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CN113962101A - Reliability assessment method for new energy automobile comprehensive energy charging station - Google Patents

Reliability assessment method for new energy automobile comprehensive energy charging station Download PDF

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CN113962101A
CN113962101A CN202111258945.XA CN202111258945A CN113962101A CN 113962101 A CN113962101 A CN 113962101A CN 202111258945 A CN202111258945 A CN 202111258945A CN 113962101 A CN113962101 A CN 113962101A
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CN113962101B (en
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郑文迪
李怡馨
张敏
邵振国
王向杰
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Fuzhou University
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    • H02—GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
    • H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
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    • H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
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Abstract

The invention provides a reliability evaluation method for a comprehensive energy charging station of a new energy automobile, which comprises the following steps of; the method comprises the following steps: acquiring relevant parameters required by reliability evaluation of the comprehensive charging station, including equipment capacity, the number of users in a service area and the like, and acquiring local annual distributed power supply electric energy output according to historical data; step two: acquiring the charging and hydrogen charging requirements of BEV and HFCV for one day based on a BEV/HFCV charging model; the hydrogen demand of the HFCV is determined according to the number of vehicles and a charging protocol; the BEV charging demand is determined according to the BEV number and BEV running rule data on the same day; solving an optimized scheduling model of the comprehensive energy charging station to obtain and record the energy charging demand shortage condition of the current day; checking whether the total days reach the upper limit of the reliability evaluation total investigation time; if the result is reached, the next step is carried out, otherwise, the step two is returned; step five, comprehensively evaluating the relevant data in the total investigation time by reliability, and calculating a reliability index; the invention can make the reliability evaluation result more accurate.

Description

一种新能源汽车综合充能站可靠性评估方法A reliability evaluation method for a comprehensive charging station for new energy vehicles

技术领域technical field

本发明涉及交通设施技术领域，尤其是一种新能源汽车综合充能站可靠性评估方法。The invention relates to the technical field of transportation facilities, in particular to a reliability evaluation method for a comprehensive charging station for new energy vehicles.

背景技术Background technique

新能源汽车的广泛应用是解决化石能源短缺和改善环境污染问题的重要途径。随着技术的不断完善和基础设施服务的落实，新能源汽车的市场占有率将不断提高。电池电动汽车(Battery Electric Vehicle，BEV)发展时间较长，技术更加成熟，但充电时间长，受到电池制造技术的限制，续航能力有限；氢燃料电池汽车(Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicle，HFCV)充氢所需的时间很短，续航能力强，但发展较慢，目前并未得到大范围普及。在未来很长一段时间内，BEV和HFCV将并存于市场。为了满足BEV和HFCV不同形式能源的充能需求，提出了新能源汽车综合充能站的概念。在现有BEV充电站提供充电服务的基础上，配备电-氢能量转换设备及储氢设备等，同时为BEV和HFCV提供充能服务，并将光伏、风电等分布式电源作为综合充能站的主要的电力输入，减少对公共电网的依赖以及促进可再生能源消纳。综合充能站作为新能源汽车使用最重要的基础设施，其供能可靠性是汽车用户关注的一大重点，也是充能站规划建设需要考虑的重要因素。因此，对综合充能站进行可靠性评估具有重要意义。The wide application of new energy vehicles is an important way to solve the shortage of fossil energy and improve environmental pollution. With the continuous improvement of technology and the implementation of infrastructure services, the market share of new energy vehicles will continue to increase. Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) has a long development time and more mature technology, but it takes a long time to charge, is limited by battery manufacturing technology, and has limited endurance; Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicle (HFCV) The time required is very short and the battery life is strong, but the development is slow, and it has not been widely popularized at present. For a long time to come, BEV and HFCV will coexist in the market. In order to meet the charging needs of different forms of energy from BEV and HFCV, the concept of a comprehensive charging station for new energy vehicles is proposed. On the basis of the charging service provided by the existing BEV charging station, it is equipped with electric-hydrogen energy conversion equipment and hydrogen storage equipment, etc. At the same time, it provides charging services for BEV and HFCV, and uses distributed power sources such as photovoltaic and wind power as a comprehensive charging station. the main electricity input, reducing reliance on the public grid and promoting renewable energy consumption. The comprehensive charging station is the most important infrastructure for the use of new energy vehicles, and its energy supply reliability is a major focus of automobile users, and it is also an important factor to be considered in the planning and construction of charging stations. Therefore, it is of great significance to evaluate the reliability of the comprehensive charging station.

当前针对新能源汽车综合充能站的研究主要集中在充能站优化运行及汽车快充对配电网的稳定运行带来的冲击影响。已有研究通过设置惩罚系数将未能提供电能和氢气视为影响充能站预期收益的惩罚，优化电/氢混合充能站的运行，但未考虑充能需求缺供对车主充能体验的影响，从而影响车主的充能行为以及充能站的可靠性；针对电动汽车快速充电带来的冲击问题，也有研究采用序贯蒙特卡罗仿真等方法，计及充电站故障状态对含有充电站的配电网进行可靠性评估，但并未对充电站本身的可靠性评估有深入的研究。The current research on the comprehensive charging station for new energy vehicles mainly focuses on the optimal operation of the charging station and the impact of fast charging on the stable operation of the distribution network. Existing studies have considered the failure to provide electricity and hydrogen as a penalty that affects the expected revenue of the charging station by setting a penalty coefficient, and optimized the operation of the electric/hydrogen hybrid charging station, but did not consider the lack of charging demand and supply to the owner's charging experience. In order to affect the charging behavior of the car owner and the reliability of the charging station; for the impact problem caused by the rapid charging of electric vehicles, some methods such as sequential Monte Carlo simulation have also been used to consider the fault state of the charging station. The reliability evaluation of the distribution network is carried out, but there is no in-depth research on the reliability evaluation of the charging station itself.

本发明针对上述不足，提出了一种计及车主体验的综合充能站可靠性评估方法。本发明考虑车主体验对车主行为以及充能站充能需求的影响，对综合充能站的供能可靠性进行评估，使可靠性评估结果更加准确。Aiming at the above shortcomings, the present invention proposes a comprehensive charging station reliability evaluation method that takes into account the vehicle owner's experience. The present invention evaluates the energy supply reliability of the comprehensive charging station by considering the influence of the vehicle owner's experience on the vehicle owner's behavior and the charging demand of the charging station, so that the reliability assessment result is more accurate.

发明内容SUMMARY OF THE INVENTION

本发明提出一种新能源汽车综合充能站可靠性评估方法，考虑车主体验对车主行为以及充能站充能需求的影响，对综合充能站的供能可靠性进行评估，使可靠性评估结果更加准确。The invention proposes a method for evaluating the reliability of a comprehensive charging station for new energy vehicles, which takes into account the influence of the owner's experience on the behavior of the vehicle owner and the charging demand of the charging station, and evaluates the reliability of the comprehensive charging station's energy supply, so that the reliability evaluation can be achieved. The results are more accurate.

本发明采用以下技术方案。The present invention adopts the following technical solutions.

一种新能源汽车综合充能站可靠性评估方法，可评估充能站对汽车充能能力的可靠性，所述综合充能站用于对BEV充电和对HFCV充氢；BEV为电池电动汽车；HFCV为氢燃料电池汽车；所述评估方法中，对BEV充电的电力来自于公共电网耦合点或综合充能站内的燃料电池；对HFCV充氢的氢气由电解池制备，电解池制氢储存于储氢罐内；评估方法包括以下步骤；A reliability evaluation method for a comprehensive charging station for new energy vehicles, which can evaluate the reliability of the charging capacity of the charging station for vehicles, and the comprehensive charging station is used for charging BEV and charging hydrogen for HFCV; BEV is a battery electric vehicle ; HFCV is a hydrogen fuel cell vehicle; in the evaluation method, the electricity for charging the BEV comes from the public grid coupling point or the fuel cell in the integrated charging station; the hydrogen for charging the HFCV is prepared by the electrolytic cell, and the electrolytic cell produces hydrogen for storage in a hydrogen storage tank; the evaluation method includes the following steps;

步骤一：获取综合充能站可靠性评估所需的相关参数，包括设备容量、服务区域内用户数量等，并根据历史数据获取当地的年分布式电源电能出力；Step 1: Obtain the relevant parameters required for the reliability assessment of the comprehensive charging station, including the equipment capacity, the number of users in the service area, etc., and obtain the local annual distributed power output according to historical data;

步骤二：基于BEV/HFCV充能模型获取BEV、HFCV一天的充电、充氢需求；HFCV的氢气需求根据其车辆数量及充氢协议确定；BEV充电需求根据车辆数量估计模型确定的当天BEV数目以及采用拉丁超立方采样进行模拟满足的BEV行驶规律数据确定；Step 2: Obtain the charging and hydrogen charging requirements of BEV and HFCV for one day based on the BEV/HFCV charging model; the hydrogen demand of HFCV is determined according to the number of vehicles and the hydrogen charging agreement; the charging demand of BEV is determined according to the number of BEVs on the day determined by the vehicle number estimation model and Using Latin hypercube sampling to determine the BEV driving law data satisfied by simulation;

步骤三、求解综合充能站优化调度模型，得到当天的充能需求缺供情况并记录；Step 3: Solve the optimal scheduling model of the integrated charging station, obtain the current shortage of charging demand and record it;

步骤四、检查总天数是否达到可靠性评估总考察时间上限；如果达到则进入下一步，否则返回步骤二；Step 4. Check whether the total number of days reaches the upper limit of the total inspection time for reliability assessment; if it is reached, go to the next step, otherwise return to step 2;

步骤五、综合可靠性评估总考察时间内的充能需求缺供情况相关数据，计算综合充能站可靠性指标。Step 5. Comprehensive reliability assessment Calculate the reliability index of the comprehensive charging station based on the data related to the shortage of charging demand during the total inspection time.

