CN112257233B - Elastic power grid restoring force evaluation method, device, computer equipment and medium - Google Patents
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Abstract
The application relates to an elastic power grid restoring force evaluation method, an elastic power grid restoring force evaluation device, computer equipment and medium. The method comprises the following steps: acquiring weather forecast information, and calculating disturbance indexes of the positions of unit lines in the elastic power grid based on the forecast information; calculating the time-varying fault rate of the line according to the disturbance index of the position of the unit line; calculating the occurrence probability of a fault scene according to the time-varying fault rate of the line; and calculating the resilience index of the elastic power grid according to the occurrence probability of the fault scene, the time-varying fault rate of the line and a preset load loss threshold value. The elastic power grid restoring force evaluation method can quantify the restoring force index of the elastic power grid, and is beneficial to improving the accuracy of the elastic power grid restoring force evaluation.
Description
Technical Field
The present application relates to the technical field of elastic power grids, and in particular, to a method, an apparatus, a computer device, and a medium for evaluating an elastic power grid restoring force.
Background
In recent years, a plurality of accidents which occur globally highlight the preparation shortage of the power system for extreme disaster events which are difficult to predict, bring serious damage to the power system, seriously restrict the development of social economy and influence the daily life of people. Under the background, the elastic power grid with the recovery capability after being subjected to external disturbance becomes a popular direction of global intelligent power grid research.
However, in the conventional elastic power grid restoring force evaluation method, the risk level of the elastic power grid restoring force is evaluated according to the risk value and the probability value of each influencing factor, and the restoring force of the elastic power grid in the extreme environment cannot be accurately predicted.
Therefore, the traditional elastic power grid restoring force evaluation method has the problem of inaccurate evaluation results.
Disclosure of Invention
Based on this, it is necessary to provide an elastic power grid restoring force evaluation method, an apparatus, a computer device, and a medium capable of accurately evaluating an elastic power grid restoring force in view of the above-described technical problems.
The application provides a resilient power grid restoring force assessment method, which comprises the following steps:
Acquiring weather forecast information, and calculating disturbance indexes of the positions of unit lines in the elastic power grid based on the forecast information;
Calculating the time-varying fault rate of the line according to the disturbance index of the position of the unit line;
calculating the occurrence probability of a fault scene according to the time-varying fault rate of the line;
and calculating the resilience index of the elastic power grid according to the occurrence probability of the fault scene, the time-varying fault rate of the line and a preset load loss threshold value.
In one embodiment, the weather forecast information includes typhoon forecast information, the disturbance index includes a wind speed value, the weather forecast information is obtained, and the disturbance index of the position of the unit line in the elastic power grid is calculated based on the forecast information, including:
Obtaining typhoon forecast information and establishing a typhoon wind field model based on the forecast information;
and calculating the wind speed value of the position of the unit line in the elastic power grid according to the typhoon forecast information and the typhoon wind field model.
In one embodiment, calculating a time-varying fault rate of the line according to a disturbance index of a position of the unit line includes:
determining a life probability function of the unit circuit according to a disturbance index of the position of the unit circuit;
and calculating the time-varying fault rate of the circuit according to the life probability function of the unit circuit.
In one embodiment, the calculating the occurrence probability of the fault scenario according to the time-varying fault rate of the line includes:
according to the time-varying fault rate of the line, analyzing the fault line composition at different moments in the elastic power grid to obtain a fault scene, and calculating the occurrence probability of the fault scene.
In one embodiment, calculating a resilience index of the elastic power grid according to the occurrence probability of the fault scene, the time-varying fault rate of the line and a preset load loss threshold value includes:
According to the time-varying fault rate of the line, analyzing fault line compositions at different moments in the elastic power grid, and calculating the load loss of the elastic power grid;
Determining the fault duration time of the elastic power grid according to the relation between the load loss quantity and a preset load loss quantity threshold value;
And calculating a resilience index of the elastic power grid according to the occurrence probability of the fault scene, the load loss and the fault duration of the elastic power grid.
In one embodiment, according to the occurrence probability of the fault scenario, the load loss amount and the fault duration of the elastic power grid, the formula for calculating the resilience index of the elastic power grid is as follows:
Wherein Z is a resilience index of the elastic power grid, E m (t) is a load loss amount, and f (i) is the occurrence probability of a fault scene; Δt is the fault recovery time of the elastic power grid.
In one embodiment, after calculating the resilience index of the elastic power grid according to the occurrence probability of the fault scene, the time-varying fault rate of the line and the preset load loss threshold, the method further includes:
and obtaining and outputting a restoring force evaluation result of the elastic power grid according to the restoring force index of the elastic power grid.
In a second aspect, there is provided an elastic power grid restoring force evaluation apparatus including:
the disturbance index calculation module is used for acquiring weather forecast information and calculating a disturbance index of the position of the unit line in the elastic power grid based on the forecast information;
the time-varying fault rate calculation module is used for calculating the time-varying fault rate of the line according to the disturbance index of the position of the unit line;
The fault scene analysis module is used for calculating the occurrence probability of a fault scene according to the time-varying fault rate of the line;
And the restoring force index calculation module is used for calculating the restoring force index of the elastic power grid according to the occurrence probability of the fault scene, the time-varying fault rate of the line and a preset load loss threshold value.
