JP4678728B2 - Cogeneration system - Google Patents

Description

  The present invention relates to a cogeneration system that generates electric power and heat by a combined heat and power supply device.

  In recent years, cogeneration systems using electric power and heat have been proposed and put into practical use in order to effectively use energy and increase its efficiency. This cogeneration system is a commercial power supply line that combines a heat and power supply device that generates power and heat (for example, a combination of an internal combustion engine such as a diesel engine and a generator, a fuel cell, etc.) and the power generated from the heat and power supply device. And an inverter for grid connection and a hot water storage device for recovering the heat generated from the cogeneration device and storing it as hot water, and the cogeneration device is controlled by the control means. The combined heat and power device includes a cooling water circulation channel that circulates cooling water, and the hot water storage device includes a hot water storage tank that stores hot water and a hot water circulation channel that circulates hot water in the hot water storage tank, and is provided between the two channels. The heat exchanger performs heat exchange between the cooling water flowing through the cooling water circulation channel and the hot water flowing through the hot water circulation channel, and by this heat exchange, the exhaust heat of the combined heat and power supply device is stored as hot water in a hot water storage tank ( For example, see Patent Document 1).

JP 2002-213313 A

  In such a cogeneration system, when the electric power and heat (collected in the form of hot water) generated by the cogeneration device are consumed as required, the cogeneration device can be operated efficiently, and therefore, The use efficiency of becomes higher. However, when an imbalance occurs in the generated power and heat consumption, the operation efficiency of the combined heat and power supply device is deteriorated, and the energy use efficiency is lowered.

  In a conventional combined heat and power device, an operation pattern of the combined heat and power device is determined based on past operation results, that is, past load data, and the combined operation of the heat and power device is controlled based on this operation pattern. Thus, by controlling based on the past performance, the load state on the operation day can be predicted to some extent, and the combined operation of the thermoelectric generator can be controlled to some extent efficiently.

  However, in the conventional cogeneration system, the operation pattern is determined in consideration of the past load data, but it is not a control for sufficiently reducing the energy consumption in the operation control of the combined heat and power unit. Further improvement of operation control is strongly desired, and the control is also desired to realize efficient control with relatively simple computation.

  An object of the present invention is to provide a cogeneration system that can sufficiently reduce energy consumption of a combined heat and power supply device with relatively simple control.

A cogeneration system according to claim 1 of the present invention includes a cogeneration apparatus that generates electric power and heat, an inverter for systematically connecting electric power generated from the cogeneration apparatus to a commercial power supply line, and the thermoelectric system. A hot water storage device for collecting heat output from the cogeneration device and storing it as hot water, boiler means for generating hot water, and control means for controlling the operation of the cogeneration device, the control means comprising: A cogeneration system that controls the operation of the cogeneration device based on a predicted power load and a predicted heat load in a set time range,
The control means includes a temporary operation pattern setting means for setting a main operation pattern for controlling the operation of the combined heat and power device so as to cover the predicted power load, and the combined heat and power when the temporary operation is performed according to the temporary operation pattern. Predicted heat output calculating means for calculating the predicted heat output of the apparatus, and predicted hot water storage for calculating the predicted amount of stored hot water stored in the hot water storage device when the thermoelectric supply device is temporarily operated according to the temporary operation pattern Heat storage amount calculation means, increase target value calculation means for calculating a predicted hot water storage heat amount increase target value, temporary operation pattern correction means for correcting the temporary operation pattern, and the predicted hot water storage heat amount set minimum heat storage amount An increase target determining means for determining a heat shortage time zone, an increase target pickup means for picking up the heat shortage time zone, and the heat And increasing the target pickup prohibiting means for prohibiting the pickup foot hours, includes a, an increase correction mode setting means for the predictive heat output setting the increase correction mode for correcting an increase in the cogeneration system,
When the predicted hot water storage amount becomes equal to or lower than the set minimum heat storage amount in the set time range and the increase correction mode is set, the target increase value calculation means calculates the prediction calculated by the predicted hot water storage heat amount calculation means. Based on the hot water storage heat amount and the predicted heat load, the predicted hot water storage heat amount increase target value in the heat shortage time zone in which the shortage of heat occurs in the hot water storage device is calculated, and the increase target pickup means is in the set time range The heat shortage time zone generated at the time is sequentially picked up in order of time, and the temporary operation pattern correction means, the temporary power pattern correction means in the time range before the specific heat shortage time zone picked up by the increase target pickup means The temporary operation pattern is corrected so that the predicted heat output is increased by the predicted hot water storage heat amount increase target value. Positively Saishi, the increased target pickup prohibiting means that prohibits the pickup of the heat shortage time period occurring subsequent to when said predicted hot water storage heat storage amount reaches the set maximum heat storage amount or more within a range the setting time Features.

Moreover, the cogeneration system according to claim 2 of the present invention is a thermoelectric cogeneration device that generates electric power and heat, an inverter for systematic connection of electric power generated from the cogeneration device to a commercial electric power supply line, A hot water storage device for collecting and storing the heat output from the cogeneration device as hot water; boiler means for generating hot water; and control means for controlling the operation of the cogeneration device. The means is a cogeneration system that controls the operation of the cogeneration device based on the predicted power load and the predicted heat load in a set time range,
The control means includes a temporary operation pattern setting means for setting a main operation pattern for controlling the operation of the combined heat and power device so as to cover the predicted power load, and the combined heat and power when the temporary operation is performed according to the temporary operation pattern. Predicted heat output calculating means for calculating the predicted heat output of the apparatus, and predicted hot water storage for calculating the predicted amount of stored hot water stored in the hot water storage device when the thermoelectric supply device is temporarily operated according to the temporary operation pattern Increases the predicted heat output of the heat storage unit, heat storage amount calculation means, increase target value calculation means for calculating the predicted hot water storage heat increase target value, temporary operation pattern correction means for correcting the temporary operation pattern, and An increase correction mode setting means for setting an increase correction mode to be corrected, wherein the temporary operation pattern correction means includes the unit for operating heat and power It has a predicted energy reduction ratio calculation means for calculating the expected energy savings ratio in specific power output to the power output of the temporary operation pattern,
When the predicted hot water storage amount becomes equal to or lower than the set minimum heat storage amount in the set time range and the increase correction mode is set, the target increase value calculation means calculates the prediction calculated by the predicted hot water storage heat amount calculation means. Based on the stored hot water storage amount and the predicted heat load, the predicted hot water storage heat amount increase target value in a heat shortage time period in which a shortage of heat occurs in the hot water storage device is calculated. In the time range before the time zone, the temporary operation pattern is corrected so that the predicted heat output of the combined heat and power unit increases the predicted hot water storage heat amount increase target value, and when the temporary operation pattern is corrected, the predicted energy reduction The ratio calculation means calculates the predicted energy reduction ratio for a power generation output range larger than the power generation output of the temporary operation pattern.

Moreover, in the cogeneration system according to claim 3 of the present invention, in addition to the configuration according to claim 2 , the predicted heat output of the combined heat and power supply device is predicted effective in consideration of heat dissipation loss up to the heat shortage time zone. In the increase correction mode, the predicted energy reduction ratio calculation means uses the power generation output of the temporary operation pattern as a base output, and calculates the predicted energy reduction ratio Pp for a specific unit operation time as follows:
Pp = [(Predicted energy reduction when operating the combined heat and power unit when operating the power plant and boiler means at the specific output of the combined heat and power unit)-(Power plant and boiler during the combined output of the combined heat and power unit) Predicted energy savings when operating the combined heat and power unit relative to the operation of the unit)] / [(Predicted effective hot water storage amount at the specific output of the combined heat and power unit)-(Predicted effective hot water storage amount at the base output of the combined heat and power unit) )]
It is characterized by calculating using.

Moreover, in the cogeneration system according to claim 4 of the present invention, in addition to the configuration according to claim 2 or 3 , the temporary operation pattern correction means further sets the predicted energy reduction ratio within a positive value range. Predictive energy reduction ratio selection means for picking up in descending order, and predicted increase hot water storage amount integration means for integrating the predicted increase hot water storage amount that increases when temporarily operating with the power generation output at the picked up predicted energy reduction ratio. A predicted energy reduction ratio recalculating unit that recalculates the predicted energy reduction ratio, and the predicted energy reduction ratio selecting unit is configured such that the integrated value by the predicted increased hot water storage heat amount integrating means is the predicted increased hot water storage heat amount target value. Pick up the predicted energy reduction ratio until it reaches The temporary operation pattern is updated so as to obtain a power generation output corresponding to a power reduction ratio, and the predicted energy reduction ratio recalculation unit is configured to extract the predicted prediction that has been picked up for a specific time period including the picked up predicted energy reduction ratio. Based on the power generation output of the energy reduction ratio, the predicted energy reduction ratio is calculated for a power generation output range larger than the base power generation output.

Further, in the cogeneration system according to claim 5 of the present invention, in addition to the configuration according to claim 2 , the predicted heat output of the combined heat and power supply device is predicted effective in consideration of heat dissipation loss up to the heat shortage time zone. The amount of stored hot water, and the heat output of the combined heat and power supply device is stored in the hot water storage device as hot water, and a part of the heat output is used in the heating device. In the correction mode, using the power generation output of the temporary operation pattern as a base output, the predicted energy reduction ratio Pp of the specific unit operation time is expressed by the following equation:
Pp = [(Predicted energy reduction when operating the combined heat and power unit when operating the power plant and boiler means at the specific output of the combined heat and power unit)-(Power plant and boiler during the combined output of the combined heat and power unit) Predicted energy reduction when operating the combined heat and power unit when the unit is operated)] / {[(Predicted effective hot water storage amount at the specific output of the combined heat and power unit) + (The heat output at the specific output of the combined heat and power unit) Of this, the amount of heat used in the heating system)]-[(Estimated effective hot water storage at the base output of the combined heat and power unit) + (The amount of heat used in the heating unit out of the thermal output at the base output of the combined heat and power unit)]}
It is characterized by calculating using.

Moreover, in the cogeneration system according to claim 6 of the present invention, in addition to the configuration according to claim 2 or 5 , the temporary operation pattern correction means further sets the predicted energy reduction ratio within a positive value range. Predictive energy reduction ratio selection means for picking up in descending order, and predicted increase hot water storage amount integration means for integrating the predicted increase hot water storage amount that increases when temporarily operating with the power generation output at the picked up predicted energy reduction ratio. A predicted energy reduction ratio recalculating means for recalculating the predicted energy reduction ratio; and a predicted heating heat load ratio changing means for changing and setting a load ratio of the predicted heating heat load of the heating device, the predicted energy The reduction ratio selecting means is configured such that the integrated value by the predicted increased hot water storage heat integration means is the predicted hot water storage heat increase target. The predicted energy reduction ratio is picked up until reaching the value, the temporary operation pattern is updated so as to be a power generation output corresponding to the picked up predicted energy reduction ratio, and the predicted energy reduction ratio recalculation means For the specific time zone including the predicted energy reduction ratio, the predicted energy reduction ratio is calculated for a power generation output range larger than the base power generation output based on the power generation output of the picked up predicted energy reduction ratio, and the prediction When the integrated value by the increased hot water storage heat amount integration means does not reach the predicted hot water storage heat amount increase target, the predicted heating heat load ratio changing means changes the setting of the predicted heating heat load ratio of the heating device to a small value, and changes the setting. The predicted energy using the predicted heating heat load ratio Reduction ratio calculation means calculates the predicted energy reduction ratio, the pickup by the predicted energy reduction ratio selection means is characterized by being performed again.

In the cogeneration system according to claim 7 of the present invention, in addition to the configuration according to claim 6 , the predicted heating heat load ratio changing means changes the predicted heating heat load ratio to three stages. In the first pickup of the predicted energy reduction ratio, the predicted heating heat load ratio is set to 100%, and in the next pickup of the predicted energy reduction ratio, the predicted heating heat load ratio is set to 50%. In the pickup of the predicted energy reduction ratio, the predicted heating heat load ratio is set to 0%.

Moreover, in the cogeneration system of Claim 8 of this invention, in addition to the structure in any one of Claims 5-7 , the said estimated hot water storage heat amount calculation means is the hot water stored by the said hot water storage apparatus. The predicted hot water storage heat amount is calculated based on the hot water storage amount and the hot water storage temperature.

In the cogeneration system according to claim 9 of the present invention, in addition to the configuration according to claim 4 or 6 , the temporary operation pattern correction means further prohibits the pickup of the predicted energy reduction ratio. When the predicted hot water storage amount of the predicted hot water storage amount calculation means exceeds a set maximum heat storage amount, the reduction ratio pickup prohibition means prohibits the pickup by the predicted energy reduction ratio selection means. The predicted energy reduction ratio selection means is configured such that the integrated value by the predicted increased hot water storage amount integration means increases the predicted hot water storage amount in a time zone range after the time zone when the predicted hot water storage amount is equal to or greater than the set maximum heat storage amount. Pick up the predicted energy reduction ratio until the target value is reached, and pick up the predicted The temporary operation pattern is updated so that the power generation output corresponding to the energy reduction ratio is obtained, and the predicted energy reduction ratio recalculation unit picks up the predicted energy picked up for a specific time zone including the picked up predicted energy reduction ratio. Based on the power generation output of the reduction ratio, the predicted energy reduction ratio is calculated for a power generation output range larger than the base power generation output.

Further, in the cogeneration system according to claim 10 of the present invention, in addition to the configuration according to claim 4, 6 or 9 , the increase target pickup means detects the heat shortage time zone generated in the set time range. The power generation output range is larger than the power generation output of the temporary operation pattern for the predicted target hot water heat increase target value in the first heat shortage time zone. The predicted energy reduction ratio is calculated with respect to the first energy shortage time zone, the predicted energy reduction ratio selection means picks up the predicted energy reduction ratio in a time zone range before the first heat shortage time zone, and The operation pattern is updated, and the integrated value by the predicted increased hot water storage heat amount integrating means is the first heat shortage time zone. The predicted energy reduction ratio is picked up and the temporary operation pattern is updated repeatedly until the predicted hot water storage heat amount increase target value is reached, and the temporary operation pattern when the predicted hot water storage heat amount increase target value is reached is the first temporary heat pattern. For the predicted hot water storage heat increase target value that is corrected as the operation pattern and in the second heat shortage time zone, the predicted energy reduction ratio calculation means is configured for a power generation output range that is larger than the first temporary operation pattern. The predicted energy reduction ratio is calculated based on the power generation output of the first tentative operation pattern, and the predicted energy reduction ratio selection means is configured to perform the prediction in a time zone range before the second heat shortage time zone. Until the integrated value by the increased hot water storage heat amount integration means reaches the predicted hot water storage heat increase target value in the second heat shortage time zone The predicted energy reduction ratio is picked up, the first temporary operation pattern is updated and corrected as the second temporary operation pattern for each pickup, and thus all the heat up to the nth in the set time range are obtained. Picking up the predicted energy reduction ratio with respect to the predicted increase in hot water storage heat amount during the shortage period and updating the temporary operation pattern are performed, and the nth temporary operation pattern when all pickups are completed is corrected as the temporary operation correction pattern. It is characterized by being.

In the cogeneration system according to an eleventh aspect of the present invention, in addition to the configuration according to any one of the fourth, sixth, ninth, and tenth aspects, the control means further controls the operation of the cogeneration device. A threshold value calculation setting means for calculating and setting an energy reduction ratio threshold value for increasing the output, which is a reference value when the threshold value is calculated. Calculates the temporary operation energy reduction ratio in the power generation output of the temporary operation correction pattern corrected by the temporary operation pattern correction means with respect to the power generation output of the temporary operation pattern for each unit time zone in the time zone range before the shortage time zone Output the minimum value of the temporary operation energy reduction ratio calculated by the temporary operation energy reduction ratio calculation means and the temporary operation energy reduction ratio calculation means. Characterized in that it includes a threshold setting means for setting the energy reduction ratio threshold for temperature.

Moreover, in the cogeneration system according to claim 12 of the present invention, in addition to the configuration according to claim 11 , the control means further includes an operation mode setting means for setting an operation mode of the combined heat and power supply device. When the threshold value is set by the threshold calculation setting means, the operation mode setting means sets a threshold operation mode for controlling the operation of the combined heat and power device using the threshold value, When the threshold is not set, the operation mode setting means sets an electric main operation mode for controlling the operation of the cogeneration device so as to cover the current power load.

Further, in the cogeneration system according to claim 13 of the present invention, in addition to the configuration according to claim 12 , for all time zones in the time zone range from the present time to before the first heat shortage time zone. When the power generation output larger than the power generation output of the temporary operation pattern set by the temporary operation pattern setting means is corrected and set by the temporary operation pattern correction means, the threshold value calculation setting means The operation mode setting means sets the threshold operation mode, and the predicted energy for at least one of the time zones in the time zone range from the current time to before the first heat shortage time zone. Even though the predicted energy reduction ratio calculated by the reduction ratio calculation means includes a positive value, the power generation output of the temporary operation pattern is set. If so, the above threshold operation setting means without setting the threshold value, the operation mode setting means and sets the electric main operation mode.

In the cogeneration system according to the fourteenth aspect of the present invention, in addition to the configuration according to the twelfth or thirteenth aspect , the control means calculates a current energy reduction ratio for calculating a current current energy reduction ratio. And the power generation output setting means for setting the power generation output of the combined heat and power supply device, and in the threshold operation mode, the current energy reduction ratio calculating means covers the current power load. A current energy reduction ratio at a specific power generation output with respect to the current power generation output, and the power generation output setting means sets the maximum power generation output among the power generation outputs corresponding to the current energy reduction ratio exceeding the threshold value to the cogeneration device. It is characterized in that it is set as the power generation output.

In the cogeneration system according to claim 15 of the present invention, in addition to the configuration according to any one of claims 1 to 14 , when the increase correction mode is set by the increase correction mode setting means, When the heating device operates in the current operation time zone corresponding to the predicted heating heat load occurrence time zone predicted to generate the predicted heating heat load in the calculation of the predicted heat load, the time zone corresponding to the predicted heating heat load occurrence time zone In the range, the heat generated in the cogeneration device is used as heating heat of the heating device.

According to a sixteenth aspect of the present invention, there is provided a cogeneration system that generates electric power and heat, an inverter for connecting the electric power generated from the cogeneration apparatus to a commercial power supply line, and A hot water storage device for collecting and storing the heat output from the cogeneration device as hot water; boiler means for generating hot water; and control means for controlling the operation of the cogeneration device. The means is a cogeneration system that controls the operation of the cogeneration device based on a predicted power load and a predicted heat load in a set time range,
The control means includes a temporary operation pattern setting means for setting a main operation pattern for controlling the operation of the combined heat and power device so as to cover the predicted power load, and the combined heat and power when the temporary operation is performed according to the temporary operation pattern. Predicted heat output calculating means for calculating the predicted heat output of the apparatus, and predicted hot water storage for calculating the predicted amount of stored hot water stored in the hot water storage device when the thermoelectric supply device is temporarily operated according to the temporary operation pattern Heat storage amount calculation means, reduction target value calculation means for calculating the predicted hot water storage heat amount reduction target value, temporary operation pattern correction means for correcting the temporary operation pattern, and the predicted hot water storage heat amount is the set maximum heat storage amount a reduction target determining means for determining a heat surplus time period equal to or greater than, the reduction target pickup means for picking up the heat surplus time period, the heat A reduction correction mode setting means for setting a reduction correction mode to reduce correct the predictive heat output of the co-generation unit includes a,
When the predicted hot water storage amount is equal to or greater than the set maximum heat storage amount in the set time range and the reduction correction mode is set, the reduction target value calculation means is calculated by the prediction hot water storage amount calculation means. Based on the stored hot water storage amount and the predicted heat load, the predicted hot water storage heat amount reduction target value of the heat surplus time zone in which the heat storage surplus occurs in the hot water storage device is calculated, and the reduction target pickup means is in the set time range The heat surplus time zone generated at the time is sequentially picked up in order of time, and the temporary operation pattern correcting means is the time range before the specific heat surplus time zone picked up by the reduction target pick-up means in the time range of the cogeneration device The temporary operation pattern is corrected so that the predicted heat output is reduced by the predicted hot water storage heat amount reduction target value. Positively Saishi, the reduction target pickup prohibiting means that prohibits the pickup of the heat surplus time period occurring subsequent to when said predicted hot water storage heat storage amount is below the set minimum amount of stored heat in the range the setting time Features.

A cogeneration system according to claim 17 of the present invention is a thermoelectric cogeneration device that generates electric power and heat, an inverter for systematically connecting the electric power generated from the cogeneration device to a commercial power supply line, A hot water storage device for collecting and storing the heat output from the cogeneration device as hot water; boiler means for generating hot water; and control means for controlling the operation of the cogeneration device. The means is a cogeneration system that controls the operation of the cogeneration device based on a predicted power load and a predicted heat load in a set time range,
The control means includes a temporary operation pattern setting means for setting a main operation pattern for controlling the operation of the combined heat and power device so as to cover the predicted power load, and the combined heat and power when the temporary operation is performed according to the temporary operation pattern. Predicted heat output calculating means for calculating the predicted heat output of the apparatus, and predicted hot water storage for calculating the predicted amount of stored hot water stored in the hot water storage device when the thermoelectric supply device is temporarily operated according to the temporary operation pattern Reducing the predicted heat output of the heat storage unit, heat reduction calculation means, reduction target value calculation means for calculating the predicted hot water storage heat reduction target value, temporary operation pattern correction means for correcting the temporary operation pattern, and the combined heat and power unit A reduction correction mode setting means for setting a reduction correction mode to be corrected, the temporary operation pattern correction means in front of the combined heat and power unit of unit operation time It has a predicted energy reduction ratio calculation means for calculating a predicted energy reduction ratio in specific power output to power output of the temporary operation pattern,
  When the predicted hot water storage amount is greater than or equal to the set maximum heat storage amount in the set time range and the reduction correction mode is set, the reduction target value calculation means is calculated by the prediction hot water storage amount calculation means. Based on the stored hot water storage amount and the predicted heat load, the predicted hot water storage heat amount reduction target value of the heat surplus time zone in which a surplus of heat is generated in the hot water storage device is calculated, and the temporary operation pattern correction means includes the heat The temporary operation pattern is corrected so that the predicted heat output of the combined heat and power supply apparatus decreases the predicted hot water storage heat amount reduction target value in a time range before the surplus time zone, and when the temporary operation pattern is corrected, the predicted energy reduction is performed. The calculating means calculates the predicted energy reduction ratio for a power generation output range smaller than the power generation output of the temporary operation pattern.

Further, in the cogeneration system according to claim 18 of the present invention, in addition to the configuration according to claim 17 , the predicted heat output of the combined heat and power supply device is predicted effective in consideration of heat dissipation loss up to the heat surplus time zone. In the reduction correction mode, the predicted energy reduction ratio calculating means uses the power generation output of the temporary operation pattern as a base output in the reduction correction mode, and calculates the predicted energy reduction ratio Pp for a specific unit operation time as follows:
Pp = [(Estimated energy reduction when operating the combined heat and power unit when the power plant is operated at the specific output of the combined heat and power unit) − (Thermoelectric power when operating the power plant when the combined output of the combined heat and power unit is operated Predicted energy reduction when the cogeneration device is operated)] / [(Estimated effective radiator heat dissipation at the specific output of the cogeneration device)-(Estimated effective radiator heat dissipation at the base output of the cogeneration device)]
It is characterized by calculating using.

Moreover, in the cogeneration system according to claim 19 of the present invention, in addition to the configuration according to claim 17 or 18 , the temporary operation pattern correction means further sets the predicted energy reduction ratio in a negative value range. Predictive energy reduction ratio selection means for picking up in descending order of absolute value and predictive reduction hot water storage quantity for accumulating the predictive reduction hot water quantity that decreases when temporarily operating with the power generation output based on the picked up predictive energy reduction ratio And a predicted energy reduction ratio recalculating means for recalculating the predicted energy reduction ratio, wherein the predicted energy reduction ratio selecting means is configured such that the integrated value by the predicted reduced hot water storage heat amount integrating means is the predicted hot water storage heat amount reduction. Pick up the predicted energy reduction ratio until the target value is reached and pick it up. The temporary operation pattern is updated so that the power generation output corresponding to the predicted energy reduction ratio is obtained, and the predicted energy reduction ratio recalculation unit has been picked up for a specific time zone including the picked up predicted energy reduction ratio. Based on the power generation output corresponding to the predicted energy reduction ratio, the predicted energy reduction ratio is calculated for a power generation output range smaller than the base power generation output.

