JP2003016374A - Evaluating method and drawing-up method for power generating facility plan, and program - Google Patents

Abstract

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide an evaluating method for a power generating facility plan which takes a risk evaluation regarding stable supply and influence on environment into consideration. SOLUTION: By this evaluating method for the power generating facility plan, the electric power demand of power generating facilities is predicted (101, 102, 110) and compared with suppliable electric power to evaluate whether the electric power can be supplied and the generated power energy (111, 103, 104), and the profitability of the power generation business of the power generating facilities is evaluated (105 to 109) according to the generated power energy and prediction information on economical efficiency. When the demand for the electric power is predicted, power load variation in a day is taken into consideration (110, 102). When the electric power supply capacity is evaluated, the reliability of the power generating facilities and influence on environment may be taken into consideration and when the demand for electric power is predicted, the competitive power with other companies may be taken into accounot.

Description

Detailed Description of the Invention

[0001]

BACKGROUND OF THE INVENTION 1. Field of the Invention The present invention relates to a method for formulating and evaluating a plan for power generation equipment such as a thermal power plant, and more particularly to a method for evaluating a power generation facility plan for a power station, a method for formulating a power generation facility plan, and a program. .

[0002]

2. Description of the Related Art Conventionally, when planning power generation facilities such as thermal power plants, the maximum demand forecast is judged from economic forecast values such as population increase and economic forecast, and the economic efficiency such as electricity price and fuel cost The profitability of the power generation equipment was evaluated by taking into consideration. In this series of evaluations, the economic evaluation generally uses a method called the present value method or the return on invested capital method.

FIG. 13 shows a conventional method for evaluating a power generation facility plan, which incorporates this evaluation of economic efficiency. In the figure, the regional economic model 101 predicts economic factors related to power demand such as population increase and economic growth in the relevant region. In the demand forecasting model 102, economic forecasting is performed based on variables representing economic conditions such as the number of people and GNP, and electric power demand for each year is created. In addition, the equipment planning model 103
Then, the available supply capacity of the power generation facility is determined from the current inspection plan and maintenance plan of the power generation facility, the new power generation facility to be constructed, and the utilization rate of these facilities. Next, the demand / supply evaluation model 104 compares the electric power demand for each year predicted by the demand prediction model 102 with the electric power supplyable capacity obtained by the facility planning model 103, and supplies electric power based on the demand and the supplyable capacity. The availability and the amount of power that can be supplied are evaluated.

Further, in the evaluation method of FIG. 13, a fuel price model 105 for predicting future fuel prices, an expense model 106 for predicting expenses such as personnel expenses and taxes, and an equipment repair plan obtained by the equipment planning model 103. An equipment repair cost model 107 is prepared for obtaining a future equipment repair cost based on the above. Data for obtaining a future power generation cost is predicted by each of the models 105 to 107. Further, a power price model 108 is also prepared, and a future power price for each contract content is predicted by this model 108. Finally, the profit / cost evaluation model 109 integrates the prediction data for obtaining the power generation cost, the power price prediction data, and the generated power amount predicted by the demand / supply evaluation model 104 to evaluate the profit plan by the power generation business. To be done.

[0005]

However, according to the evaluation method of the power generation facility plan shown in FIG. 13 described above, the power plant facility plan with respect to the demand can be quantitatively evaluated based on the economic forecast. Such factors cannot be evaluated because the factors for evaluating the risk of stable supply of electricity and the changes in social conditions such as environmental response are not reflected. Further, since the evaluation based on the above-mentioned evaluation method is performed under the assumption that the assumed prediction data is always accurate, the uncertainty of the prediction is not taken into consideration. Furthermore, the power generation facility plan is formulated by humans based on the above evaluation, and there is no guarantee that it will always be optimal for the evaluation.

The present invention has been made in view of the above-described conventional power generation equipment plan evaluation method and its formulation method, and is a factor necessary for the recent power generation equipment plan, such as risk assessment regarding stable supply and environmental protection. The objective is to provide a method for evaluating and formulating a power generation facility plan that considers the impact.

Another object of the present invention is to provide a method for evaluating a power generation facility and a method for formulating the power generation facility plan in consideration of the uncertainty of the forecast data used for evaluating the power generation facility plan.

Further, another object of the present invention is to provide a method and program for formulating a power generation facility plan which is optimized in an optimum state by evaluating the evaluation result of the power generation facility plan.

[0009]

In order to achieve the various objects described above, the invention according to claim 1 provides a method for evaluating a power generation facility plan. This evaluation method predicts the demand power for the power generation facility, compares the demand power and the available power to evaluate the availability of power supply and the amount of power generation, and obtains the power generation amount and the prediction information of economic efficiency. Based on this, the basic structure of evaluating the profitability of the power generation business using the power generation equipment will be adopted. In this evaluation, the prediction of the demand power includes a process of considering a daily load change of the power generation equipment. As a result, the power generation facility plan is evaluated by taking into consideration the demand change that has been conventionally performed and the change in the demand for electric power during one day.

