CN116226996A - Maintenance simulation evaluation method and system for ship propulsion device - Google Patents
Maintenance simulation evaluation method and system for ship propulsion device Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention provides a maintenance simulation evaluation method and system for a ship propulsion device, comprising the following steps: s1, determining a reliability and maintainability simulation model of a ship propulsion device; s2, starting a simulation task of the ship propulsion device based on the reliability and maintainability simulation model; s3, simulating the whole process of executing the simulation task by the ship propulsion device, determining the time sequence relation of all failure modes and maintenance tasks along with the pushing of the simulation clock, and pushing the simulation clock by scheduling failure events of the ship propulsion device, so as to complete multiple simulations; s4, determining an evaluation index of the simulation task based on the process data of the multiple simulations so as to evaluate the simulation task. The invention can carry out simulation evaluation calculation on the task under repairable and non-repairable conditions, and help a decision maker to intuitively analyze the places where the ship reliability and maintainability design need to be improved, thereby being beneficial to improving the success rate of the ship equipment task and the battle equipment integrity.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the field of reliability evaluation of ships, and particularly relates to a maintenance simulation evaluation method and system of a ship propulsion device.
Background
The ship is a large complex system and is characterized by being multi-task, multifunctional, multi-use, repairable and the like. Because the ship tasks often have specificity, various task states are often needed to be alternately performed when the ship performs the tasks, and the resource supply is difficult to ensure. The ship is required to minimize the occurrence of failure events in the process of tasks, and repair work is completed timely even after the failure events occur. In the background of the continuous development of high and new technology in recent years, intelligent equipment is continuously applied to ships, the complexity of the system and the maintenance difficulty of the ships are further improved, and the resources and the cost required by the maintenance of the ships are improved. Because of the complex structure and various devices of the ship, analysis and evaluation of the reliability and maintainability design characteristics of the ship are very difficult, and for the occurrence of the problems, the traditional experience method and mathematical analysis method have difficulty in effectively treating the problems.
The computer modeling simulation establishes an actual system simulation model so as to simulate the running state of the system and the change rule of the system along with time, and then obtains the simulation output parameters and basic characteristics of the simulated system through process observation and output data statistics, so as to estimate and infer the actual parameters and performance of the actual system; has the characteristics of good reliability, no damage, safety and reliability, no limitation by external conditions, repeated times, high efficiency and economy. Therefore, the computer modeling simulation technical means is used for analyzing and evaluating the reliability, maintainability and guarantee requirements of the ship when the ship executes the task, and the method has important significance for subsequent reliability and maintainability decisions and improving the success rate of the ship equipment task and the battle integrity.
Disclosure of Invention
Aiming at the defects of the prior art, the invention aims to provide a maintenance simulation evaluation method and system for a ship propulsion device, and aims to solve the problem that the reliability and maintenance design characteristics of a ship are difficult to analyze and evaluate effectively by a traditional experience method and a mathematical analysis method.
In order to achieve the above object, in a first aspect, the present invention provides a method for evaluating maintainability simulation of a ship propulsion device, comprising the steps of:
s1, determining a reliability and maintainability simulation model of a ship propulsion device; the simulation model includes: a device structure sub-model, a device task sub-model, and a device maintenance support sub-model; the device structure sub-model is used for describing the hierarchical logic structure of the ship propulsion device and the required maintenance resource information; the device task sub-model is used for describing a task hierarchical structure and a task execution sequence of the ship; the device maintenance support sub-model is used for describing a hierarchical structure of device maintenance support;
s2, starting a simulation task of the ship propulsion device based on the reliability and maintainability simulation model;
s3, simulating the whole process of executing the simulation task by the ship propulsion device, determining the time sequence relation of all failure modes and maintenance tasks along with the pushing of the simulation clock, and pushing the simulation clock by scheduling failure events of the ship propulsion device so as to complete multiple simulations;
S4, determining an evaluation index of the simulation task based on the process data of the multiple simulations so as to evaluate the simulation task; the evaluation index includes: task reliability, average failure interval time, average repairability maintenance time, and satisfaction rate of maintenance resources.
In an alternative example, the whole process of executing the simulation task by the ship propulsion device is simulated, specifically: the Monte Carlo simulation method is used for simulating the whole process of the whole-stage task of the ship propulsion device, determining the time sequence relation of all failure modes and maintenance tasks along with the pushing of the simulation clock, and the simulation clock is pushed by carrying out scheduling processing on failure events of the propulsion device, so that multiple simulations are completed.
