CN112884524B - Product demand optimization method and device - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a method and a device for optimizing product demands, wherein the method comprises the following steps: acquiring the accumulated sales of the current sales season of the current annual target product and the contemporaneous sales of the historical annual target product; acquiring a demand gap amount of a target product based on the accumulated sales amount and the contemporaneous sales amount; and based on the demand gap amount, transferring and correcting the demand gap amount to a sales period after the current sales season. The invention can realize the prediction of the sales demand and pertinently optimize the production plan, and avoid the situation that the production of the target product cannot meet the sales demand or the production is excessive.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of computers, in particular to a method and a device for optimizing product requirements.
Background
There are a number of products sold in the market today in a manner related to natural years, and at the same time, the demands of the products are also closely related to the agricultural years, such as agricultural and sideline products. In addition, the environmental, emergency and traffic conditions may also cause the sales and demand of the product to change. These factors can result in an enterprise not being able to produce or stock products well on a real-time basis. If the judgment of the sales demand in the current year is larger than the actual demand, a larger stock problem may occur, or the situation of insufficient productivity occurs; if the sales demand is less than the actual demand, there is a loss of product production or reserves that do not meet the actual sales.
Therefore, how to predict and optimize the actual demand of the products sold by enterprises becomes an important premise for product production planning.
Disclosure of Invention
In view of the above problems, the invention provides a product demand optimization method and device, which can predict sales demands and pointedly optimize production plans, thereby avoiding the situation that the production of target products cannot meet the sales demands or the production is excessive.
In a first aspect, the present application provides, by way of an embodiment, the following technical solutions:
a method of product demand optimization, comprising:
acquiring the accumulated sales of the current sales season of the current annual target product and the contemporaneous sales of the historical annual target product; acquiring a demand gap amount of the target product based on the accumulated sales amount and the contemporaneous sales amount; and based on the demand gap amount, performing transfer correction on the demand gap amount to a sales period after the current sales season.
Optionally, the obtaining the demand gap amount of the target product based on the accumulated sales amount and the contemporaneous sales amount includes:
acquiring a first proportion of the accumulated sales volume to the total sales volume of the historical years, and acquiring a second proportion of the contemporaneous sales volume to the total sales volume of the historical years; judging whether the first proportion or the second proportion is larger than a preset proportion or not; if yes, determining that the demand of the target product is transferred, and obtaining the demand gap amount of the target product based on the accumulated sales amount and the contemporaneous sales amount.
Optionally, the obtaining the demand gap amount of the target product based on the accumulated sales amount and the contemporaneous sales amount includes:
based on the contemporaneous sales of a plurality of historical years, obtaining a homonymous growth rate; obtaining an expected sales volume for the current season of sale based on the recent contemporaneous sales volume for the historical year and the rate of increase; and obtaining the demand gap amount of the target product based on the difference value between the accumulated sales amount and the expected sales amount.
Optionally, the transferring and correcting the demand gap amount to the sales period after the current season based on the demand gap amount includes:
acquiring fluctuation standard deviation of contemporaneous sales in historical years; obtaining a fluctuation threshold value based on the fluctuation standard deviation and a preset fluctuation coefficient; judging whether the required gap amount is larger than the fluctuation threshold value or not; if yes, determining that the demand of the target product is transferred, and transferring and correcting the demand gap amount to the sales period after the current sale season based on the demand gap amount.
Optionally, the transferring and correcting the demand gap amount to the sales period after the current season based on the demand gap amount includes:
judging whether the required notch amount is larger than a preset protection constant or not; if yes, determining that the demand of the target product is transferred, and transferring and correcting the demand gap amount to the sales period after the current sale season based on the demand gap amount.
Optionally, if the first ratio is greater than a preset ratio; the transferring and correcting the demand gap amount to the sales period after the current sales season based on the demand gap amount comprises the following steps:
obtaining a demand allowance ratio corresponding to a sales period after demand transfer of the target product occurs in a historical year; the demand allowance proportion is the proportion of the demand allowance corresponding to the sales period after the demand transfer to the actual predicted amount; based on the demand allowance proportion, reducing and transferring the demand gap amount to a sales period after the current season; wherein the reduced transfer represents a reduction in sales demand corresponding to a sales period after the current sales season.