In a third aspect, a computer device is provided comprising a memory storing a computer program and a processor implementing the steps of the above method when the computer program is executed.
In a fourth aspect, a computer readable storage medium is provided, on which a computer program is stored which, when being executed by a processor, carries out the steps of the above-mentioned method.
According to the elastic power grid restoring force evaluation method, the forecast information of weather is obtained, and the disturbance index of the position of the unit line in the elastic power grid is calculated based on the forecast information, so that the affected condition of the position of the unit line can be quantified; according to the disturbance index of the position of the unit line, the time-varying fault rate of the line formed by the unit line can be calculated, and the most probable fault scene occurrence probability of the elastic power grid under the weather influence is calculated; finally, according to the occurrence probability of the fault scene, the anti-disturbance capacity of the elastic power grid in the external disturbance process can be determined, according to the time-varying fault rate of the line and the preset load loss threshold value, the performance loss condition and the recovery speed of the elastic power grid in the external disturbance process can be determined, and further the recovery force index of the elastic power grid can be accurately calculated, so that the accuracy of recovery force assessment of the elastic power grid can be improved.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a method for elastic grid resilience assessment in one embodiment;
FIG. 2 is a schematic flow chart of obtaining weather forecast information and calculating disturbance indexes of positions of unit lines in an elastic power grid based on the forecast information in one embodiment;
FIG. 3 is a schematic diagram of a typhoon disturbance process of an IEEE30 node elastic grid in one embodiment;
FIG. 4 is a flow chart illustrating the calculation of the time-varying failure rate of a line according to the disturbance index of the location of the unit line in one embodiment;
FIG. 5 is a graph of line outage rate versus time in typhoon weather in one embodiment;
FIG. 6 is a graph of line failure rate versus time in typhoon weather in one embodiment;
FIG. 7 is a schematic flow chart of calculating a resilience index of an elastic power grid according to occurrence probability of a fault scene, time-varying fault rate of a line and a preset load loss threshold in an embodiment;
FIG. 8 is a flow chart of a method for resilient grid resilience assessment in another embodiment;
FIG. 9 is a graph of the recalculated elastic-power-grid load versus time after elastic-power-grid restoring force lifting measures are taken in one embodiment;
FIG. 10 is a block diagram of an elastic power grid resilience assessment device in one embodiment;
FIG. 11 is a block diagram of an elastic power grid resilience assessment device according to another embodiment;
Fig. 12 is an internal structural diagram of a computer device in one embodiment.
Detailed Description
The present application will be described in further detail with reference to the drawings and examples, in order to make the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the present application more apparent. It should be understood that the specific embodiments described herein are for purposes of illustration only and are not intended to limit the scope of the application.
The elastic power grid restoring force evaluation method provided by the application can be applied to the evaluation of the elastic power grid restoring force under the condition of external disturbance, wherein the external disturbance comprises extreme weather. Referring to fig. 1, a method for evaluating resilience of an elastic power grid is provided, which includes:
Step S100: and obtaining weather forecast information, and calculating disturbance indexes of the positions of the unit lines in the elastic power grid based on the forecast information.
The weather forecast information can be obtained through television weather forecast or through weather websites, and the method for obtaining the weather forecast information is not limited. The weather forecast information comprises main parameters of weather, such as wind direction, wind speed, air pressure and the like, and the snowy weather comprises the information of the moving path of the snowfall, the air temperature, the change condition of the snowfall and the like. The unit line refers to the minimum unit of one line composition. In the process of external disturbance, the length of the unit line is far smaller than the influence range of the external disturbance, so that the position of the unit line can be approximately considered as a point, namely, the disturbance index of the position of the unit line at a certain moment is determined. The disturbance index of the position of the unit line in the elastic power grid corresponds to a specific weather type, for example, the disturbance corresponding to the windy weather is wind speed, and the disturbance index corresponding to the snowy weather is ice coverage.
Specifically, according to the forecast information of the weather, parameters related to external disturbance caused by the weather can be obtained. According to the parameters, the disturbance process of the weather can be simulated, and corresponding disturbance indexes are determined. And then according to the disturbance process of the weather and the position of the unit line in the elastic power grid, calculating the disturbance index of the position of the unit line.
Step S200: and calculating the time-varying fault rate of the line according to the disturbance index of the position of the unit line.
The time-varying failure rate refers to the failure rate of the line with time. Specifically, according to the weather forecast information, the disturbance index of the position of the unit line in the elastic power grid can be calculated, and then according to the design value of the disturbance index corresponding to the unit line in the elastic power grid, the time-varying fault rate of the unit line can be calculated. As described above, the lines in the elastic power network are constituted by unit lines. In the disturbance process of weather, the unit lines are affected to different degrees due to different positions, so that the probability of faults of the lines formed by different unit lines is different. Only when all unit lines in one line are operating normally, the line can operate normally. Then, based on the time-varying failure rate of the affected unit line in the line, the time-varying failure rate of the line can be calculated.
Step S300: and calculating the occurrence probability of the fault scene according to the time-varying fault rate of the line.
