JP2018147234A - Maintenance plan creation device and method - Google Patents

Abstract

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide a maintenance plan creation device and method that can create a maintenance plan in a more appropriate manner by delivering the risk evaluation in a more precise manner through taking the condition of a facility having a connection relationship into account.SOLUTION: A maintenance plan creation device 1 comprises: a condition information acquisition part 5 for acquiring each of condition information of a plurality of supply facilities connected to a consumer's facility; a facility information storage part 3 for storing connection information representing the connection relationship between the consumer's facility and each of the supply facilities, and the maintenance prioritizing values of each of the supply facilities; a maintenance prioritizing value calculation part 6 for, when the condition information of a first supply facility from the plurality of supply facilities is the information of deterioration that indicates the deterioration of the first supply facility, specifying, from the connection information, a second supply facility having the connection relationship with the first supply facility through the consumer's facility, and for, when the second supply facility becomes an alternative supply facility of the consumer's facility, increasing the maintenance prioritizing value of the second supply facility; and a maintenance plan creation part 7 for creating, based on the maintenance prioritizing values for each of the supply facilities, a maintenance plan to decide for which supply facility and at what timing it carries out the maintenance.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 1

Description

  The present invention relates to a technique for creating a maintenance plan.

  Conventionally, in order to perform maintenance management (including updating of equipment etc.) in equipment such as electric power equipment, it is common to create and manage a maintenance plan. As a method for creating the maintenance plan, there are a method of regularly performing maintenance, a method of monitoring the state of the equipment and determining the maintenance time according to the state of the equipment.

  Further, when maintaining a plurality of facilities, if the maintenance of a plurality of facilities is performed at the same time, maintenance costs are increased at the same time, and a large amount of expenses are required at the same time. Therefore, there is a desire to shift the maintenance time of each equipment so that the times do not overlap. In such a case, it is common to adjust the maintenance plan by judging how much of the equipment should be shifted in maintenance time based on the risk of failure.

  As a mechanism for evaluating a risk such as a maintenance priority value, Cited Document 1 discloses that the risk is evaluated in consideration of the likelihood of failure for power distribution equipment and the magnitude of the effect when the failure occurs. Has been.

JP 2006-343974 A

  The conventional equipment risk assessment is to assess the risk of a specific equipment, and does not consider the state of other connected equipment, and it is not always possible to create an appropriate maintenance plan. I can't say that. An object of the present invention is to make the risk assessment more accurate and to create a more appropriate maintenance plan by taking into account the state of the connected facilities.

  In order to solve the above problems, the present invention provides a state information acquisition unit that acquires state information representing the state of each supply facility among a plurality of supply facilities connected to the customer facility, A facility information storage unit that stores connection information representing connection relations with supply facilities and maintenance priority values of the respective supply facilities, and calculates the maintenance priority value of each of the supply facilities from a failure rate, and a plurality of supplies When the status information of the first supply facility among the facilities is deterioration information indicating the deterioration of the first supply facility, the connection information of the second supply facility connected to the first supply facility through the customer facility Based on the maintenance priority value calculation unit that increases the maintenance priority value of the second supply facility and the maintenance priority value for each supply facility when the second supply facility is an alternative supply facility for the customer facility Which supply equipment when In it characterized in that it comprises a maintenance plan creation unit that creates a maintenance plan to decide whether to maintain.

According to the present invention, it is possible to create a more accurate maintenance plan that takes into account the influence of the connected facilities.

It is a block diagram of the maintenance plan preparation apparatus in Embodiment 1 of this invention. It is an example of the failure model which the failure model acquisition part in Embodiment 1 of this invention acquires. It is an example of correction | amendment of the failure rate in Embodiment 1 of this invention. It is an example of the power system diagram for demonstrating the example of the reevaluation method of the maintenance priority value of the alternative power equipment in Embodiment 1 of this invention. It is a figure showing before the update review of the example of the maintenance plan preparation method by a maintenance plan preparation part. It is a figure showing after the update review of the example of the maintenance plan preparation method by a maintenance plan preparation part. It is a figure showing the risk by the update deferral of the example of the maintenance plan preparation method by the maintenance plan preparation part. It is a flowchart which shows the reevaluation method of the maintenance priority value of an alternative power equipment by the maintenance priority value calculation part in Embodiment 1 of this invention. It is an example which shows the maintenance priority value increase of the transformer A1 when the maintenance time of the transformer B2 in Embodiment 1 of this invention is overdue. It is an example which shows the maintenance priority value increase of the transformer A1 when the maintenance time of the transformer B2 in Embodiment 1 of this invention is overdue. It is a hardware block diagram which shows the maintenance plan preparation apparatus by Embodiment 1 of this invention. It is a block diagram of the maintenance plan preparation apparatus in Embodiment 2 of this invention. It is an example of the power system diagram for demonstrating the example of the calculation method of the importance of the installation in Embodiment 2 of this invention. It is a block diagram of the maintenance plan preparation apparatus in Embodiment 3 of this invention. It is an example of a prediction of the sensor output which is a simulation result by the degradation degree simulation part in Embodiment 3 of this invention. It is an example of the maintenance priority value calculation method by the maintenance priority value calculation part in Embodiment 3 of this invention.

  Hereinafter, a preferred embodiment of a maintenance plan creation apparatus of the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings. In the drawings, the same reference numerals indicate the same or corresponding parts.

Embodiment 1 FIG.
FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing a maintenance plan creation apparatus 1 according to Embodiment 1 of the present invention. The maintenance plan creation device 1 includes a cost information storage unit 2, an equipment information storage unit 3, a failure model acquisition unit 4, a state information acquisition unit 5, a maintenance priority value calculation unit 6, a maintenance plan creation unit 7, And an input / output unit 8.

