CN104573338B - A kind of method applied to sudden pollution of waterhead emergency disposal technology screening with assessing - Google Patents
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Abstract
A kind of method applied to sudden pollution of waterhead emergency disposal technology screening with assessing, the method the present invention relates to pollution of waterhead emergency disposal technology screening with assessing.The purpose of the present invention in order to solve prior art can not ensure breakneck acceleration and assess accuracy the problem of.A kind of is specifically what is followed the steps below applied to sudden pollution of waterhead emergency disposal technology screening and the method for assessment：Step 1: carrying out the extraction of emergency disposal technology in sudden pollution of waterhead similar cases matching and similar cases based on CBR technologies, the screening of emergency disposal technology is completed；Step 2: sudden pollution of waterhead Threat judges；Step 3: the result of determination based on Threat, the assessment of emergency disposal technology is carried out from emergence technology evaluation index system weight corresponding with Threat grade.The present invention is applied to pollution of waterhead emergency disposal field.
Description
Technical field
Method the present invention relates to pollution of waterhead emergency disposal technology screening with assessing.
Background technology
In recent years, China water source sudden pollution accident takes place frequently, and causes serious social danger, and it is different from general
Water pollution, with extremely strong Unpredictability and diversity, can cause a large amount of pollutant leakage discharges, harm is tight in a short time
Weight, processing disposal difficulty is big.Domestic and international expert has done a large amount of further investigations to the emergency disposal technology of all kinds of polluters,
Emergence technology is estimated by setting up single index system, is not combined with history disposal case, underuses history
Disposal experience, it is impossible to ensure breakneck acceleration and assess accuracy.Therefore how to screen rapidly to go out with accurate evaluation and suitably pollute feelings
The emergency disposal technology of scape turns into urgent problem to be solved.
The content of the invention
The purpose of the present invention proposes to solve the problem of prior art can not ensure breakneck acceleration and assess accuracy
A kind of method applied to sudden pollution of waterhead emergency disposal technology screening with assessing.
Above-mentioned goal of the invention is achieved through the following technical solutions：
A kind of method applied to sudden pollution of waterhead emergency disposal technology screening with assessing, it is characterised in that：It is a kind of
It is specifically what is followed the steps below applied to sudden pollution of waterhead emergency disposal technology screening and the method for assessment：
Step 1: carrying out emergency disposal in sudden pollution of waterhead similar cases matching and similar cases based on CBR technologies
The extraction of technology, completes the screening of emergency disposal technology；
Step 2: sudden pollution of waterhead Threat judges；
Step 3: the result of determination based on Threat, from emergence technology evaluation index body corresponding with Threat grade
It is the assessment that weight carries out emergency disposal technology.
Invention effect
Using a kind of method applied to sudden pollution of waterhead emergency disposal technology screening with assessing of the present invention.
(1) present invention incorporates CBR technologies, filtered out and be more than with actual conditions similarity degree by CBR case matching
0.5 history case, and being extracted to the emergence technology applied in similar cases, not only taken full advantage of history disposal experience but also
The breakneck acceleration of emergency disposal technology is improved, the breakneck acceleration of emergency disposal technology is improved 15%.
(2) the emergency disposal technology evaluation index that the present invention is judged using Threat evaluation index system and based on Threat
The dual indexes system of system carries out joint assessment to emergence technology, solves due to burst pollution caused by water head site sensitiveness
When degree is different, the problem of evaluation index weight is inconsistent, it is ensured that the science of appraisal procedure improves the accurate of assessment
Property, the technical support of science can be provided for the Emergency decision for the expert that meets an urgent need, the accuracy of assessment improves 28%.
Brief description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is schematic flow sheet of the present invention；
Fig. 2 is the sudden pollution of waterhead Threat index system figure of embodiment four；
Fig. 3 is the burst pollution of waterhead emergency disposal technology evaluation index system figure of embodiment five；
Fig. 4 is cadmium pollution emergency disposal technical scheme synoptic chart in Longjiang in embodiment 1.
Embodiment
Embodiment one：Illustrate present embodiment with reference to Fig. 1, one kind is applied to sudden pollution of waterhead emergency disposal
Technology screening and the method assessed, it is characterised in that：One kind is applied to sudden pollution of waterhead emergency disposal technology screening with commenting
The method estimated is specifically what is followed the steps below：
Step 1: carrying out emergency disposal in sudden pollution of waterhead similar cases matching and similar cases based on CBR technologies
The extraction of technology, completes the screening of emergency disposal technology；
Step 2: sudden pollution of waterhead Threat judges；
Step 3: the result of determination based on Threat, from emergence technology evaluation index body corresponding with Threat grade
It is the assessment that weight carries out emergency disposal technology.
Embodiment two：Present embodiment from unlike embodiment one：CBR technologies in the step one
For：
In formula：E(Sn(k), Sj(k), W) it is adjacent function, Sn(k) it is the property value of new input k-th of index of case；Sj
(k) it is the property value of k-th of index of j-th of case in case library；wkFor the weighted value of reasoning by cases index k；sim(Sn(k),
Sj(k) it is) new input case and k-th of index similarity degree function of case j in case library.