Moreover, in the cogeneration system according to claim 20 of the present invention, in addition to the configuration according to claim 19 , the temporary operation pattern correction means further reduces the prohibition for the pickup of the predicted energy reduction ratio. When the predicted hot water storage amount of the predicted hot water storage amount calculation means is less than or equal to a set minimum heat storage amount, the reduction ratio pickup prohibition means prohibits the pickup by the predicted energy reduction ratio selection means, In the time zone range after the time zone in which the predicted hot water storage amount is equal to or less than the set minimum heat storage amount, the predicted energy reduction ratio selection unit is configured such that the integrated value by the predicted reduced hot water storage amount integration unit is the predicted hot water storage amount reduction target. The predicted energy reduction ratio is picked up until the value is reached, and the picked up forecast The temporary operation pattern is updated so that the power generation output corresponding to the energy reduction ratio is obtained, and the predicted energy reduction ratio recalculation unit is configured to extract the predicted prediction that has been picked up for a specific time period including the picked up predicted energy reduction ratio. Based on the power generation output corresponding to the energy reduction ratio, the predicted energy reduction ratio is calculated for a power generation output range smaller than the base predicted power generation output.

Moreover, in the cogeneration system according to claim 21 of the present invention, in addition to the configuration according to claim 19 or 20 , the reduction target pick-up means sets the heat surplus time zone generated in the set time range in time order. For the predicted hot water storage heat reduction target value in the first heat surplus time zone, the predicted energy reduction ratio calculation means is configured to generate the power generation output range smaller than the power generation output of the temporary operation pattern. A predicted energy reduction ratio is calculated, and the predicted energy reduction ratio selection means picks up the predicted energy reduction ratio in a time zone range before the first heat surplus time zone, and for each pickup, the first temporary energy reduction rate is selected. When the operation pattern is updated, and the integrated value by the predicted reduced hot water storage heat integration means is the first heat surplus Until the predicted hot water storage heat reduction target value of the belt is reached, the pickup of the predicted energy reduction ratio and the update of the temporary operation pattern are repeatedly performed, and the temporary operation pattern when the predicted hot water storage heat reduction target value is reached is The first temporary operation pattern is corrected as a temporary operation pattern and the power generation output range is smaller than the first temporary operation pattern with respect to the predicted hot water storage heat amount reduction target value in the second heat surplus time zone. The predicted energy reduction ratio is calculated based on the power generation output of the power, and the predicted energy reduction ratio selection means is integrated by the predicted reduced hot water storage heat amount integration means in a time zone range before the second heat surplus time zone. Pick the predicted energy reduction ratio until the value reaches the predicted hot water storage heat reduction target value for the second heat surplus time zone The first tentative operation pattern is updated and corrected as the second tentative operation pattern for each pickup, and thus the heat surplus time zones up to the nth in the set time range are The pickup of the predicted energy reduction ratio with respect to the predicted hot water storage heat reduction target value and the update of the temporary operation pattern are performed, and the nth temporary operation pattern when all pickups are completed is corrected as the temporary operation correction pattern. And

Moreover, in the cogeneration system according to claim 22 of the present invention, in addition to the configuration according to any of claims 19 to 21 , the control means further includes a reference for operation control of the cogeneration device. Threshold value calculation setting means for calculating and setting an energy reduction ratio threshold value for the output to be a value, the threshold value calculation setting means before the first heat surplus time zone from the present time Temporary operation energy reduction ratio for calculating the temporary operation energy reduction ratio in the power generation output of the temporary operation correction pattern corrected by the temporary operation pattern correction means for the power generation output of the temporary operation pattern for each unit time period The minimum absolute value of the temporary operation energy reduction ratio calculated by the calculation means and the temporary operation energy reduction ratio calculation means is reduced. Characterized in that it includes a threshold setting means for setting as because of energy reduction ratio threshold.

In the cogeneration system according to claim 23 of the present invention, in addition to the configuration according to claim 22 , the control means includes an operation mode setting means for setting an operation mode of the combined heat and power supply device. In addition, when the threshold value is set by the threshold value calculation setting means, the operation mode setting means sets a threshold value operation mode for controlling the operation of the cogeneration device using the threshold value. And when the said threshold value is not set, the said operation mode setting means sets the electric main operation mode which carries out operation control of the said combined heat and power supply device so that the present electric power load may be covered.

In addition, in the cogeneration system according to claim 24 of the present invention, in addition to the configuration according to claim 23 , for all time zones in the time zone range from the present time to before the first heat surplus time zone. When the power generation output smaller than the power generation output of the temporary operation pattern set by the temporary operation pattern setting means is corrected and set by the temporary operation pattern correction means, the threshold value calculation setting means The operation mode setting means sets the threshold operation mode, and the predicted energy for at least one of the time zones in the time zone range from the current time to the time before the first heat surplus time zone. Even though the predicted energy reduction ratio calculated by the reduction ratio calculation means includes a negative value, the power generation output of the temporary operation pattern is set. If so, the above threshold operation setting means without setting the threshold value, the operation mode setting means and sets the electric main operation mode.

In the cogeneration system according to claim 25 of the present invention, in addition to the configuration according to claim 23 or 24 , the control means calculates a current energy reduction ratio for calculating a current energy reduction ratio at the present time. And the power generation output setting means for setting the power generation output of the combined heat and power supply device, and in the threshold operation mode, the current energy reduction ratio calculating means covers the current power load. A current energy reduction ratio of the specific power generation output with respect to the current power generation output, and the power generation output setting means sets the minimum power generation output among the power generation outputs corresponding to the current energy reduction ratio of the absolute value exceeding the threshold value as the power generation output. It is set as a power generation output of a combined heat and power device.

In the cogeneration system according to claim 26 of the present invention, in addition to the configuration according to any of claims 16 to 25 , when the reduction correction mode is set by the reduction correction mode setting means, When the heating device is activated during the operating hours, the heat generated by the combined heat and power supply device is used as the heating heat of the heating device.
Moreover, in the cogeneration system of Claim 27 of this invention, in addition to the structure in any one of Claims 1, 2, 16, and 17, hot water in the said hot water storage apparatus is related with the said hot water storage apparatus. When the hot water / air detection sensor detects that the hot water is empty during hot water supply by the hot water storage device, the control means generates a boiler operation signal, and this boiler operation is detected. The boiler means is operated based on a signal.

A cogeneration system according to claim 28 of the present invention is a cogeneration device that generates electric power and heat, an inverter for systematically connecting the electric power generated from the cogeneration device to a commercial power supply line, A hot water storage device for collecting and storing the heat output from the cogeneration device as hot water; boiler means for generating hot water; and control means for controlling the operation of the cogeneration device. The means is a cogeneration system that controls the operation of the cogeneration device based on the predicted power load and the predicted heat load in a set time range,
The control means includes a temporary operation pattern setting means for setting a main operation pattern for controlling the operation of the combined heat and power device so as to cover the predicted power load, and the combined heat and power when the temporary operation is performed according to the temporary operation pattern. Predicted heat output calculating means for calculating the predicted heat output of the apparatus, and predicted hot water storage for calculating the predicted amount of stored hot water stored in the hot water storage device when the thermoelectric supply device is temporarily operated according to the temporary operation pattern Heat storage amount calculation means, and correction mode setting means for setting a correction mode for correcting the predicted heat output of the combined heat and power supply device, wherein the correction mode setting means is calculated by the predicted hot water storage heat amount calculation means. In addition, when the predicted hot water storage amount becomes equal to or less than the set minimum heat storage amount in the set time range, an increase correction mode for increasing and correcting the predicted heat output of the combined heat and power supply device. Set, also set reduction correction mode in which the predicted hot water storage heat storage amount is reduced modify the predicted thermal power of the set time greater than or equal to the specified maximum heat storage amount in the range and the cogeneration device,
Further, in relation to the hot water storage device, a hot water empty detection sensor for detecting that hot water in the hot water storage device is exhausted is provided, and when the hot water empty detection sensor performs empty detection during hot water supply by the hot water storage device, The control means generates a boiler operation signal, and the boiler means is operated based on the boiler operation signal .

Further, in the cogeneration system according to claim 29 of the present invention, in addition to the configuration according to any one of claims 1, 2, 16, 17, and 28, the combined heat and power supply device and the hot water storage device circulate. Water that is connected through a flow path and flows out from the bottom of the hot water storage device flows into the upper portion of the hot water storage device through the circulation flow path and the combined heat and power supply device. Hot water is stored in layers so as to be on the side, a hot water supply channel extends from the upper part of the hot water storage device, and a bypass channel is provided by bypassing a part of the circulation channel. A heating flow path is provided via a heater, and a heating device is provided in the heating circulation flow path, and the boiler means is disposed in the hot water supply flow path and warms water flowing through the hot water supply flow path. With the first boiler means Wherein disposed in the heating flow path, characterized in that it is composed of a second boiler unit to warm the water flowing through the heating passage.

According to the cogeneration system of the first aspect of the present invention, the temporary operation pattern of the main operation pattern is set so as to cover the predicted power load, and the hot water storage when the combined heat and power supply apparatus is temporarily operated by this temporary operation pattern. A predicted hot water storage amount stored in the device is calculated. When the predicted hot water storage amount becomes equal to or less than the set minimum heat storage amount in the set time range, the increase correction mode setting means sets the increase correction mode, and the predicted heat output of the combined heat and power supply device is corrected to be increased. Therefore, the amount of heat generated by the combined heat and power supply device increases, and the occurrence of shortage of hot water in the hot water storage device can be suppressed.
In addition, when the predicted hot water storage amount is equal to or less than the set minimum heat storage amount and the increase correction mode is set, based on the predicted hot water storage amount and the predicted heat load, the heat shortage time zone in which heat shortage occurs, that is, hot water shortage occurs. The predicted insufficient heat quantity is calculated, and this predicted insufficient heat quantity becomes a predicted hot water storage heat quantity increase target value as an increased heat quantity for solving the hot water shortage. And since the temporary operation pattern is corrected so that the predicted heat output of the combined heat and power unit increases the predicted hot water storage heat amount increase target value in the time zone range before the heat shortage time zone, the predicted shortage heat amount in the heat shortage time zone Can be compensated, and the occurrence of shortage of hot water can be almost eliminated.
Furthermore, after the heat shortage time zone in which the heat shortage occurs in the set time range and the predicted target hot water heat increase target value are calculated, the heat shortage time zone that occurs in the set time range is picked up in order of time. Then, the temporary operation pattern is corrected so that the predicted heat output of the combined heat and power supply device increases the predicted target hot water heat increase target value before the heat shortage time zone for the predicted target hot water heat increase target value in the shortage heat shortage period. Therefore, the temporary operation pattern can be easily corrected so as not to cause a shortage of hot water. In addition, the predicted hot water storage increase target value for multiple heat shortage periods that occur in the set time range is also picked up one by one in time order and the temporary operation pattern is corrected sequentially, so the predicted hot water storage increase in the heat shortage time period is increased. Even if a plurality of target values are generated, the temporary operation pattern can be easily corrected so that there is no shortage of hot water.
Furthermore, in this pickup, when the predicted hot water storage amount exceeds the set maximum heat storage amount, pickup in the heat shortage time zone that occurs after that is prohibited, so when the heat shortage is compensated, the predicted hot water storage heat amount becomes excessive. Therefore, it is possible to suppress the occurrence of radiator heat dissipation.
The set minimum heat storage amount is, for example, the amount of heat when the hot water storage amount of the hot water storage device is exhausted. In this case, when it is determined that the hot water storage device is short of hot water in the set time range, the increase correction mode is set. Is set. In addition, by controlling the cogeneration system in this way, the control becomes simple and the occurrence of shortage of hot water can be suppressed without covering the power load.

According to the cogeneration system according to claim 2 of the present invention, when the temporary operation pattern of the main operation pattern is set so as to cover the predicted power load, and the combined heat and power device is temporarily operated by this temporary operation pattern When the predicted hot water storage amount stored in the hot water storage device is calculated, and this predicted hot water storage amount falls below the set minimum heat storage amount in the set time range, the increase correction mode setting means sets the increase correction mode, and the combined heat and power The predicted heat output is increased and corrected. And when this increase correction mode is set, based on the predicted hot water storage amount and the predicted heat load, the predicted shortage heat amount in the heat shortage time zone in which heat shortage, that is, shortage of hot water occurs, is calculated, and this predicted shortage heat amount is calculated. Predicted hot water storage heat increase target value as increased heat quantity to eliminate hot water shortage, so that the predicted heat output of the combined heat and power unit increases the predicted hot water storage heat increase target value in the time zone range before the heat shortage time zone The temporary operation pattern is corrected. When the temporary operation pattern is corrected, the predicted energy reduction ratio at the specific power generation output with respect to the power generation output of the temporary operation pattern is calculated. By using this predicted energy reduction ratio, the predicted hot water storage amount is increased while maintaining energy saving. be able to. Further, since the calculation of the predicted energy reduction ratio is performed in a range larger than the power generation output of the temporary operation pattern, the predicted energy reduction ratio can be calculated relatively easily and efficiently.

Further, according to the cogeneration system according to claim 3 of the present invention, in the increase correction mode, the predicted energy reduction ratio considering the predicted energy of the boiler means for generating hot water is calculated as required. This predicted energy reduction ratio takes into account the operation of the combined heat and power supply unit and boiler means, and by controlling using such a predicted energy reduction ratio, it is relatively easy to perform energy saving control that hardly causes shortage of hot water. Is possible.

Further, according to the cogeneration system according to claim 4 of the present invention, since the predicted energy reduction ratio is picked up in the order of the positive value range, the pickup is in the order in which more energy saving is achieved. By picking up in this way, more efficient energy saving control becomes possible. In addition, since the pickup of the predicted energy reduction ratio is performed until the integrated value of the predicted hot water storage heat amount reaches the predicted hot water storage heat increase target value, the correction of this operating condition can compensate for the heat shortage and suppress the occurrence of hot water shortage. it can. Furthermore, for a specific time zone including the predicted energy reduction ratio that has been picked up, the temporary operation pattern is corrected so that the power generation output corresponds to this predicted energy reduction ratio, and the power generation output that corresponds to the predicted energy reduction ratio that has been picked up Therefore, the predicted energy reduction ratio is recalculated for a range larger than the base power generation output, so that the predicted energy reduction ratio can be calculated more in line with the actual situation.

According to the cogeneration system according to claim 5 of the present invention, in the increase correction mode, the predicted energy reduction ratio considering the predicted energy of the boiler means for generating hot water and the amount of heat used in the heating device is as required. Therefore, it can be advantageously applied to a cogeneration system equipped with a heating device (for example, a floor heating device, a bathroom heating dryer), and its predicted energy reduction ratio is a combined heat and power supply device, boiler means, and heating device. By controlling using such a predicted energy reduction ratio, it is possible to relatively easily perform energy saving control that causes almost no shortage of hot water.

Further, according to the cogeneration system according to claim 6 of the present invention, the predicted energy reduction ratios are picked up in descending order in the range of the positive value, so that more efficient energy saving control is possible, and this prediction is performed. Since the pick-up of the energy reduction ratio is performed until the integrated value of the predicted hot water storage heat amount reaches the predicted hot water storage heat increase target value, the correction of this operating condition can compensate for the heat shortage and suppress the occurrence of the hot water shortage. Also, when the integrated value of the predicted hot water storage heat amount does not reach the predicted hot water storage increase target value, the predicted heating heat load ratio of the heating device is changed to a smaller value, and the predicted energy reduction ratio is recalculated and picked up. Thus, by changing the predicted heating heat load ratio of the heating device, it is possible to suppress the occurrence of shortage of hot water while considering the heat utilization of the heating device.

Further, according to the cogeneration system according to claim 7 of the present invention, the predicted heating load ratio is changed in three stages in order of 100%, 50%, and 0%, so that the combined heat and power supply while suppressing the occurrence of hot water shortage It becomes possible to operate so that the heat generated in the apparatus is used more effectively in the heating apparatus.

Further, according to the cogeneration system according to claim 8 of the present invention, since the predicted hot water storage heat storage amount on the basis of the hot water of the hot water storage amount and the hot water storage temperature of the hot water storage device is calculated, the predicted hot water storage heat storage amount more accurately It can be calculated.

Further, according to the cogeneration system according to claim 9 of the present invention, when the predicted hot water heat storage amount exceeds the set maximum heat storage amount by the pickup of the predicted energy reduction ratio, the pickup of the predicted energy reduction ratio is prohibited, In the time zone range after the time zone when the set maximum heat storage amount is exceeded, the pickup is performed until the integrated value of the predicted increased hot water storage amount reaches the predicted increased hot water storage amount target value. The maximum heat storage amount is, for example, the amount of heat when the hot water storage amount of the hot water storage device is full, and prohibiting the pickup of the predicted energy reduction ratio when it exceeds the set maximum heat storage amount. Until the accumulated value of the predicted increased hot water storage amount reaches the predicted target hot water heat increase target value in the time zone after the time zone when the set maximum heat storage amount is exceeded. Since the pickup of the predicted energy reduction ratio and the update of the temporary operation pattern are continuously performed, it is possible to suppress the occurrence of shortage of hot water while preventing the occurrence of excessive hot water.

Moreover, according to the cogeneration system of Claim 10 of this invention, with respect to the 1st heat | fever shortage time slot | zone, in the time zone range before the time zone, the integrated value of the prediction increase hot water storage amount is. The predicted energy reduction ratio is picked up until the predicted hot water storage heat amount increase target value in the first heat shortage time zone is reached and corrected as the first temporary operation pattern, and for the second heat shortage time zone. The estimated energy reduction ratio is picked up until the integrated value of the predicted increased hot water storage amount reaches the predicted hot water increase target value in the second heat shortage time period, and is corrected as the second temporary operation pattern. Since the calculation is made for each predicted hot water storage heat increase target value in the heat shortage time zone, it is possible to relatively easily and easily correspond to the predicted hot water storage heat increase target values in a plurality of heat shortage time zones. Then, when the pickup for all the predicted hot water storage heat amount increase target values within the set time range is completed, the temporary operation pattern is set as the temporary operation correction pattern. In addition, for the second heat shortage time zone, the predicted energy reduction ratio is calculated based on the power generation output of the first temporary operation pattern for the power generation output range larger than the first temporary operation pattern. Regarding the second heat shortage, the predicted energy reduction ratio is calculated in consideration of the first heat shortage, and the heat shortage can be compensated more in line with the actual situation.

Further, according to the cogeneration system according to claim 11 of the present invention, since the energy reduction ratio threshold value for increasing the output, which is a reference for the operation control of the combined heat and power supply device, is used, the combined heat and power supply device is relatively simple. Energy-saving operation with simple control. The energy reduction ratio threshold value is set for the temporary power generation output of the temporary operation correction pattern with respect to the temporary power generation pattern power generation output for each time zone in the time zone range before the first heat shortage time zone. Since the operation energy reduction ratio is calculated and the minimum value among the calculated temporary operation energy reduction ratios is set as the energy reduction ratio threshold value for increasing the output, the energy saving control can be performed according to the actual situation.

Further, according to the cogeneration system of the twelfth aspect of the present invention, when a threshold value is set, the operation is performed in the threshold value operation mode in which the operation of the cogeneration apparatus is controlled using the threshold value. If the threshold value is not set, operation in the main operation mode is performed to control the combined heat and power system to cover the current power load. By controlling the operation in this way, the occurrence of heat shortage can be suppressed. However, the combined heat and power unit can be operated in an energy saving manner with relatively simple control.

Moreover, according to the cogeneration system according to claim 13 of the present invention, the power generation output of the temporary operation pattern is more than the power generation output of the temporary operation pattern for all the time zones in the time zone from the present time to the time before the first heat shortage time zone. When a large power generation output is set to be corrected, the predicted heat output of the combined heat and power system is increased and corrected as shortage of heat, in other words, shortage of hot water, occurs. An operation mode is set, and the occurrence of insufficient hot water can be suppressed while performing energy-saving operation control. Moreover, in at least one of the time zones in the time zone range from the current time to before the first heat shortage time zone, the power generation output of the temporary operation pattern is set even though the predicted energy reduction ratio includes a positive value. If it is, the threshold operation mode is not permitted and the electric main operation mode is set as it is not necessary to correct the increase in the predicted heat output of the combined heat and power supply device.

In the cogeneration system according to claim 14 of the present invention, in the threshold operation mode, the current energy reduction ratio in the specific power generation output with respect to the current power generation output of the cogeneration device that covers the current power load is calculated. The maximum power generation output corresponding to the current energy reduction ratio exceeding the energy reduction ratio threshold is set as the power generation output of the combined heat and power unit. Can be generated.

According to the cogeneration system according to claim 15 of the present invention, when the increase correction mode is set, if a large amount of heat generated from the combined heat and power supply device is used in the heating device, shortage of hot water in the hot water storage tank occurs. Because there is a risk, when the heating device is operated in the current operating time zone corresponding to the predicted heating heat load occurrence time zone, in the time zone range corresponding to the predicted heating heat load occurrence time zone, The generated heat is used as the heating heat of the heating device. By using the heat in this way, the occurrence of shortage of hot water can be reduced.

According to the cogeneration system according to claim 16 of the present invention, when the temporary operation pattern of the main operation pattern is set so as to cover the predicted power load, and the combined heat and power supply device is temporarily operated by this temporary operation pattern The predicted hot water storage amount stored in the hot water storage device is calculated. When the predicted hot water storage amount becomes equal to or greater than the set maximum heat storage amount in the set time range, the reduction correction mode setting means sets the reduction correction mode, and the predicted heat output of the combined heat and power supply device is reduced and corrected. Therefore, the amount of heat generated by the combined heat and power supply device is reduced, and excessive hot water generation in the hot water storage device can be suppressed.
In addition, when the predicted hot water storage amount is equal to or greater than the set maximum heat storage amount and the reduction correction mode is set, based on the predicted hot water storage amount and the predicted heat load, heat surplus, that is, the heat surplus time zone in which hot water excess occurs The predicted surplus heat amount is calculated, and the predicted surplus heat amount becomes a predicted hot water storage heat amount reduction target value as a reduced heat amount for eliminating the hot water surplus. And, in the time zone range before the heat surplus time zone, the temporary operation pattern is corrected so that the predicted heat output of the combined heat and power unit decreases the predicted hot water storage heat amount reduction target value, so the predicted surplus heat amount in the heat surplus time zone Can be reduced, and wasteful generation of heat due to excess hot water can be almost eliminated.
Furthermore, after the heat surplus time zone in which the heat surplus occurs in the set time range and the predicted hot water storage heat amount reduction target value are calculated, the heat surplus time zone that occurs in the set time range is picked up in order of time. Then, the temporary operation pattern is corrected so that the predicted heat output of the combined heat and power supply unit is reduced before the heat surplus time zone, with respect to the predicted heat storage heat amount reduction target value of the picked-up heat surplus time zone. Therefore, the temporary operation pattern can be easily corrected so that excess hot water does not occur. In addition, the predicted hot water storage reduction target value for multiple heat surplus time zones that occur in the set time range is also picked up one by one in time order and the temporary operation pattern is corrected in order, so the predicted hot water storage heat reduction in the heat surplus time zone is reduced. Even if a plurality of target values are generated, the temporary operation pattern can be easily corrected so as not to cause excess hot water.
Furthermore, when the predicted amount of stored hot water becomes less than the set minimum amount of stored heat, the pickup of the heat surplus time zone that occurs after that is prohibited, so that the predicted amount of stored hot water is prevented from becoming excessive when the heat surplus is eliminated. This can suppress the occurrence of hot water shortage.
Note that the set maximum heat storage amount is, for example, the amount of heat when the hot water storage amount of the hot water storage device becomes full.In this case, when it is determined that there is excess hot water in the hot water storage device within the set time range, the reduction correction is performed. The mode is set. In addition, by controlling the cogeneration system in this way, the control becomes simple and generation of surplus hot water can be suppressed without covering the power load.

According to the cogeneration system according to claim 17 of the present invention, when the temporary operation pattern of the main operation pattern is set so as to cover the predicted power load, and the combined heat and power supply apparatus is temporarily operated by this temporary operation pattern When the predicted amount of stored hot water stored in the hot water storage device is calculated and the predicted amount of stored hot water becomes equal to or greater than the set maximum amount of stored heat in the set time range, the reduction correction mode setting means sets the reduction correction mode. When this reduction correction mode is set, based on the predicted hot water storage amount and the predicted heat load, the surplus heat, that is, the predicted surplus heat amount in the heat surplus time zone in which excessive hot water occurs is calculated, and this predicted surplus heat amount is calculated as the surplus hot water amount. Preliminary operation so that the predicted hot water storage heat reduction target value as a reduction heat amount to eliminate the heat is reduced and the predicted heat output of the combined heat and power unit decreases in the predicted hot water storage heat reduction target value in the time zone range before the heat surplus time zone The pattern is corrected. When the temporary operation pattern is corrected, the predicted energy reduction ratio in the specific power generation output with respect to the power generation output of the temporary operation pattern is calculated. By using this predicted energy reduction ratio, the predicted hot water storage is maintained while maintaining energy saving. The amount of heat can be reduced. Further, since the calculation of the predicted energy reduction ratio is performed for a range smaller than the power generation output of the temporary operation pattern, the predicted energy reduction ratio can be calculated relatively easily and efficiently.

