfaces and storage devices communicatively interconnected to one another through one or more communication means for communicating information. The storage devices within the valuation server 105 may include volatile and non-volatile memory devices for storing information/data and instructions to be executed by the one or more processors and for storing temporary variables or other intermediate information during processing. In one embodiment of the present disclosure, the valuation server 105 provides business valuation service/platform to the one or more user devices 120-1 to 120-N.
[0029] The user device 120 may be one of a smartphone, a notebook computer, tablet computer and the like capable of connecting to the internet and having other communication capabilities. In one embodiment, a user of the user device 120 may download and install a valuation application which enables communication between the user device 120 and the valuation server 105. Upon installation, the user may register with the business valuation platform by providing necessary login credentials such as username, contact information, email address, etc. and the valuation server 105 creates a user profile and records in a database associated with the valuation server 105. Alternatively, the user may access the valuation platform through web browsers by providing URL of the platform.
[0030] The financial data server 110 may be one of a computer server or a network of computers or a virtual server which provides financial data/information of one or more businesses/companies, wherein the financial data may include but not limited to income statement, balance sheet, cash flow statement, financial ratios, etc. In other words, the financial data server comprises data pertaining to one or more value drivers of the company. Hence, the financial server 110 may be servers associated with one or more financial data providers such as, for example, Factset Inc™, Bloomberg™, dealogic™, Money. Net™, etc.
[0031] As described, a user (may be an investor, analyst or any person interested in business valuation and forecasting) may provide basic information such as company name, plan (purpose), prior period (trailing period for which the values/data of the one or more value drivers has to be entered), forecast period, currency, and expected inflation rate to the valuation server 105. Upon receiving the basic information from the user, the valuation server 105 fetches trailing period data associated with the one or more value drivers from the one or more financial data servers 110 associated with the one or more financial data vendors. Further, the valuation server 105 may forecast the values of the one or more value drivers based on the trailing period data, history, etc. Then the valuation server 105 performs analysis on at least one of the trailing period data (i.e., one or more value drivers), forecasted data and the basic information to generate a valuation report, wherein the valuation report comprises one or more of enterprise value, shareholder value, shareholder value per share, future share value, details about future free cash flow, etc. Hence, the valuation server 105 provides a detailed report on business valuation and forecasting and enables the investor to determine potential for investment. It has to be noted that the user may also provide the trailing period data associated with the one or more value drivers, for example cash flow drivers, balance sheet information, market valuation, cost of debt and cost of equity, income tax rates and forecast data. In one embodiment of the present disclosure, the system enables the users to make valuation of a companies, analyse what is built in the stock price and profit from the folly that exists between price and value, create shareholder value, decrypt price earnings multiple of stocks and indices across the world, etc. Accordingly, the valuation server 105 comprises various modules for performing one or more types of analysis and hence to provide detailed report.
[0032] Fig. 2 illustrates a method of operation with respect to the valuation server 105, in accordance with an embodiment of the present subject matter. The method comprises receiving (step 122) a user-input defining information related to the entity. The user-input is at least one of a company name, a plan, a trailing period for which the values/data of the one or more value drivers has to be entered, forecast period, currency, and expected inflation rate.
[0033] Further, the method comprises automatically fetching (step 124) trailing period data related to the entity based upon the user-input. The trailing period data is related to values of one or more value drivers, said data either being fetched from one or more financial data servers based on user input or extracted at least as a part of the user-input.
[0034] Further, the method comprises predicting parameters (step 126) pertaining to one or more value drivers for the entity based on the fetched trailing period data. The prediction of parameters comprises forecasting the values of the one or more value drivers based on the trailing period data and user input. In case of trailing period data fetched as sales data, the predicting comprises forecasting the growth rate for a forecast period based on the trailing period data and user input. In case of trailing period data fetched as value of the one or more value drivers, the predicting comprising forecasting the values of the one or more value drivers defined by at least one of: sales, operating profit, incremental fixed asset investment, incremental net working capital investment, income tax rate, sales growth cash and securities, investment and other assets, minority interest and other liabilities, debt and obligations, carry forward losses, outstanding shares, market valuation and debt equity ratio, and cost of debt and cost of equity.
