CN118259316B - Sea area ship track prediction method and system based on Beidou system - Google Patents
Sea area ship track prediction method and system based on Beidou system Download PDFInfo
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- G—PHYSICS
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- G01S—RADIO DIRECTION-FINDING; RADIO NAVIGATION; DETERMINING DISTANCE OR VELOCITY BY USE OF RADIO WAVES; LOCATING OR PRESENCE-DETECTING BY USE OF THE REFLECTION OR RERADIATION OF RADIO WAVES; ANALOGOUS ARRANGEMENTS USING OTHER WAVES
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- G01S19/39—Determining a navigation solution using signals transmitted by a satellite radio beacon positioning system the satellite radio beacon positioning system transmitting time-stamped messages, e.g. GPS [Global Positioning System], GLONASS [Global Orbiting Navigation Satellite System] or GALILEO
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Abstract
The application relates to the field of big data processing, in particular to a sea area ship track prediction method and system based on a Beidou system, comprising the following steps: preliminarily predicting Beidou position parameters sailing at the next moment according to Beidou position parameters sailing at the current moment; calculating to obtain internal correction parameters according to the characteristic parameters of the ship to be predicted and Beidou position parameters of the ship navigation to be predicted in the prediction period; calculating to obtain external correction parameters according to the running parameters of other ships at the current moment, the environment parameters of the ship to be predicted at the current moment and the environment parameters of the ship to be predicted at the current moment; and correcting the preliminarily predicted Beidou position parameter sailing at the next moment through the internal correction parameters and the external correction parameters, and finally predicting to obtain the Beidou position parameter sailing at the next moment. According to the application, the ship in the sea area is monitored to predict the ship track in the sea area, so that the probability of occurrence of water traffic accidents is reduced, and the safety of the ship is ensured.
Description
Technical Field
The application relates to the field of big data processing, in particular to a sea area ship track prediction method and system based on a Beidou system.
Background
In recent years, along with increasing globalization degree of economy, economic trade of each country is more and more frequent, thereby driving the flow of the marine ships to be increasingly increased and the important waterway traffic to be increasingly busy, further bringing greater potential safety hazard to the water traffic, and increasing the probability of collision of the ships in the water transportation process, and seriously affecting the safety of the ship transportation.
Therefore, how to monitor the ship in the sea area so as to predict the ship track in the sea area, thereby reducing the probability of occurrence of water traffic accidents, guaranteeing the safety of the ship and being a technical problem which is urgently needed to be solved by the people in the field.
Disclosure of Invention
The application provides a sea area ship track prediction method and a sea area ship track prediction system based on a Beidou system.
In order to solve the technical problems, the application provides the following technical scheme:
A sea area ship track prediction method based on a Beidou system comprises the following steps: step S110, acquiring Beidou position parameters of the ship to be predicted, which sails at the current moment, and preliminarily predicting Beidou position parameters of the ship to be predicted, which sails at the next moment, according to the Beidou position parameters of the ship to be predicted, wherein the Beidou position parameters of the ship to be predicted sails at the current moment; step S120, collecting characteristic parameters of the ship to be predicted and Beidou position parameters of the ship navigation to be predicted in a prediction period taking the current moment as the end moment; step S130, calculating to obtain internal correction parameters according to characteristic parameters of the ship to be predicted and Beidou position parameters of the ship navigation to be predicted in a prediction period; step S140, collecting operation parameters of other vessels centering on the vessel to be predicted and within a preset radius range at the current moment and the operation parameters of the vessel to be predicted; step S150, collecting environmental parameters of the ship to be predicted at the current moment; step S160, calculating to obtain external correction parameters according to the running parameters of other ships at the current moment, the environmental parameters of the ship to be predicted at the current moment and the environmental parameters of the ship to be predicted at the current moment; and step S170, correcting the preliminarily predicted Beidou position parameter sailing at the next moment through the internal correction parameters and the external correction parameters, and finally predicting to obtain the Beidou position parameter sailing at the next moment.
According to the sea area ship track prediction method based on the Beidou system, preferably, beidou position parameters of ship navigation to be predicted in a prediction period taking the current moment as the end moment are collected, and the Beidou position parameters of the ship navigation to be predicted in the prediction period are collected together to form a Beidou position parameter set; the Beidou position parameter set is provided with a plurality of Beidou position parameter subsets; characteristic parameters of the vessel to be predicted are collected and the characteristic parameters of the vessel to be predicted are assembled together to form a characteristic parameter set.
According to the sea area ship track prediction method based on the Beidou system, the weight of each Beidou position parameter subset is preferably determined from preset subset weights according to the interval length between the acquisition time of the Beidou position parameter subset and the current time; determining the weight of each Beidou position parameter from preset type weights according to the type of each Beidou position parameter in the Beidou position parameter subset; determining the weight of each characteristic parameter of the ship to be predicted from preset class weights according to the class of the characteristic parameter; and calculating to obtain the internal correction parameters according to the Beidou position parameter set, the weights of the Beidou position parameter subset, the weights of the Beidou position parameters, the characteristic parameter set and the weights of the characteristic parameters.