步骤三中的求解综合充能站优化调度模型的方法，包括针对综合充能站的电解池建模方法、储氢罐建模方法、燃料电池建模方法；The method for solving the optimal scheduling model of the integrated charging station in step 3 includes an electrolytic cell modeling method, a hydrogen storage tank modeling method, and a fuel cell modeling method for the integrated charging station;

所述电解池建模方法为：电解池用于实现电解水制氢过程，消耗电能产生氢气，其模型及约束条件表达式如下：The electrolytic cell modeling method is as follows: the electrolytic cell is used to realize the process of electrolyzing water to produce hydrogen, and consumes electric energy to generate hydrogen, and the model and constraint conditions are expressed as follows:

Figure BDA0003324935560000031
Figure BDA0003324935560000031

Figure BDA0003324935560000032
Figure BDA0003324935560000032

其中ηelz为电解槽的效率，Pt elz、mt elz分别表示在t时段消耗的电功率及产生的氢气质量；Δt为每个时段的时长，设为1个小时；LHV为氢气的低热值，是个常数；

Figure BDA0003324935560000033
和P elz是电解池消耗的最大电功率和最小电功率；where η elz is the efficiency of the electrolyzer, P t elz and m t elz represent the electric power consumed and the quality of hydrogen produced in the t period, respectively; Δt is the duration of each period, set to 1 hour; LHV is the low calorific value of hydrogen , is a constant;
Figure BDA0003324935560000033
and P elz are the maximum and minimum electrical power consumed by the electrolytic cell;

所述储氢罐建模的方法为：储氢罐储存来自电解池电解水产生的氢气，用于氢燃料电池汽车氢气补给或供燃料电池使用以转换为电能，储氢罐中储存的氢气量可如下式表示：The method for modeling the hydrogen storage tank is as follows: the hydrogen storage tank stores the hydrogen generated by the electrolysis of water in the electrolytic cell, which is used for hydrogen replenishment of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles or used by the fuel cell to convert into electric energy, and the amount of hydrogen stored in the hydrogen storage tank It can be expressed as follows:

Figure BDA0003324935560000034
Figure BDA0003324935560000034

储氢罐中储存的氢气量取决于上一时段末罐中所含氢气量

Figure BDA0003324935560000035
与该时段内产生和消耗的氢气量
Figure BDA0003324935560000036
在任意时刻，储氢罐中的氢气含量不能超过储氢罐容量的限制，即应满足：The amount of hydrogen stored in the hydrogen storage tank depends on the amount of hydrogen in the tank at the end of the previous period
Figure BDA0003324935560000035
and the amount of hydrogen produced and consumed during the period
Figure BDA0003324935560000036
At any time, the hydrogen content in the hydrogen storage tank cannot exceed the capacity limit of the hydrogen storage tank, that is, it should meet:

Figure BDA0003324935560000037
Figure BDA0003324935560000037

所述燃料电池建模方法为：燃料电池消耗部分来自储氢罐的氢气产生电能，与直接来自公共耦合点的电能一起供应BEv车辆的充电需求；其模型表达式如下：The fuel cell modeling method is as follows: the fuel cell consumes part of the hydrogen from the hydrogen storage tank to generate electric energy, and supplies the charging demand of the BEv vehicle together with the electric energy directly from the point of common coupling; the model expression is as follows:

Figure BDA0003324935560000038
Figure BDA0003324935560000038

Figure BDA0003324935560000039
Figure BDA0003324935560000039

其中，ηfc为燃料电池的工作效率，

Figure BDA0003324935560000041
为t时段燃料电池产生的电能和消耗的氢气；
Figure BDA0003324935560000042
和P fc分别是燃料电池发电功率的上下限。where η fc is the working efficiency of the fuel cell,
Figure BDA0003324935560000041
is the electricity generated by the fuel cell and the hydrogen consumed by the fuel cell in period t;
Figure BDA0003324935560000042
and P fc are the upper and lower limits of fuel cell power generation, respectively.

所述BEV/HFCV充能模型的建模方法为：BEV采用无序充电模式，假设一天中车辆的行驶里程结束时间就是接入充能站开始充电的时间，则单辆BEVi的充电可建模为：The modeling method of the BEV/HFCV charging model is as follows: the BEV adopts the disordered charging mode. Assuming that the end time of the vehicle's mileage in a day is the time when the charging station is connected to the charging station, the charging of a single BEVi can be modeled. for:

Figure BDA0003324935560000043
Figure BDA0003324935560000043

Figure BDA0003324935560000044
Figure BDA0003324935560000044

Figure BDA0003324935560000045
Figure BDA0003324935560000045

其中，li为BEVi的日行驶里程，Ehkm为每百公里耗电量，ηBEV为BEV充电效率，Ei BEV是BEVi充满电的电力需求；

Figure BDA0003324935560000046
为t时段BEVi的充电功率，
Figure BDA0003324935560000047
为最大充电功率，假设无序充电模式下以最大充电功率对车辆进行充电直到充满；
Figure BDA0003324935560000048
为BEVi充满电所需的时长，
Figure BDA0003324935560000049
分别为充电开始和结束时间；Among them, l i is the daily mileage of the BEV i , E hkm is the power consumption per 100 kilometers, η BEV is the charging efficiency of the BEV, and E i BEV is the power demand of the fully charged BEV i ;
Figure BDA0003324935560000046
is the charging power of BEV i in period t,
Figure BDA0003324935560000047
is the maximum charging power, assuming that the vehicle is charged at the maximum charging power in the disordered charging mode until fully charged;
Figure BDA0003324935560000048
How long it takes to fully charge the BEV i ,
Figure BDA0003324935560000049
are the charging start and end times, respectively;

基于单辆BEVi的充电模型，可以得到充能站BEV充电需要的电功率为：Based on the charging model of a single BEV i , the electric power required for BEV charging at the charging station can be obtained as:

公式十一；formula eleven;

其中，

Figure BDA00033249355600000410
为t时刻BEV需要的充电功率，Nt，BEV为该时刻接入充能站充电的BEV数量；in,
Figure BDA00033249355600000410
is the charging power required by the BEV at time t, N t, and BEV is the number of BEVs charged at the charging station at this time;

所述HFCV充氢所需的时间很短，认为每辆HFCV都可以在一个时段内完成氢气补给，则在t时段充能站HFCV充氢需要的氢气质量为：The time required for hydrogen charging of the HFCV is very short, and it is considered that each HFCV can complete the hydrogen supply in a period of time, then the hydrogen quality required for the HFCV charging of the charging station in the t period is:

Figure BDA0003324935560000051
Figure BDA0003324935560000051

其中，

Figure BDA0003324935560000052
为单辆HFCVi需要的氢气质量，Nt，HFCV为该时段在充能站需要充氢的HFCV数量。in,
Figure BDA0003324935560000052
is the hydrogen mass required by a single HFCV i , N t, and HFCV is the quantity of HFCV that needs to be charged with hydrogen at the charging station during this period.

所述评估方法中，当所述HFCV为行程相对固定的公共汽车或运输货车时，采用协议充氢模式，与HFCV用户签署充氢协议按固定需要为其充能，当根据优化调度结果充能站可能无法完全满足充氢需要时，提前告知车主并支付被削减的氢气量对应售价的一半作为补偿的违约金。In the evaluation method, when the HFCV is a bus or transport truck with a relatively fixed itinerary, the protocol hydrogen charging mode is adopted, and a hydrogen charging agreement is signed with the HFCV user to charge it according to fixed needs. When the station may not be able to fully meet the needs of hydrogen charging, the owner will be notified in advance and half of the price corresponding to the reduced hydrogen volume will be paid as a liquidated damages.