Other steps and parameter are identical with embodiment one.
Embodiment three：Present embodiment from unlike embodiment one or two：The new input case
With k-th of index similarity degree function sim (S of case j in case libraryn(k),Sj(k) being calculated as)：
First, the type of k-th of index is divided into three kinds of situations：
(1) when k-th of index is discrete values type：
Sn(k)=Sj(k) when, sim (Sn(k),Sj(k))=1；Sn(k)≠Sj(k) when, sim (Sn(k),Sj(k))=0；
(2) when k-th of index is symbol attribute value：
Sn(k)=Sj(k) when, sim (Sn(k),Sj(k))=1；Sn(k)≠Sj(k) when, sim (Sn(k),Sj(k))=0；
(3) when k-th of index is serial number type：
sim(sn(k),sj(k))=1- | [sn(k)-sj(k)]/range(s(k))|
In formula：Range (s (k)) is the span of k-th of index.
Wherein, the serial number type is divided into two kinds of situations：
1) river flow：Influence pollutant to reach the time of intake, and then influence the pressing degree of emergency disposal and answer
The selection of anxious technology.Found by the investigation of history case and related hydraulics books, no matter what type of water source, max-flow
Speed is no more than 3m/s；
2) pollutant times of ultra standard：Fingering enters the pollutant concentration of water body compared to the thing in water environment quality standard
The multiple that matter concentration limit exceeds, is investigated by a large amount of history cases, and the maximum of pollutant times of ultra standard is set to by the present invention
200；
The symbol attribute value type is divided into six kinds of situations：
1) pollutant type index, is divided into hazardous chemical, oil spilling, heavy metal, mine tailing and the attribute value of algae 5；
2) pollutant toxicity index, is divided into severe toxicity, high poison, medium poison, low toxicity and micro- malicious 5 grades；It is shown in Table 1,
The chemical substance acute toxicity of table 1 is classified
3) pollutant dissolubility index, is divided into insoluble, slightly soluble, solvable and readily soluble 4 attribute；It is shown in Table 2,
The chemical dissolution of table 2 is classified
4) incident positioning index, is divided into one-level Potable Water Conservation area, two grades of Potable Water Conservation areas, quasi- water conservation districts
With non-water conservation district；
5) water head site level index, is divided into administrative village, natural village, enterprise and provides water factory's water head site for oneself；Jie Huo towns level water head site；
Area or county town water head site；City 4 ranks of main water head site；
6) pollutant Chinese index, is divided into benzene, cadmium, arsenic, blue-green algae, chromium, lead, aniline；
2nd, determine that river flow, pollutant times of ultra standard, pollutant type index, pollutant toxicity refer to using R-AHP methods
In mark, pollutant dissolubility index, incident positioning index, water head site level index and 8 cases of pollutant Chinese index
Each case matches index weights；It is shown in Table 3,
The case of table 3 matches index weights
After water source burst pollution, it is first depending on live pollution condition and inputs the property value that 8 cases match index, using phase
Adjacent function calculates each history case and the similarity degree of actual pollution scene, matches the case that similarity degree is more than 0.5, and will
Its emergency disposal technology applied is extracted, and completes the screening of emergency disposal technology.
Other steps and parameter are identical with embodiment one or two.
Embodiment four：Unlike one of present embodiment and embodiment one to three：The step 2
In sudden pollution of waterhead Threat judge to concretely comprise the following steps：
After water source burst pollution, pollute to the influence degree of intake because of pollutant concentration, leak position, Transport etc.
Factor it is different and different, therefore should also have in the selection of emergence technology different stress.The present invention proposes " Threat ",
It is used for anticipation and describes threat degree of the burst pollution to intake, so as to influences emergency disposal technology evaluation index system to weigh
The determination of weight.When Threat is higher, the weight of the indexs such as ageing, operability should be improved；When Threat is relatively low, then it should more note
The weight of the indexs such as weight cost of disposal, so as to pass through the continuous adjustment to technology evaluation index system weight, it is ensured that technology evaluation
Accuracy.
" threat characteristics index method " is the comprehensive emergency assessment method influenceed for water source burst pollution, abbreviation TCI
(Threaten Characteristic Index) method.This method quickly, accurately, objectively can assess dirty after pollution occurs
Influence of the dye accident to intake, and assessment result is characterized using " feature threat ", determine accident to threat of intake etc.
Level.
