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CN109902880A - A kind of city stream of people's prediction technique generating confrontation network based on Seq2Seq - Google Patents

A kind of city stream of people's prediction technique generating confrontation network based on Seq2Seq Download PDF

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CN109902880A
CN109902880A CN201910195736.1A CN201910195736A CN109902880A CN 109902880 A CN109902880 A CN 109902880A CN 201910195736 A CN201910195736 A CN 201910195736A CN 109902880 A CN109902880 A CN 109902880A
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people
data
network
stream
prediction
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王森章
缪浩
尹成语
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Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics
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Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics
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Abstract

The invention discloses a kind of city stream of people's prediction techniques that confrontation network is generated based on Seq2Seq, comprising: the urban human flow data of different time is abstracted into " picture frame " first, flow of the people is indicated with thermodynamic chart;It is divided into training data and label by data are observed according to the time, converts image problem for this problem;The overall thought that confrontation network is generated using WGAN, generator generates the flow of the people in certain following a period of time using Seq2Seq method based on historical data, while the external factor such as weather are added;Arbiter uses the true and false data of Wasserstein distance discrimination;It combines to generate to fight to lose in training process and continues to optimize generator and arbiter with backpropagation.Finally, when arbiter can not differentiate true and false, following city flow of the people is predicted using optimised generator.Method proposed by the present invention has used generation confrontation network to carry out urban human volume forecasting for the first time, combines external environmental factor, solves the problems, such as that fuzzy prediction and algorithmic statement are slow.