According to the sea area ship track prediction method based on the Beidou system, the current operation parameters of all other ships taking the ship to be predicted as the center and within the preset radius range are preferably collected, and the current operation parameters of the ships are integrated together to form an operation parameter set; the operating parameter set has a plurality of operating parameter subsets; collecting current operating parameters of the ship to be predicted, and collecting the current operating parameters of the ship to be predicted together to form an operating parameter subset of the ship to be predicted; and acquiring the environmental parameters of the ship to be predicted at the current moment, and gathering the environmental parameters of the ship to be predicted at the current moment together to form an environmental parameter set.
According to the sea area ship track prediction method based on the Beidou system, preferably, the relative speed and the relative distance between each ship in other ships at the current moment and the ship to be predicted are calculated according to each operation parameter subset in the operation parameter set of the other ships at the current moment and the operation parameter subset of the ship to be predicted at the current moment; and calculating to obtain external correction parameters according to the relative speed and the relative distance between each ship in other ships at the current moment and the ship to be predicted and the environmental parameters at the current moment of the ship to be predicted.
Sea area ship track prediction system based on beidou system includes: the system comprises a parameter acquisition unit, a parameter prediction unit, a parameter collection unit, a calculation unit and a correction unit; a parameter acquisition unit; acquiring Beidou position parameters of the ship to be predicted sailing at the current moment, and primarily predicting the Beidou position parameters sailing at the next moment by a parameter prediction unit according to the Beidou position parameters sailing at the current moment; the parameter collecting unit collects characteristic parameters of the ship to be predicted and Beidou position parameters of the ship to be predicted sailing in a prediction period taking the current moment as the end moment; the calculation unit calculates internal correction parameters according to the characteristic parameters of the ship to be predicted and Beidou position parameters of the ship navigation to be predicted in the prediction period; the parameter collecting unit is used for collecting running parameters of other ships taking the ship to be predicted as the center and within a preset radius range at the current moment and running parameters of the ship to be predicted; the parameter collecting unit collects environmental parameters at the current moment of the ship to be predicted; the calculating unit calculates external correction parameters according to the running parameters of other ships at the current moment, the environment parameters of the ship to be predicted at the current moment and the environment parameters of the ship to be predicted at the current moment; the correction unit corrects the preliminarily predicted Beidou position parameter sailing at the next moment through the internal correction parameters and the external correction parameters, and finally predicts the Beidou position parameter sailing at the next moment.
The sea area ship track prediction system based on the Beidou system, as described above, preferably collects Beidou position parameters of ship navigation to be predicted in a prediction period taking the current moment as the end moment, and gathers the Beidou position parameters of ship navigation to be predicted in the prediction period together to form a Beidou position parameter set; the Beidou position parameter set is provided with a plurality of Beidou position parameter subsets; characteristic parameters of the vessel to be predicted are collected and the characteristic parameters of the vessel to be predicted are assembled together to form a characteristic parameter set.
According to the sea area ship track prediction system based on the Beidou system, the weight of each Beidou position parameter subset is preferably determined from preset subset weights according to the interval length between the acquisition time of the Beidou position parameter subset and the current time; determining the weight of each Beidou position parameter from preset type weights according to the type of each Beidou position parameter in the Beidou position parameter subset; determining the weight of each characteristic parameter of the ship to be predicted from preset class weights according to the class of the characteristic parameter; and calculating to obtain the internal correction parameters according to the Beidou position parameter set, the weights of the Beidou position parameter subset, the weights of the Beidou position parameters, the characteristic parameter set and the weights of the characteristic parameters.
The sea area ship track prediction system based on the Beidou system, as described above, preferably collects current operation parameters of all other ships centering on the ship to be predicted and within a predetermined radius range, and integrates the current operation parameters of the ships to form an operation parameter set; the operating parameter set has a plurality of operating parameter subsets; collecting current operating parameters of the ship to be predicted, and collecting the current operating parameters of the ship to be predicted together to form an operating parameter subset of the ship to be predicted; and acquiring the environmental parameters of the ship to be predicted at the current moment, and gathering the environmental parameters of the ship to be predicted at the current moment together to form an environmental parameter set.
According to the sea area ship track prediction system based on the Beidou system, preferably, the relative speed and the relative distance between each ship in other ships at the current moment and the ship to be predicted are calculated according to each operation parameter subset in the operation parameter set of the other ships at the current moment and the operation parameter subset of the ship to be predicted at the current moment; and calculating to obtain external correction parameters according to the relative speed and the relative distance between each ship in other ships at the current moment and the ship to be predicted and the environmental parameters at the current moment of the ship to be predicted.
Compared with the background art, the ship track prediction method and the ship track prediction device can accurately predict the ship track and evaluate the risk according to the prediction result according to the situations of the ship to be predicted, other ships around the ship to be predicted and the environment situation of the ship to be predicted, so that the ship navigation risk is reduced, and the sea safety is improved.
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In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings used in the embodiments or the description of the prior art will be briefly described below, and it is obvious that the drawings in the following description are only some embodiments described in the present invention, and other drawings may be obtained according to these drawings for a person having ordinary skill in the art.
Fig. 1 is a flow chart of a sea area ship track prediction method based on a Beidou system.
