Abstract
Exploring the key technology evolution paths in specific technological domains is essential to stimulate the technological innovation of enterprises. There have been many methods to identify the technology evolution path, but many of them still had some limitations. Firstly, many studies consider only a single type of data source without analyzing and comparing multiple data sources, which may lead to incomplete evolution paths. Secondly, the text mining methods ignore the semantic relationships between technical terms, making path tracing inaccurate. In this study, we develop an integrated approach for mapping the technology evolution paths of scientific papers and patents. To better forecast the technology development trends, the gap analysis between scientific papers and patents and the identification of potential topics are also applied. The all-solid-state lithium-ion battery technology is selected for the empirical study and the related technology evolution trends and the technology opportunities are focused on. The empirical case research results show the proposed method’s validity and feasibility. This method can be helpful for understanding and analyzing the specific technology, which provides clues for forecasting technology development trends in enterprises. Furthermore, it contributes to the coordination of research and development efforts, which provides a reference for enterprises to identify technology innovation opportunities.
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Acknowledgements
This research was supported by Henan Xing Culture Project Cultural Research Special Project (No. 2022XWH082); Henan Province universities key research project funding program(No.24A630033); Henan Province Soft Science Project supported by Department of Science and Technology of Henan Province; National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 62173253).
Funding
This research was supported by Henan Xing Culture Project Cultural Research Special Project (No. 2022XWH082); Henan Province universities key research project funding program(No.24A630033); Henan Province Soft Science Project supported by Department of Science and Technology of Henan Province; National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 62173253).
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All authors contributed to the study conception and design. Related Work, refinement of the manuscript framework and post revision were completed by Lecturer Peng Liu. The first draft of the manuscript was written by Wei Zhou. Research methodology, and resources were performed by Prof. Lijie Feng. The supervision and funding acquisition were performed by Prof. Jinfeng Wang. The methodology and writing—review and Editing were written by Prof. Kuo-yi Lin. The algorithm design and optimization were completed by Xuan Wu. The Empirical data and results analysis were searched by Dingtang Zhang. All authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript and all authors read and approved the final manuscript.
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Liu, P., Zhou, W., Feng, L. et al. Mapping and comparing the technology evolution paths of scientific papers and patents: an integrated approach for forecasting technology trends. Scientometrics 129, 1975–2005 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11192-024-04961-0
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11192-024-04961-0