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CN106447051A - System selective maintenance decision-making method for multitask stage - Google Patents

System selective maintenance decision-making method for multitask stage Download PDF

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CN106447051A
CN106447051A CN201610770604.3A CN201610770604A CN106447051A CN 106447051 A CN106447051 A CN 106447051A CN 201610770604 A CN201610770604 A CN 201610770604A CN 106447051 A CN106447051 A CN 106447051A
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刘宇
姜涛
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University of Electronic Science and Technology of China
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Abstract

The invention discloses a system selective maintenance decision-making method for a multitask stage, and the method comprises the steps: determining the state and service age of each part of a system at the beginning of each task; calculating the reliability of each part of the system in each task; calculating the normal operation probability of each part of the system in each task; calculating the normal operation probability of the system in each task; taking the task completing probability of each task of the system as a target function, taking a limited maintenance resource feasible set as a constraint condition, taking the maintenance behavior of each part of the system in each task as a decision-making variable, building a maintenance decision-making optimization model, and solving an optimal maintenance strategy. Through the comprehensive consideration of the task time uncertainty and failure time uncertainty of the multitask stage, a system decision maker can configure the limited maintenance resources to each maintenance interval more reasonably and effectively, so as to maximize the normal operation probability of the system in each task.

Description

System selective maintenance decision method for multitask stage
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the field of equipment maintenance optimization management, and particularly relates to a system selective maintenance decision method for a multitask stage.
Technical Field
Maintenance is a behavioral activity that aims to restore or improve the performance of a system, enabling it to meet the needs of subsequent tasks. In practical engineering, maintenance decision optimization problems often need to be researched under limited maintenance resources (such as limited maintenance period, limited maintenance expenditure, maintenance personnel and the like). The research of maintenance decision problems under limited maintenance resources is an important problem which is commonly concerned by academic and industrial circles in recent years, and the basic content of the research is to research how to reasonably and effectively optimize and configure the limited maintenance resources into each element forming the system according to the structure of the system, the working state and the performance evolution rule of the components, so that the whole system has the maximum reliability index.
Systems are generally made up of multiple components and perform a series of defined tasks, with the system being serviced during the interval between tasks. Furthermore, the task length of each task is often uncertain, such as: one military aircraft performs patrol tasks at 9 points every day, and the return time of the aircraft cannot be determined due to weather and other reasons. During the execution of a series of tasks, a component may fail during the execution of a certain task, in which case the failure time of the component is right-truncated data. The following situations often exist in engineering: the system is to execute N tasks, and the lengths of the tasks may not be equal and there is uncertainty. There are N-1 maintenance intervals during which the components of the system are maintained, and it is not reasonable to have all the maintenance resources (e.g., maintenance costs) in N-1 maintenance intervals.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide a selective maintenance decision method for maximizing the completion probability of a system in each task stage under the condition of multi-task stage and limited maintenance resources.
The technical scheme of the invention is as follows: a system selective maintenance decision-making method facing to a multitask stage specifically comprises the following steps:
step 1: defining the state and working age of each part of the system at the beginning of each task;
step 2: calculating the reliability of each part of the system in each task;
and step 3: calculating the normal working probability of each part of the system in each task;
and 4, step 4: calculating the normal working probability of the system in each task;
and 5: and establishing a maintenance decision optimization model and solving an optimal maintenance strategy by taking the task completion probability in each task of the system as an objective function, a limited feasible set of maintenance resources as a constraint condition and the maintenance behaviors of all parts of the system in each task as decision variables.