1) threatening factors are recognized：In the accident information of water source burst pollution, master of the accident to intake influence degree is determined
The factor is wanted to have：Pollutant property, the total amount of pollutant, pollution position, contaminant transportation, accident pattern, the hydrology, weather conditions, water
Source ground scale, emergency monitoring situation, alternate source situation；
In the accident information of water source burst pollution, decision accident has to the Main Factors of intake influence degree：
Pollutant property：It is influence thing into physicochemical properties such as the toxicity of the pollutant of water body, persistence, inflammable and explosive property
Therefore to a key factor of intake threat degree；
The total amount of pollutant：The total amount and concentration for entering the pollutant of water body by approach such as leakage, discharges can be to accidents
The extent of injury plays material impact；
Pollute position：The distance that pollutant enters the positional distance intake of water body can directly affect accident to intake
Threat, and then influence the urgency of emergency disposal；
Contaminant transportation：Movement locus of the pollutant in water will determine its length the time required to reaching intake, enter
And influence threat of the accident to intake；
Accident pattern：Water source burst pollution has natural calamity, leakage, the diversified forms such as discharge, and different degrees of in violation of rules and regulations
Pollution range and intensity of the upper influence polluter in water body, and then produce different threaten；
The hydrology, weather conditions：Flow velocity, flow and the wind speed and direction of water body can extreme influence pollutants when accident occurs
Movement locus, and then influence accident to the threat degree of intake；
Water head site scale：The rank of water head site is higher, service number is more, then to the prestige of intake after pop-up threat
Side of body degree is bigger；
Emergency monitoring situation：It will be influence that field monitoring and monitoring cycle length whether can be carried out after water source burst pollution
Another key factor of the accident to intake threat degree；
Alternate source situation：If the intake influenceed by water source pop-up threat has available for the alternate source supplied water,
Then the threat degree of accident will be substantially reduced；
2) crucial threatening factors screening：Threatening factors are analyzed, the crucial threat of influence accident Threat is filtered out
The factor, i.e. pollutant toxicity (P), pollutant times of ultra standard (A), pollutant leak position (L), pollution group's migration (T), standby water
Source (W) totally 5 crucial threatening factors；
After the standards of grading for considering each index, crucial threatening factors Scoring System table is depicted, 4 are shown in Table,
The crucial threatening factors Scoring System table of table 4
3) crucial threatening factors index weights are determined：Key factor weight is determined：Based on filter out 5 it is crucial threaten because
Son builds Threat index system, tries to achieve each crucial threatening factors index in 5 crucial threatening factors using R-AHP methods and weighs
Weight；Such as Fig. 2；
Then, each index weights in Threat index system are tried to achieve using R-AHP methods, is shown in Table 5；
The case of table 5 matches index weights
Composite index is calculated：
In formula：PiFor the aggregative weighted score value of each key index；
TCI is threat characteristics index；N is index total number, and i is single index；
Composite index is classified：The synthesis evaluation index calculated is divided into some intervals, and will each interval correspondence
One " threat characteristics ", represent different Threat grades；
4) crucial threatening factors classification：By each crucial threatening factors index weights in filter out 5 crucial threatening factors
Value is divided into different brackets, and assigns corresponding score value；According to crucial threatening factors different brackets, calculate accident threat characteristics and refer to
Number,
TCI=P × A × L × T × W
TCI span is 1-12, is divided into 4 intervals, one threat characteristics of each interval correspondence, is represented not
Same Threat grade；
Consider the standards of grading of each index, draw crucial threatening factors Scoring System table；It is shown in Table 6；
When the Threat grade of 9 ＜ TCI≤12 be I grades, the Threat grade of 6 ＜ TCI≤9 be II grades, the Threat of 3 ＜ TCI≤6
Grade is that III level, the Threat grade of TCI≤3 are IV grades；" Threat grade " is chosen to represent as final assessment；It is shown in Table 7；
In formula：TCI is threat characteristics index；P is pollutant toxic weighted score；A weights for pollutant times of ultra standard
Score value；L is that pollutant reveals position weighted score；T is pollution group migration weighted score；W is alternate source weighted score.
The crucial threatening factors Scoring System table of table 6
The Threat grade scale of table 7 and meaning
Other steps and parameter are identical with one of embodiment one to three.
Embodiment five：Unlike one of present embodiment and embodiment one to four：The step 3
The middle method of emergency disposal technology evaluation judged based on Threat of setting up is specially：
First, the emergency disposal technology evaluation index system judged based on Threat is set up
Herein the sudden water source comprising 6 rule layer indexs and 19 indicator layer indexs is constructed from analytic hierarchy process (AHP)
Water pollution emergency disposal technology evaluation index system, is shown in Fig. 3；
6 rule layer indexs are technical performance B1, emergency materials B2, cost of disposal B3, social image B4, ambient influnence B5
With emergent waste B6；
19 indicator layer indexs are technical backstopping condition C 1, the ageing C2 of technology, technology maturity C3, technology operability
C4, technical finesse effect C5, goods and materials obtain difficulty C6, goods and materials ease of use C7, emergency materials cost C8, emergent manpower into
This C9, emergency operating cost C10, the disturbance degree C11 to resident living, resident are to the support C12 of technology, the influence of water quality
C13, the influence C14 of bed mud, ecological influence C15, disposal difficulty C16, cost of disposal C17, risk in transit C18 and disposal risk
C19；
On the basis of operability is ensured, the index system is examined needed for containing one emergence technology of evaluation as much as possible
The factor of worry, and the implication of each evaluation index is described in detail, it is shown in Table 8；
The implication explanation of the evaluation index of table 8
2nd, calculated using R-AHP methods and obtain 6 rule layer indexs corresponding from different Threat grades and 19 indicator layers
The burst pollution of waterhead emergency disposal technology evaluation index system weighted value of index；
When the Threat of water source burst pollution is different, illustrate that its pollution is also different to the threat degree of water head site, therefore,
When being estimated using emergence technology evaluation index system to emergent disposal technology, different index system weights should be used.