According to the time-varying fault rate of the line, the fault line composition of the elastic power grid at different moments in the external disturbance process can be determined. The fault scenario refers to a collection of lines that fail during an external disturbance. Since the affected lines are different during the disturbance of the weather. According to the time-varying fault rate of all affected lines, fault lines and fault moments in the elastic power grid are determined, the most probable fault scene of the elastic power grid in the external disturbance process can be determined, and the occurrence probability of the fault scene is calculated.
Step S400: and calculating a resilience index of the elastic power grid according to the occurrence probability of the fault scene, the time-varying fault rate of the line and a preset load loss threshold value.
The load loss refers to defective power supply in a specific fault scene. The load loss amount under a specific fault scene can be calculated according to the time-varying fault rate of the fault line. Due to the self-recovery capability of the elastic power grid, the load value of the elastic power grid is recovered to a certain degree after the external disturbance is ended. Based on the load loss threshold value, when the load loss of the elastic power grid is smaller than or equal to the load loss threshold value, judging that the elastic power grid is recovered to normal operation. Specifically, according to the occurrence probability of the fault scene and the calculation and analysis of the load loss in the power grid fault process, the resilience index of the elastic power grid can be obtained.
According to the elastic power grid restoring force evaluation method, the forecast information of weather is obtained, and the disturbance index of the position of the unit line in the elastic power grid is calculated based on the forecast information, so that the affected condition of the position of the unit line can be quantified; according to the disturbance index of the position of the unit line, the time-varying fault rate of the line formed by the unit line can be calculated, and the most probable fault scene occurrence probability of the elastic power grid under the weather influence is calculated; finally, according to the occurrence probability of the fault scene, the anti-disturbance capacity of the elastic power grid in the external disturbance process can be determined, according to the time-varying fault rate of the line and the preset load loss threshold value, the performance loss condition and the recovery speed of the elastic power grid in the external disturbance process can be determined, and further the recovery force index of the elastic power grid can be accurately calculated, so that the accuracy of recovery force assessment of the elastic power grid can be improved.
In one embodiment, the weather forecast information includes typhoon forecast information, the disturbance index includes a wind speed value, please refer to fig. 2, and step S100 includes step S120 and step S140.
Step S120: typhoon forecast information is acquired, and a typhoon wind field model is built based on the forecast information.
The weather influence model is a mathematical model for representing external disturbance due to weather change. The typhoon wind field model is a mathematical model based on fluid dynamics and thermodynamics and used for simulating basic characteristics of typhoons. The basic characteristics of typhoons include typhoon wind speed and evolution process. Common typhoon wind farm models include Batts wind farm models, shapiro wind farm models, and CE wind farm models.
The following describes a specific process for building a typhoon wind farm model using Batts wind farm models as an example.
The Batts wind field model is to superimpose the gradient wind speed and the moving wind speed in the cyclone, and determine the wind speed value of a point through the typhoon center and the position of the research point. Specifically, considering the intensity attenuation in the typhoon moving process, the calculation formula of the peripheral air pressure and the central air pressure difference deltap (t) in the typhoon moving process is as follows:
Δp(t)＝Δp0-0.675(1+sinθ)t (1)
Wherein Δp 0 is the air pressure difference when typhoon lands; θ is the angle between the direction of typhoon movement and the landing coastline.
According to the difference delta p (t) between the peripheral air pressure and the central air pressure, calculating the maximum wind speed radius R max (t) of typhoons as follows:
According to the difference between the peripheral air pressure and the central air pressure and the maximum wind speed radius, the maximum gradient wind speed v gx (t) of typhoons can be calculated as follows:
Wherein K is a constant, determined empirically; and f w is the coefficient of the earth's rotation coriolis force.
And then according to the maximum gradient wind speed and the movement speed of typhoons, the average wind speed v rmax (t) at the radius of the maximum wind speed can be calculated as follows:
vrmax(t)＝0.865vgx(t)+0.5vT (4)
Wherein v T is the moving speed of typhoons, and can be obtained from the forecast information of typhoons.
Finally, according to the distance between the unit line and the typhoon center at a certain moment, the wind speed value v r of the position of the unit line at the moment can be determined:
wherein r is the distance between the position of the unit line at a certain moment and the typhoon center; v rmax is the average wind speed at the maximum wind speed radius of typhoon at this time; r max is the maximum wind speed radius of typhoon at this time.
The wind field model Batts is built.
Step S140: and calculating the wind speed value of the position of the unit line in the elastic power grid according to typhoon forecast information and typhoon wind field models.
Substituting the obtained typhoon forecast information into the typhoon wind field model established in the step S120, the wind speed value of the position of the unit line considering the space-time characteristics of typhoons can be obtained. Specifically, according to the login location and the movement path of typhoons in typhoons forecast information, the included angle between the movement direction of typhoons and the login coastline can be determined. From the movement path and movement speed v T of the typhoons, the time t at which the typhoons arrive at the unit route can be determined. Substituting the time t, the air pressure difference when typhoons are logged in typhoons forecast information and the included angle between the movement direction of typhoons and the logged-in coastline into the formula (1), and calculating the peripheral air pressure and central air pressure difference delta p (t) in the typhoons moving process. Then substituting the peripheral air pressure and the central air pressure difference delta p (t) into the formula (2), the maximum wind speed radius R max (t) of typhoons can be calculated. The maximum gradient wind speed v gx (t) of typhoons can be calculated by substituting the peripheral air pressure and central air pressure difference deltap (t) and the maximum wind speed radius R max (t) into formula (3). And substituting the typhoon moving speed v T and the maximum gradient wind speed v gx (t) into the formula (4), and calculating the average wind speed v rmax (t) at the maximum wind speed radius. According to the position of the unit line and the position of the typhoon center at the moment, the distance r between the position of the unit line at the moment and the typhoon center can be calculated. And finally, substituting the relation between R and R max (t) into a corresponding formula of the formula (5) to calculate the wind speed value v r of the position of the unit line at the moment.
