CN113888210A - Engineering cost estimation method - Google Patents
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Abstract
The technical scheme adopted by the invention is as follows: a project cost estimation method includes the following steps: s1, preliminarily identifying and counting main influence factors for obtaining the engineering project to be calculated; s2, carrying out modeling analysis on the obtained main influence factors, and selecting key influence factors from the main influence factors; evaluating and analyzing the importance degree of each key influence factor, finding out the logic relationship among the key influence factors and sequencing the logic relationship to obtain the key influence factors and the weight relationship of the key influence factors; and S3, selecting project characteristic information of the project to be calculated based on the key influence factors and the weight relationship thereof, and obtaining the cost evaluation value of the project to be calculated through the cost information module. The invention can provide certain reference and support for engineering cost analysis work.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the technical field of construction cost, and particularly relates to a construction cost estimation method.
Background
Under the background that the national economy enters a new normal state, the engineering construction market is still active. The global wind energy council published its flagship publication "global wind power report" in new delry, india, 4 months and 25 days in 2017: annual market development ": in 2016, the wind power accumulation and newly increased installed capacity of China all occupy the first world. In 2016, China continues to draw on the global photovoltaic market with a total installed amount of up to 31GW, which is the first name of the total installed amount of photovoltaic in China that has been obtained in four consecutive years since 2013.
The continuous back warming of the wind power and photovoltaic engineering construction market puts forward new requirements for further improving the development and operation capacity and level of the projects, transforming the management mode and strengthening the engineering cost information service function. The reference cost index for limit design of thermal power and power grid engineering compiled by the electric power planning and design headquarters can be used as the basis for dynamic management, project investment approval, project investment control and limit design. But wind power and photovoltaic projects lack such modular cost information. The existing market is lack of exploration of resource and integration of the project cost information, and the project cost information needs to be ordered and modularized, and a standardized and standardized project cost information model is established so as to meet the requirement of engineering technology development.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to solve the defects of the background technology, and provides a project cost estimation method which can provide certain reference and support for project cost analysis work.
The technical scheme adopted by the invention is as follows: a project cost estimation method includes the following steps:
s1, preliminarily identifying and counting main influence factors for obtaining the engineering project to be calculated;
s2, carrying out modeling analysis on the obtained main influence factors, and selecting key influence factors from the main influence factors; evaluating and analyzing the importance degree of each key influence factor, finding out the logic relationship among the key influence factors and sequencing the logic relationship to obtain the key influence factors and the weight relationship of the key influence factors;
and S3, selecting project characteristic information of the project to be calculated based on the key influence factors and the weight relationship thereof, and obtaining the cost evaluation value of the project to be calculated through the cost information module.
In the above technical solution, in the step S2, the main influence factors are classified and analyzed, and the key influence factors are determined by applying a hall structure analysis joint expert for scoring.
In the above technical solution, in the step S2, the engineering cost control is set as a key problem for explaining the structural model; selecting a leading factor influencing a key problem from the main influencing factors as a key influencing factor; listing the relevance of each leading factor; establishing an adjacent matrix and a reachable matrix according to the correlation of each leading element; after decomposing the reachable matrix, establishing a structural model; establishing an explanation structure model according to the structure model; the explained structure model is a four-level step progressive structure and is used for representing the logical relationship and the importance degree among key influence factors.
In the above technical solution, in the step S2, the key influence factors are integrally evaluated to obtain an adjacency matrix, and a reachable matrix is obtained by solving the adjacency matrix by applying boolean operation; and carrying out interval division, interstage division and strong connection block division according to the reachable matrix to obtain an explained structure model.