所述综合充能站优化调度模型中，以一天为一个调度周期，对充能站进行优化调度，优化其运行过程并记录相应的充能需求缺供数据，作为可靠性评估依据；假设可靠性评估总考察时间内共有D天，对于任意一天d，计及充能需求削减，其优化调度的目标函数如下所示，In the comprehensive charging station optimization scheduling model, one day is used as a scheduling cycle to optimize the scheduling of the charging station, optimize its operation process, and record the corresponding charging demand and supply data as a basis for reliability evaluation; assuming reliability There are D days in the total inspection time of the evaluation. For any day d, taking into account the reduction of the charging demand, the objective function of the optimal scheduling is as follows:

Figure BDA0003324935560000053
Figure BDA0003324935560000053

其中，T为一天内的时段数，ΩDG为分布式电源的集合；R为BEV和HFCV所有充能需要对应的收入，EP、HP为单位电能和氢气的售价；C1为分布式电源和电网购电成本，其中

Figure BDA0003324935560000061
为分布式电源和电网对充能站的实际供电功率，CDGi、
Figure BDA0003324935560000062
为对应的电能成本单价；C2为由于充能需求缺供而损失的收入，
Figure BDA0003324935560000063
分别为t时段缺供的电能和氢气量；C3为根据充氢协议向HFCV车主支付的违约金；即综合充能站优化调度模型中有下列公式；Among them, T is the number of time periods in a day, Ω DG is the collection of distributed power sources; R is the corresponding income of all charging needs of BEV and HFCV, EP and HP are the selling price per unit of electric energy and hydrogen; C 1 is the distributed power source and grid electricity purchase costs, of which
Figure BDA0003324935560000061
is the actual power supply of distributed power and grid to charging stations, C DGi ,
Figure BDA0003324935560000062
is the corresponding unit price of electric energy cost; C 2 is the income lost due to the shortage of charging demand,
Figure BDA0003324935560000063
C 3 is the liquidated damages paid to HFCV owners according to the hydrogen charging agreement; that is, the optimal scheduling model of the comprehensive charging station has the following formulas;

Figure BDA0003324935560000064
Figure BDA0003324935560000064

Figure BDA0003324935560000065
Figure BDA0003324935560000065

Figure BDA0003324935560000066
Figure BDA0003324935560000066

Figure BDA0003324935560000067
Figure BDA0003324935560000067

Figure BDA0003324935560000068
Figure BDA0003324935560000068

Figure BDA0003324935560000069
Figure BDA0003324935560000069

Figure BDA00033249355600000610
Figure BDA00033249355600000610

Figure BDA00033249355600000611
Figure BDA00033249355600000611

Figure BDA00033249355600000612
Figure BDA00033249355600000612

如公式十四至公式十五所示，综合充能站实际消耗的分布式电源电能不能超过其实际出力，从电网购电并经公共电网耦合点的输入功率也受到输电线路容量限制；As shown in Equation 14 to Equation 15, the actual consumption of distributed power by the integrated charging station cannot exceed its actual output, and the input power purchased from the grid and passed through the coupling point of the public grid is also limited by the capacity of the transmission line;

如公式十六至公式十七所示，BEV和HFCV充能需求的缺供量不能大于其实际充能需求；As shown in Equation 16 to Equation 17, the shortage of BEV and HFCV charging demand cannot be greater than their actual charging demand;

如公式十八所示，综合充能站电力消耗的总和均用于充能站内电解池电制氢和直接给BEV充电；As shown in Equation 18, the total power consumption of the integrated charging station is used to produce hydrogen from the electrolytic cells in the charging station and directly charge the BEV;

如公式十九所示，实际供给BEV的功率等于燃料电池出力及部分来自公共耦合点的电能

Figure BDA0003324935560000071
总和；As shown in Equation 19, the power actually supplied to the BEV is equal to the fuel cell output and part of the power from the point of common coupling
Figure BDA0003324935560000071
sum;

如公式二十所示，储氢罐储存的氢气均来自电解池电解水所得；As shown in Equation 20, the hydrogen stored in the hydrogen storage tank comes from the electrolysis of water in the electrolytic cell;

如公式二十一所示，储氢罐储存的氢气可直接供应给HFCV，也可以通过燃料电池转换为电能；As shown in Equation 21, the hydrogen stored in the hydrogen storage tank can be directly supplied to the HFCV, and can also be converted into electricity through the fuel cell;

如公式二十二所示，综合充能站优化调度模型设置一天中初始时刻储气罐内氢气量最低值要求

Figure BDA0003324935560000072
在一天结束时储氢罐中的氢气量
Figure BDA0003324935560000073
立不少于该值。As shown in Equation 22, the optimal scheduling model of the comprehensive charging station sets the minimum requirement for the amount of hydrogen in the gas storage tank at the initial moment of the day
Figure BDA0003324935560000072
The amount of hydrogen in the storage tank at the end of the day
Figure BDA0003324935560000073
not less than this value.

步骤五中的计算综合充能站可靠性指标，是基于车辆充能需求缺供情况，建立综合充能站可靠性指标体系，用于评估其供能可靠性，有以下公式；The calculation of the reliability index of the comprehensive charging station in step 5 is to establish a reliability index system of the comprehensive charging station based on the shortage of vehicle charging demand and supply, which is used to evaluate the reliability of its energy supply, and has the following formula;

Figure BDA0003324935560000074
Figure BDA0003324935560000074

Figure BDA0003324935560000075
Figure BDA0003324935560000075

Figure BDA0003324935560000076
Figure BDA0003324935560000076

Figure BDA0003324935560000077
Figure BDA0003324935560000077

Figure BDA0003324935560000078
Figure BDA0003324935560000078

Figure BDA0003324935560000079
Figure BDA0003324935560000079

如公式二十三至公式二十八所示，在可靠性评估总考察时间内共计有D·T个时段，将上述每天优化调度运行结果中的充能需求削减相关数据分别记录为

Figure BDA0003324935560000081
PBDS和PHDS表示BEV和HFCV充能需求被削减的概率；PEDS代表充能站削减新能源汽车充能需求的概率；EBDNS和EHDNS分别表示BEV和HFCV的期望缺供电量和氢气量，EEDNS表示期望缺供能量，即EBDNS和EHDNS的总和，EBDNS、EHDNS、EEDNS均取日期望值；公式二十三至公式二十八中，氢气量均结合氢气低热值换算为电功率的单位。As shown in Equation 23 to Equation 28, there are D·T periods in total during the total inspection time of the reliability assessment, and the data related to the reduction of the charging demand in the above-mentioned daily optimal scheduling operation results are respectively recorded as
Figure BDA0003324935560000081
PBDS and PHDS represent the probability that the charging demand of BEV and HFCV will be reduced; PEDS represents the probability that the charging station will reduce the charging demand of new energy vehicles; EBDNS and EHDNS represent the expected power shortage and hydrogen volume of BEV and HFCV, respectively, and EEDNS represents the expectation The lack of energy supply is the sum of EBDNS and EHDNS. EBDNS, EHDNS and EEDNS all take the daily expected value; in formula 23 to formula 28, the amount of hydrogen is converted into the unit of electric power combined with the low calorific value of hydrogen.