In an alternative example, the whole process of executing the simulation task by the ship propulsion device is simulated, specifically:
s31, initializing an event table and a system simulation clock;
s32, sampling failure mode distribution functions of basic units of each layer of the ship propulsion device to generate respective first failure events, setting time elements of each failure event, determining priority and guaranteeing resource related information, and generating an event table;
S33, judging whether the simulation is finished according to the system simulation clock and the simulation finishing time, if so, turning to a step S36, if not, adding 1 to the simulation times, and executing a step S34;
s34, according to the sequence of time elements and the priority, arranging the events according to the sequence of time elements, and if the time elements are the same, arranging according to the priority; scanning a first event, judging whether the event is a failure event or a maintenance event, judging whether the task stage is repairable if the event is a failure event, inquiring the stock if the task stage is repairable, judging whether maintenance resources are met, if the maintenance resources are met, occupying corresponding maintenance resources, updating a time element, entering maintenance operation, and then scanning the next event; if the task at the stage is not repairable, judging whether the task is a critical equipment fault, if the task is a critical equipment, the task at the stage is failed, and if the task is not repairable, scanning the next event; if the maintenance event updating state is maintenance completion, releasing the occupied resources, judging whether all events are processed according to the event number of which the time unit in the event table is smaller than or equal to the system simulation clock and the scanned event number, scanning the next event if the event is not processed, and executing a step S35 if the event is processed;
S35, after all events with time less than or equal to the system simulation clock in the event table are processed, finding the smallest time element from the events with time elements greater than the system simulation clock, pushing the simulation time to the time element, and turning to step S33;
s36, ending the simulation and recording simulation process data.
In an alternative example, the device structure sub-model includes:
equipment basic information: equipment number, equipment model, equipment name and current state of equipment;
equipment reliability information: reliability distribution function type and parameter value;
equipment maintainability information: maintainability distribution function type and parameter value;
maintenance and guarantee resources required by equipment: the required maintenance resource requirements, spare part models, the number of spare parts and maintenance tools.
In an alternative example, the device task sub-model includes:
task arrangement information: total task name, task sequence start time, task sequence end time;
task sequence information: task sequence name, task profile order, relative start interval time between task profiles, task profile allowed delay time;
Task profile: task profile name, task phase order, task phase duration and task phase allowed delay time;
task stage: task phase name, task phase maintenance type, required equipment name, required equipment number, and required equipment relationship.
In an alternative example, the device repair assurance sub-model includes:
spare part information: spare part number, spare part model, spare part name and spare part satisfaction rate;
maintenance equipment information: tool number, tool model, tool name, total number, and number currently available.
In an alternative example, the evaluation index is specifically:
task reliability:
wherein A is s K represents the simulation running times for the successful times of the task;
average inter-fault time MBTF:
wherein T is BFi To evaluate the failure time interval of the object when the ith failure occurs in the simulation, n 1 N is the number of failures of the evaluation object in the simulation for the total number of failures;
average restorative repair time MTTR:
wherein T is CMu To evaluate the repair time of the object in the simulation that occurs at the nth repair, n 2 For the total number of repairability maintenance, N is the number of faults of the evaluation object in simulation;
Satisfaction rate P c ：
Where m is the total number of the needs of the type of repair resources at the repair level in the simulation, and n is the total number of the type of resources available at the repair level.
In a second aspect, the present invention provides a ship propulsion device maintainability simulation evaluation system, comprising:
the simulation model determining unit is used for determining a reliability and maintainability simulation model of the ship propulsion device; the simulation model includes: a device structure sub-model, a device task sub-model, and a device maintenance support sub-model; the device structure sub-model is used for describing the hierarchical logic structure of the ship propulsion device and the required maintenance resource information; the device task sub-model is used for describing a task hierarchical structure and a task execution sequence of the ship; the device maintenance support sub-model is used for describing a hierarchical structure of device maintenance support;
the task simulation unit is used for starting a simulation task of the ship propulsion device based on the reliability and maintainability simulation model; simulating the whole process of executing the simulation task by the ship propulsion device, determining the time sequence relation of all failure modes and maintenance tasks along with the pushing of the simulation clock, and propelling the simulation clock by dispatching failure events of the ship propulsion device so as to complete multiple simulations;
The simulation evaluation unit is used for determining an evaluation index of the simulation task based on the process data of the multiple simulations so as to evaluate the simulation task; the evaluation index includes: task reliability, average failure interval time, average repairability maintenance time, and satisfaction rate of maintenance resources.
In an alternative example, the task simulation unit simulates the whole process of executing the simulation task by the ship propulsion device, specifically through the following steps: s31, initializing an event table and a system simulation clock; s32, sampling failure mode distribution functions of basic units of each layer of the ship propulsion device to generate respective first failure events, setting time elements of each failure event, determining priority and guaranteeing resource related information, and generating an event table; s33, judging whether the simulation is finished according to the system simulation clock and the simulation finishing time, if so, turning to a step S36, if not, adding 1 to the simulation times, and executing a step S34; s34, according to the sequence of time elements and the priority, arranging the events according to the sequence of time elements, and if the time elements are the same, arranging according to the priority; scanning a first event, judging whether the event is a failure event or a maintenance event, judging whether the task stage is repairable if the event is a failure event, inquiring the stock if the task stage is repairable, judging whether maintenance resources are met, if the maintenance resources are met, occupying corresponding maintenance resources, updating a time element, entering maintenance operation, and then scanning the next event; if the task at the stage is not repairable, judging whether the task is a critical equipment fault, if the task is a critical equipment, the task at the stage is failed, and if the task is not repairable, scanning the next event; if the maintenance event updating state is maintenance completion, releasing the occupied resources, judging whether all events are processed according to the event number of which the time unit in the event table is smaller than or equal to the system simulation clock and the scanned event number, scanning the next event if the event is not processed, and executing a step S35 if the event is processed; s35, after all events with time less than or equal to the system simulation clock in the event table are processed, finding the smallest time element from the events with time elements greater than the system simulation clock, pushing the simulation time to the time element, and turning to step S33; s36, ending the simulation and recording simulation process data.