[0035] Further, the method comprises analysing (step 128) at-least one of the user- input, historical data and the predicted parameters to at least generate a report with respect to the entity to thereby enable a business-valuation and financial prediction thereof. The report comprises generating a valuation-report comprises one or more of enterprise value, shareholder value, shareholder value per share, future share value, details about future free cash flow, etc. The analysis is executed based on user-input defining the type of analysis to be performed on the trailing period data to achieve a specific type of the business-valuation and financial prediction with respect to the entity. Such type of analysis comprises at least one of:
• determination of intrinsic worth of the entity corresponding to the module 305 of
Fig. 4;
• capital markets and expectations valuation corresponding to the module 310 of Fig. 4 and defined by at least one of:
• analysing stock market prices and a divergence thereof from value;
• ascertain stock-valuation;
• perception about the entity as corresponding to the module 315 of Fig. 4 and defined by at least one of:
• derive future price earnings multiple of entities
• decrypt price earnings multiple of entity and indexes; and
• compute impact of value drivers on valuation; and
• value-augmentation as corresponding to the module 320 of Fig. 4 and defined by computation of economic breakeven margin for the entity in respect of a period.
[0036] Further, the method optionally comprises enabling an analyst to log valuation of the entity as performed by said analyst and ancillary information related to the entity. The user is allowed to access the logged-valuations and/or the ancillary information. Further, the user is also enabled to customize the logged valuations.
[0037] Figure 3 is a block diagram of the exemplary valuation server 105 in accordance with an embodiment of the present disclosure. As shown, the valuation server 105 comprises a processor 205, a user database 210, a communication module 215, a data aggregation module 220, an assessment module 225, a know your worth module 227, a capital markets and expectation module 230, perception module 235, a value augmentation module 240, a quick tools module 245, and a pre-defined analysis module 250. Further, the valuation server 105 comprises a memory module for storing instructions to be executed by the processor 205. It has to be noted that the one or more modules 220 to 245 may be implemented by the one or more processors 205. The communication module 215 enables communication between the valuation server 105 and the one or more user devices 120, and between the valuation server 105 and the one or more financial data servers 110 through the communication network 115.
[0038] During operation, when a user registers with the platform by providing essential login credentials, the processor 205 creates a user profile in the user database 210. Hence, the user database 210 comprises user profiles of all the registered users. When the user provides basic information for business valuation, the data aggregation module 220 fetches relevant financial data from the one or more financial data servers 110 as a part of step 124. That is, the data aggregation module 220 fetches values/data of one or more value drivers from the business’s income statement, balance sheet, cash flow statement, financial ratios, etc. and temporarily records the same for further analysis by the one or more modules out of 225 to 245. Unlike other modules 225 to 245, the pre-defined analysis module is a repository of prior conducted valuations and ancillary-information and facilitates customization of said valuation by the user.
[0039] In one implementation corresponding to the step 122, the user may input the type of analysis required on the trailing period data. As described, the system enables the users to make valuation of a companies, analyse what is built in the stock price and profit from the folly that exists between price and value, create shareholder value, decrypt price earnings multiple of stocks and indices across the world, etc. Accordingly, the user as a part of operation of step 122 may select any of the options, such as“know your worth”,“capital markets and expectations valuation”,“perception”,“value augmentation” and“quick tools” from the valuation application installed in the user device, and based on the user selection, the valuation server 105 performs analysis as a part of step 128 on the trailing period data and the forecasted data to generate a detailed report on business valuation and forecasting. The manner in which the system operates to perform business valuation and forecasting is described in detail further below. [0040] Figure 4 illustrates an exemplary user interface of the of the valuation application for selecting various types of analysis in accordance with an embodiment of the present disclosure and step 122. As shown, the user may select any of the modules as discussed with respect to the step 128 in Fig. 2, i.e.“know your worth” 305,“capital markets and expectations valuation” 310,“perception” 315,“value augmentation” 320 and “quick tools” 325 options for performing analysis on various value drivers of the business and hence to perform business valuation and forecasting. For example, a user interested in assessing company’s worth may select“know your worth” 305 option and upon selection, the application redirects the user to a next window where the user may select the company category as shown in Figure 4. In one embodiment, the system is configured to valuate start ups and growth or matured companies.
[0041] Figure 5 illustrates an exemplary user interface for providing basic information about the company and plan in accordance with an embodiment of the present disclosure and in accordance with the step 122. As shown, the user may input company name for which the valuation would be conducted, plan that indicates the purpose for example, seed funding, IPO, investment decision, etc., prior period which indicates trailing period for which the values/data of the one or more value drivers has to be fetched or entered (typically 12 months), forecast period indicating number of years for which the user likes to base the valuation on, currency, figures in indicating number scale in which user wish to input or output (in Lakhs, Millions, Crores, etc.) and expected inflation rate of the currency for which the valuation is to be done. Then the user may click on“save and continue” option and upon clicking, the valuation application communicates the basic information with the user selected option to the valuation server 105.