当综合充电站与充氢需求固定的HFCV签订了充氢协议，且有如果发生缺供氢气则补偿的约定，则步骤二中的车辆数量估计模型中，仅考虑充电需求削减对BEV车主选择充电站的影响，引入心理物理学领域W-F定律建立计及车主充电体验影响的车辆数量估计模型，根据近几天的充电需求缺供情况估计当天的BEV车辆数，具体方法为：When the integrated charging station has signed a hydrogen charging agreement with the HFCV with fixed hydrogen charging demand, and there is an agreement on compensation if there is a shortage of hydrogen supply, in the vehicle quantity estimation model in step 2, only the reduction of charging demand is considered to select charging for BEV owners The W-F law in the field of psychophysics is introduced to establish a vehicle number estimation model that takes into account the impact of vehicle owners' charging experience, and the number of BEV vehicles on the day is estimated according to the shortage of charging demand in recent days. The specific methods are as follows:

在新能源汽车综合充能站所在位置的服务区域内，可能服务到的BEV数量用Nsum表示，把这些BEV的车主分为固定用户、一般用户和游离用户，数量分别表示为Nl、Ns和Nr；固定用户指的是固定或长期在该充能站充电消费、忠诚度高的客户群体；一般用户则指会受到近期充电需求缺供情况影响有一定概率不在该充能站充电的客户群体；游离用户指首次或偶尔在该充能站消费，但尚未稳定的客户群体，则在任一天d内，选择该充能站充电的BEV数量可表示为：In the service area where the comprehensive charging station for new energy vehicles is located, the number of BEVs that may be served is represented by N sum , and the owners of these BEVs are divided into fixed users, general users and free users, and the numbers are represented as N l , N s and N r ; Fixed users refer to the customer groups who charge at the charging station for a fixed or long-term consumption and have high loyalty; general users refer to the fact that they will be affected by the recent shortage of charging demand and have a certain probability not to charge at the charging station. Free users refer to the customers who consume at this charging station for the first time or occasionally, but have not yet stabilized. In any day d, the number of BEVs that choose to charge at this charging station can be expressed as:

Figure BDA0003324935560000083
Figure BDA0003324935560000083

Figure BDA0003324935560000082
Figure BDA0003324935560000082

Figure BDA0003324935560000091
Figure BDA0003324935560000091

如公式二十九所示，在第d天全天，充能站共有Nd，BEVs辆BEV在此充电，其中，固定用户数量Nd，l稳定，即为Nl；游离用户数量波动较大，因此认为服从均匀分布；一般用户的数量通过引入W-F定律进行估计；W-F定律为心理学领域上能定量地建立人的反应与客观刺激量之间的函数关系的定律；As shown in Equation 29, on the dth day, there is a total of N d at the charging station, and BEVs BEVs are charged here. Among them, the number of fixed users N d and l is stable, which is N l ; the number of free users fluctuates more than Therefore, it is considered to obey the uniform distribution; the number of general users is estimated by introducing the WF law; the WF law is a law in the field of psychology that can quantitatively establish the functional relationship between human response and objective stimulus;

如公式三十所示，根据W-F定律，一般用户在当天拒绝选择该充能站的概率为sd，

Figure BDA0003324935560000092
为最小可觉差，k0是韦伯系数，s0是刺激常数；As shown in Equation 30, according to the WF law, the probability that a general user refuses to select the charging station on the day is s d ,
Figure BDA0003324935560000092
is the minimum perceptible difference, k 0 is the Weber coefficient, and s 0 is the stimulus constant;

如公式三十一所示，

Figure BDA0003324935560000093
为刺激量，即第d天之前的n天内充电需求缺供的总体情况，PBDS1i为一天内被削减的充电需求占比。As shown in Equation 31,
Figure BDA0003324935560000093
In order to stimulate the amount, that is, the overall situation of the shortage of charging demand in the n days before the d day, PBDS1 i is the proportion of charging demand that is reduced in one day.

步骤二中，假设所有车辆每天最多接入综合充能站充电一次，BEV行驶规律数据的分布由实际统计数据经极大似然估计方法拟合得到；In step 2, it is assumed that all vehicles are connected to the integrated charging station for charging at most once a day, and the distribution of the BEV driving law data is obtained by fitting the actual statistical data through the maximum likelihood estimation method;

BEV行驶规律数据的分布如下述公式三十二、公式三十三所示，The distribution of BEV driving law data is shown in the following formulas 32 and 33.

Figure BDA0003324935560000094
Figure BDA0003324935560000094

车辆充电开始时间符合公式三十二中所示分布，其中The vehicle charging start time follows the distribution shown in Equation 32, where

Figure BDA0003324935560000095
Figure BDA0003324935560000095

Figure BDA0003324935560000096
Figure BDA0003324935560000096

车辆日行驶里程符合公式三十三所示分布，其中The daily mileage of the vehicle conforms to the distribution shown in Equation 33, where

Figure BDA0003324935560000101
Figure BDA0003324935560000101

本发明针对新能源汽车综合充能站可靠性评估需考虑车主充电体验的影响，引入韦伯费希纳定律，计及充能站未能提供的电能和氢气对车主行为及充能站负荷的影响，进而对新能源汽车综合充能站的可靠性进行评估，具有以下优点：Aiming at the reliability evaluation of the comprehensive charging station for new energy vehicles, the present invention needs to consider the influence of the vehicle owner's charging experience, introduces Weber Fechner's law, and takes into account the influence of the electric energy and hydrogen that cannot be provided by the charging station on the behavior of the vehicle owner and the load of the charging station , and then evaluate the reliability of the comprehensive charging station for new energy vehicles, which has the following advantages:

(1)本发明通过建立新能源汽车综合充能站模型、BEV/HFCV充能模型，能以收益最大化为目标函数建立优化调度模型，同时在评估方法中考虑了车辆充能需求的削减，并建立可靠性指标体系，能基于以年为单位较长时间的调度结果评估新能源汽车综合充能站供能可靠性。(1) The present invention can establish an optimal scheduling model with the objective function of maximizing revenue by establishing a comprehensive charging station model for new energy vehicles and a BEV/HFCV charging model, and at the same time, the reduction of vehicle charging requirements is considered in the evaluation method, And establish a reliability index system, which can evaluate the energy supply reliability of the new energy vehicle comprehensive charging station based on the long-term scheduling results in units of years.

(2)本发明根据车辆充能需求缺供情况，计及其对车主充能体验的影响，引入韦伯费纳希(W-F)定律建立数量模型，能估算每天接入充能站充能的车辆数目，考虑车主体验对车主行为以及充能站充能需求的影响。(2) According to the shortage of vehicle charging demand, the present invention introduces the Weber Feinersch (W-F) law to establish a quantitative model, taking into account its impact on the vehicle owner's charging experience, and can estimate the vehicles that are charged at the charging station every day. number, taking into account the impact of car owner experience on car owner behavior and charging station charging needs.

(3)本发明基于上述数量模型及车辆接入时刻和行驶里程概率密度函数等信息得到日前预测数据，求解优化调度模型并计算综合充能站可靠性指标，能使可靠性评估结果更加准确。(3) The present invention obtains day-ahead prediction data based on the above-mentioned quantity model and information such as vehicle access time and mileage probability density function, solves the optimal scheduling model and calculates the reliability index of the comprehensive charging station, which can make the reliability evaluation result more accurate.

附图说明Description of drawings

下面结合附图和具体实施方式对本发明进一步详细的说明：The present invention will be described in further detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and specific embodiments:

附图1是综合充能站的原理示意图；Accompanying drawing 1 is the principle schematic diagram of the comprehensive charging station;

附图2是本发明的流程示意图。Figure 2 is a schematic flow chart of the present invention.

具体实施方式Detailed ways

如图所示，一种新能源汽车综合充能站可靠性评估方法，可评估充能站对汽车充能能力的可靠性，所述综合充能站用于对BEV充电和对HFCV充氢；BEV为电池电动汽车；HFCV为氢燃料电池汽车；所述评估方法中，对BEV充电的电力来自于公共电网耦合点或综合充能站内的燃料电池；对HFCV充氢的氢气由电解池制备，电解池制氢储存于储氢罐内；评估方法包括以下步骤；As shown in the figure, a reliability evaluation method for a comprehensive charging station for new energy vehicles, which can evaluate the reliability of the charging ability of the charging station for vehicles, and the comprehensive charging station is used for charging BEVs and charging hydrogen for HFCVs; BEV is a battery electric vehicle; HFCV is a hydrogen fuel cell vehicle; in the evaluation method, the power for charging the BEV comes from the public grid coupling point or the fuel cell in the integrated charging station; the hydrogen for charging the HFCV is prepared by the electrolytic cell, The hydrogen produced by the electrolytic cell is stored in the hydrogen storage tank; the evaluation method includes the following steps;

步骤一：获取综合充能站可靠性评估所需的相关参数，包括设备容量、服务区域内用户数量等，并根据历史数据获取当地的年分布式电源电能出力；Step 1: Obtain the relevant parameters required for the reliability assessment of the comprehensive charging station, including the equipment capacity, the number of users in the service area, etc., and obtain the local annual distributed power output according to historical data;

步骤二：基于BEV/HFCV充能模型获取BEV、HFCV一天的充电、充氢需求；HFCV的氢气需求根据其车辆数量及充氢协议确定；BEV充电需求根据车辆数量估计模型确定的当天BEV数目以及采用拉丁超立方采样进行模拟满足的BEV行驶规律数据确定；Step 2: Obtain the charging and hydrogen charging requirements of BEV and HFCV for one day based on the BEV/HFCV charging model; the hydrogen demand of HFCV is determined according to the number of vehicles and the hydrogen charging agreement; the charging demand of BEV is determined according to the number of BEVs on the day determined by the vehicle number estimation model and Using Latin hypercube sampling to determine the BEV driving law data satisfied by simulation;

步骤三、求解综合充能站优化调度模型，得到当天的充能需求缺供情况并记录；Step 3: Solve the optimal scheduling model of the integrated charging station, obtain the current shortage of charging demand and record it;

步骤四、检查总天数是否达到可靠性评估总考察时间上限；如果达到则进入下一步，否则返回步骤二；Step 4. Check whether the total number of days reaches the upper limit of the total inspection time for reliability assessment; if it is reached, go to the next step, otherwise return to step 2;

步骤五、综合可靠性评估总考察时间内的充能需求缺供情况相关数据，计算综合充能站可靠性指标。Step 5. Comprehensive reliability assessment Calculate the reliability index of the comprehensive charging station based on the data related to the shortage of charging demand during the total inspection time.