Further, the state of the component at the beginning of each task in step 1 can be represented as:
wherein k ═ {1,2, …, N } represents the kth task, and N represents the total number of tasks to be executed by the system;
accordingly, the state of the component at the end of each task may be represented as:
the way of repair of the part is non-sound repair, the non-sound repair model being a Kijima I model (working age model), the effective working age of part I at the start of the kth task being denoted xi,kThe time for which the component i normally operates in the k-th task is set to ui,k∈[0,tk],tkIs the task length of the kth task, if Xi,k1, the effective service life of component i at the end of the k-th task is:
yi,k=xi,k+ui,k(1)
after maintenance, the effective service life of part i at the start of the k +1 th task is obtained
xi,k+1=xi,k+bi,kui,k(2)
Wherein, bi,k∈[0,1]Representing a working age back factor, in particular if Yi,k=1(ui,k=tk) Then y isi,k=xi,k+ti,k(ii) a If component i fails on the kth task (i.e., ui,k<tk) And no maintenance is performed, the part remains in a failed state (X) for the k +1 th taski,k+10 and Yi,k+10), in which case xi,k+1And ui,k+1Are respectively set as xi,kAnd ui,k
B in the formula (2)i,kThe value of (a) is related to the maintenance behavior, the component maintenance distinguishes a plurality of different maintenance grades, the higher the maintenance grade is, the higher the consumed maintenance resources (maintenance cost) are correspondingly. The repair grade adopted during the kth repair interval for component i is denoted as li,k∈{1,2,…,NiIn which N isiRepresenting the highest repair level, the relationship between the repair cost and the repair level for component i during the kth repair interval may be expressed as:
wherein,is indicated at maintenance level of li,kThe cost of the repair/preventive maintenance that follows,indicating the fixed disassembly and assembly costs of the component i,indicating the cost of replacing component i, in particular li,k={1,2,NiMeans no service, minimum service and replacement, respectively, for component i during the kth service interval. .
B is further obtained from the relationship between the maintenance cost and the maintenance grade of the equation (3)i,kAnd maintenance costs. If component i fails before the end of the kth task, bi,kThe relationship to maintenance costs is expressed as:
wherein,represents the maximum repair cost of the restorative repair, mi,kIs a characteristic parameter.
If the component i is still working at the end of the k-th task, bi,kThe relationship to maintenance costs is expressed as:
wherein,representing the maximum maintenance cost for preventive maintenance. Characteristic parameter m in formulae (4) and (5)i,kThe average remaining life of a part i at the end of the k-th task, which may be derived from the valid work-age of the part i at the end of the k-th task, is defined as:
wherein r isi,k(t) is the reliability of component i, as will be further explained in step 2. The characteristic parameters of equation (5) are:
further, the calculation of the reliability of each part of the system in each task in step 2 is divided into the following cases.
If Xi,kIf 0, the reliability of component i in the k-th task is 0, xi,k+1And ui,k+1Are respectively set as xi,kAnd ui,kIf X isi,kIf 1, the reliability of component i in the k-th task is:
wherein λ isi(xi,k+ t) is the failure rate function for component i, t ∈ (0, t)k]The timing starts from the system executing the kth task. If Y isi,kWhen the k-th task ends, the reliability of the component i is ri,k(tk) Before and after maintenance the effective service life is yi,k=xi,k+ti,kAnd xi,k+1=xi,k+bi,kti,k. If Y isi,k=0,ui,k∈(0,tk) The right truncated data represents the effective service life before maintenance as yi,k=xi,k+ui,kIt can be expressed by a conditional probability density function as:
the cumulative density function for any valid work age T at the end of the kth task is:
wherein, Pr { yi,k<T represents the effective service life y before maintenancei,k<The probability of T is determined by the probability of T,is ui,kThe cumulative density function of (2). Thus, y can be obtainedi,kThe probability density function of (a) is:
in the kth maintenance interval, non-intact maintenance is performed on component i, if bi,k∈ (0,1), the effective service life of part i at the start of the k +1 th task is xi,k+1=xi,k+bi,kui,k。xi,k+1The cumulative density function of (a) is expressed as:
thus, x can be obtainedi,k+1The probability density function of (a) is:
in particular, if bi,k1, then component i remains in the failed state, xi,k+1And ui,k+1Are respectively set as xi,kAnd ui,k. If b isi,kWhen 0, the component i is repaired to the working state, xi,k+1=xi,kAnd isFurthermore, xi,1Probability density function ofKnown as xi,1The upper and lower limits of the value are respectivelyAndtaking into account the effective working life(fk1,2, …, k), the component i accumulates a reliability at the end of the kth task as:
further, the calculation of the probability that each component of the system works normally in each task in step 3 needs to consider a plurality of state paths of the component. Each time a task ends, component i may be in a working or failure state, thus there is 2 from task 1 to task kkDifferent paths are followed. Therein, there are 2k-1The strip path may result in Yi,k1, and then the component i is found at the kth task endpThe working probability under a path is:
wherein k isp=1,2,…,2k-1. Therefore, the cumulative operating probability of component i at the end of the kth task is:
further, the probability that the system normally works in each task in step 4 can be obtained from the accumulated working probability of the system structure and the components. The system state may be derived from the state of the component:
Ys,k=φ(Y1,k,Y2,k,…,YM,k) (17)
where φ (-) is the structural equation for the system and M is the total number of components that make up the system.