In a third aspect, the present invention provides an electronic device, comprising: a memory and a processor;
the memory is used for storing a computer program;
the processor is configured to implement the method as provided in the first aspect above when executing the computer program.
In a fourth aspect, the present invention provides a computer readable storage medium having stored thereon a computer program which, when executed by a processor, implements a method as provided in the first aspect above.
In general, the above technical solutions conceived by the present invention have the following beneficial effects compared with the prior art:
the invention provides a maintenance simulation evaluation method and a maintenance simulation evaluation system for a ship propulsion device, which are characterized in that a computer simulation is utilized to simulate the running state of a system and the change rule of the system along with time by using an established actual system simulation model, and then the simulation output parameters and basic characteristics of a simulated system are obtained through observation and statistics of a simulation running process, so that the actual parameters and performances of the actual system are estimated and inferred, and the maintenance simulation evaluation method and the maintenance simulation evaluation system have the characteristics of good controllability, no destructiveness, safety and reliability, no limitation of external conditions (such as meteorological conditions and field airspace), repeated times, high efficiency, economy and the like. The simulation evaluation calculation can be carried out on the task under repairable and non-repairable conditions, the success probability of the key task node and key equipment affecting the task are output through a statistical analysis method, and a decision maker is helped to intuitively analyze the places where the ship reliability and maintainability design need to be improved, so that the success rate of the ship equipment task and the combat readiness are helped to be improved.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a method for evaluating maintainability simulation of a ship propulsion device provided by an embodiment of the invention;
FIG. 2 is a schematic general flow diagram of a method for modeling and evaluating the reliability and maintainability of a ship propulsion device task at all stages according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 3 is a schematic diagram of a hierarchical logic diagram of an apparatus according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 4 is a task structure hierarchy diagram provided by an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 5 is a schematic diagram of a monte carlo simulation flow provided in an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 6 is a structural diagram of a maintainability simulation evaluation system of a ship propulsion device provided by an embodiment of the invention.
Detailed Description
The present invention will be described in further detail with reference to the drawings and examples, in order to make the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention more apparent. It should be understood that the specific embodiments described herein are for purposes of illustration only and are not intended to limit the scope of the invention.
The invention relates to a maintenance simulation evaluation method and a maintenance simulation evaluation system for a ship propulsion device, which are implemented by establishing a maintenance simulation model of the ship propulsion device; inputting parameters required by failure modes and maintenance tasks; the repairability maintenance process of the propulsion device during the normal execution of the task of the ship is simulated by combining the equipment resource conditions participating in the maintenance task, the time sequence relation between the failure mode of the propulsion device and the maintenance task is determined through simulation, the discrete events are processed and scheduled to propel the simulation clock, and the simulation for the specified times is repeatedly completed; the invention can output the statistic data of the maintenance time and the resource use condition of each unit of the propulsion device, and provides basis for optimizing the maintenance balance of the propulsion device. Thereby improving the mission success rate and the combat readiness integrity of the ship system.
The invention aims to overcome the defects of the prior art and custom meet the specificity of a ship to execute tasks, and provides a maintenance evaluation method of a ship propulsion device based on Monte Carlo simulation. The invention can output the reliability of the task, the average fault interval time, the average repairability maintenance time and the resource satisfaction rate, and help a decision maker to intuitively analyze the places where the reliability and the maintainability of the ship are designed to be improved, thereby being beneficial to improving the success rate of the ship equipment task and the battle preparation integrity.
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a method for evaluating maintainability simulation of a ship propulsion device provided by an embodiment of the invention; as shown in fig. 1, the method comprises the following steps:
s1, determining a reliability and maintainability simulation model of a ship propulsion device; the simulation model includes: a device structure sub-model, a device task sub-model, and a device maintenance support sub-model; the device structure sub-model is used for describing the hierarchical logic structure of the ship propulsion device and the required maintenance resource information; the device task sub-model is used for describing a task hierarchical structure and a task execution sequence of the ship; the device maintenance support sub-model is used for describing a hierarchical structure of device maintenance support;
S2, starting a simulation task of the ship propulsion device based on the reliability and maintainability simulation model;
s3, simulating the whole process of executing the simulation task by the ship propulsion device, determining the time sequence relation of all failure modes and maintenance tasks along with the pushing of the simulation clock, and pushing the simulation clock by scheduling failure events of the ship propulsion device so as to complete multiple simulations;
s4, determining an evaluation index of the simulation task based on the process data of the multiple simulations so as to evaluate the simulation task; the evaluation index includes: task reliability, average failure interval time, average repairability maintenance time, and satisfaction rate of maintenance resources.