According to the cogeneration system according to claim 18 of the present invention, in the reduction correction mode, it is not necessary to consider the operation of the boiler means, and the predicted energy reduction ratio not considering the boiler means is as required. Since this is calculated, this predicted energy reduction ratio takes into account the operation of the combined heat and power supply system. By controlling using such a predicted energy reduction ratio, it is relatively easy to perform energy saving control with little excess hot water. Can be done. Also in a cogeneration system including a heating device, it is not necessary to consider this heating device in the reduction correction mode, and a predicted energy reduction ratio that does not consider the heating device and boiler means is calculated as required.

Further, according to the cogeneration system of the nineteenth aspect of the present invention, the predicted energy reduction ratio is picked up in descending order of the absolute value within the range of the negative value. Thus, by picking up in this way, more efficient energy saving control becomes possible. In addition, since the pickup of the predicted energy reduction ratio is performed until the integrated value of the predicted hot water storage amount reaches the predicted hot water storage target value, the correction of this operating condition can compensate for the excess heat and suppress the occurrence of excessive hot water. it can. Furthermore, for a specific time period including the picked-up predicted energy reduction ratio, the temporary operation pattern is corrected so that the power generation output corresponding to this predicted reduction ratio is obtained, and the power generation output corresponding to the picked-up predicted energy reduction ratio is Since the predicted energy reduction ratio is recalculated for a range smaller than the base power generation output, the predicted energy reduction ratio can be calculated more in line with the actual situation.

Further, according to the cogeneration system according to claim 20 of the present invention, when the predicted hot water heat storage amount is less than or equal to the set minimum heat storage amount by the pickup of the predicted energy reduction ratio, the pickup of the predicted energy reduction ratio is prohibited. The pickup is performed until the integrated value of the predicted reduced hot water storage amount reaches the predicted hot water storage amount reduction target value in the time zone range after the time zone when the set minimum heat storage amount is reached. The set minimum heat storage amount is, for example, the amount of heat when the hot water storage amount of the hot water storage device is exhausted, and by prohibiting the pickup of the predicted energy reduction ratio when it becomes less than the set minimum heat storage amount, Insufficient (hot water shortage) can be prevented and continued until the integrated value of the predicted reduced hot water storage amount reaches the predicted hot water storage target reduction value in the time zone after the time zone when the heat storage amount is below the set minimum heat storage amount Thus, since the pickup of the predicted energy reduction ratio and the update of the temporary operation pattern are performed, it is possible to suppress the occurrence of excess hot water while preventing the occurrence of shortage of hot water.

Moreover, according to the cogeneration system according to claim 21 of the present invention, for the first heat surplus time zone, the integrated value of the predicted reduced hot water storage amount is in the time zone range before that time zone. The predicted energy reduction ratio is picked up until the predicted hot water storage heat reduction target value in the first heat surplus time zone is reached and corrected as the first temporary operation pattern, and for the second heat surplus time zone. The estimated energy reduction ratio is picked up until the integrated value of the predicted reduced hot water storage amount reaches the predicted hot water reduction target value in the second heat surplus time period, and is corrected as the second temporary operation pattern. Since the calculation is performed for each predicted hot water storage heat amount reduction target value of the surplus heat time zone, it is possible to relatively easily and easily correspond to the predicted hot water storage heat amount reduction target values of the plurality of heat surplus time zones Then, when the pickup for all the predicted hot water storage amount reduction target values within the set time range is completed, the temporary operation pattern is set as the temporary operation correction pattern. In addition, for the second heat surplus time zone, the predicted energy reduction ratio is calculated based on the power generation output of the first temporary operation pattern for the power generation output range smaller than the first temporary operation pattern. For the second heat surplus, the predicted energy reduction ratio is calculated in consideration of the first heat surplus, and it is possible to eliminate the heat surplus in accordance with the actual situation. .

Further, according to the cogeneration system according to the twenty-second aspect of the present invention, since the energy reduction ratio threshold value for output reduction that is a reference for the operation control of the combined heat and power device is used, the combined heat and power device is relatively simple. Energy-saving operation is possible with simple control. In addition, this energy reduction ratio threshold value is set for temporary power generation output of the temporary operation correction pattern with respect to power generation output of the temporary operation pattern for each time zone in the time zone range before the first heat surplus time zone. Since the operating energy reduction ratio is calculated and the minimum absolute value of the calculated temporary operating energy reduction ratio is set as a threshold value for output reduction, energy saving control can be performed in accordance with the actual situation.

According to the cogeneration system of claim 23 of the present invention, when a threshold value is set, the threshold value operation mode for controlling the operation of the combined heat and power unit using this threshold value is performed. If the threshold is not set, operation in the main operation mode is performed to control the combined heat and power supply system so as to cover the current power load. However, the combined heat and power unit can be operated in an energy saving manner with relatively simple control.

Moreover, according to the cogeneration system according to claim 24 of the present invention, the power generation output of the temporary operation pattern is more than the power generation output of the tentative operation pattern for all the time zones in the time zone range from the present time to before the first heat surplus time zone. When a small power generation output is set to be corrected, the predicted heat output of the combined heat and power unit has been reduced and corrected as surplus heat, in other words, excess hot water, has occurred. An operation mode is set, and it is possible to suppress the occurrence of excess hot water while performing energy-saving operation control. In addition, in at least one of the time zones in the time zone range from the current time to before the first heat surplus time zone, the power generation output of the temporary operation pattern is set even though the predicted energy reduction ratio includes a negative value. If it is, the threshold operation mode is not permitted and the electric main operation mode is set as it is not necessary to correct and reduce the predicted heat output of the combined heat and power supply device.

In the cogeneration system according to claim 25 of the present invention, in the threshold operation mode, the current energy reduction ratio in the specific power generation output with respect to the current power generation output of the cogeneration device that covers the current power load is calculated. Because the minimum power generation output among the power generation outputs corresponding to the absolute value of the current energy reduction ratio exceeding the energy reduction ratio threshold is set as the power generation output of the combined heat and power unit, it is redundant while controlling the operation of the combined heat and power unit with energy saving. Heat dissipation can be avoided.

Further, according to the cogeneration system of claim 26 of the present invention, when the reduction correction mode is set, if the use of heat generated from the combined heat and power device is small, this heat is dissipated wastefully. Therefore, when the heating device is activated during the current operation time, the heat generated in the combined heat and power supply device is used as the heating heat of the heating device, and thus the generation of heat radiation can be suppressed by using the heat. .
According to the cogeneration system of claim 27 of the present invention, the hot water storage sensor is provided with a hot water / air detection sensor, and when this hot water / air detection sensor detects the sky, the boiler means operates to generate hot water. Therefore, the operation control of the boiler means can be simplified, and hot water can be supplied from the boiler means when the hot water is insufficient.

According to the cogeneration system according to claim 28 of the present invention, when the temporary operation pattern of the main operation pattern is set so as to cover the predicted power load, and the combined heat and power unit is temporarily operated by this temporary operation pattern The predicted amount of stored hot water stored in the hot water storage device is calculated. When the predicted hot water storage amount becomes equal to or less than the set minimum heat storage amount in the set time range, the increase correction mode is set and the predicted heat output of the combined heat and power supply device is increased and corrected. In addition, when the predicted hot water storage amount is within the set time range and is equal to or greater than the set maximum heat storage amount, the reduction correction mode is set, and the predicted heat output of the combined heat and power supply device is reduced and corrected. Therefore, when the heat storage amount of the hot water storage device decreases, the heat generation amount of the combined heat and power supply device is corrected to increase, and the occurrence of shortage of hot water in the hot water storage device can be suppressed, and when the heat storage amount of the hot water storage device increases, It is corrected so that the amount of heat generated by the combined heat and power supply device is reduced, and the generation of excess hot water in the hot water storage device can be suppressed.
Also, the hot water storage sensor is provided with a hot water detection sensor, and when this hot water detection sensor detects the sky, the boiler means is activated to generate hot water. Hot water can be supplied from the means.

Furthermore, according to the cogeneration system according to claim 29 of the present invention, the combined heat and power supply device and the hot water storage device are connected via the circulation flow path, and the bypass flow path that bypasses a part of the circulation flow path is heated. Since the heating flow path is provided via the exchanger, the first boiler means is provided in the hot water supply flow path extending from the hot water supply apparatus, and the second boiler means is provided in the heating flow path. With the configuration, the heat generated in the combined heat and power supply device can be used for the heating device, and the amount of stored hot water stored as hot water in the hot water storage device can be calculated relatively easily and almost accurately.

  Hereinafter, an embodiment of a cogeneration system according to the present invention will be described with reference to the accompanying drawings. 1 is a system block diagram schematically illustrating a cogeneration system according to an embodiment, and FIG. 2 is a block diagram schematically illustrating a part of a control system of the cogeneration system of FIG. FIG. 4 is a block diagram specifically showing an increasing side correcting means in the control system of FIG. 2, and FIG. 4 is a block diagram showing specifically a reducing side correcting means in the control system of FIG.

  In FIG. 1, the illustrated cogeneration system includes a combined heat and power supply device 2 that generates electric power and heat, and a hot water storage device 4 that collects the heat generated by the combined heat and power supply device 2 and stores it as hot water. The illustrated combined heat and power supply device 2 includes a fuel cell 6, and exhaust heat generated in the fuel cell 6 is stored as hot water in the hot water storage device 4. The cogeneration apparatus 2 may be a combination of an internal combustion engine (for example, a gas engine) and a power generator driven by the internal combustion engine, or a combination of an external combustion engine and a power generator, instead of the fuel cell 6.

  An inverter 10 for grid connection is provided on the output side of the fuel cell 6, and this inverter 10 sets the output power of the fuel cell 6 to the same voltage and the same frequency as the power supplied from the commercial system 12. The commercial system 12 is, for example, a single-phase three-wire system 100 / 200V, and is electrically connected to various electric devices such as a television, a refrigerator, and a washing machine through a commercial power supply line 14. The inverter 10 is electrically connected to the power supply line 14 via the cogeneration supply line 18, and the generated power from the fuel cell 6 is supplied to the power load 16 via the inverter 10 and the cogeneration supply line 18.

  The power supply line 14 is provided with a power load measuring means 20, and this power load measuring means 20 includes power purchased from the commercial system 12, means for measuring generated power not shown, and an electric heater 52 (described later). The load power of the power load 16 is measured from the power calculated by the means for measuring the power consumption of the power load 16. The power load measuring means 20 also detects whether or not a reverse power flow occurs in the current flowing through the power supply line 14, and in this embodiment, the inverter 10 is connected from the fuel cell 6 so that the reverse power flow does not occur. Thus, the power supplied to the power supply line 14 is controlled, and surplus power of the generated power is stored in the hot water storage device 4 as recovered heat as will be described later.

  The illustrated hot water storage device 4 includes a hot water storage tank 22 that stores hot water, and a hot water storage circulation passage 24 that circulates water (or hot water) in the hot water storage tank 22. The bottom of the hot water storage tank 22 and the hot water storage circulation channel 24 are connected via an outflow channel 26, and the upper part of the hot water storage tank 22 and the hot water storage circulation channel 24 are connected via an inflow channel 28. A first opening / closing valve 30 is disposed in the path 28. In addition, a second opening / closing valve 32 is disposed at a predetermined portion of the hot water circulation path 24 and a first circulation pump 34 for circulating water (or hot water) is disposed. With this configuration, when the first on-off valve 30 is in the open state and the second on-off valve 32 is in the closed state, the water in the hot water storage tank 22 flows out of the outflow passage 26, the hot water circulation passage 24, and the inflow passage. 28 is circulated through. When the first on-off valve 30 is closed and the second on-off valve 32 is in the open state, water (or hot water) in the hot water storage circulation channel 24 is circulated through the hot water storage circulation channel 24.

  The hot water storage tank 22 is provided with a water supply channel 36 for supplying water (for example, tap water). One end of the water supply channel 36 is connected to the bottom of the hot water storage tank 22 and the other end is a water pipe. Such a water supply source (not shown) is connected. Therefore, the water supplied from the water supply channel 36 is stored in a layered manner at the bottom of the hot water storage tank 22.

  The hot water storage tank 22 is further connected with a hot water hot water flow path 40 for discharging hot water. One end of the hot water hot water flow path 40 is connected to the upper part of the hot water storage tank 22 and one or two are connected to the other end side. The above-described curans (not shown) are connected, and when the curans are opened, hot water in the hot water storage tank 22 is discharged through the hot water hot water flow path 40. A flow sensor 41 for detecting the flow rate of hot water to be discharged and a temperature sensor 43 for detecting the temperature of the hot water are disposed in the hot water discharge channel 40, and the detected flow rate and detected temperature of the flow sensor 41 and the temperature sensor 43 are set. Utilizing this, a hot water supply heat load described later is calculated.

  In the hot water storage tank 22, a hot water detecting means 44 for detecting the temperature of water or hot water is also provided. The illustrated hot water detection means 44 is composed of a plurality of (for example, five) temperature sensors 45, and these temperature sensors 45 are disposed in the hot water storage tank 22 at intervals in the vertical direction. If the highest temperature sensor is 45a and the lowest temperature sensor is 45b, the highest temperature sensor 45a detects the absence of hot water in the hot water storage tank 22, and the lowest temperature sensor 45b is the hot water storage tank 22. Detects full hot water inside.

  In this embodiment, the boiler means 42 is provided in the hot water hot water flow path 40. Fuel gas such as city gas or combustion oil such as heavy oil is supplied and burned in the boiler means 42, and the water (or hot water) flowing through the hot water outlet channel 40 is heated by this combustion heat. The temperature sensor 45a of the hot water detection means 44 functions as a hot water empty detection sensor. When this temperature sensor 45a detects hot water empty, a control means described later generates a boiler operation signal, and the boiler is based on this boiler operation signal. Means 42 are activated.

  The cogeneration device 2 includes a cooling water circulation passage 46 that circulates the cooling water from the fuel cell 6, and a second circulation pump 48 is disposed in the cooling water circulation passage 46. Thus, the cooling water is circulated through the cooling water circulation passage 46. A heat exchanger 50 is disposed between the cooling water circulation channel 46 and the hot water circulation channel 24, and the heat exchanger 50 flows through the cooling water and the hot water circulation channel 24 flowing through the cooling water circulation channel 46. Heat exchange is performed with water (or warm water). The cooling water circulation channel 46 is connected to a heat radiation channel 51 bypassing the heat exchanger 50, and a radiator 53 for radiating the heat of the cooling water to the atmosphere is provided in the heat radiation channel 51. . Further, a third on-off valve 55 is disposed in the cooling water circulation passage 46, and a fourth on-off valve 57 is disposed in the heat radiation passage 51. When the third on-off valve 55 is in the open state and the fourth on-off valve 57 is in the closed state, the cooling water from the fuel cell 6 is circulated through the heat exchanger 50, and the exhaust heat of the fuel cell 6 passes through the cooling water circulation passage 46. The hot water stored in the hot water storage tank 22 via the flowing cooling water and the hot water flowing through the hot water circulation passage 24 is stored in a layered manner in the upper part of the hot water storage tank 22. When the third on-off valve 55 is closed and the fourth on-off valve 57 is open, the cooling water from the fuel cell 6 flows through the heat radiation passage 51 and the radiator 53, and the exhaust heat of the fuel cell 6 is reduced. Heat is released from the radiator 53 to the atmosphere.

  In this embodiment, a heater means 52 is provided for recovering surplus power generated by the fuel cell 6 with heat. The heater means 52 is composed of an electric heater 54, the electric heater 54 is disposed in the cooling water circulation passage 46, and the electric heater 54 is connected to the output side of the fuel cell 6 through an operation switch 56. When the operation switch 56 is in the closed state (ON), a part of the power generated by the fuel cell 6 is supplied to the electric heater 54, and the cooling water flowing through the cooling water circulation passage 46 is heated by the heat generated in the electric heater 54. Heated. The heater means 52 is configured such that when the surplus power is large (or small), the power consumption of the electric heater 54 is large (or small) and the heat generation amount is large (or small). The heater means 52 may be arranged in the hot water storage tank 22 or the hot water storage circulation channel 24 of the hot water storage device 4 instead of the cooling water circulation channel 46.

  A heating device 58 for using warm water flowing through the hot water circulation channel 24 for heating is connected to the hot water circulation channel 24 of the hot water storage device 4 via a heat exchanger 64. The heating device 58 is, for example, a floor heating device, a bathroom heating dryer, or the like, and a heating heat exchanger 64 is provided between the heating circulation channel 62 and the hot water storage circulation channel 24 of the heating device 58. The heating heat exchanger 64 exchanges heat between the hot water flowing through the hot water circulation passage 24 and the hot water flowing through the heating circulation passage 62, and uses the heat of the hot water flowing through the hot water circulation passage 24 to heat the heating device. 58 is heated.

  The above-described cogeneration system is controlled by the control means 70. 2 to 4, the control means 70 is constituted by, for example, a microcomputer, and includes a predicted power load calculation means 72, a predicted heat load calculation means 74, a temporary operation pattern setting means 76, a predicted heat output calculation means 78, Predicted hot water storage heat amount calculation means 80, correction mode setting means 82, increase side correction means 84, reduction side correction means 86 and threshold value calculation setting means 88 are provided. The predicted power load calculation means 72 calculates a future predicted power load based on power consumption data resulting from the use of the past power load 16, and when calculating this predicted power load, for example, the power of the power load measurement means 20 Load measurement data is used. The predicted heat load calculating means 74 calculates a future predicted heat load based on the amount of heat consumed by the past use of hot water. This heat load includes a hot water supply heat load that uses hot water by hot water supply and a heating heat load that consumes the heat of hot water by the heating device 58. When calculating the predicted hot water supply load, for example, the flow rate data of the flow sensor 41 of the hot water outlet flow path 40 and the temperature data of the temperature sensor 43 are used, and when calculating the predicted heating load, for example, a heating device 58 operational data are used.

  The temporary operation pattern setting means 76 sets the temporary operation pattern so as to cover the predicted power load, and the predicted heat output calculation means 78 predicts the predicted heat output generated when the fuel cell 6 is temporarily operated according to the predicted operation pattern. In other words, the predicted amount of stored hot water stored in the hot water storage tank 22 is calculated. This predicted heat output is calculated taking into consideration the heat dissipation loss when hot water is stored in the hot water storage tank 22 (this heat loss is calculated based on the predicted hot water supply heat load and taking into account the time for storing hot water in the hot water storage tank 22, Is preferably the so-called predicted effective hot water storage amount taking into consideration this heat dissipation loss, and when reducing the hot water storage amount, it is preferably the so-called predicted effective radiator heat release amount taking into account this heat dissipation loss). The longer the hot water is stored, the larger the predicted heat output becomes. Therefore, the longer the hot water is stored, the smaller the predicted heat output becomes. The predicted hot water storage heat amount calculation means 80 calculates the predicted heat amount stored as hot water in the hot water storage tank 22, that is, the predicted hot water storage heat amount.

  Furthermore, the correction mode setting means 82 determines whether or not the temporary operation pattern set by the temporary operation pattern setting means 76 is to be corrected, and sets the increase correction mode when it is determined that the increase correction is necessary as described later. If it is determined that reduction correction is necessary as described later, a reduction correction mode is set. The increase side correction means 84 increases and corrects the provisional operation pattern as described later when the increase correction mode is set, and the reduction side correction means 86 describes the provisional operation pattern when the reduction correction mode is set. Further, the threshold calculation setting means 88 includes a temporary operation energy reduction ratio calculation means 90 and a threshold setting means 92, and the temporary operation energy reduction ratio calculation means 90 is temporarily operated energy as described later. The reduction ratio is calculated, and the threshold value setting unit 92 sets the threshold value based on the temporary operation energy reduction ratio.

  The control means 70 further includes an operation mode setting means 94, a current energy reduction ratio calculation means 96, a power generation output setting means 98, an operation control means 100, and a memory means 102. The operation mode setting means 94 sets the threshold operation mode when a predetermined condition described later is satisfied, and sets the main operation mode when the threshold operation mode is not permitted. In the threshold operation mode, the current energy reduction ratio calculation means 96 calculates the current energy reduction ratio as described later, and the power generation output setting means 98 calculates the power generation output as described later. The operation control means 100 controls the operation of the cogeneration system, that is, the fuel cell 6, the inverter 10, the heater means 52, the boiler means 42, and the like as will be described later. The memory means 102 stores various information such as power load data of the power load measuring means 20, flow rate data of the flow sensor 42, temperature data of the temperature sensor 43, predicted power load, predicted heat load, temporary operation pattern, predicted heat output. Predicted hot water storage amount, current energy reduction ratio, power generation output, etc. are stored.

  Next, with reference to FIG. 3, the increase side correction means 84 for increasing and correcting the temporary operation pattern will be described. The increase side correction means 84 shown in the figure includes an increase target determination means 104, an increase target value calculation means 106, an increase target. Pickup means 108, increase target pickup prohibition means 110, and provisional operation pattern correction means 112, provisional operation pattern correction means 112, prediction energy reduction ratio calculation means 114, prediction increase hot water storage heat amount calculation means 115, prediction energy reduction ratio selection means 116, a predicted increase hot water storage heat amount integration means 118, a predicted energy reduction ratio recalculation means 120, and a reduction ratio pickup prohibition means 122. The increase target determining means 104 determines an increase target to be increased and corrected, as will be described later, and the increase target value calculating means 106 calculates an increase target value for the amount of hot water stored in the hot water storage tank 22 as hot water, and an increase target pickup. The means 108 sequentially picks up the increase targets determined by the increase target determination means 104 in order of time, and the increase target pickup prohibition means 110 forcibly prohibits the above-described increase target pickup.

  Further, the temporary operation pattern correction unit 112 increases and corrects the temporarily set temporary operation pattern as described later, and at the time of this increase correction, the predicted energy reduction ratio calculation unit 114 sets the energy reduction ratio as described later. The predicted increase hot water storage calorific value calculation means 115 calculates the predicted increase hot water storage heat amount as described later, and the energy reduction ratio selection means 116 calculates the energy reduction calculated until the predicted increase hot water storage heat amount reaches the predicted hot water storage heat increase target value. The ratio is selected as required, and the predicted increased hot water storage amount accumulating means 118 integrates the predicted increased hot water storage amount when operating at the power generation output corresponding to the selected energy reduction ratio. Further, the predicted energy reduction ratio recalculation unit 120 recalculates the energy reduction ratio for a time zone including the selected energy reduction ratio as described later, and the reduction ratio pickup prohibiting unit 122 calculates the predicted energy reduction ratio when described later. Prohibit pickup.

  Next, the reduction side correction means 86 for reducing and correcting the temporary operation pattern will be described with reference to FIG. 4. The illustrated reduction side correction means 86 includes a reduction target determination means 124, a reduction target value calculation means 126, and a reduction target pickup. Means 128, reduction target pickup prohibition means 130 and provisional operation pattern correction means 132. Provisional operation pattern correction means 132 includes prediction energy reduction ratio calculation means 134, prediction reduction hot water storage heat amount calculation means 135, prediction energy reduction ratio selection means 136. , A predicted reduction hot water storage heat amount integration means 138, a predicted energy reduction ratio recalculation means 140, and a reduction ratio pickup prohibition means 142 are included. The reduction target determination means 124 determines a reduction target to be reduced and corrected as described later, and the reduction target value calculation means 126 calculates a reduction target value of the amount of hot water stored in the hot water storage tank 22 as hot water, and a reduction target pickup. The means 128 sequentially picks up the reduction targets determined by the reduction target determination means 124 in order of time, and the reduction target pickup prohibition means 130 forcibly prohibits the above-described reduction target pickup.

  Further, the temporary operation pattern correction unit 132 reduces and corrects the temporarily set temporary operation pattern as described later, and at the time of this reduction correction, the predicted energy reduction ratio calculation unit 134 sets the energy reduction ratio as described later. The predicted reduction hot water storage calorific value calculation means 135 calculates the predicted reduction hot water storage heat quantity as described later, and the energy reduction ratio selection means 136 calculates the energy reduction calculated until the predicted reduction hot water storage heat quantity reaches the predicted hot water storage heat reduction target value. The ratio is selected as required, and the predicted reduced hot water storage amount integration means 138 integrates the predicted reduced hot water storage amount when operating at the power generation output corresponding to the selected energy reduction ratio. Further, the predicted energy reduction ratio recalculation unit 140 recalculates the energy reduction ratio for a time zone including the selected energy reduction ratio as described later, and the reduction ratio pickup prohibiting unit 142 calculates the predicted energy reduction ratio when described later. Prohibit pickup.