In particular, for any n number of components i in series1,i2,…,inThe combined relationship is expressed as:
where j ═ is (1,2, …, n).
For any n parallel components i1,i2,…,inThe combined relationship is expressed as:
where j ═ is (1,2, …, n).
The probability of the system working properly is defined as:
Rs,k=Pr{Ys,k=1} (20)
considering the uncertainty of the task length, the obtained system accumulated working probability is as follows:
wherein f isk(tk) Is a probability density function of the task length of the k-th task,andare respectively tkUpper and lower limits of the values.
Further, the maintenance optimization model in step 5 is:
wherein N is the total number of tasks required to be executed by the system, C0Representing a total limited maintenance cost. In particular, if a completely new system performs the task, the reliability of the 1 st task is not affected by the maintenance, and the objective function in equation (22) is changed to
The invention has the beneficial effects that: by comprehensively considering the uncertainty of task time and the uncertainty of failure time in the multitask stage, the system decision maker can more reasonably and effectively optimize and configure limited maintenance resources in each maintenance interval so as to maximize the probability of normal work of the system in each task.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a schematic flow chart of a system selective maintenance decision method for a multitasking stage according to the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a block diagram of the reliability of a coal delivery system to which an embodiment of the present invention is directed.
Detailed Description
The invention will be further described with reference to the accompanying drawings and specific embodiments, which are illustrated herein as a coal delivery system.
The coal delivery system is used to power a combustion chamber. The system has 5 subsystems, and 14 components are connected in series and parallel. The parts 1-3 constitute a feeder 1 for feeding coal to the conveyor 1, the parts 4-5 constitute the conveyor 1 for feeding coal to the stacker-reclaimer, the parts 6-8 constitute the stacker-reclaimer for feeding coal to the combustion furnace, the parts 9-10 constitute a feeder 2 for feeding coal to the conveyor 2, and the parts 11-14 constitute the conveyor 2 for feeding coal to the combustion chamber. All components are treated as one unit, and the failure time follows a Weibull distribution. Parameters of the weibull distribution of the components and the maintenance cost ($1000) are shown in table 1, respectively.
TABLE 1
All parts of the system execute 3 tasks in a brand new state, and the task length of each task is uniformly distributed Is the task length average of the kth task. The task lengths of the three tasks are equally divided intoEach part is provided withA feasible maintenance class,/i,k1 andindicating respectively two maintenance classes, from maintenance class l, no maintenance and replacementi,k2 toMaintenance costs are divided equally intoAnd (4) grading.
Given a total repair cost budget of C0Here, the maintenance model can be solved by various metaheuristic algorithms, such as: genetic algorithms, particle swarm algorithms, and the like. The results of the one-time optimization of the 3 tasks and the division of the maintenance costs into two equal optimizations are compared separately, as shown in table 2.
TABLE 2
*Optimal objective function value
As can be seen from table 2, the optimal objective function value obtained by the method is higher than the result of the optimization of dividing the maintenance cost into two equal parts. In conclusion, the invention not only comprehensively considers the uncertainty of the task time and the uncertainty of the failure time, but also performs combined optimization on the maintenance decisions of a plurality of maintenance intervals, and a system decision maker can more reasonably and effectively optimize and configure limited maintenance resources into each maintenance interval so as to maximize the completion probability of the system in each task.
It will be appreciated by those of ordinary skill in the art that the embodiments described herein are intended to assist the reader in understanding the principles of the invention and are to be construed as being without limitation to such specifically recited embodiments and examples. Those skilled in the art can make various other specific changes and combinations based on the teachings of the present invention without departing from the spirit of the invention, and these changes and combinations are within the scope of the invention.