In the above technical solution, in the step S2, the key influencing element S is setiThe reachable set of elements is defined as element SiWith R (S)i) Represents; r (S)i)＝{Si∈N|mij1, wherein R (S)i) Representing the Sth in the reachable matrixiAll the elements corresponding to the columns with the matrix elements of 1 in the rows are gathered; n represents a set of all nodes; m isijIs the association value of inode, mij1 denotes the node i offConnecting node j, i.e. R (S)i) The set of representations is the element SiThe upper set of (2);
the key influencing element S is about to be reachediIs defined as a key influencing element SiThe antecedent cause of (A) is collected asi) Represents; a (S)i)＝{Sj∈N|mji＝1}，A(Si) From the S th in the matrixjAll matrix elements in the column are elements corresponding to the row with 1, and the set represented by the elements is the key influence element SiA lower set of;
the region division means that the relationship between the elements is divided into reachable and unreachable, the connectivity of the elements is judged, and the key influence elements are divided into a plurality of parts with relationship; for elements in a common set, if two key influencing elements SiAnd SjIn the same section, then
Otherwise, they belong to two communication domains respectively;
the inter-level division means that all elements in the system are divided into different levels by taking the reachable matrix as a criterion; if L is used1，L2，...，LkRepresenting the order from top to bottom, then there are k orders of the system, and the inter-stage division l (n) can be expressed by the following formula: l (n) ═ L1，L2，...，Lk]。
In the technical scheme, the project to be calculated is a wind power project; starting from a wind power engineering process flow, dividing a wind power engineering project into a construction auxiliary project, equipment and installation project, a construction project and other projects, wherein the total cost of the construction auxiliary project, the equipment and installation project, the construction project and the other projects comprises wind power engineering cost, other costs, basic preparation cost and interest in a construction period; the wind power engineering cost is the largest part of the total cost, and the rest three parts are smaller and take the cost as the base number; the wind power plant engineering cost adopts an engineering quantity list pricing mode, wherein the calculation of the construction security fee needs to maintain the basic price according to the related policies and regulations of the establishment year and the market price level; then, according to the rated human-machine consumption, multiplying the corresponding budget unit price to calculate the direct wind power project cost, and considering the independent cost generated by the owner demand, the government demand, the environment demand and the access system demand; and comprehensively analyzing the annual price level, the project quantity of the wind power project and the external conditions to obtain main influence factors of the project to be calculated.
The main influence factors of the wind power engineering which are the engineering projects to be calculated include: the method comprises the following steps of wind power plant site selection, demand identification of investors, planning period market price level fluctuation, fan equipment selection, fan foundation form, station area process arrangement, station area civil engineering structure, station area foundation processing scheme, booster station design capacity and equipment selection, cable laying scheme, typical design execution condition, control protection equipment configuration scheme, current collection line form, geographical position condition and topographic geology, sending-out and accessing system condition, investor additional planning principle and national policy document, station entering and in-station road length, capital allocation case and interest rate change condition, transportation path and scheme selection, local preferential policy related to land acquisition and renting and the like, cost change risk estimation and whether the design scheme is effectively optimized.
In the technical scheme, the project to be calculated is a photovoltaic power generation project, the photovoltaic power generation project is divided into construction auxiliary project, equipment and installation project, construction project and other projects from the process flow of the photovoltaic power generation project, and the total cost of the project is composed of photovoltaic power generation project cost, other costs, basic preparation cost and interest in construction period; the cost of the photovoltaic power generation project is the largest part of the total cost, and the rest three parts are smaller and take the cost as the base number; the photovoltaic power generation project cost adopts a project amount list pricing mode, wherein the calculation of the construction security fee needs to maintain the basic price according to relevant policies and regulations of the establishment year and the market price level; and then, calculating direct wind power project cost by multiplying the rated human-material machine consumption by the corresponding budget unit price, and comprehensively analyzing the annual price level, the photovoltaic power generation project quantity and the external conditions to obtain the main influence factors of the project to be calculated by considering independent cost generated by owner requirements, government requirements, environmental requirements and access system requirements.
The main influence factors of the photovoltaic engineering which is the engineering project to be calculated include: the method comprises the following steps of photovoltaic electric field site selection, demand identification of investors, establishment market price level fluctuation, polycrystalline silicon photovoltaic module model selection, station area process arrangement, station area civil engineering structure, booster station design capacity and equipment model selection, cable laying scheme, typical design execution condition, control protection equipment configuration scheme, geographical position condition and topographic geology, sending and accessing system condition, investor additional establishment principle, capital distribution ratio and interest rate change condition, local preferential policy related to land requisition and renting and the like, cost change risk estimation, and whether the design scheme is effectively optimized or not.
In the above technical solution, the index information and price information of the project to be calculated include main technical and economic index information, unit project cost index information, sub-project cost information, material and equipment cost information, and market price information.
