Abstract
Hydrological models always forecast variable status and, therefore, need further studies in models to make more real the management of the water resources. Analysis and execution of the watershed model are essential to carry out the valid assessment of water resources, individually in Kabul river sub-basin, where the modeling is a challengeable issue due to the lack of data. In this research, the Kabul river sub-basin watershed located at the Istalif station is modeled through the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to predict the future streamflow and climate change impacts on it. The model is calibrated with monthly discharge data for 2003–2010 and validated for 2010–2018. SWAT-CUP, which recently has developed with the capacity of providing the decision making for using manual and automated calibration and incorporating sensitivity and uncertainty analysis through (SUFI2) algorithm, is used for calibration and validation. According to coefficient of determination (R2), Nash Sutcliffe efficiency, and present bias parameters, the calculation indicates an excellent performance for both calibration and validation periods and acceptable agreement between measured and simulated values of monthly scale discharge. Results show the importance of climate change effect on water resources, where it does not have only an effect on precipitation and temperature, but the streamflow is also directly influenced by climate change. The impact of climate change on the surface flow as well as land use/land cover change and other different scenarios is evaluated using calibrated SWAT model for further investigation.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Aawar T, Khare D, Singh L (2019) Identification of the trend in precipitation and temperature over the Kabul river sub-basin: a case study of Afghanistan. Model Earth Syst Environ. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-019-00597-9
Abbaspour KC (2015) SWAT-CUP: SWAT calibration and uncertainty programs—a user manual. Department of Systems Analysis, Integrated Assessment and Modelling (SIAM), EAWAG, Swiss Federal Institute of Aqualtic Science and Technology, Duebendorf 10.1007/s00402-009-1032-4
Abseno MM (2013) Nile river basin. UN Watercourses Conv Force Strength Int Law Transbound Water Manag. https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203135365
Ang R, Oeurng C (2018) Simulating streamflow in an ungauged catchment of Tonlesap lake basin in Cambodia using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. Water Sci 32(1):89–101. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wsj.2017.12.002
Arnold MDJG (1998) Large area hydrologic modeling. J Am Water Resour Assoc 34(1):73–89
Duvvuri S (2018) Hydrological modelling of Cooum river basin using GIS and SWAT model, December, pp 306–311
Easton ZM, Fuka DR, White ED, Collick AS, Biruk Ashagre B, McCartney M, Awulachew SB, Ahmed AA, Steenhuis TS (2010) A multi basin SWAT model analysis of runoff and sedimentation in the Blue Nile, Ethiopia. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 14(10):1827–1841. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-1827-2010
Fohrer, N. (1999). Applying the SWAT model as a decision support tool for land use concepts in peripheral regions in Germany. … the Global Farm. 10 …, pp 994–999. https://topsoil.nserl.purdue.edu/nserlweb-old/isco99/pdf/iscodisc/SustainingtheGlobalFarm/P072-Fohrer.pdf
Gashaw T, Tulu T, Argaw M, Worqlul AW (2018) Modeling the hydrological impacts of land use/land cover changes in the Andassa watershed, Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia. Sci Total Environ 619–620:1394–1408. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.11.191
Gdp B, Proceedings C (2007) Communication à un colloque (conference paper), pp 1–6
Ghoraba SM (2015) Hydrological modeling of the Simly Dam watershed (Pakistan) using GIS and SWAT model. Alex Eng J 54(3):583–594. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aej.2015.05.018
Githui F, Mutua F, Bauwens W (2009) Estimating the impacts of land-cover change on runoff using the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT): case study of Nzoia catchment, Kenya/Estimation des impacts du changement d’occupation du sol sur l’écoulement à l’aide de SWAT: étude du cas du bassi. Hydrol Sci J 54(5):899–908. https://doi.org/10.1623/hysj.54.5.899
Graham LP, Hagemann S, Jaun S, Beniston M (2007) On interpreting hydrological change from regional climate models. Clim Change 81(SUPPL. 1):97–122. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9217-0
Hansen S, Abrahamsen P, Petersen CT, Styczen M (2013) Daisy: model use, calibration, and validation. Trans ASABE 55(4):1317–1335. https://doi.org/10.13031/2013.42244
Holeček M (2001) The BCAA-BCKA cycle: its relation to alanine and glutamine synthesis and protein balance. Nutrition 17(1):70. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0899-9007(00)00483-4
Khalid K, Ali MF, Rahman NFA, Mispan MR, Haron SH, Othman Z, Bachok MF (2016) Sensitivity analysis in watershed model using SUFI-2 algorithm. Procedia Eng 162:441–447. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proeng.2016.11.086
Kushwaha A, Jain MK (2013) Hydrological simulation in a forest dominated watershed in Himalayan region using SWAT model. Water Resour Manag 27(8):3005–3023. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-013-0329-9
Leta OT, El-Kadi AI, Dulai H, Ghazal KA (2018) Assessment of SWAT model performance in simulating daily streamflow under rainfall data scarcity in Pacific island watersheds. Water (Switzerland) 10(11):1–31. https://doi.org/10.3390/w10111533
Meaurio M, Zabaleta A, Uriarte JA, Srinivasan R, Antigüedad I (2015) Evaluation of SWAT models performance to simulate streamflow spatial origin. The case of a small forested watershed. J Hydrol 525:326–334. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.03.050
Moriasi DN, Gitau MW, Pai N, Daggupati P (2015) Hydrologic and water quality models: performance measures and evaluation criteria. Trans ASABE 58(6):1763–1785. https://doi.org/10.13031/trans.58.10715
Nursugi NDK, Windari EH (2016) Hydrological modelling using swat model case study Cimanuk watershed hydrological modelling using SWAT model, September. https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.31372.92801
Quyen NTN, Liem ND, Loi NK (2014) Effect of land use change on water discharge in Srepok watershed, Central Highland, Viet Nam. Int Soil Water Conserv Res 2(3):74–86. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2095-6339(15)30025-3
Schuol J, Abbaspour KC (2007) Using monthly weather statistics to generate daily data in a SWAT model application to West Africa. Ecol Model 201(3–4):301–311. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2006.09.028
Scoping strategic options for development of the Kabul river basin (n.d.)