When water source burst pollution Threat grade is I grades, that is, mean that pollution has special significant threat to intake,
When carrying out the choice of technology, the ageing of emergence technology evaluation index system, technology operability, emergency materials should be increased convenient
The weighted value of the indexs such as property, and suitably weaken the weight of the indexs such as emergency disposal cost, social environment influence, therefore table should be used
Emergence technology evaluation index system weighted value in 9 is estimated to emergence technology；
Index weights under the I grades of Threats of table 9
When water source burst pollution Threat grade is II grades, represent that burst pollution has significant threat to intake,
When carrying out the choice of technology, the weight of the index such as the ageing of emergency disposal technology evaluation index system, operability, emergency materials
It should be still higher, but now should with due regard to improve the indexs such as cost of disposal, the social environment influence of emergency disposal technology
Weight, therefore can use table 10 in weighted value urgent technique is estimated；
Index weights under the II grades of Threats of table 10
When the Threat grade of water source burst pollution is III level, illustrate that burst pollution has moderate threat to intake,
Though pollution may cause water supply city small area, short time to be cut off the water, but not make the normal social production of resident, live by larger
Influence, also will not greatly weaken the service function of water head site, when now should suitably cut down in emergence technology evaluation index system
The weight of the indexs such as effect property, operability, and the weight of the indexs such as emergency disposal cost, social environment influence is adjusted by a small margin
Height, therefore emergent disposal technology is estimated using the index weightses in table 11 herein；
Index weights under the III level Threat of table 11
When the Threat grade of water source burst pollution is IV grades, it is meant that the threat polluted to intake is small, will not lead
Water supply city is caused to cut off the water, the influence to the normal production and living of resident is relatively low, therefore should be appropriate when carrying out emergence technology selection
Weaken on the basis of the index weights such as technical performance, cost of disposal, increase substantially the indexs such as cost of disposal, social environment influence
Weight, i.e., the weighted value in table 12 should be used to be estimated emergent disposal technology；
Index weights under the IV grades of Threats of table 12
When burst pollution Threat is I/II grades, show urban water supply safety by great threat, now emergence technology
It is ageing that the core index of assessment should be technology；III/IV grades of Threats show that burst pollution is limited to water head site destructiveness,
Water supply security will not be caused to have a strong impact on, now while technical performance is considered, the cost of emergency disposal should be reduced；
3rd, the standards of grading of each index in 19 indicator layer indexs in emergency disposal technology evaluation index system are determined；
The standards of grading of each index in the pollution of waterhead emergency disposal technology evaluation index system that happens suddenly are divided into 3 levels
Not, 3,6,10 corresponding score values are assigned respectively；It is shown in Table 13；
The emergence technology evaluation index system standards of grading of table 13
The present invention carries out the assessment of urgent technique using comprehensive scoring method, according to accident Threat grade from corresponding
Urgent technique evaluation index weight；Then according to live pollution condition and the characteristic of technology, the scoring according to each index
Standard is given a mark to index；Each index weights and corresponding score value are finally subjected to product summation, urgent technique is obtained
Comprehensive grading, chooses fraction highest emergency disposal technology and is applied at the scene of sudden pollution of waterhead emergency disposal technology
Put.
Other steps and parameter are identical with one of embodiment one to five.
Beneficial effects of the present invention are verified using following examples：
Embodiment 1：
Feasibility of the present invention to appraisal procedure by taking Guangxi Longjiang cadmium pollution accident as an example is verified.
Because the illegal blowdown of enterprise causes about 21 tons of cadmium wastewater to enter Longjiang by underground karst cavity, to downstream potable water source
Ground Liujiang causes great threat, seriously jeopardizes the water supply security of Liuzhou City.Real-time Monitoring Data shows cadmium concentration peak value in Longjiang
For 0.408mg/L, exceed《Water environment quality standard》About 83 times of Group III Cadmium In The Water Body concentration standard limited value.
Step 1: being carried based on the sudden pollution of waterhead case matching index weights of CBR technologies progress and emergency disposal technology
Take, complete the screening of emergency disposal technology；
CBR technologies are：Using adjacent function algorithm,
In formula：E(Sn(k), Sj(k), W) it is adjacent function, Sn(k) it is the property value of new input k-th of index of case；Sj
(k) it is the property value of k-th of index of j-th of case in case library；wkFor the weighted value of reasoning by cases index k；sim(Sn(k),
Sj(k) it is) new input case and k-th of index similarity degree function of case j in case library.