The invention has the beneficial effects that: the factors influencing the construction cost are summarized by deep analysis of the construction cost characteristics of wind power and photovoltaic projects; and (3) modeling and analyzing the main influence factors by using an explanation structure model, analyzing the importance degree of the main influence factors, finding out the logical relationship between the main influence factors and sequencing the main influence factors. A new construction cost information organization form is constructed by applying a model method of system engineering, and an index module which accords with the engineering characteristics is established in the new energy field after the thermal power engineering quota design reference recruitment index. Can provide certain reference and support for the engineering cost analysis work. The invention perfects the accumulation of the engineering data according to the constructed engineering cost information organization form. For engineering cost personnel, the price variation trend and the reason thereof can be analyzed by the key influence factors and the weight relationship thereof acquired by the invention, and for business personnel, the price variation trend and the reason thereof can be used as important basis for engineering valuation, important basis for scheme comparison of designers and basis for settlement of project management personnel.
Drawings
FIG. 1 shows the construction cost and influence factors of a wind power project;
FIG. 2 is a structural model for explaining key influence factors of wind power engineering cost;
FIG. 3 illustrates the construction cost and influencing factors of the photovoltaic power generation project of the present invention;
fig. 4 is a structural model explaining key influence factors of photovoltaic construction cost.
Detailed Description
The invention will be further described in detail with reference to the following drawings and specific examples, which are not intended to limit the invention, but are for clear understanding.
As shown in the figure, the invention provides a project cost estimation method, which comprises the following steps:
s1, preliminarily identifying and counting main influence factors for obtaining the engineering project to be calculated;
s2, carrying out modeling analysis on the obtained main influence factors, and selecting key influence factors from the main influence factors; evaluating and analyzing the importance degree of each key influence factor, finding out the logic relationship among the key influence factors and sequencing the logic relationship to obtain the key influence factors and the weight relationship of the key influence factors;
and S3, selecting project characteristic information of the project to be calculated based on the key influence factors and the weight relationship thereof, and obtaining the cost evaluation value of the project to be calculated through the cost information module.
In the above technical solution, in the step S2, the main influence factors are classified and analyzed, and the key influence factors are determined by applying a hall structure analysis joint expert for scoring. The Hall structure analysis provides a unified thought method for solving the problems of planning, organizing and managing a large-scale complex system, and the three-dimensional structure of the Hall structure analysis can be defined as follows by applying the method according to the characteristics of wind power and photovoltaic engineering projects: and (4) grading and preferably selecting wind power and photovoltaic project cost influence factors by combining project composition, project participants and project external conditions and experts.
In the above technical solution, in the step S2, the engineering cost control is set as a key problem for explaining the structural model; selecting a leading factor influencing the key problem from the key influencing factors; listing the relevance of each leading factor; establishing an adjacent matrix and a reachable matrix according to the correlation of each leading element; after decomposing the reachable matrix, establishing a structural model; establishing an explanation structure model according to the structure model; the explained structure model is a four-level step progressive structure and is used for representing the logical relationship and the importance degree among key influence factors.
In the above technical solution, in the step S2, the key influence factors are integrally evaluated to obtain an adjacency matrix, and a reachable matrix is obtained by solving the adjacency matrix by applying boolean operation; and carrying out interval division, interstage division and strong connection block division according to the reachable matrix to obtain an explained structure model.
In the above technical solution, in the step S2, the key influencing element S is setiThe reachable set of elements is defined as element SiWith R (S)i) Represents; r (S)i)＝{Si∈N|mij1, wherein R (S)i) Representing the Sth in the reachable matrixiAll the elements corresponding to the columns with the matrix elements of 1 in the rows are gathered; n represents a set of all nodes; m isijIs the association value of inode, mij1 denotes that node i is associated with node j, i.e. R (S)i) The set of representations is the element SiThe upper set of (2);
the key influencing element S is about to be reachediIs defined as a key influencing element SiThe antecedent cause of (A) is collected asi) Represents; a (S)i)＝{Sj∈N|mji＝1}，A(Si) From the S th in the matrixjAll matrix elements in the column are elements corresponding to the row with 1, and the set represented by the elements is the key influence element SiA lower set of;
the region division means that the relationship between the elements is divided into reachable and unreachable, the connectivity of the elements is judged, and the key influence elements are divided into a plurality of parts with relationship; for elements in a common set, if two key influencing elements SiAnd SjIn the same section, then
Otherwise, they belong to two communication domains respectively;
the inter-level division means that all elements in the system are divided into different levels by taking the reachable matrix as a criterion; if L is used1，L2，...，LkRepresenting the order from top to bottom, then there are k orders of the system, and the inter-stage division l (n) can be expressed by the following formula: l (n) ═ L1，L2，...，Lk]。
The complicated and fragmented engineering cost information may be influenced by various factors to cause information distortion or influence work efficiency. Therefore, it is necessary to first examine its influencing factors and to specify the subject.