Optionally, if the second ratio is greater than a preset ratio; the transferring and correcting the demand gap amount to the sales period after the current sales season based on the demand gap amount comprises the following steps:
acquiring the transfer time length and the transfer times of the demand transfer of the target product in the historical year; based on the transfer time length and the transfer times, obtaining transfer proportions of the required notch quantity corresponding to different transfer time lengths; filling and transferring the demand gap amount to a sales period after the current selling season based on the transfer proportion; wherein the shim shift indicates an increase in sales demand corresponding to a sales period after the current sales season.
In a second aspect, based on the same inventive concept, the present application provides, by way of an embodiment, the following technical solutions:
a product demand optimizing apparatus comprising:
the acquisition module is used for acquiring the accumulated sales of the current sales season of the current annual target product and the contemporaneous sales of the historical annual target product; the gap confirmation module is used for obtaining the required gap amount of the target product based on the accumulated sales amount and the contemporaneous sales amount; and the transfer module is used for carrying out transfer correction on the demand gap amount to the sales period after the current sales season based on the demand gap amount.
In a third aspect, based on the same inventive concept, the present application provides, by way of an embodiment, the following technical solutions:
a product demand optimizing device comprising a processor and a memory, the memory coupled to the processor, the memory storing instructions that, when executed by the processor, cause the product demand optimizing device to perform the steps of the method of any one of the preceding aspects.
According to a fourth aspect, based on the same inventive concept, the present application provides, by way of an embodiment, the following technical solutions:
a computer readable storage medium having stored thereon a computer program which when executed by a processor performs the steps of the method of any of the first aspects above.
The product demand optimization method and device provided by the embodiment of the invention are characterized in that the accumulated sales of the current sales season of the current annual target product and the contemporaneous sales of the historical annual target product are obtained; then, based on the accumulated sales volume and the contemporaneous sales volume, obtaining the demand gap volume of the target product; and finally, based on the demand gap amount, transferring and correcting the demand gap amount to a sales period after the current sales season, so that the sales demand is predicted, the production plan can be optimized in a targeted manner, and the situation that the production of a target product cannot meet the sales demand or the production is excessive is avoided.
The foregoing description is only an overview of the present invention, and is intended to be implemented in accordance with the teachings of the present invention in order that the same may be more clearly understood and to make the same and other objects, features and advantages of the present invention more readily apparent.
Drawings
In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention, the drawings required for the description of the embodiments will be briefly described below, and it is obvious that the drawings in the following description are some embodiments of the present invention, and other drawings may be obtained according to these drawings without inventive effort for a person skilled in the art. In the drawings:
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a method for optimizing product demand according to a first embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 2 shows a schematic structural diagram of a product demand optimizing device according to a second embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
Exemplary embodiments of the present disclosure will be described in more detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings. While exemplary embodiments of the present disclosure are shown in the drawings, it should be understood that the present disclosure may be embodied in various forms and should not be limited to the embodiments set forth herein. Rather, these embodiments are provided so that this disclosure will be thorough and complete, and will fully convey the scope of the disclosure to those skilled in the art.
First embodiment
Referring to fig. 1, a flowchart of a method for optimizing product demand according to a first embodiment of the present invention is shown. The product demand optimization method comprises the following steps:
step S10: the accumulated sales of the current sales season of the current annual target product and the contemporaneous sales of the historical annual target product are obtained.
In step S10, the target product is generally a product having a strong off-season and a weak off-season, and there is a certain seasonal fluctuation each year, for example, the product changes in the strong off-season and the weak off-season in the calendar year as the calendar year advances or delays. For example, most agricultural products, agricultural by-products, chemical products related to agricultural products, and the like; specifically, fertilizers, pesticides, beverages, fruits, vegetables, and the like can be used. Also for example, products associated with traditional holidays, such as salute, candy, etc. Other products, such as industrial fittings, and the like. The specific type of the target product is not limited in this embodiment.
The current year is the year of the calendar year. The current units in the market may be specifically the week, month, and quarter according to the sensitivity of different target products to sales needs. For example, the target product may be more sensitive to sales demand at different off-season times and the current off-season units may be weeks, otherwise it may be months or quarters.
In this embodiment, the selling season is described in units of months, that is, the current selling season is the current month of the current year.
The accumulated sales volume is the sales volume of the target product accumulated to the current month in the current year. The contemporaneous sales of the historical year is the sales of the target product accumulated to the current month in one year of the historical year, for example, the current year is 2021, the current month is 2 months, and the accumulated sales is the sum of sales of 1 month and 2 months in 2021; the historical years are 2019 and 2020, and the contemporaneous sales are the sum of sales of 1 month and 2 months in 2019 and the sum of sales of 1 month and 2 months in 2020, respectively.