Description

A kind of city stream of people's prediction technique generating confrontation network based on Seq2Seq
Technical field
The present invention provides a kind of city stream of people's prediction technique that confrontation network is generated based on Seq2Seq, is related to intelligent friendship Logical field is mainly used for city stream of people prediction, has in Urban Traffic Planning, citizens' activities and in terms of reducing traffic risk important Effect.
Background technique
Contradiction with the acceleration of Urbanization in China, between ever-increasing urban population and limited space resources Increasingly sharpen, traffic jam issue is caused to become a great problem for hindering urban development.Since the sixties in last century, the world Urban Traffic Planning and urban traffic control are studied by various countries, but with the continuous expansion of city size and traffic condition It is increasingly sophisticated, it is no longer feasible to carry out effective traffic administration against both measures, intelligent transportation system (ITS, Intelligent Transportation System) it comes into being.Intelligent transportation system combines advanced physical communication equipment And intelligent computer technology, it is established that for the information prediction and management system of entire transportation network, it is comprehensively effective at present Solve the problems, such as the optimal path of the traffic and transport field including traffic congestion.
City stream of people prediction is the important component of intelligent transportation system, there is important research application in many fields Value carries out the interest that city stream of people prediction increasingly causes researcher using machine learning techniques, and classical is used for urban human The method of stream prediction is all based on statistical method mostly, there is the methods of ARIMA, Kalman filter, these are based on statistical side Method can only cannot all predict the stream of people in entire city for specific region, and such method cannot all embody number very well According to it is spatiotemporal.With advances in technology, the collection of the promotion of hardware and mass data, neural network is due to its excellent performance Performance and be widely used, with convolutional neural networks, circulation nerve net and its a series of variants network structure proposition, very More researchers have been used in the stream of people's prediction of city, a series of new method occur, such as: ST-Resnet, STDN and The methods of DeepTransport, these methods neural network based learn from a large amount of data to feature, and well The spatiotemporal of data is utilized, and obtains superior performance.Above research is all existing in city stream of people prediction The technology exploration of aspect and further optimization, but these above-mentioned having some limitations property of method.Firstly, major part Preceding research all only focuses on stream of people's prediction of next period, not can be carried out multi-step prediction;Secondly existing method all exists The problem of fuzzy prediction, is predicted using the method that average value obtains, and it is not very accurate for predicting the data come;Most It is exactly exactly afterwards simply to be seen as external spy to the utilization of much external informations such as weather, vacation and road information Sign, if it is possible to these information be used carefully, the prediction for the region stream of people will be substantially improved.
To sum up, existing city stream of people prediction model often has ignored the spatial coherence in stream of people's prediction between section, There is defect in terms of regional prediction, while the problem of there is also fuzzy predictions.Therefore, it is accurate often to there is prediction in existing issue Degree and the lower defect of efficiency.
Summary of the invention
Goal of the invention: the purpose of the present invention is in view of the drawbacks of the prior art, provide a kind of generate based on Seq2Seq to fight City stream of people's prediction technique of network, for solving the several defect problems proposed in terms of background technique.Using of the invention public The method opened can efficiently use the temporal correlation of transport data stream to realize stream of people's prediction of entire city scope, solve The problem of fuzzy prediction, and can guarantee there is higher precision of prediction in varied situations.
A kind of technical solution: city stream of people's prediction technique generating confrontation network based on Seq2Seq, the specific steps are as follows:
Step 1: data prediction
1) city: being divided into the grid chart of a m*n according to longitude and latitude by region division, and each grid is known as sub-district Domain, all subregions form a set R={ r1,1... rI, j..rm*n, wherein rI, jRepresent be located at grid chart in the i-th row, The subregion of jth column;
2) stream of people flows into Inflow and outflow Outflow: definitionFor the stream of people track of moment t, then for moment t sub-district Domain rI, jInflow, Outflow can such as be given a definition respectively:
Wherein Tr:It isThe track at place;
3) weather, time and road information external information: are combined into a surface tensor;
The flowing in and out of the above-mentioned stream of people is combined into city stream of people's historical data tensor required for our, we by some The stream of people at moment regards the frame of picture as, regards whole stream of people's data as a video.
Step 2: training neural network
The city stream of people's historical data tensor training constructed using step 1 generates confrontation network.There are two parts for model: Generator and arbiter.For the sake of convenient, we respectively represent generator and arbiter using G and D, and their input then divides It is not historical data tensor matrix X1:nWith true stream of people's tensor matrix XN+1:n+k。G(X1:n) it is that G is given birth to by learning sample distribution The sample of production.If the input of D is distributed from truthful data, its output valve is 1 (it is true for representing judgement sample);Such as The input of fruit D derives from G (X1:n), then its output valve is 0 (representing judgement sample as vacation).Neural network model is totally adopted Confrontation network is generated with WGAN, if using XiTruthful data is represented,The false data generated is represented, gives N to true and false data Amount is lost in conjunction with mean square deviation, then the objective function of generation confrontation network may finally be described as following form:
Wherein λ is a parameter of balance confrontation loss and mean square deviation loss;
We use Seq2Seq model as generator G, in the training process for generating confrontation network, D are trained to maximize Its discrimination precision to data source;Meanwhile the discrimination precision of D is minimized by training G;By using RMSProp algorithm D and G are optimized respectively with back-propagation algorithm, finally when algorithmic statement, obtain optimal solution.
Step 3: prediction result is generated
By stream of people's tensor matrix { X at preceding t momentt| t=1 ... n } it inputs in trained neural network model, it is raw The prediction result of the city flow of the people of the region at k moment, i.e. city stream of people tensor matrix { X after the G that grows up to be a useful person is generatedt| t=n + 1 ... n+k }.
As a further preferred embodiment of the present invention, in above-mentioned steps two, the specific design side of arbiter D and generator G Method is as follows:
Generator contains a Seq2Seq structure, and Seq2Seq structure includes a compressor Encoder and a solution Depressor Decoder.The part Encoder contains double-layer structure, and one CNN layers of convolutional neural networks, one long short-term memory net LSTM layers of network.Firstly, training data is input to a convolutional neural networks layer (CNN) to learn the online stream of people's number of urban road According to space characteristics;Then, one long memory network in short-term will be used to capture the temporal correlation of traffic data sequence;Final warp The training for crossing CNN layers He LSTM layers exports the feature vector extracted.The feature that the part Decoder extracts Encoder layers Vector is as input, LSTM layers of memory network in short-term one long it comprises three-decker, one R-CNN layers and an outside EC-gate layers of information, EC-gate layers of effect is to combine the external information comprising weather, time and road information, by three layers Transformation, utilize Encoder layers extraction feature generate after k moment urban human flow data tensor.