First, the type of k-th of index is divided into three kinds of situations：
(1) when k-th of index is discrete values type：
Sn(k)=Sj(k) when, sim (Sn(k),Sj(k))=1；Sn(k)≠Sj(k) when, sim (Sn(k),Sj(k))=0；
(2) when k-th of index is symbol attribute value：
Sn(k)=Sj(k) when, sim (Sn(k),Sj(k))=1；Sn(k)≠Sj(k) when, sim (Sn(k),Sj(k))=0；
(3) when k-th of index is serial number type：
sim(sn(k),sj(k))=1- | [sn(k)-sj(k)]/range(s(k))|
In formula：Range (s (k)) is the span of k-th of index；
Wherein, the serial number type is divided into two kinds of situations：
(1) the serial number type is divided into two kinds of situations：
1) river flow：Peak Flow Rate is the index no more than 3m/s；
2) pollutant times of ultra standard：The maximum of pollutant times of ultra standard is set to 200；
(2) the symbol attribute value type is divided into six kinds of situations：
1) pollutant type index is divided into hazardous chemical, oil spilling, heavy metal, mine tailing and the attribute value of algae 5；
2) pollutant toxicity index is divided into severe toxicity, high poison, medium poison, low toxicity and micro- malicious 5 grades；
3) pollutant dissolubility index be divided into insoluble, slightly soluble, solvable and readily soluble 4 attribute；
4) incident positioning index is divided into one-level Potable Water Conservation area, two grades of Potable Water Conservation areas, quasi- water conservation districts
With non-water conservation district；
5) water head site level index is divided into administrative village, natural village, enterprise and provides water factory's water head site for oneself；Jie Huo towns level water head site；
Area or county town water head site；City 4 ranks of main water head site；
6) pollutant Chinese index is divided into benzene, cadmium, arsenic, blue-green algae, chromium, lead, aniline；
2nd, determine that river flow, pollutant times of ultra standard, pollutant type index, pollutant toxicity refer to using R-AHP methods
In mark, pollutant dissolubility index, incident positioning index, water head site level index and 8 cases of pollutant Chinese index
Each case matches index weights；
After water source burst pollution, the property value that live pollution condition inputs each index in 8 cases is first depending on, using phase
Adjacent function calculates each history case and the similarity of actual pollution scene, matches the case that similarity is more than 0.5, and by its institute
The emergency disposal technology of application is extracted, and completes the screening of emergency disposal technology.
The CBR case matching techniques set up according to the present invention, have filtered out 5 sets of feasible emergency disposal technical schemes,
As shown in table 14；
Step 2: sudden pollution of waterhead Threat judges；
20 professional persons from water pollution prevention and control field have carried out detailed investigation to contamination accident, using based on prestige
The emergency disposal technology evaluation model that stress judges is estimated to feasible emergence technology scheme；
1) threatening factors are recognized：I.e. pollutant property, pollutant toxicity, pollutant times of ultra standard, pollutant leak position,
The total amount of pollutant, the migration of pollution group, accident pattern, the hydrology, weather conditions, water head site scale, emergency monitoring situation and standby water
Source situation；
2) crucial threatening factors screening：That is pollutant toxic, pollutant times of ultra standard, pollutant leak position, pollution
Roll into a ball migration, alternate source totally 5 crucial threatening factors；
3) crucial threatening factors index weights are determined：Each crucial threat in 5 crucial threatening factors is tried to achieve using R-AHP methods
Level of factor weighted value；
4) crucial threatening factors classification：Each crucial threatening factors index weightses in 5 crucial threatening factors are divided into not
Ad eundem, and assign corresponding score value；According to crucial threatening factors different brackets, accident threat characteristics index is calculated,
TCI=P × A × L × T × W
TCI span is 1-12, is divided into 4 intervals, one threat characteristics of each interval correspondence, is represented not
Same Threat grade；When the Threat grade of 9 ＜ TCI≤12 be I grades, the Threat grade of 6 ＜ TCI≤9 be II grades, 3 ＜ TCI≤
6 Threat grades are that III level, the Threat grade of TCI≤3 are IV grades；
In formula：TCI is threat characteristics index；P is pollutant toxic index weightses；A is that pollutant times of ultra standard refers to
Mark weighted value；L is that pollutant reveals positioning index weighted value；T is pollution group migration index weightses；W is alternate source index
Weighted value.
