JP2011205859A - Load estimating method of transformer - Google Patents

Abstract

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide a load estimating method of a transformer enabling estimation of the maximum load with high accuracy by using an existing instrument.SOLUTION: The contract capacity of a plurality of consumers connected to individual transformers, and the electric use amount are obtained (step 200), an use amount estimating function is derived which shows the relationship between the contract amount and the estimated use amount from the contract capacity and the electric use amount (step 204), a load estimated value is calculated which estimates the maximum load of respective transformers with current meters (step 206), a load actual measurement value is obtained which is the maximum load measured in the respective transformers with the current meters (step 200), a load error is calculated which shows the error between the load estimated value and the load actual measurement value (step 212), a use amount error is calculated which shows the error between the electric use amount and the estimated use amount obtained by using the use amount estimating function (step 208), an error function is calculated which shows these relationships from the load error and the use amount error (step 214), and the load estimated value is corrected by using the error function (step 220).

Description

  The present invention relates to a load estimation method for estimating a maximum load of a transformer.

  Transformers are installed in the high-voltage distribution lines that supply power from substations to homes and factories. The transformer transforms (transforms) AC 6.6 kV high-voltage power applied to the high-voltage distribution line into low-voltage power of 100 V or 200 V that can be used in homes and factories. As a general transformer, a pole transformer installed on a utility pole in an urban area or the like is well known. In recent years, undergrounding of electric wires has been promoted in order to improve the cityscape, and ground-mounted transformers have also been installed.

  In general, a distribution line connected to one transformer is branched at a plurality of locations to supply power to houses, commercial facilities, etc. (customers). The range (region) of customers supplied from this single transformer is called a bank. When these consumers use electricity, the transformer is loaded. The load of the transformer can be measured as a load current value (A). For example, an ammeter is installed in an arbitrarily extracted transformer, and the load current value (A) generated in the transformer with the ammeter is measured every predetermined unit time. Data is accumulated and analyzed by transmitting to a server installed in the network. As one of such analyses, it is possible to estimate the load even for a transformer without an ammeter using the measured load current value (A) as a sample.

  When the power consumption of the consumer increases and the transformer load exceeds the allowable range, the transformer is overloaded. Overloaded transformers have a reduced service life as the internal temperature rises, and if an excessive load occurs, they will fail. The occurrence of overload can be prevented by selecting and installing a transformer having a sufficiently large capacity in advance. However, transformers increase in equipment price and installation cost as their capacity increases. For this reason, it is uneconomical to select a transformer with a capacity with an excessive likelihood in consideration of overload. In other words, it is necessary to accurately grasp the maximum load that can be generated and to select a transformer that can tolerate the maximum load without excess or deficiency.

  Conventionally, various methods have been proposed for estimating the maximum load that can be generated in a transformer. For example, a method for obtaining the maximum load of a transformer from the contracted capacity and the demand type (industry) of a customer who is supplied with electric power by a transformer is widespread. This method is also called a kW method, and uses a correlation between the contracted capacity and type of business of the consumer and the maximum load of the transformer.

  Further, for example, Patent Literature 1 discloses a transformer load assumption method in a distribution system in which a measurement consumer having daily load measurement data (having a load survey meter) and a non-measurement consumer having no daily load are mixed. . A load survey meter is a device that is attached to a distribution board in a house, measures the power consumption of a consumer every predetermined time, and transmits measurement data to a server or the like. In patent document 1, even if it is a non-measurement consumer who does not have a load survey measuring instrument, the measurement consumer with similar power consumption from the fluctuation pattern of the monthly power consumption measured from a watt-hour meter (electric meter). And the daily load of the consumer is determined based on the daily load measurement data of the measured consumer. And the daily load for every transformer and the load of a predetermined period are assumed (estimated).

JP 2006-352996 A

  According to the method of Patent Document 1, it is possible to estimate the maximum load of the transformer that can be generated. However, the method of Patent Document 1 is premised on the existence of a load survey measuring instrument, and the accuracy of load estimation is considered to depend on the penetration rate of the load survey measuring instrument. For example, for non-measurement consumers, a similar measurement consumer is found from the fluctuation pattern of monthly power consumption, and daily load measurement data is estimated. Therefore, it is a premise that there are many measurement consumers with the same power consumption as non-measurement consumers, and the estimation of transformer load by the method of Patent Document 1 has a limit in improving the accuracy. .