  Next, control of the cogeneration system by the control means 70 described above will be described. FIG. 5 is a flowchart showing an outline of control of the cogeneration system, FIG. 6 is a diagram for explaining the heat dissipation amount of the radiator 53 and the hot water supply amount of the boiler means 42, and FIG. 7 is the radiator of FIG. It is a figure which shows the calculation for calculating | requiring the thermal radiation amount of 53, and the hot water supply calorie | heat amount of the boiler means 42. FIG.

  Referring to FIGS. 5 to 7 together with FIGS. 1 and 2, in the control of this cogeneration system, a predicted power load is calculated in a predetermined set time range from the current time, in this embodiment, 24 hours (step) Along with S1), calculation of the predicted heat load in this predetermined set time range is performed (step S2). The predicted power load is calculated as required by the predicted power load calculation means 72 based on the past power load data, and this predicted power load is as shown in FIG. 6A, for example. The predicted heat load is calculated as required by the predicted heat load calculation means 74 based on the past heat load (hot water supply heat load and heating heat load) data. In this embodiment, in order to simplify the explanation, the case where the heating device 58 is not used, that is, the case where only the predicted hot water supply heat load is generated as the predicted heat load is considered. A predicted hot water supply heat load is calculated based on the heat load data, and the predicted hot water supply heat load is, for example, as shown in FIG. In the embodiment, the predetermined set time range for calculating the predicted power load and the predicted heat load is 24 hours, but can be set to an appropriate time such as 6 hours, 12 hours, or 16 hours, for example. In this embodiment, the time period for calculating the predicted power load and the predicted heat load is 1 hour, and the predicted power load and the predicted heat load are calculated in units of one hour. It can be set to an appropriate time unit such as a unit of 25 hours.

  Next, a temporary operation pattern is set so as to cover the predicted power load (step S3). The provisional operation pattern is set by the provisional operation pattern setting means 76, assuming that the minimum output of the power generation output of the fuel cell 6 is 300 W and the predicted power load is as shown in FIG. The operation pattern is, for example, as shown in steps in FIG. For example, the current time is, for example, 0:00 pm, and the predicted power load for one hour from 0:00 pm to 1:00 pm, from 1 pm to 2 pm, from 2 pm to 3 pm, etc. is 200 W and 230 W. , 500 W..., The temporary operation pattern to be set is 300 W in the time zone from 0 pm to 1 pm, 300 W in the time zone from 1 pm to 2 pm, and from 2 pm to 3 pm Temporary operation patterns for a predetermined set time range are set as 500 W.

  When the temporary operation pattern is set in this way, the predicted heat output of the fuel cell 6 is calculated. This predicted heat output is performed by the predicted heat output calculation means 78, and when all of the generated power of the fuel cell 6 is consumed by the power load 16, the amount of exhaust heat of the fuel cell 6 becomes the predicted heat output, and the fuel When a part of the generated power of the battery 6 is consumed by the power load 16 and the remaining part is consumed for heating the cooling water by the heater means 52, the amount of exhaust heat of the fuel cell 6 and the surplus power of the generated power are used. The amount of heat generated by the heater means 52 becomes the predicted heat output, and this predicted heat output becomes the predicted amount of stored hot water stored in the hot water storage tank 22 of the hot water storage device 4. The predicted heat output of the fuel cell 6 is preferably a value that takes into consideration a heat dissipation loss that occurs during the time stored in the hot water storage tank 22, and the predicted heat output that takes the heat dissipation loss into consideration is the predicted effective hot water storage amount.

  Thereafter, a predicted hot water storage amount stored as hot water in the hot water storage tank 22 is calculated (step S5). The calculation of the predicted hot water storage amount is performed by the predicted hot water storage amount calculation means 80, and the predicted hot water storage amount calculation means 80 uses the current heat storage amount of the hot water storage tank 22 at the current time as the predicted heat output of the fuel cell 6 in each time zone. Is added to calculate the predicted hot water storage amount in the corresponding time zone, and this predicted hot water storage amount is, for example, as shown in FIG. The current heat storage amount of the hot water storage tank 22 at the current time can be calculated based on the hot water temperature and the hot water amount detected by the hot water detection means 44, for example.

  When the predicted hot water storage amount is calculated in this way, it is determined whether a reduction target for reducing the predicted hot water storage amount has been determined (step S6). That is, as shown in FIG. 6D, based on the current heat storage amount of the hot water storage tank 22, the predicted heat output generated when the fuel cell 6 is operated according to the temporary operation pattern, and the predicted hot water supply heat load, the set time range. In step S6, when it is determined that the predicted hot water storage amount exceeds the set maximum heat storage amount, for example, the hot water storage amount that the hot water storage tank 22 fills with hot water of a predetermined temperature (for example, 80 ° C.). From step S7, the correction mode setting unit 82 sets the reduction correction mode. That the predicted amount of stored hot water in the hot water storage tank 22 is equal to or greater than the set maximum heat storage amount means that the hot water storage tank 22 cannot store heat such as exhaust heat of the fuel cell 6 any more. The cooling water flows through the heat radiating flow path 51, and the radiator 53 radiates heat to the atmosphere of the cooling water, so that the exhaust heat of the fuel cell 6 is dissipated to the atmosphere unnecessarily, and such wasteful heat dissipation is performed. The reduction correction mode is set so as to suppress the reduction, and the temporary correction pattern reduction correction is performed as described later (step S8).

  Further, when the process proceeds from step S6 to step S9, it is determined whether an increase target for increasing the predicted hot water storage amount is determined. That is, as shown in FIG. 6D, based on the current heat storage amount of the hot water storage tank 22, the predicted heat output generated when the fuel cell 6 is operated according to the temporary operation pattern, the predicted hot water supply heat load, and the heat dissipation loss, In the set time range, it is determined that the predicted hot water storage amount is equal to or less than the set minimum heat storage amount, for example, the hot water storage amount in which the hot water in the hot water storage tank 22 runs out. The correction mode setting means 82 sets an increase correction mode. That the predicted hot water storage amount of the hot water storage tank 22 is equal to or less than the set minimum heat storage amount means that hot water of a predetermined temperature (for example, 80 ° C.) in the hot water storage tank 22 is consumed and no hot water remains. In this case, the boiler means 42 is operated to generate hot water, and the hot water generated by the boiler means 42 is supplied through the hot water tap water flow path 40 so that the fuel is consumed by the boiler means 42. An increase correction mode is set so as to suppress the wasteful operation of the boiler means 42, and an increase correction of the temporary operation pattern is performed as described later (step S11).

  When neither the reduction target nor the increase target is determined, the process proceeds from step S6 to step S9 to step S12. In this case, the operation mode setting means 94 sets the main operation mode, and the operation control means 100 controls the operation of the cogeneration system so as to cover the current power load as will be described later.

  Referring to FIGS. 6 and 7, for example, the predicted power load is as shown in the predicted power load column of FIGS. 6 (a) and 7 and the predicted hot water supply thermal load is the predicted hot water supply of FIGS. 6 (b) and 7. As shown in the thermal load column, the predicted power generation output of the fuel cell 6 based on the temporary operation pattern of the main control at this time is as shown in the predicted power generation output column of FIG. The output is as shown in the predicted heat output column of FIG. 7, and assuming that the predicted hot water storage amount at this time is as shown in FIG. 6 (c) and the predicted hot water storage amount column of FIG. As shown in the predicted heat dissipation amount column of the radiator 53 in FIG. 7, 400 kcal heat is generated in the time zone from 2 pm to 3 pm, and 1400 kcal heat is generated in the time zone from 3 pm to 4 pm. And the boilers of FIGS. 6 (d) and 7 As shown in predicted hot-water supply heat column stage 42, so that hot water shortage of 3300kcal in the time period of 5:00 - 6:00 pm is hot water by the boiler means 42 occurs.

  When the reduction correction mode is set and the reduction side correction of the temporary operation pattern is performed, it is determined whether the predetermined time zone range is the minimum output (step S13), and the power generation output in each time zone of the predetermined time zone range is the minimum output. In some cases, the process proceeds to step S14, and the fuel cell 6 is operated at the minimum power generation output. If the power generation output in each time zone within the predetermined time zone range is not the minimum power generation output, the process proceeds from step S13 to step S15, where it is determined whether the operation with the threshold value is permitted by satisfying the predetermined condition, and the operation is permitted. Then, calculation setting of the energy reduction ratio threshold is performed (step S16), the operation mode setting means 94 sets the threshold operation mode, and the operation control means 100 is set as described later. The cogeneration system is operated and controlled using the energy reduction ratio threshold value (step S17). On the other hand, when the operation based on the threshold value is not permitted, the process proceeds from step S15 to step S12, and the operation mode setting means 94 sets the main operation mode, and the cogeneration system is configured to cover the current power load as described above. Operation is controlled.

  Further, when the increase correction mode is set and the increase correction of the temporary operation pattern is performed, it is determined whether the predetermined time zone range is the maximum output (step S18), and the power generation output in each time zone of the predetermined time zone range is the maximum. If it is output, the process proceeds to step S19, and the fuel cell 6 is operated at the maximum power generation output. If the power generation output in each time zone within the predetermined time zone range is not the maximum power generation output, the process proceeds from step S18 to step S20, where it is determined whether the operation with the threshold value is permitted by satisfying the predetermined condition, and the operation is permitted. Then, calculation setting of the energy reduction ratio threshold is performed (step S21), the operation mode setting means 94 sets the threshold operation mode, and the operation control means 100 is set as described later. The cogeneration system is operated and controlled using the energy reduction ratio threshold value (step S22). On the other hand, when the operation based on the threshold value is not permitted, the process proceeds from step S20 to step S12, and the operation mode setting means 94 sets the main operation mode, and the operation is controlled so as to cover the current power load as described above. The calculation setting of the energy reduction ratio threshold value, the operation in the threshold operation mode, and the like will be described in detail later.

  Next, the increase side correction of the temporary operation pattern performed in order to suppress the hot water supply by the boiler means 42 is demonstrated. FIG. 8 is a flowchart showing a flow of correction of the temporary operation pattern on the increase side, FIG. 9 is a diagram for explaining the first pickup of the predicted energy reduction ratio, and FIG. 10 is the predicted energy reduction ratio. FIG. 11 is a diagram for explaining the last pickup for heat shortage in the first heat shortage time zone, and FIG. 12 is a diagram for explaining the second pickup of FIG. It is a figure for demonstrating the increase correction with respect to the heat shortage of the 1st heat shortage time slot | zone when the heat shortage time slot | zone exists, and FIG. 13 is a case where the 2nd heat shortage time slot | zone exists. FIG. 14 is a diagram for explaining the first pickup for the second heat shortage, FIG. 14 is a diagram for explaining the last pickup for the second heat shortage, and FIG. Th heat shortage It is a figure for demonstrating the pick-up of the prediction energy reduction ratio when it becomes more than a setting maximum heat storage amount during the increase correction with respect to the heat shortage of an interband, FIG. 16 is more than a setting maximum heat storage amount in the pick-up in FIG. It is a figure for demonstrating the 1st pick-up after becoming.

  Referring mainly to FIG. 3 and FIGS. 8 to 14, when the increase side correction of the temporary operation pattern is performed, first, the heat shortage time zone is selected (step S <b> 11-1). The selection of the heat shortage time zone is performed by the increase target pick-up means 108, and the increase target pick-up means 108 is sequentially selected in the order of the time from the present time. For example, as shown in FIG. If the first heat shortage (ie, shortage of hot water) occurs at 3000 kcal in the time zone from 3 pm to 4 pm (time zone “4” in FIG. 10), this time zone “4” is determined. Is done. The description with reference to FIGS. 9 to 16 is different from the content of FIG. 7 in order to facilitate understanding.

  When the first heat shortage time zone (time zone “4”) is selected, the predicted hot water storage heat amount increase target value in this heat shortage time zone is calculated by the increase target value calculation means 106 (step S11-2). . The predicted hot water storage heat amount increase target value is calculated so that the shortage of heat (insufficient hot water) does not occur, in other words, the predicted hot water storage heat amount increase target value is calculated so that the boiler means 42 does not operate in this heat shortage time zone, The heat shortage amount in this heat shortage time zone is calculated as the predicted hot water storage heat amount increase target value.

  Next, the predicted energy reduction ratio is calculated for the time zone range before the first heat shortage time zone (time zone “4”), that is, each time zone from 0:00 pm to 3:00 pm (step) S11-3). The calculation of the predicted energy reduction ratio is performed by the predicted energy reduction ratio calculation means 114. In this case, since it is an increase correction, the power generation of the temporary operation pattern set using the predicted hot water storage amount, preferably the predicted effective hot water storage amount. A predicted energy reduction ratio is calculated for a power generation output range larger than the output. In this embodiment, the minimum power generation output of the fuel cell 6 is 300 W, the maximum power generation output is 1000 W, and the calculation of the predicted energy reduction ratio is performed in increments of 100 W of the fuel cell 6. Therefore, when the power generation output of the temporary operation pattern is 300 W (or 700 W, for example), the predicted energy reduction ratio is the power generation output 400 W, 500 W, 600 W, 700 W, 800 W, 900 W and 1000 W (or 800 W, 900 W and 1000W).

The predicted energy reduction ratio P is a heat dissipation loss up to a heat shortage time zone (eg, time zone “4”).
P = [(predicted energy consumption E1 when operating the power plant and heating boiler) − (predicted energy consumption E2 when operating the combined heat and power supply device)] / specific prediction effective hot water storage heat amount (1 )
Here, the predicted energy consumptions E1 and E2 are considered for a specific unit operation time, respectively.
E1 = (specific prediction power load / power generation efficiency of power plant) + (specific prediction effective amount of stored hot water / heating efficiency of boiler means) + (specific prediction heating heat load / heating efficiency of boiler means)
... (2)
E2 = (Specific predicted energy consumption of combined heat and power unit) + (Specified predicted purchased power amount / Power generation efficiency of power plant) + [(Specific predicted heating heat load) − (Used for heating out of exhaust heat of combined heat and power unit) Heat amount)] / Heating efficiency of boiler means (3)
Thus, considering the case where the cogeneration apparatus 2 is operated and the case where it is not operated, the case where the cogeneration apparatus 2 is not operated is when the power plant and the boiler means are operated.

In this embodiment, the fuel cell 6 is configured so that the power generation output is in increments of 100 W when calculating the predicted energy reduction ratio. Using the following equation (4) as a base output of the power generation output of the temporary operation pattern, the base output of the cogeneration apparatus 2 (in this embodiment, the fuel cell 6) (in this embodiment, the fuel cell 6 generates the power generation output of the temporary operation pattern) Therefore, this base output becomes the power generation output of the temporary operation pattern), and the predicted energy reduction ratio at the specific power generation output is calculated. The predicted energy reduction ratio Pp in this case is
Pp = [(Predicted energy reduction when operating the combined heat and power unit when operating the power plant and boiler means at the specific output of the combined heat and power unit)-(Power generation at the base output of the combined heat and power unit) Predicted energy reduction when operating the combined heat and power unit when the power station and boiler means are operated)] / [(Predicted effective hot water storage amount at the specific output of the combined heat and power unit)-(Base output of the combined heat and power unit) (Effective prediction of hot water storage amount of heat))] (4)
It becomes.

For example, when the maximum output of the fuel cell 6 is 1000 W and the power generation output of the temporary operation pattern is 300 W, for example, the power generation output increases from 300 W to 400 W, 500 W, 600 W, 700 W, 800 W, 900 W, and 1000 W, respectively. When the predicted energy reduction ratio is calculated and the specific output is 400 W, for example, the predicted energy reduction ratio Pp at this time is
Pp = [(Predicted energy reduction when operating a combined heat and power unit when operating a power plant and boiler means at 400 W output) − (For a power station and boiler means operating at a power output of 300 W) Predicted energy reduction when operating the combined heat and power system)] / [(Predicted effective hot water storage amount at 400 W output) − (Predicted effective hot water storage amount at 300 W output)] (5)
It becomes.

  The energy reduction ratio calculated in this way is, for example, as shown in FIG. In FIG. 9A, the output indicated by “−” in the power generation output column of the fuel cell 6 is the power generation output based on the temporary operation pattern, that is, the base output. The predicted energy reduction ratio is used for a power generation output range that is greater than the current power output.

  Next, in relation to the calculation of the predicted energy reduction ratio, the predicted increased hot water storage heat amount is calculated (step S11-4). The predicted increase hot water storage calorific value calculation means 115 is an increase heat amount that is larger than the predicted heat output generated by the power generation output of the temporary operation pattern for the power generation output range larger than the power generation output of the set temporary operation pattern, that is, the predicted increase hot water storage. Calculate the amount of heat. This predicted increased hot water storage amount is, for example, as shown in the column of the predicted increased heat output of the fuel cell 6 in FIG. 9B, and also in the column of the predicted increased heat output of the fuel cell 6 in FIG. The power generation output indicated by “−” is the power generation output by the temporary operation pattern, that is, the base output.

  When the predicted energy reduction ratio and the predicted increased hot water storage heat amount are calculated in this way, the predicted energy reduction ratio is then picked up by the predicted energy reduction ratio selection means 116 (step S11-5). Since this pickup is an increase correction to prevent heat shortage, the time zone range before the first heat shortage time zone, that is, the time when the predicted energy reduction ratio and the predicted increased hot water storage amount are calculated. The power generation output range is a band range (in this case, the time period “1” to “3” range) that is larger than the power generation output of the temporary operation pattern, and as shown in FIG. The ratio selection means 116 is the largest value in the positive value range, in this case, the predicted energy reduction corresponding to the power generation output 600 W of the fuel cell 6 in the time zone from 0 pm to 1 pm (time zone “1”). The ratio “1.8” is selected, and the temporary operation pattern is corrected and updated so that the power generation output corresponding to the predicted energy reduction ratio selected in this way becomes the power generation output of this time zone “1”.

  When picked up in this manner, the power generation output of the fuel cell 6 increases from 300 W to 600 W, and accordingly, the predicted heat output also increases. Therefore, the predicted hot water storage heat amount calculation means 80 is connected to the hot water storage tank 22 as the output increases. The predicted amount of stored hot water is calculated (step S11-6). Then, it is determined whether or not the calculated predicted hot water storage amount is equal to or greater than the predetermined maximum heat storage amount. If the calculated predicted hot water storage amount is smaller than the predetermined maximum heat storage amount, the process proceeds from step S11-7 to step S11-8. Accumulated predicted increased hot water storage amount increased from the heat output of the temporary operation pattern before update. At the time of the first pickup, the power generation output of the fuel cell 6 increases from 300 W to 600 W in the time zone “1”, and the predicted increased hot water storage amount at this time is 613 kcal. Therefore, the integrated value at this time is shown in FIG. As understood from (b), it is 613 kcal.

  Next, the predicted increased hot water storage amount integration means 118 integrates the predicted increased hot water storage amount (step S11-8), and it is determined whether this integrated value has reached the predicted hot water storage heat amount increase target value (step S11-9). When the increase target value is not reached, the process proceeds from step S11-9 to step S11-10, and the predicted energy reduction ratio is recalculated. The recalculation at this time is performed for the time zone (time zone “1”) in which the predicted energy reduction ratio is picked up, and the power generation output corresponding to the picked up predicted energy reduction ratio (in other words, the power generation of the updated temporary operation pattern). Output, which is based on 600 W) in this case, and is calculated by calculating the predicted energy reduction ratio at the specific power generation output with respect to this power generation output (600 W), and corresponding to the picked-up predicted energy reduction ratio For larger power generation output ranges (in this case, 700 W, 800 W, 900 W, 1000 W), the recalculation is as shown in the column of time zone “1” in FIG. 10A, for example.

  Then, after the recalculation, the process returns to step S11-5, and the predicted energy reduction ratio is picked up again. As shown in FIG. 10 (a), the predicted energy reduction ratio selection unit 116 determines the remaining energy reduction ratio. The largest value in the positive range, in this case, the predicted energy reduction ratio “1.65” corresponding to the power generation output 800 W of the fuel cell 6 in the time zone from 0 pm to 1 pm (time zone “1”). Select. Thereafter, Steps S11-6 to S11-9 are performed to determine whether the predicted hot water storage amount is equal to or greater than the predetermined maximum heat storage amount, and whether the integrated value of the predicted increased hot water storage amount has reached the predicted hot water storage amount increase target value. Step S11-5 to step S11-10 are repeatedly performed until the integrated value of the predicted hot water storage heat amount reaches the predicted hot water storage heat target value, and the recalculation of the predicted energy reduction ratio and the pickup of the predicted energy reduction ratio are performed. Is called.

  Thus, the predicted energy reduction ratio “1.8” (600 W) for the time zone “1”, the predicted energy reduction ratio “1.65” (800 W) for the time zone “1”,... When the reduction ratio “1.3” (800 W) is sequentially picked up, as shown in FIG. 11, the integrated value of the predicted increased hot water storage amount, that is, the integrated hot water storage amount increased from the main control is the predicted hot water storage heat increase target. When the value reaches 3000 kcal, the first correction for the shortage of heat is completed, and the process proceeds from step S11-8 to step S11-11. In this embodiment, after the predicted energy reduction ratio is picked up, the predicted energy reduction ratio is replayed for the picked-up time zone, but without performing this recalculation, the predicted energy reduction ratio calculation means 114 The calculated predicted energy reduction ratio may be picked up in descending order in the positive range.

  In step S11-11, it is determined whether a heat shortage time zone exists in the set time range (24 hours from the current time). If there is a next heat shortage time zone, the increase target pickup means 110 The second heat shortage time zone is picked up in the order of the times, and the process returns to step S11-1 to perform an increase correction for the heat shortage in the second heat shortage time zone.

  As shown in FIG. 12A, for example, the first heat shortage exists in the time zone from 3 pm to 4 pm (time zone “4”), for example, the time zone from 6 pm to 7 pm When the second heat shortage exists in (time zone “6”), first, an increase correction for the first heat shortage is performed, and the predicted hot water storage heat increase target value for this heat shortage is 3000 kcal, As described above, in the time zone range before the first heat shortage time zone, the predicted energy reduction ratio is picked up until the integrated value of the predicted hot water storage heat amount reaches the predicted hot water storage heat increase target value, The predicted energy reduction ratio selection means 116 sequentially picks up the predicted energy reduction ratio in descending order, and the corrected output of the predetermined set time of the fuel cell 2 picked up as shown in FIGS. First It is registered in the memory unit 102 as a first provisional drive pattern for shortage.

  Next, as shown in FIGS. 13 (a) and 13 (b), when the second heat shortage increase correction is performed and the predicted hot water storage heat increase target value for this heat shortage is 1000 kcal, In the time zone range before the heat shortage time zone (time zone “6”), that is, the time zone “1” to the time zone “5”, the integrated value of the predicted increased hot water storage amount becomes the predicted hot water storage heat increase target value. The estimated energy reduction ratio is picked up until it is reached. At this time, since the first temporary operation pattern corrected to the increase side in order to cope with the first heat shortage is temporarily set, based on the power generation output of the corrected first temporary operation pattern, this Calculation of the predicted energy reduction ratio and the predicted increased hot water storage amount is performed for a power generation output range larger than the power generation output, and the predicted reduction ratio and the predicted increased hot water storage amount calculated in this way are shown in, for example, FIGS. ).

  After the calculation, as described above, in the time zone range before the second heat shortage time zone, the predicted energy until the integrated value of the predicted increased hot water storage amount reaches the predicted increased hot water storage amount target value. A reduction ratio pickup is performed, and the pickups are performed in descending order within a positive value range. At this time, since the second target heat increase target value for heat shortage is, for example, 1000 kcal, the predicted energy reduction ratio selection unit 116, as shown in FIG. ”(900 W in time zone“ 1 ”), and then the recalculation of the predicted energy reduction ratio and the pickup are performed in the same manner as described above until the time shown in FIGS. 14 (a) and 14 (b). The corrected output of the fuel cell 2 picked up in this way is registered in the memory means 102 as the second temporary operation pattern for the first and second heat shortages. When the predicted energy reduction ratio is picked up even for this second heat shortage, the power generation that is larger than the generated power output is based on the power generation output corresponding to the picked up predicted energy reduction ratio in the picked-up time zone. The energy reduction ratio is recalculated for the range. Note that the third and subsequent heat shortages are based on the second (third...) Temporary operation pattern until the second (third...) Shortage of heat. In the same manner as the second heat shortage, an increase correction for the third (fourth...) Heat shortage is performed.