According to the second aspect of the present invention, in the evaluation procedure based on the above-described basic configuration, the process of considering the reliability of the power generation equipment in the evaluation of the availability of the power supply and the generated power amount. included. As a result, the power generation facility plan is evaluated by taking into consideration the risk related to stable supply as a facility reliability evaluation model, in addition to the demand forecast that has been performed conventionally.

Further, according to the invention of claim 3,
In the evaluation procedure based on the basic configuration described above, the evaluation of the availability of power supply and the available power amount includes a process of considering an operational constraint of the power generation facility regarding the environment.
As a result, in addition to the conventional forecast of demand and economic efficiency, the amount of emissions of substances that affect the environment such as NOx, SO2, and CO2 (hereinafter referred to as environmental impact substances) is restricted. The power plant plan for operation will be evaluated.

Further, according to the invention of claim 4,
In the evaluation procedure based on the basic configuration described above, the process of considering the comparative information of competitiveness with other companies is included in the prediction of the demand power. As a result, the power generation facility plan is evaluated by adding the competitiveness with other companies as an evaluation model in addition to the demand forecast that has been performed conventionally.

Further, according to the invention of claim 5,
In the evaluation procedure based on the basic configuration described above, a process of predicting the demand power in consideration of the load change of the power to the power generation facility for one day, and predicting the demand power in consideration of comparative information of competitiveness with other companies. Processing, a process of evaluating whether or not the power supply is possible and the amount of power that can be supplied in consideration of the reliability of the power generation facility, and whether or not the power supply is possible in consideration of operational constraints of the power generation facility with respect to the environment. At least two processes are included in the process of evaluating the available power supply amount. As a result, in addition to the conventional demand forecast, changes in power load during one day, risks related to stable supply, operational restrictions due to environmental impact substances that affect the environment, and competitiveness with other companies Factors that arbitrarily combine comparisons are considered in the demand forecast model, and the power generation facility plan is evaluated based on the result of this consideration.

Further, according to the invention described in claim 6, in each of the above-mentioned configurations, a model for evaluating whether or not the electric power can be supplied and the amount of generated electric power and a model for evaluating the profitability of the power generation business are: It is configured to perform the evaluation in consideration of the uncertainty of the information used for the evaluation. As a result, the power generation facility plan is evaluated by taking into account the uncertainty of the forecast, in addition to the definite demand forecast that has been performed conventionally.

On the other hand, the invention according to claims 7 and 8 provides a method for formulating a power generation facility plan. In this formulating method, the demand power for the power generation equipment is predicted, and the demand power and the available power are compared to evaluate the availability of power supply and the power generation amount, and the power generation amount and the prediction information of economic efficiency are obtained. Based on this, the profitability of the power generation business using the power generation equipment is evaluated. At this time, an index for the construction plan of the power generation facility is created by optimizing the evaluation result of the power supply availability and the generated power amount and the evaluation result of the profitability. For example, a process of predicting the demand power in consideration of a daily load change of the power generation facility, a process of evaluating whether or not the power supply is possible and the available power amount in consideration of the reliability of the power generation facility, And at least one of the processes of evaluating whether or not the power can be supplied and the amount of power that can be supplied in consideration of the operational constraint of the power generation facility regarding the environment.
One process is included. Therefore, evaluation of supply / demand and evaluation of profit / cost are expressed as quantitative indicators. Using the setting items in the power generation facility plan as parameters, the parameter with which the evaluation index is optimum (maximum or minimum depending on how the evaluation index is set) is obtained.

According to a ninth aspect of the present invention, in the basic configuration of the above-described formulation method, the optimization process is performed based on whether or not the power supply is possible, the evaluation result of the generated power amount, and the profitability evaluation. An index for the construction plan of the power generation facility is created by optimizing the result and the evaluation result of the competitiveness with other companies. As a result, in addition to the demand / supply evaluation and profit / cost evaluation according to claims 7 and 8, competitiveness is expressed as a quantitative index and is added to the evaluation, and the parameter that optimizes the evaluation index. Is required.

According to the tenth aspect of the invention, in the basic configuration of the above-mentioned formulation method, the availability of the power supply, the evaluation of the amount of power generation, and the profitability of the power generation business are information used for the evaluation. The uncertainty is taken into consideration. As a result, in addition to the deterministic evaluation index, the evaluation index obtained from the evaluation of the uncertainty of the prediction is added, and the parameter relating to the power generation equipment that optimizes the evaluation index can be obtained.

