Abstract
Using the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model (FGOALS) version g1.11, a group of seasonal hindcasting experiments were carried out. In order to investigate the potential predictability of sea surface temperature (SST), singular value decomposition (SVD) analyses were applied to extract dominant coupled modes between observed and predicated SST from the hindcasting experiments in this study. The fields discussed are sea surface temperature anomalies over the tropical Pacific basin (20°S-20°N, 120°E-80°W), respectively starting in four seasons from 1982 to 2005. On the basis of SVD analysis, the simulated pattern was replaced with the corresponding observed pattern to reconstruct SST anomaly fields to improve the ability of the simulation. The predictive skill, anomaly correlation coefficients (ACC), after systematic error correction using the first five modes was regarded as potential predictability. Results showed that: 1) the statistical postprocessing approach was effective for systematic error correction; 2) model error sources mainly arose from mode 2 extracted from the SVD analysis—that is, during the transition phase of ENSO, the model encountered the spring predictability barrier; and 3) potential predictability (upper limits of predictability) could be high over most of the tropical Pacific basin, including the tropical western Pacific and an extra 10-degrees region of the mid and eastern Pacific.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Barnett, T. P., and R. Preisendorfer, 1987: Origins and levels of monthly and seasonal forecast skill for United States surface air temperatures determined by canonical correlation analysis. Mon. Wea. Rev., 115, 1825–1850.
Bettge, T. W., J. W. Weatherly, W. M. Washington, D. Pollard, B. P. Briegleb, and W. G. Strand, Jr, 1996: The CSM Sea Ice Model. NCAR Technical Note NCAR/TN-425+STR, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, 27pp.
Bonan, G. B., K. W. Oleson, M. Vertenstein, S. Levis, X. Zeng, Y. Dai, R. E. Dickinson, and Z.-L. Yang, 2002: The land surface climatology of the community land model coupled to the NCAR community climate model. J. Climate, 15, 3123–3149.
Bretherton, C. S., C. Smith, and J. M. Wallace, 1992: An intercomparison of methods for finding coupled patterns in climate data. J. Climate, 5, 541–560.
Chen, D., S. E. Zebiak, M. A. Cane, and A. J. Busalacchi, 1997: Initialization and predictability of a coupled ENSO forecast model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 773–788.
Collins, W. D., and Coauthors, 2003: Description of the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model (CAM2). NCAR Technical Notes, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, 189pp.
DeWitt, D. G., 2005: Retrospective forecasts of interannual sea surface temperature anomalies from 1982 to present using a directly coupled atmospheric-ocean general circulation model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 133, 2972–2995.
Duan, A. M., and H. B. Wu, 1998: POP Analysis of Global Tropical SSTA. Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology, 21, 61–69. (in Chinese)
Feddersen, H., A. Navarra, and M. N. Ward, 1999: Reduction of model systematic error by statistical correction for dynamical seasonal predictions. J. Climate, 12, 1974–1989.
Graham, N. E., P. Barnett, R. Wilde, M. Ponater, and S. Schubert, 1994: On the roles of tropical and midlatitude SSTs in forcing interannual to interdecadal variability in the winter Northern Hemisphere circulation. J. Climate, 7, 1416–1441.
Guilyardi, E., 2006: El Niño-mean state—Seasonal cycle interactions in a multimodel ensemble. Climate Dyn., 26, 329–348.
Hasselmann, K., 1988: PIPs and POPs: The reduction of complex dynamical systems using principal interaction and oscillation patterns. J. Geophys. Res., 93, 11051–11021.
Jin, E. K., and Coauthors, 2008: Current status of ENSO prediction skill in coupled ocean-atmosphere models. Climate Dyn., 31, 647–664.
Kang, I. S., and J. Y. Lee, 2004: Potential predictability of summer mean precipitation in a dynamical seasonal prediction system with systematic error correction. J. Climate, 17, 834–844.
Li, L., B. Wang, Y. Wang, and H. Wan, 2007: Improvements in climate simulation with modifications to the Tiedtke convective parameterization in the gridpoint atmospheric model of IAP LASG (GAMIL). Adv. Atmos. Sci., 24, 323–335, doi: 10.1007/s00376-007-0323-3.
Liu, H., X. Zhang, W. Li, Y. Yu, and R. Yu, 2004: An eddy-permitting oceanic general circulation model and its preliminary evaluation. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 21, 675–690.