The specific technical scheme of the invention is as follows: a ship propulsion device maintainability simulation evaluation method is shown in fig. 2, and comprises the following steps:
s1, constructing a reliability and maintainability simulation model of a ship propulsion device;
according to ship characteristics and task requirements, the propulsion device reliability and maintainability simulation model comprises a device structure model, a device task model and a device maintenance guarantee model; the structure model is used for describing a hierarchical logic structure of the propulsion device, required maintenance resources and the like, and mainly comprises basic information, reliability information, maintainability information and required maintenance guarantee resources of the device; the task model mainly describes a task hierarchical structure and an execution sequence thereof and mainly comprises task arrangement, a task sequence, a task section and a task stage; the maintenance support model mainly describes a hierarchical structure of a maintenance support system and mainly comprises spare part information and maintenance equipment information.
The specific attribute setting of the ship propulsion device structure model comprises the following steps:
1) Equipment basic information: equipment number, equipment model, equipment name, current status of equipment (normal, failure);
2) Equipment reliability information: the type of reliability distribution function (exponential distribution, n-tai distribution, weibull distribution), parameter values;
3) Equipment maintainability information: maintainability distribution function type (exponential distribution, n-tai distribution, weibull distribution), parameter value;
4) Maintenance and guarantee resources required by equipment: the required maintenance resource demands, spare part models, spare part quantity and maintenance tools;
the modeling process of the ship propulsion device structure model is as follows:
1) The hierarchical tree of the equipment structure is established, the propulsion device is divided into different layers such as a system and equipment according to the functions and the structural composition of the ship propulsion device, and the hierarchical tree of the ship propulsion device is established similarly to the hierarchical tree of the ship propulsion device shown in fig. 3.
2) The information to be input in the input structure hierarchy tree includes basic information, reliability information, and maintainability information.
3) After the maintenance support model is built, the maintenance support resource information required by the equipment is input, the equipment and the maintenance support resource are dynamically associated, the supporting effect of the maintenance support system on the main equipment system is reflected, and the operation process of the maintenance support process and the utilization process of the resource are reflected.
Specific attribute settings of the ship equipment task model include:
1) Task arrangement information: total task name, task sequence start time, task sequence end time.
2) Task sequence information: task sequence name, task profile order, relative start interval time between task profiles, task profile allows delay time.
3) Task profile: task profile name, task phase order, task phase duration, task phase allowed delay time.
4) Task stage: task phase name, task phase repair type (repairable, unrepairable), required equipment name, required number of equipment, required equipment relationship (series, parallel, voting).
The modeling process of the task model is as follows:
1) Listing the task schedule of the equipment and giving its task sequence. And analyzing the task sequence of the ship equipment, listing the equipment task sequence according to the execution sequence, and giving the starting time and the ending time of the equipment task sequence.
2) Each task sequence is subdivided and its task profile is listed. And analyzing each task sequence, and sequentially giving the relative starting interval time and the allowable delay time between the task profiles.
3) Each task section is subdivided, and the task phases are listed. The task profiles are analyzed to give their task phases and their durations and allowable delay times in sequence. After the three steps are completed, a task structure hierarchy (numerals in brackets are time periods) as shown in fig. 4 is established.
4) On the basis of the above, the main equipment required in the task stage execution process is set up. And establishing an influence relation graph of the required equipment on completion of the task stage. Wherein each equipment includes series, parallel and voting relationships. The equipment involved is critical to the success of the task, with a task priority of 1. By setting the equipment required in the task stage, the task is associated with the equipment, and the auxiliary and supporting effects of the equipment on the task stage are reflected.
Specific attribute settings of the maintenance support model include:
1) Spare part information: spare part number, spare part model, spare part name, spare part satisfaction rate
2) Maintenance equipment information: tool number, tool model, tool name, total number, number currently available.
The modeling process of the maintenance support model is as follows:
step S1, establishing a maintenance guarantee model according to the two basic information
S2, inputting parameters needed to be used in the ship maintainability simulation model, and starting a simulation task on the basis of the model established in the step 1.
Step S3, simulating the whole process of the whole-stage task of the ship propulsion device by using a Monte Carlo simulation method, determining the time sequence relation of all failure modes and maintenance tasks along with the pushing of the simulation clock, and propelling the simulation clock by scheduling failure events of the propulsion device, so as to complete a plurality of simulation specific operation flows as shown in FIG. 5, wherein the operation steps are as follows:
step 31: various variables of the initialization simulation mainly comprise the initialization processing of an event table and the initialization of a system simulation clock.
Step 32: the failure mode distribution function of each level basic unit of the propulsion device is sampled to generate respective first failure events, the time elements of each failure event are set, the priority and the related information of the guaranteed resources are determined, and an event table is generated.
Step 33: according to the system simulation clock T simulation end time T f Judging whether the simulation is finished or not, if T is more than or equal to T f Adding 1 to the simulation times, judging whether the simulation is finished, and turning to step 36; otherwise proceed to step 34.
