CN105738974B - The forecasting procedure and system of air heavily contaminated weather - Google Patents
The forecasting procedure and system of air heavily contaminated weather Download PDFInfo
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- CN105738974B CN105738974B CN201610081979.9A CN201610081979A CN105738974B CN 105738974 B CN105738974 B CN 105738974B CN 201610081979 A CN201610081979 A CN 201610081979A CN 105738974 B CN105738974 B CN 105738974B
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- G01W1/06—Instruments for indicating weather conditions by measuring two or more variables, e.g. humidity, pressure, temperature, cloud cover or wind speed giving a combined indication of weather conditions
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Abstract
A kind of forecasting procedure of air heavily contaminated weather, including：Collect, obtain the history meteorological data for the long-term sequence for waiting for forecast area；Several meteorologic parameters are chosen as impact factor；By way of fitting, air heavily contaminated prognostic equation is established using several meteorologic parameters of selection as the factor, the prediction numerical value of the Meteorological Models WRF meteorologic parameters forecast is substituted into the prognostic equation, following heavily contaminated weather is predicted by solving equation.And a kind of forecast system of air heavily contaminated weather.The heavy air pollution process that the present invention combines weather typing and meteorological element discriminant equation that future may occur for the first time differentiates；The representative meteorological factor quantity that the discriminant equation of foundation is chosen is few, and heavily contaminated case differentiates that effect is good；It is to heavily contaminated statistical fluctuation technology, effective supplement of Numerical Forecast Technology, method is simple and practicable, and input is less, and the pollution prewarning that can effectively attach most importance to provides technical support；Establish more simple and practical operation interface.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to weather forecast field, relates more specifically to a kind of forecasting procedure of air heavily contaminated weather and be
System.
Background technology
Since, with the expansion of China's expanding economy and production capacity, the north has been caused to start large-scale haze occur in recent years
Equal heavily contaminateds weather, has seriously affected normal production and living, has compromised the physical and mental health of numerous people.For this purpose, some are regional
Start to carry out heavily contaminated weather red early warning mechanism, there is expected shut-down of suspending classes, Yi Jijiao by issuing red early warning information
It is logical to restrict driving, carry out the further discharge of management and control pollution sources, pupil and child is avoided to be exposed to the open air of heavily contaminated.
But current heavily contaminated prediction mechanics are mainly still manually forecast, there are larger errors, once start red
Color early warning, and actually weather conditions do not deteriorate, and will bring prodigious damage to the economy in China and the life of numerous people
It loses.In addition, China since 2013 just it is formal monitor and externally issue PM2.5 numerical value made very due to the pervious data of shortage
Mostly existing prediction technique can not also be carried out in default of data.How the air heavily contaminated weather after the accurate forecast regular period
Generation, development be a problem in the urgent need to address at present.
Invention content
In view of this, the purpose of the present invention is to provide a kind of forecasting procedures and system of air heavily contaminated weather.
To achieve the goals above, as one aspect of the present invention, the present invention provides a kind of air heavily contaminated weather
Forecasting procedure, include the following steps：
Step S1：It collects, obtain the history meteorological data for waiting for forecast area；
Step S2：Several meteorologic parameters are chosen as impact factor；
Step S3：By way of fitting, the forecast of air heavily contaminated is established using several meteorologic parameters of selection as the factor
Equation substitutes into the predicted value of the meteorologic parameter and/or measured value in the prognostic equation, by seeking equation come to future
Polluting weather of whether attaching most importance to is predicted.
Preferably, several impact factors chosen in step s 2 be mean wind speed, 24 hours transformations, 850 with
Fine particle mean value concentration is controlled in 1000hP temperature differences meteorological variables and state's yesterday.
