Abstract
In safety, reliability as well as risk analysis and management, information often is uncertain and imprecise. The approach to air incident analysis under uncertain and imprecise information presented in our paper is inspired by the possibility theory. Notably, in such analyses these are both: static and dynamic components that have to be included. As part of this work, static analysis of a serious incident has been performed. In order to do this, probability scale which is based on fuzzy set theory has been given. The scenarios of transformation of incident into accident have been found and their fuzzy probabilities have been calculated. Finally, it has been shown that elimination of one of premises for transformation of the incident into accident significantly reduces the possibility of this transformation.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Aven, T., Zio, E.: Some considerations on the treatment of uncertainties in risk assessment for practical decision making. Reliability Engineering and System Safety 96, 64–74 (2011)
Babczyński, T., Łukowicz, M., Magott, J.: Time coordination of distance protections using probabilistic fault trees with time dependencies. IEEE Transaction on Power Delivery 25(3), 1402–1409 (2010)
Blom, H., Corker, K., Stroeve, S.: On the integration of human performance and collision risk simulation models of runway operation. National Aerospace Laboratory NLR, Report NLR-TP-2006-682 (2006)
Brooker, P.: Air Traffic Management accident risk. Part 1: The limits of realistic modelling. Safety Science 44, 419–450 (2006)
Civil Aviation Authority, Air Traffic Safety Requirements CAP 670, CAA Safety Regulation Group (2012)
Kacprzyk, J.: Fuzzy Sets in Systems Analysis. National Scientific Publishers, Warsaw (1986) (in Polish)
Kenarangui, R.: Event-tree analysis by fuzzy probability. IEEE Transactions on Reliability 40(1), 120–124 (1991)
Klich, E.: Flight Safety in Air Transport, Exploitation Problems Library, Exploitation Technology Institute - PIB, Radom (2011) (in Polish)
Magott, J., Skrobanek, S.: Timing analysis of safety properties using fault trees with time dependencies and timed state-charts. Reliability Engineering and Systems Safety 97(1), 14–26 (2012)
Onisawa, T., Kacprzyk, J. (eds.): Reliability and Safety Analysis under Fuzziness. Physica-Verlag, Springer, Heidelberg (1995)
Rajati, M.R., Mendel, J.M., Wu, D.: Solving Zadeh’s Magnus challenge problem on linguistic probabilities via linguistic weighted averages. In: IEEE Int. Conf. Fuzzy Systems, FUZZ, June 27-30 (2011)
Rutkowska, D., Piliński, M., Rutkowski, L.: Neural Networks, Genetic Algorithms and Fuzzy Systems. Scientific Publishers PWN, Warsaw-Lodz (1997) (in Polish)
Safety Management Manual (SMM), 1st edn. International Civil Aviation Organization, Doc 9859, AN/460 (2006)
Shortle, J., Xie, Y., Chen, C., Donohue, G.: Simulating Collision Probabilities of Landing Airplanes at Non-towered Airports. Transactions of the Society for Computer Simulation 79(10), 1–17 (2003)
Skorupski, J.: Method of analysis of the relation between serious incident and accident in air traffic. In: Berenguer, Grall, Soares (eds.) Advances in Safety, Reliability and Risk Management, pp. 2393–2401. Taylor & Francis Group (2012)
Tanaka, H., Fan, L.T., Lai, F.S., Toguchi, K.: Fault-tree analysis by fuzzy probability. IEEE Transactions on Reliability 32(5), 453–457 (1983)
Tyagi, S.K., Pandey, D., Tyagi, R.: Fuzzy set theoretic approach to fault tree analysis. International Journal of Engineering, Science and Technology 2(5), 276–283 (2010)
Urząd Lotnictwa Cywilnego (Civil Aviation Authority of the Republic of Poland): Statement No. 78 of President of Civil Aviation Authority from 18th of September 2009 on air event No. 344/07, Warszawa (2009) (in Polish)
Weather Underground Internet Service, http://polish.wunderground.com
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2013 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
About this paper
Cite this paper
Lower, M., Magott, J., Skorupski, J. (2013). Air Traffic Incidents Analysis with the Use of Fuzzy Sets. In: Rutkowski, L., Korytkowski, M., Scherer, R., Tadeusiewicz, R., Zadeh, L.A., Zurada, J.M. (eds) Artificial Intelligence and Soft Computing. ICAISC 2013. Lecture Notes in Computer Science(), vol 7894. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-38658-9_28
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-38658-9_28
Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
Print ISBN: 978-3-642-38657-2
Online ISBN: 978-3-642-38658-9
eBook Packages: Computer ScienceComputer Science (R0)