When the project to be calculated is a wind power project, according to the general calculation establishment regulations and cost standards of onshore wind power plant project design (NB/T31011-2011) released by the national energy agency 2011 at 8/6/2011 at 11/1/2011, the wind power project is divided into construction auxiliary projects, equipment and installation projects, construction projects and other projects, and the total cost of the project is composed of wind power plant project cost, other costs, basic preparation cost and interest in construction period. The engineering cost of the wind power plant is the largest part of the total cost, the rest three parts are smaller and all take the cost as the base number, the composition and the influence factors of the engineering cost of the wind power plant are shown in figure 1, and the engineering cost part of the wind power plant is mainly discussed. The wind power plant engineering adopts a project amount list pricing mode, the calculation of the construction and safety fees needs to maintain basic prices according to relevant policies and regulations of the establishment year and market price level, then direct project fees are calculated by multiplying the rated consumption of the human materials and the corresponding budget unit price, and independent fees generated by owner requirements, government requirements, environmental requirements and access system requirements need to be considered. Therefore, the wind power project cost needs to be analyzed comprehensively according to the annual price level, the project amount and the external conditions.
Starting from the wind power engineering process flow, the construction cost influence factors are obtained through preliminary identification and statistics, a wind power engineering construction cost influence factor system (shown in table 1) is established, 22 influence factors are included, and the main influence factors in the table 1 are represented by A1-A22.
TABLE 1 wind power engineering cost influence factor system
The wind power engineering cost influence factors are classified and analyzed, the Hall structure analysis joint experts are used for scoring, the A1-A22 are optimized, and the cost key influence factors S1-S12 are determined as shown in Table 2.
TABLE 2 Key influencing factors of wind power engineering cost
And (3) analyzing the main influence factors by applying an explanation structure model in the system engineering to the determined wind power engineering cost key influence factors in the table 2, and determining the logical relationship among the key influence factors so as to reasonably analyze the cost information with a certain target. And establishing the reachable matrix by integrally evaluating the key influence factors. Filling 1 in the matrix indicates influence, filling 0 indicates no influence (i, j ═ 0, 1, 2.., 12), and a reachable matrix is obtained by applying boolean operations to the adjacency matrix and solving, as shown in table 3.
TABLE 3 reachable matrix of influencing factors
According to the reachable matrixAnd carrying out interval division, interstage division and strong connection block division. R (S) of each elementi) A (Sj), and R (S)i) nA (Sj), as shown in Table 4.
As can be seen from table 4, the common set T ═ {4, 6, 8, 12}, and
thus the system has only one communication domain, and L1＝S0. Similarly, the second, third and fourth stages are divided to obtain L2，L3，L4。
According to the result, an explanation structure model of main influence factors of the wind power engineering cost information can be obtained (as shown in figure 2). The explaining structure model is a four-level step progressive structure, can intuitively and clearly master the logical relationship and the importance degree among main influence factors of the manufacturing cost, is favorable for comprehensively analyzing the manufacturing cost information, analyzing the importance degree of the manufacturing cost information, finding out the logical relationship among the manufacturing cost information and sequencing the manufacturing cost information. Therefore, the key information of the wind power project cost is identified, the data resource basis of the integrated model is formed, and a basis is provided for the data organization form of the subsequent integrated model.
The method can be obtained by explaining a structure model, among 12 main influence factors of the wind power project cost, S1, S2 and S10 are positioned in a second step, have important influence on the wind power project cost in inland mountainous areas, and have great influence on the wind power project cost by reasonably selecting station sites, scientifically and strictly selecting hosts, formulating reasonable transportation paths and large transportation measure schemes. The steps S3, S5, S7, S9 and S11 are located on the third step, have direct influence on the second step, are influenced by the factor of the fourth step, have larger influence on the wind power engineering, make a scientific project fund management system, and strictly and reasonably implement measures such as access system schemes and the like, and also have more important influence on the wind power engineering cost level. The factors S4, S6, S8 and S12 are located at the fourth step, and directly affect the factors of the third step, but are also indirect factors of S0, and after the main factors are intensively analyzed, the potential indirect factors are comprehensively grasped.