Claims (8)

1. A system selective maintenance decision-making method facing to a multitask stage specifically comprises the following steps:
step 1: defining the state and working age of each part of the system at the beginning of each task;
step 2: calculating the reliability of each part of the system in each task;
and step 3: calculating the normal working probability of each part of the system in each task;
and 4, step 4: calculating the normal working probability of the system in each task;
and 5: and establishing a maintenance decision optimization model and solving an optimal maintenance strategy by taking the task completion probability in each task of the system as an objective function, a limited feasible set of maintenance resources as a constraint condition and the maintenance behaviors of all parts of the system in each task as decision variables.
2. The multitask stage oriented system selective maintenance decision method according to claim 1, wherein the state of the component at the beginning of each task in the step 1 can be expressed as:
wherein k ═ {1,2, …, N } represents the kth task, and N represents the total number of tasks to be executed by the system;
the state of the component at the end of each task may be represented as:
the way of repairing the part is an imperfect repair, the imperfect repair model is a Kijima I model, the effective working age of part I at the start of the kth task is denoted xi,kThe time for which the component i normally operates in the k-th task is set to ui,k∈[0,tk],tkIs the task length of the kth task, if Xi,k1, the effective service life of component i at the end of the k-th task is:
yi,k=xi,k+ui,k(1)
after repair, the effective service life at the start of the k +1 th task of part i is obtained as:
xi,k+1=xi,k+bi,kui,k(2)
wherein, bi,k∈[0,1]Represents a service age backoff factor;
if Y isi,k=1(ui,k=tk) Then y isi,k=xi,k+ti,k(ii) a If component iFailing in the kth task (i.e., u)i,k<tk) And no maintenance is performed, the part remains in a failed state (X) for the k +1 th taski,k+10 and Yi,k+10), in which case xi,k+1And ui,k+1Are respectively set as xi,kAnd ui,k
The repair grade adopted during the kth repair interval for component i is denoted as li,k∈{1,2,…,NiIn which N isiRepresenting the highest repair level, the relationship between the repair cost and the repair level for component i during the kth repair interval may be expressed as:
C i , k ( l i , k ) = 0 l i , k = 1 c i , k , l i , k + c i 0 l i , k &Element; { 2 , ... , N i - 1 } c i r p l i , k = N i - - - ( 3 )
wherein,is indicated at maintenance level of li,kThe cost of the repair/preventive maintenance that follows,indicating the fixed disassembly and assembly costs of the component i,indicating the cost of replacing component i, in particular li,k={1,2,NiMeans no service, minimum service and replacement, respectively, for component i during the kth service interval.
B is obtained from the relationship between the maintenance cost and the maintenance grade of the equation (3)i,kIn relation to maintenance costs, if the component i fails before the end of the kth task, bi,kThe relationship to maintenance costs is expressed as:
wherein,represents the maximum repair cost of the restorative repair, mi,kIs a characteristic parameter.
