TW201232489A - A travel time prediction and arrival time inquiry system for school bus using HHT technique and grey theory - Google Patents

Abstract

We develop a novel approach that combines the empirical mode decomposition method (EMD) for data analysis and grey theory for travel time prediction to forecast the arrival time at each stop along school bus route. The proposed system begins with collecting real time traffic data from a school bus equipped with geographic positioning system (GPS) and then employs EMD to derived IMF components which are then used as input of GM(1, 1) model for travel time prediction between the current bus position and the next stop. The travel time and arrival time for farther stops are estimated recursively using the most probable historical data retrieved from the database. The prediction result is passed onto a voice reporting system which is designed to provide on-line current position and arrival time information of the school bus for commuters as well as interested travelers.

Description

201232489 VI. Description of the invention: [Technical field of invention] The school vehicle information inquiry system uses four different technologies, namely global satellite positioning technology, resource database system, HHT data processing technology, and gray prediction mode to construct a school bus spot Time voice check m boots early position" Estimate [prior technology] Existing literature and ^ has a school bus information query system developed specifically for commuter school buses - Beixun display function can be seen in the dynamic resources of the city bus station card, Most of the techniques use the historical data of subjective thief to make a direct estimation of time series. Because the historical data is not fully considered, it has a tendency to change according to time, so the prediction is #2^^ or the original number [invention] ^The system architecture of the school bus information inquiry system, please refer to Figure 2, the main invention month of the school vehicle information inquiry system (1) collects real-time traffic data via GPS, and uses the Hill modal decomposition method _) to decompose the original Traffic data letter = | hidden in the data within the trend, the capital 'find = see i5; - associated Μ see Figure 4; Cheng Hao went to integrate the predictions of each 1 Na component. The relevant color prediction system ^ process I estimated the travel time of the school bus to the next station ίΐί, the flow is shown in Figure 7; the relevant school Κ Κ :: 2ΐ ^ t 】 With the telephone line service, the school's fare is apricot & ^ ^ (1) the current location of the school bus; , ° - π, can provide two traffic information: (2) the arrival time of each station of the school bus route. 201232489 [ Brief description of the diagram] Figure 1 is the system architecture diagram of the school bus information inquiry system. Figure 2 is the flow chart of the travel time prediction mode of the school bus information inquiry system. Figure 3 is the flow chart of the database system operation. Figure 4 is the NCU_School_Bus School bus database entity association diagram. Figure 5 is the HHT system flow chart. Figure 6 is the gray prediction system flow chart. Figure 7 is the school bus position voice query system flow chart. Figure 8 is the school bus estimate arrival time voice query System flow chart. [Main component symbol description] 00 School bus travel time prediction and arrival time inquiry system architecture 10 GPS transmission driving data 20 Data processing 21 Data server 22 Data processing (coordinates, time, speed, driving status, etc.) Travel time prediction in 23 sections 24 Historical data estimation 25 Travel time prediction 30 Data output 31 School bus position voice inquiry 32 School bus arrival time voice inquiry

Claims (1)

201232489 VII. Patent application scope: l The system architecture of the inquiry system, including: GPS transmission information; data 2· School bus ttfL search status __, advance-step 3' ψΐΐ f · jS 4. ^ According to the patent application The second-order real-time traffic data, further empirical modal decomposition method to decompose the original traffic number ^ (iS score 5 'to find out the trend hidden inside the data. About = i = ss 5. According to the scope of the patent application The four-term model state function (IMF) component, GM(1,1) is predicted for each IMF component. 彳'式6. According to the prediction results of the IMF components in the fifth item of the patent application scope, the integrated driving is obtained. Speed, and estimate the travel time of the school bus to the next stop. For the gray system process, please refer to Figure 6; 7. Combine the historical database to estimate the travel time between the subsequent stations and the location of the school bus after the arrival of each station. Estimated arrival time voice query system. Please refer to Figure 7 and the recording file for the process of the school bus location voice query system. For the school bus estimated arrival time, please refer to Figure 8 and the recording file. 2. ° °曰