[0018] The eleventh and twelfth aspects of the present invention also provide a computer-readable program for executing the power generation equipment plan evaluation method and method of formulating the present invention.

[0019]

BEST MODE FOR CARRYING OUT THE INVENTION Embodiments of the present invention will be described below with reference to the accompanying drawings. In the following description, the same or equivalent components as the components (process and model) described in FIG. 13 for explaining the conventional evaluation method will be denoted by the same reference numerals, and the description thereof will be omitted or simplified. To do. Moreover, a thermal power generation facility is assumed as the power generation facility.

(1) First Embodiment A method for evaluating a power generation facility plan according to the first embodiment of the present invention will be described with reference to FIGS.

FIG. 1 is an explanatory view for explaining the structure and procedure of the evaluation method implemented by this evaluation method. As an example, this power generation facility plan evaluation method is implemented by the computer system 10 configured as shown in FIG.

The computer system 10 includes a CPU device 11 as an arithmetic unit, a recording medium 12 connected to the CPU device 11, an input device 13, a display device 14,
And a printer 15 as an output device. The recording medium 12 stores in advance a program (see FIG. 1) of the power generation facility plan evaluation method executed in the first embodiment. The CPU device 11 reads out the program stored in the recording medium 12 and executes the evaluation method step by step according to a series of procedures defined in the program.
The computer system 10 is also applied to the embodiments described later.

FIG. 1 shows an outline of a power generation facility plan evaluation method executed by the CPU device 11. It should be noted that this evaluation method is performed by the CPU device 1 for each model expressed by a mathematical formula or the like.
1 is processed. Therefore, the program read out from the recording medium 12 by the CPU device 11 is an integrated procedure for all models.

In the process of FIG. 1, the demand forecast for each year is derived from the regional economic model 101 and the demand forecast model 102 as in the conventional case. The demand forecast detailed model 110 adds the power demand change forecast amount for one day to the demand forecast for each year. In order to consider the influence on the electricity price, the demand forecast amount for one day shall be forecast individually for each contract form related to the electricity price.

The demand / supply evaluation model 104 subtracts other types of load patterns such as hydraulic power and nuclear power other than thermal power required by the other power supply equipment load pattern model 111 from the power demand forecast value obtained by the demand forecast model 102. Calculate the forecasted power demand for thermal power generation. Further, in the demand / supply evaluation model 104, by comparing the inspection plan and maintenance plan of the thermal power generation facility defined by the facility planning model 103 with the power supplyable amount of the thermal power generation facility in consideration of the newly constructed power generation facility, etc. It is possible to evaluate whether or not electric power can be supplied to the thermal power generation facility corresponding to the change in demand during one day. In addition, here, the load change amount that the power generation equipment can support is reflected as the data of the equipment plan, and
It is possible to evaluate whether or not it is possible to follow the peak value of the day and the change in load by evaluating whether or not it is possible to cope with changes in daily power demand.

As in the conventional evaluation method, the fuel price model 105 predicts the future fuel price, the expense model 106 predicts future expenses such as personnel expenses and taxes, and the facility repair cost model 107. Thus, the future equipment repair cost is obtained from the equipment repair plan obtained by the equipment planning model 103. These future fuel prices, expenses, and facility repair costs are provided to the profit / cost evaluation model 109 as forecast data necessary for obtaining the power generation cost. In addition, the power price model 108 predicts a power sale unit price for each contract content, and this prediction data is also given to the profit / cost evaluation model 109. Further, the generated power amount corresponding to the demand amount for each contract form predicted by the demand / supply evaluation model 104 is also given to the profit / cost evaluation model 109.

Therefore, the profit / cost evaluation model 109
Evaluates the power supply cost and profit plan based on the data provided from the models 105 to 109 described above.

In the evaluation method shown in the figure, the operation by the demand / supply evaluation model 104 needs to be performed before the operation by the profit / cost evaluation model 109. In the process of reaching, the order of model calculation may be appropriately determined. For example, the order of calculation by the demand forecast model 102 and the other power supply facility load pattern model 111 is arbitrary, and the order of calculation of the fuel price model 105, the expense model 106, the facility repair cost model 107, and the power price model 108 is also arbitrary. Is.

As described above, according to the evaluation method of the first embodiment, the daily load change of the electric power is reflected in the prediction model, and the evaluation load including the followability to the electric power load change is calculated.
Examination is possible for individual thermal power plants. As a result, it is possible to make a more detailed equipment plan.

(2) Second Embodiment With reference to FIG. 3, a method for evaluating a power generation facility plan according to a second embodiment of the present invention will be described.

FIG. 3 shows an outline of a method for evaluating a power generation facility plan executed by the CPU device 11.