Threat evaluation index is given a mark according to actual pollution condition, judges that accident threatens (6.2842) as II grades,
It is shown in Table 10；
Step 3: setting up the emergency disposal technology evaluation judged based on Threat；
First, the emergency disposal technology evaluation index system judged based on Threat is set up
Using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) build 6 rule layer indexs, be divided into technical performance B1, emergency materials B2, cost of disposal B3,
Social image B4, ambient influnence B5 and emergent waste B6；
6 rule layer indexs include the burst pollution of waterhead emergency disposal technology evaluation index system of 19 indicator layer indexs
Specially：
Technical performance B1 includes technical backstopping condition C 1, the ageing C2 of technology, technology maturity C3, technology operability C4
With technical finesse effect C5；
Emergency materials B2 includes goods and materials and obtains difficulty C6 and goods and materials ease of use C7；
Cost of disposal B3 includes emergency materials cost C8, emergent human cost C9 and emergency operating cost C10；
Social image B4 is included to resident living influence degree C11 and resident to technical support degree C12；
Ambient influnence B5 includes influence C13, the influence C14 of bed mud of water quality and the influence C15 of ecology；
Emergent waste B6 includes disposal difficulty C16, cost of disposal C17, risk in transit C18 and disposal risk C19；
2nd, calculated using R-AHP methods and obtain 6 rule layer indexs corresponding from different Threat grades and 19 indicator layers
The burst pollution of waterhead emergency disposal technology evaluation index system weighted value of index；
Technical performance B1 rule layers index weightses are support condition C 1 weighted value, the ageing C2 weighted values of technology, technology
Maturity C3 weighted values, technology operability C4 weighted values and technical finesse effect C5 weighted value sums；
Emergency materials B2 rule layers index weightses are that goods and materials obtain difficulty C6 weighted values and goods and materials ease of use C7
Weighted value sum；
Cost of disposal B3 rule layers index weightses are emergency materials cost C8 weighted values, emergent human cost C9 weighted values
With emergency operating cost C10 weighted value sums；
Social image B4 rule layers index weightses are to technology branch to resident living influence degree C11 weighted values and resident
Hold degree C12 weighted value sums；
Ambient influnence B5 rule layers index weightses are the influence C13 weighted values of water quality, the influence C14 weighted values of bed mud and
Ecological influence C15 weighted value sums；
Emergent waste B6 rule layers index weightses are disposal difficulty C16 weighted values, cost of disposal C17 weighted values, transport
Risk C18 weighted values and disposal risk C19 weighted value sums；
3rd, the standards of grading of each index in 19 indicator layer indexs in emergency disposal technology evaluation index system are determined；
By the scoring of each index in 19 indicator layer indexs in the pollution of waterhead emergency disposal technology evaluation index system that happens suddenly
Standard is divided into A, B, C3 ranks, and 3,6,10 corresponding score values are assigned respectively；
Rely on 1 point of condition C be：A, have can rely on condition and without transformation can come into operation rapidly；B, to have and can rely on
Condition but it need to transform and can come into operation；C, for condition can not be relied on；Wherein, A assigns 10 points, and B assigns 6 points, and C assigns 3 points；
The ageing C2 of technology divides：A, implement effectively control pollutant in the technology short time；B, implement technology
Certain time is needed effectively to control pollutant；C, institute's implementation technology need the long period just can effectively control pollutant；Its
In, A assigns 10 points, and B assigns 6 points, and C assigns 3 points；
Technology maturity C3 divides：A, technology are commercial operation technology and had been widely used；B, technology are demonstration operation skill
Art but not extensive use；C, technology are still in the preliminary test stage；Wherein, A assigns 10 points, and B assigns 6 points, and C assigns 3 points；
Technology operability C4 divides：A, technology are implemented to be not required to professional facility and professional；B, technology are implemented to need specialty
Facility and the personnel for possessing certain professional ability；C, technology implement must have professional facility and the stronger personnel of professional ability；Its
In, A assigns 10 points, and B assigns 6 points, and C assigns 3 points；
Technical finesse effect C5 divides：A, technology can eliminate intake or the influence being subject to of supplying water after implementing；B, technology are real
Shi Houneng mitigates intake or supplied water by being influenceed；C, technology can not cut down intake or the influence being subject to of supplying water after implementing；
Wherein, A assigns 10 points, and B assigns 6 points, and C assigns 3 points；
Goods and materials obtain C6 points of difficulty：The acquisition of emergency materials is relatively easy needed for A, technology are implemented；B, technology are implemented
The acquisition relative difficult of required emergency materials；Emergency materials needed for C, technology are implemented are extremely difficult to be obtained；Wherein, A assigns 10 points, and B is assigned
6 points are given, C assigns 3 points；
Goods and materials ease of use C7 divides：A, goods and materials can be direct plungeed into and used；B, goods and materials need to be through simple process or simple
Equipment auxiliary lower section can be used；C, goods and materials need to just can be used through complex process or under plurality of devices auxiliary；Wherein, A assigns 10
Point, B assigns 6 points, and C assigns 3 points；
Emergency materials cost C8 divides：The financial cost that emergency materials needed for A, technology are implemented expend is cheap；B, technology are real
The financial cost that emergency materials needed for applying expend is general；The financial cost that emergency materials needed for C, technology are implemented expend is high；Its
In, A assigns 10 points, and B assigns 6 points, and C assigns 3 points；