Preferably, the prognostic equation being fitted in step s3 is：
Wherein, the average daily concentration of prediction that c is the PM2.5 of that day to be predicted, a0For constant, a1, a2, a3, a4 are back
Return coefficient；X1, x2, x3 be respectively that day to be predicted 24 hourly average wind speed, 24 hours transformations, 08 when 850 with
The predicted value of 1000hPa temperature differences, x4 are the measured value or predicted value of state's control yesterday fine particle mean value concentration.
Preferably, the described that day to be predicted includes today, tomorrow and the day after tomorrow, 24 hours futures, 48 are corresponded to respectively
In hour and 72 hours.
Preferably, the numerical value of x1, x2, x3 are selected from the Simulation prediction of WRF patterns as a result, WRF patterns are initial and boundary provides
Material analyzes data GFS day by day again for NCAR's and NCEP, and resolution ratio is 1 ° × 1 °, and temporal resolution is 6h (00：00、06：00、
12：00、18：00)；Landform and underlying surface input data are respectively from USGS 30s whole world landform and MODIS underlying surfaces classification money
Material.For x4, when predicting the heavily contaminated weather condition of today, the measured value of state's control yesterday fine particle mean value concentration is selected；
When predicting tomorrow or posteriori heavily contaminated weather condition, selects and control fine particle mean value relative to tomorrow or posteriori state's yesterday
The predicted value of concentration.
Preferably, being to prognostic equation in 2013 of Beijing City fitting：C=103.23-24.974x1-
3.8127x2+1.5025x3+0.53945x4。
As another aspect of the present invention, the present invention also provides a kind of forecast system of air heavily contaminated weather, institutes
The forecasting procedure that forecast system executes air heavily contaminated weather as described above based on matlab softwares is stated, to certain following a period of time
Between heavily contaminated weather predicted.
Based on the above-mentioned technical proposal it is found that the forecasting procedure and system of the present invention have following advantageous effect：
(1) heavy air pollution process for combining weather typing and meteorological element discriminant equation that future may occur for the first time is sentenced
Not；This method has carried out parting to the weather system for influencing Beijing's heavily contaminated for the first time, and heavily contaminated is established in conjunction with artificial forecast
Statistic discriminance equation is a kind of heavily contaminated forecasting technique；
(2) the representative meteorological factor quantity that the discriminant equation established is chosen is few, and heavily contaminated case differentiates that effect is good；
(3) method of the invention is to heavily contaminated statistical fluctuation technology, effective supplement of Numerical Forecast Technology, and method is simple
It is easy, and input is less, the pollution prewarning that can effectively attach most importance to provides technical support, and Applied D emonstration popularization facilitates feasible；
(4) it is based on matlab for the first time to combine pollutant with meteorological measured data library, WRF forecast datas library, establish
The method operation interface of relatively simple practicality；This method will be to following Beijing's air heavily contaminated subregion dynamic statistics forecast
Preferable thinking is provided.
Description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is Beijing area statistic discriminance equation forecast in 2013 and actual measurement comparison diagram；
Fig. 2 is the heavily contaminated statistical fluctuation in 58 days of Beijing area in 2013 and actual measurement comparison diagram；
Fig. 3 is the flow chart of the forecasting procedure of the present invention；
Fig. 4 (a), 4 (b) are the forecasting procedure of the present invention respectively to during the red early warning of in December, 2015 Beijing 2 times
PM2.5 concentration carries out the result curve figure of verification assessment；
Fig. 5 is the software operation interface of the forecast system of the present invention.
Specific implementation mode
To make the objectives, technical solutions, and advantages of the present invention clearer, below in conjunction with specific embodiment, and reference
Attached drawing, the present invention is described in further detail.
As shown in figure 3, the invention discloses a kind of forecasting procedure of air heavily contaminated weather, include the following steps：
Step S1：It collects, obtain the history meteorological data for waiting for forecast area；It, can be with people wherein in order to improve fitting precision
Work identifies the weather background field that heavily contaminated may occur, and pay close attention to some to occur heavily contaminated weather have larger impact
Meteorologic parameter.In addition, above-mentioned history meteorological data is preferably the history meteorological data of long-term sequence, such as 6 months or more,
Even 12 months, the history meteorological datas of the longer periods such as 2 years.