Fig. 2 is a schematic diagram of the sea area ship track prediction system based on the Beidou system.
Detailed Description
Embodiments of the present invention are described in detail below, examples of which are illustrated in the accompanying drawings, wherein like or similar reference numerals refer to like or similar elements or elements having like or similar functions throughout. In addition, spatial relationship terms such as "upper", "lower", "front", "rear", "left" and "right" are used for convenience of description to explain a positional relationship between two components. The embodiments described below by referring to the drawings are illustrative only and are not to be construed as limiting the invention.
Example 1
As shown in fig. 1, the application provides a sea area ship track prediction method based on a Beidou system, which comprises the following steps:
Step S110, acquiring Beidou position parameters of the ship to be predicted, which sails at the current moment, and preliminarily predicting Beidou position parameters of the ship to be predicted, which sails at the next moment, according to the Beidou position parameters of the ship to be predicted, wherein the Beidou position parameters of the ship to be predicted sails at the current moment;
be provided with big dipper positioning system on waiting to predict the boats and ships, big dipper positioning system can obtain the big dipper position parameter such as position parameter, speed parameter, acceleration parameter that wait to predict the current moment navigation of boats and ships in real time, and according to the big dipper position parameter such as position parameter, angular velocity parameter, acceleration parameter that wait to predict the current moment navigation of boats and ships, big dipper position parameter such as position parameter, speed parameter, acceleration parameter that can preliminary prediction obtain the navigation of next moment.
Step S120, collecting characteristic parameters of the ship to be predicted and Beidou position parameters of the ship navigation to be predicted in a prediction period taking the current moment as the end moment;
because the Beidou positioning system acquires the Beidou position parameters of the ship navigation to be predicted in real time, the Beidou position parameters of the ship navigation to be predicted are stored in the memory after the Beidou position parameters of the ship navigation to be predicted are acquired. When the preliminary predicted Beidou position parameters of the ship sailing at the next moment are corrected, the Beidou position parameters of the ship sailing to be predicted in the prediction period taking the current moment as the end moment are collected from a memory, and the Beidou position parameters of the ship sailing to be predicted in the prediction period are assembled together to form a Beidou position parameter set ，
Is a subset of the Beidou position parameters at the 1 st moment in the prediction period,For predicting the subset of Beidou position parameters at the 2 nd moment in the period,To predict the intra-period thA Beidou position parameter subset at the moment,To predict the intra-period thA subset of the Beidou position parameters of the moment,
Wherein,，Is the firstThe 1 st Beidou position parameter of the moment Beidou position parameter subset,Is the firstThe 2 nd Beidou position parameter of the moment Beidou position parameter subset,Is the firstTime of day Beidou position parameter subsetA plurality of Beidou position parameters,Is the firstTime of day Beidou position parameter subsetThe Beidou position parameters are as follows: the Beidou position parameters such as position parameters, speed parameters, acceleration parameters and the like.
Since different vessels have different characteristic parameters, the different characteristic parameters have different effects on the prediction of the vessel track, when the Beidou position parameter of the ship sailing at the next moment of preliminary prediction is corrected, the characteristic parameters of the vessel to be predicted are also collected from a memory, and the characteristic parameters of the vessel to be predicted are assembled together to form a characteristic parameter set，
Wherein,Is the 1 st characteristic parameter,Is the 2 nd characteristic parameter,Is the firstCharacteristic parameters of,Is the firstThe characteristic parameters are as follows: model of the ship to be predicted, load of the ship to be predicted, age of the ship to be predicted and other characteristic parameters.
Step S130, calculating to obtain internal correction parameters according to characteristic parameters of the ship to be predicted and Beidou position parameters of the ship navigation to be predicted in a prediction period;
Because the interval between the acquisition time and the current time of the Beidou position parameter is longer, the influence of the Beidou position parameter on track prediction is smaller, and the interval between the acquisition time and the current time of the Beidou position parameter is shorter, the influence of the Beidou position parameter on track prediction is larger, and therefore the weight of each Beidou position parameter subset is determined from preset subset weights according to the interval length between the acquisition time and the current time of the Beidou position parameter subset. In addition, each Beidou position parameter subset has different Beidou position parameters, and the influence of the different Beidou position parameters on track prediction is also different, so that the weight of each Beidou position parameter is determined from preset type weights according to the type of each Beidou position parameter in the Beidou position parameter subset. In addition, the ship to be predicted has different characteristic parameters, and the influence of the different characteristic parameters on the track prediction is also different, so the weight of each characteristic parameter of the ship to be predicted is determined from preset class weights according to the class of the characteristic parameter. The preset subset weights, the preset type weights and the preset category weights are all pre-stored in the memory.