For easy understanding, taking an IEEE30 node elastic power grid as an example, a typhoon disturbance process is set up, as shown in fig. 3, a coordinate system is set up by taking an outlet end of a node 26 as an origin, a typhoon landing position coordinate is (-25 km ), a landing angle is 15 °, and an initial air pressure difference between the periphery and the center of the typhoon is 30hpa. Substituting the parameters into Batts wind field models to obtain the wind speed change condition of the position of each unit line in the typhoon influence range. As can be seen from fig. 3, the typhoon moves along a preset path indicated by an arrow in the drawing, and during the movement of the typhoon, the maximum wind speed of the typhoon is continuously reduced, and the radius of the maximum wind speed, namely the radius of a circle in fig. 3, is continuously increased.
In the embodiment, the typhoon wind field model is built based on the forecast information of typhoons, so that the wind speed value of the position of the unit line in the elastic power grid can be accurately estimated, the accuracy of line working state analysis in the typhoon disturbance process is improved, and the probability of occurrence of a fault scene and the accuracy of elastic power grid restoring force index assessment are improved.
In one embodiment, referring to fig. 4, step S200 includes steps S220 to S240.
Step S220: and determining a life probability function of the unit circuit according to the disturbance index of the position of the unit circuit.
In particular, the life probability function of the element is substantially identical to the transition probability of the element from the operating state to the fault state. Meanwhile, the life probability function of the element is the same as the shutdown rate of the element in value. Taking typhoon weather as an example, the outage rate lambda 0 (t) of the unit line, namely a relation model between a life probability function of the unit line and the wind speed on the unit line is as follows:
Wherein v (t) is the wind speed at the unit line; v d is the design wind speed of the unit line; a. b is an element model parameter which can be obtained through analysis and statistics of historical outage data of the line; lambda 0 (t) is given in units of (50 km x1 h) -1. The analysis statistical method of the historical outage data comprises regression fitting.
Step S240: and calculating the time-varying fault rate of the circuit according to the life probability function of the unit circuit.
According to the life probability function of the unit circuit, the outage rate of the circuit with the length L can be obtained as follows:
λp(t)＝λ0(t)L
wherein the outage rate λ p (t) of the line represents the outage number of the line within 1 h.
Assuming that the line cannot be reclosed automatically in the external disturbance process, the line can be repaired only after the external disturbance is transferred to the outside of the elastic power grid area. On the premise that the life probability function of the unrepairable element is known, the following fault probability distribution expression P (t) describing the line in a period of time by using a Markov process can be established as follows:
Taking typhoon weather as an example, as shown in fig. 5, the relationship between the line outage rate and time in typhoon weather is shown in fig. 6, and the relationship between the line failure rate and time in typhoon weather is shown in fig. 6, wherein the lines 25-26 and 27-28 are the lines 25-26 and 27-28 in fig. 3. With reference to fig. 3 and 5, it can be seen that in the process of typhoon movement, the relative distance between the position of the line and the center point of typhoon continuously changes, and the greater the shutdown rate of the line is when the line is closer to the maximum wind speed radius of typhoon, so that the relationship curve of the shutdown rate and time is in two peaks, and the shutdown rate at other moments is very small and is close to 0. Since typhoon intensity is decaying, the spike at the latter moment is lower than at the previous moment. As can be seen from the line fault rate expression, the fault rate of the line is increased continuously with the passage of time, and at the moment of high outage rate, the line fault rate increases at an increased speed, i.e. the slope of the fault curve increases. As shown in fig. 6, the slope of the failure rate increase curve increases corresponding to the time when the two outage rates are high in fig. 5.
In the embodiment, the life probability function of the unit circuit is calculated according to the wind speed value of the position of the unit circuit in the elastic power grid, and the time-varying fault rate of the circuit is calculated according to the life probability function of the unit circuit, so that the accuracy of analyzing the working state of the circuit in the typhoon disturbance process is improved, and the occurrence probability of a fault scene and the accuracy of evaluating the elastic power grid restoring force index are improved.
In one embodiment, step S300 includes step S320.
Step S320: according to the time-varying fault rate of the line, analyzing the fault line composition at different moments in the elastic power grid to obtain a fault scene, and calculating the occurrence probability of the fault scene.