Step S2：Several meteorologic parameters are chosen as impact factor, the standard of selection can be based on auto-sequencing, such as from
Each meteorologic parameter of history is angularly selected with PM2.5 concentration dependences power.
Step S3：By way of fitting, the forecast of air heavily contaminated is established using several meteorologic parameters of selection as the factor
Equation substitutes into the Meteorological Models WRF meteorologic parameters forecast in the prognostic equation, by solving equation come to the following certain time
Heavily contaminated weather is predicted.
In above-mentioned steps S2, alternative meteorologic parameter is very more, for example, temperature, humidity, wind speed, wind direction, air pressure,
High-pressure trough distribution, etc..Preferably, the impact factor chosen in step s 2 be, for example, mean wind speed, 24 hours transformations,
850 control fine particle mean value concentration with 1000hP temperature differences meteorological variables and state's yesterday.By repetition test, this is selected
Four variables can be best approximate simulation pollutant situation of change, whether prediction future sometime attach most importance to polluting weather.
Preferably, the prognostic equation being fitted in step s3 is, for example,：
Wherein, c is the prediction concentrations of the PM2.5 of that day to be predicted, a0For constant, a1, a2, a3, a4 are to return system
Number；X1, x2, x3 indicate 850 and 1000hPa when the 24 hourly average wind speed of that day to be predicted, 24 hours transformations, 08 respectively
The predicted value of temperature difference, x4 indicate the measured value or predicted value of state's control yesterday fine particle mean value concentration.
For the prognostic equation, it can be used for forecasting the air of today, tomorrow and the day after tomorrow (i.e. future for 24 hours, in 48h, 72h)
Pollution condition.
Preferably, the numerical value of above-mentioned x1, x2, x3 are selected from the Simulation prediction of WRF patterns as a result, WRF patterns are initial and side
Boundary's data analyzes data GFS day by day again for NCAR's and NCEP, and resolution ratio is 1 ° × 1 °, and temporal resolution is 6h (00：00、06：
00、12：00、18：00)；Landform and underlying surface input data are classified respectively from USGS 30s whole world landform and MODIS underlying surfaces
Data.For x4, when predicting heavily contaminated weather condition (the c values) of today, the measured value of state's control yesterday mean value is directly selected；When
When predicting heavily contaminated weather condition (the c values) of tomorrow, since mean value (x4) is controlled still in the state of the yesterday (i.e. today) relative to tomorrow
It does not come out, the c values of above-mentioned prognostic equation prediction today can be first passed through, using the c values as " the yesterday state relative to tomorrow
The predicted value of control mean value " (x4) uses.Similarly, for predicting posteriori heavily contaminated weather condition (c values), then first pre- successively
Today, tomorrow and posteriori c values are surveyed, to the forecast for the polluting weather that obtains whether attaching most importance to the day after tomorrow.
By studying intensively, for Beijing City, the prognostic equation of fitting in 2013 is：C=103.23-
24.974x1-3.8127x2+1.5025x3+0.53945x4.The prognostic equation can accurately be fitted pollutant in 2013
Distributed data.And for 2014 and 2015,2014~2015 years history fine particles can be added with meteorological measuring
Enter into database, update and establish new statistic discriminance equation, to obtain more accurate result based on more historical datas.
Dynamic authentication assessment is carried out using the new prognostic equation pair red early warning of Beijing 2 times in 2015, predicted value has very with measured value
Good time trend, the prognostic equation can preferably forecast heavy air pollution process.
The invention also discloses a kind of forecast system of air heavily contaminated weather, which is based on matlab and executes such as
The forecasting procedure of the upper air heavily contaminated weather, to predict the heavily contaminated weather of the following certain time.The pre- syndicate
System is for the first time combined pollutant with meteorological measured data library, WRF forecast datas library based on matlab, is established relatively simple
Practical method operation interface.