Emergent human cost C9, which divides, is：The financial cost that manpower needed for A, technology are implemented expends is cheap；B, technology implement institute
The financial cost for needing manpower to expend is general；The financial cost that manpower needed for C, technology are implemented expends is high；Wherein, A assigns 10 points,
B assigns 6 points, and C assigns 3 points；
Emergency operating cost C10 divides：The financial cost of energy consumption is cheap needed for A, technology are implemented；B, technology implement institute
Need the financial cost of energy consumption general；The financial cost of energy consumption is high needed for C, technology are implemented；Wherein, A assigns 10 points,
B assigns 6 points, and C assigns 3 points；
It is to C11 points of the disturbance degree of resident living：A, technology implement minimum or without influence on social life influence；B, technology
There is certain influence after implementation to social life；There is very big influence to social life after implementing in C, technology；Wherein, A is assigned
10 points are given, B assigns 6 points, and C assigns 3 points；
Resident divides the support C12 of technology：The implementation of A, most residents to the technology is supported；B, Duo Shuoju
Implementation of the people to the technology sits on the fence；The implementation of C, most residents to the technology is held the attitude of objection；Wherein, A assigns 10 points,
B assigns 6 points, and C assigns 3 points；
The influence C13 of water quality, which divides, is：A, technology implement that source quality will not be impacted；B, technology are implemented can be to water source
Water quality causes certain influence；C, technology are implemented source quality to be caused to have a strong impact on；Wherein, A assigns 10 points, and B assigns 6 points, C
Assign 3 points；
The influence C14 of bed mud, which divides, is：A, technology implement that water source bed mud will not be impacted；B, technology are implemented can be to water source
Bed mud causes certain influence；C, technology implement that water source bed mud can be caused to have a strong impact on；Wherein, A assigns 10 points, and B assigns 6 points, C
Assign 3 points；
Ecological influence C15, which divides, is：A, technology implement that the ecological environment of water head site will not be impacted；B, technology are implemented
Certain influence can be caused on the ecological environment of water head site；C, technology implement that the ecological environment of water head site can be caused to have a strong impact on；
Wherein, A assigns 10 points, and B assigns 6 points, and C assigns 3 points；
Disposal difficulty C16, which divides, is：The disposal difficulty that A, technology implement produced emergent waste is relatively low；B, technology implement institute
There is certain difficulty in the disposal of the emergent waste produced；The disposal difficulty that C, technology implement produced emergent waste is very big；Its
In, A assigns 10 points, and B assigns 6 points, and C assigns 3 points；
Cost of disposal C17 divides：The cost of disposal that A, technology implement produced emergent waste is cheap；B, technology implement institute
The cost of disposal of the emergent waste produced is general；The cost of disposal that C, technology implement produced emergent waste is high；Wherein, A
10 points are assigned, B assigns 6 points, and C assigns 3 points；
Risk in transit C18 divides：The risk in transit that A, technology implement produced emergent waste is relatively low；B, technology implement institute
There is certain risk in the transport of the emergent waste produced；The risk in transit that C, technology implement produced emergent waste is very big；Its
In, A assigns 10 points, and B assigns 6 points, and C assigns 3 points；
Disposal risk C19, which divides, is：The possibility that A, the disposal of emergent waste produce harm to personnel environment is smaller；It is B, emergent useless
The disposal of thing may cause certain harm to personnel environment；C, the disposal of emergent waste produce the possibility of harm to personnel environment
Greatly；Wherein, A assigns 10 points, and B assigns 6 points, and C assigns 3 points；
19 indicator layer indexs in corresponding emergency disposal technology evaluation index system are selected according to accident Threat grade
In each index weighted value；Standards of grading according to each index are given a mark to index；Finally by each index system weighted value and
Corresponding score value carries out product summation, chooses fraction highest emergency disposal technology and is applied to sudden pollution of waterhead emergency disposal skill
The method that art is assessed.
Therefore the weighted value of emergence technology evaluation index system corresponding with II grades of Threats is selected to each emergence technology side
Case is estimated, the marking result of comprehensive every expert, and the scheme evaluation of estimate and preferred sequence drawn is：Scheme 1 (9.0650)
(8.7326) ＞ schemes 5 (8.5318) of 4 (8.7347) ＞ schemes of ＞ schemes 3 (8.7551) ＞ schemes 2, are shown in Table 14.
The feasible emergency disposal technical scheme of table 14
Actual emergency disposal process is：5 grades of steps such as the drawing of bank is unrestrained, full of leaves in Longjiang river bank, Luo Dong, three troubles, glutinous rice beach
At power station, liquid caustic soda and PAC are added, the pH of river is promoted to 8.1~8.4, the dissolubility during river pollution is rolled into a ball as much as possible
Cadmium ion is settled down to river bed, and controls the letdown flow of Longjiang river polluted water mass；Meanwhile, in Longjiang and Rong Jiang intersections, use
Water transfer dilution technology, i.e., by increasing the amount of releasing in the power stations such as float stone, Gu Ding, big Pu, the concentration of group is polluted in further dilution；Most
Afterwards, emergent reform is carried out to Liu Bei, medium 5 water factories in city, pollutant is removed using Mixing enhancement+, Fig. 4 is seen, led to
The joint disposal of multiple emergence technology is crossed, the concentration of cadmium pollution group is down to 0.0039mg/L, meets water supply requirement.As a result show,
The emergence technology Integrated Evaluation Model that the present invention is built successfully has filtered out the emergency disposal technical scheme being consistent with real case,
It is shown in Table 15,16.