In the processing of FIG. 3, similar to the conventional evaluation method, the regional economic model 101 predicts the economic factors related to the power demand such as the population increase and the economic growth of the region, and the demand forecast model 102 calculates the economic factors. Create annual power demand based on forecast.

In addition, the facility plan model 103 determines the available power supply capacity from the current inspection plan and maintenance plan of the power generation facility, the newly constructed power generation facility, and the utilization rate of these facilities.

On the other hand, since the equipment installation model and the equipment installation / repairing plan are determined by the equipment planning model 103, the equipment reliability evaluation model 11 can be selected from the equipment repairing time, content, scale, cost, etc.
See 2 for equipment reliability. This is a calculation for reflecting the degree of sound maintenance of the equipment in the model by extending the inspection and changing the maintenance content. Here, in the reliability evaluation model 112, the soundness and reliability of equipment are quantified as a failure rate.

In the demand / supply evaluation model 104, with respect to the power demand predicted by the demand prediction model 102, the available power supply amount calculated by the equipment planning model 103 is calculated, and the equipment failure rate calculated by the reliability evaluation model 112 is calculated. In consideration of the above, the availability of power supply is evaluated.

Therefore, the profit / cost evaluation model 109
Evaluates the power supply cost and profit plan based on the data provided from the models 105 to 109 described above.

As described above, according to the second embodiment, the reliability is reflected in the model as the failure rate of the equipment from the repair time, the content, the scale, the cost, etc. of the equipment, and the demand considering the equipment reliability. You can get a supply rating. Therefore, it is possible to evaluate and study stable power supply.

(3) Third Embodiment With reference to FIG. 4, a method for evaluating a power generation facility plan according to a third embodiment of the present invention will be described.

FIG. 4 shows an outline of a method for evaluating a power generation facility plan executed by the CPU device 11.

In the processing of FIG. 4, similar to the conventional evaluation method, the regional economic model 101 predicts the economic factors related to the power demand such as the population increase and the economic growth of the region, and the demand forecast model 102 calculates the economic factors. Create annual power demand based on forecast.

Further, the facility plan model 103a is used to obtain the power supply capacity from the current inspection plan and maintenance plan of the power generation facility, the newly constructed power generation facility, and the utilization rate of these facilities. Here, the facility planning model 103a incorporates, as a model, the emission amount of the environmentally influential substances such as NOx, SOx, and CO2 generated during the operation of the facility with respect to the power generation amount, as compared with the conventional facility planning model 103.

On the other hand, in the environmental policy model 113, the concentration of environmentally influential substances such as NOx, SO2, CO2, etc., which are discharged,
Emission limits are set as a model. The constraint value is given by a regulation or a regulation value as a total amount.

The demand-supply model 104 receives the constraint values such as the emission amount and concentration of the environmental substances given from the environmental policy model 113, and based on the power generation amount of the facility planning model 103a and the environmental impact substance emission amount at the time of power generation, these Evaluate whether or not power can be supplied and the amount of power that can be supplied, subject to the restrictions on the emission of environmental impact substances.

Therefore, the profit / cost evaluation model 109
Evaluates the power supply cost and profit plan based on the data provided from the models 105 to 109 described above.

As described above, according to the third embodiment, it is possible to make a power generation facility plan when the emission amount of the environmental impact substance is restricted. For this reason, it becomes possible to examine and evaluate a power generation facility plan that incorporates environmental policies.

(4) Fourth Embodiment With reference to FIG. 5, a power generation equipment plan evaluation method according to a fourth embodiment of the present invention will be described.

FIG. 5 shows an outline of a power generation facility plan evaluation method executed by the CPU device 11.

In the process of FIG. 5, similarly to the conventional evaluation method, for the demand forecast for each year derived from the regional economic model 101 and the demand forecast model 102, another power generation company 114 Consider the estimated power supply by

In the demand / supply evaluation model 104, the power demand forecast value obtained by the demand forecast model 102 is subtracted from the power demand pattern obtained by the other company's power generation facility model 114 to obtain the power demand forecast value required for thermal power generation. Ask for.

Therefore, the profit / cost evaluation model 109
Evaluates the power supply cost and profit plan based on the data provided from the models 105 to 109 described above.

Furthermore, in addition to the demand / supply evaluation model 104 and the profit / cost evaluation model 109 which are evaluation models, a competitiveness evaluation model 115 is prepared. In this competitiveness evaluation model 115, another company's power generation facility model 114
Competitiveness can be evaluated by comparing the predicted value of the electric power selling price of the other company from the predicted value of the power generation cost and profit of the company obtained from the profit / cost evaluation model 109.

As described above, according to the present embodiment, in addition to the demand / supply evaluation and the profit / cost evaluation only for the company, the examination is performed from the viewpoint of comparing the competitiveness with other companies. Therefore, it is possible to evaluate the plan of the thermal power generation facility in more detail.