First, an outline of each component will be described. The state information acquisition unit 5 acquires state information such as sensing information indicating an operation state and an operation state of equipment obtained from a sensor or the like attached to the power equipment that is a maintenance target, and information indicating the state of the power equipment. Sensing information indicating the operating state and operating state of the power equipment includes operating time, the number of operations, temperature, pressure, partial discharge indicating the insulating state of the electrical equipment, gas pressure, and the like.

The state information is the above-mentioned sensing information or information indicating the state of the equipment. If the threshold of the sensing information is above or below a certain value, or if the information indicating the state of the equipment is information indicating the deterioration state, the equipment Judge that it has deteriorated. Information indicating such deterioration of the equipment is collectively referred to as deterioration information. When the state information is deterioration information, it is determined that the equipment has deteriorated. The deterioration information is a concept including information indicating that the maintenance period of the power equipment has passed. Whether the maintenance time has passed may be specified from the fact that a predetermined initial maintenance time has passed, or may be specified from flag information indicating that the maintenance time has passed, The specific method is not limited.

Not only the maintenance time has passed, but the maintenance time has passed, the frequency of minor abnormalities increases, the sensor value is close to the abnormal range, the frequency exceeding the abnormal range is high, cracks, rust, etc. You may make it determine the state which shows deterioration taking into consideration together information, such as a big change of the appearance which may reduce the function of an apparatus.

Delaying maintenance time means that maintenance is delayed from the planned maintenance time, for example, the time recommended by the manufacturer of the power equipment or the maintenance time set by the maintenance standards set by the operator or organization. It means maintenance. Here, the maintenance time refers to a predetermined initial maintenance time. When the maintenance time is delayed, actual maintenance is performed at a time delayed from the maintenance time. Here, the power equipment means equipment related to power transmission to customer equipment such as power transmission / transformation equipment and power distribution equipment.

For example, equipment such as transformers and circuit breakers in power plants and substations may be used, or power plants and substations themselves may be mentioned. The scale and type of equipment are not limited as long as the equipment is a maintenance target. . In the present embodiment, the power facility is used, but it may be a water supply facility, and is not specified if it is connected to other facilities related to supply to consumers and has an alternative supply facility. The equipment is not limited and may simply be a supply equipment. In addition, the customer facility referred to here is a facility for receiving power transmitted by the customer, and maintenance is a concept including an update for replacing the power facility itself.

In the present embodiment, an example of power equipment is described. However, the present invention is not limited to this, and water supply equipment may be used. Any equipment can be used as long as there is an alternative equipment. The equipment here is described as power equipment in order to supply resources such as electric power and water to consumers, but may be read as the above-mentioned supply equipment without limitation, or may be simply equipment.

The cost information storage unit 2 stores information related to costs required for maintenance of the power equipment. Costs required for maintenance include power equipment costs, inspection costs, repair costs, operation costs, replacement costs, construction costs, maintenance costs including these costs, and the like. Further, it may include a cost that is incurred when it stops due to a failure, for example, a compensation cost, a rental cost of a substitute product, and the like.

The facility information storage unit 3 stores power facility information including at least the power facility specifications and the connection relationship between the power facilities and the customer facilities. The power equipment specification is attribute information used for a model for obtaining a maintenance priority value, such as the number of years since installation or manufacturing, the type of power equipment, and the model. The maintenance priority value is an index that indicates the degree to which maintenance is required for the power facility. It indicates the likelihood of failure by multiplying the failure rate by a factor, and the impact on the surroundings when failure occurs and failure occurs. Although the thing etc. which multiplied the degree can be considered, details are mentioned later. The maintenance priority value of each power facility is also stored in the facility information storage unit. A method for calculating the maintenance priority value will be described later.

The failure model acquisition unit 4 acquires a basic failure model for each power equipment specification. The maintenance priority value calculation unit 6 calculates the failure rate from the failure model using the sensing information acquired by the state information acquisition unit 5, and further, between the power facilities and the customer facility stored in the facility information storage unit 3. Using the connection information, a maintenance priority value that is a risk that the function of the power facility stops is calculated. The calculated maintenance priority value is stored in the facility information storage unit. In the present embodiment, the maintenance priority value is calculated from the failure rate calculated from the failure model, and the maintenance priority value of each of the supply facilities is calculated, and the maintenance priority value is considered in consideration of the deterioration information of the facilities and the connection information between the facilities. Reassess. The method of calculating the maintenance priority value is not limited to this, and the maintenance priority value may be stored in advance. The maintenance priority value represents a priority value from which equipment should be maintained. The higher the failure rate, the more the equipment needs to be maintained.

FIG. 2 is an example of the failure rate calculated from the failure model acquired by the failure model acquisition unit 4. For example, suppose that the failure model of the transformer with respect to the number of years t since the installation of the power equipment is a failure rate according to the Weibull distribution as shown in Equation 1. m is a shape parameter of the Weibull distribution, η is a scale parameter of the Weibull distribution, and γ is a position parameter of the Weibull distribution. Assuming that the Weibull parameters of this transformer are m = 2.8931, η = 40.12, and γ = 0, the failure rate with respect to the elapsed years is as shown in FIG.

At this time, for example, the sensor senses the gas generation amount as sensing information, and the sensor determines the gas generation amount in four stages of “no abnormality”, “caution 1”, “caution 2”, and “abnormal”. Suppose you are. When the failure rate in FIG. 2 is a failure rate in the case of “no abnormality”, for example, a coefficient a (a ≧ 1) is defined according to the determination result, and a × F (t) is maintained for this transformer. Calculated as a priority value. In addition, the trend of increasing gas generation with respect to the number of years elapsed is known, and the current number of years elapsed with respect to the number of years elapsed on the failure model (the actual number of years elapsed corresponding to the amount of gas generation) has been advanced by five years. In this case, γ = 5 and the value obtained by Equation 2 may be used as the failure rate of this transformer.