Arbiter D contains double-layer structure, one CNN layers of convolutional neural networks, LSTM layers of memory network in short-term one long. The G false data generated and truthful data are put into D, are first inputted to the CNN layers of potential spatial character of learning data, it is then defeated Enter to LSTM layers of learning time characteristic, the true and false of data is judged using Wasserstein distance, by way of backpropagation Generator and arbiter are continued to optimize, until algorithmic statement, i.e. D can not divide the data of input to be true or false 's.
The utility model has the advantages that the present invention is directed to city stream of people forecasting problem, proposes and have been based on Seq2Seq generation confrontation network City stream of people's prediction technique.The invention adopts the above technical scheme compared with prior art, has following technical effect that
1) present invention generates confrontation network progress city stream of people prediction using based on Seq2Seq for the first time, by entire road network Urban human flow data is modeled as tensor matrix, realizes and predicts the other stream of people of City-level;
2) autocoder model is put into confrontation to generate in network, stream of people's data is regarded as image, stream of people's data sequence Regard video as, the space-time characteristic of data is effectively extracted using convolutional neural networks and long memory network in short-term, while also adding Enter and external information is considered, so that model is more accurate;
3) it solves the problems, such as that convergence present in the prior art is slow and fuzzy prediction, realizes and predicted from single point in time The promotion of more moment predictions.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is method flow diagram;
Fig. 2 is the specific design structure of neural network model;
Fig. 3 is to generate confrontation network structure.
Specific embodiment
With reference to the accompanying drawing, technical solution of the present invention is described in further detail.
The city stream of people's prediction technique overall procedure for generating confrontation network based on Seq2Seq is as shown in Figure 1.Number after modeling According to being input in a generation confrontation network model, the prediction to the city stream of people of following a period of time is generated.Existing research table It is bright, such as these external informations of weather, time and road information etc. for traffic flow data prediction play a significant role, because This input data not only includes for trained history stream of people's data, also includes external information data tensor.Specifically, this hair It is bright to construct following several groups of data as input:
Xt: stream of people's data at n moment before predicted time point.Xt={ xt| t=1 ... n }
EC-gate: the external information tensor being made of weather, time and POI road information
City stream of people's prediction technique disclosed by the invention that confrontation network is generated based on Seq2Seq, detailed process is as follows:
Step 1: data prediction
1) city: being divided into the grid chart of a m*n according to longitude and latitude by region division, and each grid is known as sub-district Domain, all subregions form a set R={ r1,1... rI, j..rm*n, wherein rI, jRepresent be located at grid chart in the i-th row, The subregion of jth column;
2) stream of people flows into Inflow and outflow Outflow: definitionFor the stream of people track of moment t, then for moment t sub-district Domain rI, jInflow, Outflow can such as be given a definition respectively:
Wherein Tr:It isThe track at place;
3) weather, time and road information external information: are combined into a surface tensor;
The above-mentioned stream of people flows into Inflow and outflow Outflow is combined into city stream of people's historical data tensor required for us As the input of whole network, while the stream of people sometime is regarded as the frame of picture by we, and whole stream of people's data are seen Work is a video.
Step 2: training neural network
The city stream of people's historical data tensor training constructed using step 1 generates confrontation network.There are two parts for model: Generator and arbiter.For the sake of convenient, we respectively represent generator and arbiter using G and D, and their input then divides It is not historical data tensor matrix X1:nWith true stream of people's tensor matrix XN+1:n+k。G(X1:n) it is that G is given birth to by learning sample distribution The sample of production.If the input of D is distributed from truthful data, its output valve is 1 (it is true for representing judgement sample);Such as The input of fruit D derives from G (X1:n), then its output valve is 0 (representing judgement sample as vacation).Neural network model is totally adopted Confrontation network is generated with WGAN, network structure is as shown in figure 3, if use XiTruthful data is represented,The false data generated is represented, Given N loses true and false data tensor in conjunction with mean square deviation, then generate confrontation network objective function may finally be described as it is as follows Form:
Wherein λ is a parameter of balance confrontation loss and mean square deviation loss.
Use Seq2Seq model as generator G, in the training process for generating confrontation network, training D is right to maximize its The discrimination precision of data source;Meanwhile the discrimination precision of D is minimized by training G;By using RMSProp algorithm and instead D and G are optimized respectively to propagation algorithm, finally when algorithmic statement, obtain optimal solution.
As shown in Fig. 2, the generator G generated in confrontation network contains a Seq2Seq structure, Seq2Seq structure packet Containing a compressor Encoder and a decompression machine Decoder.The part Encoder contains double-layer structure, a convolutional Neural It is NN layers of network C, LSTM layers of memory network in short-term one long.Firstly, training data is input to a convolutional neural networks layer (CNN) learn the space characteristics of the online stream of people's data of urban road;Then, one long memory network in short-term will be used to capture friendship The temporal correlation of logical data sequence;The training for eventually passing through CNN layers He LSTM layers exports the feature vector extracted. The feature vector that the part Decoder extracts Encoder layers is one long to remember in short-term it comprises three-decker as input Recall LSTM layers of network, one R-CNN layers and one EC-gate layers of external information, EC-gate layers of effect is combined comprising day Gas, the external information of time and road information, by three layers of transformation, when using k after the Encoder layers of feature extracted generation The urban human flow data tensor at quarter.Arbiter D contains double-layer structure, one CNN layers of convolutional neural networks, one long to remember in short-term Recall LSTM layers of network.The G false data generated and truthful data are put into D, it is potentially empty to be first inputted to CNN layers of learning data Between characteristic, be then input to LSTM layers of learning time characteristic, the true and false of data judged using Wasserstein distance, is passed through The mode combination RMSProp gradient descent algorithm of backpropagation continues to optimize generator and arbiter, until algorithmic statement, i.e. D It is true or false for can not dividing the data of input.
Step 3: prediction result is generated
By stream of people's tensor matrix { X at preceding t momentt| t=1 ... n } it inputs in trained neural network model, it is raw The prediction result of the city flow of the people of the region at k moment, i.e. city stream of people tensor matrix { X after the G that grows up to be a useful person is generatedt| t=n + 1 ... n+k }.
Embodiments of the present invention are explained in detail above in conjunction with attached drawing, but the present invention is not limited to above-mentioned implementations Mode within the knowledge of a person skilled in the art can also be without departing from the purpose of the present invention It makes a variety of changes.

