[go: up one dir, main page]
More Web Proxy on the site http://driver.im/ Skip to main content

Advertisement

Springer Nature Link
Log in

Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources and Reservoir Management: Uncertainty and Adaptation for a Mountain Catchment in Northeast Portugal

  • Published:
Water Resources Management Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Reservoirs often play an important role in mitigating water supply problems. However, the implications of climate change are not always considered in reservoir planning and management. This study aimed to address this challenge in the Alto Sabor watershed, northeast Portugal. The study analysed whether or not the shortage of water supply can be effectively addressed through the construction of a new reservoir (two-reservoir system) by considering future climate projections. The hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was calibrated and validated against daily-observed discharge and reservoir volume, with a good agreement between model predictions and observations. Outputs from four General Circulation Models (GCM) for two scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) were statistically downscaled and bias-corrected with ground observations. A general increase in temperature is expected in the future while the change in precipitation is more uncertain as per the differences among climatic models. In general, annual precipitation would slightly decrease while seasonal changes would be more significant, with more precipitation in winter and much less in spring and summer. SWAT simulations suggest that the existence of two-reservoir will better solve the water supply problems under current climate conditions compared to a single-reservoir system. However in the future, the reliability of this solution will decrease, especially due to the variability of projections from the different climatic models. The solution to water supply problems in this region, adopted taking only present-day climate into account, will likely be inefficient for water supply management under future climate conditions.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Subscribe and save

Springer+ Basic
£29.99 /Month
  • Get 10 units per month
  • Download Article/Chapter or eBook
  • 1 Unit = 1 Article or 1 Chapter
  • Cancel anytime
Subscribe now

Buy Now

Price includes VAT (United Kingdom)

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Agroconsultores-COBA (1991) Carta de Solos da Região de Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro (1:100 000). (Soil map from the region Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro), Universidade de Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, Bragança [in Portuguese]

  • APA (2012) Reforço de Abastecimento de Água a Bragança (water supply strengthening plan for Bragança). APA - Agencia Portuguesa do Ambiente (Portuguese Environmental Agency)

  • Arnold JG, Srinivasan R, Muttiah RS, Williams JR (1998) Large area hydrologic modeling and assessment part I: model development. J Am Water Resour Assoc 34:73–89

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Álvarez V, Taboada JJ, Lorenzo MN (2011) Cambio climático en Galicia en el siglo XXI: Tendencias y variabilidad en temperaturas y precipitaciones (Climate Change in Galicia by the XXI century: tendencies and variability in temperatures and precipitation). Revista Avances en Ciencias de la Terra (ACT) 2:65–85

    Google Scholar 

  • Bangash RF, Passuello A, Sanchez-Canales M et al (2013) Ecosystem services in Mediterranean river basin: climate change impact on water provisioning and erosion control. Sci Total Environ 458-460:246–255

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Carvalho-Santos C, Nunes JP, Monteiro AT et al (2016) Assessing the effects of land cover and future climate conditions on the provision of hydrological services in a medium-sized watershed of Portugal. Hydrol Process 30:720–738

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Castro J, de Figueiredo T, Fonseca F et al (2010) Montesinho Natural Park: general description and natural values. In: Evelpidou N, de Figueiredo T, Mauro F, Tecim V (eds) Natural heritage from east to west. Springer - Verlag, Heidelberg, pp 119–132

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Cunha LV, Oliveira R, Nunes V (2002) WaterResources. In: Santos FD, Forbes K, Moita R (eds) Climate change in Portugal scenarios, impacts and adaptation measures—SIAM project. Gradiva Publishers, Lisbon, pp 1–38

    Google Scholar 

  • Cunha LV, Oliveira RP, Nascimento J, Ribeiro L (2005) Impacts of climate change on water resources: a case-study for Portugal. The Fourth Inter-Celtic Colloquim on Hydrology and Management of Water Resources - International Association of Hydrological Sciences, July 11–14, Guimarães, Portugal

  • ECAD (2015) European climate assessment & dataset. Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI). Available online at http://eca.knmi.nl/. Accessed Jan 2015

  • EEA (2003) Water exploitation index. European Environment Agency

  • Falkenmark M, Rockstrom J (2004) Balancing water for humans and nature. Earthscan, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Feng S, Hu Q, Huang W et al (2014) Projected climate regime shift under future global warming from multi-model, multi-scenario CMIP5 simulations. Glob Planet Chang 112:41–52

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Galván L, Olías M, Izquierdo T, Cerón JC (2014) Rainfall estimation in SWAT: an alternative method to simulate orographic precipitation. J Hydrol 509:257–265

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gassman PW, Reyes MR, Green CH, Arnold JG (2007) The soil and water assessment tool: historical development, applications, and future research directions. Trans ASABE 50:1211–1250