The elastic power grid state space can be divided into a normal running state set and a no-load state set, and influences on the line are mainly considered in the external disturbance process. The elastic power grid is provided with n lines, the serial numbers of the lines are n 1,n2,…nn in sequence, a two-state model is adopted, n i indicates that the lines are in a normal running state,Indicating that the line is in a fault condition. The set of k-order fault states S k for the elastic grid system can be expressed as follows:
In the formula, j-i=k, k lines in the set are simultaneously in a fault state, and other n-k lines are simultaneously in a normal running state, so that w system fault states are formed. The occurrence probability P (S k) can be expressed as:
Wherein p i is the failure probability of line i, when line i is in failure state, n i =0; when in the running state, n i =1.
The fault scenario refers to a scenario in which more than two lines fail, resulting in a fault in the elastic power grid. The external disturbance greatly increases the fault rate of the elastic power grid line, and the occurrence probability of the fault scene is also increased. And analyzing the fault scene most likely caused by the external disturbance by combining with the predicted path of the external disturbance, and carrying out elastic power grid restoring force evaluation calculation on the fault scene. After determining the fault line, the occurrence probabilities P of different fault states at different moments are accumulated (S k), so that the occurrence probability f (i) of the fault scene, i.e., f (i) =p (S k), which is most likely to be caused by the elastic power grid in the external disturbance process can be obtained.
In the above embodiment, according to the time-varying failure rate of the line, the failure line composition at different moments in the elastic power grid is analyzed to obtain a failure scenario, and the occurrence probability of the failure scenario is calculated. Therefore, the fault scene of the elastic power grid in the external disturbance process can be accurately described, the accuracy of the elastic power grid fault analysis process is improved, and the accuracy of elastic power grid restoring force index assessment is improved.
In one embodiment, please refer to fig. 7, step S400 includes steps S420 to S460.
Step S420: according to the time-varying fault rate of the line, analyzing the fault line composition at different moments in the elastic power grid, and calculating the load loss of the elastic power grid.
The load loss of the elastic power grid refers to the load loss of the elastic power grid in the fault time. Specifically, the state quantity of each node recovered after disaster of the elastic power grid needs to meet certain constraint conditions, and the constraint conditions include:
Wherein P GK、qGK is the active output and the reactive output of the generator k in the fault state of the elastic power grid; Δp ij is the current-carrying capacity of line ij; p Ln is the load amount of the load node n; p ij,max is the maximum current-carrying capacity of the line ij; Δp Ln is the load reduction amount of the load node n; p Ln,max is the upper limit of the load amount of the load node n; p GK,min、PGK,max is the lower limit and the upper limit of the active output of the generator k respectively; q GK,min、qGK,max is the lower limit and the upper limit of reactive output of the generator k respectively; u i is the voltage at node i.
According to the determined fault scene, the load loss E m (t) of the elastic power grid in the fault time can be obtained as follows:
Wherein P e (t) represents the target load amount when the elastic power grid operates without faults; p f (t) represents the amount of load supplied when a fault occurs.
Step S440: and determining the fault duration time of the elastic power grid according to the relation between the load loss quantity and a preset load loss quantity threshold value.
Specifically, a threshold value of the load loss amount may be preset, and when the load loss amount is higher than the preset threshold value, the elastic power grid is considered to have a fault. Correspondingly, the fault duration refers to the duration that the load loss of the elastic power grid is higher than a preset threshold.
Step S460: and calculating the resilience index of the elastic power grid according to the occurrence probability of the fault scene, the load loss and the fault duration of the elastic power grid.
In particular, the resilience index of the elastic power grid should analyze the influence of various disturbances on the resilience from multiple angles. The load loss of the elastic power grid and the recovery time of the elastic power grid under faults can be used for respectively quantifying the robustness index and the rapidity index of the elastic power grid. The occurrence probability of different fault scenes is also an index for measuring the restoring force of the elastic power grid, and the restoring force index of the elastic power grid can be improved by reducing the occurrence probability of disturbance which can cause the reduction of the transportation capacity of the elastic power grid. Therefore, the recovery force index of the elastic power grid can be calculated by considering three aspects of the load loss quantity, the recovery time and the fault scene occurrence probability of the elastic power grid.
In one embodiment, the calculation formula of the resilience index of the elastic power grid is:
Wherein Z is a restoring force index of the elastic power grid; e m (t) is the load loss of the elastic power grid in the fault time; f (i) is the occurrence probability of a specific fault scene; Δt is the elastic grid fault recovery time.
In the embodiment, the recovery power index of the elastic power grid is obtained by considering the load loss amount, the recovery time and the fault scene occurrence probability of the elastic power grid, and is used for recovery power evaluation, so that the defect power supply amount of the elastic power grid in the external disturbance process can be reflected, the recovery speed of the elastic power grid under the fault can be reflected, the disturbance rejection capability of the elastic power grid can be reflected, and the accuracy of the recovery power evaluation of the elastic power grid can be improved.
Further, in one embodiment, referring to fig. 8, step S500 is further included after step S400.
Step S500: and obtaining and outputting a restoring force evaluation result of the elastic power grid according to the restoring force index of the elastic power grid.