  FIG. 3 is an example of correction of the failure rate in Embodiment 1 of the present invention. FIG. 3 shows a failure model when it is determined that the deterioration state has progressed for five years based on the acquired failure model and the sensor information described above. When the power facility is in a state of deterioration as shown in FIG. 3, the maintenance plan creation device corrects the failure model, re-evaluates the maintenance priority value of the power facility, and can be connected through a specific customer facility. Reassess the maintenance priority of alternative power facilities. In this case, the evaluation is performed again based on the corrected failure model. However, the present invention is not limited to this. Any method may be used as long as the maintenance priority value may be corrected directly or the maintenance priority value may be increased. Details of the correction of the maintenance priority value will be described later.

  In addition, here, the alternative power equipment refers to power equipment that transmits power when the other power equipment connected to the customer equipment cannot supply power to the consumer, but is limited to this. It does not mean that any facility can be used instead of supplying a specific facility when it becomes impossible to supply to the customer, or simply an alternative supply facility or a supply facility. Thereafter, the alternative power equipment may be read as alternative supply equipment or alternative equipment.

  As described above, whether the deterioration state is progressing may be determined using the sensor information, or when the predetermined initial maintenance time of the power equipment is delayed, It may be determined, and the determination method is not limited. Here, the state indicating deterioration refers to a case where the failure rate is higher than the failure rate based on the original failure model of the power equipment, or a case where the maintenance time of the power equipment is delayed. Information indicating a state indicating this deterioration is referred to as deterioration information. As described above, the delay in maintenance time means that, for example, the maintenance time recommended by the manufacturer, the maintenance plan according to the maintenance standards set by the business operator or the organization is delayed, or the replacement timing of the power equipment is delayed.

  FIG. 4 is an example of a power system diagram for explaining an example of a method for re-evaluating the maintenance priority value of an alternative power facility. The maintenance priority value of power facilities that have deteriorated due to a delay in maintenance time is corrected, and the power facilities are connected through a specific customer facility. In this case, the maintenance priority value of the alternative power facility is also corrected. In FIG. 4, the substation is connected to the customer facility that is the facility of each customer through the transformer and circuit breaker that are the transmission and transformation facilities, and transmits power to each customer facility. The customer facility 3 is connected to both the A substation and the B substation. Here, the connection relationship includes a state in which the customer facility has a circuit breaker or the like and can be connected to the power facility, and includes a state in which the customer facility does not need to be in an energized state and is not physically connected by a switch or the like.

  In the power system as shown in FIG. 4, when the transformer B1 breaks down, the customer facility 3 is also connected to the A substation. For example, the power transmission system switches the circuit breakers a and b to supply power from the A substation. It is possible to supply. The power supply to the customer facilities 1 and 2 is only from 60 kVA of the transformer B2, and the amount of power that can be supplied from the B substation is less than the amount of power 70 kVA required by the customer facilities 1 and 2, resulting in insufficient supply. On the other hand, when the transformer B2 breaks down, the customer facility 3 switches the circuit breakers a and b to supply power from the A substation, and the transformer B1 has 80 kVA, so that the capacity available for the B substation is The electric power supply exceeds the electric power amount 70 kVA required for 1 and 2 and is continued. Although the power supply is continued, there is a possibility that the load on the transformer B1 increases or that the transformer B1 also breaks down (N-2 failure) and the supply to the customer facilities 1 and 2 is stopped.

  In this way, the possibility of continuation of power supply when a power facility breaks down is evaluated, for example, depending on the number of customer facilities whose supply is stopped, the amount of supply shortage, the time and cost required for recovery A degree of influence is defined, and a value obtained by multiplying the failure rate by the degree of influence is calculated as a maintenance priority value. In this way, the maintenance priority value calculation unit 6 calculates the maintenance priority value for the elapsed years including the future risk using the failure model and the state information. The maintenance plan creation unit 7 creates a maintenance plan in consideration of maintenance priority values and costs.

  In the present embodiment, the amount of power that can be supplied and the amount of power that is required for the power facility are used. However, the present invention is not limited to this. The amount of power that can be supplied and the amount of power that is required refer to the amount that can be supplied and the amount of demand, respectively. The suppliable power amount may be read as the suppliable amount, and the required power amount may be read as the demand amount.

FIG. 5 is a diagram showing an example of a maintenance plan creation method by the maintenance plan creation unit 7 before an update review. For example, if the maintenance plan is formulated according to the maintenance period recommended by the manufacturer, the relationship between the renewal cost and the renewal year is as shown in FIG. If equipment maintenance is performed in this way, huge costs are incurred in the 6th, 9th and 10th years. Concentrating costs in such a specific year is not desirable because it is difficult to secure a budget.

FIG. 6 is a diagram showing an example of a maintenance plan creation method performed by the maintenance plan creation unit 7 after an update review. In the case as shown in FIG. 5, it is not desirable. Therefore, for the purpose of leveling the maintenance cost for each fiscal year, the maintenance plan creation unit 7 defers the maintenance period of the power equipment, and the equipment 1 is installed as shown in FIG. 3 years, 2 years for equipment 2 and 1 year for equipment 3, delay the maintenance period. When to maintain each power facility is determined based on the maintenance cost and the maintenance priority value of each power facility.

  FIG. 7 is a diagram showing a risk due to deferred updating of an example of a maintenance plan creation method by the maintenance plan creation unit 7. By delaying the maintenance period, the failure rate increases and the maintenance priority value increases as the number of elapsed years increases as shown in FIG. 2, so that the maintenance priority value does not exceed a predetermined upper limit as shown in FIG. 7, for example. Establish a maintenance plan. In FIG. 7, a maintenance plan is formulated so as not to exceed the upper limit of the maintenance priority value. Next, a maintenance plan creation method of the maintenance plan creation unit 7 for the purpose of leveling maintenance costs every year will be described. A maintenance plan can be obtained by finding a solution to the optimization problem expressed by the following equations 3 to 9.