(Modifications of First to Fourth Embodiments)
It goes without saying that the above-described first to fourth embodiments can be carried out independently, but the configuration described in each embodiment is
It is also possible to implement one or more in any combination.

For example, by combining the first and second embodiments, it becomes possible to make a facility plan in which changes in the amount of power generation per day and consideration of facility reliability are added to the conventional model.
By combining the first and third embodiments, it becomes possible to plan a facility in which the change in the amount of power generation per day and the influence on the environment are added. By combining the first and fourth embodiments, it becomes possible to make a facility plan in which the influence of the change in the amount of power generation per day and the evaluation of the competitiveness with other companies are added. By combining the second and third embodiments, it becomes possible to plan equipment with additional consideration of equipment reliability and environmental impact. By combining the second and fourth embodiments,
This makes it possible to plan equipment with consideration of the impact of equipment reliability and evaluation of comparison with competitiveness with other companies. By combining the third and fourth embodiments, it is possible to perform a facility plan in which consideration is given to the influence on the environment and evaluation of comparison with competitiveness with other companies is added.

By combining the first, second, and third embodiments, consideration has been added to the conventional model regarding changes in the amount of power generation per day, effects of equipment reliability, and effects on the environment. Facility planning becomes possible. Second, third, and fourth
By combining the embodiments described above, it becomes possible to perform a facility plan in which the influence of the facility reliability, the influence on the environment, and the evaluation of the competitiveness comparison with other companies are added to the conventional model. Furthermore, by combining the first, second, third, and fourth embodiments, the conventional model can be used to change the amount of power generation per day,
It is possible to plan equipment with consideration of equipment reliability, environmental impact, and evaluation of competitiveness comparison with other companies.

Therefore, according to the various modified examples, 1
It is possible to reflect the load change of daily power in the model and perform the study including the followability to the load change of each power generation equipment. In addition, it is possible to reflect the reliability as a failure rate of the equipment in the model from the repair time, the content, the scale, the cost of the equipment, etc., and perform the demand supply evaluation in consideration of the equipment reliability.
Furthermore, it is possible to perform a more detailed equipment evaluation in which the demand prediction model takes into consideration the demand change with respect to the electric power load during the day. In addition, it becomes possible to perform equipment evaluation that takes into account risks related to stable supply as a reliability evaluation model of equipment. It is possible to perform equipment evaluation that takes into consideration operational restrictions due to environmental impact substances. Furthermore, in addition to assessing supply and demand, assessing profits and costs only for the company, it is possible to conduct a study that includes a comparison of competitiveness with other companies. These various actions and effects can also be obtained in an arbitrary combination according to the combination of the embodiments, so that a more detailed equipment plan can be made.

(5) Fifth Embodiment Referring to FIGS. 6 and 7, a power generation equipment plan evaluation method according to a fifth embodiment of the present invention will be described.

FIG. 6 shows an outline of a method for evaluating a power generation facility plan executed by the CPU device 11.

In the processing of FIG. 6, the demand forecast model 117 having uncertainty of forecast is applied to the demand forecast for each year derived from the regional economic model 101 and the demand forecast model 102, similarly to the conventional evaluation method. Predict change. FIG. 7 shows an example of the demand forecasting model 117 having forecast uncertainty. If the uncertainty of the demand forecast is expressed by, for example, a normal distribution, the probability distribution of the probability of occurrence is given by the average value and the variance value that represents the deviation from the average value. Random numbers are generated so as to follow this probability distribution, demand forecasting is performed, and this is given to the demand / supply evaluation model 104.

In the demand / supply evaluation model 104, the other power source equipment load pattern model 111 is calculated from the power demand forecast value obtained by the demand forecast model 117 having uncertainty of forecast.
The power demand forecast value required for thermal power generation is obtained by subtracting the load patterns of other types such as hydropower and nuclear power other than the thermal power required in. Furthermore, by comparing with the power supply possible amount of the thermal power generation facility considering the inspection plan and maintenance plan of the thermal power generation facility defined by the facility planning model 103, the power generation facility to be newly constructed, etc. Can be evaluated.

As in the conventional evaluation method, the fuel price model 105 predicts future fuel prices, the expense model 106 predicts future expenses such as personnel expenses and taxes, and the facility repair cost model 107. Thus, the future equipment repair cost is obtained from the equipment repair plan obtained by the equipment planning model 103. These future fuel prices, expenses, and facility repair costs are provided to the profit / cost evaluation model 109 as forecast data necessary for obtaining the power generation cost. In addition, the power price model 108 predicts a power sale unit price for each contract content, and this prediction data is also given to the profit / cost evaluation model 109. Further, the generated power amount corresponding to the demand amount for each contract form predicted by the demand / supply evaluation model 104 is also given to the profit / cost evaluation model 109.