And calculating to obtain the internal correction parameters according to the Beidou position parameter set, the weights of the Beidou position parameter subset, the weights of the Beidou position parameters, the characteristic parameter set and the weights of the characteristic parameters. Specifically, the internal correction parameters are calculated according to the following formula:
；
Wherein, Is an internal correction parameter; Is the first The weight of the Beidou position parameters; The adjustment value of the Beidou position parameter is constant 0.32; Is the first The weights of the Beidou position parameter subsets at the moment; the adjustment value for the Beidou position parameter subset is a constant 1.575; The number of the Beidou position parameter subsets in the Beidou position parameter set is the number of the Beidou position parameter subsets; The number of Beidou position parameters in the Beidou position parameter subset; The standard value of the preset Beidou position parameter is set; The total weight of the Beidou position parameter; Is the first Weights of the individual characteristic parameters; The adjustment value of the characteristic parameter is a constant 0.762; is the number of feature parameters; is a standard value of a preset characteristic parameter; Is the total weight of the feature parameters.
Step S140, collecting operation parameters of other vessels centering on the vessel to be predicted and within a preset radius range at the current moment and the operation parameters of the vessel to be predicted;
collecting current operating parameters of all other vessels centering on the vessel to be predicted and within a predetermined radius range through a Beidou positioning system, and collecting the current operating parameters of the vessels together to form an operating parameter set ，
Is the 1 st ship operation parameter subset,Is the operating parameter subset of the 2 nd ship,Is the firstA subset of operating parameters of the vessel,Is the firstA subset of operating parameters of the individual vessel;
Wherein, ，Is the firstThe 1 st operating parameter of the subset of operating parameters,Is the firstThe 2 nd operating parameter of the subset of operating parameters, for example: Is the first The speed of each ship,Is the firstThe position of the vessel.
Collecting current operating parameters of the ship to be predicted through the Beidou positioning system, and collecting the current operating parameters of the ship to be predicted together to form an operating parameter subset of the ship to be predicted，
Wherein,Is the 1 st operation parameter of the ship to be predicted,Is the 2 nd operating parameter of the ship to be predicted.
Step S150, collecting environmental parameters of the ship to be predicted at the current moment;
the weather monitoring system is arranged on the ship to be predicted, and can acquire the environmental parameters such as wind speed, wind direction, wave height, flow speed, flow direction and the like at the current moment of the ship to be predicted in real time, and the environmental parameters at the current moment of the ship to be predicted are integrated to form an environmental parameter set ，
Wherein,Is the 1 st environmental parameter of the current moment of the ship to be predicted,Is the 2 nd environmental parameter of the current moment of the ship to be predicted,To the current moment at the ship to be predictedEach environmental parameter,To the current moment at the ship to be predictedAnd environmental parameters.
Step S160, calculating to obtain external correction parameters according to the running parameters of other ships at the current moment, the environmental parameters of the ship to be predicted at the current moment and the environmental parameters of the ship to be predicted at the current moment;
Firstly, according to the running parameter set of other ships at the current moment Each operating parameter subset of the vessel to be predicted at the current timeAnd calculating the relative speed and the relative distance between each of the other ships and the ship to be predicted at the current moment.
Specifically, the relative speed and the relative distance are obtained according to the following formula:
；
；
Wherein, Is the current timeThe relative speed between the individual vessels and the vessel to be tested; is the current time The relative distance between the individual vessel and the vessel to be tested.
And then, calculating to obtain external correction parameters according to the relative speed and the relative distance between each ship in other ships at the current moment and the ship to be predicted and the environmental parameters at the current moment of the ship to be predicted.
Specifically, the external correction parameter is calculated according to the following formula:
；
Wherein, The external correction parameters are used; A number of operating parameter subsets in the operating parameter set; Is a standard value of a preset relative speed; is a standard value of a preset relative distance; Is the total weight of the relative velocity and relative distance; Is a norm; Is the first Weights of individual environmental parameters; Is the number of environmental parameters; is a standard value of a preset environmental parameter; is the total weight of the environmental parameters.
And step S170, correcting the preliminarily predicted Beidou position parameter sailing at the next moment through the internal correction parameters and the external correction parameters, and finally predicting to obtain the Beidou position parameter sailing at the next moment.
Specifically, the Beidou position parameter of navigation at the next moment is finally predicted according to the following formula:
，
Wherein, The 1 st Beidou position parameter for preliminary prediction of navigation at the next moment,The 2 nd Beidou position parameter for preliminary prediction of navigation at the next moment,Navigation first for the next time of preliminary predictionA plurality of Beidou position parameters,Navigation first for the next time of preliminary predictionAnd the Beidou position parameters.
After the Beidou position parameter of the next moment sailing is finally predicted, the navigation risk of the ship can be judged according to the Beidou position parameter of the next moment sailing which is finally predicted, and the navigation of the ship is guided according to the navigation risk of the ship.
Example two
As shown in fig. 2, the present application provides a marine vessel track prediction system 200 based on a beidou system, comprising: a parameter acquisition unit 210, a parameter prediction unit 220, a parameter collection unit 230, a calculation unit 240 and a correction unit 250.
The parameter acquisition unit 210 acquires Beidou position parameters of the ship to be predicted sailing at the current moment, and the parameter prediction unit 220 preliminarily predicts the Beidou position parameters of the ship to be predicted sailing at the next moment according to the Beidou position parameters of the ship to be predicted sailing at the current moment.