[0042] Referring back to Figure 3, the data aggregation module 220 processes the received data (basic information) and fetches the trailing period data (values of one or more value drivers) for user mentioned trailing period from the one or more financial data servers 110 as a part of step 124. In one embodiment, the user may input the values for one or more value drivers for the trailing period as described in later sections. Then the data aggregation module 220 communicates the received data and fetched trailing period data to the assessment module 225 for further analysis.
[0043] In one embodiment, the assessment module 225 as a part of step 126 is configured to forecast the values of the one or more value drivers based on the trailing period data, history, etc. Alternatively, the user may himself forecast the values of the one or more value drivers and input the same as a part of step 122 using the valuation application. In such a scenario, either the step 126 is performed partly or its performance is bypassed, thereby leading to a transfer of control from step 124 directly to step 128.
[0044] Figure 6 illustrates an exemplary user interface displaying an example value driver. As shown, the data aggregation module 220 as a part of step 124 fetches the trailing period sales data from the one or more financial data servers and the assessment module 225 forecasts the growth rate for the forecast period based on the trailing period data, history, etc as a part of step 126. Additionally, the user may input or edit the same through the interface shown in Figure 5 as a part of step 122. Similarly, the data aggregation module 220 fetches one or more required trailing period information (value of the one or more value drivers) from the one or more financial data servers as a part of step 124 and the assessment module 225 forecasts the values of the one or more value drivers as a part of step 126 for further analyses and valuation. The one or more value drivers for assessment may include but not limited to operating profit, incremental fixed asset investment, incremental NWC investment, income tax rate for the forecast period, sales growth cash and securities, investment and other assets, minority interest and other liabilities, debt and obligations, carry forward losses, outstanding shares, market valuation and debt equity ratio, and cost of debt and cost of equity.
[0045] Then the assessment module 225 analyses said current data and forecasted data as a part of step 128 based on discounted cash flow model to estimate the attractiveness of an investment opportunity. That is, the assessment module 225 uses said data to compute present value of the company and generate a valuation report. The generated valuation report is displayed to the user and recorded in the user database for further analysis or future reference.
[0046] Figure 7 illustrates an exemplary valuation report in accordance with an embodiment of the present disclosure. As shown, the report provides enterprise value, shareholder value and shareholder value per share. Further, the report comprises details on free cash flow, valuation, shareholder value, etc. for user provided valuation period. The user may click on“free cash flow” option 705 to view details on future sales, operating profit, investments, etc., during the user provided valuation period. Similarly, the user may select“valuation” option 710 to view detailed report on valuation which comprises Net operating profit after tax for each year, free cash flow, present value of free cash flow, future value per share for each year, etc. In one embodiment, the user may share the valuation plan or the valuation report or both with one or more users of the platform using “share” option 715. That is, the platform enables the users to create communities and share the valuation plan or valuation report or both among one or more users of the community. The other users may edit the valuation plan according to their requirements. Alternatively, the user may send the valuation report to any other users through another sub option 720 “email reports”.
[0047] As described, the assessment module 225 analyses trailing period data and the forecast data and provides a detailed report on the company’s worth as a part of step 128. Similarly, the capital markets and expectations module 230 analyses stock market prices and one or more associated value drivers to derive expectations value drivers built into the stock market price. That is, the capital markets and expectations module 230 assists the users to determine whether a stock is undervalued or overvalued.
[0048] Similarly, as a part of step 128, the perception module 235 analyses the one or more value drivers associated with stock market prices, price earnings multiple coast of equity and earnings growth, and provide report on what P/E drivers are built in the stock price. Hence the perception module 235 provides report on P/E of a stock based on the earnings growth forecasted and the cost of equity of the company. The module discounts the future earning by the cost of equity to arrive at the present value.
[0049] Further, as a part of step 128, the value augmentation module 240 enables the user to analyse the impact of changes in value drivers on shareholder value, evaluate the share buyback program of the company, and compute economic breakeven margin (EBM) and incremental EBM of the company.