It should be noted that, in this embodiment, the target product is a product that is sold for more than two years, so that the target product can be ensured to have a reasonable stable period.
Step S20: and obtaining the demand gap amount of the target product based on the accumulated sales amount and the contemporaneous sales amount.
In step S20, the sales triggering determination of the optimization adjustment is also required before the required gap amount is obtained. Since in the actual production sales process, advances or lags in sales demand may occur. Therefore, in this embodiment, the following implementation manner is provided, that is, step S20 may include:
step S21: a first proportion of the accumulated sales to the total historical annual sales is obtained, and a second proportion of the contemporaneous sales to the total historical annual sales is obtained.
In step S21, the case where the actual sales demand is advanced can be covered by the first ratio. If the actual sales demand is lagged, the distortion of the judgment of the change of the demand gap caused by the judgment user is carried out according to the accumulated sales quantity, and the situation of the lagged actual sales demand can be covered through the second proportion.
Step S22: and judging whether the first proportion or the second proportion is larger than a preset proportion.
Step S23: if yes, determining that the demand of the target product is transferred, and obtaining the demand gap amount of the target product based on the accumulated sales amount and the contemporaneous sales amount.
In steps S22-S23, for seasonal target products, their corresponding off-season is typically within 6 months, thus 100%/6=16.67%. The preset proportion in the present embodiment may be set to an arbitrary value of 15% or more. For example, 15%, 16.67%, 20%, 30%, 40%, 50%, etc. The preset proportion can be adjusted according to the sale period of the season, for example, when the season of the target product is 3 months, the preset proportion can be about 30%, such as 28%, 30%, 32%, and the like. In the embodiment, whether sales demand transfer correction is performed is judged by proportion screening of sales volume, so that correction of low proportion sales volume when sales season transfer does not occur can be eliminated, and correction efficiency and reliability are improved. Because at the time of low-proportion sales, the production load on the enterprise is not large, and at the time of sales at the time of low-proportion sales, the difference in sales fluctuation is not caused by the advance or the retard of sales demand, it is unnecessary to make transition correction of sales demand. For example, the sales of a certain product in 2020 is 1000 tons, the total sales in 2020, 1 and 2 months is 10 tons, and the total sales in 2021, 1 and 2 months is 20 tons; the sales increase in 2021 was 100% relative to 2020, but the proportion was less than 10% of the total. In this case, it is considered that the increased sales margin is a positive sales fluctuation, and the sales demand is not shifted, and no shift correction is required.
Further, the step of obtaining the required notch amount of the target product is as follows:
step S201: based on the contemporaneous sales of a plurality of historical years, obtaining a homonymous growth rate;
for example, describing step S201, if the current season 2021 is 2 months, two or more continuous expected sales in the same period of historical years may be obtained, such as cumulative expected sales in year 2020, 2019, and 2018, respectively, in month 1 and month 2. Thus, an average growth rate of the two or more consecutive historical annual phases is obtained, which may be referred to as a homonymous growth rate.
Step S202: and obtaining the expected sales of the current sales season based on the latest contemporaneous sales of the historical year and the contemporaneous growth rate.
In step S202, the expected sales in the current season=the contemporaneous sales in the last elapsed years× (1+ homonymous growth rate).
Step S203: and obtaining the demand gap amount of the target product based on the difference value between the accumulated sales amount and the expected sales amount.
In step S203, there is a case where the demand gap amount is greater than the expected sales amount, and the corresponding first ratio is greater than the preset ratio, which indicates that the sales demand in the current sales season is advanced. At this time, the demand gap amount is a sales gap after the sales demand is advanced. And when the demand gap amount is smaller than the expected sales amount, the corresponding second proportion is larger than the preset proportion, so that the sales demand lag in the current sales season is indicated. At this time, the demand gap amount is a sales gap with a lag in sales demand.
Through the steps S201-S203, the demand gap amount of the current selling season can be accurately estimated, and the sales transfer amount can be more accurately optimized.
Step S30: and based on the demand gap amount, performing transfer correction on the demand gap amount to a sales period after the current sales season.