  In this embodiment, leveling is performed by solving an optimization problem with the objective variable being the minimization of the difference between the maximum value and the minimum value of annual maintenance costs as follows. Alternatively, the annual maintenance cost may be distributed (square error with the average annual maintenance cost) or the standard deviation may be minimized. Also, optimization by solving a constraint satisfaction problem instead of such an optimization problem is also possible. Furthermore, an update plan that takes into account the extension of the life of the equipment is possible by adding a constraint condition that the update time before reviewing the update time and the update time of the original update plan are made as large as possible.

The optimization problem expressed by Equations (3) to (9) requires when to maintain the power equipment e during the period from the first year of en1 to the second year of en2, while keeping the maintenance priority value within an allowable range, Variation in maintenance costs, that is, the difference between the maximum value and the minimum value of annual maintenance costs is minimized. N is the planned years of the maintenance plan. Here, optimization means that if the maintenance of electric power facilities is concentrated too much at a certain time, it costs a lot of money at once. That means.

M represents the number of power facilities. L is a set value representing the upper limit of annual maintenance costs, and is set by the user based on budget constraints. K is a setting value indicating the upper limit of the maintenance priority value, and the user sets an allowable maintenance priority value. U (e, y) is a variable having a value of 0 or 1 indicating whether or not the power equipment e is to be maintained in year y, and 0 indicates that maintenance is not performed, and 1 indicates that maintenance is performed. C (e, y) is a variable representing a maintenance cost when the power equipment e is maintained in the y-year, and is input in advance by the user. R (e, y) is a variable representing the maintenance priority value in the y-year of the power equipment e, and is the maintenance priority value obtained by the maintenance priority value calculation unit 6. u is the maximum value of the maintenance cost for each year during the period, and v is the minimum value of the maintenance cost for each year during the period (u and v are positive values).

Equation 3 is the objective function of the optimization problem, and minimizes the difference between the maximum value and the minimum value of annual maintenance costs. Equation 4 is a constraint condition that the maintenance cost of each year of the 1st to Nth years is L or less. Formula 5 represents that maintenance is performed only once during the period of en1 to en2 for all power facilities. en1 and en2 take values from 1 to N. Equation 6 indicates that U (e, y) takes a value of 0 or 1. Equation 7 represents that the maximum annual maintenance cost is u. Equation 8 indicates that the minimum value of the annual maintenance cost is v. Equation 9 is a constraint condition indicating that the maintenance priority value of each power facility is K or less.

As a result of the output from the maintenance plan creation unit 7, when there is a power facility whose maintenance time is significantly later than the original maintenance plan, the maintenance priority value for the power facility whose maintenance time is delayed increases. When a power facility whose maintenance time is delayed breaks down, the load of another power facility that operates in place of the power facility increases. Therefore, the maintenance priority value calculation unit 6 performs maintenance of the alternative power facility. Re-evaluate priority values.

  FIG. 8 is a flowchart showing a method for re-evaluating the maintenance priority value of the alternative power facility by the maintenance priority value calculation unit 6. A method for re-evaluating the maintenance priority value of the alternative power facility will be described with reference to this flowchart. First, the deterioration state of the first power facility is determined, and it is determined whether or not it is necessary to re-evaluate the maintenance priority value of the first power facility (step S70). Here, the first power facility refers to a specific power facility, the deterioration state is sequentially determined, and the power facility in a state in which the deterioration state has progressed is defined as the first power facility.

  As described above, the state in which the deterioration has progressed refers to a case where the deterioration has progressed and the maintenance priority value needs to be re-evaluated. The determination of whether the deterioration state is progressing may be made using the sensor information as described above, or may be determined that the deterioration state is progressing when the maintenance time of the power equipment is late. The method of determination is not limited. For example, if there is a power facility whose maintenance time is later than the original maintenance plan due to a change in the maintenance plan, that is, if the acquired status information indicates information that the maintenance time of the power facility is late, the maintenance priority value It is determined that there is a need for re-evaluation.

  When the deterioration state is advanced, that is, when the state information is deterioration information, the maintenance priority value of the first power facility is re-evaluated (step S71). Here, re-evaluation means correcting the maintenance priority value. Reevaluation is performed when the deterioration state is advanced, for example, when the maintenance time is delayed. As the deterioration of power equipment further progresses, the probability of failure increases, so it is necessary to estimate the maintenance priority value larger. Further, when the maintenance time is later than the original maintenance plan, the deterioration progresses and the probability of failure increases.

  Moreover, it is determined that the reevaluation is necessary not only when the deterioration state is advanced, but also when the deterioration state is advanced and the degree of influence is larger. For example, if there is a power facility where the maintenance priority value of the first power facility is high and the difference from the allowable maintenance priority value is less than a certain value, the contract power of the customer facility that is the supply destination of the power facility is large When there is an increased risk of failure of power equipment, such as water and sewage systems or hospitals, or when it is assumed that there will be a large impact on customer equipment when the power equipment fails In addition, the maintenance priority value calculation unit 6 determines that the maintenance priority value of the first power facility needs to be re-evaluated. Electric power equipment whose difference from the allowable maintenance priority value is less than a certain value has a small margin of maintenance priority value, and there is a high possibility that the load of other electric power equipment that operates in place of the electric power equipment will increase. It is determined that re-evaluation is necessary.