[0050] Furthermore, the user may use the quick tools module 245 through the valuation application as a part of step 122 to eventually enable computation of one or more of compound annual growth rate, pre-money valuation, post-money valuation, future value of sales, earnings, interest rates, cost of capital, residual values, future value of the share price, etc. of the company. As described with reference to the assessment module 225, all the other modules 230 to 245 analyses basic information provided by the user, the trailing period data and the forecasted data to compute or derive and to provide a detailed report on business valuation and forecasting which enables the users to take decision on investments. Further, using one or more modules of the system, the user may compute the value of synergy in a merger and acquisition transaction.
[0051] Hence the method and system/platform disclosed in the present disclosure automates the process of company valuation and forecasting. Further, the system identifies, extracts, aggregates, verifies and interprets data from various sources as part of the valuation process and hence simplifies the valuation process for an end user.
[0052] In one embodiment, the platform allows the users to pull data from financial data servers and the user may input the cash flow value drivers such as sales growth, operating profit margin, incremental fixed asset and incremental net working capital investments, income tax rates, cost of debt and cost of equity manually into the application for the user to complete the valuation.
[0053] Further, a subscribed user may become an analyst upon verification and validation process. The analyst is allowed to share his/her plan data as a part of facility rendered by the pre-defined analysis module 250 in Fig. 3. As a part of the user interface (e.g. GUI in Fig. 4) or the platform underlying the present subject matter, the module 250 may be exemplarily referred as “Analyst Comer” or“Co-value market”. Specifically, the pre-defined analysis module 250 is made available to all the subscribed users of the platform. As a part of utility of said module 250, in an example, Analysts write stories / analysis of companies and derive their impact on valuations and share them for subscribers to view, analyse and edit. All the subscribed users of the platform may import/clone the shared valuation plans and create/customize a valuation plan according to their requirements. The imported/cloned data may be then modified/edited by the user to suit their purpose. In an example, users can read the Stories about companies and also import Valuations in the as already undertaken by the analysts and thereby edit the evaluations. Hence, the platform underlying the present subject matter provides access to a lot of valuations for many companies across the world. The module 250 at-least renders a repository of knowledge available with experts (i.e. certified analysts) to interested users across the world, thereby facilitating investment decision for retail-investors. [0054] Furthermore, the platform may be implemented with“Value based Pricing Modules”, wherein such modules enables the companies to calculate pricing of a product or service based on the customer acquisition cost, selected financial parameters and cost of capital. Furthermore, the platform may be implemented with“Customer Lifetime Value” module using which the companies may calculate customer/user life time value of existing and new users, and hence the module enables to take appropriate decisions.
[0055] Figure 8 shows yet another example implementation in accordance with the embodiment of the present disclosure by depicting a computing device corresponding to the valuation server 105 of Fig. 1. More specifically, the present Figure 9 illustrates example hardware configuration of the valuation server 105 as a computing system 900. The computer system 900 can include a set of instructions that can be executed to cause the computer system 900 to perform any one or more of the methods disclosed. The computer system 900 may operate as a standalone device or may be connected, e.g., using a network, to other computer systems or peripheral devices.
[0056] In a networked deployment, the computer system 900 may operate in the capacity of a server or as a client user computer in a server-client user network environment, or as a peer computer system in a peer-to-peer (or distributed) network environment. The computer system 900 can also be implemented as or incorporated across various devices, such as a personal computer (PC), a tablet PC, a personal digital assistant (PDA), a mobile device, a palmtop computer, a laptop computer, a desktop computer, or any other machine capable of executing a set of instructions (sequential or otherwise) that specify actions to be taken by that machine. In an example implementation, the computer system 900 may be a mobile computing cum display device capable of being used by a user. Further, while a single computer system 900 is illustrated, the term "system" shall also be taken to include any collection of systems or sub-systems that individually or jointly execute a set, or multiple-sets, of instructions to perform one or more computer functions.
[0057] The computer system 900 may include a processor 902 e.g., a central processing unit (CPU), a graphics processing unit (GPU), or both. The processor 902 may be a component in a variety of systems. For example, the processor 902 may be part of a standard personal computer or a workstation. The processor 902 may be one or more general processors, digital signal processors, application specific integrated circuits, field programmable gate arrays, servers, networks, digital circuits, analog circuits, combinations thereof, or other now known or later developed devices for analyzing and processing data The processor 902 may implement a software program, such as code generated manually (i.e., programmed).