Be provided with big dipper positioning system on waiting to predict the boats and ships, big dipper positioning system can obtain the big dipper position parameter such as position parameter, speed parameter, acceleration parameter that wait to predict the current moment navigation of boats and ships in real time, and according to the big dipper position parameter such as position parameter, angular velocity parameter, acceleration parameter that wait to predict the current moment navigation of boats and ships, big dipper position parameter such as position parameter, speed parameter, acceleration parameter that can preliminary prediction obtain the navigation of next moment.
The parameter collection unit 230 collects characteristic parameters of the ship to be predicted and Beidou position parameters of the ship to be predicted sailing in a prediction period taking the current moment as the end moment.
Because the Beidou positioning system acquires the Beidou position parameters of the ship navigation to be predicted in real time, the Beidou position parameters of the ship navigation to be predicted are stored in the memory after the Beidou position parameters of the ship navigation to be predicted are acquired. When the preliminary predicted Beidou position parameters of the ship sailing at the next moment are corrected, the Beidou position parameters of the ship sailing to be predicted in the prediction period taking the current moment as the end moment are collected from a memory, and the Beidou position parameters of the ship sailing to be predicted in the prediction period are assembled together to form a Beidou position parameter set，
Is a subset of the Beidou position parameters at the 1 st moment in the prediction period,For predicting the subset of Beidou position parameters at the 2 nd moment in the period,To predict the intra-period thA Beidou position parameter subset at the moment,To predict the intra-period thA subset of the Beidou position parameters of the moment,
Wherein,，The 1 st Beidou position parameter which is the subset of the Beidou position parameters at the moment,The 2 nd Beidou position parameter which is the time-of-day Beidou position parameter subset,Is the firstTime of day Beidou position parameter subsetA plurality of Beidou position parameters,Is the firstTime of day Beidou position parameter subsetThe Beidou position parameters are as follows: the Beidou position parameters such as position parameters, speed parameters, acceleration parameters and the like.
Since different vessels have different characteristic parameters, the different characteristic parameters have different effects on the prediction of the vessel track, when the Beidou position parameter of the ship sailing at the next moment of preliminary prediction is corrected, the characteristic parameters of the vessel to be predicted are also collected from a memory, and the characteristic parameters of the vessel to be predicted are assembled together to form a characteristic parameter set，
Wherein,Is the 1 st characteristic parameter,Is the 2 nd characteristic parameter,Is the firstCharacteristic parameters of,Is the firstThe characteristic parameters are as follows: model of the ship to be predicted, load of the ship to be predicted, age of the ship to be predicted and other characteristic parameters.
The calculating unit 240 calculates an internal correction parameter according to the characteristic parameter of the ship to be predicted and the Beidou position parameter of the ship navigation to be predicted in the prediction period.
Because the interval between the acquisition time and the current time of the Beidou position parameter is longer, the influence of the Beidou position parameter on track prediction is smaller, and the interval between the acquisition time and the current time of the Beidou position parameter is shorter, the influence of the Beidou position parameter on track prediction is larger, and therefore the weight of each Beidou position parameter subset is determined from preset subset weights according to the interval length between the acquisition time and the current time of the Beidou position parameter subset. In addition, each Beidou position parameter subset has different Beidou position parameters, and the influence of the different Beidou position parameters on track prediction is also different, so that the weight of each Beidou position parameter is determined from preset type weights according to the type of each Beidou position parameter in the Beidou position parameter subset. In addition, the ship to be predicted has different characteristic parameters, and the influence of the different characteristic parameters on the track prediction is also different, so the weight of each characteristic parameter of the ship to be predicted is determined from preset class weights according to the class of the characteristic parameter. The preset subset weights, the preset type weights and the preset category weights are all pre-stored in the memory.
And calculating to obtain the internal correction parameters according to the Beidou position parameter set, the weights of the Beidou position parameter subset, the weights of the Beidou position parameters, the characteristic parameter set and the weights of the characteristic parameters. Specifically, the internal correction parameters are calculated according to the following formula:
；
Wherein, Is an internal correction parameter; Is the first The weight of the Beidou position parameters; The adjustment value of the Beidou position parameter is constant 0.32; Is the first The weights of the Beidou position parameter subsets at the moment; the adjustment value for the Beidou position parameter subset is a constant 1.575; The number of the Beidou position parameter subsets in the Beidou position parameter set is the number of the Beidou position parameter subsets; The number of Beidou position parameters in the Beidou position parameter subset; The standard value of the preset Beidou position parameter is set; The total weight of the Beidou position parameter; Is the first Weights of the individual characteristic parameters; The adjustment value of the characteristic parameter is a constant 0.762; is the number of feature parameters; is a standard value of a preset characteristic parameter; Is the total weight of the feature parameters.
The parameter collection unit 230 also collects the operation parameters of other vessels centering on the vessel to be predicted and within a predetermined radius range at the current time and the operation parameters of the vessel to be predicted.
Collecting current operating parameters of all other vessels centering on the vessel to be predicted and within a predetermined radius range through a Beidou positioning system, and collecting the current operating parameters of the vessels together to form an operating parameter set，
Is the 1 st ship operation parameter subset,Is the operating parameter subset of the 2 nd ship,Is the firstA subset of operating parameters of the vessel,Is the firstA subset of operating parameters of the individual vessel;
Wherein, ，Is the firstThe 1 st operating parameter of the subset of operating parameters,Is the firstThe 2 nd operating parameter of the subset of operating parameters, for example: Is the first The speed of each ship,Is the firstThe position of the vessel.