Step 34: according to the sequence of time elements and the priority, arranging the events according to the sequence of time elements, and if the time elements are the same, arranging according to the priority; scanning a first event, judging whether the event is a failure event or a maintenance event, judging whether the task stage is repairable if the event is a failure event, inquiring the stock if the task stage is repairable, judging whether the resource is satisfied, if the resource is satisfied, occupying the corresponding resource, updating a time element, entering a maintenance operation, and then scanning the next event; if the task at the stage is not repairable, judging whether the task is a critical equipment fault, if the task is a critical equipment, the task at the stage is failed, and if the task is not repairable, scanning the next event; if the update status of the maintenance event is maintenance completion, and the occupied resource is released, judging whether all the events are processed according to the number of the events with the time unit less than or equal to T in the event table and the number of the scanned events, if not, scanning the next event, and if so, turning to the step 35.
Specifically, whether a certain device is a key device is determined mainly by whether the failure ship task of the device can be continued.
More specifically, the failure of the key equipment directly affects the success of the ship task, if the failure key equipment cannot be successfully maintained, the simulation is directly ended, the simulation result is that the task fails, data is recorded, and the next simulation is performed. The failure of the key equipment is also related to the determination of the priority of the task in the event table, and the priority in the event table is determined according to the influence degree of the failure mode on the task.
Wherein, the sequence of events in the event table is determined by the time and priority of the occurrence of failure event, the priority depends on the influence degree of failure mode on the task, if the key equipment affecting the task fails, the task priority P m Taking the maximum value, determining the failure event sequence on the event table by the failure event, and if another failure event with higher priority occurs when the failure event occurs but does not enter a maintenance state, maintaining the failure event with higher priority preferentially and occupying corresponding resources.
Step 35: after processing all events with time less than or equal to T in the event table, find the smallest time element from all events with time elements greater than T, advance the simulation time to the time element, and go to step 33.
Step 36: and (4) after the simulation is finished, recording simulation process data, and entering step 4.
And S4, carrying out evaluation index statistics by analyzing the simulation data.
The evaluation index specifically includes:
task reliability
In which A s K represents the simulation running times for the successful times of the task; />
Average inter-fault time MBTF:
wherein T is BFi In order to evaluate the fault time interval when the ith failure occurs in the simulation of the object, N is the number of times that the object fails in the simulation;
Average restorative repair time MTTR:
wherein T is cMi In order to evaluate the appearance of an object in the simulation at the ith reparative dimensionRepair time, N is the number of times that the evaluation object has faults in the simulation;
satisfaction rate P c ：
Where m is the total number of requirements for the type of repair resources at the repair level in the simulation, and n is the total number of types of resources available at the repair level.
Specifically, in step S34, the failure event is generated by sampling the reliability distribution function of each level of the basic constituent units of the propulsion apparatus portion of the ship, and the repair time corresponding to the failure time is generated from the input repair distribution function.
Specifically, the reliability and maintainability simulation flow of the propulsion device can be divided into a master control module, a reliability simulation module, a maintainability simulation module and a guarantee simulation module; the main function of the master control module is to organically connect each independent other functional simulation module in series, manage and schedule other independent simulation sub-modules according to the requirement, coordinate the relation between the modules, exchange and transmit data among other sub-modules in the whole, and finally count the data generated by simulation and output the result; the reliability simulation module is mainly responsible for simulating the failure mode condition of the device during the task, generating failure time and inserting an event table, so as to excite the generation of maintenance events; the repairability simulation module is used for simulating the repairability maintenance process on the basis of reliability simulation and processing the current ongoing maintenance time and the upcoming maintenance event; the guaranteed simulation module reasonably distributes and coordinates available maintainability guaranteed resource states (resource occupation, release, deprivation and the like) in the system, and determines the logistic delay time of each task.
Specifically, the basis of the generation of various random variables in the simulation process is to generate a random function uniformly distributed on a [0,1] interval, then obtain the random variables through an inverse transformation method or a function transformation method, and generate a [0,1] uniformly distributed random number expression as follows:
X n+1 ＝(aX n +C)，(modm)，n≥0
where m is the modulus, a is the multiplier and c is the increment. Initial value X 0 Is a seed, and m>0,m>a,m>c,X 0 <m；
To obtain [0,1]]Upper random number R n (n=1, 2, …) wherein 0.ltoreq.X n Less than or equal to (m-1), taking m=2 k The maximum period of the obtainable random number is t=2 k-2 。
Specifically, the operation of the simulation is driven by an event, and the event table is a two-dimensional ordered record table essentially and consists of the occurrence time of the event and the identification of the event; the basis of the arrangement sequence is the sequence of occurrence of failure events in an event table, wherein the time is the time of an analog clock; at the start of the simulation, the system inserts events into the event table in the time order or priority of event occurrence.