  On the other hand, the kW method described above is a method that can be easily implemented in that it does not require a dedicated instrument when determining the maximum load of the transformer. However, if the maximum load is estimated only from the contract capacity and the type of industry, there is a possibility that an error may occur between the maximum load actually generated due to the characteristics of the region and each customer. In this case, since it is necessary to set the maximum load larger than the estimated value in consideration of the error, there is room for further optimization.

  In view of such problems, an object of the present invention is to provide a transformer load estimation method capable of estimating the maximum load with high accuracy using an existing meter.

  In order to solve the above problems, the inventors have intensively studied and focused on the fact that the error between the maximum load of the transformer determined by the kW method and the maximum load actually generated depends on the living behavior of the consumer. . The consumer's daily behavior is expressed as the amount of electricity that can be measured from the electricity meter, and there is a correlation between the amount of electricity used and the maximum load. It has been found that there is a correlation between the error with respect to the quantity (estimated value) and the error with respect to the estimated value of the maximum load, and the present invention has been completed.

  That is, in order to solve the above problems, a representative configuration of a load estimation method for a transformer according to the present invention is a load estimation method for estimating a maximum load of a transformer, and includes a plurality of loads connected to individual transformers. The contract capacity of multiple customers and the electricity usage actually used by multiple consumers are obtained, and the usage estimation function that shows the relationship between the contract capacity and the estimated usage is derived from the contract capacity and the electricity usage. From the contract capacity and industry of multiple consumers connected to each of some of the transformers with ammeters, a load estimate that estimates the maximum load of each transformer with ammeters Calculate and obtain the actual load value that is the maximum load measured in each ammeter-equipped transformer, and calculate the load error indicating the error between the estimated load value and the actual load value for each ammeter-equipped transformer. Connected to each transformer with ammeter Calculate the usage error indicating the error between the estimated usage and the electricity usage calculated using the usage estimation function for multiple consumers, and use the load error and usage error of the transformer with multiple ammeters. An error function indicating these relationships is derived, and the estimated load value is corrected using the error function even for a transformer without an ammeter.

  According to the above configuration, the estimated load of the transformer is corrected using the electricity usage actually measured by each individual consumer. Therefore, a transformer with no ammeter is not used with new instruments, and more accurate. High load estimation is possible.

  The above-mentioned load estimation method for the transformer derives a usage estimation function and an error function using the electricity usage and the actual load measurement value for the month when the load was highest in the transformer with an ammeter within a certain past period. May be. With this configuration, it is possible to estimate the maximum load that can occur in the bank of individual transformers. Thereby, for example, it becomes possible to install and manage the transformer assuming midsummer or midwinter when the maximum load increases throughout the year.

  The above usage amount estimation function or error function may be a linear function. According to this, it becomes possible to estimate the maximum load of the transformer with simpler processing.

  ADVANTAGE OF THE INVENTION According to this invention, the load estimation method of the transformer which can estimate the maximum load with high precision using an existing meter can be provided.

It is a figure explaining the power distribution system with which the load estimation method of the transformer concerning this embodiment is implemented. It is a figure explaining the load of the transformer estimated by the conventional kW method. It is a figure explaining the error by the living action which appears in the amount of electricity usage of a consumer. It is a figure which illustrates the correlation of usage-amount error and load error. It is a block diagram which shows the structure of the transformer load estimation apparatus which performs the load estimation method of the transformer of this embodiment. It is a flowchart which shows the load estimation method of the transformer of this embodiment. It is a figure which illustrates the data recorded on a data table. It is a figure explaining a usage-amount estimation function. It is a figure explaining an error function. It is a figure which shows the effectiveness of the load estimation method of the transformer of embodiment.

  Hereinafter, preferred embodiments of the present invention will be described in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings. The dimensions, materials, and other specific numerical values shown in the embodiments are merely examples for facilitating understanding of the invention, and do not limit the present invention unless otherwise specified. In the present specification and drawings, elements having substantially the same function and configuration are denoted by the same reference numerals, and redundant description is omitted, and elements not directly related to the present invention are illustrated. Omitted.

(Distribution system)
FIG. 1 is a diagram for explaining a power distribution system 100 in which the transformer load estimation method according to the present embodiment is implemented. As shown in FIG. 1, the distribution system 100 supplies a current sent from a substation 102 to a plurality of consumers such as a general household 104 and a commercial facility 106.