In step S30, the corrected trigger condition may be further determined according to the required notch amount, and the above-mentioned corrected trigger judgment of the accumulated sales is combined to realize hierarchical screening, so as to achieve more accurate optimization judgment. In this embodiment, the following two trigger conditions are provided to perform trigger judgment. In the implementation process, the following two modified trigger judgment modes can be alternatively executed. Or can be executed sequentially, and the sequence is not limited. When the two triggering conditions are satisfied at the same time, the sales demand transfer correction can be performed. Therefore, the accuracy of sales demand transfer correction can be ensured, and the loss to enterprises is avoided. Specifically, the corrected trigger judgment process is as follows:
1. triggering judgment is carried out based on the fluctuation standard deviation, and the steps are as follows:
step S31: and obtaining the fluctuation standard deviation of the contemporaneous sales in the historical years.
Step S32: and obtaining a fluctuation threshold value based on the fluctuation standard deviation and a preset fluctuation coefficient.
Step S33: and judging whether the demand gap amount is larger than the fluctuation threshold value or not.
Step S34: if yes, determining that the demand of the target product is transferred, and transferring and correcting the demand gap amount to the sales period after the current sale season based on the demand gap amount.
In steps S31-S34, the standard deviation of the fluctuation of the contemporaneous sales in the historical year indicates the fluctuation situation of the contemporaneous sales, for example, when the current year is 2021, a standard deviation is obtained according to the contemporaneous sales corresponding to 2018-2020, that is, the fluctuation standard deviation. When the fluctuation standard deviation is acquired, the number of history years is not limited. In the specific implementation process, different degrees of judgment may occur for different products or different production conditions, so that the fluctuation coefficient in the embodiment can take a value of 1.28-1.96, and thus, the effectiveness judgment of different degrees can be satisfied. For example, when the fluctuation coefficients are 1.28, 1.64 and 1.96, the distribution probabilities of the positive-too-low distribution are 90%, 95% and 97.5%, respectively, so that the method can comprise at least three degrees of effectiveness judgment, and is beneficial to being applicable to different target products. The demand gap amount can be converted to a certain confidence level through the fluctuation coefficient so that the sales demand is advanced or lagged. For example, in this embodiment, the fluctuation coefficient preferably takes a value of 1.64, at which time the fluctuation threshold=the fluctuation standard deviation×1.64, that is, when the demand gap amount exceeds the fluctuation threshold, it is indicated that the current sales gap amount is not a regular fluctuation, and the advance or the retard of the sales demand has been made on the 90% confidence level. Therefore, the fluctuation threshold value can be adaptively modified according to different target products and different production conditions through adjustment of the fluctuation coefficient, the accuracy of judging whether the sales demand is transferred is improved, and the erroneous judgment of the fluctuation of the normal sales demand is avoided.
2. Trigger judgment is performed based on a protection constant judgment.
This determination may be performed independently, that is, in the present embodiment, the trigger determination based on the guard constant determination is performed without performing the trigger determination based on the fluctuation standard deviation in the above-described point 1. However, it is preferable that the trigger judgment based on the fluctuation standard deviation at the 1 st point is performed before or after the completion of the above-described trigger judgment at the 1 st point, for example, when the judgment at the 1 st point is before, the judgment at the 2 nd point is performed at present when the judgment result is yes; when the judgment at the 2 nd point is before, the judgment at the 1 st point can be executed when the judgment result is yes.
The judging steps are as follows:
step S35: judging whether the required notch amount is larger than a preset protection constant or not;
step S36: if yes, determining that the demand of the target product is transferred, and transferring and correcting the demand gap amount to the sales period after the current sale season based on the demand gap amount.
By the judgment of steps S35 to S36, the product with a particularly small sales amount can be prevented from triggering the transfer correction. Because the percentage fluctuation is very severe when the value is particularly small, this part of the product is not large in terms of production load because sales are too small, without considering transfer corrections.
And when the judgment of the 1 st and/or the 2 nd point is carried out and the judgment result is yes, namely the requirement of the target product is determined to be transferred, specific transfer correction can be carried out. Based on the condition that the current sales demand is transferred, different transfer corrections can be performed in the following ways:
1. if the first proportion is larger than the preset proportion, the sales demand is advanced in the current sales season. The transfer correction process is as follows:
step S301a: obtaining a demand allowance ratio corresponding to a sales period after demand transfer of the target product occurs in a historical year; the demand allowance proportion is the proportion of the demand allowance corresponding to the sales period after the demand transfer to the actual predicted amount.
Step S302a: based on the demand allowance proportion, reducing and transferring the demand gap amount to a sales period after the current season; wherein the reduced transfer represents a reduction in sales demand corresponding to a sales period after the current sales season.