In particular, in the event table, the arrangement of the failure events is based on the priority of the failure events, wherein the determination of the priority P depends on two parameters, including the task priority P of the failure events m And time priority P t The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the The task priority is determined by the influence degree of the failure event on the task success, and the formula is as follows:
Wherein, θ represents the influence degree of the task, the quantized value corresponding to the influence degree from small to large is 0.2,0.4,0.6,0.8, namely, the value of θ can be represented as a vector:
θ＝[0.2,0.4,0.6,0.8]
the time priority is mainly determined by the influence degree of the corresponding maintenance event on the task success, and is determined according to the duration of the maintenance event, and the formula is as follows:
wherein lambda represents the required force for maintenance, and k is the weight; the total priority takes the sum of task priority and time priority, namely:
P＝P m +P t
specifically, two clocks exist in the system, the system simulates the global clock TIME and marks the own TIME element TIME-cell, the simulated operation is advanced under the combined action of the two clocks, and a failure event A is generated i Time-cell [ i ]]Representation A i When A is i When the required resources can be satisfied after retrieval, time-cell [ i ]]Advance to A i The time at which the maintenance operation is completed,
time-cell[i]＝time-cell[i]+λ i
λ i representation A i When the time required for the current maintenance operation is higher than the time required for the failure event A with high priority k Deprive A i After the resource of (1) its maintenance activity is updated, time-cell [ i ]]＝TIME。
The invention provides a method for modeling and simulating and evaluating the reliability and maintainability of a ship propulsion device, which is used as an advanced means. The simulation evaluation calculation can be carried out on the task under repairable and non-repairable conditions, the success probability of the key task node and key equipment affecting the task are output through a statistical analysis method, and a decision maker is helped to intuitively analyze the places where the ship reliability and maintainability design need to be improved, so that the success rate of the ship equipment task and the combat readiness are helped to be improved.
Fig. 6 is a structural diagram of a simulation evaluation system for maintainability of a ship propulsion device according to an embodiment of the present invention, as shown in fig. 6, including:
a simulation model determining unit 610 for determining a reliability and maintainability simulation model of the ship propulsion device; the simulation model includes: a device structure sub-model, a device task sub-model, and a device maintenance support sub-model; the device structure sub-model is used for describing the hierarchical logic structure of the ship propulsion device and the required maintenance resource information; the device task sub-model is used for describing a task hierarchical structure and a task execution sequence of the ship; the device maintenance support sub-model is used for describing a hierarchical structure of device maintenance support;
a task simulation unit 620, configured to start a simulation task of the ship propulsion device based on the reliability and maintainability simulation model; simulating the whole process of executing the simulation task by the ship propulsion device, determining the time sequence relation of all failure modes and maintenance tasks along with the pushing of the simulation clock, and propelling the simulation clock by dispatching failure events of the ship propulsion device so as to complete multiple simulations;
a simulation evaluation unit 630, configured to determine an evaluation index of the simulation task based on the process data of the multiple simulations, so as to evaluate the simulation task; the evaluation index includes: task reliability, average failure interval time, average repairability maintenance time, and satisfaction rate of maintenance resources.
It should be understood that the detailed functional implementation of each unit may be referred to the description in the foregoing method embodiment, and will not be repeated herein.
In addition, an embodiment of the present invention provides an electronic device, including: a memory and a processor;
the memory is used for storing a computer program;
the processor is configured to implement the method in the above-described embodiments when executing the computer program.
Furthermore, the present invention provides a computer-readable storage medium having stored thereon a computer program which, when executed by a processor, implements the method in the above embodiments.
Based on the method in the above embodiments, an embodiment of the present invention provides a computer program product, which when run on a processor causes the processor to perform the method in the above embodiments.
Based on the method in the above embodiment, the embodiment of the present invention further provides a chip, including one or more processors and an interface circuit. Optionally, the chip may also contain a bus. Wherein:
the processor may be an integrated circuit chip having signal processing capabilities. In implementation, the steps of the above method may be performed by integrated logic circuits of hardware in a processor or by instructions in the form of software. The processor may be a general purpose processor, a Digital Signal Processor (DSP), an Application Specific Integrated Circuit (ASIC), a Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) or other programmable logic device, discrete gate or transistor logic, or discrete hardware components. The methods and steps disclosed in the embodiments of the present application may be implemented or performed. A general purpose processor may be a microprocessor or the processor may be any conventional processor or the like.
The interface circuit can be used for sending or receiving data, instructions or information, the processor can process by utilizing the data, instructions or other information received by the interface circuit, and the processing completion information can be sent out through the interface circuit.
Optionally, the chip further comprises a memory, which may include read only memory and random access memory, and provides operating instructions and data to the processor. A portion of the memory may also include non-volatile random access memory (NVRAM).
Optionally, the memory stores executable software modules or data structures and the processor may perform corresponding operations by invoking operational instructions stored in the memory (which may be stored in an operating system).
Alternatively, the interface circuit may be configured to output the execution result of the processor.
It should be noted that, the functions corresponding to the processor and the interface circuit may be implemented by hardware design, or may be implemented by software design, or may be implemented by a combination of software and hardware, which is not limited herein.
It will be appreciated that the steps of the method embodiments described above may be performed by logic circuitry in the form of hardware in a processor or instructions in the form of software.
It should be understood that, the sequence number of each step in the foregoing embodiment does not mean the execution sequence, and the execution sequence of each process should be determined by the function and the internal logic of each process, and should not limit the implementation process of the embodiment of the present application in any way. In addition, in some possible implementations, each step in the foregoing embodiments may be selectively performed according to practical situations, and may be partially performed or may be performed entirely, which is not limited herein.