If the component i is still working at the end of the k-th task, bi,kThe relationship to maintenance costs is expressed as:
wherein,represents a maximum maintenance cost for preventive maintenance;
the average remaining life of component i at the end of the kth task is defined as:
L i , k = &Integral; u i , k &infin; r i , k ( t ) d t r i , k ( u i , k ) - - - ( 6 )
wherein r isi,k(t) is the reliability of the component i, and the characteristic parameters of equation (5) are:
m i , k = L i , k y i , k = &Integral; u i , k &infin; r i , k ( t ) d t y i , k r i , k ( u i , k ) - - - ( 7 )
3. the method for selective maintenance decision-making of a system facing a multitasking stage according to claim 2, characterized in that the reliability of each part of the system in each task in the step 2 is calculated as follows:
if Xi,kIf 0, the reliability of component i in the k-th task is 0, xi,k+1And ui,k+1Are respectively set as xi,kAnd ui,kIf X isi,kIf 1, the reliability of component i in the k-th task is:
r i , k ( t ) = exp &lsqb; - &Integral; 0 t &lambda; i ( x i , k + s ) d s &rsqb; - - - ( 8 )
wherein λ isi(xi,k+ t) is the failure rate function for component i, t ∈ (0, t)k]The timing starts from the system executing the kth task. If Y isi,kWhen the k-th task ends, the reliability of the component i is ri,k(tk) Before and after maintenance the effective service life is yi,k=xi,k+ti,kAnd xi,k+1=xi,k+bi,kti,k. If Y isi,k=0,ui,k∈(0,tk) The right truncated data represents the effective service life before maintenance as yi,k=xi,k+ui,kIt can be expressed by a conditional probability density function as:
f u i , k ( u i , k ) = - dr i , k ( u i , k ) / du i , k r i , k ( t k ) = r i , k ( u i , k ) &lambda; i ( y i , k ) r i , k ( t k ) - - - ( 9 )
the cumulative density function for any valid work age T at the end of the kth task is:
F y i , k ( T ) = Pr { y i , k < T } = Pr { y i , k < T - x i , k } = F u i , k ( T - x i , k ) - - - ( 10 )
wherein, Pr { yi,k<T represents the effective service life y before maintenancei,k<The probability of T is determined by the probability of T,is ui,kTo obtain yi,kThe probability density function of (a) is:
f y i , k ( y i , k ) = dF y i , k ( y i , k ) / dy i , k = dF u i , k ( y i , k - x i , k ) / dy i , k = f u i , k ( u i , k ) - - - ( 11 )
in the kth maintenance interval, non-intact maintenance is performed on component i, if bi,k∈ (0,1), the effective service life of part i at the start of the k +1 th task is xi,k+1=xi,k+bi,kui,k
xi,k+1The cumulative density function of (a) is expressed as:
F x i , k + 1 ( T ) = Pr { x i , k + 1 < T } = Pr { u i , k < ( T - x i , k ) / b i , k } = F u i , k ( ( T - x i , k ) / b i , k ) - - - ( 12 )
to obtain xi,k+1The probability density function of (a) is:
f x i , k + 1 ( x i , k + 1 ) = dF x i , k + 1 ( x i , k + 1 ) / dx i , k + 1 = dF u i , k ( u i , k ) / d ( x i , k + b i , k u i , k ) = f u i , k ( u i , k ) b i , k - - - ( 13 )
if b isi,k1, then component i remains in the failed state, xi,k+1And ui,k+1Are respectively set as xi,kAnd ui,k
If b isi,kWhen 0, the component i is repaired to the working state, xi,k+1=xi,kAnd is
Furthermore, xi,1Probability density function ofKnown as xi,1The upper and lower limits of the value are respectivelyAndtaking into account the effective working lifeThe cumulative reliability of component i at the end of the kth task is:
R i , k ( t k ) = &Integral; x i , 0 - x i , 0 + &Integral; x i , 1 x i , 1 + b i , 1 u i , 1 ... &Integral; x i , k - 1 x i , k - 1 + b i , k - 1 u i , k - 1 r i , k ( t k ) f i , k ( t k ) ... f i , 2 ( x i , 2 ) f i , 1 ( x i , 1 ) dx i , k ... dx i , 2 dx i , 1 - - - ( 14 )
4. the multitask stage oriented system selective maintenance decision method according to claim 3, wherein the calculation of the probability that each component of the system will work properly in each task in step 3 requires consideration of multiple state paths of the component. Each time a task ends, component i may be in a working or failure state, thus there is 2 from task 1 to task kkA different path, wherein there is 2k-1The strip path may result in Yi,k1, and then the component i is found at the kth task endpThe working probability under a path is:
R i , k k p = &Pi; j = 1 k &lsqb; Y i , j R i , j ( t j ) + ( 1 - Y i , j ) ( 1 - R i , j ( t j ) ) &rsqb; - - - ( 15 )
wherein k isp=1,2,…,2k-1
The cumulative working probability of component i at the end of the kth task is:
R i , k C = &Sigma; k p = 1 2 k - 1 R i , k k p - - - ( 16 )
5. the multitask stage oriented system selective maintenance decision method according to claim 4, wherein the probability of the system working normally in each task in the step 4 can be obtained from the accumulated working probability of the system structure and the components. The system state may be derived from the state of the component:
Ys,k=φ(Y1,k,Y2,k,…,YM,k) (17)
where φ (-) is the structural equation for the system and M is the total number of components that make up the system.