Specifically, a reference value of the elastic power grid resilience index may be set, and the reference value may be one or a plurality of reference values. When the reference value is one, when the calculated elastic power grid restoring force index is greater than or equal to the reference value, a result of good restoring force of the elastic power grid is obtained and output; otherwise, obtaining the result of poor restoring force of the elastic power grid and outputting the result. When the reference values are multiple, the multiple reference values can be combined in pairs to form multiple reference intervals, and different levels are used for representing recovery force evaluation results of the elastic power grid in the multiple reference intervals. For example, the results of the evaluations of good, bad, and poor may be represented by S, A and B, respectively. The recovery power index calculation result and the reference value of the elastic power grid can be output together, and the recovery power evaluation result of the elastic power grid can also be directly output.
And outputting the recovery power evaluation result of the elastic power grid, wherein the recovery power evaluation result can be directly output to a terminal for display or uploaded to a server, and then downloaded by the terminal for obtaining the recovery power evaluation result. In short, the output mode and the output object of the restoring force evaluation result of the elastic power grid are not limited in this embodiment.
Further, according to the restoring force evaluation result of the elastic power grid, a worker can select a measure for improving the restoring force of the elastic power grid, calculate a restoring force index of the elastic power grid after taking the measure, and evaluate the effectiveness of the measure.
Specifically, according to the elastic power grid restoring force index, the restoring force of the elastic power grid is improved by the following three ways: the occurrence rate of the faults of the elastic power grid is reduced, the load defect quantity of the elastic power grid is reduced, and the recovery time of the elastic power grid is shortened. And if the element fails, the element cannot be repaired immediately, and the artificial repair is only performed after the external disturbance is finished, namely the problem of the recovery time of the elastic power grid cannot be well improved. Then, the elastic power grid restoring force can be improved by two ways, namely, the feeder line and the overhead line are increased before the disaster, the distributed power supply is introduced after the disaster to improve the elastic power grid restoring force index. In addition, the overhead line is reinforced, so that the fault occurrence rate is reduced, and the restoring force index of the elastic power grid can be improved.
Taking typhoon weather as an example, as shown in fig. 3, determining that a fault scene in typhoon weather is a quadruple fault scene, under the fault scene, the lines 25-26, 27-28, 6-28 and 6-8 respectively break down after typhoon logging, and calculating the load loss amount of the elastic power grid in the fault time, the recovery time and the occurrence probability of the fault scene. The recovery power evaluation index is calculated by combining the elastic power grid load loss E m (t), the recovery time delta t and the fault scene occurrence probability f (i), and is as follows:
According to the obtained elastic power grid recovery strength index, the recovery force of the elastic power grid can be improved from the following three ways: and (3) cabling of a feeder line and an overhead line is added before the disaster, and a distributed power supply is introduced after the disaster. After the above measures are taken, the load curve of the elastic power grid is recalculated, as shown in fig. 9, it can be seen that after the related measures are taken, the load loss of the elastic power grid after external disturbance is obviously reduced, that is, the restoring force of the elastic power grid is obviously improved, and the taken measures are effective.
Furthermore, a restoring force lifting threshold value can be set, and when the restoring force index of the elastic power grid is lifted to exceed a preset threshold value after a measure is taken, the measure is judged to be an effective measure.
Furthermore, in one embodiment, after step S400, the method may further include: and generating measures for improving the restoring force of the elastic power grid according to the restoring force index of the elastic power grid.
Specifically, a relationship between related parameters such as load loss and failure probability in the elastic power grid and measures for improving the restoring force of the elastic power grid can be established according to the historical data. Measures for improving the restoring force of the elastic power grid comprise adding feeder lines before disaster, cabling overhead lines, reinforcing the overhead lines, introducing distributed power sources after disaster, and the like. After the recovery force index of the elastic power grid is calculated, a measure for improving the recovery force of the elastic power grid can be generated according to the actual condition of the elastic power grid.
In the above embodiment, the restoring force index of the elastic power grid is calculated through a formula, and the restoring force evaluation result of the elastic power grid is obtained and output according to the preset restoring force index standard value, so that a foundation can be provided for further researching and improving the restoring force of the elastic power grid, and further construction of the elastic power grid is guided to form a virtuous circle.
It should be understood that, although the steps in the flowcharts of fig. 1-2, 4, and 7-8 are shown in order as indicated by the arrows, these steps are not necessarily performed in order as indicated by the arrows. The steps are not strictly limited to the order of execution unless explicitly recited herein, and the steps may be executed in other orders. Moreover, at least some of the steps of FIGS. 1-2, 4, and 7-8 may include multiple sub-steps or phases that are not necessarily performed at the same time, but may be performed at different times, nor does the order in which the sub-steps or phases are performed necessarily occur in sequence, but may be performed alternately or alternately with other steps or at least a portion of the sub-steps or phases of other steps.
In one embodiment, please refer to fig. 10, an elastic power grid restoring force evaluation apparatus is provided, which includes a disturbance index calculation module 100, a time-varying failure rate calculation module 200, a failure scenario analysis module 300, and a restoring force index calculation module 400. The disturbance index calculation module 100 is configured to obtain weather forecast information, and calculate a disturbance index of a position of a unit line in the elastic power grid based on the forecast information; the time-varying fault rate calculation module 200 is configured to calculate a time-varying fault rate of the line according to a disturbance index of a position where the unit line is located; the fault scene analysis module 300 is used for calculating the occurrence probability of a fault scene according to the time-varying fault rate of the line; the restoring force index calculation module 400 is configured to calculate a restoring force index of the elastic power grid according to the occurrence probability of the fault scenario, the time-varying fault rate of the line, and a preset load loss threshold.