It is to be appreciated that the processor in embodiments of the present application may be a central processing unit (cen tral processing unit, CPU), but may also be other general purpose processors, digital signal processors (digital signal processor, DSP), application specific integrated circuits (application specific integrated circuit, ASIC), field programmable gate arrays (field programmable gate array, FPGA) or other programmable logic devices, transistor logic devices, hardware components, or any combination thereof. The general purpose processor may be a microprocessor, but in the alternative, it may be any conventional processor.
The method steps in the embodiments of the present application may be implemented by hardware, or may be implemented by a processor executing software instructions. The software instructions may be comprised of corresponding software modules that may be stored in random access memory (random access memory, RAM), flash memory, read-only memory (ROM), programmable ROM (PROM), erasable programmable PROM (EPROM), electrically erasable programmable EPROM (EEPROM), registers, hard disk, a removable disk, a CD-ROM, or any other form of storage medium known in the art. An exemplary storage medium is coupled to the processor such the processor can read information from, and write information to, the storage medium. In the alternative, the storage medium may be integral to the processor. The processor and the storage medium may reside in an ASIC.
In the above embodiments, it may be implemented in whole or in part by software, hardware, firmware, or any combination thereof. When implemented in software, may be implemented in whole or in part in the form of a computer program product. The computer program product includes one or more computer instructions. When loaded and executed on a computer, produces a flow or function in accordance with embodiments of the present application, in whole or in part. The computer may be a general purpose computer, a special purpose computer, a computer network, or other programmable apparatus. The computer instructions may be stored in or transmitted across a computer-readable storage medium. The computer instructions may be transmitted from one website, computer, server, or data center to another website, computer, server, or data center by a wired (e.g., coaxial cable, fiber optic, digital Subscriber Line (DSL)), or wireless (e.g., infrared, wireless, microwave, etc.). The computer readable storage medium may be any available medium that can be accessed by a computer or a data storage device such as a server, data center, etc. that contains an integration of one or more available media. The usable medium may be a magnetic medium (e.g., a floppy disk, a hard disk, a magnetic tape), an optical medium (e.g., a DVD), or a semiconductor medium (e.g., a Solid State Disk (SSD)), or the like.
It will be readily appreciated by those skilled in the art that the foregoing description is merely a preferred embodiment of the invention and is not intended to limit the invention, but any modifications, equivalents, improvements or alternatives falling within the spirit and principles of the invention are intended to be included within the scope of the invention.
Claims (10)
1. The maintenance simulation evaluation method for the ship propulsion device is characterized by comprising the following steps of:
s1, determining a reliability and maintainability simulation model of a ship propulsion device; the simulation model includes: a device structure sub-model, a device task sub-model, and a device maintenance support sub-model; the device structure sub-model is used for describing the hierarchical logic structure of the ship propulsion device and the required maintenance resource information; the device task sub-model is used for describing a task hierarchical structure and a task execution sequence of the ship; the device maintenance support sub-model is used for describing a hierarchical structure of device maintenance support;
s2, starting a simulation task of the ship propulsion device based on the reliability and maintainability simulation model;
s3, simulating the whole process of executing the simulation task by the ship propulsion device, determining the time sequence relation of all failure modes and maintenance tasks along with the pushing of the simulation clock, and pushing the simulation clock by scheduling failure events of the ship propulsion device so as to complete multiple simulations;
S4, determining an evaluation index of the simulation task based on the process data of the multiple simulations so as to evaluate the simulation task; the evaluation index includes: task reliability, average failure interval time, average repairability maintenance time, and satisfaction rate of maintenance resources.
2. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that the whole process of performing the simulation task of the ship propulsion device is simulated, in particular: the Monte Carlo simulation method is used for simulating the whole process of the whole-stage task of the ship propulsion device, determining the time sequence relation of all failure modes and maintenance tasks along with the pushing of the simulation clock, and the simulation clock is pushed by carrying out scheduling processing on failure events of the propulsion device, so that multiple simulations are completed.
3. The method according to claim 1 or 2, characterized in that the whole process of performing the simulation task by the ship propulsion device is simulated, in particular:
s31, initializing an event table and a system simulation clock;
s32, sampling failure mode distribution functions of basic units of each layer of the ship propulsion device to generate respective first failure events, setting time elements of each failure event, determining priority and guaranteeing resource related information, and generating an event table;
S33, judging whether the simulation is finished according to the system simulation clock and the simulation finishing time, if so, turning to a step S36, if not, adding 1 to the simulation times, and executing a step S34;
s34, according to the sequence of time elements and the priority, arranging the events according to the sequence of time elements, and if the time elements are the same, arranging according to the priority; scanning a first event, judging whether the event is a failure event or a maintenance event, judging whether the task stage is repairable if the event is a failure event, inquiring the stock if the task stage is repairable, judging whether maintenance resources are met, if the maintenance resources are met, occupying corresponding maintenance resources, updating a time element, entering maintenance operation, and then scanning the next event; if the task at the stage is not repairable, judging whether the task is a critical equipment fault, if the task is a critical equipment, the task at the stage is failed, and if the task is not repairable, scanning the next event; if the maintenance event updating state is maintenance completion, releasing the occupied resources, judging whether all events are processed according to the event number of which the time unit in the event table is smaller than or equal to the system simulation clock and the scanned event number, scanning the next event if the event is not processed, and executing a step S35 if the event is processed;
S35, after all events with time less than or equal to the system simulation clock in the event table are processed, finding the smallest time element from the events with time elements greater than the system simulation clock, pushing the simulation time to the time element, and turning to step S33;
s36, ending the simulation and recording simulation process data.