[0058] The computer system 900 may include a memory 904, such as a memory 904 that can communicate via a bus 908. The memory 904 may include, but is not limited to computer readable storage media such as various types of volatile and non-volatile storage media, including but not limited to random access memory, read-only memory, programmable read-only memory, electrically programmable read-only memory, electrically erasable read-only memory, flash memory, magnetic tape or disk, optical media and the like. In one example, the memory 904 includes a cache or random access memory for the processor 902. In alternative examples, the memory 904 is separate from the processor 902, such as a cache memory of a processor, the system memory, or other memory. The memory 904 may be an external storage device or database for storing data. The memory 904 is operable to store instructions executable by the processor 902. The functions, acts or tasks illustrated in the figures or described may be performed by the programmed processor 902 executing the instructions stored in the memory 904. The functions, acts or tasks are independent of the particular type of instructions set, storage media, processor or processing strategy and may be performed by software, hardware, integrated circuits, firm-ware, micro-code and the like, operating alone or in combination. Likewise, processing strategies may include multiprocessing, multitasking, parallel processing and the like.
[0059] As illustrated, the computer system 900 may or may not further include a touch- sensitive display unit 910, for outputting determined information as well as receiving a user’s touch-gesture based inputs, such as drag and drop, single tap, multiple-taps, etc. The display 910 may act as an interface for the user to see the functioning of the processor 902, or specifically as an interface with the software stored in the memory 904 or in the drive unit 906.
[0060] Additionally, the computer system 900 may include an input device 912 configured to allow a user to interact with any of the components of system 900. The computer system 900 may also include a disk or optical drive unit 906. The disk drive unit 906 may include a computer-readable medium 918 in which one or more sets of instructions 914, e.g. software, can be embedded. Further, the instructions 914 may embody one or more of the methods or logic as described. In a particular example, the instructions 914 may reside completely, or at least partially, within the memory 904 or within the processor 902 during execution by the computer system 900.
[0061] The present disclosure contemplates a computer-readable medium that includes instructions 914 or receives and executes instructions 914 responsive to a propagated signal so that a device connected to a network 916 can communicate voice, video, audio, images or any other data over the network 916. Further, the instructions 914 may be transmitted or received over the network 916 via a communication port or interface 920 or using a bus 908. The communication port or interface 920 may be a part of the processor 902 or may be a separate component. The communication port 920 may be created in software or may be a physical connection in hardware. The communication port 920 may be configured to connect with the network 916, external media, the display 910, or any other components in computing system 900, or combinations thereof. The connection with the network 916 may be established wirelessly as discussed later. Likewise, the additional connections with other components of the system 900 may be established wirelessly. The network 916 may alternatively be directly connected to the bus 908.
[0062] The network 916 may include wireless networks, Ethernet AVB networks, or combinations thereof. The wireless network may be a cellular telephone network, an 802.11, 802.16, 802.20, 802.1Q or WiMax network. Further, the network 916 may be a public network, such as the Internet, a private network, such as an intranet, or combinations thereof, and may utilize a variety of networking protocols now available or later developed including, but not limited to TCP/IP based networking protocols. The system is not limited to operation with any particular standards and protocols. For example, standards for Internet and other packet switched network transmission (e.g., TCP/IP, UDP/IP, HTML, HTTP) may be used.
[0063] The present subject matter at least renders a valuation facility (e.g. an application) comprising an inbuilt-databank that contains raw data, extracted from various financial-databases such Factset Inc. The subscriber of the facility or users are at-least enabled to appropriate databanks to create valuation plans or enter data manually. Furthermore, the users are facilitated to even access readymade or pre-defined valuations and customize the same accordingly.
[0064] While specific language has been used to describe the disclosure, any limitations arising on account of the same are not intended. As would be apparent to a person skilled in the art, various working modifications may be made to the method in order to implement the inventive concept as taught herein.
[0065] The figures and the foregoing description give examples of embodiments. Those skilled in the art will appreciate that one or more of the described elements may well be combined into a single functional element. Alternatively, certain elements may be split into multiple functional elements. Elements from one embodiment may be added to another embodiment. For example, orders of processes described herein may be changed and are not limited to the manner described herein. Moreover, the actions of any flow diagram need not be implemented in the order shown; nor do all of the acts necessarily need to be performed. Also, those acts that are not dependent on other acts may be performed in parallel with the other acts. The scope of embodiments is by no means limited by these specific examples. Numerous variations, whether explicitly given in the specification or not, such as differences in structure, dimension, and use of material, are possible. The scope of embodiments is at least as broad as given by the following claims.