The Threat index of table 15 scores
Each technical scheme score of table 16
Claims (1)
1. a kind of method applied to sudden pollution of waterhead emergency disposal technology screening with assessing, it is characterised in that：One kind should
It is specifically what is followed the steps below for sudden pollution of waterhead emergency disposal technology screening and the method for assessment：
Step 1: carrying out emergency disposal technology in sudden pollution of waterhead similar cases matching and similar cases based on CBR technologies
Extraction, complete emergency disposal technology screening；
Step 2: sudden pollution of waterhead Threat judges；
Step 3: the result of determination based on Threat, is weighed from emergence technology evaluation index system corresponding with Threat grade
The assessment of emergency disposal technology is carried out again；
CBR technologies are in the step one：
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In formula：E(Sn(k), Sj(k), W) it is adjacent function, Sn(k) it is the property value of new input k-th of index of case；Sj(k) it is
The property value of k-th of index of j-th of case in case library；wkFor the weighted value of reasoning by cases index k；sim(Sn(k),Sj
(k) it is) new input case and k-th of index similarity degree function of case j in case library；
The new input case and k-th of index similarity degree function sim (S of case j in case libraryn(k),Sj(k) calculating)
For：
First, the type of k-th of index is divided into three kinds of situations：
(1) when k-th of index is discrete values type：
Sn(k)=Sj(k) when, sim (Sn(k),Sj(k))=1；Sn(k)≠Sj(k) when, sim (Sn(k),Sj(k))=0；
(2) when k-th of index is symbol attribute value type：
Sn(k)=Sj(k) when, sim (Sn(k),Sj(k))=1；Sn(k)≠Sj(k) when, sim (Sn(k),Sj(k))=0；
(3) when k-th of index is serial number type：
sim(sn(k),sj(k))=1- | [sn(k)-sj(k)]/range(s(k))|
In formula：Range (s (k)) is the span of k-th of index；
Wherein, the serial number type is divided into two kinds of situations：
1) river flow：Peak Flow Rate is no more than 3m/s；
2) pollutant times of ultra standard：The maximum of pollutant times of ultra standard is set to 200；
The symbol attribute value type is divided into six kinds of situations：
1) pollutant type index, is divided into hazardous chemical, oil spilling, heavy metal, mine tailing and the attribute value of algae 5；
2) pollutant toxicity index, is divided into severe toxicity, high poison, medium poison, low toxicity and micro- malicious 5 grades；
3) pollutant dissolubility index, is divided into insoluble, slightly soluble, solvable and readily soluble 4 attribute；
4) incident positioning index, is divided into one-level Potable Water Conservation area, two grades of Potable Water Conservation areas, quasi- water conservation district and non-
Water conservation district；
5) water head site level index, is divided into administrative village, natural village, enterprise and provides water factory's water head site for oneself；Jie Huo towns level water head site；Qu Huo
County town water head site；City 4 ranks of main water head site；
6) pollutant Chinese index, is divided into benzene, cadmium, arsenic, blue-green algae, chromium, lead, aniline；
2nd, using R-AHP methods determine river flow, pollutant times of ultra standard, pollutant type index, pollutant toxicity index,
Each case in pollutant dissolubility index, incident positioning index, 8 cases of water head site level index and pollutant Chinese index
Example matching index weights；
After water source burst pollution, it is first depending on live pollution condition and inputs the property value that 8 cases match index, using adjacent letter
Each history case and the similarity degree of actual pollution scene are figured out, the case that similarity degree is more than 0.5 is matched, and by its institute
The emergency disposal technology of application is extracted, and completes the screening of emergency disposal technology；
In the step 2 sudden pollution of waterhead Threat judge detailed process as：
1) threatening factors are recognized：That is pollutant property, pollutant toxicity, pollutant times of ultra standard, pollutant leak position, pollution
Thing total amount, the migration of pollution group, accident pattern, the hydrology, weather conditions, water head site scale, emergency monitoring situation and alternate source feelings
Condition；
2) crucial threatening factors screening：I.e. pollutant toxic, pollutant times of ultra standard, pollutant leak position, pollution group move
Move, alternate source totally 5 crucial threatening factors；
3) crucial threatening factors index weights are determined：Each crucial threatening factors in 5 crucial threatening factors are tried to achieve using R-AHP methods
Index weightses；
4) crucial threatening factors classification：Each crucial threatening factors in 5 crucial threatening factors are divided into according to the difference of property value
Different brackets, and assign corresponding score value；According to crucial threatening factors different brackets, accident threat characteristics index is calculated,
TCI=P × A × L × T × W
TCI span is 1-12, is divided into 4 intervals, one threat characteristics of each interval correspondence, is represented different
Threat grade；
When the Threat grade of 9 ＜ TCI≤12 be I grades, the Threat grade of 6 ＜ TCI≤9 be II grades, the Threat grade of 3 ＜ TCI≤6
It it is IV grades for III level, the Threat grade of TCI≤3；
In formula：TCI is threat characteristics index；P is pollutant toxic index weights and the product value of marking value；A is pollutant
Times of ultra standard index weights and the product value of marking value；L is the product value that pollutant reveals positioning index weight and marking value；T
For pollution group migration index weights and the product value of marking value；W is alternate source index weights and the product value of marking value.
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