步骤三中的求解综合充能站优化调度模型的方法，包括针对综合充能站的电解池建模方法、储氢罐建模方法、燃料电池建模方法；The method for solving the optimal scheduling model of the integrated charging station in step 3 includes an electrolytic cell modeling method, a hydrogen storage tank modeling method, and a fuel cell modeling method for the integrated charging station;

所述电解池建模方法为：电解池用于实现电解水制氢过程，消耗电能产生氢气，其模型及约束条件表达式如下：The electrolytic cell modeling method is as follows: the electrolytic cell is used to realize the process of electrolyzing water to produce hydrogen, and consumes electric energy to generate hydrogen, and the model and constraint conditions are expressed as follows:

Figure BDA0003324935560000111
Figure BDA0003324935560000111

Figure BDA0003324935560000112
Figure BDA0003324935560000112

其中ηelz为电解槽的效率，Pt elz、mt elz分别表示在t时段消耗的电功率及产生的氢气质量；Δt为每个时段的时长，设为1个小时；LHV为氢气的低热值，是个常数；

Figure BDA0003324935560000113
和P elz是电解池消耗的最大电功率和最小电功率；where η elz is the efficiency of the electrolyzer, P t elz and m t elz represent the electric power consumed and the quality of hydrogen produced in the t period, respectively; Δt is the duration of each period, set to 1 hour; LHV is the low calorific value of hydrogen , is a constant;
Figure BDA0003324935560000113
and P elz are the maximum and minimum electrical power consumed by the electrolytic cell;

所述储氢罐建模的方法为：储氢罐储存来自电解池电解水产生的氢气，用于氢燃料电池汽车氢气补给或供燃料电池使用以转换为电能，储氢罐中储存的氢气量可如下式表示：The method for modeling the hydrogen storage tank is as follows: the hydrogen storage tank stores the hydrogen generated by the electrolysis of water in the electrolytic cell, which is used for hydrogen replenishment of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles or used by the fuel cell to convert into electric energy, and the amount of hydrogen stored in the hydrogen storage tank It can be expressed as follows:

Figure BDA0003324935560000114
Figure BDA0003324935560000114

储氢罐中储存的氢气量取决于上一时段末罐中所含氢气量

Figure BDA0003324935560000121
与该时段内产生和消耗的氢气量
Figure BDA0003324935560000122
在任意时刻，储氢罐中的氢气含量不能超过储氢罐容量的限制，即应满足：The amount of hydrogen stored in the hydrogen storage tank depends on the amount of hydrogen in the tank at the end of the previous period
Figure BDA0003324935560000121
and the amount of hydrogen produced and consumed during the period
Figure BDA0003324935560000122
At any time, the hydrogen content in the hydrogen storage tank cannot exceed the capacity limit of the hydrogen storage tank, that is, it should meet:

Figure BDA0003324935560000123
Figure BDA0003324935560000123

所述燃料电池建模方法为：燃料电池消耗部分来自储氢罐的氢气产生电能，与直接来自公共耦合点的电能一起供应BEV车辆的充电需求；其模型表达式如下：The fuel cell modeling method is as follows: the fuel cell consumes part of the hydrogen from the hydrogen storage tank to generate electric energy, and supplies the charging demand of the BEV vehicle together with the electric energy directly from the point of common coupling; the model expression is as follows:

Figure BDA0003324935560000124
Figure BDA0003324935560000124

Figure BDA0003324935560000125
Figure BDA0003324935560000125

其中，ηfc为燃料电池的工作效率，

Figure BDA0003324935560000126
为t时段燃料电池产生的电能和消耗的氢气；
Figure BDA0003324935560000127
和P fc分别是燃料电池发电功率的上下限。where η fc is the working efficiency of the fuel cell,
Figure BDA0003324935560000126
is the electricity generated by the fuel cell and the hydrogen consumed by the fuel cell in period t;
Figure BDA0003324935560000127
and P fc are the upper and lower limits of fuel cell power generation, respectively.

所述BEV/HFCV充能模型的建模方法为：BEV采用无序充电模式，假设一天中车辆的行驶里程结束时间就是接入充能站开始充电的时间，则单辆BEVi的充电可建模为：The modeling method of the BEV/HFCV charging model is as follows: the BEV adopts the disordered charging mode. Assuming that the end time of the vehicle's mileage in a day is the time when the charging station is connected to the charging station, the charging of a single BEVi can be modeled. for:

Figure BDA0003324935560000128
Figure BDA0003324935560000128

Figure BDA0003324935560000129
Figure BDA0003324935560000129

Figure BDA00033249355600001210
Figure BDA00033249355600001210

Figure BDA00033249355600001211
Figure BDA00033249355600001211

其中，li为BEVi的日行驶里程，Ehkm为每百公里耗电量，ηBEV为BEV充电效率，Ei BEV是BEVi充满电的电力需求；

Figure BDA0003324935560000131
为t时段BEVi的充电功率，
Figure BDA0003324935560000132
为最大充电功率，假设无序充电模式下以最大充电功率对车辆进行充电直到充满；
Figure BDA0003324935560000133
为BEVi充满电所需的时长，
Figure BDA0003324935560000134
分别为充电开始和结束时间；Among them, l i is the daily mileage of the BEV i , E hkm is the power consumption per 100 kilometers, η BEV is the charging efficiency of the BEV, and E i BEV is the power demand of the fully charged BEV i ;
Figure BDA0003324935560000131
is the charging power of BEV i in period t,
Figure BDA0003324935560000132
is the maximum charging power, assuming that the vehicle is charged at the maximum charging power in the disordered charging mode until fully charged;
Figure BDA0003324935560000133
How long it takes to fully charge the BEV i ,
Figure BDA0003324935560000134
are the charging start and end times, respectively;

基于单辆BEVi的充电模型，可以得到充能站BEV充电需要的电功率为：Based on the charging model of a single BEV i , the electric power required for BEV charging at the charging station can be obtained as:

公式十一；formula eleven;

其中，

Figure BDA0003324935560000135
为t时刻BEV需要的充电功率，Nt，BEV为该时刻接入充能站充电的BEV数量；in,
Figure BDA0003324935560000135
is the charging power required by the BEV at time t, N t, and BEV is the number of BEVs charged at the charging station at this time;

所述HFCV充氢所需的时间很短，认为每辆HFCV都可以在一个时段内完成氢气补给，则在t时段充能站HFCV充氢需要的氢气质量为：The time required for hydrogen charging of the HFCV is very short, and it is considered that each HFCV can complete the hydrogen supply in a period of time, then the hydrogen quality required for the HFCV charging of the charging station in the t period is:

Figure BDA0003324935560000136
Figure BDA0003324935560000136

其中，

Figure BDA0003324935560000137
为单辆HFCVi需要的氢气质量，Nt，HFCV为该时段在充能站需要充氢的HFCV数量。in,
Figure BDA0003324935560000137
is the hydrogen mass required by a single HFCV i , N t, and HFCV is the quantity of HFCV that needs to be charged with hydrogen at the charging station during this period.