  The power distribution system 100 is divided into a plurality of power distribution sections 110 by a section switch 108. The section switch 108 stops power supply to the power distribution section 110 when an accident occurs in the power distribution section 110. One distribution section 110 is connected to wires from a plurality of substations 102, and the system switch to the distribution section 110 can be performed by switching the section switch 108. For example, when one substation is under maintenance or overloaded, the section switch 108 can be switched to supply power from another substation 102 to some or all of the distribution sections 110.

  Within the power distribution section 110, a transformer 112 is provided in front of the consumer. The transformer 112 transforms (transforms) AC high-voltage power applied to the high-voltage distribution line into low-voltage power that can be used in the general household 104 or the like. A plurality of consumers are connected to one transformer 112. The range (area) of consumers connected to each transformer 112 is expressed in units called banks.

  In the present embodiment, the transformer 112 is assumed to be a pole transformer provided on a utility pole. Generally, among all the pole transformers in operation, some pole transformers (for example, about 1/3000 of the total number) are provided with an ammeter. In this embodiment, the pole transformer with an ammeter is illustrated as the transformer 114 with an ammeter. The transformer 114 with an ammeter can measure the maximum load generated in the transformer 114 with an ammeter every predetermined unit time as a load current value (A). The measured data is transmitted to the server 118 installed at the office 116 and accumulated. In the server 118, a relational expression between the contract capacity and the maximum load used in the kW method is obtained by regression analysis from the statistics of the load measured by the transformer 114 with ammeter. When the relational expression is obtained, the load of the transformer 112 is obtained by the kW method regardless of the presence or absence of the ammeter.

(Transformer load estimation method)
A transformer load estimation method according to this embodiment will be described. In the transformer load estimation method according to the present embodiment, it is possible to estimate the load value closer to the actual measurement value by reflecting the daily behavior of the consumer in the value.

  FIG. 2 is a diagram illustrating the transformer load estimated by the conventional kW method. The horizontal axis in FIG. 2 is a load actual measurement value actually measured by a transformer with an ammeter, and is a value of a load of the transformer to be obtained (estimated) by the kW method. The vertical axis represents the load value of the transformer estimated by the kW method. The plot in FIG. 2 shows the load value of one transformer. As described above, the kW method is a method for obtaining the maximum load of the transformer from the contracted capacity and the demand type (industry) of the consumer supplied with power from the transformer.

  When the load estimation by the kW method has an ideal accuracy, the load estimated value and the load actual measurement value coincide with each other. And the plot of the value acquired from the some transformer is located on the same straight line (on a regression curve), for example. However, in reality, there are a variety of consumer lifestyles, so there is a limit to the accuracy in estimating the contract capacity of the consumer and the load on the transformer only from the industry. Therefore, as shown in FIG. 2, between the load that can be estimated from the contracted capacity in (1) (value on the regression curve) and the actual load value measured by the transformer with ammeter (value to be obtained). (2) causes an error (load error) due to daily activities.

  FIG. 3 is a diagram for explaining an error due to living behavior that appears in the electricity usage of a consumer. The horizontal axis in FIG. 3 represents the amount of electricity used by the consumer as measured from the electricity meter of the consumer installed in a house or the like. The vertical axis represents the estimated usage amount indicating the usage amount of electricity that can be estimated from the contract capacity of the customer and the type of industry, as in the kW method. Generally, since the electricity usage amount of a consumer has a correlation with the contract capacity and the type of business, the estimated usage amount can be obtained from their relational expression (usage amount estimation function). FIG. 3 shows values in units of consumers, and the plot shows the amount of electricity used by one consumer.

  If the estimation of electricity usage from contracted capacity and industry has an ideal accuracy, the estimated usage and electricity usage match. However, as in the case of transformer load estimation, there is a limit to the accuracy in estimating contract capacity and electricity usage due to the diversity of consumer behavior. And a consumer's living behavior also appears as an error between the estimated usage amount and the electricity usage amount. In FIG. 3, between the estimated usage (value on the regression curve) that can be estimated from the contracted capacity in (3) and the electrical usage measured from the electric meter, the error (use) due to living behavior in (4) Amount error).

  Here, since the load error and the usage error are both errors caused by the daily behavior of the consumer, it is estimated that there is a correlation between the load error and the usage error. For example, FIG. 4 is a diagram illustrating the correlation between usage error and load error. FIG. 4 shows values in transformer units, and the usage error is shown in transformer units, not in consumer units. As illustrated in FIG. 4, the correlation between the usage error and the load error can be obtained as a regression curve (including a straight line) and its regression equation (error function). In the transformer load estimation method according to the present embodiment described below, an error function between the usage error and the load error is obtained, and the estimated load value estimated by the kW method is corrected using the error function. As a result, it is possible to estimate the load with higher accuracy according to the actual load, reflecting the daily behavior of the consumer.