In one embodiment, the weather forecast information includes typhoon forecast information, the disturbance indicator includes a wind speed value, and the disturbance indicator calculation module 100 includes a wind field model building unit and a wind speed value calculation unit. The wind field model building unit is used for obtaining typhoon forecast information and building a typhoon field model based on the forecast information; the wind speed value calculating unit is used for calculating the wind speed value of the position of the unit line in the elastic power grid according to typhoon forecast information and typhoon wind field models.
In one embodiment, the time-varying failure rate calculation module 200 is specifically configured to: determining a life probability function of the unit circuit according to a disturbance index of the position of the unit circuit; and calculating the time-varying fault rate of the circuit according to the life probability function of the unit circuit.
In one embodiment, the fault scenario analysis module 300 is specifically configured to: according to the time-varying fault rate of the line, analyzing the fault line composition at different moments in the elastic power grid to obtain a fault scene, and calculating the occurrence probability of the fault scene.
In one embodiment, the restoring force index calculation module 400 is specifically configured to: according to the time-varying fault rate of the line, analyzing fault line compositions at different moments in the elastic power grid, and calculating the load loss of the elastic power grid; determining the fault duration time of the elastic power grid according to the relation between the load loss quantity and a preset load loss quantity threshold value; and calculating the resilience index of the elastic power grid according to the occurrence probability of the fault scene, the load loss and the fault duration of the elastic power grid.
In one embodiment, please refer to fig. 11, another elastic power grid restoring force evaluation apparatus is provided, which further includes a restoring force evaluation result output module 500 for: and obtaining and outputting a restoring force evaluation result of the elastic power grid according to the restoring force index of the elastic power grid.
For specific limitations on the elastic power grid restoring force evaluation device, reference may be made to the above limitation on the elastic power grid restoring force evaluation method, and the detailed description thereof will be omitted. The above-described respective modules in the elastic power grid restoring force evaluation apparatus may be implemented in whole or in part by software, hardware, and a combination thereof. The above modules may be embedded in hardware or may be independent of a processor in the computer device, or may be stored in software in a memory in the computer device, so that the processor may call and execute operations corresponding to the above modules.
In one embodiment, a computer device is provided, which may be a terminal, and the internal structure thereof may be as shown in fig. 12. The computer device includes a processor, a memory, a network interface, a display screen, and an input device connected by a system bus. Wherein the processor of the computer device is configured to provide computing and control capabilities. The memory of the computer device includes a non-volatile storage medium and an internal memory. The non-volatile storage medium stores an operating system and a computer program. The internal memory provides an environment for the operation of the operating system and computer programs in the non-volatile storage media. The network interface of the computer device is used for communicating with an external terminal through a network connection. The computer program is executed by a processor to implement a resilient grid resilience assessment method. The display screen of the computer equipment can be a liquid crystal display screen or an electronic ink display screen, and the input device of the computer equipment can be a touch layer covered on the display screen, can also be keys, a track ball or a touch pad arranged on the shell of the computer equipment, and can also be an external keyboard, a touch pad or a mouse and the like.
It will be appreciated by those skilled in the art that the structure shown in FIG. 12 is merely a block diagram of some of the structures associated with the present inventive arrangements and is not limiting of the computer device to which the present inventive arrangements may be applied, and that a particular computer device may include more or fewer components than shown, or may combine some of the components, or have a different arrangement of components.
Those skilled in the art will appreciate that implementing all or part of the above described methods may be accomplished by way of a computer program stored on a non-transitory computer readable storage medium, which when executed may comprise the steps of the embodiments of the methods described above. Any reference to memory, storage, database, or other medium used in embodiments provided herein may include non-volatile and/or volatile memory. The nonvolatile memory can include Read Only Memory (ROM), programmable ROM (PROM), electrically Programmable ROM (EPROM), electrically Erasable Programmable ROM (EEPROM), or flash memory. Volatile memory can include Random Access Memory (RAM) or external cache memory. By way of illustration and not limitation, RAM is available in a variety of forms such as Static RAM (SRAM), dynamic RAM (DRAM), synchronous DRAM (SDRAM), double Data Rate SDRAM (DDRSDRAM), enhanced SDRAM (ESDRAM), synchronous link (SYNCHLINK) DRAM (SLDRAM), memory bus (Rambus) direct RAM (RDRAM), direct memory bus dynamic RAM (DRDRAM), and memory bus dynamic RAM (RDRAM), among others.
The technical features of the above embodiments may be arbitrarily combined, and all possible combinations of the technical features in the above embodiments are not described for brevity of description, however, as long as there is no contradiction between the combinations of the technical features, they should be considered as the scope of the description.
The foregoing examples illustrate only a few embodiments of the application, which are described in detail and are not to be construed as limiting the scope of the application. It should be noted that it will be apparent to those skilled in the art that several variations and modifications can be made without departing from the spirit of the application, which are all within the scope of the application. Accordingly, the scope of protection of the present application is to be determined by the appended claims.
