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Predicting the height of the water-conducting fractured zone using multiple regression analysis and GIS

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Abstract

The water-conducting fractured zone induced by mining under aquifers is channels for water and sand inrushes. A method based on multiple regression analysis and a geographic information system (GIS) is proposed to predict the height of the water-conducting fractured zone in this paper. Five main indicators are found to control the height of the water-conducting fractured zone during fully mechanized caving mining under aquifers in which the thickness of the coal seam is more than 3 m: thickness of the coal seam, proportion of hard rock, length of the panel, mined depth and dip angle. The height of water-conducting fractured zone and the predictive variables from eighteen coal mines in China are investigated. Based on information entropy theory, a nonlinear multiple regression model and the weight of the indicators are considered, and the nonlinear multiple regression model is used in the GIS. Then, the approach is validated with a case study of the Xiegou Coalmine in the Shanxi province of China, in which the thickness of the coal seam which is under aquifers is more than 3 m. Error analysis of the approach is calculated with different hydrogeology classification. The results indicate that this model is a useful tool for predicting and analyzing the height of the water-conducting fractured zone, since the height of the water-conducting fractured zone can be quantitatively calculated and visualized.

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Acknowledgements

The authors would like to acknowledge financial support from the National Key R&D Program of China under Grant No. 2017YFC0804101. We would also like to thank the Shanxi Xishan Jinxing Energy Corporation Ltd. for providing data support.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Resources and Geosciences, China University of Mining and Technology, 1 University Rd, Xuzhou, 221116, Jiangsu, China

    Yong Liu, Shichong Yuan, Jiawei Liu & Zhaoyong Ye

  2. North China Engineering Investigation Institute Co., Ltd, No 39, Huitong Rd, Shijiazhuang, 050021, China

    Shichong Yuan

  3. School of Civil Engineering, Xuchang University, No. 88 Bayi Rd, Xuchang, 461000, Henan, China

    Binbin Yang

  4. Institute of Mine Water Hazards Prevention and Controlling Technology, China University of Mining and Technology, 1 University Rd, Xuzhou, 221116, Jiangsu, China

    Binbin Yang

  5. Xiegou Coal Mine, Shanxi Xishan Jinxing Energy Corporation Ltd, Shanxi Lvliang, 033600, China

    Zhaoyong Ye

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  1. Yong Liu
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Correspondence to Shichong Yuan or Jiawei Liu.

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Liu, Y., Yuan, S., Yang, B. et al. Predicting the height of the water-conducting fractured zone using multiple regression analysis and GIS. Environ Earth Sci 78, 422 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-019-8429-3

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