Claims (2)

1. a kind of city stream of people's prediction technique for being generated confrontation network based on Seq2Seq, main feature are included the following steps:
(1) data observed are pre-processed: city being divided into the grid of a m*n based on longitude and latitude, uses rI, jIt indicates to be located at the The grid of i row, jth column, defines t moment rI, jThe inflow Inflow and outflow Outflow of the region stream of people:
WhereinIt isFlowing in and out for the stream of people is finally combined into a tensor by the track at place Input as whole network;
(2) problem definition: stream of people's tensor information of the preceding n time interval of given area R, while between predicting the following k time Every interior flow of the people;
(3) using the method for generating confrontation network, the overall thought for using WGAN, wherein Web vector graphic Seq2Seq model is generated, Whole network is known as SeqST-GAN, objective function is as follows:
Wherein λ is a parameter of balance confrontation loss and mean square deviation loss;
(4) generator network model G, arbiter network model D are defined: using Seq2Seq model buildings generator G, uses convolution The feature of neural network and the long compression of memory network in short-term image reuses long memory network in short-term, R-CNN and combines external The feature of information decompression compression, arbiter D carry out true and false differentiation using Wasserstein distance;Random initializtion generator G and The weight parameter of arbiter D network;
(5) conception of history measured data is updated to and generates false prediction data in G, sentenced with false data and the truthful data update of generation Other device D, it is excellent with arbiter progress to generator using the RMSProp algorithm of minimum batch processing, and by way of backpropagation Change, generator is enable to generate more life-like prediction data, arbiter can more accurately identify true and false data, reach pair Anti- purpose.If arbiter D does not restrain, i.e., it can differentiate the true and false of prediction data, then repeat the above process and be trained;
(6) if arbiter D restrains, that is, illustrate that arbiter cannot determine the true and false of prediction data, illustrate the prediction knot of generator Fruit extremely approaches with legitimate reading, then uses the generator network G of final optimization pass as final fallout predictor.
2. a kind of city stream of people's prediction technique for generating confrontation network based on Seq2Seq according to claim 1, utilizes volume Product neural network CNN and long memory network LSTM in short-term learns the space-time characterisation of urban human flow data, which is characterized in that when us When possessing sufficient stream of people's data, in conjunction with external informations such as weather, recreation and road informations, Seq2Seq mould is utilized Type is predicted the flow of the people in some area in next time interval using the method that confrontation generates network, solves fuzzy prediction The problem of, the accuracy rate of prediction is improved, is provided more for Urban Traffic Planning, Path selection and traffic risk profile etc. Added with the auxiliary tool of power, more convenient, more accurate method is provided.
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Application publication date: 20190618