  In this way, when all of the heat shortages existing in the set time range, for example, the nth heat shortage is corrected and the temporary operation pattern is increased and corrected to the nth total heat shortage, the steps are performed. The process proceeds from step S11-11 to step S11-14, and the nth provisional operation pattern that has been corrected for correction is registered in the memory means 102 as a provisional operation correction pattern. If there is a heat surplus time zone in which the amount of stored hot water in the hot water storage tank 22 becomes excessive before the next heat shortage time zone, for example, between the second and third heat shortage time zones, Since the exhaust heat of the fuel cell 6 is released to the atmosphere in the surplus time zone, the increase correction of the temporary operation pattern in the time zone before the heat surplus time zone may be useless. For this reason, the increase target pickup prohibiting means 110 prohibits the pickup for the heat shortage occurring after the heat surplus time zone (step S11-13), and the temporary operation pattern for the heat shortage occurring after the heat surplus time zone. No correction is performed, and an increase correction of the temporary operation pattern for the heat shortage occurring before the heat surplus time zone is registered as the temporary operation correction pattern (step S11-14).

  In this embodiment, when the predicted energy reduction ratio is picked up, it is determined whether the integrated value of the predicted increased hot water storage amount has reached the predicted hot water storage amount increase target value, and the predicted hot water storage amount is equal to or greater than the set maximum heat storage amount When it becomes more than the set maximum heat storage amount, it is configured to proceed from step S11-7 to step S11-5 through step S11-15 and step S11-16. Referring to FIG. 15 and FIG. 16 (FIG. 15 and FIG. 16 are for explaining prohibition of pickup, and the contents are different from those of FIG. 9 to FIG. 14 described above) If the first heat shortage exists in the 7 o'clock time zone (time zone “7”) and the predicted hot water storage heat increase target value for this heat shortage is 5000 kcal, the time before this time zone “7” In the belt range, based on the power generation output of the temporary operation pattern, the predicted energy reduction ratio and the predicted increased hot water storage heat amount are calculated for a power generation output range larger than this power generation output.

  Even in this case, the pickup of the predicted energy reduction ratio is performed in the time zone range before the first heat shortage time zone, that is, the time zone “1” to the time zone “6”. The energy reduction ratio is performed in descending order within the positive value range, and each time it is picked up, as described above, it is determined whether or not the predicted hot water storage amount is equal to or greater than the predetermined maximum heat storage amount (step S11-7). It is determined whether the integrated value of the increased hot water storage heat amount has reached the predicted hot water storage heat increase target value (step S11-9).

  When the predicted energy reduction ratio is picked up as described above, for example, when the predicted energy reduction ratio “1.6” (900 W in time zone “2”) shown in FIG. 15A is picked up, it is understood from FIG. As shown, the predicted hot water storage amount of the hot water storage tank 22 in the time zone “2” exceeds the set maximum heat storage amount, for example, 10000 kcal. In this way, when the predicted hot water storage amount exceeds the set maximum heat storage amount, the reduction ratio pickup prohibiting means 122 prohibits the pickup of the predicted energy reduction ratio (step S11-16), and FIGS. 16 (a) and 16 (b). The time zone range that does not exceed the set maximum heat storage amount, in other words, the time zone range after the time zone that exceeds the set maximum heat storage amount (in this case, the time zone from 2 pm to 6 pm, that is, the time zone) The range is changed from “3” to the time zone “6” (step S11-17), and the predicted energy reduction ratio is continuously picked up in the changed time zone range (step S11-5). Thereafter, as shown in FIG. 16 (a), the predicted energy reduction ratio “1.5” (1000 W in the time zone “5”)... The integrated value is performed recalculation and pickup predicted energy reduction ratio to reach the predicted hot-water heat quantity increases the target value, increase correction of the temporary operation pattern is performed.

  Next, the temporary correction pattern reduction side correction will be described mainly with reference to FIGS. 4 and 17 to 25. FIG. 17 is a flowchart showing the flow of correction of the temporary operation pattern on the reduction side, FIG. 18 is a diagram for explaining the first pickup of the predicted energy reduction ratio, and FIG. 19 is the predicted energy reduction ratio. FIG. 20 is a diagram for explaining the last pickup for the thermal surplus in the first thermal surplus time zone, and FIG. 21 is a diagram for explaining the second pickup of FIG. It is a figure for demonstrating the reduction correction with respect to the heat | fever surplus of the 1st heat | fever surplus time slot | zone when the heat | fever surplus time slot | zone of FIG. FIG. 23 is a diagram for explaining the first pickup for the second heat surplus, FIG. 23 is a diagram for explaining the last pick-up for the second heat surplus, and FIG. Second heat It is a figure for demonstrating the pickup of the prediction energy reduction ratio when it becomes below a setting minimum heat storage amount during the reduction correction with respect to the heat surplus of a surplus time zone, and FIG. 25 is below a setting minimum heat storage amount in the pickup in FIG. It is a figure for demonstrating the 1st pick-up after becoming.

  Referring mainly to FIG. 4 and FIGS. 17 to 25, when this reduction side correction is performed, a heat surplus time zone is first selected (step S8-1). The selection of the heat surplus time zone is performed by the reduction target pickup means 128, and the reduction target pickup means 128 is sequentially selected in the order of the time from the present time. For example, as shown in FIG. Is 0:00 pm, and the first heat surplus (ie, excess hot water) occurs in the time zone from 4 pm to 5 pm (time zone “5” in FIG. 16), 1000 kcal, this time zone “5 Is determined. The description with reference to FIGS. 18 to 25 is different from the content of FIG. 7 for easy understanding.

  When the first heat surplus time zone (time zone “5”) is selected, the predicted hot water storage heat amount reduction target value in this heat surplus time zone is calculated by the reduction target value calculation means 126 (step S8-2). . The predicted hot water storage heat amount reduction target value is calculated so that there is no heat surplus (excessive hot water), in other words, the predicted hot water storage heat amount reduction target value is calculated so that there is no heat dissipation by the radiator 53 in this heat surplus time zone. The heat surplus amount in the time zone is calculated as the predicted hot water storage heat amount reduction target value.

  Next, the predicted energy reduction ratio is calculated for the time zone range before the first heat surplus time zone (time zone “5”), that is, each time zone from 0:00 pm to 4 pm (step). S8-3). The calculation of the predicted energy reduction ratio is performed by the predicted energy reduction ratio calculation unit 114. In this case, since the correction is performed on the reduction side, the temporary operation pattern set using the predicted radiator heat dissipation amount, preferably the predicted effective radiator heat dissipation amount. For the power generation output range smaller than the power generation output, the predicted energy reduction ratio is calculated in increments of 100 W as described above. Accordingly, when the power generation output of the temporary operation pattern is 1000 W (or 500 W, for example), the predicted energy reduction ratio is the power generation output 900 W, 800 W, 700 W, 600 W, 500 W, 400 W and 300 W (or 400 W and 300 W) of the fuel cell 6. Done about.

The predicted energy reduction ratio P in this case does not need to consider the operation of the boiler means 42 in consideration of the heat radiation loss up to the heat surplus time zone (for example, the time zone “5”).
P1 = [(Predicted energy consumption E11 when the power plant is operated) − (Predicted energy consumption E12 when the combined heat and power unit is operated)] / Specific prediction effective radiator heat dissipation amount (11)
Here, the predicted energy consumptions E11 and E21 are respectively considered for a specific unit operation time.
E11 = (specific prediction power load / power generation efficiency of power plant) (12)
E21 = (specific predicted energy consumption of cogeneration device) + (specific predicted power purchase / power generation efficiency of power plant) (13)
It becomes.

In this embodiment, the fuel cell 6 is configured such that when the predicted energy reduction ratio is calculated, the power generation output is in increments of 100 W. For this reason, the predicted energy reduction ratio calculation means 134 includes: Since the base output (the fuel cell 6 is operated with the power generation output of the temporary operation pattern) of the combined heat and power supply device 2 (in this embodiment, the fuel cell 6) using the following equation (14), the base output is also used at this time. Is the power generation output of the temporary operation pattern), and calculates the predicted energy reduction ratio at the time of the specific power generation output. The predicted energy reduction ratio Pp1 in this case is based on the power generation output of the temporary operation pattern as the base output.
Pp1 = [(Predicted energy reduction amount when operating the combined heat and power unit when operating the power plant at the specific output of the combined heat and power unit) − (Operated the power plant when the combined output of the combined heat and power unit is operated) Predicted energy reduction when operating the combined heat and power system for the time)] / [(Predicted effective radiator heat dissipation at the specific output of the combined heat and power system)-(Predicted effective radiator release at the base output of the combined heat and power system) Amount of heat)] (14)
It becomes.

  The energy reduction ratio calculated in this way is, for example, as shown in FIG. In FIG. 18A, the output indicated by “−” in the power generation output column of the fuel cell 6 is the power generation output by the temporary operation pattern, that is, the base output. The predicted energy reduction ratio for a power generation output range smaller than the power generation output is used.

  Next, in connection with the calculation of the predicted energy reduction ratio, the predicted reduced hot water storage amount is calculated (step S8-4). The predicted reduction hot water storage calorific value calculating means 135 is a reduction heat amount that is smaller than the predicted heat output generated by the power generation output of the temporary operation pattern for the power generation output range smaller than the power generation output of the set temporary operation pattern, that is, the predicted reduction hot water storage. Calculate the amount of heat. This predicted reduced hot water storage amount is, for example, as shown in the column of predicted reduced heat output of the fuel cell 6 in FIG. 18B. Also in FIG. 18B, “predicted reduced heat output of the fuel cell 6” The power generation output indicated by “−” is the power generation output by the temporary operation pattern, that is, the base output.

  When the predicted energy reduction ratio and the predicted reduced hot water storage heat amount are calculated in this way, the predicted energy reduction ratio is then picked up by the predicted energy reduction ratio selection means 116 (step S8-5). Since this pickup is a correction on the reduction side so as not to generate heat surplus, the time zone range before the first heat surplus time zone, that is, the time when the predicted energy reduction ratio and the predicted reduced hot water storage amount are calculated. The power generation output range is a band range (in this case, the time zone “1” to “4” range) that is smaller than the power generation output of the temporary operation pattern, and as shown in FIG. The ratio selection means 116 corresponds to the power generation output 400W of the fuel cell 6 in the time range from 0 pm to 1 pm (time zone “1”), in which the absolute value is the largest in the negative value range. Select the predicted energy reduction ratio “−1.55”, and modify the temporary operation pattern so that the power generation output corresponding to the predicted energy reduction ratio selected in this way becomes the power generation output of “1” in this time zone, Further It is.

  When picked up in this way, the power generation output of the fuel cell 6 decreases from 600 W to 400 W, and accordingly, the predicted heat output also decreases. Therefore, the predicted hot water storage heat amount calculation means 80 is connected to the hot water storage tank 22 as the output decreases. The predicted amount of stored hot water is calculated (step S8-6). Then, it is determined whether or not the calculated predicted hot water storage amount is equal to or less than the predetermined minimum heat storage amount. When the calculated predicted hot water storage amount is larger than the predetermined minimum heat storage amount, the process proceeds from step S8-7 to step S8-8. Accumulate the predicted reduced hot water storage amount reduced from the heat output of the temporary operation pattern before the update. At the time of the first pickup, the power generation output of the fuel cell 6 decreases from 600 W to 400 W in the time zone “1”, and the predicted reduced hot water storage amount at this time is 300 kcal. As understood from (b), it is 300 kcal.

  Next, the predicted reduced hot water storage amount integration means 138 integrates the predicted reduced hot water storage amount, and it is determined whether this integrated value has reached the predicted hot water storage amount reduction target value (step S8-9), and does not reach the predicted hot water storage amount reduction target value. In this case, the process proceeds from step S8-9 to step S8-10, and the predicted energy reduction ratio is recalculated. The recalculation at this time is performed for the time zone (time zone “1”) in which the predicted energy reduction ratio is picked up, and the power generation output corresponding to the picked up predicted energy reduction ratio (in other words, the power generation of the updated temporary operation pattern). Output, which is 400W) in this case, and is calculated by calculating the predicted energy reduction ratio at the specific power generation output with respect to this power generation output (400W), and corresponding to the picked up predicted energy reduction ratio The smaller power generation output range (in this case, 300 W) is performed, and the recalculation is performed, for example, as shown in the column of time zone “1” in FIG.

  Then, after the recalculation, the process returns to step S8-5 to pick up the predicted energy reduction ratio again, and as shown in FIG. 19 (a), the predicted energy reduction ratio selection unit 136 determines the remaining energy reduction ratio. Among the negative values, the absolute value is the largest, in this case, the predicted energy reduction ratio “corresponding to the power generation output 400 W of the fuel cell 6 in the time zone from 3 pm to 4 pm (time zone“ 4 ”). -1.5 "is selected. Thereafter, Steps S8-6 to S8-9 are performed to determine whether the predicted hot water storage amount is equal to or less than a predetermined minimum heat storage amount, and whether the integrated value of the predicted reduced hot water storage amount has reached the predicted hot water storage amount reduction target value. Steps S8-5 to S8-10 are repeatedly performed until the integrated value of the predicted hot water storage amount reaches the predicted hot water storage reduction target value, and the recalculation of the predicted energy reduction ratio and the pickup of the predicted energy reduction ratio are performed. .

  In this way, the predicted energy reduction ratio “−1.55” (400 W in time zone “1”), “−1.5” (400 W in time zone “4”), “−1.2” (time When the band “3” (400 W) is picked up in sequence and picked up to this stage, as shown in FIG. The heat quantity reduction target value of 1000 kcal is reached, the first reduction correction for heat surplus is completed, and the process proceeds from step S8-8 to step S8-11. In this embodiment, after the predicted energy reduction ratio is picked up, the predicted energy reduction ratio is reproduced for the picked-up time zone. However, without performing this recalculation, the predicted energy reduction ratio calculation means 134 The calculated predicted energy reduction ratio may be picked up in descending order in the negative range.

  In step S8-11, it is determined whether there is a heat surplus time zone in the set time range (24 hours from the current time). If there is a next heat surplus time zone, the reduction target pickup means 128 The second heat surplus time zone is picked up in the order of the times, the process returns to step S8-1, and the reduction correction for the heat surplus in the second heat surplus time zone is performed.

  As shown in FIG. 21A, for example, the first heat surplus exists in the time zone from 4 pm to 5 pm (time zone “5”), for example, the time zone from 6 pm to 7 pm When the second heat surplus exists in (time zone “7”), first, the reduction correction for the first heat surplus is performed, and the predicted heat storage heat amount reduction target value of this heat surplus is 1000 kcal. As described above, in the time zone range before the first heat surplus time zone, the predicted energy reduction ratio is picked up until the integrated value of the predicted reduced hot water storage amount reaches the predicted hot water storage heat reduction target value, The predicted energy reduction ratio selection means 136 sequentially picks up the predicted energy reduction ratio in descending order of the absolute value, and corrects the predetermined set time of the picked up fuel cell 2 as shown in FIGS. 21 (a) and (b). The output is As a first provisional drive pattern for the first heat surplus is registered in the memory unit 102.

  Next, as shown in FIGS. 22 (a) and 22 (b), if the second heat surplus is reduced and corrected, and if the predicted heat surplus heat reduction target value of this heat surplus is 400 kcal, then the second In the time zone range before the heat surplus time zone (time zone “7”), that is, the time zone “1” to the time zone “6”, the integrated value of the predicted reduced hot water storage amount is the predicted hot water storage heat reduction target value. The estimated energy reduction ratio is picked up until the value is reached. At this time, since the first temporary operation pattern corrected on the reduction side to correspond to the first heat surplus is provisionally set, based on the power generation output of the corrected first temporary operation pattern, this Calculation of the predicted energy reduction ratio and the predicted reduced hot water storage amount is performed for the power generation output range smaller than the power generation output, and the predicted reduction ratio and the predicted increased hot water storage amount calculated in this way are shown in, for example, FIGS. ).

  After the calculation, as described above, in the time zone range before the second heat surplus time zone, the predicted energy until the integrated value of the predicted reduced hot water storage amount reaches the predicted hot water storage amount reduction target value. A reduction ratio pickup is performed, and the pickup is performed in the order of increasing absolute value in a negative value range. At this time, since the second target heat surplus predicted hot water storage amount reduction target value is 400 kcal, for example, the predicted energy reduction ratio selection means 136, as shown in FIG. 2 ”(500 W in time zone“ 5 ”) is picked up, and then the recalculation of the predicted energy reduction ratio and the pick-up are performed in the same manner as described above until the time shown in FIGS. 23 (a) and (b), The corrected output of the fuel cell 2 picked up in this way is registered in the memory means 102 as the second temporary operation pattern for the first and second heat surpluses. In addition, when the predicted energy reduction ratio is picked up even for the second heat surplus, in the picked up time zone, based on the power generation output corresponding to the picked up predicted energy reduction ratio, The energy reduction ratio is recalculated for a small power generation range. Note that the third and subsequent heat surpluses are based on the second (third ...) temporary operation pattern up to the second (third ...) heat surplus. In the same manner as the second heat surplus, the reduction correction is performed on the third (fourth...) Heat surplus.

  In this way, when all of the heat surplus existing in the set time range, for example, the nth heat shortage is corrected for the temporary operation pattern and the correction for the total heat surplus up to the nth is performed, the step is performed. Proceeding from step S8-11 to step S8-14, the nth provisional operation pattern corrected for reduction is registered in the memory means 102 as a provisional operation modification pattern. If there is a heat shortage time zone in which the amount of stored hot water in the hot water storage tank 22 is insufficient before the next heat surplus time zone, for example, between the second and third heat surplus time zones, this heat shortage occurs. Since the boiler means 42 operates in the time zone, the temporary operation pattern reduction correction in the time zone before the heat shortage time zone is not preferable. For this reason, the reduction target pickup prohibiting means 130 prohibits the pickup for the heat surplus that occurs after the heat shortage time zone (step S8-13), and the temporary operation pattern for the heat surplus that occurs after the heat shortage time zone. The temporary correction pattern reduction correction for the heat surplus generated before the heat shortage time zone is registered as the temporary operation correction pattern (step S8-14).

  In this embodiment, when the predicted energy reduction ratio is picked up, it is determined whether the integrated value of the predicted hot water storage amount has reached the predicted hot water storage amount reduction target value, and the predicted hot water storage amount is equal to or less than the set minimum heat storage amount. When it is less than the set minimum heat storage amount, the process proceeds from step S8-7 to step S8-5 through step S8-15 and step S8-16. Referring to FIGS. 24 (a) and 24 (b) (this FIG. 24 is for explaining prohibition of pick-up and is different from the above-mentioned FIGS. 18 to 23), for example, 5:00 pm If the first heat surplus exists in the time zone of 6 pm (time zone “6”), and the predicted hot water storage heat reduction target value of this heat surplus is 1200 kcal, before this time zone “6” In the time zone, the predicted energy reduction ratio and the predicted reduced hot water storage amount are calculated for a power generation output range smaller than this power generation output based on the power generation output of the temporary operation pattern.

  Even in this case, the pickup of the predicted energy reduction ratio is performed in the time zone range before the first heat surplus time zone, that is, the time zone “1” to the time zone “5”. It is performed in order of increasing absolute value in the range of negative values of the energy reduction ratio, and each time it is picked up, as described above, it is determined whether the predicted hot water storage amount is equal to or less than the predetermined minimum heat storage amount (step S8-7). In addition, it is determined whether the integrated value of the predicted reduced hot water storage amount has reached the predicted hot water storage amount reduction target value (step S8-9).

  When the predicted energy reduction ratio is picked up as described above, for example, when the predicted energy reduction ratio “−1.3” (400 W in time zone “2”) shown in FIG. As understood, the predicted hot water storage amount of the hot water storage tank 22 in the time zone “2” is smaller than the set minimum heat storage amount. Thus, when the predicted hot water storage amount falls below the set minimum heat storage amount, the reduction ratio pickup prohibiting unit 142 prohibits the pickup of the predicted energy reduction ratio (step S8-16), and the time zone during which the predicted heat storage amount does not fall below the set minimum heat storage amount. The time zone is changed to a time zone range (in this case, the time zone “3” to the time zone “5”) after the time zone that is equal to or less than the set minimum heat storage amount (step S8-17). Then, the pickup of the predicted energy reduction ratio is continuously performed in the time zone range (step S8-5), and thereafter, as shown in FIG. 25 (a), the predicted energy reduction ratio “−1.2” ( Time zone "5" 500W) ... is picked up, and the predicted energy reduction ratio until the integrated value of the predicted hot water storage heat amount reaches the predicted hot water storage heat reduction target value Pickup is performed, the increase correction of the temporary operation pattern is performed.

  Returning to FIG. 5, when the tentative operation pattern increase correction is performed as described above, it is determined whether or not the operation based on the threshold is permitted. In this embodiment, the most recent heat from the current time is determined. In all time zones before the shortage time zone (that is, the first time zone in which the predicted hot water storage heat increase target value is generated), the power generation output of the temporary operation correction pattern corrected by the temporary operation pattern correction means 112 is temporary. When the power generation output of the temporary operation pattern set by the operation pattern setting means 76 is larger than the power generation output, the operation with the threshold value is permitted, and the energy reduction ratio threshold value is set as will be described later. In addition, in this time zone, for the time zone in which the power generation output is not increasing, the predicted energy reduction ratio becomes a negative value in all output increases from the power generation output of the temporary operation pattern, and the output increase is selected. (For other time zones, the power generation output of the tentative operation correction pattern is rising), and for the time zone when the power generation output is not rising, the power generation output of the temporary operation pattern is set to the maximum power generation output. The operation with the threshold value is permitted even when the power generation output of the temporary operation correction pattern is increased in other time zones.

  On the other hand, the predicted energy reduction ratio value in the power generation range that is larger than the power generation output of the temporary operation pattern includes a positive value in at least one time zone of the time zone from the current time to before the latest heat shortage time zone. However, when the power generation output of the temporary operation pattern is maintained, the operation based on the threshold value is not permitted.

  Next, setting of the energy reduction ratio threshold value will be described with reference to FIGS. FIG. 26 is a diagram illustrating a temporary operation correction pattern up to the first heat shortage time zone, and FIG. 27 is a diagram illustrating a temporary operation energy reduction ratio when the temporary operation is performed according to the temporary operation correction schedule.

  When operating the threshold value, the threshold value calculation setting means 88 sets an energy reduction ratio threshold value for increasing the output (step S21). For example, if the power generation output of the temporary operation correction pattern is as shown in FIG. 26, that is, 900 W is selected in the time zone “1”, 900 W in the time zone “2”, and 700 W in the time zone “3”. In each of these time zones, based on the power generation output of the temporary operation pattern, the temporary operation energy reduction ratio of the corrected power generation output (power generation output of the temporary operation correction schedule) with respect to this power generation output is calculated as the temporary operation energy reduction ratio calculation means 90. (Calculated in the same manner as the predicted energy reduction ratio), and the calculated value is as shown in FIG. 27, for example. In such a case, the threshold setting means 92 uses the smallest value “1.3” (900 W in the time zone “3”) of the temporary operation energy reduction ratio as the energy reduction ratio threshold for increasing the output. Set.

  In the operation in the threshold operation mode using this energy reduction ratio threshold value (also simply referred to as “threshold value”) (step S22), the current energy reduction ratio calculation means 96 includes the current power load (for example, 5 min. Moving average electric load) and the time to the hot water storage increase target based on the predicted hot water supply heat load and the predicted power load. For example, a current energy reduction ratio in an output of 100 W in a range of 300 W to 1000 W) can be calculated, and the calculation of the current energy reduction ratio can be calculated in the same manner as the predicted energy reduction ratio described above. Then, the current energy reduction ratio of each power generation output is compared with the energy reduction ratio threshold value, and when at least one of these current energy reduction ratios exceeds the threshold value, the power generation output setting means 98 The largest output among the power generation outputs corresponding to the current energy reduction ratio exceeding this threshold is set as the power generation output, and the fuel cell 6 is operated with this power generation output.

  On the other hand, if none of the current energy reduction ratios of the respective power generation outputs exceeds the threshold value, the power generation output setting means 98 does not set the power generation output, and the fuel cell 6 is operated to cover the current power load. The As this current power load, for example, an average value of power loads from the present time to 5 minutes before can be used. When the fuel cell 6 is operated so as to cover the current power load (including operation in the main operation mode), the operation is controlled with a power generation output that is somewhat smaller (for example, about 20 to 50 W) than the current power load. You may do it.