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Giorgi F, Lionello P (2008) Climate change projections for the Mediterranean region. Glob Planet Chang 63:90–104

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hurkmans R, Terink W, Uijlenhoet R et al (2010) Changes in streamflow dynamics in the rhine basin under three high-resolution regional climate scenarios. J Climate 23:679–699

  • Hughes SJ, Cabecinha E, Andrade dos Santos JC et al (2012) A predictive modelling tool for assessing climate, land use and hydrological change on reservoir physicochemical and biological properties. Area 44:432–442

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • INE (2016) Instituto Nacional de Estatística (Portuguese National Statistics). Retrieved from: www.ine.pt. Accessed Dec 2016

  • Iglesias A, Garrote L, Diz A et al (2011) Re-thinking water policy priorities in the Mediterranean region in view of climate change. Environ Sci Pol 14:744–757

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • IGN, Instituto Geográfico Nacional de España (Spanish Geographic Institute) (2006) Retrieved from: www.ign.es. Accessed Jan 2015

  • IGP (2007) Carta de Ocupação e Uso do Solo 1990 e 2007 (Land Cover and Use map 1990 and 2007). IGP - Instituto Geográfico Português (Portuguese Geographical Institute). Accessed Jan 2015. [in Portuguese]

  • Jacinto R, Cruz MJ, Santos FD (2013) Development of water use scenarios as a tool for adaptation to climate change. Drink Water Eng Sci 6:61–68

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jacob D, Petersen J, Eggert B et al (2013) EURO-CORDEX: new high-resolution climate change projections for European impact research. Reg Environ Chang 14:563–578

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kundzewicz ZW, Mata LJ, Arnell NW et al (2008) The implications of projected climate change for freshwater resources and their management. Hydrol Sci J 53:3–10

  • Lenderink G, Buishand A, van Deursen W (2007) Estimates of future discharges of the river rhine using two scenario methodologies: direct versus delta approach. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 11:1143–1159

  • Liuzzo L, Noto LV, Arnone E et al (2014) Modifications in water resources availability under climate changes: a case study in a Sicilian Basin. Water Resour Manag 29:1117–1135

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lorenzo-Lacruz J, Vicente-Serrano SM, González-Hidalgo JC et al (2013) Hydrological drought response to meteorological drought in the Iberian Peninsula. Clim Res 58:117–131

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • López-Moreno JI, Zabalza J, Vicente-Serrano SM et al (2014) Impact of climate and land use change on water availability and reservoir management: scenarios in the upper Aragón River, Spanish Pyrenees. Sci Total Environ 493:1222–1231

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lucas MJ (2011) Recenseamento Agrícola 2009 - Práticas agrícolas (Agricultural Inventory 2009 - Management in Agriculture. INE - Instituto Nacional de Estatistica (Statistical National Institute)

  • Martin-Carrasco F, Garrote L (2007) Drought-induced water scarcity in water resources systems. In: Vasiliev OF, van Gelder PHAJM, Plate EJ, Bolgov MV (eds) Extreme hydrological events: new concepts for security. NATO Science Series, pp 301–311

  • Meinshausen M, Smith SJ, Calvin K et al (2011) The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300. Clim Chang 109:213–241

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mereu S, Sušnik J, Trabucco A et al (2016) Operational resilience of reservoirs to climate change, agricultural demand, and tourism: a case study from Sardinia. Sci Total Environ 543:1028–1038

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mesquita S, Sousa AJ (2009) Bioclimatic mapping using geostatistical approaches: application to mainland Portugal. Int J Climatol 29:2156–2170

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Metzger MJ, Bunce RGH, Jongman RHG et al (2005) A climatic stratification of the environment of Europe. Glob Ecol Biogeogr 14:549–563

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Molina-Navarro E, Trolle D, Martínez-Pérez S et al (2014) Hydrological and water quality impact assessment of a Mediterranean limno-reservoir under climate change and land use management scenarios. J Hydrol 509:354–366

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Moriasi DN, Arnold JG, Van Liew MW et al (2007) Model evaluation guidelines for systematic quantification of accuracy in watershed simulations. Trans ASABE 50:885–900

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mourato S, Moreira M, Corte-Real J (2015) Water resources impact assessment under climate change scenarios in Mediterranean watersheds. Water Resour Manag 29:2377–2391

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • NCDC (2015) National climatic data center. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. U. S. Department of Commerce. Available online at http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/. Accessed Jan 2015

  • Neitsch SL, Arnold JG, Kiriny JR, Williams JR (2011) Soil & water assessment tool. Theoretical Documentation. Version 2009. Texas A&M University System, College Station

    Google Scholar 

  • Northrop PJ, Chandler RE (2014) Quantifying sources of uncertainty in projections of future climate. J Clim 27:8793–8808