Collecting current operating parameters of the ship to be predicted through the Beidou positioning system, and collecting the current operating parameters of the ship to be predicted together to form an operating parameter subset of the ship to be predicted，
Wherein,Is the 1 st operation parameter of the ship to be predicted,Is the 2 nd operating parameter of the ship to be predicted.
The parameter collection unit 230 collects environmental parameters at the current time at the ship to be predicted.
The weather monitoring system is arranged on the ship to be predicted, and can acquire the environmental parameters such as wind speed, wind direction, wave height, flow speed, flow direction and the like at the current moment of the ship to be predicted in real time, and the environmental parameters at the current moment of the ship to be predicted are integrated to form an environmental parameter set，
Wherein,Is the 1 st environmental parameter of the current moment of the ship to be predicted,Is the 2 nd environmental parameter of the current moment of the ship to be predicted,To the current moment at the ship to be predictedEach environmental parameter,To the current moment at the ship to be predictedAnd environmental parameters.
The calculating unit 240 calculates external correction parameters according to the running parameters of the other vessels at the current time, the environmental parameters of the vessels to be predicted at the current time and the environmental parameters of the vessels to be predicted at the current time.
Firstly, according to the running parameter set of other ships at the current momentEach operating parameter subset of the vessel to be predicted at the current timeAnd calculating the relative speed and the relative distance between each of the other ships and the ship to be predicted at the current moment.
Specifically, the relative speed and the relative distance are obtained according to the following formula:
；
；
Wherein, Is the current timeThe relative speed between the individual vessels and the vessel to be tested; is the current time The relative distance between the individual vessel and the vessel to be tested.
And then, calculating to obtain external correction parameters according to the relative speed and the relative distance between each ship in other ships at the current moment and the ship to be predicted and the environmental parameters at the current moment of the ship to be predicted.
Specifically, the external correction parameter is calculated according to the following formula:
；
Wherein, The external correction parameters are used; A number of operating parameter subsets in the operating parameter set; Is a standard value of a preset relative speed; is a standard value of a preset relative distance; Is the total weight of the relative velocity and relative distance; Is a norm; Is the first Weights of individual environmental parameters; Is the number of environmental parameters; is a standard value of a preset environmental parameter; is the total weight of the environmental parameters.
The correction unit 250 corrects the preliminarily predicted Beidou position parameter sailing at the next moment through the internal correction parameters and the external correction parameters, and finally predicts the Beidou position parameter sailing at the next moment.
Specifically, the Beidou position parameter of navigation at the next moment is finally predicted according to the following formula:
，
Wherein, The 1 st Beidou position parameter for preliminary prediction of navigation at the next moment,The 2 nd Beidou position parameter for preliminary prediction of navigation at the next moment,Navigation first for the next time of preliminary predictionA plurality of Beidou position parameters,Navigation first for the next time of preliminary predictionAnd the Beidou position parameters.
After the Beidou position parameter of the next moment sailing is finally predicted, the navigation risk of the ship can be judged according to the Beidou position parameter of the next moment sailing which is finally predicted, and the navigation of the ship is guided according to the navigation risk of the ship.
The ship track prediction method and the ship track prediction device can accurately predict the ship track and perform risk assessment according to the prediction result aiming at the situation of the ship to be predicted, the situation of other ships around the ship to be predicted and the environment situation of the ship to be predicted, so that the ship navigation risk is reduced, and the sea area safety is improved.
It will be evident to those skilled in the art that the invention is not limited to the details of the foregoing illustrative embodiments, and that the present invention may be embodied in other specific forms without departing from the spirit or essential characteristics thereof. The present embodiments are, therefore, to be considered in all respects as illustrative and not restrictive, the scope of the invention being indicated by the appended claims rather than by the foregoing description, and all changes which come within the meaning and range of equivalency of the claims are therefore intended to be embraced therein. Any reference sign in a claim should not be construed as limiting the claim concerned.
Furthermore, it should be understood that although the present disclosure describes embodiments, not every embodiment is provided with a separate embodiment, and that this description is provided for clarity only, and that the disclosure is not limited to the embodiments described in detail below, and that the embodiments described in the examples may be combined as appropriate to form other embodiments that will be apparent to those skilled in the art.