Next, the maintenance priority value calculation unit 6 uses the connection information between the power facilities and the customer facility stored in the facility information storage unit 3 for the power facility that requires the reevaluation of the maintenance priority value. A power facility substituting for the first power facility is searched (step S72). Specifically, the maintenance priority value calculation unit 6 identifies whether or not the first power facility can be connected through a specific consumer facility from the connection information, and the identified second power facility is the specific consumer. It is further specified whether or not the power facility is an alternative power facility that can transmit power to the facility.

  If the supply capacity of the customer equipment does not fall below the demand required by the customer equipment when the power equipment breaks down, install a power equipment other than the failed power equipment connected to the customer equipment. Not specified as an alternative power facility. For example, if the power facility is one of a plurality of transformers in a substation, the supplyable amount, which is the amount of power that can be supplied by the substation, is reduced by the failure of the transformer, and the supplyable amount of the substation is reduced. It may be less than the demand. Even if the substation's supply capacity decreases, it may not fall below the demand amount. In such a case, even if the power facility fails, it does not increase the burden on the connected power facility. Not specified as power equipment.

And the maintenance priority value calculation part 6 calculates the increase load of an alternative power equipment (step S73). For example, if the first power facility fails during the extended maintenance period, the increased load is estimated by estimating the increase in the operation time, the number of operations, and the amount of processing of the alternative power facility. calculate. Then, the maintenance priority value calculation unit 6 increases the maintenance priority value of the alternative power facility based on the increased load of the alternative power facility (step S74). The method of increasing the maintenance priority value is a method of multiplying the failure rate by a constant (a times) as shown in Equation 10 or a failure rate calculated assuming that the deterioration has progressed by b years as shown in Equation 11, and based on that There are methods to evaluate maintenance priority values.

For example, taking the power system of FIG. 4 as an example, a method for re-evaluating the maintenance priority value of the alternative power facility will be specifically described. The A substation has transformers A1 and A2, and supplies power to the customer equipment 4 and the customer equipment 5. The B substation has transformers B1 and B2, and the customer equipment 1 and the customer. Electric power is supplied to the facility 2 and the customer facility 3. The customer facility 3 can supply power from the substation A by opening the circuit breaker a, closing the circuit breaker b, or closing both circuit breakers a and b. Information on the connection between the power facilities including the information on the power facilities such as substations, transformers and circuit breakers and the information on the supply to the customer facilities and the information on the customer facilities is obtained from the facility information storage unit 3.

FIG. 9 is an example showing an increase in the maintenance priority value of the transformer A1 when the maintenance time of the transformer B2 has passed. In such an electric power system, it is assumed that the maintenance plan creation unit 7 outputs a plan in which the maintenance time of the transformer B2 scheduled to be maintained in 2021 in the original maintenance plan is set to 2024. At this time, for the three years from 2021 to 2023, the maintenance priority value of the transformer B2 becomes high, and the circuit breaker a and the circuit breaker b are switched to supply power to the customer facility 3 from the A substation. There is a high possibility that it will not be.

Furthermore, the contracted capacity of the customer facility 3 is 60 kW, which is larger than that of other customer facilities, and has a large impact on the customer facility when the transformer B2 breaks down. There is a need to. Although the degree of influence of customer facilities is also considered here, the present invention is not limited to this, and the maintenance priority value may be re-evaluated only when the maintenance time is delayed. In addition, not only when the maintenance time is delayed, but also if the power equipment has a factor that increases the risk of failure, the maintenance priority value is re-evaluated.

At this time, the increase load of transformer A1 of A substation is 60 kW between 2021 and 2023. Next, based on the increased load of 60 kW, the maintenance priority value from 2021 to 2023 is re-evaluated, and the maintenance priority value 81 is increased from the maintenance priority value 82 as shown in FIG. If there is no failure of the transformer B2 during this period and maintenance is performed and power can be supplied from the B substation to the customer facility 3, the maintenance priority value calculation unit 6 The maintenance priority value 82 of the device A1 is returned to the original maintenance priority value 81. That is, the maintenance priority value calculation unit 6 increases the maintenance priority value of A1 that is an alternative power transmission facility while the maintenance time of the transformer B2 of the power transmission facility has passed. Here, the maintenance time has passed. However, the present invention is not limited to this, and the maintenance priority value may be increased during a state indicating deterioration.

  FIG. 10 is another example showing an increase in the maintenance priority value of the transformer A1 when the maintenance time of the transformer B2 is delayed. Once the operation is performed, in a power facility in which the maintenance priority value increases and does not return to the original value, the maintenance priority value 91 in the original maintenance plan is changed from the maintenance priority value 91 to the maintenance priority value 92 as shown in FIG. The maintenance priority value 92 is maintained even after the maintenance of the transformer B2 is completed.

Here, an example in which the maintenance priority value of the transformer A1 is increased as an alternative power facility for the transformer B2, but the maintenance priority value of the transformer A2 is increased in the same manner, or as an alternative power facility for the transformer B1. It is also conceivable to increase the maintenance priority value of the transformers A1 and A2.

The input / output unit 8 accepts input of information to be input by the user to the maintenance plan creation unit, such as L, K, and C (e, y) in Equations 4 to 9, and information on the maintenance plan Is output. It also accepts changes in maintenance plans from users. When the user requests a change of the maintenance plan, the maintenance plan is drawn up again. If the maintenance priority value re-evaluation is necessary based on the result, steps S71 to S74 are repeatedly executed.

The maintenance plan creation device having such a configuration is an alternative power facility in which when the power facility fails, the load of another power facility that replaces the supply to the supply destination to be supplied by the failed power facility increases. An appropriate maintenance plan can be made in consideration of changes in maintenance priority values.