  Further, when the provisional driving pattern reduction correction is performed as described above, in this case as well, it is determined whether or not driving based on the threshold value is permitted. In this embodiment, the latest time from the current time is determined. In each time zone before the heat surplus time zone (that is, the first time zone in which the predicted hot water storage heat amount reduction target value is generated), the power generation output of the temporary operation correction pattern corrected by the temporary operation pattern correction means 132 is obtained. When the power generation output of the temporary operation pattern set by the temporary operation pattern setting means 76 is smaller than that of the temporary operation pattern, the operation based on the threshold value is permitted, and the energy reduction ratio threshold value for reducing the output is set as will be described later. . In addition, in this time zone, for the time zone in which the power generation output is not decreasing, the predicted energy reduction ratio becomes a positive value in all output reductions from the power generation output of the temporary operation pattern, and the output reduction is selected. (For other time zones, the power generation output of the temporary operation correction pattern has decreased). In the time zone when the power generation output has not decreased, the power generation output of the temporary operation pattern is set to the minimum power generation output. The operation with the threshold value is permitted even when the power generation output of the temporary operation correction pattern is reduced for other time zones.

  On the other hand, the predicted energy reduction ratio value in the power generation range that is smaller than the power generation output of the temporary operation pattern includes a negative value in at least one time zone in the time zone from the current time to before the latest heat shortage time zone. However, when the power generation output of the temporary operation pattern is maintained, the operation based on the threshold value is not permitted.

  Next, the setting of the energy reduction ratio threshold value in the above case will be described with reference to FIGS. FIG. 28 is a diagram illustrating a temporary operation correction pattern up to the first heat surplus time zone, and FIG. 29 is a diagram illustrating a temporary operation energy reduction ratio when the temporary operation is performed according to the temporary operation correction schedule. When operating the threshold value, the threshold value calculation setting means 88 sets the energy reduction ratio threshold value (step S16). For example, the power generation output of the temporary operation correction pattern is as shown in FIG. 28, that is, 300 W in the time zone “1”, 600 W in the time zone “2”, 300 W in the time zone “3”, and 300 W in the time zone “4”. Also, assuming that 400 W is selected in the time zone “5”, in each of these time zones, based on the power generation output of the temporary operation pattern, the corrected power generation output for this power generation output (the power generation output of the temporary operation correction schedule) ) Is calculated by the temporary operation energy reduction ratio calculation means 90 (calculated in the same manner as the predicted energy reduction ratio), and the calculated value is as shown in FIG. 29, for example. In such a case, the threshold value setting means 92 outputs the absolute value of “−1.0” (300 W in the time zone “1”) having the smallest absolute value among the temporary operation energy reduction ratios for output reduction. Is set as an energy reduction ratio threshold value (“1.0”).

  In the operation in the threshold operation mode using this energy reduction ratio threshold value (step S17), the current energy reduction ratio calculation means 96 performs the current power load (for example, the moving average electric load for 5 minutes) and the prediction at the present time. Considering the time to the hot water storage reduction target based on the hot water supply heat load and the predicted power load, each power generation output of the fuel cell 6 with respect to the power generation output of the main operation by the current power load (for example, in 100 W increments in the range of 300 W to 1000 W) The current energy reduction ratio is calculated in the same manner as described above. Then, the current energy reduction ratio of each power generation output is compared with the energy reduction ratio threshold value, and when at least one of the absolute values of these current energy reduction ratios exceeds the threshold value, the power generation output setting means 98 sets the smallest output among the power generation outputs corresponding to the current energy reduction ratio of the absolute value exceeding the threshold value as the power generation output, and the fuel cell 6 is operated with this power generation output.

  On the other hand, if none of the current energy reduction ratios of the absolute values of the respective power generation outputs exceed the threshold value, the power generation output is not set by the power generation output setting means 98, and the fuel cell 6 seems to cover the current power load. Drive to. In this case as well, the operation control may be performed with a power generation output somewhat smaller than the current power load.

  In the above-described embodiment, the cogeneration system is provided with a heating device. However, the control is not considered in the heating device (that is, the operating state in which the heating device is not operated), but the heating device is provided. In the thing, while being able to make the structure of a cogeneration system comparatively simple by comprising as shown in FIGS. 30-45, the calorie | heat amount and hot water storage apparatus which are used with the heating apparatus at the time of operating a heating apparatus Therefore, it is possible to easily and accurately calculate the amount of stored hot water stored as hot water. FIG. 30 is a system block diagram schematically illustrating a cogeneration system according to another embodiment, and FIG. 31 is a block diagram schematically illustrating a part of a control system of the cogeneration system of FIG. In other embodiments, components that are substantially the same as those described above are denoted by the same reference numerals, and description thereof is omitted.

In FIG. 30, this cogeneration system includes the same combined heat and power supply device 2 and hot water storage device 4 as described above, and the combined heat and power supply device 2 is composed of a fuel cell 6. An inverter 10 is provided on the output side of the fuel cell 6, and this inverter 10 is electrically connected to a power load 16 via a commercial power supply line 14, and the commercial system 12 is also powered via the power supply line 14. Electrically connected to the load 16, the power supply line 14 is provided with power load measuring means 20. The hot water storage device 4 </ b> A includes a hot water storage tank 22. A water supply flow path 36 is connected to the bottom of the hot water storage tank 22, and a hot water discharge water flow path 40 is connected to the upper portion of the hot water storage tank 22. A flow rate sensor 41 and a temperature sensor 43 are disposed in the hot water flow path 40, and a hot water detection means 44 including five temperature sensors 45 is provided in the hot water storage tank 22. In this embodiment, the hot water storage tank 22 and the fuel cell 6 are connected via the circulation channel 202, and water at the bottom of the hot water storage tank 22 is connected to the circulation channel 202 and the fuel cell 6. In the hot water storage tank 22, the hot water is stored in layers so that the hot water is on the upper side and the water is on the lower side. A circulation pump 48 is disposed on the downstream side of the fuel cell 6 in the circulation channel 202, and the downstream side of the circulation pump 48 and the upstream side of the fuel cell 6 are connected via a heat radiation channel 51. A radiator 53 is provided on the road 51. An opening / closing valve 55 is disposed on the downstream side of the connection portion of the circulation channel 20 with the heat radiation channel 51, and an opening / closing valve 57 is disposed in the heat radiation channel 51. Further, on the downstream side of the on-off valve 55, heater means 52 is provided for recovering surplus power generated by the fuel cell 6 with heat. The circulation pump 48, the heat radiation channel 52, the configuration related thereto and the configuration related to the heater means 52 are substantially the same as those in the above-described embodiment.

  In this embodiment, a bypass channel 204 is further provided by bypassing a part of the circulation channel 202 (specifically, the downstream side of the portion where the heater means 52 is disposed). A heating channel 208 is provided via a heat exchanger 206, and a heating device 210 and a heating pump 212 are disposed in the heating channel 208. Further, a three-way valve 214 is disposed at a connection portion between the upstream portion of the bypass flow path 204 and the circulation flow path 202. When the three-way valve 214 is in the first state, the bypass flow path 204 is closed, and the fuel cell 6 flows through the circulation passage 202, and when the three-way valve 214 is in the second state, the circulation passage 202 is closed, and the warm water from the fuel cell 6 passes through the bypass passage 204 (ie, the heat exchanger 206). ) The heating device 210 is a floor heating device, a bathroom heating dryer or the like.

  Further, the boiler means is composed of the first boiler means 216 and the second boiler means 218, and the first boiler means 216 is disposed in the hot water hot water flow path 40, and the temperature of the hot water flowing through the hot water hot water flow path 40 is low. The second boiler means 218 is disposed in the heating flow path 208 and operates to warm when the temperature of the hot water flowing through the heating flow path 208 is low.

  The cogeneration system of this other embodiment is controlled by the control system shown in FIG. In FIG. 31, the control means 70A is referred to, the control means 70 is composed of, for example, a microcomputer, and the predicted heat load calculating means 74A calculates the predicted hot water supply heat load based on the past hot water supply heat load. Based on the predicted hot water supply heat load calculating means 220 and the past heating heat load (the amount of heat used in the heating device 210 out of the amount of heat generated in the combined heat and power supply device 2), the predicted heating heat load (predicted heating use heat amount) is calculated. Predicted heating heat load calculating means 222 for calculating a predicted hot water supply heat load and a predicted heating heat load as the predicted heat load. In addition, the control means 70A includes a predicted heating use heat amount calculation means 224, a predicted average temperature calculation means 226 in the tank, in relation to the heat generated in the combined heat and power supply device 6 being used for heating the heating apparatus 210. Predicted hot water storage amount calculation means 228, predicted hot water storage temperature calculation means 230, and predicted heating load ratio change means 232 are included. Predicted heating use heat amount calculation means 224 calculates the predicted heating use heat amount used in heating device 210. In the case of this embodiment, the predicted heating heat load is calculated using the ratio of the hot water circulation time to the predetermined set time (for example, 20 minutes), and the heating heat load of 0.9 is 18 minutes out of 20 minutes. When heating water flows and the heating load ratio is the maximum, that is, 100%, the heating load becomes 0.9. It is calculated by doing. Further, the predicted average temperature entering the tank 226 calculates the average temperature of the hot water flowing into the hot water storage tank 22. In this embodiment, when the heat from the combined heat and power supply device 2 (fuel cell 6) is not used for the heating device 210, the hot water from the combined heat and power supply device 2 is stored as it is in the hot water storage tank 22, and the temperature of the hot water at this time is about When the heat from the combined heat and power supply device 2 is used for the heating device 210, the heat of the hot water from the combined heat and power supply device 2 is taken by the warm water flowing through the heating flow path 208 via the heat exchanger 206, The temperature-decreased hot water is stored in the hot water storage tank 22, and the temperature of the hot water at this time is about 46 ° C., and the tank-entered predicted average temperature calculating means 226 uses the hot water circulation rate of the heating device 210 to enter the tank-inside average temperature. Is calculated. Further, the predicted hot water storage amount calculating means 228 calculates the predicted hot water storage amount stored in the hot water storage tank 22, and in this embodiment, the predicted hot water storage amount is calculated based on the predicted heat output of the combined heat and power supply device 2 (fuel cell 6). It is calculated by calculating the amount of hot water and adding the predicted amount of hot water in the tank to the amount of hot water stored in the hot water storage tank 22. A hot water temperature detecting means for detecting the temperature of the inflowing hot water and a hot water flow rate detecting means for detecting the flow rate thereof are provided on the inflow side of the hot water storage tank 22, and the detected temperature of the hot water temperature detecting means and the detected flow rate of the hot water flow rate detecting means. May be used to calculate the predicted amount of heat used for heating, the predicted average temperature in the tank, and the predicted amount of hot water storage.

  Further, the predicted hot water temperature calculating means 230 calculates the temperature of the predicted hot water amount stored in the hot water storage tank 22, and in this embodiment, the amount of hot water stored in the hot water storage tank 22, its hot water temperature, and the combined heat and power supply device. The predicted hot water storage temperature is calculated based on the predicted amount of hot water in the tank stored in the hot water storage tank 22 by the operation of No. 2 and the average temperature in the tank. In relation to this, the predicted hot water storage heat amount calculation means 80A calculates the predicted hot water storage heat amount by adding the predicted hot water temperature to the predicted hot water storage amount stored in the hot water storage tank 22. Further, the predicted heating load ratio changing means 232 changes the predicted heating load ratio as will be described later. In this embodiment, the predicted heating load ratio can be changed in three stages of 100% (predicted heating load: 0.9), 50% (preliminary heating load: 0.45), and 0% (heating load: 0). As will be described later, it is changed in descending order of 100%, 50%, and 0%.

  Further, in this embodiment, in relation to using the heat from the combined heat and power supply device 2 for the heating device 208, the threshold value calculation setting means 88A calculates the temporary operation energy reduction ratio calculation means 90A as described later, The current energy reduction ratio calculation means 96A calculates as will be described later. The other configuration of the control means 70A is substantially the same as that of the above-described embodiment.

  The control of this cogeneration system will be described with reference to FIGS. 32 to 34 together with FIGS. 30 and 31. The predicted power load is calculated for a predetermined set time range from the current time, in this embodiment, 24 hours. (Step S31), the predicted hot water supply thermal load in the predetermined set time range is calculated (step S32), and the predicted heating heat load in the predetermined set time range is further calculated (step S33). The calculation of the predicted power load is performed by the predicted power load calculation means 72 based on the past power load data. The predicted power load is as shown in FIG. 33A, for example, and the calculation of the predicted hot water supply thermal load is performed in the past. The predicted hot water supply heat load calculation means 220 is performed based on the heat load. The predicted hot water supply heat load is as shown in FIG. 33B, for example, and the calculation of the predicted heating heat load (predicted heating use heat amount) is performed in the past heating. It is performed by the predicted heating heat load calculating means 222 based on the heat load (heating heat amount), and this predicted heating heat load is as shown in FIG. 33 (c), for example. Also in this embodiment, the time zone for calculating the predicted power load, the predicted hot water supply heat load and the predicted heating heat load is set to one hour unit, but may be set to, for example, 0.5 hour unit, 0.25 hour unit, etc. it can.

  Next, a temporary operation pattern is set so as to cover the predicted power load (step S34). As described above, the provisional operation pattern is set by the provisional operation pattern setting means 76. The minimum output of the power generation output of the fuel cell 6 is 300 W, and the predicted power load is shown in FIG. If it is, the operation pattern is as shown in step form in FIG. 33 (a), for example. When this temporary operation pattern is set, the predicted average temperature in the tank is calculated (step S35), the predicted hot water amount is then calculated (step S36), and the predicted hot water temperature is further calculated. (Step S37), and thereafter, the predicted hot water storage amount is calculated (Step S38). The calculation of the predicted average temperature in the tank is performed by the predicted average temperature calculation in the tank 226, the calculation of the predicted hot water amount is performed by the predicted hot water amount calculation means 228, and the predicted hot water temperature is calculated by the predicted hot water temperature calculation means 230. Further, the predicted hot water storage amount calculation is performed by the predicted hot water storage amount calculation means 228. The predicted hot water storage amount is as shown in FIG. 33 (d), for example.

  When the predicted hot water storage amount is calculated in this way, it is determined whether a reduction target for reducing the predicted hot water storage amount has been determined (step S39). That is, as shown in FIG. 33 (e), the predicted hot water storage amount of the hot water storage tank 22 is equal to or greater than the set maximum heat storage amount, for example, the hot water storage amount that the hot water storage tank 22 is filled with hot water at a predetermined temperature (for example, 60 ° C) Is determined, and if it is equal to or greater than the set maximum heat storage amount, the process proceeds from step S39 to step S40, and the correction mode setting means 82 sets the reduction correction mode. When the predicted amount of stored hot water in the hot water storage tank 22 exceeds the set maximum heat storage amount, the on-off valve 55 is closed and the on-off valve 57 is opened, so that the hot water flowing through the fuel cell 6 flows through the heat dissipation passage 51 and the radiator 53 The heat is dissipated to the atmosphere at, and the heat of the combined heat and power supply device 2 is wasted, so the reduction correction mode is set, and the temporary operation pattern reduction side correction is performed (step S41).

  Further, when the process proceeds from step S39 to step S42, it is determined whether or not an increase target for increasing the predicted hot water storage amount is determined. That is, as shown in FIG. 33 (e), it is determined that the predicted hot water storage amount of the hot water storage tank 22 is equal to or less than the set minimum heat storage amount, for example, the hot water storage amount where the hot water in the hot water storage tank 22 runs out. In step S42, the correction mode setting unit 82 sets the increase correction mode. When the predicted amount of stored hot water in the hot water storage tank 22 is less than or equal to the set minimum heat storage amount, the first boiler means 216 is operated to generate hot water, and the hot water generated by the first boiler means 216 is supplied through the hot water outlet channel 40. Then, the increase correction mode is set in order for the first boiler means 216 to be used wastefully, and the temporary correction pattern increase side correction is performed (step S45).

  When neither the reduction target nor the increase target is determined, the process proceeds from step S39 to step S43 through step S42. In this case, the operation mode setting means 94 sets the main operation mode, and the operation control means 100 controls the operation of the cogeneration system so as to cover the current power load as will be described later.

  Referring to FIGS. 33 and 34, for example, the predicted power load is as shown in the predicted power load column of FIGS. 33 (a) and 34, and the predicted hot water supply heat load is the predicted hot water supply of FIGS. 33 (b) and 34. As shown in the heat load column, the predicted heating heat load (in other words, the predicted amount of heat used for heating) is as shown in the predicted heating heat load column of FIG. 33 (c) and FIG. 34. The predicted power generation output of the fuel cell 6 by the temporary operation pattern is as shown in the predicted power generation output column of FIG. 34, and the predicted average temperature in the tank by this temporary operation pattern is as shown in the predicted average temperature in the tank of FIG. The predicted hot water storage amount of the hot water storage tank 22 at this time is as shown in the predicted hot water storage column of FIG. 34, and the predicted hot water storage temperature of the hot water stored in the hot water storage tank 22 is as shown in the predicted tank hot water storage temperature column of FIG. Hot water storage tank 22 Assuming that the stored hot water storage amount is as shown in the predicted hot water storage amount column of FIG. 33 (d) and FIG. 34, as shown in the predicted heat dissipation amount column of the radiator 53 of FIG. 33 (e) and FIG. For example, heat of 1000 kcal is generated in the time zone of 3 pm, heat of 1000 kcal is generated in the time zone of 3 pm to 4 pm, and the first boiler means 42 in FIGS. 33 (e) and 34 is used. As shown in the predicted hot water supply heat quantity column, a shortage of 4000 kcal of hot water occurs in the time zone from 5:00 pm to 6:00 pm, and hot water is supplied by the first boiler means 216.

  If the reduction correction mode is set and the reduction side correction of the temporary operation pattern is performed as will be described later, steps S46 to S50 are performed. Is basically the same as

  Further, when the increase correction mode is set and the increase side correction of the temporary operation pattern is performed, steps S51 to S55 are performed, and the contents of these steps S51 to S55 are the same as those in steps S18 to S22 in the above-described embodiment. It is basically the same as the content.

  Next, the increase side correction of the temporary operation pattern performed to suppress the hot water supply by the first boiler means 216 will be described. FIG. 35 is a flowchart showing the flow of correction of the temporary operation pattern on the increase side, FIG. 36 is a diagram for explaining the first pickup of the predicted energy reduction ratio, and FIG. 37 is the first diagram. FIG. 38 is a diagram for explaining the pickup for the heat shortage in the heat shortage time zone, and FIG. 38 is a diagram for explaining the first pickup of the predicted energy reduction ratio when the predicted heating load ratio is lowered by one step. FIG. 39 is a diagram for explaining a pickup for heat shortage in the first heat shortage time zone when the predicted heating load ratio is lowered by one step, and FIG. 40 shows the predicted heating load ratio. It is a figure for demonstrating the 1st pick-up of the prediction energy reduction ratio in the case of reducing in two steps, and FIG. 41 reduces the prediction heating load ratio in two steps. Is a diagram for explaining the pickup to heat shortage of the first heat shortage time period when the.

  The case where the temporary side operation pattern increase side correction is performed will be described mainly with reference to FIG. 31 and FIGS. Note that the configuration of the increasing-side correction unit 84 of the control unit 70A is substantially the same as that of the above-described embodiment. Therefore, refer to FIG. 3 for the specific configuration.

  In this case, the heat shortage time zone is selected (step S45-1). The selection of the heat shortage time zone is performed in the same manner as described above by the increase target pickup means of the increase side correction means 84. For example, as shown in FIG. If the first heat shortage (ie, shortage of hot water) occurs in the 4 o'clock time zone (time zone “4” in FIG. 37), for example, 3000 kcal, this time zone “4” is determined. Note that the description with reference to FIGS. 36 to 41 is different from the content in FIG. 37 for easy understanding.

  When the first heat shortage time zone (time zone “4”) is selected, the predicted hot water storage heat amount increase target value in this heat shortage time zone is calculated by the increase target value calculation means of the increase side correction means 84 (step) S45-2) The predicted hot water storage heat amount increase target value is a predicted hot water storage amount so that the first boiler means 216 does not operate in this heat shortage time period so that heat shortage (hot water shortage) does not occur. An increase target value is calculated.

  Next, the predicted energy reduction ratio is calculated for the time zone range before the first heat shortage time zone (time zone “4”), that is, each time zone from 0:00 pm to 3:00 pm (step) S45-3). The calculation of the predicted energy reduction ratio is performed by the predicted energy reduction ratio calculation means of the increase side correction means 84. In this case, since the correction is an increase side correction, it is set using the predicted hot water storage amount, preferably the predicted effective hot water storage amount. Calculation of the predicted energy reduction ratio is performed for a power generation output range larger than the power generation output of the temporary operation pattern. In this embodiment, the minimum power generation output of the fuel cell 6 is 300 W, the maximum power generation output is 1000 W, and the calculation of the predicted energy reduction ratio is performed in increments of 100 W of the fuel cell 6. .

In this embodiment, since the heat generated by the combined heat and power supply device 2 is used in the heating device, in consideration of this, the calculation of the predicted energy reduction ratio is performed using the following equation (15). The energy reduction ratio Pp is
Pp = [(Predicted energy reduction when operating the combined heat and power unit when operating the power plant and boiler means at the specific output of the combined heat and power unit)-(Power generation at the base output of the combined heat and power unit) Predicted energy reduction when operating the combined heat and power unit when the power plant and boiler means are operated)] / {[(Predicted effective hot water storage amount at the specific output of the combined heat and power unit) + (Specific output of the combined heat and power unit) Of heat output during heating)]-[(Predicted effective amount of stored hot water at base output of cogeneration device) + (Use of heating output at base output of cogeneration device for heating device) Amount of heat)]} (15)
It becomes. The first boiler means is used for hot water supply, and the second boiler means is used for heating. However, when the first and second boiler means are substantially the same, the first and second boilers are used. The means can be boiler means.

  The energy reduction ratio calculated in this way is as shown in FIG. 36, for example. In FIG. 36, the output indicated by “−” in the predicted energy reduction ratio column is the power generation output by the temporary operation pattern (that is, the base output), and in the case of the increase side correction, the power generation output of this temporary operation pattern. A predicted energy reduction ratio for a larger power generation output range is calculated.

  Next, in relation to the calculation of the predicted energy reduction ratio, the predicted increase in hot water storage is calculated (step S45-4). The predicted increased hot water storage calorific value calculation means of the increase side correction means 84 increases the amount of heat increased from the predicted heat output generated by the power generation output of the temporary operation pattern for the power generation output range larger than the power generation output of the set temporary operation pattern. That is, the predicted increased hot water storage heat amount is calculated, and this predicted increased hot water storage heat amount is, for example, as shown in the column of the predicted increased heat output of the fuel cell 6 in FIG.

  When the predicted energy reduction ratio and the predicted increased hot water storage heat quantity are calculated in this way, the predicted energy reduction ratio is then picked up by the predicted energy reduction ratio selection means of the increasing side correction means 84 (step S45-5). As in the above-described embodiment, this pickup is in the time zone range (in this case, the time zone “1” to “3” range) before the first heat shortage time zone, The power generation output range larger than the power generation output is performed, and as shown in FIG. 36, the predicted energy reduction ratio selection means has the largest value in the positive value range, in this case, the time zone from 0 pm to 1 pm ( The predicted energy reduction ratio “1.8” corresponding to the power generation output 600 W of the fuel cell 6 in the time zone “1”) is selected, and the power generation output corresponding to the predicted energy reduction ratio thus selected is the time zone “1”. The temporary operation pattern is corrected and updated so that the power generation output is “1”.

  By picking up in this way, the power generation output of the fuel cell 6 increases from 300 W to 600 W, so that the predicted hot water storage amount of the hot water storage tank 22 increases as the predicted heat output of the fuel cell 6 increases. The calculation means 80A calculates the predicted amount of stored hot water in the hot water storage tank 22 as the output increases as described above (step S45-6). Then, it is determined whether or not the calculated predicted hot water storage amount is equal to or greater than the predetermined maximum heat storage amount. If the calculated predicted hot water storage amount is smaller than the predetermined maximum heat storage amount, the process proceeds from step S45-7 to step S45-8. The calorific value integration means is a predicted increased hot water storage amount of the hot water storage tank 22 according to the pre-update temporary operation pattern and a predicted increased hot water storage amount of heat after the update of the hot water storage tank 22 (in other words, an increase from the main control Accumulated hot water calorific value). As described above, in this embodiment, the predicted hot water storage heat amount calculation means 80A calculates the predicted hot water storage heat amount based on the predicted hot water storage amount of the hot water storage tank 22 and the predicted tank hot water storage temperature.

  Next, it is determined whether or not the integrated value of the predicted increased hot water storage heat amount integration means 118 has reached the predicted hot water storage heat amount increase target value (step S45-9). In (predicted heating load: 0.9), it is determined whether or not the recalculation of the predicted energy reduction ratio is possible (step S45-10). If recalculation is possible, the process proceeds to step S45-11, and the recalculation of the predicted energy reduction ratio is performed. Is done. Similar to the above-described embodiment, the recalculation at this time is performed for the time zone in which the predicted energy reduction ratio is picked up (time zone “1”), based on the power generation output corresponding to the picked up predicted energy reduction ratio, It is performed by calculating a predicted energy reduction ratio at the time of specific power generation relative to this power generation output (600 W), and a power generation output range larger than the power generation output corresponding to the picked-up predicted energy reduction ratio (in this case, 700 W, 800 W) , 900W, 1000W).