Claims (2)
1. A sea area ship track prediction method based on a Beidou system is characterized by comprising the following steps:
Step S110, acquiring Beidou position parameters of the ship to be predicted, which sails at the current moment, and preliminarily predicting Beidou position parameters of the ship to be predicted, which sails at the next moment, according to the Beidou position parameters of the ship to be predicted, wherein the Beidou position parameters of the ship to be predicted sails at the current moment;
Step S120, collecting characteristic parameters of the ship to be predicted and Beidou position parameters of the ship navigation to be predicted in a prediction period taking the current moment as the end moment;
The method specifically comprises the following substeps:
Collecting Beidou position parameters of ship navigation to be predicted in a prediction period taking the current moment as the end moment, and collecting the Beidou position parameters of ship navigation to be predicted in the prediction period together to form a Beidou position parameter set;
the Beidou position parameter set is provided with a plurality of Beidou position parameter subsets;
collecting characteristic parameters of the ship to be predicted, and collecting the characteristic parameters of the ship to be predicted together to form a characteristic parameter set;
step S130, calculating to obtain internal correction parameters according to characteristic parameters of the ship to be predicted and Beidou position parameters of the ship navigation to be predicted in a prediction period;
The method specifically comprises the following substeps:
determining the weight of each Beidou position parameter subset from preset subset weights according to the interval length between the acquisition time and the current time of the Beidou position parameter subset;
determining the weight of each Beidou position parameter from preset type weights according to the type of each Beidou position parameter in the Beidou position parameter subset;
Determining the weight of each characteristic parameter of the ship to be predicted from preset class weights according to the class of the characteristic parameter;
Calculating to obtain internal correction parameters according to the Beidou position parameter set, the weights of the Beidou position parameter subset, the weights of the Beidou position parameters, the characteristic parameter set and the weights of the characteristic parameters;
the internal correction parameters are calculated according to the following formula:
；
Wherein, Is an internal correction parameter; Is the first Time of day Beidou position parameter subsetThe Beidou position parameters; Is the first The weight of the Beidou position parameters; The adjustment value of the Beidou position parameter is constant 0.32; Is the first The weights of the Beidou position parameter subsets at the moment; the adjustment value for the Beidou position parameter subset is a constant 1.575; The number of the Beidou position parameter subsets in the Beidou position parameter set is the number of the Beidou position parameter subsets; The number of Beidou position parameters in the Beidou position parameter subset; The standard value of the preset Beidou position parameter is set; The total weight of the Beidou position parameter; Is the first Characteristic parameters; Is the first Weights of the individual characteristic parameters; The adjustment value of the characteristic parameter is a constant 0.762; is the number of feature parameters; is a standard value of a preset characteristic parameter; The total weight of the characteristic parameters;
step S140, collecting operation parameters of other vessels centering on the vessel to be predicted and within a preset radius range at the current moment and the operation parameters of the vessel to be predicted;
The method specifically comprises the following substeps:
collecting current operation parameters of all other vessels centering on the vessel to be predicted and within a predetermined radius range, and collecting the current operation parameters of the vessels together to form an operation parameter set;
the operating parameter set has a plurality of operating parameter subsets;
collecting current operating parameters of the ship to be predicted, and collecting the current operating parameters of the ship to be predicted together to form an operating parameter subset of the ship to be predicted;
step S150, collecting environmental parameters of the ship to be predicted at the current moment;
The method specifically comprises the following substeps:
Acquiring environmental parameters of the ship to be predicted at the current moment, and gathering the environmental parameters of the ship to be predicted at the current moment together to form an environmental parameter set;
Step S160, calculating to obtain external correction parameters according to the running parameters of other ships at the current moment, the environmental parameters of the ship to be predicted at the current moment and the environmental parameters of the ship to be predicted at the current moment;
The method specifically comprises the following substeps:
according to each operation parameter subset in the operation parameter set of other ships at the current moment and the operation parameter subset of the ship to be predicted at the current moment, calculating the relative speed and the relative distance between each ship in the other ships at the current moment and the ship to be predicted;
Calculating to obtain external correction parameters according to the relative speed and the relative distance between each ship in other ships at the current moment and the ship to be predicted and the environmental parameters at the current moment of the ship to be predicted;
The external correction parameters are calculated according to the following formula:
；
Wherein, The external correction parameters are used; is the current time The relative speed between the individual vessels and the vessel to be tested; is the current time The relative distance between the ship and the ship to be tested; A number of operating parameter subsets in the operating parameter set; Is a standard value of a preset relative speed; is a standard value of a preset relative distance; Is the total weight of the relative velocity and relative distance; Is a norm; to the current moment at the ship to be predicted A plurality of environmental parameters; Is the first Weights of individual environmental parameters; Is the number of environmental parameters; is a standard value of a preset environmental parameter; is the total weight of the environmental parameters;
Step S170, correcting the preliminarily predicted Beidou position parameter sailing at the next moment through the internal correction parameters and the external correction parameters, and finally predicting to obtain the Beidou position parameter sailing at the next moment;
Finally predicting to obtain Beidou position parameters sailing at the next moment according to the following formula:
，
Wherein, The 1 st Beidou position parameter for preliminary prediction of navigation at the next moment,The 2 nd Beidou position parameter for preliminary prediction of navigation at the next moment,Navigation first for the next time of preliminary predictionA plurality of Beidou position parameters,Navigation first for the next time of preliminary predictionAnd the Beidou position parameters.