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nunes JP, Seixas J, Pacheco NR (2008) Vulnerability of water resources, vegetation productivity and soil erosion to climate change in Mediterranean watersheds. Hydrol Process 22:3115–3134

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Panagos P, Meusburger K, Ballabio C et al (2014) Soil erodibility in Europe: a high-resolution dataset based on LUCAS. Sci Total Environ 479-480:189–200

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rossi G, Caporali E, Garrote L (2012) Definition of risk indicators for reservoirs management optimization. Water Resour Manag 26(4):981–996

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Samani Z (2000) Estimating solar radiation and evapotranspiration using minimum climatological data (Hargreaves-Samani equation). J Irrig Drain Eng 126(4):265–277

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Santos RMB, Sanches Fernandes LF, Varandas SGP et al (2015) Impacts of climate change and land-use scenarios on Margaritifera margaritifera, an environmental indicator and endangered species. Sci Total Environ 511:477–488

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shen Y, Oki T, Utsumi N et al (2010) Projection of future world water resources under SRES scenarios: water withdrawal. Hydrol Sci J 53:11–33

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • SNIRH (2015) Sistema Nacional de Informação de Recursos Hídricos (National Hydrological Resources Information System). Portuguese Water Institute (INAG), Lisboa. Retrieved from: snirh.pt. Accessed Jan 2015. [in Portuguese]

  • SRTM (2007) Digital elevation database 90m, v4-1, CGIARCSI – consortium for spatial information available online at http://www.cgiar-csi.org/data/srtm-90m-digital-elevation-database-v4-1. Accessed Jan 2015

  • Thomson AM, Calvin KV, Smith SJ et al (2011) RCP4.5: a pathway for stabilization of radiative forcing by 2100. Clim Chang 109:77–94

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tsakiris G (2015) The status of the European waters in 2015: a review. Environ Process 2:543–557

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • USDA (1986) Urban hydrology for small watersheds. Natural Resources Conservation Service, Conservation Engineering Division, United States Department of Agriculture. Technical release 55

  • Vuuren DP, Edmonds J, Kainuma M et al (2011) The representative concentration pathways: an overview. Clim Chang 109:5–31

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Winchell M, Srinivasan R, Di Luzio M, Arnold JG (2010) ArcSWAT Interface for SWAT2009

  • WRDC (2015) World radiation data center. Available online at http://wrdc-mgo.nrel.gov/. Accessed Jan 2015

Download references

Acknowledgements

This work was funded by FEDER funds through the Operational Programme for Competitiveness Factors - COMPETE and by National Funds through FCT - Foundation for Science and Technology under the project PTDC/AAG-MAA/4539/2012 / FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER-027863 (IND_CHANGE). J.P. Nunes was financially supported by FCT (Portuguese Science Foundation), and the European Social Fund through post-doctoral grant (SFRH/BPD/87571/2012). A.T. Monteiro is supported by FEDER funds through the Operational Programme for Competitiveness Factors - COMPETE and by National Funds through FCT - Foundation for Science and Technology under the UID/BIA/50027/2013 and POCI-01-0145-FEDER-006821. The authors would like to thank the Municipality of Bragança for the datasets on water inflows.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. CESAM – Centro de Estudos do Ambiente e do Mar & Dept. de Ambiente e Planeamento, Universidade de Aveiro, 3810-193, Aveiro, Portugal

    Claudia Carvalho-Santos & João Pedro Nunes

  2. CIBIO/InBio - Centro de Investigação em Biodiversidade e Recursos Genéticos, Universidade do Porto, Campus Agrário Vairão, Rua Padre Armando Quintas, n° 7, 4485-661, Vila do Conde, Portugal

    Claudia Carvalho-Santos, António T. Monteiro & João Pradinho Honrado

  3. CIMO - Centro de Investigação de Montanha & Departamento de Ambiente e Recursos Naturais, Instituto Politécnico de Bragança, 5300-253, Bragança, Portugal

    João C. Azevedo

  4. Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade do Porto, Rua do Campo Alegre, FC4-Biologia, 4169-007, Porto, Portugal

    João Pradinho Honrado

  5. CE3C – Centro de Ecologia, Evolução Alterações Climáticas, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, 1749-016, Lisboa, Portugal

    João Pedro Nunes

Authors
  1. Claudia Carvalho-Santos
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. António T. Monteiro
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. João C. Azevedo
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. João Pradinho Honrado
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. João Pedro Nunes
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Claudia Carvalho-Santos.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Carvalho-Santos, C., Monteiro, A.T., Azevedo, J.C. et al. Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources and Reservoir Management: Uncertainty and Adaptation for a Mountain Catchment in Northeast Portugal. Water Resour Manage 31, 3355–3370 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-017-1672-z

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-017-1672-z

Keywords

Search

Navigation