The forecast system includes pollutant and meteorological measured data library, WRF forecast datas library and the user based on MATLAB
Operating platform.System is divided into two layers using layering, distributed mechanisms design, whole system：Data storage layer and system operations layer.
Data storage layer mainly stores the result of the data and system output that are manually entered.As shown in figure 5, the data packet being manually entered
Fine particle measured concentration yesterday and forecast date and same day meteorological factor predicted value are included, the result of system output is mainly concentration
Predicted value.System operations layer is to read initial input data and carry out related operation and show the program of result.Forecast system is whole
There is body dynamic characteristic, newborn pollution sample and meteorological sample can be added to system data concentration in time, and to forecast
System is adjusted, and modular system is enable to reflect the pollution situation in variation.Operation interface and exhibition method are simpler at present
It is single, can further it improve in the near future.Compared with Numerical Prediction System, statistical fluctuation system features in convenient need not be compared with
The computing hardware equipment of profession, and it is of less demanding to the program capability of operation maintenance personnel, it is simple and convenient, it is that prefecture-level city and district are carried out
The ideal application tool of prediction of air quality work.
Technical solution in order to better illustrate the present invention, below by taking Beijing area as an example, further to the present invention program
It is described.But it should be clear that the solution of the present invention is not limited in Beijing area, equally have for other areas
Effect.
Traditional Atmosphere of Beijing heavily contaminated can be divided into quiet steady accumulation type, sand and dust type, compound and 4 types of special type,
Then the weather situation based on heavily contaminated carries out sort research to the present invention.The ground and weather pattern at high for analyzing heavily contaminated day are found
There are preferable correspondence, Beijing's heavily contaminated day in surface air pressure field and 850hPa temperature advections, 500hPa situations field with pollution
Day, high-altitude situation was mostly zonal circulation control (straight circulation, shallow slot, weak northwest air-flow or ridge etc.), and 850hPa is mostly warm ridge control
System, ground many places are in weak pressure gradient field or low pressure zone.Low-to-medium altitude wind field is based on south to the west or south wind by east, ground day
Equal relative humidity is larger, and mean wind speed continues smaller.It is flat according to surface air pressure field situation, 500hPa situations field and 850hPa changes in temperature
Situation is flowed, will influence Pekinese's surface synoptic situations analytic induction is following 3 kinds of weather patterns：High pressure class (high pressure rear portion, high pressure
Bottom, weak high pressure)；Low pressure class (closed low, low pressure bottom rear portion, the slot that falls)；Pressure class (having a meeting, an audience, etc. well under one's control, saddle type field).This 3 class weather
Pollution situation is all unfavorable diffused, and weather situation is relatively stablized, and time of occurrence has opposite continuity.Following table has counted north in 2013
The number that surface Weather type occurs during capital heavily contaminated day, it can be seen that in 58 heavily contaminated days in 2013, cause heavily contaminated
Day surface pressure situation field high pressure class, low pressure class, pressure class three types respectively account for 38%, 41%, 21%, various surface Weather shapes
Pressed with high pressure rear portion (14 days), in gesture (12 days), low pressure bottom, based on rear portion (12 days).
1 Beijing of the table weather pattern of heavily contaminated day in 2013 statistics
Note：Its mesohigh rear portion weather pattern includes low pressure front weather pattern
Forecast is according to present inference future, so in statistical method, the selection of predictor is all to take starting
The meteorologic parameter of moment or last time.But there are the Meteorological Conditions that some predictands go out current moment with it most close.Have
After dynamic forecasting, tri- air pressure in each height in various regions, temperature, humidity and u, v, w wind speed components are obtained from dynamic forecasting
Predicted value, and from these fundamental physical quantities can also calculate other many physical quantitys (such as temperature advection, vorticity advection, steam are defeated
Send flux, stability index etc.).