Claims

Claims:
1. A method for performing valuation of an entity and forecasting based thereupon, said method comprising:
receiving (step 122) a user-input defining an information related to the entity; automatically fetching (step 124) historical-data related to the entity based upon the user-input;
predicting parameters (step 126) pertaining to one or more value drivers for the entity based on the fetched trailing period data;
analysing (step 128) at-least one of the user-input, historical data and the predicted parameters to at least generate a report with respect to the entity to thereby enable a business-valuation and financial prediction thereof.
2. The method as claimed in claim 1, wherein said generating of report comprises generating a valuation-report comprises one or more of enterprise value, shareholder value, shareholder value per share, future share value, details about future free cash flow, etc.
3. The method as claimed in claim 1, wherein the user input comprises one or more of: a company name, a plan, a trailing period for which the values/data of the one or more value drivers has to be entered, forecast period, currency, and expected inflation rate,
4. The method as claimed in claim 1, wherein the trailing period data is related to values of one or more value drivers, said data either being fetched from one or more financial data servers based on user input or extracted at least as a part of the user-input.
5. The method as claimed in claims 1 and 4, wherein said prediction of parameters comprises forecasting the values of the one or more value drivers based on the trailing period data and user input.
6. The method as claimed in preceding claims, wherein in case of trailing period data fetched as sales data, the predicting comprises forecasting the growth rate for a forecast period based on the trailing period data and user input.
7. The method as claimed in preceding claims, wherein in case of trailing period data fetched as value of the one or more value drivers, the predicting comprising forecasting the values of the one or more value drivers defined by at least one of :
sales, operating profit, incremental fixed asset investment, incremental net working capital investment, income tax rate, sales growth cash and securities, investment and other assets, minority interest and other liabilities, debt and obligations, carry forward losses, outstanding shares, market valuation and debt equity ratio, and cost of debt and cost of equity.
8. The method as claimed in preceding claims, wherein said analysis is executed based on user-input defining the type of analysis to be performed on the trailing period data to achieve a specific type of the business-valuation and financial prediction with respect to the entity, said type of analysis comprising at least one of:
determination of intrinsic worth of the entity;
capital markets and expectations valuation defined by at least one of:
analysing stock market prices and a divergence thereof from value; ascertain stock-valuation;
perception about the entity defined by at least one of:
derive future price earnings multiple of entities decrypt price earnings multiple of entity and indexes; and
compute impact of value drivers on valuation; and
value-augmentation defined by computation of economic breakeven margin for the entity in respect of a period.
9. The method as claimed in preceding claims, further comprising:
enabling an analyst to log valuation of the entity as performed by said analyst and ancillary information related to the entity;
allowing the user to access the logged-valuations and/or the ancillary information; and
facilitating the user to customize the logged valuations.
10. A system (105) for performing valuation of an entity and forecasting based thereupon, said method comprising:
a communication module (215) for receiving a user- input defining an information related to the entity;
a data aggregation module (220) for automatically fetching historical-data related to the entity based upon the user-input; and
a data-assessment module (225) for
predicting parameters pertaining to one or more value drivers for the entity based on the fetched historical data;
analysing at least one of the user-input, historical data and the predicted parameters to at least generate a report with respect to the entity to thereby enable a business-valuation and financial prediction with respect to the entity.
PCT/IN2019/050568 2018-08-05 2019-08-01 Method and system for valuation and forecasting for entities WO2020031199A1 (en)

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WO2021048842A1 (en) * 2019-09-12 2021-03-18 Sdfn Markets Ltd. System and method for monitoring and predicting changes in values of an asset

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US7580876B1 (en) * 2000-07-13 2009-08-25 C4Cast.Com, Inc. Sensitivity/elasticity-based asset evaluation and screening
US20130204804A1 (en) * 2012-02-03 2013-08-08 Open Financial Analytics Pte Ltd Systems and methods for calculating value of a stock
WO2016201527A1 (en) * 2015-06-18 2016-12-22 Xtega Pty Ltd Systems and methods for valuing assets

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Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
US7580876B1 (en) * 2000-07-13 2009-08-25 C4Cast.Com, Inc. Sensitivity/elasticity-based asset evaluation and screening
US20130204804A1 (en) * 2012-02-03 2013-08-08 Open Financial Analytics Pte Ltd Systems and methods for calculating value of a stock
WO2016201527A1 (en) * 2015-06-18 2016-12-22 Xtega Pty Ltd Systems and methods for valuing assets

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