  After the recalculation, the process returns to step S45-5, and steps S45-5 to S45-11 are performed repeatedly until the predicted hot water storage heat amount increase target is reached. The process moves to S45-12. On the other hand, if the predicted energy reduction ratio pickup described above does not reach the predicted hot water storage heat increase target value, the process proceeds from step S45-10 to step S45-13 to determine whether the predicted heating load ratio can be changed. If the load ratio can be changed, the process proceeds to step S45-14, and the predicted heating heat load ratio is changed. Even if the pickup of the predicted energy reduction ratio is performed to the maximum, the predicted hot water storage increase heat quantity increases only by, for example, 2500 kcal, for example, a shortage of heat quantity of, for example, 500 kcal occurs. As shown in 39, the predicted heating load ratio is changed from 100% (predicted heating load: 0.9) to 50% (predicted heating load: 0.45).

  When the setting change of the predicted heating load ratio is thus performed, the predicted energy reduction ratio is recalculated using the set predicted heating load ratio (step S45-15), and then the process returns to step S45-5. As described above, Steps S45-5 to S45-11 are performed and repeated until the predicted hot water storage heat amount increase target is reached. When the predicted hot water storage heat increase target value is reached with the set predicted heating load ratio, Step S45 is performed. Move on to -12. On the other hand, if the predicted energy reduction ratio pickup mentioned above does not reach the predicted hot water storage heat increase target value, the process moves from step S45-10 to step S45-13 again to determine whether the predicted heating load ratio can be changed. If the heating load ratio can be changed, the process proceeds to step S45-14, and the predicted heating heat load ratio is changed again. Even if the pickup of the predicted energy reduction ratio is carried out to the maximum, the predicted hot water storage increased heat quantity increases only by, for example, 2500 kcal, resulting in a shortage of heat quantity of, for example, 200 kcal (in this case, the amount of heat used by the heating device 210 is small and the combined heat and power supply device 2 The amount of generated heat is stored in the hot water storage tank 22 more. Therefore, the target value for increasing the amount of stored hot water in the time zone “4” is as small as 2700 kcal, for example. In this case, as shown in FIGS. 40 and 41, the predicted heating load ratio changing means 232 changes the predicted heating load ratio from 50% (predicted heating load: 0.45) to 0% (predicted heating load: 0). Change the setting to).

  When the setting change of the predicted heating load ratio is performed in this manner, the predicted energy reduction ratio is recalculated using the reset predicted heating load ratio as described above (step S45-15), and thereafter Returning to Step S45-5, Steps S45-5 to S45-11 are performed in the same manner as described above, and are repeatedly performed until the predicted hot water storage heat amount increase target is reached. When the target value is reached, the process proceeds to step S45-12. On the other hand, when the predicted energy reduction ratio pickup described above does not reach the predicted hot water storage heat increase target value, the process proceeds from step S45-10 to step S45-13 again, and it is determined whether the predicted heating load ratio can be changed. Even if the pickup of the predicted energy reduction ratio is performed to the maximum, the predicted hot water storage increased heat amount increases, for example, only 2200 kcal, for example, a shortage of heat of 100 kcal occurs (in this case, the generated heat amount of the combined heat and power supply device 2 is not used for the heating device 210). Therefore, all of the generated heat amount is stored in the hot water storage tank 22 as hot water. Therefore, the hot water storage heat amount increase target value in the time zone “4” is as small as 2300 kcal, for example. 100 kcal heat shortage). In this case, since the setting change by the predicted heating load ratio changing means 232 is not allowed, the pickup for the heat shortage in the first heat shortage time zone is completed with the temporary operation pattern at this stage.

  In this embodiment, the predicted heating load ratio is configured to be changeable in three stages, for example, 100%, 50%, and 0%. However, the predicted heating load ratio is appropriately set in two stages or four or more stages. It can also be configured to be settable at this stage.

  When the process proceeds to step S45-12 as described above, it is determined whether or not a heat shortage time zone exists in the set time range (24 hours from the current time). The means 110 picks up the second heat shortage time zone in the order of the time from the present time, returns to step S45-1, and performs an increase correction for the heat shortage in the second heat shortage time zone. The second pickup is performed as described above with reference to FIGS. Then, when all the heat shortages existing in the set time range, for example, the nth heat shortage is increased and the temporary operation pattern is increased and corrected until the nth total heat shortage is increased, step S45- The process proceeds from step 12 to step S45-18, and the n-th provisional operation pattern that has been corrected for correction is registered in the memory means 102 as a provisional operation correction pattern.

  As described above, if there is a heat surplus time zone in which the predicted amount of stored hot water in the hot water storage tank 22 is excessive before the next heat shortage time zone, the increase target pickup prohibiting means of the increasing side correction means 84 is Then, the pickup for the heat shortage occurring after the heat surplus time zone is prohibited (step S45-17), and the temporary operation pattern for the heat shortage occurring after the heat surplus time zone is not corrected, and the heat surplus time zone is not corrected. An increase correction of the temporary operation pattern for the generated heat shortage is registered as a temporary operation correction pattern (step S45-18).

  Also in this embodiment, as described above, when the predicted energy reduction ratio is picked up, it is determined whether or not the predicted hot water storage amount of the hot water storage tank 22 is equal to or greater than the set maximum heat storage amount. In the event of a failure, step S45-7 is followed by step S45-19 and step S45-20 to step S45-5.

Next, the reduction side correction of the temporary operation pattern will be described. This reduction side correction is performed in the same manner as described above by the reduction side correction means 86 of the control means 70A. At this time, since it is a reduction correction, it is not necessary to consider the change of the predicted heating load ratio, and also about the predicted energy reduction ratio Pp1, as described above,
Pp1 = [(Predicted energy reduction amount when operating the combined heat and power unit when operating the power plant at the specific output of the combined heat and power unit) − (Operating the power plant when the combined output of the combined heat and power unit is operated) Predicted energy reduction when operating the combined heat and power system for the time)] / [(Predicted effective radiator heat dissipation at the specific output of the combined heat and power system)-(Predicted effective radiator release at the base output of the combined heat and power system) Amount of heat)] (16)
Since the details are the same as described above, a description thereof will be omitted. Also in this case, when the predicted hot water storage amount of the hot water storage tank 22 is not more than the set minimum heat storage amount, the reduction ratio pickup prohibiting means of the reduction side correcting means 86 prohibits the pickup of the predicted energy reduction ratio and sets the minimum Pick up the predicted energy reduction ratio in a time zone that does not fall below the heat storage amount.

  Returning to FIG. 32, when the temporary operation pattern increase correction is performed as described above, it is determined whether or not the operation based on the threshold is permitted, and the same condition as in the above-described embodiment is satisfied. While the operation with the threshold value is permitted, the operation with the threshold value is not permitted when the above-mentioned conditions not permitted are satisfied.

  Next, the setting of the energy reduction ratio threshold will be described. The setting of the energy reduction ratio is performed in substantially the same manner as in the above-described embodiment, and the threshold value calculation setting means 88A performs the threshold operation. An energy reduction ratio threshold value for increasing the output is set (step S55). For example, the power generation output of the temporary operation correction pattern (the predicted heating load is the predicted heating load when the temporary operation correction pattern is set) is as shown in FIG. 42A, that is, the time zone “1”. Is 900 W, time zone “2” is 900 W, and time zone “3” is 700 W. In each of these time zones, this power generation output is corrected based on the power generation output of the temporary operation pattern. The temporary operation energy reduction ratio of the power generation output (the power generation output of the temporary operation correction schedule) is calculated by the temporary operation energy reduction ratio calculation means 90A (calculated in the same manner as the predicted energy reduction ratio). 42 (b). In such a case, the threshold value setting means 92 uses the smallest value “1.3” (700 W in the time zone “3”) of the temporary operation energy reduction ratio as the energy reduction ratio threshold value for increasing the output. Set. At this time, as shown in FIG. 43, the predicted increase in the amount of stored hot water in the hot water storage tank 22 may exceed the target value for increasing the amount of stored hot water as the output of the cogeneration device 2 increases from the main operation (temporary operation pattern). However, even if it exceeds this, calculation by the temporary operation energy reduction ratio calculation means 90A is performed.

  In the operation in the threshold operation mode using this energy reduction ratio threshold value (also simply referred to as “threshold value”) (step S56), the current energy reduction ratio calculation means 96 includes the current power load (for example, 5 minutes of moving average electric load), predicted hot water heat load and predicted heating heat load, and the time to the hot water storage increase target based on the predicted power load, the fuel cell 6 for the power generation output of the main operation by the current power load The current energy reduction ratio at each power generation output (for example, output in increments of 100 W in the range of 300 W to 1000 W) is calculated, and the calculation of the current energy reduction ratio can be performed in the same manner as the predicted energy reduction ratio described above. it can. Then, the current energy reduction ratio of each power generation output is compared with the energy reduction ratio threshold value, and when at least one of these current energy reduction ratios exceeds the threshold value, the power generation output setting means 98 The largest output among the power generation outputs corresponding to the current energy reduction ratio exceeding this threshold is set as the power generation output, and the fuel cell 6 is operated with this power generation output.

  On the other hand, if none of the current energy reduction ratios of the respective power generation outputs exceed the above threshold, the power generation output setting means 98 does not set the power generation output, and the fuel cell 6 is connected to the main power source so as to cover the current power load. Operation in the operation mode is performed. In this main operation mode (including main operation modes in other cases), for example, an average value of the power load from the present time to 5 minutes before can be used as the current power load.

  When this increase correction mode is set, the current heating time corresponding to the predicted heating heat load occurrence time zone (in this embodiment, the time zones “3” and “4”) predicted to generate the predicted heating heat load is set. When the heating device 210 actually operates in the operating time zone, the heat generated in the combined heat and power supply device 2 is used as the heating heat of the heating device 210, and the amount of heat for heating used in the heating device 210 is in the hot water storage tank 22. Only the amount of heat of the predicted heating load set in the modified provisional operation pattern in consideration of heat storage is used, and the time zone range used as heating heat is the time zone corresponding to the above-mentioned heating heat load occurrence time zone late If it falls within this range and falls outside this time zone range, it is no longer used as heat for heating, thus suppressing the occurrence of shortage of hot water in the hot water storage tank 22.

  Further, when the provisional driving pattern reduction correction is performed as described above, it is determined whether or not driving based on the threshold value is permitted in this case as well, and the same conditions as in the above-described embodiment are satisfied. While the operation based on the threshold value is permitted, the operation based on the threshold value is not permitted when the above-mentioned conditions not permitted are satisfied.

  Next, the setting of the energy reduction ratio threshold will be described. The setting of the energy reduction ratio is performed in substantially the same manner as in the above-described embodiment, and the threshold value calculation setting means 88A performs the threshold operation. An energy reduction ratio threshold value for output reduction is set (step S49). For example, the power generation output of the temporary operation correction pattern (the predicted heating load is the predicted heating load when the temporary operation correction pattern is set) is as shown in FIG. 44 (a), that is, the time zone “1”. If 300 W is selected for time zone “2”, 600 W for time zone “3”, and 300 W for time zone “3”, the power output is corrected based on the power generation output of the temporary operation pattern in each of these time zones. The temporary operation energy reduction ratio of the power generation output (the power generation output of the temporary operation correction schedule) is calculated by the temporary operation energy reduction ratio calculation means 90A, and the calculated value is as shown in FIG. 44 (b), for example. In such a case, the threshold setting means 92 sets the absolute value “1.0” (300 W in the time zone “1”), which is the smallest value among the temporary operation energy reduction ratios, as the energy reduction ratio for output reduction. Set as threshold. At this time, as shown in FIG. 45, the predicted reduced hot water storage amount of the hot water storage tank 22 may exceed the hot water storage heat amount reduction target value as the output of the cogeneration device 2 decreases from the main operation (temporary operation pattern). However, even if it exceeds this, calculation by the temporary operation energy reduction ratio calculation means 90A is performed.

  In operation in the threshold operation mode using this energy reduction ratio threshold value (also simply referred to as “threshold value”) (step S50), the current energy reduction ratio calculation unit 96 is configured to display the current power load (for example, 5 minutes moving average electrical load), predicted hot water supply heat load, predicted heating heat load, and predicted power load based on the time to hot water storage reduction target, the fuel cell 6 with respect to the power generation output of the main operation by the current power load The current energy reduction ratio at each power generation output (for example, output in increments of 100 W in the range of 300 W to 1000 W) can be calculated, and the calculation of the current energy reduction ratio can be performed in the same manner as described above. Then, the current energy reduction ratio of each power generation output is compared with the energy reduction ratio threshold value, and when at least one of the absolute values of these current energy reduction ratios exceeds the threshold value, the power generation output setting means 98 sets the smallest output among the power generation outputs corresponding to the current energy reduction ratio of the absolute value exceeding the threshold value as the power generation output, and the fuel cell 6 is operated with this power generation output.

  On the other hand, if none of the current energy reduction ratios of the absolute values of the respective power generation outputs exceeds the threshold value, the power generation output is not set by the power generation output setting means 98, and the fuel cell 6 seems to cover the current power load. The operation in the electric main operation mode is performed. In this main operation mode (including main operation modes in other cases), for example, an average value of the power load from the present time to 5 minutes before can be used as the current power load.

  When the reduction correction mode is set, when the heating device 210 is activated in the current operating time zone, the heat generated in the combined heat and power supply device 2 is used as the heating heat of the heating device 210, and thus used for the heating heat. Accordingly, the generated heat can be used as much as possible as the heating heat to suppress the generation of heat radiation.

  As mentioned above, although one Embodiment of the cogeneration system according to this invention was described, this invention is not limited to this Embodiment, A various deformation | transformation thru | or correction | amendment are possible without deviating from the scope of the present invention.

  For example, the flow of FIG. 5 (or the flow of FIG. 32) in the above-described embodiment can be set to be performed at an appropriate time interval such as an interval of 30 minutes or an interval of 60 minutes, for example. In this case, the calculation of the energy reduction ratio, the pickup thereof, etc. are performed at this time interval.

  Further, for example, in the above-described embodiment, the explanation is made by combining the increase correction of the temporary operation pattern for eliminating the heat shortage and the reduction correction of the temporary operation pattern for eliminating the excessive hot water, but the increase correction and the reduction correction. It is also possible to apply alone without combining.

The system block diagram which shows the cogeneration system of one Embodiment simply. The block diagram which shows a part of control system of the cogeneration system of FIG. 1 simply. The block diagram which shows concretely the increase side correction means in the control system of FIG. The block diagram which shows concretely the reduction side correction means in the control system of FIG. The flowchart which shows the outline | summary of control of the cogeneration system of FIG. The figure for demonstrating the thermal radiation amount of a radiator, and the hot water supply calorie | heat amount of a boiler means. The figure which shows the calculation for calculating | requiring the heat radiation amount of the radiator of FIG. 6, and the hot water supply heat amount of a boiler means. The flowchart which shows the flow of the increase side correction of a temporary driving pattern. The figure for demonstrating the 1st pick-up of a prediction energy reduction ratio. The figure for demonstrating the 2nd pickup of an estimated energy reduction ratio. The figure for demonstrating the last pick-up with respect to the heat shortage of the 1st heat shortage time slot | zone. The figure for demonstrating the increase correction with respect to the heat shortage of the 1st heat shortage time slot | zone when the 2nd heat shortage time slot | zone exists. The figure for demonstrating the 1st pick-up with respect to the 2nd heat shortage in case the 2nd heat shortage time slot | zone exists. The figure for demonstrating the last pick-up with respect to the 2nd heat shortage. The figure for demonstrating the pick-up of the prediction energy reduction ratio when it becomes more than a setting maximum heat storage amount during the increase correction with respect to the heat shortage of the 1st heat shortage time slot | zone. The figure for demonstrating the 1st pick-up after becoming more than a setting maximum heat storage amount in the pick-up in FIG. The flowchart which shows the flow of reduction side correction of a temporary driving pattern. The figure for demonstrating the 1st pick-up of a prediction energy reduction ratio. The figure for demonstrating the 2nd pickup of an estimated energy reduction ratio. The figure for demonstrating the reduction correction with respect to the heat surplus of the 1st heat surplus time slot | zone. The figure for demonstrating the reduction correction with respect to the heat surplus of the 1st heat surplus time slot | zone when the 2nd heat surplus time slot | zone exists. The figure for demonstrating the 1st pick-up with respect to the 2nd heat surplus in case the 2nd heat surplus time slot | zone exists. The figure for demonstrating the last pick-up with respect to the 2nd thermal surplus. The figure for demonstrating the pick-up of the prediction energy reduction ratio when it becomes below a setting minimum heat storage amount during the reduction correction with respect to the heat surplus of the 1st heat surplus time slot | zone. The figure for demonstrating the 1st pick-up after becoming below a setting minimum heat storage amount in the pick-up in FIG. The figure which shows the temporary driving | running | working correction pattern to the 1st heat shortage time slot | zone. The figure which shows the temporary operation energy reduction ratio when performing temporary operation according to a temporary operation correction schedule. The figure which shows the temporary operation correction pattern to the 1st heat surplus time slot | zone. The figure which shows the temporary operation energy reduction ratio when performing temporary operation according to a temporary operation correction schedule. The system block diagram which shows simply the cogeneration system of other embodiment. The block diagram which shows a part of control system of the cogeneration system of FIG. 30 simply. The flowchart which shows the outline | summary of the control by the control system of the cogeneration system of FIG. The figure for demonstrating the thermal radiation amount of the radiator and hot water supply heat amount of a boiler means in other embodiment of FIG. The figure which shows the calculation for calculating | requiring the thermal radiation amount of the radiator of FIG. 33, and the hot water supply heat amount of a boiler means. The flowchart which shows the flow of the increase side correction of the temporary driving pattern in other embodiment. The figure for demonstrating the 1st pick-up of the prediction energy reduction ratio in other embodiment. The figure which shows the various values of the final stage of a pick-up in the case of the estimated heating load ratio set initially. The figure for demonstrating the 1st pick-up of the prediction energy reduction ratio when the prediction heating load ratio is reset. The figure which shows the various values of the last stage of a pick-up in the case of the estimated heating load ratio set 2nd. The figure for demonstrating the pick-up of the prediction energy reduction ratio in the case of resetting the prediction heating load ratio further. The figure for demonstrating the last pick-up with respect to the heat shortage of the 3rd heat shortage time slot | zone. The figure for demonstrating the setting of the energy reduction ratio threshold value when carrying out increase correction of a temporary driving | running pattern. The figure which shows a state when carrying out temporary driving | running | working by the temporary driving | running correction pattern on the increase correction side. The figure for demonstrating the setting of the energy reduction ratio threshold value when carrying out reduction correction of a temporary driving | running pattern. The figure which shows a state when carrying out temporary driving | operation by the temporary driving | operation correction pattern of the reduction | decrease positive side.

Explanation of symbols

2 Cogeneration device 4 Hot water storage device 6 Fuel cell 22 Hot water storage tank 42, 216, 218 Boiler means 50 Heat exchanger 52 Heater means 53 Radiator 70, 70A Control means 72 Predictive power load calculation means 74, 74A Predictive heat load calculation means 76 Temporary Operation pattern setting means 78 Predictive heat output calculation means 80, 80A Predictive hot water storage amount calculation means 82 Correction mode setting means 84 Increase side correction means 86 Decrease side correction means 88 Threshold value calculation setting means 94 Operation mode setting means 96 Current energy reduction Ratio calculation means 100 Operation control means 104 Increase target determination means 106 Increase target value calculation means 112, 132 Temporary operation pattern correction means 124 Reduction target determination means 126 Reduction target value calculation means 232 Predictive heating heat load ratio change means

Claims (29)