In steps S301a-S302a, since the demand deducts the portion of the sales demand in advance from the sales period thereafter, the reduction transfer of sales advance is made by the nearest month as much as possible in the present embodiment. Because not all sales will advance with the season of sale, there will still be a small fraction of sales that will stabilize within each sales period, the fraction sales demand being the demand margin. Therefore, the part of stable sales requirements are required to be reserved, and the reduction deduction is performed after the sales requirements are reserved for the subsequent sales period of the current sales season, so that each sales period can be ensured to reasonably supply target products, and the reliability is improved. The use of transfer proportions is avoided, as the use of transfer proportions for deduction may occur when the sales volume for the next sales period is insufficient to fill the transfer difference.
When the reduced transfer is performed, the period of transfer may be limited. For example, a reduced transition duration threshold is set. When the duration of the transfer exceeds the duration threshold, the curtailment transfer needs to be stopped even if the demand gap amount is not consumed. Because, in most seasonal products, the time span of the sales demand advance is limited. For example, when the target product is an agricultural product, the time span of the sales demand advance is less than 6 months. When the target product is of other types, the time threshold can be determined according to the actual situation, and the method is not limited.
Further, in this embodiment, the required margin proportion may be an average of margin proportions corresponding to a plurality of sales periods. The effective demand margin for each period can also be ensured for the maximum value of the margin ratios of a plurality of sales periods or for a plurality of demand margin ratios of different sales periods. The demand margin proportion may be exemplified as a mean value of margin proportions corresponding to a plurality of sales periods, as follows:
if the target product is an agricultural product, the required allowance ratio is 20%. The upper demand limit which can be deducted in each month accounts for 80% of the predicted value of the month, and the demand gap amount is sequentially continued until the demand gap amount is consumed or until the demand gap amount reaches 6 months and stops when the demand gap amount is not consumed, because the season of the agricultural products is not easy to span half a year. If the current selling season is 2 months and the advanced demand gap amount is 100 ten thousand tons, the predicted original sales demand amounts corresponding to 3 months, 4 months and 5 months are 50 ten thousand tons, and the 3 months, 4 months and 5 months can be reduced and adjusted according to 80 percent, and 40 ten thousand tons, 40 ten thousand tons and 20 ten thousand tons are respectively reduced; namely, the sales demand of 3 months, 4 months and 5 months is adjusted to 10 ten thousand tons, 10 ten thousand tons and 30 ten thousand tons, so that the optimization of the advance transfer of sales demands is realized.
2. If the second ratio is greater than the preset ratio, namely, the current sales demand hysteresis occurs. The transfer correction process is as follows:
step S301b: and acquiring the transfer time length and the transfer times of the demand transfer of the target product in the historical year.
Step S302b: and obtaining the transfer proportion of the required gap amount corresponding to different transfer durations based on the transfer duration and the transfer times.
Step S303b: filling and transferring the demand gap amount to a sales period after the current selling season based on the transfer proportion; wherein the shim shift indicates an increase in sales demand corresponding to a sales period after the current sales season.
In steps S301b-S303b, the demand transfer is a hysteresis of the sales demand. The transfer duration and the transfer times of the demand transfer represent the corresponding times of the transfer for a certain duration. For example, the number of transfers obtained after counting one or more historical years is 50; wherein when the transfer time period is 1 month, the number of times of transfer is 35; when the transfer time is 2 months, the number of times of transfer is 10; when the transfer period was 3 months, the number of times of transfer occurred was 5 times. The transfer ratio of the required gap amount to the different transfer durations is 7:2:1. If the current selling season is 2 months and the required gap amount is 100 ten thousand tons, 70 ten thousand tons, 20 ten thousand tons and 10 ten thousand tons can be respectively increased in 3 months, 4 months and 5 months. Therefore, reasonable transfer of sales demands of the current year based on historical data is achieved, and the situation that product supply cannot be met or extrusion is caused to productivity is avoided.
In summary, in the product demand optimization method provided in this embodiment, the accumulated sales of the current sales season of the current annual target product and the contemporaneous sales of the historical annual target product are obtained; then, based on the accumulated sales volume and the contemporaneous sales volume, obtaining the demand gap volume of the target product; and finally, based on the demand gap amount, transferring and correcting the demand gap amount to a sales period after the current sales season, so that the sales demand is predicted, the production plan can be optimized in a targeted manner, and the situation that the production of a target product cannot meet the sales demand or the production is excessive is avoided.