Semlali I, Ouadif L, Baba K, Akhssas A, Bahi L (2017) Using GIS and SWAT model for hydrological modelling of Oued Laou Watershed (Morocco). ARPN J Eng Appl Sci 12(23):6933–6943
Setegn SG, Srinivasan R, Dargahi B (2008) Hydrological modelling in the lake Tana basin, Ethiopia using SWAT model. Open Hydrol J 2(1):49–62. https://doi.org/10.2174/1874378100802010049
Shrestha MK, Recknagel F, Frizenschaf J, Meyer W (2016) Assessing SWAT models based on single and multi-site calibration for the simulation of flow and nutrient loads in the semi-arid Onkaparinga catchment in South Australia. Agric Water Manag 175:61–71. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2016.02.009
Singh L, Saravanan S, Jennifer J (2018) Assessing impact of land use/land cover changes on stream flow in Noyyal river catchment using ArcSWAT model. In: SWAT international conference, pp 10–12
Stehr A, Debels P, Romero F, Alcayaga H (2008) Hydrological modelling with SWAT under conditions of limited data availability: evaluation of results from a Chilean case study. Hydrol Sci J 53(3):588–601. https://doi.org/10.1623/hysj.53.3.588
Tang FF, Xu HS, Xu ZX (2012) Model calibration and uncertainty analysis for runoff in the Chao River Basin using sequential uncertainty fitting. Procedia Environ Sci 13(2011):1760–1770. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proenv.2012.01.170
Teng J, Chiew FHS, Vaze J, Marvanek S, Kirono DGC (2012) Estimation of climate change impact on mean annual runoff across continental Australia using Budyko and Fu equations and hydrological models. J Hydrometeorol 13(3):1094–1106. https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-11-097.1
Tibebe D, Bewket W (2011) Surface runoff and soil erosion estimation using the SWAT model in the Keleta Watershed, Ethiopia. Land Degrad Dev 22(6):551–564. https://doi.org/10.1002/ldr.1034
Vilaysane B, Takara K, Luo P, Akkharath I, Duan W (2015) Hydrological Stream Flow Modelling for Calibration and Uncertainty Analysis Using SWAT Model in the Xedone River Basin, Lao PDR. Procedia Environ Sci 28(SustaiN 2014):380–390. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proenv.2015.07.047
Viviroli D, Zappa M, Gurtz J, Weingartner R (2009) An introduction to the hydrological modelling system PREVAH and its pre- and post-processing-tools. Environ Model Softw 24(10):1209–1222. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2009.04.001
Winchell M, Srinivasan R, Di Luzio M, Arnold J (2007) ArcSWAT interface for SWAT 2005. User’s guide, pp 1–436
Yuemei H, Xiaoqin Z, Jianguo S, Jina N (2008) Conduction between left superior pulmonary vein and left atria and atria fibrillation under cervical vagal trunk stimulation. Colomb Med 39(3):227–234
Zhang L, Nan Z, Yu W, Ge Y (2015) Modeling land-use and land-cover change and hydrological responses under consistent climate change scenarios in the Heihe river basin, China. Water Resourc Manag 29(13):4701–4717. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-015-1085-9
Zhang X, Srinivasan R, Bosch D (2009) Calibration and uncertainty analysis of the SWAT model using genetic algorithms and Bayesian model averaging. J Hydrol 374(3–4):307–317. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.06.023
Acknowledgements
The authors would like to thank Dr. Wasim Iqbal and Lakhwinder Singh for check and the anonymous reviewers for their insightful suggestions and careful reading of the manuscript.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Aawar, T., Khare, D. Assessment of climate change impacts on streamflow through hydrological model using SWAT model: a case study of Afghanistan. Model. Earth Syst. Environ. 6, 1427–1437 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-020-00759-0
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-020-00759-0