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The Alpine snow-albedo feedback in regional climate models

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Abstract

The effect of the snow-albedo feedback (SAF) on 2m temperatures and their future changes in the European Alps is investigated in the ENSEMBLES regional climate models (RCMs) with a focus on the spring season. A total of 14 re-analysis-driven RCM experiments covering the period 1961–2000 and 10 GCM-driven transient climate change projections for 1950–2099 are analysed. A positive springtime SAF is found in all RCMs, but the range of the diagnosed SAF is large. Results are compared against an observation-based SAF estimate. For some RCMs, values very close to this estimate are found; other models show a considerable overestimation of the SAF. Net shortwave radiation has the largest influence of all components of the energy balance on the diagnosed SAF and can partly explain its spatial variability. Model deficiencies in reproducing 2m temperatures above snow and ice and associated cold temperature biases at high elevations seem to contribute to a SAF overestimation in several RCMs. The diagnosed SAF in the observational period strongly influences the estimated SAF contribution to twenty first century temperature changes in the European Alps. This contribution is subject to a clear elevation dependency that is governed by the elevation-dependent change in the number of snow days. Elevations of maximum SAF contribution range from 1500 to 2000 m in spring and are found above 2000 m in summer. Here, a SAF contribution to the total simulated temperature change between 0 and 0.5 °C until 2099 (multi-model mean in spring: 0.26 °C) or 0 and 14 % (multi-model mean in spring: 8 %) is obtained for models showing a realistic SAF. These numbers represent a well-funded but only approximate estimate of the SAF contribution to future warming, and a remaining contribution of model-specific SAF misrepresentations cannot be ruled out.

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Acknowledgments

The ENSEMBLES data used in this work was funded by the EU FP6 Integrated Project ENSEMBLES (Contract No. 505539) whose support is gratefully acknowledged. This research was partly funded by the Swiss National Science Foundation through the SNSF Sinergia project CRSII2_136279 “The Evolution of Mountain Permafrost in Switzerland” (TEMPS).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science ETH, Zurich, Switzerland

    Kevin J. -P. M. Winter, Sven Kotlarski & Christoph Schär

  2. Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss, Zurich-Airport, Switzerland

    Sven Kotlarski & Simon C. Scherrer

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  1. Kevin J. -P. M. Winter
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  2. Sven Kotlarski
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Correspondence to Sven Kotlarski.

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Winter, K.J.P.M., Kotlarski, S., Scherrer, S.C. et al. The Alpine snow-albedo feedback in regional climate models. Clim Dyn 48, 1109–1124 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3130-7

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