6. The multitask stage oriented system selective maintenance decision method according to claim 5, wherein for any n number of cascaded components { i } i1,i2,…,inThe combined relationship is expressed as:
&phi; ( Y i 1 , k , Y i 2 , k , ... , Y i n , k ) = 1 &ForAll; Y i j , k = 1 0 &Exists; Y i j , k = 0 - - - ( 18 )
where j is (1,2, …, n),
for any n parallel components i1,i2,…,inThe combined relationship is expressed as:
&phi; ( Y i 1 , k , Y i 2 , k , ... , Y i n , k ) = 1 &Exists; Y i j , k = 1 0 &ForAll; Y i j , k = 0 - - - ( 19 )
the probability of the system working properly is defined as:
Rs,k=Pr{Ys,k=1} (20)
the obtained system accumulated working probability is:
R s , k C = &Integral; &tau; k - &tau; k + ... &Integral; &tau; 2 - &tau; 2 + &Integral; &tau; 1 - &tau; 1 + R s , k f 1 ( t 1 ) f 2 ( t 2 ) ... f k ( t k ) dt 1 dt 2 ... dt k - - - ( 21 )
wherein f isk(tk) Is a probability density function of the task length of the k-th task,andare respectively tkUpper and lower limits of the values.
7. The multitask stage oriented system selective maintenance decision method according to claim 5 or 6, characterized in that the maintenance optimization model in the step 5 is:
max min { R s , 1 C , R s , 2 C , R s , 3 C , ... , R s , N C } s . t . &Sigma; k = 1 N &Sigma; i = 1 M c i , k , l i , k &le; C 0 c i , k , l i , k &le; c i r p - c i , k , l i , k &le; 0 i = 1 , 2 , ... , M ; k = 1 , 2 , ... , N - - - ( 22 )
wherein N is the total number of tasks required to be executed by the system, C0Representing a total limited maintenance cost.
8. The method as claimed in claim 7, wherein if a new system performs the task, the reliability of the 1 st task is not affected by the maintenance, and the objective function in equation (22) is recorded
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CN108596371A (en) * 2018-04-03 2018-09-28 广西大学 A kind of train critical component chance preventative maintenance Optimized model based on reliability
CN108764495A (en) * 2018-05-15 2018-11-06 中山职业技术学院 A kind of decision-making technique and its computer readable storage medium of vehicle maintenance scheme
CN109002656B (en) * 2018-08-29 2022-06-24 重庆交通大学 Multi-stage task system redundancy configuration optimization method
CN109002656A (en) * 2018-08-29 2018-12-14 重庆交通大学 Phased mission systems redundant configuration optimization method
CN109255172A (en) * 2018-08-29 2019-01-22 重庆交通大学 Multiphase system fail-safe analysis road collection combined method based on Modelling of Cumulative Damage
CN109255172B (en) * 2018-08-29 2022-08-23 重庆交通大学 Multi-stage system reliability analysis way set combination method based on accumulated damage model
CN109636021B (en) * 2018-12-03 2022-07-15 北京航空航天大学 Task reliability oriented manufacturing system selective maintenance decision method
CN109636021A (en) * 2018-12-03 2019-04-16 北京航空航天大学 A kind of manufacture system selectivity maintenance measures method of mission reliability guiding
CN110147893A (en) * 2019-05-16 2019-08-20 中国人民解放军海军工程大学 A kind of string part is cannibalized the optimization method of the preventative maintenance spare part under mode
CN110991924A (en) * 2019-12-13 2020-04-10 电子科技大学 Structural equation model-based high-level thesis publication number influence factor evaluation method
CN113139676A (en) * 2021-03-24 2021-07-20 温州大学 Complex system selective maintenance decision method and device based on resource constraint
CN116091046A (en) * 2023-04-06 2023-05-09 北京理工大学 Equipment group multi-wave task maintenance planning method based on phased heuristic algorithm
CN118211954A (en) * 2024-02-04 2024-06-18 广东工业大学 Selective maintenance method for new energy battery modularized assembly line

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