  FIG. 5 is a block diagram illustrating a configuration of a transformer load estimation device that executes the transformer load estimation method of the present embodiment, and FIG. 6 is a flowchart illustrating the transformer load estimation method of the present embodiment. Hereinafter, the flowchart of FIG. 6 will be described with reference to FIGS. 1 and 5.

  A transformer load estimation device (hereinafter referred to as a load estimation device 120) shown in FIG. 5 estimates the maximum load that can be generated in the transformer 112 in the current bank. The maximum load can be estimated assuming a predetermined month, for example. This makes it possible to predict a future load that can occur in the transformer 112. In the following description, the transformer 112 includes the transformer 114 with an ammeter unless otherwise specified.

  The load estimation device 120 includes a control unit 122. The control unit 122 manages and controls the overall function of the load estimation device 120 by a semiconductor integrated circuit including a central processing unit (CPU).

  The input unit 124 includes various devices that take in information from the outside, such as a keyboard, a mouse, a touch panel, a file input / output device, and data communication through a network.

  The output unit 126 plays a role of outputting internal information to the outside. Specifically, for example, the output unit 126 includes a display, a printer, or the like, and displays or prints information to the user. The output unit 126 can also store the output contents as data in a recording medium, and can also perform data communication over the network, web display, and the like.

  The data table 128 includes a ROM, a RAM, an EEPROM, a nonvolatile RAM, a flash memory, an HDD, and the like. The data table 128 can record data of each item described later acquired from the consumer.

  In the transformer load estimation method shown in FIG. 6, in step 200, first, the control unit 122 is actually used by a plurality of customers and contract capacity of a plurality of consumers connected to each transformer 112. The amount of electricity used, which is the amount of electricity used, and the actual load value of the transformer 112 are acquired and recorded in the data table 128. If there is no change in the contract capacity, the value at the time of contract with the customer can be used. About electricity usage, it can acquire from the monthly electricity usage obtained by the meter-reading value of the electric meter for every month. The actual load value of the transformer 112 is acquired from the maximum monthly load measured by the ammeter of the transformer 114 with ammeter.

  FIG. 7 is a diagram illustrating data recorded in the data table 128. FIG. 7 (a) illustrates customer data, FIG. 7 (b) illustrates some transformer data with ammeter, and FIG. 7 (c) illustrates the majority of remaining transformer data (without ammeter). . As illustrated in FIG. 7A, the contracted capacity and the electricity usage of each consumer acquired in step 200 are recorded together with the consumer ID (identification number) for each date and time (month) and bank. In the customer data, the industry of the customer is also recorded. Moreover, as illustrated in FIG. 7B, the actual load value of the transformer 112 acquired in step 200 is recorded together with the date (month), the bank, and the transformer ID. In the transformer data, the capacity of the transformer 112 and the like are also recorded. Further, in the transformer data (without ammeter) illustrated in FIG. 7C, data of items similar to those in FIG. 7B other than the actually measured load value is recorded.

  The frame of the customer data and the transformer data can be created, for example, on a monthly basis. A customer data frame can be created for each bank. The data table 128 can store a plurality of frames up to the present along the time series for the frames of the customer data and the transformer data.

  The value of each item of the data recorded in the data table 128 may be acquired by the input of the user of the load estimation device 120, or the data stored in the other device or other organization in advance in the data table 128. You may store and acquire. Further, the process of step 200 may be a process that is periodically performed without waiting for an external input.

  The data extraction unit 130 illustrated in FIG. 5 is a database engine, and can extract corresponding data (record) from the data table 128 based on a predetermined condition. In step 202 of FIG. 6, the data extraction unit 130 extracts data of a predetermined date and time (for example, monthly) from the customer data and transformer data in the data table 128. For example, the contract capacity for each customer, the type of industry, the amount of electricity used, and the actual load value of the transformer 112 are extracted at a predetermined date (month). Extraction of these data is performed on a plurality of banks in a predetermined power distribution section 110.

  The data extracted by the data extraction unit 130 in step 202 may be extracted from the month in which the load is maximum in the bank in which the transformer 114 with ammeter is provided within a certain past period. This makes it possible to estimate the maximum load that can occur in the bank of individual transformers 112. Note that the data extraction unit 130 may extract data from a month in which the amount of electricity used is maximum within a certain past period. This also makes it possible to indirectly estimate the maximum load that can occur in the bank of individual transformers 112. Further, the data extraction unit 130 can also extract data in response to designation of the date and time (month) by the user.