Prediction is carried out using dynamic statistics model, dynamic statistics model hypothesis level of pollution is mainly by meteorological condition control
System, pollution sources vary less；Choose that stability is good, representative strong, good with correlation is polluted meteorological factor, while to similar
Meteorological factor is combined to reduce the number of the factor.
Following table shows that Beijing ground pollution object in 2013 is classified other statistical nature with weather data, it can be seen that no
With under air quality rank, with the variation of fine particle concentration, each meteorological element has apparent difference characteristic, especially flat
850hPa and 1000hPa temperature differences, 850hPa dew-point temperatures when equal wind speed, 24 hours transformations, 08.
2 2013 years Beijing ground pollution objects of table are classified other statistical nature with weather data
3 Beijing (08 of table：00) observatory weather data is classified other statistical nature
It is good, representative strong, good with pollution correlation to choose stability with reference to the achievement in research of other scholars by screening
Meteorological factor, including ground and the aerological factor are combined each meteorological factor；Finally use mean wind speed, 24 small
When transformation, 850 with discriminant criterion of the 1000hP temperature differences meteorological variables as heavily contaminated day, both considered the energy of horizontal proliferation
Power shows yet the important function that vertical proliferation differentiates heavily contaminated, while reducing meteorological factor and to improve it dense with pollutant
The correlation of degree.When in view of carrying out prediction of air quality fine particle concentration can only usage history data, so newly-increased variable
Yesterday, fine particle mean value concentration was controlled in state.
Beijing's heavily contaminated day discriminant criterion is established using the physical quantity of screening, the data through Select to use have put down for 24 hours
850 control fine particle mean value concentration with 1000hPa temperature differences, state's yesterday when equal wind speed, 24 hours transformations, 08, are set to
X1, x2, x3, x4 embody weather system differentiation, cumulative concentration and other meteorological element counterweight pollution effects.Based on matlab
Thus it is as follows to obtain prognostic equation for multi-parameter linear fit：
Wherein, c is prediction concentrations, a0For constant, a1, a2, a3, a4 are regression coefficients.
It is as follows that statistical fluctuation equation was established to 2013：Y (prediction PM2.5 mean concentrations)=103.23-24.974x1-
3.8127x2+1.5025x3+0.53945x4, wherein Y is the mean concentration for predicting PM2.5, is defined as c.Statistics is pre-
Report equation to all year air Quality Forecasting such as Fig. 1, it can be seen that predicted value has consistent variation tendency compared with measured value.
The differentiation compliance test result of heavily contaminated case
The weather situation of following several days of analysis, if meeting the feature of heavily contaminated weather typing, with the differentiation side established
Cheng Jinhang forecast differentiates, further to analyze the value of forecasting of established 58 days heavily contaminateds of prognostic equation pair, with scatter plot and system
Meter parameter is assessed to verify, using statistical parameter standardization average deviation (NMB) and standardization mean error (NME), root mean square
Error (RMSE) assesses the degree of agreement of analog result and measured value, as can be seen that most scatterplot concentrates on Y=2x from Fig. 2
Between Y=0.5x, predicted value has larger related coefficient and smaller NMB values, predicted value and measured value compared with measured value
Average value more coincide, the statistical fluctuation equation established through statistics to annual 58 days heavily contaminated day differentiation rates 65% or more,
As a result preferably, capturing ability of the discriminant equation to heavy air pollution process of foundation is shown.
The statistical result of table 4 2013 years 58 days the heavily contaminated analogues value and monitor value
Technology Roadmap
In practical operation, forecast meteorological data is the Simulation prediction of WRF patterns as a result, WRF patterns are initial and boundary provides
Material analyzes data GFS day by day again for NCAR's and NCEP, and resolution ratio is 1 ° × 1 °, and temporal resolution is 6h (00：00、06：00、
12：00、18：00)；Landform and underlying surface input data are respectively from USGS 30s whole world landform and MODIS underlying surfaces classification money
Material.