Luo, J.-J., S. Masson, S. Behera, S. Shingu, and T. Yamagata, 2005: Seasonal climate predictability in a coupled OAGCM using a different approach for ensemble forecasts, J. Climate, 18, 4474–4497.
Mechoso, C. R., and Coauthors, 1995: The seasonal cycle over the tropical Pacific in coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models. Mon. Wea. Rev., 123, 2825–2838.
Moore, A. M., and R. Kleeman, 1996: The dynamics of error growth and predictability in a coupled model of ENSO. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 122, 1405–1446.
Oberhuber, J. M., E. Roeckner, M. Christoph, M. Esch, and M. Latif, 1998: Predicting the’ 97 El Niñno event with a global climate model. Geophys. Res. Lett., 25, 2273–2276.
Palmer, T. N., and Coauthors, 2004: Development of a European multimodel ensemble system for seasonal-to-interannual prediction (DEMETER). Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 85, 853–872.
Rayner, N. A., D. E. Parker, E. B. Horton, C. K. Folland, L. V. Alexander, D. P. Rowell, E.C. Kent, and A. Kaplan, 2006: UKMO-GISST/MOHMATN4/MOHSST-6-Global Ice coverage and SST (1856–2006). UK Meteorological Office. [Available online from http://badc.nerc. ac.uk/data/gisst/]
Reynolds, R. W., N. A. Rayner, T. M. Smith, D. C. Stokes, and W. Wang, 2002: An improved in situ and satellite SST analysis for climate. J. Climate, 15, 1609–1625.
Rosati, A., K. Miyakoda, and R. Gudgel, 1997: The impact of ocean initial conditions on ENSO forecasting with a coupled model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 754–772.
Schneider, E. K., B. Huang, Z. Zhu, D. G. DeWitt, J. L. Kinter III, B. P. Kirtman, and J. Shukla, 1999: Ocean data assimilation, initialization, and predictions of ENSO with a coupled GCM. Mon. Wea. Rev., 127, 1187–1207.
von Storch, H., T. Bruns, I. F. Bruns, and K. Hasselmann, 1988: Principal oscillation pattern analysis of the 30- to 60-day oscillation in general circulation model equatorial troposphere. J. Geophys. Res., 93, 11022–11036.
Wang, B., H. Wan, Z. Ji, X. Zhang, R. Yu, Y. Yu, and H. Liu, 2004: Design of a new dynamical core for global atmospheric models based on some efficient numerical methods. Science in China, 47, 4–21.
Wang, B., and Coauthors, 2009: Advance and prospectus of seasonal prediction: Assessment of the APCC/CliPAS 14-model ensemble retrospective seasonal prediction (1980–2004). Climate Dyn., 33, 93–117.
Ward, M. N., and A. Navarra, 1997: Pattern analysis of SST-forced variability in ensemble GCM simulations: Examples over Europe and the tropical Pacific. J. Climate, 10, 2210–2220.
Webster, P. J., and S. Yang, 1992: Monsoon and ENSO: Selectively interactive systems. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 118, 825–877.
Weiss, J. P., and J. B. Weiss, 1999: Quantifying persistence in ENSO. J. Atmos. Sci., 56, 2737–2760.
Xu, J. S., 1992: On the relationship between the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation and the tropospheric southern oscillation. J. Atmos. Sci., 49, 725–734.
Xue, Y., M. A. Cane, S. E. Zebiak, and M. B. Blumenthal, 1994: On the prediction of ENSO: A study with a low order Markov model. Tellus, 46A, 512–528.
Yan, L., Y. Q. Yu, B. Wang, L. J. Li, and P. X. Wang, 2009: ENSO Hindcast experiments using a coupled GCM. Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 2, 1–7.
Yu, Y., R. Yu, X. Zhang, and H. Liu, 2002: A flexible coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 19, 169–190.
Yu, Y., X. Zhang, and Y. Guo, 2004: Global coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models in LASG/IAP. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 21, 444–455.
Yu, Y. Q., W. P. Zheng, X. H. Zhang, and H. L. Liu, 2007: LASG Coupled Climate System Model FGCM-1.0. Chinese Journal of Geophysics, 50, 1677–1687. (in Chinese)
Zhang, X. H., Y. Q. Yu, and H. L. Liu, 2003: The development and application of the oceanic general circulation models Part I. The global oceanic general circulation models. Chinese J. Atmos. Sci., 27, 607–617. (in Chinese)
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Yan, L., Wang, P., Yu, Y. et al. Potential predictability of sea surface temperature in a coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 27, 921–936 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-009-9062-y
Received:
Revised:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-009-9062-y