4. A method according to any one of claims 1 to 3, wherein the device structure sub-model comprises:
equipment basic information: equipment number, equipment model, equipment name and current state of equipment;
equipment reliability information: reliability distribution function type and parameter value;
equipment maintainability information: maintainability distribution function type and parameter value;
maintenance and guarantee resources required by equipment: the required maintenance resource requirements, spare part models, the number of spare parts and maintenance tools.
5. A method according to any one of claims 1 to 3, wherein the device task sub-model comprises:
task arrangement information: total task name, task sequence start time, task sequence end time;
task sequence information: task sequence name, task profile order, relative start interval time between task profiles, task profile allowed delay time;
Task profile: task profile name, task phase order, task phase duration and task phase allowed delay time;
task stage: task phase name, task phase maintenance type, required equipment name, required equipment number, and required equipment relationship.
6. A method according to any one of claims 1 to 3, wherein the device maintenance support sub-model comprises:
spare part information: spare part number, spare part model, spare part name and spare part satisfaction rate;
maintenance equipment information: tool number, tool model, tool name, total number, and number currently available.
7. A method according to any one of claims 1 to 3, characterized in that the evaluation index is in particular:
task reliability R m ：
Wherein A is s K represents the simulation running times for the successful times of the task;
average inter-fault time MBTF:
wherein T is BFi To evaluate the failure time interval of the object when the ith failure occurs in the simulation, n 1 N is the number of failures of the evaluation object in the simulation for the total number of failures;
average restorative repair time MTTR:
wherein T is CMi To evaluate the repair time of an object in a simulation that occurs at the ith repair, n 2 For the total number of repairability maintenance, N is the number of faults of the evaluation object in simulation;
satisfaction rate P c ：
Where m is the total number of the needs of the type of repair resources at the repair level in the simulation, and n is the total number of the type of resources available at the repair level.
8. A ship propulsion device maintainability simulation assessment system, comprising:
the simulation model determining unit is used for determining a reliability and maintainability simulation model of the ship propulsion device; the simulation model includes: a device structure sub-model, a device task sub-model, and a device maintenance support sub-model; the device structure sub-model is used for describing the hierarchical logic structure of the ship propulsion device and the required maintenance resource information; the device task sub-model is used for describing a task hierarchical structure and a task execution sequence of the ship; the device maintenance support sub-model is used for describing a hierarchical structure of device maintenance support;
the task simulation unit is used for starting a simulation task of the ship propulsion device based on the reliability and maintainability simulation model; simulating the whole process of executing the simulation task by the ship propulsion device, determining the time sequence relation of all failure modes and maintenance tasks along with the pushing of the simulation clock, and propelling the simulation clock by dispatching failure events of the ship propulsion device so as to complete multiple simulations;
The simulation evaluation unit is used for determining an evaluation index of the simulation task based on the process data of the multiple simulations so as to evaluate the simulation task; the evaluation index includes: task reliability, average failure interval time, average repairability maintenance time, and satisfaction rate of maintenance resources.
9. The system according to claim 8, wherein the task simulation unit simulates the whole process of performing the simulation task by the ship propulsion device, in particular by: s31, initializing an event table and a system simulation clock; s32, sampling failure mode distribution functions of basic units of each layer of the ship propulsion device to generate respective first failure events, setting time elements of each failure event, determining priority and guaranteeing resource related information, and generating an event table; s33, judging whether the simulation is finished according to the system simulation clock and the simulation finishing time, if so, turning to a step S36, if not, adding 1 to the simulation times, and executing a step S34; s34, according to the sequence of time elements and the priority, arranging the events according to the sequence of time elements, and if the time elements are the same, arranging according to the priority; scanning a first event, judging whether the event is a failure event or a maintenance event, judging whether the task stage is repairable if the event is a failure event, inquiring the stock if the task stage is repairable, judging whether maintenance resources are met, if the maintenance resources are met, occupying corresponding maintenance resources, updating a time element, entering maintenance operation, and then scanning the next event; if the task at the stage is not repairable, judging whether the task is a critical equipment fault, if the task is a critical equipment, the task at the stage is failed, and if the task is not repairable, scanning the next event; if the maintenance event updating state is maintenance completion, releasing the occupied resources, judging whether all events are processed according to the event number of which the time unit in the event table is smaller than or equal to the system simulation clock and the scanned event number, scanning the next event if the event is not processed, and executing a step S35 if the event is processed; s35, after all events with time less than or equal to the system simulation clock in the event table are processed, finding the smallest time element from the events with time elements greater than the system simulation clock, pushing the simulation time to the time element, and turning to step S33; s36, ending the simulation and recording simulation process data.
10. An electronic device, comprising: a memory and a processor;
the memory is used for storing a computer program;
the processor being adapted to implement the method of any of claims 1-7 when executing the computer program.
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