  In step 204, the function deriving unit 132 (see FIG. 5) derives a usage estimation function indicating the relationship between the contracted capacity and the estimated usage from the contracted capacity and the electrical usage extracted by the data extraction unit 130 in step 202. To do.

  FIG. 8 is a diagram for explaining the usage amount estimation function. FIG. 8 shows values in units of transformers, that is, in units of banks, and each plot shows values integrated for each bank. In detail, in each transformer 112, the integrated value of the electric consumption calculated | required about the some consumer and the integrated value of each contract capacity of the same some consumer are represented. As shown in FIG. 8, the usage amount estimation function can be derived as an approximation function that approximates the relationship between the contracted capacity of the plurality of transformers 112 and the electrical usage amount. By determining the usage amount estimation function as a linear function, it is possible to estimate the maximum load of the transformer 112 with a simpler process.

  In step 206, the calculation unit 134 obtains (calculates) an estimated usage amount from the contracted capacity of the customer extracted in step 202 using the usage amount estimation function derived by the functional equation deriving unit in step 204. This estimated usage is calculated for each transformer. For example, it calculates using the integrated value of the contract capacity of a plurality of consumers.

  In step 208, the calculation unit 134 calculates a usage error indicating an error between the estimated usage calculated in step 206 and the electrical usage extracted in step 202. This usage error is calculated for each transformer. For example, by using an integrated value of electricity usage of a plurality of consumers in the same bank, it can be calculated as a usage error for each transformer. The usage error is calculated for a plurality of transformers 112 in a predetermined distribution section 110. As a result, the usage error of the consumer for the date (month) is acquired from the data of the predetermined date (month) extracted in step 202.

  Next, in step 210, the load estimation unit 136 calculates a load estimated value obtained by estimating the maximum load of each transformer 112 from the contract capacity and the business type extracted in step 202. Calculation of the estimated load value by the load estimation unit 136 is performed based on the kW method. Specifically, a relational expression is derived from the relationship between the contracted capacity and type of business of the consumer and the actually measured load value obtained from the transformer 114 with an ammeter. As a simple example of the type of business, it can be divided into housing and others. As another example, it can be divided into a house, a store, a factory, an office, and the like.

  In step 212, the calculation unit 134 calculates a load error indicating an error between the load estimated value obtained in step 210 and the actual load value extracted by the data extraction unit 130 in step 202. The load error is calculated for each transformer 112 in a predetermined power distribution section 110. Thus, the load error of the transformer 112 with respect to the date (month) is acquired from the data of the predetermined date (month) extracted in step 202.

  In step 214, the functional equation deriving unit derives an error function indicating the relationship between the load error and the usage error of the plurality of transformers 112. This error function corresponds to the date and time (month) of the data extracted in step 202. For example, the error function in the month when the load was maximum in the transformer with ammeter within a certain past period.

  FIG. 9 is a diagram for explaining the error function. FIG. 9 shows values in transformer units, and each plot shows the value of one transformer 112. As shown in FIG. 9, the error function can be derived as an approximate function that approximates the relationship between the usage error and the load error of each transformer 112. Similar to the usage amount estimation function, the error function is obtained as a linear function, whereby the maximum load of the transformer can be estimated by a simpler process.

  In step 216, the data extraction unit 130 extracts individual data from the customer data and the transformer data in the data table 128. For example, the current (latest) contract capacity and industry of a plurality of consumers are extracted. In step 218, the load estimation unit 136 calculates a load estimated value obtained by estimating the maximum load of each transformer of the transformer 112 based on the kW method from the contract capacity and the business type extracted in step 216. It is calculated by the same process. The load estimated value of the transformer 112 in step 218 can be calculated for a specific transformer in response to input from the user.

  In step 220, the correction unit 138 corrects the estimated load value of each transformer 112 calculated in step 218 using the error function calculated in step 214. Thereby, an accurate value can be acquired. In addition, the transformer 112 is installed and managed in consideration of the maximum load that may occur in the future by performing corrections assuming midsummer or winter when the maximum load increases throughout the year, such as August and January. It becomes possible.

  According to the above configuration, since the load estimated value of the transformer 112 is corrected using the electric usage actually measured in each consumer, the transformer 112 without an ammeter can be used without using new instruments. More accurate load estimation according to the load is possible.