When the project to be calculated is a photovoltaic power generation project, according to photovoltaic power generation project design approximate calculation establishment regulations and cost standards (NB/T32027-2016) released by the national energy agency 2016, 1, 6, 1, in 2016, the photovoltaic power generation project is divided into construction auxiliary projects, equipment and installation projects, construction projects and other projects, and the total cost of the project is composed of photovoltaic power generation project cost, other costs, basic preparation cost and construction period interest. The cost of the photovoltaic power generation project is the largest part of the total cost, the rest three parts are smaller and all use the cost as the base number, the composition and the influence factors are shown in figure 3, and the cost part of the photovoltaic power generation project is mainly discussed. The photovoltaic power generation project adopts a project amount list pricing mode, the calculation of the construction security fee needs to maintain the basic price according to relevant policies and regulations of the establishment year and the market price level, then the direct project fee is calculated by multiplying the rated consumption of the human materials and the machines by the corresponding budget unit price, and independent fees generated by owner requirements, government requirements, environmental requirements and access system requirements need to be considered. Therefore, the photovoltaic power generation project cost needs to be analyzed comprehensively according to the annual price level, the project amount and the external conditions.
Starting from the photovoltaic power generation engineering process flow, the manufacturing cost influence factors are obtained through preliminary identification and statistics, a photovoltaic power generation engineering manufacturing cost influence factor system (shown in table 5) is established, the system comprises 17 influence factors, and the main influence factors in the table 5 are represented by B1-B17.
TABLE 5 photovoltaic power generation engineering cost influence factor system
The above B1-B17 were optimized, and the key cost factors Z1-Z7 were determined, as shown in Table 6.
TABLE 6 Main influencing factors of photovoltaic power generation project cost
By the same method for constructing the main influence factors of the wind power engineering cost information, an explanation structure model of the main influence factors of the photovoltaic power generation engineering cost information can be obtained, as shown in fig. 4.
Among the main influence factors of the construction cost of 7 photovoltaic power generation projects obtained by the method for explaining the structural model, Z1 and Z2 are positioned on the second step and have important influence on the construction cost of the photovoltaic power generation projects, and the influence on the construction cost of the photovoltaic power generation projects is great by reasonably selecting sites and scientifically and strictly selecting the types of polysilicon components in the projects. Z4, Z5 are located the third ladder, both have direct influence to the second ladder, receive the influence of fourth ladder factor again, and it is also great to photovoltaic power generation engineering influence, and measures such as strict and reasonable implementation access system scheme also have more important influence to wind-powered electricity generation engineering cost level. Z3, Z6 and Z7 are located at the fourth step, and the factors directly influence the factors of the third step, but are also indirect factors of Z0, and after the main factors are intensively analyzed, the potential indirect factors are comprehensively grasped.
The informatization development of the construction cost of wind power and photovoltaic projects needs a comprehensive technical standard system for support. The integrated advantage of the information resources can be exerted only by collecting, processing, exchanging and sharing the construction cost information under the unified standard. At present, due to the lack of systematic classification and unified planning of information standards, the transmission and processing of information resources are difficult, the advantage of information sharing cannot be achieved, and the comprehensive analysis and research of engineering cost information are not facilitated.
In the current practical work, the application of the project cost information system is usually limited to the level of a single project, the information resources are processed, sorted and stored, and only limited to be used by professionals in the system range, so that individual 'information isolated islands' are formed.
The invention modularizes the wind power and photovoltaic engineering cost information, can analyze the price change trend and the reason thereof for engineering cost personnel, can be used as an important basis for engineering evaluation, an important basis for scheme comparison of designers and a basis for settlement of project managers for business personnel.
The cost information module is constructed according to five aspects of main technical and economic index information, unit project cost index information, subsection project cost information, materials, equipment cost information and market cost information.
The main technical and economic index table of the wind power project mainly comprises basic project profiles such as project names, construction sites, price level year, installed scale, annual energy generation, annual utilization hours, altitude, terrain, fan types, unit capacity, fan foundation types, static investment, construction period interest, total project investment, unit kilowatt investment, unit electric quantity investment, construction auxiliary project investment, equipment and installation project investment, construction project investment, other cost investment, permanent land area, temporary land area (rented) and total construction period, and is shown in the following table 7.