Second embodiment
Referring to fig. 2, a second embodiment of the present invention provides a product demand optimizing method 300 based on the same inventive concept. Fig. 2 shows a schematic structural diagram of a product demand optimizing device 300 according to a second embodiment of the present invention. The product demand optimizing apparatus 300 includes:
an obtaining module 301, configured to obtain a cumulative sales of a current sales season of a target product in a current year and a contemporaneous sales of a historical year; the gap confirmation module 302 is configured to obtain a required gap amount of the target product based on the accumulated sales amount and the contemporaneous sales amount; and a transferring module 303, configured to transfer and correct the demand gap amount to a sales period after the current sales season based on the demand gap amount.
As an alternative embodiment, the notch confirmation module 302 is specifically configured to:
acquiring a first proportion of the accumulated sales volume to the total sales volume of the historical years, and acquiring a second proportion of the contemporaneous sales volume to the total sales volume of the historical years; judging whether the first proportion or the second proportion is larger than a preset proportion or not; if yes, determining that the demand of the target product is transferred, and obtaining the demand gap amount of the target product based on the accumulated sales amount and the contemporaneous sales amount.
As an alternative embodiment, the notch confirmation module 302 is further specifically configured to:
based on the contemporaneous sales of a plurality of historical years, obtaining a homonymous growth rate; obtaining an expected sales volume for the current season of sale based on the recent contemporaneous sales volume for the historical year and the rate of increase; and obtaining the demand gap amount of the target product based on the difference value between the accumulated sales amount and the expected sales amount.
As an alternative embodiment, the transferring module 303 is specifically configured to:
acquiring fluctuation standard deviation of contemporaneous sales in historical years; obtaining a fluctuation threshold value based on the fluctuation standard deviation and a preset fluctuation coefficient; judging whether the required gap amount is larger than the fluctuation threshold value or not; if yes, determining that the demand of the target product is transferred, and transferring and correcting the demand gap amount to the sales period after the current sale season based on the demand gap amount.
As an alternative embodiment, the transferring module 303 is specifically configured to:
judging whether the required notch amount is larger than a preset protection constant or not; if yes, determining that the demand of the target product is transferred, and transferring and correcting the demand gap amount to the sales period after the current sale season based on the demand gap amount.
As an alternative embodiment, if the first ratio is greater than a preset ratio; the transfer module 303 is further specifically configured to:
obtaining a demand allowance ratio corresponding to a sales period after demand transfer of the target product occurs in a historical year; the demand allowance proportion is the proportion of the demand allowance corresponding to the sales period after the demand transfer to the actual predicted amount; based on the demand allowance proportion, reducing and transferring the demand gap amount to a sales period after the current season; wherein the reduced transfer represents a reduction in sales demand corresponding to a sales period after the current sales season.
As an alternative embodiment, if the second ratio is greater than a preset ratio; the transfer module 303 is further specifically configured to:
acquiring the transfer time length and the transfer times of the demand transfer of the target product in the historical year; based on the transfer time length and the transfer times, obtaining transfer proportions of the required notch quantity corresponding to different transfer time lengths; filling and transferring the demand gap amount to a sales period after the current selling season based on the transfer proportion; wherein the shim shift indicates an increase in sales demand corresponding to a sales period after the current sales season.
It should be noted that, the specific implementation and the technical effects of the product requirement optimizing 300 provided in the embodiment of the present invention are the same as those of the foregoing method embodiment, and for the sake of brevity, reference may be made to the corresponding content in the foregoing method embodiment where the apparatus embodiment portion is not mentioned.
Third embodiment
Based on the same inventive concept, a third embodiment of the present application provides a product demand optimization device comprising a processor and a memory, the memory being coupled to the processor, the memory storing instructions which, when executed by the processor, cause the product demand optimization device to perform the steps of the method of any of the first embodiments described above.
It should be noted that, for the sake of brevity, reference may be made to the corresponding contents in the foregoing method embodiments for the description of the device embodiment portion where the specific implementation and the technical effects of the product requirement optimization provided in the embodiment of the present invention are the same as those of the foregoing method embodiments.
Fourth embodiment
Based on the same inventive concept, a fourth embodiment of the present invention also provides a computer readable storage medium having stored thereon a computer program, characterized in that the program when executed by a processor implements the steps of the method of any of the above first embodiments.