Claims (10)
1. A method of resilient grid resilience assessment, the method comprising:
Acquiring weather forecast information, and calculating disturbance indexes of positions of unit lines in an elastic power grid based on the weather forecast information; the unit circuit is the minimum unit formed by one circuit;
Determining a life probability function of the unit circuit according to a disturbance index of the position of the unit circuit;
calculating the time-varying fault rate of the circuit according to the life probability function of the unit circuit;
Calculating the occurrence probability of a fault scene according to the time-varying fault rate of the line;
According to the time-varying fault rate of the line, analyzing fault line compositions at different moments in an elastic power grid, and calculating the load loss of the elastic power grid;
Determining the fault duration time of the elastic power grid according to the relation between the load loss quantity and a preset load loss quantity threshold value;
Calculating a resilience index of the elastic power grid according to the occurrence probability of the fault scene, the load loss and the fault duration of the elastic power grid;
The formula for calculating the resilience index of the elastic power grid is as follows:
Wherein Z is a resilience index of the elastic power grid, E m (t) is a load loss amount, and f (i) is the occurrence probability of a fault scene; Δt is the fault recovery time of the elastic power grid;
the weather forecast information comprises typhoon forecast information, the disturbance index comprises wind speed, and the life probability function of the unit circuit comprises:
wherein v (t) is the wind speed value of the position of the unit line; v d is the design wind speed of the unit line; a. b is an element model parameter, and is obtained through analysis and statistics of historical outage data of the line; lambda 0 (t) is the off-line rate of the unit line, lambda 0 (t) is in units of (50 km 1 h) -1.
2. The method according to claim 1, wherein obtaining typhoon forecast information and calculating a disturbance index of a location of a unit line in the elastic power grid based on the typhoon forecast information comprises:
Obtaining typhoon forecast information and establishing a typhoon wind field model based on the typhoon forecast information;
And calculating the wind speed value of the position of the unit line in the elastic power grid according to the typhoon forecast information and the typhoon wind field model.
3. The method of claim 1, wherein calculating the probability of occurrence of a fault scenario based on the time-varying failure rate of the line comprises:
And analyzing the fault line composition at different moments in the elastic power grid according to the time-varying fault rate of the line to obtain a fault scene, and calculating the occurrence probability of the fault scene.
4. A method according to any one of claims 1 to 3, wherein after said calculating a resilience index of the elastic power network, the method further comprises:
And obtaining and outputting a restoring force evaluation result of the elastic power grid according to the restoring force index of the elastic power grid.
5. An elastic power grid restoring force evaluation device, characterized by comprising:
The disturbance index calculation module is used for acquiring weather forecast information and calculating a disturbance index of the position of the unit line in the elastic power grid based on the weather forecast information; the unit circuit is the minimum unit formed by one circuit;
The time-varying fault rate calculation module is used for determining a life probability function of the unit circuit according to a disturbance index of the position of the unit circuit; calculating the time-varying fault rate of the circuit according to the life probability function of the unit circuit;
the fault scene analysis module is used for calculating the occurrence probability of a fault scene according to the time-varying fault rate of the line;
the restoring force index calculation module is used for analyzing fault line compositions at different moments in the elastic power grid according to the time-varying fault rate of the line and calculating the load loss of the elastic power grid; determining the fault duration time of the elastic power grid according to the relation between the load loss quantity and a preset load loss quantity threshold value; calculating a resilience index of the elastic power grid according to the occurrence probability of the fault scene, the load loss and the fault duration of the elastic power grid;
The formula for calculating the resilience index of the elastic power grid is as follows:
Wherein Z is a resilience index of the elastic power grid, E m (t) is a load loss amount, and f (i) is the occurrence probability of a fault scene; Δt is the fault recovery time of the elastic power grid;
the weather forecast information comprises typhoon forecast information, the disturbance index comprises wind speed, and the life probability function of the unit circuit comprises:
wherein v (t) is the wind speed value of the position of the unit line; v d is the design wind speed of the unit line; a. b is an element model parameter, and is obtained through analysis and statistics of historical outage data of the line; lambda 0 (t) is the off-line rate of the unit line, lambda 0 (t) is in units of (50 km 1 h) -1.
6. The apparatus of claim 5, wherein the disturbance indicator calculation module is specifically configured to:
Obtaining typhoon forecast information and establishing a typhoon wind field model based on the typhoon forecast information;
And calculating the wind speed value of the position of the unit line in the elastic power grid according to the typhoon forecast information and the typhoon wind field model.
7. The apparatus of claim 5, wherein the time-varying failure rate calculation module is specifically configured to: and analyzing the fault line composition at different moments in the elastic power grid according to the time-varying fault rate of the line to obtain a fault scene, and calculating the occurrence probability of the fault scene.
8. The device according to any one of claims 5 to 7, further comprising a recovery power evaluation result output module, configured to obtain and output a recovery power evaluation result of the elastic power grid according to a recovery power index of the elastic power grid.
9. A computer device comprising a memory and a processor, the memory storing a computer program, characterized in that the processor implements the steps of the method of any of claims 1 to 4 when the computer program is executed.
10. A computer readable storage medium, on which a computer program is stored, characterized in that the computer program, when being executed by a processor, implements the steps of the method of any of claims 1 to 4.
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