Therefore, the profit / cost evaluation model 109
Evaluates the power supply cost and profit plan based on the data provided from the models 105 to 109 described above.

These evaluations are carried out many times under the condition that the predicted value of the demand in the demand prediction model 117 follows the probability distribution, and the average value and variance of the demand / supply evaluation and the profit / cost evaluation are obtained. Evaluate the risk of capital investment from the average value and the size of the variance.

Although the uncertainty is given only to the demand forecast model in FIG. 6, the same uncertainty as the demand forecast model is applied to each of the power evaluation model 108, the fuel price model 105, and the expense model 106 or any combination thereof. In addition, the average value and the variance may be calculated for the demand / supply evaluation and the profit / cost evaluation. This allows
From the average value and the size of the variance, evaluate the risk of capital investment,
It is possible to evaluate the comparison of competitiveness with other companies.

As described above, according to this embodiment, regarding the demand forecast, the fuel price, the power price, and the expense forecast, the uncertainty is reflected in the model, and the power generation facility plan is examined and evaluated. be able to. Therefore, it is possible to make a facility plan in consideration of the demand / supply, profit / cost, and risk due to the uncertainty of competitiveness comparison with other companies.

(6) Sixth Embodiment A method of formulating a power generation facility plan according to the sixth embodiment of the present invention will be described with reference to FIG.

FIG. 8 shows an outline of a method for formulating a power generation facility plan executed by the CPU device 11.

In the processing of FIG. 8, the demand / supply evaluation model 104 determines whether or not the power supply is possible and the capacity of the equipment from the power demand forecast value obtained by the demand forecast model 102 and the equipment forecast obtained by the equipment planning model 103. The size is evaluated.

As in the conventional evaluation method, the fuel price model 105 predicts the future fuel price, the expense model 106 predicts future expenses such as personnel expenses and taxes, and the facility repair cost model 107. Thus, the future equipment repair cost is obtained from the equipment repair plan obtained by the equipment planning model 103. These future fuel prices, expenses, and facility repair costs are provided to the profit / cost evaluation model 109 as forecast data necessary for obtaining the power generation cost. In addition, the power price model 108 predicts a power sale unit price for each contract content, and this prediction data is also given to the profit / cost evaluation model 109. Further, the generated power amount corresponding to the demand amount for each contract form predicted by the demand / supply evaluation model 104 is also given to the profit / cost evaluation model 109.

Therefore, the profit / cost evaluation model 109
Evaluates the power supply cost and profit plan based on the data provided from the models 105 to 109 described above.

Further, the optimum design model 11 is used for the processing of FIG.
6 is prepared. The optimum design model 116 receives the expected value of the power supply capacity evaluation obtained by the demand / supply evaluation model 104 and the expected value of the profit evaluation obtained by the profit / cost evaluation model 109, and the facility planning is performed from these predicted values. Calculate the index of. Specifically, the optimum design model 116
Sets the equipment plan as a variable variable and sets the evaluation function that is made up of the expected value of the power supply capacity evaluation and the expected value of the profit evaluation, and the index sets this evaluation function to the maximum (or minimum).
Is obtained as a solution to the mathematical programming problem. This makes it possible to obtain an optimized index for the power generation facility plan.

As described above, according to the present embodiment, it is possible to formulate a power generation facility plan in which the evaluation function created from the estimated values of the power supply capacity evaluation and the profit evaluation is optimized.

(Modification of Sixth Embodiment) It is also possible to construct a planning method for processing as shown in FIG.
This formulation method has a configuration in which the optimum design model 116 described in the sixth embodiment is added to the processing of the evaluation method described in the first embodiment. As a result, the evaluation function described above is added to the evaluation function described in the first embodiment.
It is also possible to add a demand forecast value considering a daily load change of electricity as a new term. Therefore, it is possible to formulate the power generation equipment plan in consideration of the daily load change in the optimized state.

Further, it is also possible to construct a formulating method for processing as shown in FIG. This formulation method has a configuration in which the optimum design model 116 described in the sixth embodiment is added to the processing of the evaluation method described in the second embodiment. As a result, the predicted value of the power supply capability evaluation considering the reliability of the power generation equipment described in the second embodiment described above can be added as a new term to the evaluation function described above. Therefore, a power generation facility plan considering the reliability of the power generation facility can be formulated in an optimized state.

Furthermore, it is possible to construct a formulating method for processing as shown in FIG. This formulation method has a configuration in which the optimum design model 116 described in the sixth embodiment is added to the processing of the evaluation method described in the third embodiment. As a result, the predicted value of the power supply capability evaluation considering the operational constraint of the power generation facility due to the environmental impact substance, which has been described in the third embodiment, may be added to the above-described evaluation function as a new term. it can. Therefore,
An environment-friendly power generation facility plan can be formulated in an optimized state.