It is whether accurate in order to verify fitting result, 2014~2015 years fine particles are added to number with meteorological measuring
According in library, updating and establish new statistical relationship.Using new 2 red early warning phases of prognostic equation pair in December, 2015 Beijing
Between PM2.5 concentration carry out verification assessment, predicted value and measured value have good time change it can be seen from Fig. 4 (a), 4 (b)
Trend, prognostic equation can capture this heavy air pollution process, as a result more coincide, can be Warning Service.
Particular embodiments described above has carried out further in detail the purpose of the present invention, technical solution and advantageous effect
Describe in detail bright, it should be understood that the above is only a specific embodiment of the present invention, is not intended to restrict the invention, it is all
Within the spirit and principles in the present invention, any modification, equivalent substitution, improvement and etc. done should be included in the protection of the present invention
Within the scope of.
Claims (6)
1. a kind of forecasting procedure of air heavily contaminated weather, which is characterized in that include the following steps：
Step S1：It collects, obtain the history meteorological data for waiting for forecast area；
Step S2：Choose following four meteorologic parameters：When 24 hourly average wind speed, 24 hours transformations, 08 850 with 1000hPa temperature
Fine particle mean value concentration is controlled as impact factor in the difference of degree and state's yesterday；
Step S3：By way of fitting, air heavily contaminated prognostic equation is established using the meteorologic parameter of selection as the factor, by institute
The predicted value and/or measured value for stating meteorologic parameter substitute into the prognostic equation, by seeking equation come to following to be predicted
Polluting weather of whether attaching most importance to some day is predicted；Wherein, the prognostic equation of fitting is：
Wherein, c is the PM of some day to be predicted2.5The average daily concentration of prediction, a0For constant, a1、a2、a3、a4It is regression coefficient；
x1、x2、x3When the 24 hourly average wind speed of some day respectively to be predicted, 24 hours transformations, 08 850 with 1000hPa temperature it
The predicted value of difference, x4The measured value or predicted value of fine particle mean value concentration are controlled for state's yesterday of some day to be predicted.
2. the forecasting procedure of air heavily contaminated weather as described in claim 1, which is characterized in that some day to be predicted
Can be chosen for relative to today, tomorrow or the day after tomorrow when the day before yesterday, respectively in 24 hours following to reply, 24-48 hour it is interior or
The prediction of heavily contaminated weather in 48-72 hours.
3. the forecasting procedure of air heavily contaminated weather as described in claim 1, which is characterized in that x1、x2、x3Numerical value be selected from
The Simulation predictions of WRF patterns as a result, WRF patterns are initial and boundary data is that NCAR and NCEP analyzes data GFS day by day again, point
Resolution is 1 ° × 1 °, and temporal resolution is 6h, and the corresponding time is 00：00、06：00、12：00、18：00；Landform and underlying surface are defeated
Enter data respectively from USGS 30s whole world landform and MODIS underlying surface grouped datas.
4. the forecasting procedure of air heavily contaminated weather as described in claim 1, which is characterized in that for x4, when prediction today
When heavily contaminated weather condition, the measured value of state's control yesterday fine particle mean value concentration is selected；When prediction tomorrow or posteriori heavy dirt
When contaminating weather condition, the predicted value that fine particle mean value concentration will be controlled relative to tomorrow or posteriori state's yesterday is selected.
5. the forecasting procedure of air heavily contaminated weather as described in claim 1, which is characterized in that Beijing City fitting
Prognostic equation in 2013 is：C=103.23-24.974x1-3.8127x2+1.5025x3+0.53945x4。
6. a kind of forecast system of air heavily contaminated weather, which is characterized in that the forecast system is executed based on matlab softwares
The forecasting procedure of air heavily contaminated weather as described in claim 1 to 5 any one, to the following some day to be predicted
Heavily contaminated weather is predicted.
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