It should be noted that, in the computer readable storage medium provided in the embodiment of the present invention, the specific implementation and the technical effects of each step implemented when the program is executed by the processor are the same as those of the foregoing method embodiment, and for brevity, reference may be made to the corresponding content in the foregoing method embodiment for the sake of brevity.
The term "and/or" as used herein is merely one association relationship describing the associated object, meaning that there may be three relationships, e.g., a and/or B, which may represent: a exists alone, A and B exist together, and B exists alone. In addition, the character "/" herein generally indicates that the front and rear associated objects are an "or" relationship; the word "comprising" does not exclude the presence of elements or steps not listed in a claim. The word "a" or "an" preceding an element does not exclude the presence of a plurality of such elements. The invention may be implemented by means of hardware comprising several distinct elements, and by means of a suitably programmed computer. In the unit claims enumerating several means, several of these means may be embodied by one and the same item of hardware. The use of the words first, second, third, etc. do not denote any order. These words may be interpreted as names.
It will be appreciated by those skilled in the art that embodiments of the present invention may be provided as a method, system, or computer program product. Accordingly, the present invention may take the form of an entirely hardware embodiment, an entirely software embodiment or an embodiment combining software and hardware aspects. Furthermore, the present invention may take the form of a computer program product embodied on one or more computer-usable storage media (including, but not limited to, disk storage, CD-ROM, optical storage, and the like) having computer-usable program code embodied therein.
The present invention is described with reference to flowchart illustrations and/or block diagrams of methods, apparatus (systems) and computer program products according to embodiments of the invention. It will be understood that each flow and/or block of the flowchart illustrations and/or block diagrams, and combinations of flows and/or blocks in the flowchart illustrations and/or block diagrams, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions may be provided to a processor of a general purpose computer, special purpose computer, embedded processor, or other programmable data processing apparatus to produce a machine, such that the instructions, which execute via the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing apparatus, create means for implementing the functions specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer-readable memory that can direct a computer or other programmable data processing apparatus to function in a particular manner, such that the instructions stored in the computer-readable memory produce an article of manufacture including instruction means which implement the function specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
These computer program instructions may also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing apparatus to cause a series of operational steps to be performed on the computer or other programmable apparatus to produce a computer implemented process such that the instructions which execute on the computer or other programmable apparatus provide steps for implementing the functions specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
While preferred embodiments of the present invention have been described, additional variations and modifications in those embodiments may occur to those skilled in the art once they learn of the basic inventive concepts. It is therefore intended that the following claims be interpreted as including the preferred embodiments and all such alterations and modifications as fall within the scope of the invention.
It will be apparent to those skilled in the art that various modifications and variations can be made to the present invention without departing from the spirit or scope of the invention. Thus, it is intended that the present invention also include such modifications and alterations insofar as they come within the scope of the appended claims or the equivalents thereof.
Claims (6)
1. A method of optimizing product demand, comprising:
acquiring the accumulated sales of the current sales season of the current annual target product and the contemporaneous sales of the historical annual target product;
based on the accumulated sales and the contemporaneous sales, obtaining a demand gap amount for the target product includes:
based on the contemporaneous sales of a plurality of historical years, obtaining a homonymous growth rate;
obtaining an expected sales volume for the current season of sale based on the recent contemporaneous sales volume for the historical year and the rate of increase;
acquiring a first proportion of the accumulated sales volume to the total sales volume of the historical years, and acquiring a second proportion of the contemporaneous sales volume to the total sales volume of the historical years;
judging whether the first proportion or the second proportion is larger than a preset proportion or not;
if yes, determining that the demand of the target product is transferred, and obtaining the demand gap amount of the target product based on the difference value of the accumulated sales amount and the expected sales amount;
based on the demand gap amount, performing transfer correction on the demand gap amount to a sales period after the current season of sale, including:
acquiring fluctuation standard deviation of contemporaneous sales in historical years;
obtaining a fluctuation threshold value based on the fluctuation standard deviation and a preset fluctuation coefficient;
judging whether the required gap amount is larger than the fluctuation threshold value or not;
if yes, determining that the demand of the target product is transferred, and transferring and correcting the demand gap amount to a sales period after the current sales season based on the demand gap amount;
if the second proportion is larger than the preset proportion; the transferring and correcting the demand gap amount to the sales period after the current sales season based on the demand gap amount comprises the following steps:
acquiring the transfer time length and the transfer times of the demand transfer of the target product in the historical year;
based on the transfer time length and the transfer times, obtaining transfer proportions of the required notch quantity corresponding to different transfer time lengths;
filling and transferring the demand gap amount to a sales period after the current selling season based on the transfer proportion; wherein the shim shift indicates an increase in sales demand corresponding to a sales period after the current sales season.