2. Sea area ship track prediction system based on beidou system, which is characterized by comprising: the system comprises a parameter acquisition unit, a parameter prediction unit, a parameter collection unit, a calculation unit and a correction unit;
A parameter acquisition unit; acquiring Beidou position parameters of the ship to be predicted sailing at the current moment, and primarily predicting the Beidou position parameters sailing at the next moment by a parameter prediction unit according to the Beidou position parameters sailing at the current moment;
The parameter collecting unit collects characteristic parameters of the ship to be predicted and Beidou position parameters of the ship to be predicted sailing in a prediction period taking the current moment as the end moment;
The method specifically comprises the following steps:
Collecting Beidou position parameters of ship navigation to be predicted in a prediction period taking the current moment as the end moment, and collecting the Beidou position parameters of ship navigation to be predicted in the prediction period together to form a Beidou position parameter set;
the Beidou position parameter set is provided with a plurality of Beidou position parameter subsets;
collecting characteristic parameters of the ship to be predicted, and collecting the characteristic parameters of the ship to be predicted together to form a characteristic parameter set;
The calculation unit calculates internal correction parameters according to the characteristic parameters of the ship to be predicted and Beidou position parameters of the ship navigation to be predicted in the prediction period;
The method specifically comprises the following steps:
determining the weight of each Beidou position parameter subset from preset subset weights according to the interval length between the acquisition time and the current time of the Beidou position parameter subset;
determining the weight of each Beidou position parameter from preset type weights according to the type of each Beidou position parameter in the Beidou position parameter subset;
Determining the weight of each characteristic parameter of the ship to be predicted from preset class weights according to the class of the characteristic parameter;
Calculating to obtain internal correction parameters according to the Beidou position parameter set, the weights of the Beidou position parameter subset, the weights of the Beidou position parameters, the characteristic parameter set and the weights of the characteristic parameters;
the internal correction parameters are calculated according to the following formula:
；
Wherein, Is an internal correction parameter; Is the first Time of day Beidou position parameter subsetThe Beidou position parameters; Is the first The weight of the Beidou position parameters; The adjustment value of the Beidou position parameter is constant 0.32; Is the first The weights of the Beidou position parameter subsets at the moment; the adjustment value for the Beidou position parameter subset is a constant 1.575; The number of the Beidou position parameter subsets in the Beidou position parameter set is the number of the Beidou position parameter subsets; The number of Beidou position parameters in the Beidou position parameter subset; The standard value of the preset Beidou position parameter is set; The total weight of the Beidou position parameter; Is the first Characteristic parameters; Is the first Weights of the individual characteristic parameters; The adjustment value of the characteristic parameter is a constant 0.762; is the number of feature parameters; is a standard value of a preset characteristic parameter; The total weight of the characteristic parameters;
the parameter collecting unit is used for collecting running parameters of other ships taking the ship to be predicted as the center and within a preset radius range at the current moment and running parameters of the ship to be predicted;
The method specifically comprises the following steps:
collecting current operation parameters of all other vessels centering on the vessel to be predicted and within a predetermined radius range, and collecting the current operation parameters of the vessels together to form an operation parameter set;
the operating parameter set has a plurality of operating parameter subsets;
collecting current operating parameters of the ship to be predicted, and collecting the current operating parameters of the ship to be predicted together to form an operating parameter subset of the ship to be predicted;
the parameter collecting unit collects environmental parameters at the current moment of the ship to be predicted;
The method specifically comprises the following steps:
Acquiring environmental parameters of the ship to be predicted at the current moment, and gathering the environmental parameters of the ship to be predicted at the current moment together to form an environmental parameter set;
The calculating unit calculates external correction parameters according to the running parameters of other ships at the current moment, the environment parameters of the ship to be predicted at the current moment and the environment parameters of the ship to be predicted at the current moment;
The method specifically comprises the following steps:
according to each operation parameter subset in the operation parameter set of other ships at the current moment and the operation parameter subset of the ship to be predicted at the current moment, calculating the relative speed and the relative distance between each ship in the other ships at the current moment and the ship to be predicted;
Calculating to obtain external correction parameters according to the relative speed and the relative distance between each ship in other ships at the current moment and the ship to be predicted and the environmental parameters at the current moment of the ship to be predicted;
The external correction parameters are calculated according to the following formula:
；
Wherein, The external correction parameters are used; is the current time The relative speed between the individual vessels and the vessel to be tested; is the current time The relative distance between the ship and the ship to be tested; A number of operating parameter subsets in the operating parameter set; Is a standard value of a preset relative speed; is a standard value of a preset relative distance; Is the total weight of the relative velocity and relative distance; Is a norm; to the current moment at the ship to be predicted A plurality of environmental parameters; Is the first Weights of individual environmental parameters; Is the number of environmental parameters; is a standard value of a preset environmental parameter; is the total weight of the environmental parameters;
The correction unit corrects the preliminarily predicted Beidou position parameter sailing at the next moment through the internal correction parameters and the external correction parameters, and finally predicts the Beidou position parameter sailing at the next moment;
Finally predicting to obtain Beidou position parameters sailing at the next moment according to the following formula:
，
Wherein, The 1 st Beidou position parameter for preliminary prediction of navigation at the next moment,The 2 nd Beidou position parameter for preliminary prediction of navigation at the next moment,Navigation first for the next time of preliminary predictionA plurality of Beidou position parameters,Navigation first for the next time of preliminary predictionAnd the Beidou position parameters.
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