  Note that the steps in the transformer load estimation method of the present embodiment do not necessarily have to be processed in time series in the order described in the flowchart of FIG. 6, and may include processing in parallel or by a subroutine. For example, the processing from step 204 to step 208 and the processing from step 210 to step 212 can be performed by changing the order or in parallel. Also in the processing from step 216 to step 218, the order from the processing from step 204 to step 214 can be changed.

(Evaluation test)
FIG. 10 is a diagram showing the effectiveness of the transformer load estimation method of the present embodiment. FIG. 10A is an example in which the estimated load value estimated based on the conventional kW method is corrected by the load estimation method of the present embodiment, and the load error between the corrected estimated load value and the actually measured load value is shown. is there. FIG. 10B is a comparative example showing a load error between the estimated load value of the transformer and the actual load value estimated based on the conventional kW method.

  In the evaluation test of FIG. 10, actual load values were obtained from 164 transformers. In addition, the monthly power consumption was used as the electricity usage of the consumer, and the load estimated value by the kW method was calculated based on the contracted capacity and the industry of the consumer. The load error σ is expressed as a standard deviation. Below, with reference to FIG. 10A and FIG. 10B, the load error of an Example and a comparative example is compared.

  In the comparative example of FIG. 10B, the load error was 63.8A. On the other hand, in the example of FIG. 10A, the load error is 58.6 A, and it can be confirmed that the error is smaller than that of the comparative example.

  Here, the load estimated value is a load value estimated from the contract capacity of the consumer and the type of business. And actual load value is the value of the actual load measured based on the transformer with an ammeter. The error between these two values, that is, the load error, arises from the daily behavior of the consumer. Therefore, in the load estimation method of the present embodiment, by correcting the estimated load value using the monthly electricity usage amount in which the consumer's living behavior appears, the consumer's living behavior is reflected in the value, and the measured value is more A near load estimate is calculated. In the example of FIG. 10A, since the load error is smaller than that of the comparative example of FIG. 10B, it can be confirmed that the calculation of the estimated load value closer to the actual measurement value is achieved.

  As described above, according to the load estimation method for the transformer according to the present embodiment, it is possible to estimate the load with higher accuracy in accordance with the actually measured value without using a new instrument.

  As mentioned above, although preferred embodiment of this invention was described referring an accompanying drawing, this invention is not limited to the example which concerns. It will be apparent to those skilled in the art that various changes and modifications can be made within the scope of the claims, and these are naturally within the technical scope of the present invention. Understood.

  The present invention can be used in a load estimation method for estimating the maximum load of a transformer.

DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 100 ... Distribution system 104 ... General household 106 ... Commercial facility 108 ... Section switch 110 ... Distribution section 112 ... Transformer 114 ... Transformer with ammeter 116 ... Office 118 ... Server 120 ... Load estimation apparatus 122 ... Control part 124 ... Input unit 126 ... Output unit 128 ... Data table 130 ... Data extraction unit 132 ... Function derivation unit 134 ... Calculation unit 136 ... Load estimation unit 138 ... Correction unit

Claims (3)

A load estimation method for estimating the maximum load of a transformer,
Obtain the contracted capacity of multiple consumers connected to individual transformers and the electricity usage actually used by the multiple consumers,
Deriving a usage estimation function indicating the relationship between the contract capacity and the estimated usage from the contract capacity and the electricity usage,
Of many transformers, calculate the load estimation value that estimates the maximum load of each ammeter transformer from the contracted capacity and industry of multiple customers connected to each of the transformers with some ammeters And
Obtain a load actual measurement value that is the maximum load measured in each of the transformers with an ammeter,
For each of the transformers with an ammeter, a load error indicating an error between the load estimated value and the load actual measurement value is calculated,
Calculate a usage error indicating an error between the estimated usage and the electrical usage calculated using the usage estimation function for a plurality of consumers connected to each of the transformers with ammeters,
Deriving an error function indicating the relationship from the load error and the usage error of the plurality of transformers with ammeters,
A load estimation method for a transformer, wherein the estimated load value is corrected using the error function even for a transformer without an ammeter.   Deriving the usage estimation function and the error function using the electricity usage and the actual load measurement value for the month when the load is maximum in the transformer with ammeter within a certain past period, The transformer load estimation method according to claim 1.   3. The transformer load estimation method according to claim 1, wherein the usage amount estimation function or the error function is a linear function.

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