所述评估方法中，当所述HFCV为行程相对固定的公共汽车或运输货车时，采用协议充氢模式，与HFCV用户签署充氢协议按固定需要为其充能，当根据优化调度结果充能站可能无法完全满足充氢需要时，提前告知车主并支付被削减的氢气量对应售价的一半作为补偿的违约金。

Figure BDA0003324935560000138
所述综合充能站优化调度模型中，以一天为一个调度周期，对充能站进行优化调度，优化其运行过程并记录相应的充能需求缺供数据，作为可靠性评估依据；假设可靠性评估总考察时间内共有D天，对于任意一天d，计及充能需求削减，其优化调度的目标函数如下所示，In the evaluation method, when the HFCV is a bus or transport truck with a relatively fixed itinerary, the protocol hydrogen charging mode is adopted, and a hydrogen charging agreement is signed with the HFCV user to charge it according to fixed needs. When the station may not be able to fully meet the needs of hydrogen charging, the owner will be notified in advance and half of the selling price corresponding to the reduced hydrogen volume will be paid as a liquidated damages.
Figure BDA0003324935560000138
In the comprehensive charging station optimization scheduling model, one day is used as a scheduling cycle to optimize the scheduling of the charging station, optimize its operation process, and record the corresponding charging demand and supply data as a basis for reliability evaluation; assuming reliability There are D days in the total inspection time of the evaluation. For any day d, taking into account the reduction of the charging demand, the objective function of the optimal scheduling is as follows:

Figure BDA0003324935560000141
Figure BDA0003324935560000141

其中，T为一天内的时段数，ΩDG为分布式电源的集合；R为BEV和HFCV所有充能需要对应的收入，EP、HP为单位电能和氢气的售价；C1为分布式电源和电网购电成本，其中

Figure BDA0003324935560000142
为分布式电源和电网对充能站的实际供电功率，CDGi、
Figure BDA0003324935560000143
为对应的电能成本单价；C2为由于充能需求缺供而损失的收入，
Figure BDA0003324935560000144
分别为t时段缺供的电能和氢气量；C3为根据充氢协议向HFCV车主支付的违约金；即综合充能站优化调度模型中有下列公式；Among them, T is the number of time periods in a day, Ω DG is the collection of distributed power sources; R is the corresponding income of all charging needs of BEV and HFCV, EP and HP are the selling price per unit of electric energy and hydrogen; C 1 is the distributed power source and grid electricity purchase costs, of which
Figure BDA0003324935560000142
is the actual power supply of distributed power and grid to charging stations, C DGi ,
Figure BDA0003324935560000143
is the corresponding unit price of electric energy cost; C 2 is the income lost due to the shortage of charging demand,
Figure BDA0003324935560000144
C 3 is the liquidated damages paid to HFCV owners according to the hydrogen charging agreement; that is, the optimal scheduling model of the comprehensive charging station has the following formulas;

Figure BDA0003324935560000145
Figure BDA0003324935560000145

Figure BDA0003324935560000146
Figure BDA0003324935560000146

Figure BDA0003324935560000147
Figure BDA0003324935560000147

Figure BDA0003324935560000148
Figure BDA0003324935560000148

Figure BDA0003324935560000151
Figure BDA0003324935560000151

Figure BDA0003324935560000152
Figure BDA0003324935560000152

Figure BDA0003324935560000153
Figure BDA0003324935560000153

Figure BDA0003324935560000154
Figure BDA0003324935560000154

Figure BDA0003324935560000155
Figure BDA0003324935560000155

如公式十四至公式十五所示，综合充能站实际消耗的分布式电源电能不能超过其实际出力，从电网购电并经公共电网耦合点的输入功率也受到输电线路容量限制；As shown in Equation 14 to Equation 15, the actual consumption of distributed power by the integrated charging station cannot exceed its actual output, and the input power purchased from the grid and passed through the coupling point of the public grid is also limited by the capacity of the transmission line;

如公式十六至公式十七所示，BEV和HFCV充能需求的缺供量不能大于其实际充能需求；As shown in Equation 16 to Equation 17, the shortage of BEV and HFCV charging demand cannot be greater than their actual charging demand;

如公式十八所示，综合充能站电力消耗的总和均用于充能站内电解池电制氢和直接给BEV充电；As shown in Equation 18, the total power consumption of the integrated charging station is used to produce hydrogen from the electrolytic cells in the charging station and directly charge the BEV;

如公式十九所示，实际供给BEV的功率等于燃料电池出力及部分来自公共耦合点的电能

Figure BDA0003324935560000156
总和；As shown in Equation 19, the power actually supplied to the BEV is equal to the fuel cell output and part of the power from the point of common coupling
Figure BDA0003324935560000156
sum;

如公式二十所示，储氢罐储存的氢气均来自电解池电解水所得；As shown in Equation 20, the hydrogen stored in the hydrogen storage tank comes from the electrolysis of water in the electrolytic cell;

如公式二十一所示，储氢罐储存的氢气可直接供应给HFCV，也可以通过燃料电池转换为电能；As shown in Equation 21, the hydrogen stored in the hydrogen storage tank can be directly supplied to the HFCV, and can also be converted into electricity through the fuel cell;

如公式二十二所示，综合充能站优化调度模型设置一天中初始时刻储气罐内氢气量最低值要习

Figure BDA0003324935560000157
在一天结束时储氢罐中的氢气量
Figure BDA0003324935560000158
立不少于该值。As shown in Equation 22, the optimal scheduling model of the integrated charging station sets the minimum value of hydrogen in the gas storage tank at the initial moment of the day to learn
Figure BDA0003324935560000157
The amount of hydrogen in the storage tank at the end of the day
Figure BDA0003324935560000158
not less than this value.

步骤五中的计算综合充能站可靠性指标，是基于车辆充能需求缺供情况，建立综合充能站可靠性指标体系，用于评估其供能可靠性，有以下公式；The calculation of the reliability index of the comprehensive charging station in step 5 is to establish a reliability index system of the comprehensive charging station based on the shortage of vehicle charging demand and supply, which is used to evaluate the reliability of its energy supply, and has the following formula;

Figure BDA0003324935560000159
Figure BDA0003324935560000159

Figure BDA0003324935560000161
Figure BDA0003324935560000161

Figure BDA0003324935560000162
Figure BDA0003324935560000162

Figure BDA0003324935560000163
Figure BDA0003324935560000163

Figure BDA0003324935560000164
Figure BDA0003324935560000164

Figure BDA0003324935560000165
Figure BDA0003324935560000165

如公式二十三至公式二十八所示，在可靠性评估总考察时间内共计有D·T个时段，将上述每天优化调度运行结果中的充能需求削减相关数据分别记录为

Figure BDA0003324935560000166
PBDS和PHDS表示BEV和HFCV充能需求被削减的概率；PEDS代表充能站削减新能源汽车充能需求的概率；EBDNS和EHDNS分别表示BEV和HFCV的期望缺供电量和氢气量，EEDNS表示期望缺供能量，即EBDNS和EHDNS的总和，EBDNS、EHDNS、EEDNS均取日期望值；公式二十三至公式二十八中，氢气量均结合氢气低热值换算为电功率的单位。As shown in Equation 23 to Equation 28, there are D·T periods in total during the total inspection time of the reliability assessment, and the data related to the reduction of the charging demand in the above-mentioned daily optimal scheduling operation results are respectively recorded as
Figure BDA0003324935560000166
PBDS and PHDS represent the probability that the charging demand of BEV and HFCV will be reduced; PEDS represents the probability that the charging station will reduce the charging demand of new energy vehicles; EBDNS and EHDNS represent the expected power shortage and hydrogen volume of BEV and HFCV, respectively, and EEDNS represents the expectation The lack of energy supply is the sum of EBDNS and EHDNS. EBDNS, EHDNS and EEDNS all take the daily expected value; in formula 23 to formula 28, the amount of hydrogen is converted into the unit of electric power combined with the low calorific value of hydrogen.

当综合充电站与充氢需求固定的HFCV签订了充氢协议，且有如果发生缺供氢气则补偿的约定，则步骤二中的车辆数量估计模型中，仅考虑充电需求削减对BEV车主选择充电站的影响，引入心理物理学领域W-F定律建立计及车主充电体验影响的车辆数量估计模型，根据近几天的充电需求缺供情况估计当天的BEV车辆数，具体方法为：When the integrated charging station has signed a hydrogen charging agreement with the HFCV with fixed hydrogen charging demand, and there is an agreement on compensation if there is a shortage of hydrogen supply, in the vehicle quantity estimation model in step 2, only the reduction of charging demand is considered to select charging for BEV owners The W-F law in the field of psychophysics is introduced to establish a vehicle number estimation model that takes into account the impact of vehicle owners' charging experience, and the number of BEV vehicles on the day is estimated according to the shortage of charging demand in recent days. The specific methods are as follows:

在新能源汽车综合充能站所在位置的服务区域内，可能服务到的BEV数量用Nsum表示，把这些BEV的车主分为固定用户、一般用户和游离用户，数量分别表示为Nl、Ns和Nr；固定用户指的是固定或长期在该充能站充电消费、忠诚度高的客户群体；一般用户则指会受到近期充电需求缺供情况影响有一定概率不在该充能站充电的客户群体；游离用户指首次或偶尔在该充能站消费，但尚未稳定的客户群体，则在任一天d内，选择该充能站充电的BEV数量可表示为：In the service area where the comprehensive charging station for new energy vehicles is located, the number of BEVs that may be served is represented by N sum , and the owners of these BEVs are divided into fixed users, general users and free users, and the numbers are represented as N l , N s and N r ; Fixed users refer to the customer groups who charge at the charging station for a fixed or long-term consumption and have high loyalty; general users refer to the fact that they will be affected by the recent shortage of charging demand and have a certain probability not to charge at the charging station. Free users refer to the customers who consume at this charging station for the first time or occasionally, but have not yet stabilized. In any day d, the number of BEVs that choose to charge at this charging station can be expressed as:

Figure BDA0003324935560000171
Figure BDA0003324935560000171

Figure BDA0003324935560000172
Figure BDA0003324935560000172

Figure BDA0003324935560000173
Figure BDA0003324935560000173

如公式二十九所示，在第d天全天，充能站共有Nd，BEVs辆BEV在此充电，其中，固定用户数量Nd，l稳定，即为Nl；游离用户数量波动较大，因此认为服从均匀分布；一般用户的数量通过引入W-F定律进行估计；W-F定律为心理学领域上能定量地建立人的反应与客观刺激量之间的函数关系的定律；As shown in Equation 29, on the dth day, there is a total of N d at the charging station, and BEVs BEVs are charged here. Among them, the number of fixed users N d and l is stable, which is N l ; the number of free users fluctuates more than Therefore, it is considered to obey the uniform distribution; the number of general users is estimated by introducing the WF law; the WF law is a law in the field of psychology that can quantitatively establish the functional relationship between human response and objective stimulus;

如公式三十所示，根据W-F定律，一般用户在当天拒绝选择该充能站的概率为sd，

Figure BDA0003324935560000174
为最小可觉差，k0是韦伯系数，s0是刺激常数；As shown in Equation 30, according to the WF law, the probability that a general user refuses to select the charging station on the day is s d ,
Figure BDA0003324935560000174
is the minimum perceptible difference, k 0 is the Weber coefficient, and s 0 is the stimulus constant;

如公式三十一所示，

Figure BDA0003324935560000181
为刺激量，即第d天之前的n天内充电需求缺供的总体情况，PBDS1i为一天内被削减的充电需求占比。As shown in Equation 31,
Figure BDA0003324935560000181
In order to stimulate the amount, that is, the overall situation of the shortage of charging demand in the n days before the d day, PBDS1 i is the proportion of charging demand that is reduced in one day.

步骤二中，假设所有车辆每天最多接入综合充能站充电一次，BEV行驶规律数据的分布由实际统计数据经极大似然估计方法拟合得到；In step 2, it is assumed that all vehicles are connected to the integrated charging station for charging at most once a day, and the distribution of the BEV driving law data is obtained by fitting the actual statistical data through the maximum likelihood estimation method;

BEV行驶规律数据的分布如下述公式三十二、公式三十三所示，The distribution of BEV driving law data is shown in the following formulas 32 and 33.

Figure BDA0003324935560000182
Figure BDA0003324935560000182

车辆充电开始时间符合公式三十二中所示分布，其中The vehicle charging start time follows the distribution shown in Equation 32, where

Figure BDA0003324935560000185
Figure BDA0003324935560000185

Figure BDA0003324935560000183
Figure BDA0003324935560000183

车辆日行驶里程符合公式三十三所示分布，其中The daily mileage of the vehicle conforms to the distribution shown in Equation 33, where

Figure BDA0003324935560000184
Figure BDA0003324935560000184

Claims (8)