Further, to the above-mentioned evaluation function, the predicted value of the competitiveness comparison with other companies explained in the fourth embodiment can be added as a new term. As a result, the equipment plan including the comparison of competitiveness with other companies can be formulated in the optimized state.

Furthermore, it is possible to construct a formulating method for processing as shown in FIG. This formulation method has a configuration in which the optimum design model 116 described in the sixth embodiment is added to the processing of the evaluation method described in the fifth embodiment. As a result, it is possible to add uncertainty to the predicted value of the electric power demand and the like, obtain the risks for the electric power supply evaluation, the profit evaluation, and the competitiveness evaluation, and add this risk to the evaluation function. Thus, as a solution to the mathematical programming problem, it is possible to formulate an equipment plan that considers the risk caused by the uncertainty of the predicted value.

Of course, it is also possible to appropriately combine and execute these modified examples.

[0079]

As described above, according to the power generation facility plan evaluation method of the present invention, the daily power load change is taken into consideration for the power demand forecast, and the reliability of the power generation facility for the power supply capacity evaluation is evaluated. Consideration of the impact on the environment for the assessment of the power supply capacity, and / or the comparison of the competitiveness with other companies for the forecast of power demand have been established. It is possible to provide a method for evaluating a power generation facility plan in consideration.

Further, since the process for considering the uncertainty of the information used for the evaluation of the power supply and the evaluation of the profit / cost is provided, it is necessary to provide the evaluation method of the power generation facility plan in consideration of the uncertainty of the forecast data. You can

Further, since the process for optimizing the evaluation result of the power generation facility plan is provided, it is possible to provide the method for formulating the power generation facility plan which is always created in the optimum state.

[Brief description of drawings]

FIG. 1 is an explanatory diagram illustrating a procedure of a power generation facility plan evaluation method according to a first embodiment of the present invention.

FIG. 2 is a schematic configuration diagram of a computer system capable of executing the power generation equipment plan evaluation method of the present invention.

FIG. 3 is an explanatory diagram illustrating a procedure of a method for evaluating a power generation facility plan according to the second embodiment of the present invention.

FIG. 4 is an explanatory diagram illustrating a procedure of a method for evaluating a power generation facility plan according to a third embodiment of the present invention.

FIG. 5 is an explanatory diagram illustrating a procedure of a method for evaluating a power generation facility plan according to a fourth embodiment of the present invention.

FIG. 6 is an explanatory diagram illustrating a procedure of a power generation facility plan evaluation method according to a fifth embodiment of the present invention.

FIG. 7 is a diagram showing an example of a demand forecasting model having uncertainty of forecasting, which is used in the fifth embodiment.

FIG. 8 is an explanatory diagram illustrating a procedure of a method for evaluating a power generation facility plan according to a sixth embodiment of the present invention.

FIG. 9 is an explanatory diagram illustrating a procedure of a method for formulating a power generation facility plan according to a modification of the sixth embodiment of the present invention.

FIG. 10 is an explanatory diagram illustrating a procedure of a method for formulating a power generation facility plan according to another modification of the sixth embodiment of the present invention.

FIG. 11 is an explanatory diagram illustrating a procedure of a method for formulating a power generation facility plan according to still another modification example of the sixth embodiment of the present invention.

FIG. 12 is an explanatory view illustrating a procedure of a method for formulating a power generation facility plan according to another modification of the sixth embodiment of the present invention.

FIG. 13 is an explanatory diagram illustrating a procedure of a conventional power generation facility plan evaluation method.

[Explanation of symbols]

10 computer system 11 CPU device 101 Regional Economic Model 102 Demand forecasting model 103, 103a Facility planning model 104 Supply / Demand Evaluation Model 105 Fuel Price Model 106 Expense model 107 Equipment repair cost model 108 Electricity price model 109 Profit / cost evaluation model 110 Demand forecast detailed model 111 Other power equipment load pattern model 112 Reliability evaluation model 113 Environmental Policy Model 114 Other company's power generation equipment model 115 Competitiveness evaluation model 116 Optimal design model 117 Demand forecasting model with uncertainty

Claims (12)