In order to collect the heat output from the heat and power cogeneration device and store it as hot water, a cogeneration device that generates electric power and heat, an inverter for connecting the power generated from the cogeneration device to a commercial power supply line Hot water storage device, boiler means for generating hot water, and control means for controlling the operation of the combined heat and power supply device, the control means based on the predicted power load and the predicted heat load in a set time range A cogeneration system for controlling the operation of the cogeneration device,
The control means includes a temporary operation pattern setting means for setting a main operation pattern for controlling the operation of the combined heat and power device so as to cover the predicted power load, and the combined heat and power when the temporary operation is performed according to the temporary operation pattern. Predicted heat output calculating means for calculating the predicted heat output of the apparatus, and predicted hot water storage for calculating the predicted amount of stored hot water stored in the hot water storage device when the thermoelectric supply device is temporarily operated according to the temporary operation pattern Heat storage amount calculation means, increase target value calculation means for calculating a predicted hot water storage heat amount increase target value, temporary operation pattern correction means for correcting the temporary operation pattern, and the predicted hot water storage heat amount set minimum heat storage amount An increase target determining means for determining a heat shortage time zone, an increase target pickup means for picking up the heat shortage time zone, and the heat And increasing the target pickup prohibiting means for prohibiting the pickup foot hours, includes a, an increase correction mode setting means for the predictive heat output setting the increase correction mode for correcting an increase in the cogeneration system,
When the predicted hot water storage amount becomes equal to or lower than the set minimum heat storage amount in the set time range and the increase correction mode is set, the target increase value calculation means calculates the prediction calculated by the predicted hot water storage heat amount calculation means. Based on the hot water storage heat amount and the predicted heat load, the predicted hot water storage heat amount increase target value in the heat shortage time zone in which the shortage of heat occurs in the hot water storage device is calculated, and the increase target pickup means is in the set time range The heat shortage time zone generated at the time is sequentially picked up in order of time, and the temporary operation pattern correction means, the temporary power pattern correction means in the time range before the specific heat shortage time zone picked up by the increase target pickup means The temporary operation pattern is corrected so that the predicted heat output is increased by the predicted hot water storage heat amount increase target value. Positively Saishi, the increased target pickup prohibiting means that prohibits the pickup of the heat shortage time period occurring subsequent to when said predicted hot water storage heat storage amount reaches the set maximum heat storage amount or more within a range the setting time A featured cogeneration system. In order to collect the heat output from the combined heat and power unit and collect the heat generated from the combined heat and power unit, the inverter for connecting the power generated from the combined heat and power unit to the commercial power supply line, and store it as hot water Hot water storage device, boiler means for generating hot water, and control means for controlling the operation of the combined heat and power supply device, the control means based on the predicted power load and the predicted heat load in a set time range A cogeneration system for controlling the operation of the cogeneration device,
The control means includes a temporary operation pattern setting means for setting a main operation pattern for controlling the operation of the combined heat and power device so as to cover the predicted power load, and the combined heat and power when the temporary operation is performed according to the temporary operation pattern. Predicted heat output calculating means for calculating the predicted heat output of the apparatus, and predicted hot water storage for calculating the predicted amount of stored hot water stored in the hot water storage device when the thermoelectric supply device is temporarily operated according to the temporary operation pattern Increases the predicted heat output of the heat storage unit, heat storage amount calculation means, increase target value calculation means for calculating the predicted hot water storage heat increase target value, temporary operation pattern correction means for correcting the temporary operation pattern, and An increase correction mode setting means for setting an increase correction mode to be corrected, wherein the temporary operation pattern correction means includes the unit for operating heat and power It has a predicted energy reduction ratio calculation means for calculating the expected energy savings ratio in specific power output to the power output of the temporary operation pattern,
When the predicted hot water storage amount becomes equal to or lower than the set minimum heat storage amount in the set time range and the increase correction mode is set, the target increase value calculation means calculates the prediction calculated by the predicted hot water storage heat amount calculation means. Based on the stored hot water storage amount and the predicted heat load, the predicted hot water storage heat amount increase target value in a heat shortage time period in which a shortage of heat occurs in the hot water storage device is calculated. In the time range before the time zone, the temporary operation pattern is corrected so that the predicted heat output of the combined heat and power unit increases the predicted hot water storage heat amount increase target value, and when the temporary operation pattern is corrected, the predicted energy reduction The ratio calculating means calculates the predicted energy reduction ratio for a power generation output range larger than the power generation output of the temporary operation pattern. E ne configuration system. The predicted heat output of the combined heat and power unit is a predicted effective hot water storage amount taking into consideration a heat dissipation loss up to the heat shortage time zone, and the predicted energy reduction ratio calculation means generates power in the temporary operation pattern in the increase correction mode. Using the output as the base output, the predicted energy reduction ratio Pp for the specific unit operation time is expressed by the following equation:
Pp = [(Predicted energy reduction when operating the combined heat and power unit when operating the power plant and boiler means at the specific output of the combined heat and power unit)-(Power plant and boiler during the combined output of the combined heat and power unit) Predicted energy savings when operating the combined heat and power unit relative to the operation of the unit)] / [(Predicted effective hot water storage amount at the specific output of the combined heat and power unit)-(Predicted effective hot water storage amount at the base output of the combined heat and power unit) )]
The cogeneration system according to claim 2 , wherein calculation is performed using The temporary operation pattern correction means further includes a predicted energy reduction ratio selection means for picking up the predicted energy reduction ratio in descending order within a positive value range, and temporary operation with a power generation output by the picked up predicted energy reduction ratio. A predicted increased hot water storage heat amount integrating means for integrating the predicted increased hot water heat amount that increases when the predicted energy reduction ratio is calculated, and a predicted energy reduction ratio recalculating means for recalculating the predicted energy reduction ratio, the predicted energy reduction ratio selecting means Picks up the predicted energy reduction ratio until the integrated value by the predicted increased hot water storage heat amount integration means reaches the predicted hot water storage heat amount increase target value, and generates the temporary power output corresponding to the picked up predicted energy reduction ratio. The operation pattern is updated and the predicted energy reduction ratio The calculation means, based on the power generation output of the picked-up predicted energy reduction ratio for a specific time zone including the picked-up predicted energy reduction ratio, calculates the predicted energy for a power generation output range larger than the base power generation output. The cogeneration system according to claim 2 or 3 , wherein a reduction ratio is calculated. The predicted heat output of the combined heat and power unit is a predicted effective hot water storage amount considering heat dissipation loss until the heat shortage time zone, and the heat output of the combined heat and power unit is stored as hot water in the hot water storage unit, and a part thereof The predicted energy reduction ratio calculation means is configured to be used in a heating device, and the predicted energy reduction ratio calculation means uses the power generation output of the temporary operation pattern as a base output in the increase correction mode. Pp is the following formula:
Pp = [(Predicted energy reduction when operating the combined heat and power unit when operating the power plant and boiler means at the specific output of the combined heat and power unit)-(Power plant and boiler during the combined output of the combined heat and power unit) Predicted energy reduction when operating the combined heat and power unit when the unit is operated)] / {[(Predicted effective hot water storage amount at the specific output of the combined heat and power unit) + (The heat output at the specific output of the combined heat and power unit) Of this, the amount of heat used in the heating system)]-[(Estimated effective hot water storage at the base output of the combined heat and power unit) + (The amount of heat used in the heating unit out of the thermal output at the base output of the combined heat and power unit)]}
The cogeneration system according to claim 2 , wherein calculation is performed using The temporary operation pattern correction means further includes a predicted energy reduction ratio selection means for picking up the predicted energy reduction ratio in descending order within a positive value range, and temporary operation with a power generation output by the picked up predicted energy reduction ratio. A predicted increased hot water storage heat amount integrating means for integrating the predicted increased hot water heat amount that increases when the hot water is heated, a predicted energy reduction ratio recalculating means for recalculating the predicted energy reduction ratio, and a load of the predicted heating heat load of the heating device Predictive heating heat load ratio changing means for changing and setting the ratio, wherein the predicted energy reduction ratio selecting means predicts until the integrated value by the predicted increased hot water storage heat amount integration means reaches the predicted hot water storage heat amount increase target value. Pick up the energy reduction ratio and pick up the predicted energy reduction ratio The provisional operation pattern is updated so as to obtain a corresponding power generation output, and the predicted energy reduction ratio recalculation unit calculates the predicted energy reduction ratio that has been picked up for a specific time period including the picked up predicted energy reduction ratio. Based on the power generation output, calculate the predicted energy reduction ratio for a power generation output range larger than the base power generation output, and when the integrated value by the predicted increased hot water storage heat amount integration means does not reach the predicted hot water storage heat amount increase target, The predicted heating / heat load ratio changing means changes the setting of the predicted heating / heat load ratio of the heating device to a small value, and the predicted energy reduction ratio calculating means uses the predicted heating / heat load ratio which has been changed. The energy reduction ratio is calculated and the predicted energy reduction ratio selection means Cogeneration system according to claim 2 or 5, characterized in that up is performed again. The predicted heating heat load ratio changing means changes the setting of the predicted heating heat load ratio in three stages, sets the predicted heating heat load ratio to 100% in the first pickup of the predicted energy reduction ratio, and In the pickup of the predicted energy reduction ratio, the predicted heating heat load ratio is set to 50%, and in the final pickup of the predicted energy reduction ratio, the predicted heating heat load ratio is set to 0%. The cogeneration system according to claim 6 . The predicted hot water storage heat storage quantity calculating means, according to any one of claims 5-7, characterized in that for calculating the predicted hot water storage heat storage amount based on the amount of hot water storage and hot water storage temperature of the was hot water storage in the hot water storage device hot water Cogeneration system. The temporary operation pattern correction means further includes a reduction ratio pickup prohibiting means for prohibiting pickup of the predicted energy reduction ratio, and the predicted hot water storage amount of the predicted hot water storage amount calculation means is greater than or equal to a set maximum heat storage amount. Then, the reduction ratio pickup prohibiting means prohibits the pickup by the predicted energy reduction ratio selecting means, and the predicted energy reduction ratio selecting means is provided after the time zone in which the predicted hot water storage amount is equal to or greater than a set maximum heat storage amount. In the time zone, the predicted energy reduction ratio is picked up until the integrated value by the predicted increased hot water storage heat amount integration means reaches the predicted hot water storage heat amount increase target value, and the power generation output corresponding to the predicted predicted energy reduction ratio is obtained. The temporary operation pattern is updated to reduce the predicted energy The rate recalculation unit is configured to predict the power generation output range larger than the base power generation output based on the power generation output of the picked-up predicted energy reduction ratio for a specific time zone including the picked-up predicted energy reduction ratio. The cogeneration system according to claim 4 or 6 , wherein an energy reduction ratio is calculated. The increase target pick-up means sequentially picks up the heat shortage time zone generated in the set time range in time order, and the predicted hot water storage heat increase target value in the first heat shortage time zone is the prediction The energy reduction ratio calculating means calculates the predicted energy reduction ratio for a power generation output range larger than the power generation output of the temporary operation pattern, and the predicted energy reduction ratio selection means is prior to the first heat shortage time zone. The predicted energy reduction ratio is picked up in a time zone range, the temporary operation pattern is updated for each pickup, and the integrated value by the predicted increased hot water storage heat integration means is the predicted hot water storage heat amount in the first heat shortage time zone. Until the increase target value is reached, the pickup of the predicted energy reduction ratio and the temporary operation pattern The temporary operation pattern when the new is repeatedly performed and the predicted hot water storage heat amount increase target value is reached is corrected as the first temporary operation pattern, and the predicted hot water storage heat amount increase target value in the second heat shortage time zone For the power generation output range larger than the first temporary operation pattern, the predicted energy reduction ratio calculation means calculates the predicted energy reduction ratio based on the power generation output of the first temporary operation pattern, The predicted energy reduction ratio selection means is configured such that the integrated value by the predicted increased hot water storage heat amount integration means increases the predicted hot water storage heat amount during the second heat shortage time zone in a time zone range before the second heat shortage time zone. The predicted energy reduction ratio is picked up until the target value is reached, and the first tentative operation pattern is updated for each pickup to obtain the second tentative operation. As a pattern, in this way, the pickup of the predicted energy reduction ratio and the update of the temporary operation pattern with respect to the predicted hot water storage heat amount increase target value in all the heat shortage time zones up to the nth within the set time range are performed. The cogeneration system according to claim 4, 6 or 9 , wherein the nth provisional operation pattern when all pickups are completed is corrected as the provisional operation correction pattern. The control means further comprises threshold value calculation setting means for calculating and setting an energy reduction ratio threshold value for increasing the output, which serves as a reference value for controlling the operation of the cogeneration apparatus. The threshold value calculation setting means is a temporary operation pattern corrected by the temporary operation pattern correction means for the power generation output of the temporary operation pattern for each unit time zone in a time zone range from the present time to before the first heat shortage time zone. Temporary operation energy reduction ratio calculation means for calculating the temporary operation energy reduction ratio in the power generation output of the operation correction pattern, and the minimum value of the temporary operation energy reduction ratio calculated by the temporary operation energy reduction ratio calculation means for increasing the output claim 4, 6, 9 and 10, characterized in that it contains a threshold setting means for setting the energy reduction ratio threshold Cogeneration system according to any one. The control means further includes an operation mode setting means for setting an operation mode of the combined heat and power supply device, and when the threshold value is set by the threshold value calculation setting means, the operation mode setting means includes: A threshold operation mode for controlling the operation of the combined heat and power supply device using a threshold value is set. When the threshold value is not set, the operation mode setting means is configured to provide the thermoelectric power so as to cover the current power load. The cogeneration system according to claim 11 , wherein an electric main operation mode for controlling the operation of the co-feed device is set. A power generation output larger than the power generation output of the temporary operation pattern set by the temporary operation pattern setting means for all time zones in the time zone range from the current time to before the first heat shortage time zone is the temporary operation. When the correction is set by the pattern correction means, the threshold value calculation setting means sets the threshold value, the operation mode setting means sets the threshold value operation mode, and is the first from the present time. Even though the predicted energy reduction ratio calculated by the predicted energy reduction ratio calculation means includes a positive value for at least one of the time zones in the time zone range before the heat shortage time zone, the temporary operation pattern When the power generation output is set, the threshold calculation setting means does not set the threshold, and the operation mode setting means Cogeneration system according to claim 12, characterized in that setting the primary operating mode. The control means further includes a current energy reduction ratio calculating means for calculating a current current energy reduction ratio, and a power generation output setting means for setting a power generation output of the cogeneration device, and the threshold operation In the mode, the current energy reduction ratio calculation means calculates a current energy reduction ratio in a specific power generation output with respect to a current power generation output of the cogeneration device that covers a current power load, and the power generation output setting means calculates the threshold value. The cogeneration system according to claim 12 or 13 , wherein the maximum power generation output among the power generation outputs corresponding to the current energy reduction ratio exceeding is set as the power generation output of the cogeneration device. When the increase correction mode is set by the increase correction mode setting means, heating is performed in the current operation time zone corresponding to the predicted heating heat load occurrence time zone predicted to generate the predicted heating heat load in the calculation of the predicted heat load. When the device is actuated, in a time zone range corresponding to the predicted heating load generation time zone claim heat generated by the cogeneration device is characterized in that it is used as a heating heat of said heating device 1-14 A cogeneration system according to any of the above. In order to collect the heat output from the heat and power cogeneration device and store it as hot water, a cogeneration device that generates electric power and heat, an inverter for connecting the power generated from the cogeneration device to a commercial power supply line Hot water storage device, boiler means for generating hot water, and control means for controlling the operation of the combined heat and power supply device, the control means based on the predicted power load and the predicted heat load in a set time range A cogeneration system for controlling the operation of the cogeneration device,
The control means includes a temporary operation pattern setting means for setting a main operation pattern for controlling the operation of the combined heat and power device so as to cover the predicted power load, and the combined heat and power when the temporary operation is performed according to the temporary operation pattern. Predicted heat output calculating means for calculating the predicted heat output of the apparatus, and predicted hot water storage for calculating the predicted amount of stored hot water stored in the hot water storage device when the thermoelectric supply device is temporarily operated according to the temporary operation pattern Heat storage amount calculation means, reduction target value calculation means for calculating the predicted hot water storage heat amount reduction target value, temporary operation pattern correction means for correcting the temporary operation pattern, and the predicted hot water storage heat amount is the set maximum heat storage amount a reduction target determining means for determining a heat surplus time period equal to or greater than, the reduction target pickup means for picking up the heat surplus time period, the heat A reduction correction mode setting means for setting a reduction correction mode to reduce correct the predictive heat output of the co-generation unit includes a,
When the predicted hot water storage amount is equal to or greater than the set maximum heat storage amount in the set time range and the reduction correction mode is set, the reduction target value calculation means is calculated by the prediction hot water storage amount calculation means. Based on the stored hot water storage amount and the predicted heat load, the predicted hot water storage heat amount reduction target value of the heat surplus time zone in which the heat storage surplus occurs in the hot water storage device is calculated, and the reduction target pickup means is in the set time range The heat surplus time zone generated at the time is sequentially picked up in order of time, and the temporary operation pattern correcting means is the time range before the specific heat surplus time zone picked up by the reduction target pick-up means in the time range of the cogeneration device The temporary operation pattern is corrected so that the predicted heat output is reduced by the predicted hot water storage heat amount reduction target value. Positively Saishi, the reduction target pickup prohibiting means that prohibits the pickup of the heat surplus time period occurring subsequent to when said predicted hot water storage heat storage amount is below the set minimum amount of stored heat in the range the setting time A featured cogeneration system. In order to collect the heat output from the combined heat and power unit and collect the heat generated from the combined heat and power unit, the inverter for connecting the power generated from the combined heat and power unit to the commercial power supply line, and store it as hot water Hot water storage device, boiler means for generating hot water, and control means for controlling the operation of the combined heat and power supply device, the control means based on the predicted power load and the predicted heat load in a set time range A cogeneration system for controlling the operation of the cogeneration device,
The control means includes a temporary operation pattern setting means for setting a main operation pattern for controlling the operation of the combined heat and power device so as to cover the predicted power load, and the combined heat and power when the temporary operation is performed according to the temporary operation pattern. Predicted heat output calculating means for calculating the predicted heat output of the apparatus, and predicted hot water storage for calculating the predicted amount of stored hot water stored in the hot water storage device when the thermoelectric supply device is temporarily operated according to the temporary operation pattern Reducing the predicted heat output of the heat storage unit, heat reduction calculation means, reduction target value calculation means for calculating the predicted hot water storage heat reduction target value, temporary operation pattern correction means for correcting the temporary operation pattern, and the combined heat and power unit A reduction correction mode setting means for setting a reduction correction mode to be corrected, the temporary operation pattern correction means in front of the combined heat and power unit of unit operation time It has a predicted energy reduction ratio calculation means for calculating a predicted energy reduction ratio in specific power output to power output of the temporary operation pattern,
When the predicted hot water storage amount is equal to or greater than the set maximum heat storage amount in the set time range and the reduction correction mode is set, the reduction target value calculation means is calculated by the prediction hot water storage amount calculation means. Based on the hot water storage heat amount and the predicted heat load, the predicted hot water storage heat amount reduction target value of the heat surplus time zone in which the heat amount surplus occurs in the hot water storage device is calculated, and the temporary operation pattern correction means includes the heat The temporary operation pattern is corrected so that the predicted heat output of the combined heat and power supply device decreases the predicted hot water storage heat amount reduction target value in a time range prior to the surplus time zone, and the predicted energy reduction is performed when the temporary operation pattern is corrected. The calculation means calculates the predicted energy reduction ratio for a power generation output range smaller than the power generation output of the temporary operation pattern. Ne configuration system. The predicted heat output of the combined heat and power unit is a predicted effective radiator heat dissipation amount taking into consideration a heat dissipation loss up to the heat surplus time zone, and the predicted energy reduction ratio calculation means is the temporary operation pattern in the reduction correction mode. Using the power generation output as a base output, the predicted energy reduction ratio Pp for a specific unit operation time is expressed by the following equation:
Pp = [(Estimated energy reduction when operating the combined heat and power unit when the power plant is operated at the specific output of the combined heat and power unit) − (Thermoelectric power when operating the power plant when the combined output of the combined heat and power unit is operated Predicted energy reduction when the cogeneration device is operated)] / [(Estimated effective radiator heat dissipation at the specific output of the cogeneration device)-(Estimated effective radiator heat dissipation at the base output of the cogeneration device)]
The cogeneration system according to claim 17 , wherein calculation is performed using The temporary operation pattern correction means further includes a predicted energy reduction ratio selection means for picking up the predicted energy reduction ratio in order of increasing absolute value in a negative value range, and a power generation output by the picked up predicted energy reduction ratio. Predicted energy reduction ratio recalculation means for recalculating the predicted energy reduction ratio, and a predicted energy reduction ratio recalculation means for recalculating the predicted energy reduction ratio. The ratio selection means picks up the predicted energy reduction ratio until the integrated value obtained by the predicted reduced hot water storage heat amount integration means reaches the predicted hot water storage heat amount reduction target value, so that a power generation output corresponding to the picked up predicted energy reduction ratio is obtained. The temporary driving pattern is updated to The reduction ratio recalculation means is based on the power generation output corresponding to the picked-up predicted energy reduction ratio for a specific time zone including the picked-up predicted energy reduction ratio, and has a power generation output smaller than the base power generation output. The cogeneration system according to claim 17 or 18 , wherein the predicted energy reduction ratio is calculated for a range. The temporary operation pattern correction means further includes a reduction ratio pickup prohibiting means for prohibiting the pickup of the predicted energy reduction ratio, and the predicted hot water storage amount of the predicted hot water storage amount calculation means is less than a set minimum heat storage amount. Then, the reduction ratio pickup prohibiting means prohibits the pickup by the predicted energy reduction ratio selecting means, and the predicted energy reduction ratio selecting means is arranged after the time period when the predicted hot water storage amount is equal to or less than the set minimum heat storage amount. In the time zone, the predicted energy reduction ratio is picked up until the integrated value by the predicted reduced hot water storage amount integration means reaches the predicted hot water storage amount reduction target value, and the power generation output corresponding to the predicted predicted energy reduction ratio is obtained. The temporary operation pattern is updated so that the predicted energy The reduction ratio re-calculation means is configured to generate power smaller than a predicted power generation output as a base based on a power generation output corresponding to the picked-up predicted energy reduction ratio for a specific time zone including the picked-up predicted energy reduction ratio. The cogeneration system according to claim 19 , wherein the predicted energy reduction ratio is calculated for an output range. The reduction target pickup means sequentially picks up the heat surplus time zone generated in the set time range in order of time, and for the predicted hot water storage heat amount reduction target value of the first heat surplus time zone, the prediction The energy reduction ratio calculating means calculates the predicted energy reduction ratio for a power generation output range smaller than the power generation output of the temporary operation pattern, and the predicted energy reduction ratio selection means is prior to the first heat surplus time zone. The predicted energy reduction ratio is picked up in a time zone range, the first temporary operation pattern is updated for each pickup, and the integrated value by the predicted reduced hot water storage heat amount integration means is the prediction of the first heat surplus time zone. Until the hot water storage heat amount reduction target value is reached, the pickup of the predicted energy reduction ratio and the temporary operation pattern Update is repeatedly performed, the temporary operation pattern when the predicted hot water storage heat amount reduction target value is reached is corrected as the first temporary operation pattern, and the predicted hot water storage heat amount reduction target in the second heat surplus time zone For the value, for the power generation output range smaller than the first temporary operation pattern, the predicted energy reduction ratio is calculated based on the power generation output of the first temporary operation pattern, and the predicted energy reduction ratio selection means includes: The predicted energy until an integrated value by the predicted reduction hot water storage heat amount integration means reaches the predicted hot water storage heat reduction target value of the second heat surplus time zone in a time zone range before the second heat surplus time zone. The reduction ratio is picked up and the first temporary operation pattern is updated and corrected as the second temporary operation pattern for each pickup. Then, the pickup of the predicted energy reduction ratio with respect to the predicted hot water storage heat reduction target value of all the nth heat surplus time zones within the set time range and the update of the temporary operation pattern are performed, and all pickups are completed. The cogeneration system according to claim 19 or 20 , wherein the nth provisional operation pattern is corrected as the provisional operation correction pattern. The control means further includes threshold value calculation setting means for calculating and setting an energy reduction ratio threshold value for an output serving as a reference value when controlling the operation of the cogeneration apparatus. The value calculation setting means is a temporary operation correction corrected by the temporary operation pattern correction means for the power generation output of the temporary operation pattern for each unit time zone in a time range from the present time to before the first heat surplus time zone. Temporary operation energy reduction ratio calculation means for calculating the temporary operation energy reduction ratio in the power generation output of the pattern, and the minimum value of the absolute value of the temporary operation energy reduction ratio calculated by the temporary operation energy reduction ratio calculation means claim 19-21 noises, characterized in that it contains a threshold setting means for setting the energy reduction ratio threshold for Cogeneration system of crab described. The control means further includes an operation mode setting means for setting an operation mode of the combined heat and power supply device, and when the threshold value is set by the threshold value calculation setting means, the operation mode setting means includes: A threshold operation mode for controlling the operation of the combined heat and power supply device using a threshold value is set. When the threshold value is not set, the operation mode setting means is configured to provide the thermoelectric power so as to cover the current power load. The cogeneration system according to claim 22 , wherein an electric main operation mode for controlling the operation of the co-feed device is set. The power generation output smaller than the power generation output of the temporary operation pattern set by the temporary operation pattern setting means for all the time zones in the time zone range from the present time to the first heat surplus time zone is the temporary operation. When the correction is set by the pattern correction means, the threshold value calculation setting means sets the threshold value, the operation mode setting means sets the threshold value operation mode, and is the first from the present time. Even though the predicted energy reduction ratio calculated by the predicted energy reduction ratio calculation means includes a negative value for at least one of the time zones in the time zone range before the heat surplus time zone, the temporary operation pattern When the power generation output is set, the threshold calculation setting means does not set the threshold, and the operation mode setting means Cogeneration system according to claim 23, characterized in that setting the primary operating mode. The control means further includes a current energy reduction ratio calculating means for calculating a current current energy reduction ratio, and a power generation output setting means for setting a power generation output of the cogeneration device, and the threshold operation In the mode, the current energy reduction ratio calculation means calculates a current energy reduction ratio in a specific power generation output with respect to a current power generation output of the cogeneration device that covers a current power load, and the power generation output setting means calculates the threshold value. The cogeneration system according to claim 23 or 24 , wherein a minimum power generation output among power generation outputs corresponding to the current energy reduction ratio exceeding an absolute value is set as a power generation output of the cogeneration device. When the reduction correction mode is set by the reduction correction mode setting means, when the heating device operates in the current operating time zone, the heat generated in the combined heat and power device is used as the heating heat of the heating device. The cogeneration system according to any one of claims 16 to 25 , wherein In connection with the hot water storage device, a hot water empty detection sensor for detecting that hot water in the hot water storage device has run out is provided, and when the hot water empty detection sensor performs empty detection during hot water supply by the hot water storage device, cogeneration system according to any one of claims 1,2,16 and 17, wherein the control means generates a boiler operation signal, the boiler unit on the basis of the boiler operation signal, characterized in that it is actuated. In order to collect the heat output from the heat and power cogeneration device and store it as hot water, a cogeneration device that generates electric power and heat, an inverter for connecting the power generated from the cogeneration device to a commercial power supply line Hot water storage device, boiler means for generating hot water, and control means for controlling the operation of the combined heat and power supply device, the control means based on the predicted power load and the predicted heat load in a set time range A cogeneration system for controlling the operation of the cogeneration device,
The control means includes a temporary operation pattern setting means for setting a main operation pattern for controlling the operation of the combined heat and power device so as to cover the predicted power load, and the combined heat and power when the temporary operation is performed according to the temporary operation pattern. Predicted heat output calculating means for calculating the predicted heat output of the apparatus, and predicted hot water storage for calculating the predicted amount of stored hot water stored in the hot water storage device when the thermoelectric supply device is temporarily operated according to the temporary operation pattern Heat storage amount calculation means, and correction mode setting means for setting a correction mode for correcting the predicted heat output of the combined heat and power supply device, wherein the correction mode setting means is calculated by the predicted hot water storage heat amount calculation means. In addition, when the predicted hot water storage amount becomes equal to or less than the set minimum heat storage amount in the set time range, an increase correction mode for increasing and correcting the predicted heat output of the combined heat and power supply device. Set, also set reduction correction mode in which the predicted hot water storage heat storage amount is reduced modify the predicted thermal power of the set time greater than or equal to the specified maximum heat storage amount in the range and the cogeneration device,
Further, in relation to the hot water storage device, a hot water empty detection sensor for detecting that hot water in the hot water storage device is exhausted is provided, and when the hot water empty detection sensor performs empty detection during hot water supply by the hot water storage device, The control means generates a boiler operation signal, and the boiler means is operated based on the boiler operation signal . The combined heat and power supply device and the hot water storage device are connected via a circulation channel, and water flowing out from the bottom of the hot water storage device flows into the upper part of the hot water storage device through the circulation channel and the combined heat and power supply device, and the hot water storage device In the apparatus, hot water is stored in layers so that hot water is on the upper side and water is on the lower side. A heating passage is provided in the bypass passage via a heat exchanger, a heating device is provided in the heating circulation passage, and the boiler means is disposed in the hot water supply passage. The first boiler means for warming the water flowing through the hot water supply flow path, and the second boiler means for heating the water flowing through the heating flow path that is disposed in the heating flow path. claim and 1,2,1 , Cogeneration system according to any one of 17 and 28.

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