1. A reliability assessment method for a new energy automobile comprehensive energy charging station can assess the reliability of the energy charging station on the automobile energy charging capacity, and is characterized in that: the integrated charging station is used for charging BEV and charging HFCV; BEV is a battery electric vehicle; HFCV is hydrogen fuel cell vehicles; in the evaluation method, the power for charging the BEV comes from a public power grid coupling point or a fuel cell in a comprehensive charging station; hydrogen for charging HFCV is prepared by an electrolytic cell, and the hydrogen produced by the electrolytic cell is stored in a hydrogen storage tank; the evaluation method includes the following steps;
the method comprises the following steps: acquiring relevant parameters required by reliability evaluation of the comprehensive charging station, including equipment capacity, the number of users in a service area and the like, and acquiring local annual distributed power supply electric energy output according to historical data;
step two: acquiring the charging and hydrogen charging requirements of BEV and HFCV for one day based on a BEV/HFCV charging model; the hydrogen demand of the HFCV is determined according to the number of vehicles and a charging protocol; determining BEV charging requirements according to the number of BEVs on the same day determined by the vehicle quantity estimation model and BEV running rule data which are simulated and met by adopting Latin hypercube sampling;
solving an optimized scheduling model of the comprehensive energy charging station to obtain and record the energy charging demand shortage condition of the current day;
checking whether the total days reach the upper limit of the reliability evaluation total investigation time; if the result is reached, the next step is carried out, otherwise, the step two is returned;
and fifthly, comprehensively evaluating the relevant data of the energy-charging demand shortage condition in the total investigation time, and calculating the reliability index of the comprehensive energy-charging station.
2. The reliability evaluation method for the comprehensive energy charging station of the new energy automobile according to claim 1, characterized in that: the method for solving the optimal scheduling model of the comprehensive energy charging station in the third step comprises an electrolytic cell modeling method, a hydrogen storage tank modeling method and a fuel cell modeling method aiming at the comprehensive energy charging station;
the modeling method of the electrolytic cell comprises the following steps: the electrolytic cell is used for realizing the hydrogen production process by electrolyzing water and consuming electric energy to produce hydrogen, and the expression of the model and the constraint condition is as follows:
Figure FDA0003324935550000011
Figure FDA0003324935550000012
wherein etaelzIn order to be able to achieve the efficiency of the electrolysis cell,
Figure FDA0003324935550000021
mt elzrespectively representing the consumed electric power and the generated hydrogen quality in the t period; Δ t is the duration of each time period, and is set to 1 hour; LHV is the lower heating value of hydrogen and is a constant;
Figure FDA0003324935550000022
andP elzis the maximum and minimum electrical power consumed by the electrolytic cell;
the modeling method of the hydrogen storage tank comprises the following steps: the hydrogen storage tank stores hydrogen generated by water electrolysis of the electrolytic cell, and is used for hydrogen supply of a hydrogen fuel cell vehicle or for a fuel cell to convert the hydrogen into electric energy, and the amount of the hydrogen stored in the hydrogen storage tank can be represented by the following formula:
Figure FDA0003324935550000023
the amount of hydrogen gas stored in the hydrogen storage tank depends on the amount of hydrogen gas contained in the tank at the end of the previous period
Figure FDA0003324935550000024
And the amount of hydrogen produced and consumed during that period
Figure FDA0003324935550000025
At any time, the hydrogen content in the hydrogen storage tank cannot exceed the limit of the capacity of the hydrogen storage tank, namely, the following conditions should be met:
Figure FDA0003324935550000026
the fuel cell modeling method comprises the following steps: the fuel cell consumes part of the hydrogen from the hydrogen storage tank to generate electrical energy to supply the charging demand of the BEV vehicle along with electrical energy directly from the pcc; the model expression is as follows:
Figure FDA0003324935550000027
Figure FDA0003324935550000028
wherein eta isfcIn order to achieve an operational efficiency of the fuel cell,
Figure FDA0003324935550000029
the electric energy generated and the hydrogen consumed by the fuel cell during the period t;
Figure FDA00033249355500000210
andP fcrespectively, the upper and lower limits of the generated power of the fuel cell.
3. The reliability evaluation method for the comprehensive energy charging station of the new energy automobile according to claim 2, characterized in that: the modeling method of the BEV/HFCV energy charging model comprises the following steps: the BEV adopts a disordered charging mode, and if the travel mileage end time of the vehicle in one day is the time for starting charging of the access charging station, a single BEViThe charging of (a) can be modeled as:
Figure FDA0003324935550000031
Figure FDA0003324935550000032
Figure FDA0003324935550000033
Figure FDA0003324935550000034
wherein liIs BEViMileage on day of (E)hkmPower consumption per hundred kilometers, ηBEVFor BEV charging efficiency, Ei BEVIs BEViA fully charged power demand;
Figure FDA0003324935550000035
is t period BEViThe charging power of the battery pack is set,
Figure FDA0003324935550000036
assuming that the vehicle is charged with the maximum charging power in the disordered charging mode until the vehicle is fully charged;
Figure FDA0003324935550000037
is BEViThe length of time required for full charging,
Figure FDA0003324935550000038
respectively charging start and end times;
based on single BEViThe charging model of (1) can obtain the electric power required by the charging station BEV for charging as follows:
Figure FDA0003324935550000039
wherein,
Figure FDA00033249355500000310
charging power required for BEV at time t, Nt，BEVThe number of BEVs charged by the charging station for accessing the moment;
the time required for charging the HFCV is short, and each HFCV can complete hydrogen supply in one period of time, so the hydrogen quality required for charging the HFCV at the charging station in the period t is as follows:
Figure FDA00033249355500000311
wherein,
Figure FDA00033249355500000312
is a single HFCViRequired quality of hydrogen, Nt，HFCVThe amount of HFCV needed to be charged at the charging station for that period.
4. The reliability evaluation method for the comprehensive energy charging station of the new energy automobile according to claim 3, characterized in that: in the evaluation method, when the HFCV is a bus or a transportation truck with a relatively fixed travel, a protocol hydrogen charging mode is adopted, a hydrogen charging protocol is signed with an HFCV user to charge the HFCV according to a fixed requirement, and when the hydrogen charging requirement can not be completely met by a charging station according to an optimized dispatching result, a vehicle owner is informed in advance and half of the sale price corresponding to the reduced hydrogen amount is paid as a compensation default fund.
5. The reliability evaluation method for the comprehensive energy charging station of the new energy automobile according to claim 4, characterized in that: in the comprehensive energy charging station optimized scheduling model, one day is taken as a scheduling period, the energy charging station is optimally scheduled, the running process of the energy charging station is optimized, and corresponding energy charging demand shortage data are recorded and serve as reliability evaluation bases; assuming a total of D days within the total time of the reliability assessment, for any day D, the energy charging requirement reduction is accounted for, the objective function of which to optimize the scheduling is shown below,
Figure FDA0003324935550000041
wherein T is the number of time periods in a day，ΩDGIs a collection of distributed power sources; r is the corresponding income required by all the charging of BEV and HFCV, and EP and HP are the selling price of unit electric energy and hydrogen; c1Purchasing electricity costs for distributed power sources and grids, wherein
Figure FDA0003324935550000042
Actual power supply to the charging station for distributed generation and grid, CDGi、
Figure FDA0003324935550000043
The unit price of the corresponding electric energy cost; c2To lose revenue due to a lack of supply of energy,
Figure FDA0003324935550000044
respectively the electric energy and the hydrogen quantity which are not supplied in the t period; c3Defaulting money paid to the HFCV vehicle owner according to the charging protocol; namely, the optimal scheduling model of the comprehensive energy charging station has the following formula;
Figure FDA0003324935550000051
Figure FDA0003324935550000052
Figure FDA0003324935550000053
Figure FDA0003324935550000054
Figure FDA0003324935550000055
Figure FDA0003324935550000056
Figure FDA0003324935550000057
Figure FDA0003324935550000058
Figure FDA0003324935550000059
as shown in formulas fourteen to fifteen, the distributed power supply electric energy actually consumed by the comprehensive energy charging station cannot exceed the actual output, and the input power purchased from the power grid and passing through the public power grid coupling point is also limited by the capacity of the power transmission line;
as shown in formulas sixteen to seventeen, the shortage of the BEV and HFCV charging requirements cannot be greater than the actual charging requirements;
as shown in the formula eighteen, the sum of the power consumption of the comprehensive energy charging station is used for electrically producing hydrogen by the electrolytic cell in the energy charging station and directly charging the BEV;
as shown in the nineteenth equation, the actual power supplied to the BEV is equal to the fuel cell output and a portion of the electrical energy from the point of common coupling
Figure FDA00033249355500000510
Summing up;
as shown in the formula twenty, the hydrogen stored in the hydrogen storage tank is obtained by electrolyzing water in the electrolytic cell;
as shown in the formula twenty-one, the hydrogen stored in the hydrogen storage tank can be directly supplied to the HFCV, or can be converted into electric energy by the fuel cell;
setting an initial time storage in one day by the optimized scheduling model of the comprehensive energy charging station as shown by a formula twenty twoMinimum hydrogen requirement in gas tank
Figure FDA0003324935550000061
Amount of hydrogen in hydrogen storage tank at end of day
Figure FDA0003324935550000062
This value should not be exceeded.
6. The reliability evaluation method for the comprehensive energy charging station of the new energy automobile according to claim 5, characterized in that: calculating a reliability index of the comprehensive energy charging station in the step five, namely establishing a reliability index system of the comprehensive energy charging station based on the shortage condition of the vehicle energy charging requirement, and evaluating the energy supply reliability of the comprehensive energy charging station, wherein the reliability index system comprises the following formula;
Figure FDA0003324935550000063
Figure FDA0003324935550000064
Figure FDA0003324935550000065
Figure FDA0003324935550000066
Figure FDA0003324935550000067
Figure FDA0003324935550000068
as shown in formulas twenty-three to twenty-eight, D.T time intervals are counted in the total reliability evaluation time, and the related data of energy charging demand reduction in the daily optimization scheduling operation result are recorded as
Figure FDA0003324935550000069
PBDS and PHDS represent the probability that BEV and HFCV charging requirements are curtailed; the PEDS represents the probability that the energy charging station reduces the energy charging requirement of the new energy automobile; EBDNS and EHDNS respectively represent the expected shortage power and hydrogen of BEV and HFCV, EEDNS represents the expected shortage energy, namely the sum of EBDNS and EHDNS, and EBDNS, EHDNS and EEDNS all take the expected date; in the formulas twenty-three to twenty-eight, the hydrogen amount is converted into the unit of electric power by combining with the low heat value of the hydrogen.
7. The reliability evaluation method for the comprehensive energy charging station of the new energy automobile according to claim 6, characterized in that: when a charging agreement is signed by the comprehensive charging station and the HFCV with fixed charging demand and compensation is given if hydrogen supply shortage occurs, in the vehicle quantity estimation model in the step two, only the influence of charging demand reduction on the selection of the charging station by a BEV owner is considered, a psychophysics field W-F law is introduced to establish a vehicle quantity estimation model considering the influence of owner charging experience, and the number of BEV vehicles on the day is estimated according to the charging demand shortage condition of the recent days, wherein the specific method comprises the following steps of:
in a service area of a position of a comprehensive energy charging station of the new energy automobile, the number of BEVs possibly served is NsumThe owners of these BEVs are divided into fixed users, general users and free users, and the number is respectively expressed as N1、NsAnd Nr(ii) a The fixed user refers to a customer group with high loyalty and consuming by charging at the charging station for a fixed or long time; the general users refer to a customer group which is influenced by the short-term shortage of charging requirements and is not charged at the charging station with a certain probability; an errant user refers to a group of customers who are first or infrequently consuming at the charging station, but who are not yet stable, then the number of BEVs selected to charge the charging station on any day d may be expressed as:
Figure FDA0003324935550000071
Figure FDA0003324935550000072
Figure FDA0003324935550000081
as shown in the formula twenty-nine, the charging station has N all day on day dd，BEVsThe BEV is charged, wherein the number of users N is fixedd，1Is stable, i.e. is N1(ii) a The number of free users fluctuates greatly, so that the uniform distribution is considered to be obeyed; the number of general users is estimated by introducing W-F law; the W-F law is a law which can quantitatively establish a functional relationship between human response and objective stimulus quantity in the field of psychology;
as shown in formula thirty, according to the W-F law, the probability that the general user refuses to select the charging station in the current day is sd，
Figure FDA0003324935550000082
Is the smallest perceptible difference, k0Is the Weber coefficient, s0Is the stimulus constant;
as shown in the formula thirty-one,
Figure FDA0003324935550000083
PBDS1 is the stimulation dose, i.e., the total situation of the shortage of the charging demand in n days before day diIs a percentage of the charging demand that is curtailed during the day.
8. The reliability evaluation method for the comprehensive energy charging station of the new energy automobile according to claim 7, characterized in that: in the second step, assuming that all vehicles are accessed to the comprehensive energy charging station for charging at most once every day, the distribution of BEV driving rule data is obtained by fitting actual statistical data through a maximum likelihood estimation method;
the distribution of the BEV travel law data is as shown in the following equations thirty-two and thirty-three,
Figure FDA0003324935550000084
the vehicle charge start time follows the distribution shown in the formula thirty-two, where
kT＝5.857，
Figure FDA0003324935550000085
Figure FDA0003324935550000086
The daily mileage of the vehicle is in accordance with the distribution shown by the formula thirty-three, wherein
kD＝1.048，
Figure FDA0003324935550000091
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