[Claims] 1. A power demand for a power generation facility is predicted, the demand power and the available power are compared to evaluate whether or not power can be supplied and the power generation amount, and the power generation amount and economic prediction information are obtained. In a method for evaluating a power generation facility plan for evaluating the profitability of a power generation business based on the power generation facility, the demand power prediction includes a process of considering a daily load change of the power generation facility. Evaluation method of power generation facility plan. 2. A power demand for a power generation facility is predicted, and the demand power and available power are compared to evaluate whether or not power can be supplied and the amount of power generated. In the method for evaluating a power generation facility plan for evaluating the profitability of a power generation business based on the power generation facility, the evaluation of the availability of power supply and the amount of power generation includes a process that considers the reliability of the power generation facility. Evaluation method of power generation facility plan. 3. A power demand for a power generation facility is predicted, the demand power and the available power are compared to evaluate whether or not power can be supplied and the power generation amount, and the power generation amount and economic prediction information are obtained. A method for evaluating a profitability of a power generation business based on the power generation facility based on a method for considering whether or not the power can be supplied and the amount of power that can be supplied in consideration of operating constraints of the power generation facility with respect to the environment. A method for evaluating a power generation facility plan, which includes: 4. A power demand for power generation equipment is predicted, and the demand power is compared with the available power to evaluate whether or not power can be supplied and the amount of power generated. A method for evaluating a power generation facility plan for evaluating the profitability of a power generation business based on the power generation facility, wherein the forecast of the demanded power includes a process of considering information for comparing competitiveness with other companies. . 5. The demand power for a power generation facility is predicted, and the demand power and the available power are compared to evaluate whether or not power can be supplied and the power generation amount, and the power generation amount and economic prediction information are obtained. In a method for evaluating a power generation facility plan for evaluating the profitability of a power generation business based on the power generation facility, a process of predicting the demand power in consideration of a daily load change of the power generation facility, competitiveness with other companies Processing for predicting the demand power in consideration of the comparison information, processing for evaluating whether or not the power can be supplied and the amount of power that can be supplied in consideration of the reliability of the power generation facility, and operation of the power generation facility related to the environment. The method for evaluating a power generation facility plan is characterized by including at least two processes out of the processes of evaluating whether or not the power can be supplied and the amount of power that can be supplied in consideration of the constraint. 6. The power generation facility plan evaluation method according to claim 1, wherein a model responsible for evaluating whether or not to supply the power and the amount of generated power is evaluated and the profitability of the power generation business is evaluated. The model to be taken is an evaluation method for a power generation facility plan, which is characterized by performing an evaluation considering the uncertainty of the information used for evaluation. 7. A power demand for a power generation facility is predicted, the demand power and the available power are compared to evaluate whether or not power can be supplied and the power generation amount, and the power generation amount and economic prediction information are obtained. In the method for formulating a power generation facility plan that evaluates the profitability of the power generation business based on the power generation facility, the power supply availability and the generated power amount evaluation result and the profitability evaluation result are optimized. A method of formulating a power generation facility plan, characterized in that an index for the construction plan of the power generation facility is created. 8. The method for formulating a power generation facility plan according to claim 7, wherein a process of predicting the demand power in consideration of a daily load change of the power generation facility and the reliability of the power generation facility are considered. Then, the process of evaluating whether or not the power can be supplied and the amount of power that can be supplied, and the process of evaluating whether the power can be supplied and the amount of power that can be supplied in consideration of the operational constraint of the power generation facility regarding the environment, A method for formulating a power generation facility plan, which includes at least one process. 9. The method for formulating a power generation facility plan according to claim 7, wherein the optimization process includes an evaluation result of availability of the power supply and an amount of generated power, an evaluation result of the profitability, and a comparison with other companies. A method for formulating a power generation facility plan, characterized by optimizing a competitiveness evaluation result to create an index for the construction plan of the power generation facility. 10. The method for formulating a power generation facility plan according to claim 7, wherein the evaluation of the availability of power supply, the amount of generated power, and the profitability of the power generation business are performed based on the uncertainty of information used for the evaluation. A method of formulating a power generation facility plan, which is characterized by being considered. 11. The computer predicts power demand for power generation equipment, compares the demand power with the available power, evaluates whether power can be supplied and the amount of power generated, and predicts the amount of power generated and economic efficiency. A program for executing a series of procedures for evaluating the profitability of a power generation business by the power generation facility based on the information, and a process of predicting the demand power in consideration of a daily load change of the power generation facility. , A process of predicting the demand power in consideration of comparison information of competitiveness with other companies, a process of evaluating availability of the power and an available power amount in consideration of reliability of the power generation facility, and an environment A program added with at least one of the processes of evaluating whether or not the power can be supplied and the amount of power that can be supplied in consideration of operational constraints of the power generation facility. 12. The computer predicts the power demand for the power generation facility, compares the demand power with the available power and evaluates whether or not power can be supplied and the power generated, and predicts the power generated and the economic efficiency. It is a program that executes a series of procedures for evaluating the profitability of a power generation business by the power generation facility based on information, and optimizes the availability of the power supply and the evaluation result of the amount of generated power and the evaluation result of the profitability. A program to which a process is added to generate an index for the construction plan of the power generation facility.