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Ionospheric Precursors of Magnetic Storms. 3. Analysis of Juliusruh Station Data

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Abstract

The F2-layer critical frequency foF2 is analyzed for three days preceding a magnetic storm based on Juliusruh station data. A total of 272 storms over the period 1976–2010 are considered, and 2682 events (foF2 deviations from quiet conditions) are found. There were 2007 deviations with positive signs and 675 deviations with negative signs. It was found that the aforementioned deviations demonstrate a well-pronounced and statistically significant dependence on the magnetic-storm intensity (the minimal value of the Dst index), the solar-activity level (the F10.7 index), and the season. The highest probability of the occurrence of the indicated deviations is observed 4–12 and 22–23 h prior to the moment of storm onset (SO). Moreover, the occurrence of these deviations is most probable when the SO moment occurs at 0400, 0700–0800, 1200–1300, and 2200 LT. The results agree well with authors’ previously published results with the Slough data and indicate that the discovered deviations are not casual foF2 fluctuations (Q disturbances) but are related to the coming magnetic storm, i.e., they are its precursors.

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REFERENCES

  1. Danilov, A.D. and Konstantinova, A.V., Ionospheric precursors of geomagnetic storms. 1. A review of the problem, Geomagn. Aeron. (Engl. Transl.), 2019, vol. 59, no. 5, pp. 554–566.

  2. Konstantinova, A.V. and Danilov, A.D., Ionospheric precursors of magnetic storms. 2. Analysis of Slough station data, Geomagn. Aeron. (Engl. Transl.), 2020, vol. 60, no. 3, pp. 311–317.

  3. Leshchinskaya, T.Yu. and Mikhailov, V.V., SIMP-1 model: Mapping of foF2 monthly medians over the Northern Hemisphere, Geomagn. Aeron. (Engl. Transl.), 2016, vol. 56, no. 6, pp. 733–741.

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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

The data on the critical frequencies foF2 were taken from the site of Space Weather Services, Sydney, Australia, and the site of the SPIDR databank. The authors thank V.V. Mikhailov for the program for the calculation of quiet conditions with the local model created for the forecasting model SIMP.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Applied Geophysics, 129128, Moscow, Russia

    A. V. Konstantinova & A. D. Danilov

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  1. A. V. Konstantinova
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  2. A. D. Danilov
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Correspondence to A. V. Konstantinova or A. D. Danilov.

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Translated by A. Danilov

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Konstantinova, A.V., Danilov, A.D. Ionospheric Precursors of Magnetic Storms. 3. Analysis of Juliusruh Station Data. Geomagn. Aeron. 61, 341–348 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1134/S0016793221030087

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/S0016793221030087