FIG. 11 is a hardware configuration diagram showing the configuration of the maintenance plan creation apparatus. The maintenance plan creation apparatus includes an input interface 21, a CPU (Central Processing Unit) 22, a storage device 23, and an output interface 24. The interface is hereinafter referred to as IF. The functions of the cost information storage unit 2 and the facility information storage unit 3 are realized by the storage device 23 of FIG. 11, and the functions of the maintenance priority value calculation unit 6, the state information acquisition unit 5, the failure model acquisition unit 4, and the maintenance plan creation unit 7. Is realized by the CPU 22 executing a program. The IF is a wired port such as a cable port, a USB port, a direct connection port, or a wireless network port. The storage device 23 is a storage medium such as an HDD, an SSD, or a flash memory.

Embodiment 2. FIG.
FIG. 12 is a block diagram showing a maintenance plan creation device 100 according to Embodiment 2 of the present invention. The maintenance plan creation device 100 includes an expense information storage unit 2, an equipment information storage unit 3, a failure model acquisition unit 4, a state information acquisition unit 5, a maintenance priority value calculation unit 6, an input / output unit 8, and an important A degree calculation unit 101 and a maintenance plan creation unit 102 are provided.

First, an outline of each component will be described. Components having the same reference numerals as those in FIG. 1 are the same as those in the first embodiment, and thus detailed description thereof is omitted. This embodiment is different from the first embodiment in calculating importance. The importance level calculation unit 101 includes connection information between power facilities and customer facilities stored in the facility information storage unit 3, the supply contribution of the facilities, the supply trouble level when the facilities are stopped, and when the facilities are stopped. The importance of the facility is calculated based on the supply margin, the number of alternative routes to the supply destination to be supplied by the facility, the reliability of the alternative route, or the past failure history of the facility.

  FIG. 13 is an example of a power system diagram for explaining an example of a method for calculating the importance of equipment in the present embodiment. For example, the total contracted power of the consumers supplied by the B substation is 30 + 40 + 60 = 130 kW, and the rated capacity of the transformer B1 is 50 kVA. Therefore, the supply contribution of the transformer B1 is 50/130. Of importance.

  The supply margin indicates whether or not there is a margin in supply by other power transmission facilities when the power transmission facility is stopped due to a failure or the like. For example, the supply margin by other equipment when the transformer B1 is stopped is a shortage of 110 kVA of the total rated capacity of the transformers B2 to B4 with respect to the total contracted power of 130 kW of consumers, that is, 130−110 = 20 kV. Can be calculated. This supply margin may be the importance of the transformer B1.

  Here, the supply hindrance level indicates whether or not the supply to customer equipment is hindered and the degree of hindrance when the power transmission equipment is stopped due to a failure or the like. For example, when the transformer B1 is stopped, if the customer equipment 3 is supplied from the A substation, the A substation and the B substation can supply all the customer equipment. The supply trouble level due to the stop of B1 is zero. This supply hindrance may be set as the importance level. Moreover, it is good also considering those maximum values or minimum values as the importance of transformer B1.

The supply margin when the transformer B1 is stopped is the sum of the rated capacities of the transformers A1 to A2 of the A substation and the transformers B2 to B4 of the B substation 60 + 60 + 50 + 30 + 30 = 230 kVA. = 160, i.e. 160/230, and the importance of transformer B1 may be calculated as 1-160 / 230.

When the importance is determined by the number of alternative routes, the alternative route when the transformer B1 is stopped is the one route that operates the circuit breakers a and b to supply the customer equipment 3 from the A substation, the transformer B4 The alternative route when the circuit breaks down is to operate the circuit breakers a and b to supply the customer equipment 3 from the A substation, and to operate the customer equipment 1 to 3 by the transformers B2 to B4 without operating the circuit breaker. Therefore, the importance is defined by the reciprocal of the number of routes, the importance of the transformer B1 is 1/1 = 1, and the importance of the transformer B4 is 1/2 = 0. 5 The reliability of the alternative route may be calculated by a circuit breaker on the alternative route, the number of past failures in the power transmission line, and the like, and the importance of the route having a high number of failures may be increased.

  Here, the importance is calculated by various methods, and the importance is an index indicating how important the facility is. In other words, important equipment means equipment that needs to be more actively maintained, and it can be considered that equipment with a large contribution to supply is important, and the degree of supply disruption when the equipment stops is large. You may consider things as important, and set the importance using the indicators as described above. Changing the definition of importance means changing what is considered “risk”.

The maintenance plan creation unit 102 creates a maintenance plan in consideration of the maintenance priority value, cost, and importance. 5 and 6 show an example of a maintenance plan creation method by the maintenance plan creation unit 7. For example, suppose that a maintenance plan is formulated according to the maintenance period recommended by the manufacturer as shown in FIG. If equipment maintenance is performed in this way, huge costs are incurred in the 6th, 9th and 10th years. Concentrating costs in such a specific year is not desirable because it is difficult to secure a budget. Therefore, for the purpose of leveling maintenance costs for each fiscal year, if the equipment maintenance period is deferred, equipment 1 is 3 years, equipment 2 is 2 years, equipment 3 is 1 year, as shown in FIG. Delay.

Here, the maintenance plan creation unit 102 obtains an important maintenance priority value by multiplying the maintenance priority value by the importance, and the important maintenance is performed so that the maintenance is performed before the important maintenance priority value becomes high for the high importance equipment. A maintenance plan is formulated with a constraint that the priority value does not exceed a predetermined critical maintenance priority value upper limit. Here, in order to make the distinction easier, the maintenance priority value multiplied by the importance is referred to as the important maintenance priority value, but this is not limited to this, and the maintenance priority value multiplied by the importance is used. A new maintenance priority value may be set. The important maintenance priority value may be any value that can consider the importance and the maintenance priority value, and the calculation method is not limited.