TABLE 7 wind power engineering main technology and economic index table
The main technical and economic index table of the photovoltaic power generation project mainly comprises basic project profiles such as project names, construction sites, price level years, installation scale, annual energy production, annual utilization hours, altitude, terrain, photovoltaic module types, photovoltaic panel single block capacity, static investment, construction period interest, total project investment, kilowatt unit investment, electric quantity unit investment, construction auxiliary project investment, equipment and installation project investment, construction project investment, other cost investment, permanent land area, temporary land area (rented) and total construction period, and is shown in the following table 8.
Table 8 main technical and economic indicators of photovoltaic power generation engineering
The characteristic information of the project in the unit project cost index information mainly collects the contextual factor of the characteristics of the components of the construction project, and reflects the specific project method, construction process, selected material specification, model and other various information adopted by the project. During collection, factors which have large influence on the construction cost and important measurement indexes for distinguishing the similarity degree between projects are mainly selected and are shown in tables 9-15 below.
Table 9 cost index table for current collection overhead line
Table 10 current collection cable line cost index table
Table 11 wind turbine foundation cost index table
Table 12 photovoltaic support foundation cost index table
Table 13 booster station cost index table (conventional booster station/prefabricated cabin booster station)
Table 14 index table for construction cost of building construction
Table 15 road engineering cost index table
The sub-project construction cost information is divided into a construction auxiliary project amount list, a construction project amount list, an installation project amount list, a construction auxiliary project unit price table, a construction project unit price table and an installation project unit price table, which are shown in the following tables 16-21.
TABLE 16 construction auxiliary work volume List
| Serial number | Name (R) | Content providing method and apparatus |
| 1 | Project or expense name | |
| 2 | Item features | |
| 3 | Unit of | |
| 4 | Amount of work | |
| 5 | Project name | |
| 6 | Project numbering |
TABLE 17 list of construction quantities
| Serial number | Name (R) | Content providing method and apparatus |
| 1 | Project or expense name | |
| 2 | Item features | |
| 3 | Unit of | |
| 4 | Amount of work | |
| 5 | Project name | |
| 6 | Project numbering |
Table 18 installation work amount list
| Serial number | Name (R) | Content providing method and apparatus |
| 1 | Project or expense name | |
| 2 | Item features | |
| 3 | Unit of | |
| 4 | Amount of work | |
| 5 | Project name | |
| 6 | Project numbering |
TABLE 19 auxiliary engineering unit price table for construction
| Serial number | Name (R) | Content providing method and apparatus |
| 1 | Name of item | |
| 2 | Unit of | |
| 3 | Univalent (yuan) | |
| 4 | Year of price | |
| 5 | Project name | |
| 6 | Project numbering |
TABLE 20 unit price table for constructional engineering
Table 21 installation project unit price table
| Serial number | Name (R) | Content providing method and apparatus |
| 1 | Name of item | |
| 2 | Unit of | |
| 3 | Univalent (yuan) | |
| 4 | Year of price | |
| 5 | Project name | |
| 6 | Project numbering |
The material and equipment cost information is classified into a device material price table and an equipment price table, as shown in tables 22 to 23 below.
TABLE 22 price table for material of setting
| Serial number | Name (R) | Content providing method and apparatus |
| 1 | Device material name | |
| 2 | Parameters of the material | |
| 3 | Unit of | |
| 4 | Univalent (yuan) | |
| 5 | Year of price | |
| 6 | Project name | |
| 7 | Project numbering |
TABLE 23 price list of equipment
| Serial number | Name (R) | Content providing method and apparatus |
| 1 | Device name | |
| 2 | Parameters of the equipment | |
| 3 | Unit of | |
| 4 | Univalent (yuan) | |
| 5 | Year of price | |
| 6 | Project name | |
| 7 | Project numbering |
The market price information mainly includes basic market information on the local construction market such as material price, labor price, machine (equipment) lease price, etc., as shown in the following tables 24 to 26.