2. The method of claim 1, wherein the transferring the demand gap amount to a sales period after the current season based on the demand gap amount comprises:
judging whether the required notch amount is larger than a preset protection constant or not;
if yes, determining that the demand of the target product is transferred, and transferring and correcting the demand gap amount to the sales period after the current sale season based on the demand gap amount.
3. The method according to any one of claims 1-2, wherein if the first ratio is greater than a predetermined ratio; the transferring and correcting the demand gap amount to the sales period after the current sales season based on the demand gap amount comprises the following steps:
obtaining a demand allowance ratio corresponding to a sales period after demand transfer of the target product occurs in a historical year; the demand allowance proportion is the proportion of the demand allowance corresponding to the sales period after the demand transfer to the actual predicted amount;
based on the demand allowance proportion, reducing and transferring the demand gap amount to a sales period after the current season; wherein the reduced transfer represents a reduction in sales demand corresponding to a sales period after the current sales season.
4. A product demand optimizing apparatus, comprising:
the acquisition module is used for acquiring the accumulated sales of the current sales season of the current annual target product and the contemporaneous sales of the historical annual target product;
the notch confirmation module is configured to obtain a required notch amount of the target product based on the accumulated sales amount and the contemporaneous sales amount, and includes:
based on the contemporaneous sales of a plurality of historical years, obtaining a homonymous growth rate;
obtaining an expected sales volume for the current season of sale based on the recent contemporaneous sales volume for the historical year and the rate of increase;
acquiring a first proportion of the accumulated sales volume to the total annual sales volume and acquiring a second proportion of the contemporaneous sales volume to the total annual sales volume;
judging whether the first proportion or the second proportion is larger than a preset proportion or not;
if yes, determining that the demand of the target product is transferred, and obtaining the demand gap amount of the target product based on the difference value of the accumulated sales amount and the expected sales amount;
the transfer module is configured to perform transfer correction on the demand gap amount to a sales period after the current sales season based on the demand gap amount, and includes:
acquiring fluctuation standard deviation of contemporaneous sales in historical years; obtaining a fluctuation threshold value based on the fluctuation standard deviation and a preset fluctuation coefficient; judging that the required gap amounts are all larger than the fluctuation threshold value; if yes, determining that the demand of the target product is transferred, and transferring and correcting the demand gap amount to a sales period after the current sales season based on the demand gap amount;
if the second proportion is larger than the preset proportion; the transfer module is also used for obtaining the transfer duration and the transfer times of the demand transfer of the target product in the historical years;
based on the transfer time length and the transfer times, obtaining transfer proportions of the required notch quantity corresponding to different transfer time lengths;
filling and transferring the demand gap amount to a sales period after the current selling season based on the transfer proportion; wherein the shim shift indicates an increase in sales demand corresponding to a sales period after the current sales season.
5. A product demand optimizing device comprising a processor and a memory, the memory coupled to the processor, the memory storing instructions that, when executed by the processor, cause the product demand optimizing device to perform the steps of the method of any one of claims 1-3.
6. A computer readable storage medium, on which a computer program is stored, characterized in that the program, when being executed by a processor, implements the steps of the method according to any of claims 1-3.
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| CN104766184A (en) * | 2015-04-30 | 2015-07-08 | 刘决飞 | Big data production planning method and system |
| CN111639978A (en) * | 2020-06-08 | 2020-09-08 | 武汉理工大学 | Electronic commerce event driving type demand forecasting method based on Prophet-random forest |
| CN111815349A (en) * | 2020-05-28 | 2020-10-23 | 杭州览众数据科技有限公司 | Clothing sales volume trend prediction method based on historical similar products |
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| CN104766184A (en) * | 2015-04-30 | 2015-07-08 | 刘决飞 | Big data production planning method and system |
| CN111815349A (en) * | 2020-05-28 | 2020-10-23 | 杭州览众数据科技有限公司 | Clothing sales volume trend prediction method based on historical similar products |
| CN111639978A (en) * | 2020-06-08 | 2020-09-08 | 武汉理工大学 | Electronic commerce event driving type demand forecasting method based on Prophet-random forest |
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