  Next, a maintenance plan creation method of the maintenance plan creation unit 102 for the purpose of leveling maintenance costs every year in the present embodiment will be described. Such a maintenance plan can be obtained by finding solutions to the optimization problems of Equations 3 to 8 and Equation 12 below. Descriptions of Equations 3 to 8 are the same as those already described, and are therefore omitted. K ′ is an upper limit of the important maintenance priority value obtained by the maintenance priority value × importance, and is set in advance by the user. I (e) is the importance of equipment e. Expression 12 is a constraint condition that the important maintenance priority value of the facility e obtained by multiplying the maintenance priority value R (e, y) by I (e) is kept below K ′.

As a result of the output from the maintenance plan creation unit 102, when there is equipment whose maintenance time is significantly delayed from the original maintenance plan, the maintenance priority value for the equipment whose maintenance time is delayed increases. When the equipment whose maintenance time is delayed breaks down, the load of other equipment that operates by substituting that equipment increases, so the maintenance priority value calculation unit 6 sets the maintenance priority value of the alternative power equipment. Re-evaluate.

A maintenance plan creation device having such a configuration can create a maintenance plan that is more important and has fewer alternative supply routes or has a lower reliability of alternative supply routes so that maintenance can be performed earlier. It is possible to formulate an appropriate maintenance plan considering the importance of alternative supply and equipment. In the above description, the importance of the more important equipment is increased. However, the present invention is not limited to this, and the importance of the less important equipment may be reduced.

The maintenance priority value calculation unit 6 will be described with reference to an example in which the less important equipment is corrected so that the importance becomes smaller. For example, when the importance is defined by the reciprocal of the number of routes, the importance of the transformer B1 is 1, the maintenance priority value is R (B1, y), the importance of the transformer B4 is 0.5, and the maintenance priority value is R. (B4, y), for example, the important maintenance priority value of the transformer B1 is 1 × R (B1, y), and the important maintenance priority value of the transformer B4 is 0.5 × R (B4, y). To correct.

Specifically, when electricity is sent from A to B, if there is a route via C and a route via D, even if one of C and D fails, power transmission from A to B Therefore, if the importance is defined by the reciprocal of the number of routes, the importance of C and D is halved. If there are three routes, the importance will be 1/3. In this case, the important maintenance priority values are maintenance priority value × 1/2 and maintenance priority value × 1/3.

The maintenance plan creation unit 7 creates a maintenance plan so that the maintenance priority value is kept below a predetermined maintenance priority value preset by the user. A maintenance plan creation device having such a configuration can create a maintenance plan that is more important and has fewer alternative supply routes or has a lower reliability of alternative supply routes so that maintenance can be performed earlier. It is possible to formulate an appropriate maintenance plan considering the importance of alternative supply and equipment. In the present embodiment, the parts different from the first embodiment have been described. The other parts are the same as those in the first embodiment.

Embodiment 3 FIG.
FIG. 14 is a block diagram showing a maintenance plan creation device 140 according to Embodiment 3 of the present invention. First, an outline of each component will be described. Components having the same reference numerals as those in FIG. 1 are the same as those in the first embodiment, and thus detailed description thereof is omitted. The difference between the present embodiment and the other embodiments is the predicted deterioration level that is the current (previous future when viewed from the past) and the actual deterioration level that is acquired from the sensor. It is to correct the failure model by the deviation of the sensor deterioration degree (at the same time as described above).

Since the failure rate of the circuit breaker increases as the number of operations increases, the failure model may change if the circuit breaker is operated more frequently than previously predicted. Correct with the track record. The maintenance plan creation unit 141 creates a maintenance plan in consideration of the maintenance priority value and cost calculated based on the degree of deterioration. The created maintenance plan is presented to the user by the input / output unit 8 and is sent to the deterioration level simulation unit 142.

The degradation level simulation unit 142 receives a maintenance plan from the maintenance plan creation unit 141 and a failure model from the failure model acquisition unit 144, and executes the maintenance plan as created by the maintenance plan creation unit 141. Predict the future degree of degradation. Here, the predicted degree of deterioration in the future includes the number of failures, failure rate, operation time, number of operations, temperature, pressure, partial discharge representing the insulation state of electric equipment, gas pressure, and the like for each future year. In the present embodiment, the deterioration degree is predicted from the failure model. However, the present invention is not limited to this, and the deterioration degree may be predicted using another method. The degree of deterioration is a concept including a failure rate, and the failure model is not limited to the one representing the failure rate, and may represent the degree of deterioration. The maintenance priority value may be calculated from the failure rate as described in the first embodiment, or may be calculated from the deterioration degree as in the present embodiment, and the calculation method is not limited.

FIG. 15 is an example of the predicted deterioration degree of the sensor output, which is a simulation result of the deterioration degree simulation unit 142 when the sensor output is used as the deterioration degree. It is assumed that the sensor output of the 0th to 3rd years is measured as indicated by a circle in the figure. If the sensor output value is extrapolated, a future sensor output can be predicted as shown by a solid line 151 in FIG. As an extrapolation method, there is a method in which regression analysis is performed using a Weibull curve, a logistics curve, or the like, and a function that well represents the progress of measurement values of past sensor outputs is fitted.

  The sensor output indicated by the solid line 151 is a predicted value of the sensor output in the 10th year when maintenance is not performed. Assuming that the maintenance plan creation unit 141 outputs a plan for adjustment and repair that is simple maintenance in the eighth year, the simulation results show that the sensor output decreases discontinuously in the eighth year as shown by the dotted line 152 in the figure. Result. If the maintenance plan creation unit 141 outputs a plan for equipment maintenance in the 9th year, the simulation results are output to the same level as the 0th year in the 9th year as shown by the broken line 153 in the figure. Results in a decrease.

Or you may correct | amend a failure model like several 10 and several 11 according to the time when the maintenance work was planned, and the content of the maintenance work. The degree of decrease in sensor output due to maintenance work such as adjustment, repair, and maintenance can be estimated by past actual values, design values, or analysis methods such as FMEA (Failure Mode and Effect Analysis). .