Table 24 x year x month x region artificial price information table
| Serial number | Name (R) | Content providing method and apparatus |
| 1 | Engineering Properties | |
| 2 | Name of work and seed | |
| 3 | Unit of | |
| 4 | Univalent (yuan) | |
| 5 | Location of the place | |
| 6 | Time of release | |
| 7 | Source of price | |
| 8 | Remarks for note |
TABLE 25 XNERAL XNEY XELX AREA MATERIAL VALUE INFORMATION TABLE
| Serial number | Name (R) | Content providing method and apparatus |
| 1 | Name of Material | |
| 2 | Specification of | |
| 3 | Unit of | |
| 4 | Univalent (yuan) | |
| 5 | Location of the place | |
| 6 | Time of release | |
| 7 | Source of price | |
| 8 | Remarks for note |
TABLE 26X year X month X district machinery lease price information Table
| Serial number | Name (R) | Content providing method and apparatus |
| 1 | Mechanical equipment name | |
| 2 | Specification and model | |
| 3 | Unit of | |
| 4 | Univalent (yuan) | |
| 5 | Location of the place | |
| 6 | Time of release | |
| 7 | Source of price | |
| 8 | Remarks for note |
The invention induces the factors influencing the construction cost by deeply analyzing the construction cost characteristics of the wind power and photovoltaic projects; and (3) modeling and analyzing the main influence factors by using an explanation structure model, analyzing the importance degree of the main influence factors, finding out the logical relationship between the main influence factors and sequencing the main influence factors. A new construction cost information organization form is constructed by applying a model method of system engineering, and an index module which accords with the engineering characteristics is established in the new energy field after the thermal power engineering quota design reference recruitment index. Can provide certain reference and support for the engineering cost analysis work.
The invention perfects the accumulation of project data according to the organization form of the constructed project cost information, can analyze the price change trend and the reason thereof for project cost personnel, can be used as an important basis for project evaluation, an important basis for project plan comparison for business personnel and a basis for settlement of project management personnel.
Those not described in detail in this specification are within the skill of the art.
Claims (10)
1. A project cost estimation method is characterized in that: the method comprises the following steps:
s1, preliminarily identifying and counting main influence factors for obtaining the engineering project to be calculated;
s2, carrying out modeling analysis on the obtained main influence factors, and selecting key influence factors from the main influence factors; evaluating and analyzing the importance degree of each key influence factor, finding out the logic relationship among the key influence factors and sequencing the logic relationship to obtain the key influence factors and the weight relationship of the key influence factors;
and S3, selecting index information and price information of the project to be calculated based on the key influence factors and the weight relationship thereof, and obtaining the cost evaluation value of the project to be calculated through a cost information module.
2. A construction cost estimation method according to claim 1, characterized in that: in the step S2, the main influence factors are classified and analyzed, and the hall structure analysis joint experts are used to score, so as to determine the key influence factors.
3. A construction cost estimation method according to claim 1, characterized in that: in step S2, the construction cost control is set as a key problem for interpreting the structural model; selecting a leading factor influencing a key problem from the main influencing factors as a key influencing factor; listing the relevance of each leading factor; establishing an adjacent matrix and a reachable matrix according to the correlation of each leading element; after decomposing the reachable matrix, establishing a structural model; establishing an explanation structure model according to the structure model; the explained structure model is a four-level step progressive structure and is used for representing the logical relationship and the importance degree among key influence factors.
4. A construction cost estimation method according to claim 3, characterized in that: in step S2, performing overall evaluation on the key influence factors to obtain an adjacency matrix, and performing boolean operation on the adjacency matrix to obtain a reachable matrix; and carrying out interval division, interstage division and strong connection block division according to the reachable matrix to obtain an explained structure model.
