Abstract
Assessing the influences of land use change (LUC) and climate change (CC) on hydrological processes is of great significance in water resources management. The primary aim of this study is to conduct a quantitative evaluation of the contribution of both LUC and CC on the runoff change within the Kaidu River Basin, Xinjiang. In detail, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is constructed based on GIS technology to carry out month-by-month runoff simulation. Then, the simulated runoff of the Kaidu River Basin from 1957 to 2007 is calibrated and validated using the SWAT-CUP software. The contributions of both CC and LUC to runoff can be achieved through the utilization of empirical equations. Results show that: (i) in the calibration period, the SWAT model exhibits a coefficient of determination (R2) value of 0.76 and a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) value of 0.70, whereas in the validation phase, the corresponding values are 0.63 and 0.61, respectively. (ii) the contribution rates of CC and LUC to runoff variation are 55.8% and 44.2%, respectively. Therefore, CC is the main driving force causing an increase in the runoff in the Kaidu River. Findings are helpful for providing strategies for future prediction and management of water resources in the Kaidu River Basin.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Barnett TP, Adam JC, Lettenmaier DP (2005) Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions. Nature (London) 438(7066):303–309
Chen Z, Zhu R, Yin Z, Feng Q, Yang L, Wang L, Lu R, Fang C (2022) Hydrological response to future climate change in a mountainous watershed in the Northeast of Tibetan Plateau. J Hydrol Regional Stud 44:399–408
Chen H, Fleskens L, Baartman J, Wang F, Moolenaar S, Ritsema C (2020) Impacts of land use change and climatic effects on streamflow in the Chinese Loess Plateau: a meta-analysis. Sci Total Environ 703:134989
Deng W, Song J, Sun H, Cheng D, Zhang X, Liu J, Kong F, Wang H, Khan AJ (2020) Isolating of climate and land surface contribution to basin runoff variability: a case study from the Weihe River Basin, China. Ecol Eng 153:105904
Gao C, Liu L, Ma D, He K, Xu XP (2019) Assessing responses of hydrological processes to climate change over the southeastern Tibetan Plateau based on resampling of future climate scenarios. Sci Total Environ 664:737–752
Ghaffari G, Keesstra S, Ghodousi J, Ahmadi H (2010) SWAT-simulated hydrological impact of land-use change in the Zanjanrood Basin, Northwest Iran. Hydrol Process 24:892–903
Lin B, Chen X, Yao H, Chen Y, Liu M, Gao L, James A (2015) Analyses of land use change impacts on catchment runoff using different time indicators based on SWAT model. Ecol Ind 58:55–63
Mfwango LH, Ayenew T, Mahoo HF (2022) Impacts of climate and land use/cover changes on streamflow at Kibungo sub-catchment, Tanzania. Heliyon 8:e11285
Mitiku AB, Meresa GA, Mulu T, Woldemichael AT (2023) Examining the impacts of climate variabilities and land use change on hydrological responses of Awash River basin, Ethiopia. HydroResearch 6:16–28
Sharma A, Patel PL, Sharma PJ (2020) Influence of climate and land-use changes on the sensitivity of SWAT model parameters and water availability in a semi-arid river basin. CATENA 215:106298
Tumsa BC, Kenea G, Tola B (2022) The application of SWAT+ model to quantify the impacts of sensitive LULC changes on water balance in Guder catchment, Oromia, Ethiopia. Heliyon 8:e12569
Wang Q, Xu Y, Wang Y, Zhang Y, Xiang J, Xu Y, Wang J (2020) Individual and combined impacts of future land-use and climate conditions on extreme hydrological events in a representative basin of the Yangtze River Delta, China. Atmos Res 236:104805
Zakizadeh H, Ahmadi H, Zehtabian G, Moeini A, Moghaddamnia A (2020) A novel study of SWAT and ANN models for runoff simulation with application on dataset of metrological stations. Phys Chem Earth 120:102899
Zhang X, Yang H, Zhang W, Fenicia F, Peng H, Xu G (2022) Hydrologic impacts of cascading reservoirs in the middle and lower Hanjiang River basin under climate variability and land use change. J Hydrol Regional Stud 44:101253
Acknowledgements
This research was supported by Xiamen Natural Science Foundation Youth Project (3502Z20227071) and Research Start-up Project for High-level Talents of Xiamen University of Technology (YKJ22011R).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2024 The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG
About this paper
Cite this paper
Shen, Y., Gao, P.P. (2024). Assessing the Influences of Land Use Change and Climate Change on Runoff in Kaidu River Basin Based on Swat Model. In: Huang, G., Li, Y., Chen, C., Zhang, P. (eds) 14th International Conference on Environmental Science and Development (ICESD2023). ICESD 2023. Environmental Science and Engineering. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-56056-9_15
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-56056-9_15
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-031-56055-2
Online ISBN: 978-3-031-56056-9
eBook Packages: Earth and Environmental ScienceEarth and Environmental Science (R0)