As an output result of the deterioration degree simulation unit 142, a predicted value of the deterioration degree every predetermined period in the future (for example, every year) is stored in the deterioration degree prediction storage unit 143 as a predicted deterioration degree. Alternatively, instead of the predicted value, the prediction result may be expressed as a function, and function parameters such as a and b in Equations 10 and 11 may be stored.

The maintenance priority value calculation unit 145 receives the current predicted deterioration degree predicted in the past from the deterioration degree prediction storage unit 143, and compares it with the sensor deterioration degree that is the current actual deterioration degree acquired from the sensor, and the difference is large. In this case, the failure model is corrected by correcting the deterioration degree prediction result based on the sensor deterioration degree.

FIG. 16 shows an example of a maintenance priority value calculation method by the maintenance priority value calculation unit 145. The maintenance priority value calculation unit 145 receives, from the degradation level prediction storage unit 143, an expected degradation level 161 that is a result of the degradation level simulation unit 142 simulating a future degradation level during the previous plan. In addition, the maintenance priority value calculation unit 145 acquires the current sensor deterioration level 162 from the state information acquisition unit 5. Since there is a discrepancy between the predicted value of the predicted deterioration degree 161 at the present time and the current sensor deterioration degree 162, the expected deterioration degree 161 is corrected based on the current sensor deterioration degree 162.

As a correction method, there are methods such as changing the parameter values of functions such as a and b in Equations 10 and 11. The correction result 163 is a curve that passes through the point at the previous planned time point of the expected deterioration degree 161 and the current sensor deterioration degree 162. When there is no past predicted deterioration level stored in the deterioration level prediction storage unit 143, such as when a maintenance plan is first drafted, the basic failure model acquired by the failure model acquisition unit 144 is used as the predicted deterioration level. be able to. The maintenance priority calculation unit 145 calculates a maintenance priority value from the corrected model.

  The maintenance plan creation device having such a configuration can devise an appropriate maintenance plan that more accurately estimates the current maintenance priority value and the future maintenance priority value. In the present embodiment, the parts different from the first embodiment have been described. The other parts are the same as those in the first embodiment.

  DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 1 Maintenance plan preparation apparatus, 2 Cost information storage part, 3 Equipment information storage part, 4 Failure model acquisition part, 5 State information acquisition part, 6 Maintenance priority value calculation part, 7 Maintenance plan preparation part, 8 Input / output part, 142 Deterioration Degree simulation unit, 143 deterioration degree prediction storage unit, 144 failure model acquisition unit, 145 maintenance priority value calculation unit.

Claims (7)

A state information acquisition unit for acquiring state information representing a state of each of the supply facilities among a plurality of supply facilities connected to the customer facility;
A facility information storage unit that stores connection information representing a connection relationship between the customer facility and each of the supply facilities, and a maintenance priority value of each of the supply facilities;
When the maintenance priority value of each of the supply facilities is calculated from the failure rate, and the state information of the first supply facility among the plurality of supply facilities is deterioration information indicating deterioration of the first supply facility The second supply facility connected to the first supply facility through the customer facility is identified from the connection information, and the second supply facility is an alternative supply facility for the customer facility. A maintenance priority value calculation unit for increasing the maintenance priority value of the second supply facility;
A maintenance plan creation unit for creating a maintenance plan for determining which supply equipment is to be maintained at which time based on a maintenance priority value for each of the supply equipment;
A maintenance plan creation device comprising: The maintenance plan creation device according to claim 1, wherein the deterioration information is information indicating that a maintenance time has passed. The maintenance priority value calculation unit
The supply other than the failed supply facility in a connected relationship with the customer facility when the supply facility fails and the supplyable amount to the customer facility is lower than the demand amount required by the customer facility The maintenance plan creation device according to claim 1, wherein the facility is specified as the alternative supply facility. The maintenance priority value calculation unit
The maintenance plan creation device according to any one of claims 1 to 3, wherein the maintenance priority value of the second supply facility is increased only while the state information indicates the deterioration. . At least one of the supply trouble level, supply margin, the number of alternative routes to the supply destination to be supplied by the supply facility, the reliability of the alternative route, and the past failure history of the supply facility when the alternative supply facility is stopped Or an importance calculating unit for calculating the importance of the alternative supply facility based on
The maintenance plan creation unit
An important maintenance priority value is calculated from the importance level and the maintenance priority value, and based on the important maintenance priority value, a maintenance plan for determining which supply equipment is to be maintained at which time is created. The maintenance plan preparation device according to any one of claims 1 to 4. A deterioration degree simulation unit that calculates an expected deterioration degree that is an expected deterioration degree for each supply facility from a failure model,
The maintenance priority value calculation unit
The failure priority model is corrected based on the predicted deterioration level and the sensor deterioration level that is the actual deterioration level acquired from the sensor, and the maintenance priority is based on the predicted deterioration level calculated from the corrected failure model. The maintenance plan creation device according to any one of claims 1 to 5, wherein a value is calculated and stored in the facility information storage unit. Obtaining state information representing a state of each of the supply facilities among a plurality of supply facilities connected to customer facilities;
Storing connection information representing a connection relationship between the customer facility and each of the supply facilities and a maintenance priority value of each of the supply facilities in a facility information storage unit;
The maintenance priority value is calculated from the failure rate of the supply facility, and the state information of the first supply facility among the plurality of supply facilities is deterioration information indicating deterioration of the first supply facility, When the second supply facility connected to the first supply facility through the customer facility is identified from the connection information, and the second supply facility is an alternative supply facility for the customer facility, A step of increasing the maintenance priority value of a second supply facility; and a step of creating a maintenance plan that determines which supply facility is to be maintained at which time based on the maintenance priority value of each supply facility;
A maintenance plan creation method comprising:

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