5. A construction cost estimation method according to claim 3, characterized in that: in the step S2, the key influence element S is setiThe reachable set of elements is defined as element SiWith R (S)i) Represents; r (S)i)＝{Si∈N|mij1, wherein R (S)i) Representing the Sth in the reachable matrixiAll the elements corresponding to the columns with the matrix elements of 1 in the rows are gathered; n represents a set of all nodes; m isijIs the association value of inode, mij1 denotes that node i is associated with node j, i.e. R (S)i) The set of representations is the element SiThe upper set of (2);
the key influencing element S is about to be reachediIs defined as a key influencing element SiThe antecedent cause of (A) is collected asi) Represents; a (S)i)＝{Sj∈N|mji＝1}，A(Si) From the S th in the matrixjAll matrix elements in the column are elements corresponding to the row with 1, and the set represented by the elements is the key influence element SiA lower set of;
the region division means that the relationship between the elements is divided into reachable and unreachable, the connectivity of the elements is judged, and the key influence elements are divided into a plurality of parts with relationship; for elements in a common set, if two key influencing elements SiAnd SjIn the same section, then
Otherwise, they belong to two communication domains respectively;
the inter-level division means that all elements in the system are divided into different levels by taking the reachable matrix as a criterion; if L is used1，L2，...，LkRepresenting the order from top to bottom, then there are k orders of the system, and the inter-stage division l (n) can be expressed by the following formula: l (n) ═ L1，L2，...，Lk]。
6. A construction cost estimation method according to claim 1, characterized in that: the project to be calculated is a wind power project; starting from a wind power engineering process flow, dividing a wind power engineering project into a construction auxiliary project, equipment and installation project, a construction project and other projects, wherein the total cost of the construction auxiliary project, the equipment and installation project, the construction project and the other projects comprises wind power engineering cost, other costs, basic preparation cost and interest in a construction period; the wind power engineering cost is the largest part of the total cost, and the rest three parts are smaller and take the cost as the base number; the wind power plant engineering cost adopts an engineering quantity list pricing mode, wherein the calculation of the construction security fee needs to maintain the basic price according to the related policies and regulations of the establishment year and the market price level; then, according to the rated human-machine consumption, multiplying the corresponding budget unit price to calculate the direct wind power project cost, and considering the independent cost generated by the owner demand, the government demand, the environment demand and the access system demand; and comprehensively analyzing the annual price level, the project quantity of the wind power project and the external conditions to obtain main influence factors of the project to be calculated.
7. A construction cost estimation method according to claim 6, wherein: the main influencing factors include: the method comprises the following steps of wind power plant site selection, demand identification of investors, planning period market price level fluctuation, fan equipment selection, fan foundation form, station area process arrangement, station area civil engineering structure, station area foundation processing scheme, booster station design capacity and equipment selection, cable laying scheme, typical design execution condition, control protection equipment configuration scheme, current collection line form, geographical position condition and topographic geology, sending-out and accessing system condition, investor additional planning principle and national policy document, station entering and in-station road length, capital allocation case and interest rate change condition, transportation path and scheme selection, local preferential policy related to land acquisition and renting and the like, cost change risk estimation and whether the design scheme is effectively optimized.
8. A construction cost estimation method according to claim 1, characterized in that: the project to be calculated is a photovoltaic power generation project, starting from a photovoltaic power generation project process flow, the photovoltaic power generation project is divided into construction auxiliary projects, equipment and installation projects, building projects and other projects, and the total cost of the project is composed of photovoltaic power generation project cost, other costs, basic preparation cost and construction period interest; the cost of the photovoltaic power generation project is the largest part of the total cost, and the rest three parts are smaller and take the cost as the base number; the photovoltaic power generation project cost adopts a project amount list pricing mode, wherein the calculation of the construction security fee needs to maintain the basic price according to relevant policies and regulations of the establishment year and the market price level; and then, calculating direct wind power project cost by multiplying the rated human-material machine consumption by the corresponding budget unit price, and comprehensively analyzing the annual price level, the photovoltaic power generation project quantity and the external conditions to obtain the main influence factors of the project to be calculated by considering independent cost generated by owner requirements, government requirements, environmental requirements and access system requirements.
9. A construction cost estimation method according to claim 8, wherein: the main influencing factors include: the method comprises the following steps of photovoltaic electric field site selection, demand identification of investors, establishment market price level fluctuation, polycrystalline silicon photovoltaic module model selection, station area process arrangement, station area civil engineering structure, booster station design capacity and equipment model selection, cable laying scheme, typical design execution condition, control protection equipment configuration scheme, geographical position condition and topographic geology, sending and accessing system condition, investor additional establishment principle, capital distribution ratio and interest rate change condition, local preferential policy related to land requisition and renting and the like, cost change risk estimation, and whether the design scheme is effectively optimized or not.
10. A construction cost estimation method according to claim 1, characterized in that: the index information and price information of the project to be calculated comprise main technical and economic index information, unit project cost index information, subsection project cost information, material and equipment cost information and market price information.
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